Produk Domestik Bruto

Periode PDB (miliar RP)

Q1 1990 49,958.40
Q2 1990 51,681.60
Q3 1990 54,864.60
Q4 1990 54,361.60
Q1 1991 58,937.20
Q2 1991 61,199.50
Q3 1991 65,067.00
Q4 1991 64,764.90
Q1 1992 66,641.00
Q2 1992 68,764.60
Q3 1992 73,472.90
Q4 1992 73,516.40
Q1 1993 77,581.60
Q2 1993 80,430.70
Q3 1993 85,523.70
Q4 1993 86,239.80
Q1 1994 87,979.00
Q2 1994 92,988.40
Q3 1994 99,809.70
Q4 1994 101,442.50
Q1 1995 106,543.20
Q2 1995 111,668.10
Q3 1995 117,120.00
Q4 1995 119,182.80
Q1 1996 122,529.50
Q2 1996 128,845.50
Q3 1996 136,939.80
Q4 1996 144,253.20
Q1 1997 145,800.90
Q2 1997 149,405.70
Q3 1997 163,236.70
Q4 1997 169,252.10
Q1 1998 211,574.90
Q2 1998 222,809.00
Q3 1998 264,263.40
Q4 1998 257,106.10
Q1 1999 275,226.50
Q2 1999 271,595.50
Q3 1999 277,558.00
Q4 1999 275,351.60
Q1 2000 293,416.08
Q2 2000 305,832.17
Q3 2000 327,088.15
Q4 2000 338,582.36
Q1 2001 352,265.61
Q2 2001 372,088.13
Q3 2001 375,471.81
Q4 2001 367,829.28
Q1 2002 388,571.57
Q2 2002 396,873.62
Q3 2002 413,534.15
Q4 2002 411,585.60
Q1 2003 442,734.64
Q2 2003 438,257.31
Q3 2003 454,168.69
Q4 2003 451530.29
 Produk Domestik Bruto
Periode PDB (miliar RP) t t^2 Yt
Q1 1990 49,958.40 -27.5 756.25 -1373856 a 200987.8
Q2 1990 51,681.60 -26.5 702.25 -1369562.4 b 7951.126
Q3 1990 54,864.60 -25.5 650.25 -1399047.3 n 58
Q4 1990 54,361.60 -24.5 600.25 -1331859.2
Q1 1991 58,937.20 -23.5 552.25 -1385024.2
Q2 1991 61,199.50 -22.5 506.25 -1376988.75
Q3 1991 65,067.00 -21.5 462.25 -1398940.5
Q4 1991 64,764.90 -20.5 420.25 -1327680.45
Q1 1992 66,641.00 -19.5 380.25 -1299499.5
Q2 1992 68,764.60 -18.5 342.25 -1272145.1
Q3 1992 73,472.90 -17.5 306.25 -1285775.75
Q4 1992 73,516.40 -16.5 272.25 -1213020.6
Q1 1993 77,581.60 -15.5 240.25 -1202514.8
Q2 1993 80,430.70 -14.5 210.25 -1166245.15
Q3 1993 85,523.70 -13.5 182.25 -1154569.95
Q4 1993 86,239.80 -12.5 156.25 -1077997.5
Q1 1994 87,979.00 -11.5 132.25 -1011758.5
Q2 1994 92,988.40 -10.5 110.25 -976378.2
Q3 1994 99,809.70 -9.5 90.25 -948192.15
Q4 1994 101,442.50 -8.5 72.25 -862261.25
Q1 1995 106,543.20 -7.5 56.25 -799074
Q2 1995 111,668.10 -6.5 42.25 -725842.65
Q3 1995 117,120.00 -5.5 30.25 -644160
Q4 1995 119,182.80 -4.5 20.25 -536322.6
Q1 1996 122,529.50 -3.5 12.25 -428853.25
Q2 1996 128,845.50 -2.5 6.25 -322113.75
Q3 1996 136,939.80 -1.5 2.25 -205409.7
Q4 1996 144,253.20 -0.5 0.25 -72126.6
Q1 1997 145,800.90 0.5 0.25 72900.45
Q2 1997 149,405.70 1.5 2.25 224108.55
Q3 1997 163,236.70 2.5 6.25 408091.75
Q4 1997 169,252.10 3.5 12.25 592382.35
Q1 1998 211,574.90 4.5 20.25 952087.05
Q2 1998 222,809.00 5.5 30.25 1225449.5
Q3 1998 264,263.40 6.5 42.25 1717712.1
Q4 1998 257,106.10 7.5 56.25 1928295.75
Q1 1999 275,226.50 8.5 72.25 2339425.25
Q2 1999 271,595.50 9.5 90.25 2580157.25
Q3 1999 277,558.00 10.5 110.25 2914359
Q4 1999 275,351.60 11.5 132.25 3166543.4
Q1 2000 293,416.08 12.5 156.25 3667701
Q2 2000 305,832.17 13.5 182.25 4128734.295
Q3 2000 327,088.15 14.5 210.25 4742778.175
Q4 2000 338,582.36 15.5 240.25 5248026.58
Q1 2001 352,265.61 16.5 272.25 5812382.565
Q2 2001 372,088.13 17.5 306.25 6511542.275
Q3 2001 375,471.81 18.5 342.25 6946228.485
Q4 2001 367,829.28 19.5 380.25 7172670.96
Q1 2002 388,571.57 20.5 420.25 7965717.185
Q2 2002 396,873.62 21.5 462.25 8532782.83
Q3 2002 413,534.15 22.5 506.25 9304518.375
Q4 2002 411,585.60 23.5 552.25 9672261.6
Q1 2003 442,734.64 24.5 600.25 10846998.68
Q2 2003 438,257.31 25.5 650.25 11175561.405
Q3 2003 454,168.69 26.5 702.25 12035470.285
Q4 2003 451530.29 27.5 756.25 12417082.975
JUMLAH 11,255,317.06 0.00 14,630.00 116,134,750.27
RATA 200,987.80 0.00 261.25 2,073,834.83

