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ASIAN WEEKLY
sliew@cmaiglobal.com jyim@cmaiglobal.com bhyde@cmaiglobal.com mthoelke@cmaiglobal.com kholmquist@cmaiglobal.com acheong@cmaiglobal.com klu@cmaiglobal.com +(65) 6501-1534 +(65) 6501-1535 +(1) 281-752-3208 +(44) 207 766-6682 +(1) 281-752-3214 +(65) 6501-1518 +(65) 6501-1510
20 McCallum Street # 17-01 Tokio Marine Centre Singapore 069046 Telephone: (65)6226 5363 Fax: (65) 6226-5157
Samuel Liew (Asia C4s and Elastomers) Jinsu Yim (Olefins, Asia) Bill Hyde (U.S. C4s and Elastomers) Matthew Thoelke (Europe C4s and Elastomers) Kristen Holmquist (Natural Rubber & Tires) Aaron Cheong (Olefins, Asia) Kelly Lu (Client Services)
21-Mar to 105.60 988 927 1,262 2,900 2,900 3,850 3,950 3,250 3,450 4,300 4,450 -
25-Mar $/bbl $/ton $/ton $/ton 3,000 3,000 3,950 4,050 3,350 3,550 4,400 4,550
14-Mar to 101.42 944 916 1,206 2,650 2,550 3,850 4,150 3,250 3,400 4,400 4,550 -
18-Mar $/bbl $/ton $/ton $/ton 2,700 2,650 3,950 4,250 3,350 3,500 4,500 4,650
(2)
Move 4.1% 4.7% 1.2% 4.7% 10.3% 13.5% 0.0% -4.8% 0.0% 1.4% -2.2% -2.2%
Mar - MTD 102.42 980 910 1,275 2,714 2,673 3,925 4,125 3,338 3,438 4,425 4,525
Apr 103.59 985 855 1,321 2,960 3,010 3,950 4,080 3,450 3,550 4,400 4,500
FOB NE Asia CFR NE Asia CFR NE Asia CFR SE Asia CFR NE Asia CFR SE Asia CFR NE Asia CFR SE Asia
- BUTADIENE
Feb-11 2,176 1,867 Jan-11 2,009 1,699 Movement 8.3% 9.9%
CMAI ACP
2: Prices are in U.S. dollars per metric ton; 3: See Price Settlement Page
BDE
SBR-1502
SBR-1712
PBR
ABS
Butadiene market ended strongly with FOB levels strengthening while CFR levels lagged behind. Three cargoes were reportedly concluded at about $2,800-$3,000 per metric ton FOB Korea for 2H April/early May loading. SE Asia also sold a cargo last week at slightly higher than $3,000 per metric ton FOB for 2H April loading. Most of these were expected to go to Japan with some to China. Shell Chemicals unplanned butadiene plant shutdown further tightened contract supply. We expect sellers sentiments to remain bullish as Japanese tire producers resumed operations gradually. However, buyers sentiments were fairly mixed. Large buyers in the market bided at about $2,600-$2,650 per metric ton CFR due to ample April inventory. Most buyers continued to resist offers above $2,700 per metric ton delivered. Chinese domestic prices were offered at RMB20,700 per metric ton ex-works as Tianjins new SBR butadiene production came into operation. In Europe the market situation remained tight with inquiries from the U.S., Asia and Russia. Sentiments in the SBR 1502 market remained bearish with further actions by the Thai government to maintain stability and prevent extreme price fluctuations in the natural rubber market, coupled with the return of Japanese auto manufacturing companies to production. Supply was tight with the turnaround season in Taiwan and S. Korea. Nonetheless, the market was affected by supply from China over the week as Chinese tire producers were affected by tighter credit and weaker domestic Chinese prices compared to the international prices. Domestic Chinese prices remained at about RMB25,700-25,800 per metric ton ex-works. SBR 1502 price indications in NE Asia were at about $3,850-$3,950 per metric ton delivered while SE Asia prices were at $3,950-$4,050 per metric ton CIF. SBR 1712 prices remained mostly unchanged as prices were reported at $3,400-$3,500 per metric ton CIF SE Asia and India while the domestic Chinese prices were at RMB21,700 per metric ton ex-works. Most of the Japanese auto makers had already resumed operations after Japans earthquake but were limited by power restrictions, logistic issues and supply of raw materials. Price sentiments remained mixed with different price ranges as buyers resisted higher offers. Most buying indications in the market were at $4,200-$4,300 per metric ton but Japanese buying interest was much stronger with price discussions at about $4,700-$4,800 per metric ton CIF. Korean offers into SE Asia were also at about $4,500 per metric ton delivered while demand from Japan kept prices much stronger. Chinese domestic prices were at RMB 18,300-RMB 18,700 per metric ton ex works last week.
