www.silatendancesemaintient.

ca
www.tooclosetocall.ca
CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Autres
% 39.2 15.4 13.0 15.5 14.8 2.2
sièges 87 20 7 11 0 0
Chances de gagner* 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Ind CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Vert
Abitibi-Est 45.9% 10.0% 14.6% 16.7% 10.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 37.4% 2.4% 29.3% 17.8% 11.9% 97% 0% 2% 1% 0% 0%
Acadie 21.8% 39.5% 7.1% 13.9% 13.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 35.6% 26.9% 11.7% 13.1% 10.2% 81% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 45.3% 8.9% 19.1% 11.1% 13.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 66.0% 2.4% 3.8% 13.3% 12.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 51.8% 6.1% 0.0% 6.5% 35.0% 84% 0% 0% 0% 16% 0%
Beauce-Sud 53.7% 11.3% 0.0% 5.6% 27.9% 99% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Beauharnois 51.8% 4.5% 18.4% 13.0% 11.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 44.9% 14.3% 1.5% 7.4% 31.3% 70% 0% 0% 0% 30% 0%
Berthier 47.0% 0.3% 23.7% 15.9% 11.3% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Bertrand 43.6% 3.9% 18.7% 19.2% 12.4% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Blainville 52.6% 10.5% 10.0% 13.1% 10.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 26.1% 12.6% 33.3% 15.6% 10.5% 48% 0% 51% 0% 1% 0%
Borduas 50.5% 2.3% 16.4% 16.5% 12.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 30.8% 33.9% 7.8% 13.0% 12.0% 21% 79% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget/Camille-Laurin 37.1% 13.1% 37.1% 9.9% 58% 0% 41% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 46.5% 15.1% 5.5% 18.4% 11.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 54.8% 3.8% 13.8% 14.3% 11.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 55.3% 10.0% 6.6% 13.6% 12.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 44.1% 19.9% 4.1% 17.9% 12.9% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 44.3% 10.2% 8.6% 10.4% 25.8% 97% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 46.0% 10.9% 14.7% 10.1% 17.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 41.4% 19.9% 10.1% 12.3% 13.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 41.3% 9.8% 5.9% 6.9% 34.5% 21% 0% 0% 0% 79% 0%
Chicoutimi 47.0% 5.9% 20.0% 13.4% 11.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 29.4% 37.4% 5.7% 6.8% 17.5% 14% 86% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 49.9% 1.8% 6.1% 8.0% 33.5% 89% 0% 0% 0% 11% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 46.7% 12.6% 4.2% 10.6% 25.3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 12.5% 51.1% 3.5% 8.5% 18.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 52.2% 4.7% 15.9% 12.8% 11.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 59.8% 4.1% 7.1% 15.8% 12.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 43.4% 14.0% 16.2% 12.8% 13.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 35.0% 8.2% 30.0% 13.4% 12.4% 96% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 36.2% 24.6% 11.4% 10.1% 13.8% 95% 5% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 29.3% 18.6% 27.3% 13.9% 10.1% 88% 4% 8% 0% 1% 0%
Gatineau 44.5% 17.2% 4.6% 15.2% 13.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 15.0% 4.3% 11.2% 56.1% 9.6% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Granby 65.6% 1.5% 4.1% 14.7% 12.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 45.2% 11.5% 12.7% 15.8% 12.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 18.2% 3.5% 19.7% 47.4% 10.1% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Hull 24.6% 25.0% 10.0% 22.0% 13.6% 63% 31% 0% 5% 2% 0%
Huntingdon 40.5% 21.7% 6.6% 14.8% 13.9% 97% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 50.6% 3.1% 12.5% 18.3% 13.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 26.8% 21.1% 29.7% 12.4% 9.2% 59% 13% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 10.1% 52.4% 4.0% 6.0% 17.3% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 34.3% 6.1% 6.7% 33.4% 18.2% 42% 0% 0% 57% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 22.0% 51.2% 3.1% 7.6% 12.7% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 38.5% 15.4% 9.8% 19.5% 14.6% 98% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Johnson 56.9% 2.0% 7.9% 19.0% 12.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 37.8% 0.4% 37.7% 10.9% 11.7% 81% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 42.2% 0.9% 35.7% 8.0% 12.2% 96% 0% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 38.5% 1.6% 30.1% 16.1% 12.3% 96% 0% 2% 2% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 42.1% 3.7% 26.8% 15.5% 11.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 27.1% 43.1% 6.4% 8.6% 12.9% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 54.9% 4.5% 4.6% 6.9% 27.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 29.7% 36.1% 7.1% 10.0% 13.8% 47% 53% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 33.1% 22.1% 11.0% 16.8% 13.1% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Prairie 46.9% 15.1% 12.4% 11.2% 11.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 61.0% 1.4% 10.4% 14.4% 10.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 12.9% 17.5% 5.6% 48.7% 12.1% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 35.7% 20.8% 12.6% 15.8% 12.3% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 48.5% 12.2% 10.4% 15.9% 12.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 53.0% 0.2% 18.4% 14.3% 12.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 52.3% 2.4% 7.2% 8.6% 27.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 47.3% 11.1% 3.6% 9.3% 26.9% 94% 0% 0% 0% 6% 0%