### 28.00 14,644.00 ###

 Periode t Forecast
58 Q1 1990 -27 -13692.59
Q2 1990 -26 -5741.464
Q3 1990 -25 2209.662
Q4 1990 -24 10160.79
Q1 1991 -23 18111.91
Q2 1991 -22 26063.04
Q3 1991 -21 34014.16
Q4 1991 -20 41965.29
Q1 1992 -19 49916.42
Q2 1992 -18 57867.54
Q3 1992 -17 65818.67
Q4 1992 -16 73769.79
Q1 1993 -15 81720.92
Q2 1993 -14 89672.04
Q3 1993 -13 97623.17
Q4 1993 -12 105574.3
Q1 1994 -11 113525.4
Q2 1994 -10 121476.5
Q3 1994 -9 129427.7
Q4 1994 -8 137378.8
Q1 1995 -7 145329.9
Q2 1995 -6 153281.1
Q3 1995 -5 161232.2
Q4 1995 -4 169183.3
Q1 1996 -3 177134.4
Q2 1996 -2 185085.6
Q3 1996 -1 193036.7
Q4 1996 0 200987.8
Q1 1997 1 208938.9
Q2 1997 2 216890.1
Q3 1997 3 224841.2
Q4 1997 4 232792.3
Q1 1998 5 240743.4
Q2 1998 6 248694.6
Q3 1998 7 256645.7
Q4 1998 8 264596.8
Q1 1999 9 272547.9
Q2 1999 10 280499.1
Q3 1999 11 288450.2
Q4 1999 12 296401.3
Q1 2000 13 304352.4
Q2 2000 14 312303.6
Q3 2000 15 320254.7
Q4 2000 16 328205.8
Q1 2001 17 336156.9
Q2 2001 18 344108.1
Q3 2001 19 352059.2
Q4 2001 20 360010.3
Q1 2002 21 367961.4
Q2 2002 22 375912.6
Q3 2002 23 383863.7
Q4 2002 24 391814.8
Q1 2003 25 399765.9
Q2 2003 26 407717.1
Q3 2003 27 415668.2
Q4 2003 28 423619.3
Q1 2004 29 431570.4
Q2 2004 30 439521.6
Q3 2004 31 447472.7
Q4 2004 32 455423.8
 Produk Domestik Bruto
Periode PDB (miliar RP) X X^2 X^4 XY X^2Y
Q1 1990 49,958.40 -27.5 756.25 571914.0625 -1373856 37781040
Q2 1990 51,681.60 -26.5 702.25 493155.0625 -1369562.4 36293403.6
Q3 1990 54,864.60 -25.5 650.25 422825.0625 -1399047.3 35675706.15
Q4 1990 54,361.60 -24.5 600.25 360300.0625 -1331859.2 32630550.4
Q1 1991 58,937.20 -23.5 552.25 304980.0625 -1385024.2 32548068.7
Q2 1991 61,199.50 -22.5 506.25 256289.0625 -1376988.75 30982246.875
Q3 1991 65,067.00 -21.5 462.25 213675.0625 -1398940.5 30077220.75
Q4 1991 64,764.90 -20.5 420.25 176610.0625 -1327680.45 27217449.225
Q1 1992 66,641.00 -19.5 380.25 144590.0625 -1299499.5 25340240.25
Q2 1992 68,764.60 -18.5 342.25 117135.0625 -1272145.1 23534684.35
Q3 1992 73,472.90 -17.5 306.25 93789.0625 -1285775.75 22501075.625
Q4 1992 73,516.40 -16.5 272.25 74120.0625 -1213020.6 20014839.9
Q1 1993 77,581.60 -15.5 240.25 57720.0625 -1202514.8 Chart Title
18638979.4
Q2 1993 80,430.70 -14.5 210.25 44205.0625 -1166245.15 16910554.675
500,000.00
Q3 1993 85,523.70 -13.5 182.25 33215.0625 -1154569.95
450,000.00
15586694.325
f(x) = 134.969106360467 x² + 244.884674295459 x + 49119.255
Q4 1993 86,239.80 -12.5 156.25 24414.0625 -1077997.5
400,000.00 13474968.75
Q1 1994 87,979.00 -11.5 132.25 17490.0625 -1011758.5
350,000.00 11635222.75
Q2 1994 92,988.40 -10.5 110.25 12155.0625 300,000.00-976378.2 10251971.1
Q3 1994 99,809.70 -9.5 90.25 8145.0625 -948192.15
250,000.00 9007825.425
Q4 1994 101,442.50 -8.5 72.25 5220.0625 -862261.25
200,000.00 7329220.625
Q1 1995 106,543.20 -7.5 56.25 3164.0625
150,000.00 -799074 5993055
Q2 1995 111,668.10 -6.5 42.25 100,000.00
1785.0625 -725842.65 4717977.225
Q3 1995 117,120.00 -5.5 30.25 915.062550,000.00 -644160 3542880
Q4 1995 119,182.80 -4.5 20.25 410.0625 0.00-536322.6 2413451.7
90 90 91 92 93 993 994 995 996 996 997 998 999 999 000
Q1 1996 122,529.50 -3.5 12.25 150.0625 19 19 19 19 19 1500986.375
-428853.25 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2
Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q
Q2 1996 128,845.50 -2.5 6.25 39.0625 -322113.75 805284.375
Q3 1996 136,939.80 -1.5 2.25 5.0625 -205409.7 308114.55
Q4 1996 144,253.20 -0.5 0.25 0.0625 -72126.6 36063.3
Q1 1997 145,800.90 0.5 0.25 0.0625 72900.45 36450.225
Q2 1997 149,405.70 1.5 2.25 5.0625 224108.55 336162.825