This report is for the exclusive use of the client company. Distribution outside of the client company is strictly prohibited without the prior written consent of Chemical Market Associates, Inc. (CMAI).
The prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and are based on information collected within the public sector and on assessments by CMAI staff. CMAI MAKES NO GUARANTEE OR WARRANTY AND ASSUMES NO LIABILITY AS TO THEIR USE.
Copyright CMAI 2011. All Rights Reserved.
DERIVATIVES
4
Production Cash Margin Extraction (Crude C4) 601 672 697 825 997 986 Dehydro e-SBR (Butane) 369 2,835 303 2,839 294 2,822 392 2,854 FORECAST 786 746 3,155 3,140
Production Cash Cost s-SBR 2,940 2,953 2,935 2,967 3,263 3,247 PBR 3,360 3,387 3,387 3,417 3,832 3,798 ABS 2,393 2,419 2,374 2,405 2,494 2,447
Production Cash Margin SBR-1712 747 861 726 700 591 593 PBR 1,040 1,113 1,013 1,033 548 552 ABS SBR-1502 -44 4,024 -58 4,153 -12 4,041 -43 4,030 FORECAST 4,046 4,021
6
8 7
Butadiene Affordability PBR 3,627 3,700 3,599 3,648 3,588 3,562 ABS 2,369 2,306 2,514 2,403 2,193 2,566
-180 -91
4: Butadiene feedstock priced at spot CFR NE Asia; 5: Based on NE Asia spot prices; 6: Based on e-SBR economics; 7: Includes aromatic oil costs 8: Affordability is defined as the highest price paid for the last incremental spot butadiene such that buyer is at breakeven economics
2,400
Approx. Breakeven
2,400
1,800
1,800
1,200
1,200
600
600
0 Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
0 Jan-09
Jul-09
Spot FOB S.Korea
Jan-10
Jul-10
Contract CIF Taiwan
Jan-11
Jul-11
CMAI ACP
BDE-Nap Spread
1,800
1,200
800
600
400
0
0
-600 Jan-09
Jul-09
Jan-10
Jul-10
Jan-11
Jul-11
-400 Jan-09
Jul-09 Butadiene
Jan-10 SBR-1502
Jul-10 SBR-1712
Jan-11 PBR
Jul-11
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Energy & Feedstock Crude WTI FOB Cushing Naphtha C&F Japan Crude C4 FOB Asia
967
1,690
Butadiene Affordabilities SBR-1502 3,845 SBR-1712 3,612 PBR 3,565 ABS 2,621 Wtd Avg Asia 3,366
2,430 2,420
4,000
3,200 2,400 1,600 800 0 2006 2007
CMAI ACP
2008
2009
2010
Prices are in U.S. Dollars Per Metric Ton, unless otherwise stated
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The current and forecast prices presented herein are strictly the opinion of CMAI and Purvin & Gertz and are based on information within the public sector and on assessments by CMAI and Purvin & Gertz staff. CMAI and Purvin & Gertz make no guarantee or warranty and assume no liability as to their use.
Clients can download most current price data at www.cmaiglobal.com
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The 2011 World Butadiene Analysis will function as your most versatile source of manufacturing, marketing, economic and forecast information.
5 - 20
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Clients are entitled to a reasonable amount of consulting time and data requests in the respective product area for a period of one year. Access to CMAIs online capacity and supply/demand databases is also included. Clients have the ability to access and download in a spreadsheet format the most up-to-date capacity data for the products covered. Available in book format and CD-ROM format, this annual study comprises a truly extensive collecExcellence & Experience in Consulting Since 1979 tion of data derived from Chemicals - Plastics - Fibers CMAI - Headquarters CMAIs own database. 1401 Enclave Parkway, Suite 700 Houston, TX 77077 USA To order your copy of Tel: 1-281-531-4660 Fax: 1-281-531-9966 CMAIs 2011 World Regional Ofces Butadiene Analysis, Dubai - Dsseldorf - London contact CMAI at cmai@ New York - Shanghai - Singapore - Bangkok www.cmaiglobal.com cmaiglobal.com.
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