API Key:
AAPL Apple Inc
Update date: 2021-Jun-21 Price:
Average volume:
Operating country:
Industry:
Some important information
Override assumption cells? Yes
Reporting currency: USD
Number of outstanding shares 16,688
Low quartile 40%
High quartile 60%
Low
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Hide all models? No
130.5 USD
67,667,370
United States
Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals
Explanation
If 'Yes', we adjust yellow cells' values when the ticker changes
millions
Used in sensitivity analysis
Used in sensitivity analysis
High
5.0%
Choose 'Yes' (after starting the add-in once) if you just need financial data to bu
models. Please build your models in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing shee
ge & Peripherals
s' values when the ticker changes
he add-in once) if you just need financial data to build
odels in new sheets, DO NOT modify existing sheets
Balance Sheet
His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2016
Cash and cash equivalents 20,484
Trade accounts receivable 15,754
Short-term investments 46,671
Inventories 2,132
Prepaid expenses -
Other current assets 8,283
Current assets 93,324
Property Plant And Equipment 27,010
Initial value 61,245
Accumulated depreciation (34,235)
Long-term investments 170,430
Goodwill 5,414
Other intangible assets 3,206
Other long-term assets 22,302
Non-current assets 228,362
Total assets 321,686
Trade accounts payable 37,294
Short-term loans & liabilities 8,105
Accrued expenses 20,951
Current Portion of LT Debt/Capital Leases 3,500
Other current liabilities 9,156
Current liabilities 79,006
Long-term debts 75,427
Other liabilities 39,004
Total liabilities 193,437
Charter capital 31,251
Additional paid in capital -
Retained earnings 96,364
Treasury stock -
Other common equity adjustment 634
Common equity 128,249
Minority interest -
Total equity 128,249
Days sales outstanding (DSO) 27
Days payable outstanding (DPO) 104
Days inventory outstanding (DIO) 6
BS check -
Income Statement
His
(USD in millions)
Sep-2016
Revenue 215,639
Cost of goods sold (131,376)
Gross profits 84,263
Selling, G&A expenses (14,194)
Research & Development (10,045)
Net other income/(expense) (1,195)
Depreciation & amortisation 10,505
EBITDA 69,334
Net financial income/(expense) 2,543
Profit before tax 61,372
Corporate income tax (15,685)
Net profit after tax 45,687
Sales growth n/a
COGS growth n/a
Gross margin 39.08%
EBITDA margin 32.15%
SG&A/Revenue -6.58%
Net margin 21.19%
Effective tax rate 25.56%
Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020
20,289 25,913 48,844 38,016
17,874 23,186 22,926 16,120
53,892 40,388 51,713 52,927
4,855 3,956 4,106 4,061
- - - -
13,936 12,087 12,352 11,264
110,846 105,530 139,941 122,388
33,783 41,304 37,378 45,336
75,076 90,403 95,957 112,096
(41,293) (49,099) (58,579) (66,760)
194,714 170,799 105,341 100,887
- - - -
- - - -
35,976 48,092 55,856 55,277
264,473 260,195 198,575 201,500
375,319 365,725 338,516 323,888
44,242 55,888 46,236 42,296
11,977 11,964 5,980 4,996
- - - 1,436
6,496 8,784 10,260 8,797
38,099 39,293 43,242 47,867
100,814 115,929 105,718 105,392
97,207 93,735 91,807 98,667
43,251 48,914 50,503 54,490
241,272 258,578 248,028 258,549
35,867 40,201 45,174 50,779
- - - -
98,330 70,400 45,898 14,966
- - - -
(150) (3,454) (584) (406)
134,047 107,147 90,488 65,339
- - - -
134,047 107,147 90,488 65,339
28 32 32 21
114 125 104 91
13 9 9 9
- - - -
Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020
229,234 265,595 260,174 274,515
(141,048) (163,756) (161,782) (169,559)