Q3 1997 163,236.70 2.5 6.25 39.0625 408091.75 1020229.375
Q4 1997 169,252.10 3.5 12.25 150.0625 592382.35 2073338.225
Q1 1998 211,574.90 4.5 20.25 410.0625 952087.05 4284391.725
Q2 1998 222,809.00 5.5 30.25 915.0625 1225449.5 6739972.25
Q3 1998 264,263.40 6.5 42.25 1785.0625 1717712.1 11165128.65
Q4 1998 257,106.10 7.5 56.25 3164.0625 1928295.75 14462218.125
Q1 1999 275,226.50 8.5 72.25 5220.0625 2339425.25 19885114.625
Q2 1999 271,595.50 9.5 90.25 8145.0625 2580157.25 24511493.875
Q3 1999 277,558.00 10.5 110.25 12155.0625 2914359 30600769.5
Q4 1999 275,351.60 11.5 132.25 17490.0625 3166543.4 36415249.1
Q1 2000 293,416.08 12.5 156.25 24414.0625 3667701 45846262.5
Q2 2000 305,832.17 13.5 182.25 33215.0625 4128734.295 55737912.9825
Q3 2000 327,088.15 14.5 210.25 44205.0625 4742778.175 68770283.5375
Q4 2000 338,582.36 15.5 240.25 57720.0625 5248026.58 81344411.99
Q1 2001 352,265.61 16.5 272.25 74120.0625 5812382.565 95904312.3225
Q2 2001 372,088.13 17.5 306.25 93789.0625 6511542.275 113951989.8125
Q3 2001 375,471.81 18.5 342.25 117135.0625 6946228.485 128505226.9725
Q4 2001 367,829.28 19.5 380.25 144590.0625 7172670.96 139867083.72
Q1 2002 388,571.57 20.5 420.25 176610.0625 7965717.185 163297202.2925
Q2 2002 396,873.62 21.5 462.25 213675.0625 8532782.83 183454830.845
Q3 2002 413,534.15 22.5 506.25 256289.0625 9304518.375 209351663.4375
Q4 2002 411,585.60 23.5 552.25 304980.0625 9672261.6 227298147.6
Q1 2003 442,734.64 24.5 600.25 360300.0625 10846998.68 265751467.66
Q2 2003 438,257.31 25.5 650.25 422825.0625 11175561.405 284976815.8275
Q3 2003 454,168.69 26.5 702.25 493155.0625 12035470.285 318939962.5525
Q4 2003 451530.29 27.5 756.25 571914.0625 12417082.975 341469781.8125
Jumlah 11,255,317.06 0.00 14,630.00 6,876,831.50 116,134,750.27 3,352,747,649.77
Rata 200,987.80 0.00 261.25 122,800.56 2,073,834.83 59,870,493.75

11255317.06 0 14630 6876831.5 116134750.27 3352747649.765

 Periode t Forecast
a 153394.2 Q1 1990 -27.5 57008.25 -7,049.85 306,788.49 144455.9
b 7938.124 Q2 1990 -26.5 56241.22 -4,559.62 137412.4
c 161.2065 Q3 1990 -25.5 55796.61 -932.01 130638.8
Q4 1990 -24.5 55674.41 -1,312.81 124135.2
Q1 1991 -23.5 55874.62 3,062.58 117901.5
Q2 1991 -22.5 56397.24 4,802.26 111937.8
Q3 1991 -21.5 57242.28 7,824.72 106244
Q4 1991 -20.5 58409.73 6,355.17 100820.1
Q1 1992 -19.5 59899.6 6,741.40 95666.18
Q2 1992 -18.5 61711.88 7,052.72 90782.2
Q3 1992 -17.5 63846.57 9,626.33 86168.16
Q4 1992 -16.5 66303.67 7,212.73 81824.06
art Title Q1 1993 -15.5 69083.18 8,498.42 77749.9
Q2 1993 -14.5 72185.11 8,245.59 73945.68
44.884674295459 x + 49119.2557474747 Q3 1993 -13.5 75609.46 9,914.24 70411.4
Q4 1993 -12.5 79356.21 6,883.59 67147.06
Q1 1994 -11.5 83425.38 4,553.62 64152.66
Q2 1994 -10.5 87816.96 5,171.44 61428.2
Q3 1994 -9.5 92530.95 7,278.75 58973.68
Q4 1994 -8.5 97567.36 3,875.14 56789.1
Q1 1995 -7.5 102926.2 3,617.02 54874.46
Q2 1995 -6.5 108607.4 3,060.69 53229.76
Q3 1995 -5.5 114611.1 2,508.94 51855
Q4 1995 -4.5 120937.1 -1,754.32 50750.18
96 96 97 98 99 99 00 01 02 02 03
19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 Q1 1996 -3.5 127585.6 -5,056.09 49915.3
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3
Q2 1996 -2.5 134556.5 -5,710.97 49350.36
Q3 1996 -1.5 141849.8 -4,909.97 49055.36
Q4 1996 -0.5 149465.5 -5,212.28 49030.3
Q1 1997 0.5 157403.6 ### 49275.18
Q2 1997 1.5 165664.1 ### 49790
Q3 1997 2.5 174247.1 ### 50574.76
Q4 1997 3.5 183152.5 ### 51629.46
Q1 1998 4.5 192380.2 19,194.67 52954.1
Q2 1998 5.5 201930.4 20,878.58 54548.68
Q3 1998 6.5 211803 52,460.38 56413.2
Q4 1998 7.5 221998 35,108.06 58547.66