Louis-Hébert 43.7% 14.8% 9.7% 8.2% 22.1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 27.4% 37.3% 7.4% 11.5% 11.9% 6% 94% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 32.6% 6.6% 31.9% 15.9% 10.5% 66% 0% 34% 0% 0% 0%
Marquette 28.9% 34.9% 6.1% 11.3% 13.0% 62% 38% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 47.5% 16.7% 7.7% 13.3% 12.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 57.0% 2.6% 15.8% 11.1% 11.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 21.6% 61.4% 5.6% 10.2% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 25.9% 15.9% 15.9% 30.0% 10.0% 27% 1% 0% 72% 0% 0%
Mégantic 50.5% 10.9% 7.4% 17.1% 10.8% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Mercier 12.3% 9.5% 9.3% 53.5% 10.7% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 36.4% 24.1% 12.6% 11.8% 11.5% 96% 4% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 58.8% 1.1% 14.3% 12.7% 11.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 47.2% 13.5% 13.0% 14.4% 11.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 46.9% 6.6% 7.6% 10.1% 27.5% 97% 0% 0% 0% 3% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 17.9% 36.6% 10.4% 16.0% 13.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 19.8% 47.1% 3.8% 6.5% 17.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 58.9% 3.7% 10.4% 13.0% 12.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 9.9% 46.5% 5.1% 14.0% 14.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 41.8% 15.3% 7.6% 19.5% 12.2% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Papineau 50.0% 14.2% 5.5% 16.3% 12.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 43.9% 6.1% 27.7% 12.3% 9.3% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 20.6% 38.5% 2.0% 14.9% 18.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 46.3% 9.4% 3.4% 11.0% 29.3% 85% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0%
Prévost 49.1% 3.5% 19.5% 14.7% 12.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 35.8% 3.9% 37.6% 10.6% 11.4% 73% 0% 27% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 54.3% 5.6% 15.0% 12.6% 11.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 52.2% 2.3% 17.8% 13.8% 12.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 42.2% 10.9% 12.9% 20.1% 12.1% 98% 0% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Rimouski 34.0% 3.1% 36.1% 16.5% 9.6% 70% 0% 29% 1% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 49.1% 19.4% 9.3% 10.8% 10.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 13.1% 55.0% 3.5% 5.6% 17.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 35.8% 25.1% 14.6% 11.1% 12.8% 77% 23% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 20.9% 9.9% 24.5% 32.8% 10.1% 2% 0% 11% 87% 0% 0%
Rousseau 53.7% 0.3% 20.5% 13.0% 11.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue32.2% 7.1% 13.4% 33.9% 11.6% 38% 0% 0% 62% 0% 0%
Saint-François 32.6% 13.7% 11.1% 29.8% 10.6% 67% 0% 0% 33% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 23.4% 24.8% 9.8% 24.7% 12.5% 24% 64% 0% 12% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 54.7% 5.1% 10.6% 17.4% 11.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 41.8% 2.4% 26.4% 15.2% 12.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 48.3% 1.3% 23.7% 13.5% 11.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 19.3% 45.7% 4.9% 8.9% 16.3% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 14.9% 12.6% 10.9% 46.9% 10.4% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 41.3% 19.1% 11.6% 12.5% 12.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 47.4% 5.4% 21.2% 12.6% 11.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 25.3% 16.1% 9.6% 36.6% 10.9% 4% 0% 0% 96% 0% 0%
Soulanges 44.4% 20.3% 8.1% 11.2% 12.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 37.9% 8.3% 24.6% 15.6% 11.2% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 22.9% 6.0% 16.5% 44.3% 8.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 47.2% 3.8% 25.8% 10.6% 11.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 43.6% 14.2% 10.1% 18.0% 12.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Ungava 23.0% 10.4% 24.6% 20.7% 16.6% 87% 2% 1% 3% 7% 0%
Vachon 48.0% 12.3% 13.8% 12.8% 12.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 41.1% 13.5% 7.0% 9.2% 27.6% 85% 0% 0% 0% 15% 0%
Vaudreuil 36.7% 25.0% 8.8% 10.5% 14.4% 91% 9% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 41.8% 1.4% 31.7% 12.3% 11.1% 95% 0% 5% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 24.5% 20.0% 13.7% 29.8% 7.1% 32% 13% 0% 55% 0% 0%
Viau 22.3% 34.3% 5.5% 24.5% 12.0% 2% 92% 0% 6% 0% 0%
Vimont 39.6% 24.6% 9.8% 10.5% 12.5% 98% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 11.4% 49.0% 4.6% 12.1% 16.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)