88,186 101,839 98,392 104,956
(15,261) (16,705) (18,245) (19,916)
(11,581) (14,236) (16,217) (18,752)
(133) (441) 422 (87)
10,157 10,903 12,547 11,056
71,368 81,360 76,899 77,257
2,878 2,446 1,385 890
64,089 72,903 65,737 67,091
(15,738) (11,872) (10,481) (9,680)
48,351 61,031 55,256 57,411
Average
6% 16% -2% 6%
7% 16% -1% 5%
38.47% 38.34% 37.82% 38.23% 38.39%
31.13% 30.63% 29.56% 28.14% 30.32%
-6.66% -6.29% -7.01% -7.25% -6.76%
21.09% 22.98% 21.24% 20.91% 21.48%
24.56% 16.28% 15.94% 14.43% 19.35%
formula
formula
fill
fill
formula
fill
formula
fill
formula
Discounted Cash Flow 5Y Growth Exit
Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6% - 8.3% 7.13%
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5% 4.00%
Fair Price 84.84 - 432.97 140.97
Upside -35% - 231.9% 8.1%
Upside
8.1%
Stock Price
130.46 USD
Fair Price
140.97 USD
0
Revenue & Expenses Forecast
Projectio
(USD in millions)
Sep-2020 Sep-2021 Sep-2022
Revenue 274,515 310,922 325,774
% Growth 6% 13% 5%
Cost of goods sold (169,559) (188,206) (193,252)
% of Revenue 62% 61% 59%
Selling, G&A expenses (19,916) (22,557) (23,635)
% of Revenue 7% 7% 7%
Research & Development (18,752) (21,239) (22,253)
% of Revenue 7% 7% 7%
Net interest incomes/expe 890 1,008 1,056
% of Revenue 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Other incomes/expenses (87) (99) (103)
% of Revenue 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tax expense (9,680) (13,000) (14,263)
Tax rate 14% 16% 16%
Net profit 57,411 66,830 73,324
% Margin 21% 21% 23%
Projections
Sep-2023 Sep-2024 Sep-2025
343,348 371,009 394,329
5% 8% 6%
(199,603) (211,370) (220,163)
58% 57% 56%
(24,910) (26,917) (28,608)
7% 7% 7%
(23,454) (25,343) (26,936)
7% 7% 7%
1,113 1,203 1,278
0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
(109) (118) (125)
0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
(15,696) (17,663) (19,505)
16% 16% 16%
80,689 90,801 100,270
24% 24% 25%
Change in Working Capital Forecast
(USD in millions except days)
Historical Avg Sep-2020
Days receivables 28
Trade receivables 16,120
Days payables 107
Trade payables (42,296)
Days inventory 9
Inventory 4,061
Net working capital (22,115)
Change in NWC
Capital Expenditure Plan
(USD in millions)
Capex
% of Revenue
5y Avg
Capex 11,260
% of Revenue 4.6%
Depreciation & Amortization Schedule
Average useful life (years): 5
(USD in millions)
For CAPEX in
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
Total depreciation & amortization
Projections
Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024
28 27 26 27
24,266 24,421 24,232 27,651
107 101 99 102
(54,989) (53,300) (54,387) (59,216)
9 9 9 9
4,610 4,756 4,861 5,176
(26,113) (24,123) (25,294) (26,390)
(3,998) 1,989 (1,171) (1,096)
Projections
Sep-2021 Sep-2022 Sep-2023 Sep-2024
14,331 15,015 15,825 17,100
4.6% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6%
Historical
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019
12,734 12,451 13,313 10,495
5.9% 5.4% 5.0% 4.0%
Projections
2021 2022 2023 2024
2,490
2,663 2,663
2,099 2,099 2,099
1,462 1,462 1,462 1,462
2,866 2,866 2,866 2,866
3,003 3,003 3,003
3,165 3,165
3,420
11,580 12,093 12,595 13,916
Sep-2025
27
28,926
101
(60,797)
9
5,390
(26,480)
(91)
Sep-2025
18,175
4.6%
Sep-2020
7,309
2.7%
2025
2,866
3,003
3,165
3,420
3,635
16,089
-
-
-
-
-
2,490
5,325
6,297
5,847
14,331
15,015
15,825
17,100
18,175
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Weighted Average Cost of Capital
Category Low High
Long-term bond rate 1.42% 1.92%
Equity market risk premium 4.72% 5.72%