Q1 1999 8.5 232515.5 42,711.04 60952.06
Q2 1999 9.5 243355.3 28,240.20 63626.4
Q3 1999 10.5 254517.6 23,040.44 66570.68
Q4 1999 11.5 266002.2 9,349.38 69784.9
Q1 2000 12.5 277809.3 15,606.78 73269.06
Q2 2000 13.5 289938.8 15,893.37 77023.16
Q3 2000 14.5 302390.7 24,697.45 81047.2
Q4 2000 15.5 315165 23,417.34 85341.18
Q1 2001 16.5 328261.8 24,003.86 89905.1
Q2 2001 17.5 341680.9 30,407.23 94738.96
Q3 2001 18.5 355422.5 20,049.36 99842.76
Q4 2001 19.5 369486.4 -1,657.14 105216.5
Q1 2002 20.5 383872.8 4,698.76 110860.2
Q2 2002 21.5 398581.6 -1,707.98 116773.8
Q3 2002 22.5 413612.8 -78.66 122957.4
Q4 2002 23.5 428966.4 ### 129410.9
Q1 2003 24.5 444642.5 -1,907.83 136134.3
Q2 2003 25.5 460640.9 ### 143127.7
Q3 2003 26.5 476961.8 ### 150391
Q4 2003 27.5 493605.1 ### 157924.3
Q1 2004 28.5 510570.7 ### 165727.5
Q2 2004 29.5 527858.8 ### 173800.6
Q3 2004 30.5 545469.4 ### 182143.7
Q4 2004 31.5 563402.3 ### 190756.7
-94,497.46
-85,730.76
-75,774.20
-69,773.58
-58,964.30
-50,738.26
-41,176.96
-36,055.20
-29,025.18
-22,017.60
-12,695.26
-8,307.66
-168.30
6,485.02
15,112.30
19,092.74
23,826.34
31,560.20
40,836.02
44,653.40
51,668.74
58,438.34
65,265.00
68,432.62
72,614.20
79,495.14
87,884.44
95,222.90
96,525.72
99,615.70
112,661.94
117,622.64
158,620.80
168,260.32
207,850.20
198,558.44
214,274.44
207,969.10
210,987.32
205,566.70
220,147.02
228,809.01
246,040.95
 253,241.18
262,360.51
277,349.17
275,629.05
262,612.78
277,711.39
280,099.82
290,576.79
282,174.74
306,600.34
295,129.63
303,777.69
293,606.03
11,089,589.60
27,187.20
-182,143.68
-190,756.70
17,273,918.37
Periode PDB (miliar RP) t t^2 Log Y t Log Y
Q1 1990 49,958.40 -27.5 756.25 4.698609 -129.2117 a 104352.7
Q2 1990 51,681.60 -26.5 702.25 4.713336 -124.9034 b 1.045017
Q3 1990 54,864.60 -25.5 650.25 4.739292 -120.852 n 58
Q4 1990 54,361.60 -24.5 600.25 4.735292 -116.0147 PDB (miliar RP)
Q1 1991 58,937.20 -23.5 552.25 4.770389 -112.1042
500,000.00
Q2 1991 61,199.50 -22.5 506.25 4.786748 -107.7018
450,000.00
Q3 1991 65,067.00 -21.5 462.25 4.813361 -103.4873
400,000.00
Q4 1991 64,764.90 -20.5 420.25 350,000.00
4.81134 -98.63246
Q1 1992 66,641.00 -19.5 380.25 300,000.00
4.823742 -94.06296
Q2 1992 68,764.60 -18.5 342.25 250,000.00
4.837365 -89.49125
Q3 1992 73,472.90 -17.5 306.25 200,000.00
4.866127 -85.15723
Q4 1992 73,516.40 -16.5 272.25 150,000.00
4.866384 -80.29534
Q1 1993 77,581.60 -15.5 240.25 100,000.00
4.889759 -75.79126
Q2 1993 80,430.70 -14.5 210.25 4.905422
50,000.00 -71.12862
Q3 1993 85,523.70 -13.5 182.25 4.932086
0.00 -66.58317
90 990 991 992 993 993 994 995 996 996 997 998 999 999 000 001 002 002 003
Q4 1993 86,239.80 -12.5 156.25 4.935708 19 -61.69635
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
Q Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3
1
Q1 1994 87,979.00 -11.5 132.25 4.944379 -56.86036
Q2 1994 92,988.40 -10.5 110.25 4.968429 -52.1685
Q3 1994 99,809.70 -9.5 90.25 4.999173 -47.49214
Q4 1994 101,442.50 -8.5 72.25 5.00622 -42.55287
Q1 1995 106,543.20 -7.5 56.25 5.027526 -37.70644
Q2 1995 111,668.10 -6.5 42.25 5.047929 -32.81154
Q3 1995 117,120.00 -5.5 30.25 5.068631 -27.87747
Q4 1995 119,182.80 -4.5 20.25 5.076214 -22.84296
Q1 1996 122,529.50 -3.5 12.25 5.088241 -17.80884
Q2 1996 128,845.50 -2.5 6.25 5.110069 -12.77517
Q3 1996 136,939.80 -1.5 2.25 5.13653 -7.704795
Q4 1996 144,253.20 -0.5 0.25 5.159125 -2.579563
Q1 1997 145,800.90 0.5 0.25 5.16376 2.58188
Q2 1997 149,405.70 1.5 2.25 5.174367 7.761551
Q3 1997 163,236.70 2.5 6.25 5.212818 13.03204
Q4 1997 169,252.10 3.5 12.25 5.228534 18.29987
Q1 1998 211,574.90 4.5 20.25 5.325464 23.96459