Adjusted beta 1.00 1.06
Additional risk adjustments 0.00% 0.50%
Cost of equity 6.15% 8.50%
Tax rate 16.15% 19.59%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
Cost of debt 4.00% 4.50%
After-tax WACC 6.01% 8.25%
Selected WACC 7.13%
Detailed calculations
Tax rate
Historical tax rate
Low tax rate
High tax rate
Selected tax rate
Cost of debt
Method 1 (effective interest rate)
(USD in millions)
Interest expense
Total debt
Effective interest rate
Cost of debt 1
(average effective interest rates)
Method 2 (using synthetic ratings)
TTM EBIT
(/) TTM Interest expense
TTM Interest coverage ratio
Estimated default spread
Estimated bond rating
Cost of debt 2
Beta & Debt/Equity ratio
Unlevered beta
Relevered beta
Peer Tickers Company Name
AAPL Apple Inc
AMZN Amazon.com Inc
DELL Dell Technologies Inc
GOOGL Alphabet Inc
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co
HPQ HP Inc
MSFT Microsoft Corp
NTAP NetApp Inc
STX Seagate Technology PLC
WDC Western Digital Corp
Source
https://tradingeconomics.com/bonds
http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page
Bloomberg adjustment
Company History
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018
25.56% 24.56% 16.28%
16.15%
19.59%
16.28%
Historical
Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018
1,316 2,092 3,022
87,032 115,680 114,483
2.40% 2.61%
2.70%
89,133
2,640
33.76
0.69% Source
AAA
2.11%
Low High
0.96 1.05
1.00 1.09
ny Name Debt/Equity ratio Beta Unlevered beta
0.05 1.20 1.15
.com Inc 0.03 1.14 1.12
hnologies Inc 0.64 0.94 0.62
0.01 1.01 1.00
Packard Enterprise Co 0.84 1.25 0.73
0.18 1.03 0.90
0.04 0.78 0.76
0.15 1.26 1.11
Technology PLC 0.21 1.18 1.00
Digital Corp 0.45 1.61 1.17
com/bonds
u/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/ctryprem.html
y History
Sep-2019 Sep-2020
15.94% 14.43%
orical
Sep-2019 Sep-2020
3,423 3,002
108,047 113,097
2.99% 2.78%
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/pc/ratings.xls
Enterprise/Equity Value Calculations
(USD in millions)
Profit before tax
(-) Net interest income/expense
(+) Depreciation & Armortization
EBITDA
(-) Tax
(-): Capex
(-): Change in NWC
Free Cash Flow (FCF)
Terminal value
WACC / Discount rate 7.13%
Long-term growth rate 4.00%
Timing of FCF (mid year)
Present value of FCF
Enterprise value 2,435,556
Projection period 308,179 12.7%
Terminal value 2,127,377 87.3%
(-) Current net debt 83,179
Equity value 2,352,377
(/) Outstanding shares 16,688
Fair price 140.97
Fair price (USD) 140.97
Sensitivity Analysis
WACC 8.25%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Terminal value
Present value of FCF
Low
Enterprise value 1,498,954
Equity value 1,415,775
Fair price 84.84
Fair price (USD) 84.84
WACC 6.01%
Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Terminal value
Present value of FCF
High
Enterprise value 7,308,415
Equity value 7,225,236
Fair price 432.97
Fair price (USD) 432.97
Projections
6M/FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
39,915 87,587 96,385 108,464
504 1,056 1,113 1,203
5,790 12,093 12,595 13,916
45,201 98,623 107,867 121,178
6,500 14,263 15,696 17,663
7,165 15,015 15,825 17,100
(1,999) 1,989 (1,171) (1,096)
33,534 67,356 77,517 87,510
0.25 1.00 2.00 3.00
32,962 62,872 67,540 71,171
Projections
6M/FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24
32,876 62,220 66,146 68,979
33,049 63,538 68,978 73,457
FY25 Terminal
119,775 108,208
1,278 1,198
16,089 14,200
134,586 121,210
19,505 17,621
18,175 17,034
(91) (786)
96,996 87,341
2,900,514
4.00 4.50
73,635 2,127,377
FY25 Terminal
1,712,011
70,627 1,198,108
9,092,295
76,805 6,992,588
P/E
You can add/delete peer companies in cells B18:B27 (one at a time)
Range Selected
Trailing P/E multiples 22.12x - 28.74x 26.15x
Forward P/E multiples 22.86x - 26.22x 23.6x
Fair Price 91.55 - 131.43 107.0
Upside -29.8% - 0.7% -17.9%
(USD in millions except Fair price)
Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)
AAPL Apple Inc 2,177,068
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,758,526
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 75,277
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,609,881
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,871
HPQ HP Inc 34,433
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,953,916
NTAP NetApp Inc 17,399
SMCI Super Micro Computer Inc 1,711
STX Seagate Technology PLC 19,523
Industry median
(*) Profit after tax
Equity value
(/) Outstanding shares
Fair price
Fair price (USD)
EV / EBITDA
You can add/delete peer companies in cells B56:B65 (one at a time)
Range Selected
Trailing EV/EBITDA multiples 8.86x - 16.66x 11.1x
Forward EV/EBITDA multiples 14.78x - 20.18x 18.1x
Fair Price 48.14 - 104.34 77.3
Upside -63.1% - -20% -40.7%
(USD in millions except Fair price)
Ticker Company Name Market Cap (USD mil)
AAPL Apple Inc 2,177,068
AMZN Amazon.com Inc 1,758,526
DBD Diebold Nixdorf Inc 1,002
DELL Dell Technologies Inc 75,277
GOOGL Alphabet Inc 1,609,881
HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Co 18,871
HPQ HP Inc 34,433
KODK Eastman Kodak Co 688
MSFT Microsoft Corp 1,953,916
WDC Western Digital Corp 21,289
Industry median
(*) EBITDA
Enterprise value
(-) Net debt
Equity value
(/) Outstanding shares
Fair price
Fair price (USD)
Upside
-17.9%
Stock Price
130.46 USD
Fair Price
107.05 USD
Sensitivity Analysis
Trailing P/E Forward P/E
28.5x 33.8x Industry multiple
65.6x 53.9x (*) Profit after tax
17.7x 23.5x Equity value
31.3x 30x
29.1x 16.9x (/) Outstanding shares
9.3x 10.9x Fair price
34.9x 35.9x Fair price (USD)
23.8x 23.7x
19.4x 15.4x
19.6x 21.9x
26.15x 23.6x
76,311 66,830
1,995,533 1,577,183
16,688 16,688
119.58 94.51
119.58 94.51
Upside
-40.7%
Stock Price
130.46 USD
Fair Price
77.32 USD
Sensitivity Analysis
Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
22.6x 25x Industry multiple
29.8x 26.5x (*) EBITDA
6.6x 16.5x Enterprise value
9.5x 12.2x
25.7x 20.9x (-) Net debt
6.5x 6.5x Equity value
6.7x 8x
7.9x 10x (/) Outstanding shares
26.4x 26x Fair price
12.7x 19.7x Fair price (USD)
11.1x 18.1x
100,050 90,402
1,110,555 1,636,267
83,179 83,179
1,027,376 1,553,088
16,688 16,688
61.57 93.07
61.57 93.07
nalysis
Low High
Trailing P/E Forward P/E Trailing P/E Forward P/E
22.12x 22.86x 28.74x 26.22x
76,311 66,830 76,311 66,830
1,687,999 1,527,729 2,193,178 1,752,277
16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688
101.15 91.55 131.43 105.00
101.15 91.55 131.43 105.00
nalysis
Low High
Trailing Forward Trailing Forward
EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA EV/EBITDA
8.86x 14.78x 16.66x 20.18x
100,050 90,402 100,050 90,402
886,443 1,336,134 1,666,833 1,824,303
83,179 83,179 83,179 83,179
803,264 1,252,955 1,583,654 1,741,124
16,688 16,688 16,688 16,688
48.14 75.08 94.90 104.34
48.14 75.08 94.90 104.34
Earnings Power Value
Range Selected
WACC / Discount Rate 6% - 8.3% 7.13%
Normalized Earnings 53,830 53,830
Fair Price 34.09 - 48.70 41.4
Upside -73.9% - -62.7% -68.3%
(USD in millions)
Sep-2016
Revenue 215,639
Sustainable revenue 266,761
Gross margin 39.08%
Sustainable gross margin 38.13%
Sustainable gross profit 101,720
Research & Development 10,045
Selling, G&A expense 14,194