Q2 1998 222,809.00 5.5 30.25 5.347933 29.41363
Q3 1998 264,263.40 6.5 42.25 5.422037 35.24324
Q4 1998 257,106.10 7.5 56.25 5.410112 40.57584
Q1 1999 275,226.50 8.5 72.25 5.43969 46.23737
Q2 1999 271,595.50 9.5 90.25 5.433923 51.62226
Q3 1999 277,558.00 10.5 110.25 5.443354 57.15521
Q4 1999 275,351.60 11.5 132.25 5.439888 62.55871
Q1 2000 293,416.08 12.5 156.25 5.467484 68.34355
Q2 2000 305,832.17 13.5 182.25 5.485483 74.05402
Q3 2000 327,088.15 14.5 210.25 5.514665 79.96264
Q4 2000 338,582.36 15.5 240.25 5.529664 85.7098
Q1 2001 352,265.61 16.5 272.25 5.54687 91.52336
Q2 2001 372,088.13 17.5 306.25 5.570646 97.4863
Q3 2001 375,471.81 18.5 342.25 5.574577 103.1297
Q4 2001 367,829.28 19.5 380.25 5.565646 108.5301
Q1 2002 388,571.57 20.5 420.25 5.589471 114.5842
Q2 2002 396,873.62 21.5 462.25 5.598652 120.371
Q3 2002 413,534.15 22.5 506.25 5.616511 126.3715
Q4 2002 411,585.60 23.5 552.25 5.61446 131.9398
Q1 2003 442,734.64 24.5 600.25 5.646144 138.3305
Q2 2003 438,257.31 25.5 650.25 5.641729 143.8641
Q3 2003 454,168.69 26.5 702.25 5.657217 149.9163
Q4 2003 451530.29 27.5 756.25 5.654687 155.5039
Jumlah 11,255,317.06 0.00 14,630.00 291.07 279.77
Rata 200,987.80 0.00 261.25 5.20 5.00

7.389056
 Periode t Forecast
Q1 1990 -27.5 31089.61
Q2 1990 -26.5 32489.16
Q3 1990 -25.5 33951.71
Q4 1990 -24.5 35480.1
Q1 1991 -23.5 37077.3
Q2 1991 -22.5 38746.4
Q3 1991 -21.5 40490.63
Q4 1991 -20.5 42313.38
Q1 1992 -19.5 44218.19
Q2 1992 -18.5 46208.75
Q3 1992 -17.5 48288.91
Q4 1992 -16.5 50462.71
Q1 1993 -15.5 52734.38
Q2 1993 -14.5 55108.3
Q3 1993 -13.5 57589.09
99 999 000 001 002 002 003
1 2 2 Q4 2 1993
2 2 -12.5 60181.56
Q4 Q3 Q2 Q1 Q4 Q3
Q1 1994 -11.5 62890.74
Q2 1994 -10.5 65721.87
Q3 1994 -9.5 68680.45
Q4 1994 -8.5 71772.21
Q1 1995 -7.5 75003.16
Q2 1995 -6.5 78379.55
Q3 1995 -5.5 81907.93
Q4 1995 -4.5 85595.15
Q1 1996 -3.5 89448.36
Q2 1996 -2.5 93475.03
Q3 1996 -1.5 97682.96
Q4 1996 -0.5 102080.3
Q1 1997 0.5 106675.6
Q2 1997 1.5 111477.8
Q3 1997 2.5 116496.2
Q4 1997 3.5 121740.4
Q1 1998 4.5 127220.8
Q2 1998 5.5 132947.9
Q3 1998 6.5 138932.7
Q4 1998 7.5 145187
Q1 1999 8.5 151722.8
Q2 1999 9.5 158552.9
Q3 1999 10.5 165690.4
Q4 1999 11.5 173149.3
Q1 2000 12.5 180943.9
Q2 2000 13.5 189089.3
Q3 2000 14.5 197601.5
Q4 2000 15.5 206496.9
Q1 2001 16.5 215792.7
Q2 2001 17.5 225506.9
Q3 2001 18.5 235658.5
Q4 2001 19.5 246267.1
Q1 2002 20.5 257353.2
Q2 2002 21.5 268938.4
Q3 2002 22.5 281045.1
Q4 2002 23.5 293696.8
Q1 2003 24.5 306918
Q2 2003 25.5 320734.5
Q3 2003 26.5 335172.9
Q4 2003 27.5 350261.2
Q1 2004 28.5 366028.8
Q2 2004 29.5 382506.2
Q3 2004 30.5 399725.4
Q4 2004 31.5 417719.7
 Produk Domestik Bruto Ramalan Error
Periode PDB (miliar RP) Linear(a) Kuadratik(b) Eksponential(c) (a) (b)
Q1 1990 49,958.40 -13692.59 57008.248894 31089.60784743 63,650.99 -7,049.85
Q2 1990 51,681.60 -5741.464 56241.222139 32489.158195 57,423.06 -4,559.62
Q3 1990 54,864.60 2209.662 55796.608365 33951.71162659 52,654.94 -932.01
Q4 1990 54,361.60 10160.79 55674.407573 35480.10433069 44,200.81 -1,312.81
Q1 1991 58,937.20 18111.91 55874.619761 37077.30017154 40,825.29 3,062.58
Q2 1991 61,199.50 26063.04 56397.244931 38746.39643665 35,136.46 4,802.26
Q3 1991 65,067.00 34014.16 57242.283082 40490.62984306 31,052.84 7,824.72
Q4 1991 64,764.90 41965.29 58409.734214 42313.38281403 22,799.61 6,355.17
Q1 1992 66,641.00 49916.42 59899.598328 44218.19003819 16,724.58 6,741.40
Q2 1992 68,764.60 57867.54 61711.875422 46208.74532407 10,897.06 7,052.72
Q3 1992 73,472.90 65818.67 63846.565498 48288.90876312 7,654.23 9,626.33
Q4 1992 73,516.40 73769.79 66303.668555 50462.71421524 -253.39 7,212.73
Q1 1993 77,581.60 81720.92 69083.184593 52734.37713121 -4,139.32 8,498.42
Q2 1993 80,430.70 89672.04 72185.113612 55108.30272734 -9,241.34 8,245.59
Q3 1993 85,523.70 97623.17 75609.455612 57589.09452807 -12,099.47 9,914.24
Q4 1993 86,239.80 105574.3 79356.210594 60181.56329314 -19,334.50 6,883.59
Q1 1994 87,979.00 113525.4 83425.378556 62890.73634663 -25,546.42 4,553.62
Q2 1994 92,988.40 121476.5 87816.9595 65721.86732598 -28,488.15 5,171.44
Q3 1994 99,809.70 129427.7 92530.953425 68680.44636982 -29,617.97 7,278.75
Q4 1994 101,442.50 137378.8 97567.360332 71772.21076452 -35,936.30 3,875.14
Q1 1995 106,543.20 145329.9 102926.18022 75003.1560699 -38,786.72 3,617.02
Q2 1995 111,668.10 153281.1 108607.41309 78379.5477459 -41,612.95 3,060.69
Q3 1995 117,120.00 161232.2 114611.05894 81907.93330252 -44,112.18 2,508.94
Q4 1995 119,182.80 169183.3 120937.11777 85595.15499681 -50,000.50 -1,754.32
Q1 1996 122,529.50 177134.4 127585.58958 89448.36310138 -54,604.93 -5,056.09
Q2 1996 128,845.50 185085.6 134556.47437 93475.02977025 -56,240.05 -5,710.97
Q3 1996 136,939.80 193036.7 141849.77215 97682.96352888 -56,096.88 -4,909.97
Q4 1996 144,253.20 200987.8 149465.4829 102080.3244164 -56,734.60 -5,212.28
Q1 1997 145,800.90 208938.9 157403.60664 106675.6398099 -63,138.03 -11,602.71
Q2 1997 149,405.70 216890.1 165664.14336 111477.8209601 -67,484.36 -16,258.44
Q3 1997 163,236.70 224841.2 174247.09306 116496.1802728 -61,604.48 -11,010.39
Q4 1997 169,252.10 232792.3 183152.45574 121740.4493672 -63,540.21 -13,900.36
Q1 1998 211,574.90 240743.4 192380.2314 127220.7979474 -29,168.53 19,194.67
Q2 1998 222,809.00 248694.6 201930.42004 132947.8535236 -25,885.56 20,878.58
Q3 1998 264,263.40 256645.7 211803.02167 138932.7220211 7,617.72 52,460.38
Q4 1998 257,106.10 264596.8 221998.03627 145187.009317 -7,490.71 35,108.06
Q1 1999 275,226.50 272547.9 232515.46386 151722.8437459 2,678.56 42,711.04
Q2 1999 271,595.50 280499.1 243355.30443 158552.8996199 -8,903.56 28,240.20
Q3 1999 277,558.00 288450.2 254517.55797 165690.4218061 -10,892.19 23,040.44
Q4 1999 275,351.60 296401.3 266002.2245 173149.2514113 -21,049.71 9,349.38
Q1 2000 293,416.08 304352.4 277809.30401 180943.8526228 -10,936.36 15,606.78
Q2 2000 305,832.17 312303.6 289938.79651 189089.3407573 -6,471.39 15,893.37
Q3 2000 327,088.15 320254.7 302390.70198 197601.5115726 6,833.46 24,697.45
Q4 2000 338,582.36 328205.8 315165.02043 206496.8718987 10,376.54 23,417.34
Q1 2001 352,265.61 336156.9 328261.75187 215792.6716481 16,108.67 24,003.86
Q2 2001 372,088.13 344108.1 341680.89629 225506.9372667 27,980.06 30,407.23
Q3 2001 375,471.81 352059.2 355422.45369 235658.5066907 23,412.62 20,049.36
Q4 2001 367,829.28 360010.3 369486.42406 246267.0658776 7,818.96 -1,657.14
Q1 2002 388,571.57 367961.4 383872.80742 257353.1869807 20,610.13 4,698.76
Q2 2002 396,873.62 375912.6 398581.60377 268938.3682429 20,961.05 -1,707.98
Q3 2002 413,534.15 383863.7 413612.81309 281045.0756866 29,670.45 -78.66
Q4 2002 411,585.60 391814.8 428966.43539 293696.7866792 19,770.78 -17,380.84
Q1 2003 442,734.64 399765.9 444642.47068 306918.0354609 42,968.69 -1,907.83
Q2 2003 438,257.31 407717.1 460640.91894 320734.4607214 30,540.24 -22,383.61
Q3 2003 454,168.69 415668.2 476961.78019 335172.8553188 38,500.49 -22,793.09
Q4 2003 451530.29 423619.3 493605.05442 350261.218236 27,910.97 -42,074.76
JUMLAH -222,631.52 306,788.49
BIAS -3,975.56 5,478.37
MSE
MAD
MAPE
RMSE

Metode terbaik berdasarkan MAD, MSE, RMSE, da

MAD,MSE, RMSE, dan MAPE metode tersebut terk
diantara 2 metode lainnya.