Total operating expenses 24,239
% of Revenue 11.24%
(-) Maintenance operating expenses 34,690
Normalized EBIT 67,030
Tax rate 25.56%
Selected tax rate 19.35%
After-tax Normalized EBIT 54,057
Capex 12,734
Depreciation & Armortization 10,505
Difference 2,229
(-) 5y Average Difference 227
Normalized Earnings 53,830
Low High
Normalized Earnings 53,830 53,830
(/) WACC 8.25% 6.01%
Enterprise Value 652,114 895,880
(-) Net debt 83,179 83,179
Equity Value 568,935 812,701
(/) Outstanding shares 16,688 16,688
Fair price 34.09 48.70
Fair price (USD) 34.09 48.70
Upside
-68.3%
Stock Price
130.46 USD
Fair Price
41.40 USD
Historical
Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020
229,234 265,595 260,174 274,515
38.47% 38.34% 37.82% 38.23%
11,581 14,236 16,217 18,752
15,261 16,705 18,245 19,916
26,842 30,941 34,462 38,668
11.71% 11.65% 13.25% 14.09%
24.56% 16.28% 15.94% 14.43%
12,451 13,313 10,495 7,309
10,157 10,903 12,547 11,056
2,294 2,410 (2,052) (3,747)
Discounted Dividend Model - Stable Growth
Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.1% - 8.5%
Fair Price 58.25 - 358.96
Upside -55.4% - 175.2%
(USD in millions except Fair price)
Low
Stable payout ratio 70%
(*) TTM Profit after tax 76,311
Adjusted dividends 53,418
Cost of equity 8.50%
Long-term growth rate 3.00%
Equity value 972,014
(/) Outstanding share 16,688
Fair price 58.25
Fair price (USD) 58.25
Discounted Dividend Model - Multi Stage
Range
Long-term Growth Rate 3% - 5%
Cost of Equity 6.1% - 8.5%
Fair Price 71.13 - 335.93
Upside -45.5% - 157.5%
Current payout ratio 18.64%
Stable payout ratio 90.00%
(USD in millions)
6M/FY21
Profit after tax 33,415
Payout ratio 19%
Estimated paid dividends 6,230
Cost of equity 7.32%
Long-term growth rate 4.00%
Timing of dividends (mid year) 0.25
Present value of dividends 6,121
Equity value 1,950,330
(/) Outstanding shares 16,688
Fair price 116.87
Fair price (USD) 116.87
Sensitivity Analysis
6M/FY21
Cost of equity 8.50%
Long-term growth rate 3.0%
Present value of dividends 6,104
Low
Equity value 1,187,065
Fair price 71.13
Low
Fair price (USD) 71.13
Cost of equity 6.15%
Long-term growth rate 5.0%
Present value of dividends 6,137
High
Equity value 5,605,940
Fair price 335.93
Fair price (USD) 335.93
Upside
59.9%
Selected Stock Price
4.00% 130.46 USD
7.32%
208.6 Fair Price
59.9% 208.60 USD
High
90%
76,311
68,680
6.15%
5.00%
5,990,204
16,688
358.96
358.96
Upside
-10.4%
Selected Stock Price
4.00% 130.46 USD
7.32%
116.9 Fair Price
-10.4% 116.87 USD
Projections
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
73,324 80,689 90,801 100,270
33% 47% 61% 76%
24,134 38,074 55,804 75,933
1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00
22,488 33,057 45,145 57,239
Projections
FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25
22,245 32,345 43,695 54,800
22,737 33,792 46,660 59,815
Terminal
90,587
90%
81,528
4.50
1,786,281
Terminal
1,027,877
5,436,799
Appendix
Year Historical Capex Most current reporting period
2012 9,402 Most current fiscal year end
2013 9,076 Number of months difference between 2
2014 9,813
2015 11,488 Is a financial institution?
2016 12,734
2017 12,451 Current net debt
2018 13,313
2019 10,495 Is reporting currency same as trading cur
2020 7,309
2021 n/a Exchange rate (USD/USD):
2022 n/a
2023 n/a
2024 n/a
2025 n/a
2026 n/a
2027 n/a
2028 n/a
2029 n/a AAPL
2030 n/a
orting period 2021-03-27
al year end 2020-09-26
s difference between 2 periods 6 (12 means they are the same period)
No
no no
83,179
ncy same as trading currency? Yes
USD/USD): 1
re the same period)
no
1