Error Kuadrat Error Absolut Error
(c) (a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)
18,868.79 4,051,448,432.29 49,700,369.43 356,031,317.30 63650.99 7049.8488941 18868.79
19,192.44 3,297,408,227.31 20,790,154.05 368,349,822.44 57423.06 4559.6221392 19192.44
20,912.89 2,772,542,479.88 868,639.59 437,348,900.12 52654.94 932.00836547 20912.89
18,881.50 1,953,711,794.66 1,723,463.72 356,510,878.71 44200.81 1312.8075729 18881.5
21,859.90 1,666,704,013.69 9,379,397.72 477,855,220.51 40825.29 3062.5802385 21859.9
22,453.10 1,234,570,874.03 23,061,653.75 504,141,859.63 35136.46 4802.2550687 22453.1
24,576.37 964,278,564.66 61,226,194.84 603,997,970.09 31052.84 7824.7169178 24576.37
22,451.52 519,822,186.54 40,388,132.16 504,070,623.95 22799.61 6355.1657856 22451.52
22,422.81 279,711,698.30 45,446,496.51 502,782,406.58 16724.58 6741.4016723 22422.81
22,555.85 118,745,871.99 49,740,923.97 508,766,580.16 10897.06 7052.7245778 22555.85
25,183.99 58,587,271.36 92,666,315.95 634,233,414.62 7654.232 9626.3345022 25183.99
23,053.69 64,208.24 52,023,494.90 531,472,428.26 253.3934 7212.7314453 23053.69
24,847.22 17,133,963.01 72,223,064.44 617,384,484.29 4139.319 8498.4154073 24847.22
25,322.40 85,402,454.59 67,989,694.88 641,223,803.63 9241.345 8245.5863881 25322.4
27,934.61 146,397,187.52 98,292,241.78 780,342,182.87 12099.47 9914.2443878 27934.61
26,058.24 373,822,745.12 47,383,803.11 679,031,700.27 19334.5 6883.5894062 26058.24
25,088.26 652,619,674.27 20,735,468.25 629,420,973.14 25546.42 4553.6214435 25088.26
27,266.53 811,574,556.31 26,743,796.84 743,463,804.06 28488.15 5171.4404996 27266.53
31,129.25 877,224,345.11 52,980,151.70 969,030,431.57 29617.97 7278.7465745 31129.25
29,670.29 1,291,417,589.09 15,016,707.45 880,326,063.32 35936.3 3875.1396683 29670.29
31,540.04 1,504,410,016.46 13,082,832.10 994,774,371.11 38786.72 3617.0197809 31540.04
33,288.55 1,731,637,644.72 9,367,804.37 1,108,127,711.17 41612.95 3060.6869122 33288.55
35,212.07 1,945,884,084.20 6,294,785.25 1,239,889,641.11 44112.18 2508.9410625 35212.07
33,587.65 2,500,050,184.67 3,077,630.83 1,128,129,896.86 50000.5 1754.3177685 33587.65
33,081.14 2,981,698,112.07 25,564,041.85 1,094,361,618.51 54604.93 5056.0895806 33081.14
35,370.47 3,162,943,588.83 32,615,228.30 1,251,070,164.27 56240.05 5710.9743739 35370.47
39,256.84 3,146,859,827.17 24,107,826.50 1,541,099,209.72 56096.88 4909.9721484 39256.84
42,172.88 3,218,815,363.98 27,167,893.07 1,778,551,434.99 56734.6 5212.2829041 42172.88
39,125.26 3,986,410,875.53 134,622,801.40 1,530,785,984.95 63138.03 11602.706641 39125.26
37,927.88 4,554,138,310.43 264,336,980.46 1,438,524,008.47 67484.36 16258.443359 37927.88
46,740.52 3,795,112,170.69 121,228,755.30 2,184,676,184.37 61604.48 11010.393058 46740.52
47,511.65 4,037,357,961.72 193,219,889.66 2,257,356,945.85 63540.21 13900.355739 47511.65
84,354.10 850,803,325.61 368,435,302.66 7,115,614,533.11 29168.53 19194.6686 84354.1
89,861.15 670,062,156.51 435,915,101.03 8,075,025,646.06 25885.56 20878.579957 89861.15
125,330.68 58,029,588.82 2,752,091,294.87 15,707,778,842.65 7617.715 52460.378333 125330.7
111,919.09 56,110,739.90 1,232,576,138.74 12,525,882,859.32 7490.71 35108.063728 111919.1
123,503.66 7,174,705.42 1,824,232,608.32 15,253,153,108.13 2678.564 42711.036142 123503.7
113,042.60 79,273,409.87 797,508,646.09 12,778,629,500.70 8903.562 28240.195575 113042.6
111,867.58 118,639,745.03 530,861,968.75 12,514,355,050.98 10892.19 23040.442026 111867.6
102,202.35 443,090,419.02 87,410,822.17 10,445,320,057.05 21049.71 9349.3754961 102202.3
112,472.23 119,603,942.46 243,571,456.65 12,650,001,931.19 10936.36 15606.775985 112472.2
116,742.83 41,878,945.98 252,599,320.99 13,628,888,179.59 6471.394 15893.373493 116742.8
129,486.64 46,696,173.69 609,963,938.69 16,766,789,531.23 6833.46 24697.44802 129486.6
 132,085.49 107,672,668.75 548,371,792.31 17,446,576,166.95 10376.54 23417.339565 132085.5
136,472.94 259,489,199.64 576,185,205.10 18,624,862,902.40 16108.67 24003.85813 136472.9
146,581.19 782,883,912.22 924,599,862.06 21,486,046,063.12 27980.06 30407.233713 146581.2
139,813.30 548,150,637.76 401,976,688.63 19,547,759,782.25 23412.62 20049.356315 139813.3
121,562.21 61,136,156.81 2,746,126.45 14,777,371,902.34 7818.961 1657.1440645 121562.2
131,218.38 424,777,279.89 22,078,369.74 17,218,264,042.21 20610.13 4698.7625751 131218.4
127,935.25 439,365,615.61 2,917,208.55 16,367,428,642.14 20961.05 1707.9837664 127935.3
132,489.07 880,335,856.27 6,187.88 17,553,354,812.41 29670.45 78.663089168 132489.1
117,888.81 390,883,685.07 302,093,438.96 13,897,772,306.18 19770.78 17380.835393 117888.8
135,816.60 1,846,308,566.55 3,639,817.90 18,446,150,068.53 42968.69 1907.8306782 135816.6
117,522.85 932,706,086.13 501,025,949.38 13,811,620,102.55 30540.24 22383.608944 117522.8
118,995.83 1,482,287,843.12 519,524,960.49 14,160,008,671.47 38500.49 22793.090192 118995.8
101,269.07 779,022,010.01 1,770,285,801.04 10,255,424,895.94 27910.97 42074.76442 101269.1
3,814,978.50 69,164,888,948.56 16,413,684,641.58 380,327,211,635.42 ### 705,295.97 ###
68,124.62
1235087302.65286 293101511.456788 6791557350.63252
29574.82 12594.570937 68124.62

35143.8088808379 17120.2076931557 82410.9055321716

k berdasarkan MAD, MSE, RMSE, dan MAPE terkecil adalah Metode Kuadratik. Karena
SE, dan MAPE metode tersebut terkecil maka akurasi peramalannya adalah yang terbaik
ode lainnya.
 Absolut Error/Y
(a) (b) (c)
1.2740798194 0.141114
1.1110929915 0.088225 0.371359
0.9597251752 0.016987 0.381173
0.8130888743 0.02415 0.347331
0.692691313 0.051963 0.370902
0.5741298663 0.078469 0.366884
0.4772439954 0.120256 0.377709
0.3520365098 0.098127 0.346662
0.2509653764 0.10116 0.336472
0.1584690081 0.102563 0.328016
0.1041776254 0.131019 0.342766
0.0034467608 0.098111 0.313586
0.0533543926 0.109542 0.320272
0.1148982273 0.102518 0.314835
0.1414750595 0.115924 0.32663
0.2241945859 0.079819 0.30216
0.2903695421 0.051758 0.285162
0.3063623812 0.055614 0.293225
0.2967444381 0.072926 0.311886
0.3542528925 0.0382 0.292484
0.3640469288 0.033949 0.296031
0.3726485043 0.027409 0.298103
0.3766408482 0.021422 0.300649
0.4195278332 0.01472 0.281816
0.4456471914 0.041264 0.269985
0.4364921805 0.044324 0.274518
0.4096462748 0.035855 0.286672
0.3932987597 0.036133 0.292353
0.4330428025 0.079579 0.268347
0.451685284 0.108821 0.253858
0.3773935747 0.06745 0.286336
0.3754175425 0.082128 0.280715
0.1378638635 0.090723 0.398696
0.1161782461 0.093706 0.40331
0.0288262221 0.198515 0.474264
0.0291347045 0.136551 0.435303
0.0097322171 0.155185 0.448735
0.0327824343 0.103979 0.416217
0.0392429234 0.083011 0.403042
0.0764466705 0.033954 0.37117
0.0372725269 0.05319 0.38332
0.0211599533 0.051968 0.381722
0.0208917989 0.075507 0.395877
0.0306470312 0.069163 0.390113
0.045728757 0.068141 0.387415
0.0751974076 0.081721 0.393942
0.0623551927 0.053398 0.372367
0.021257039 0.004505 0.330485
0.0530407453 0.012092 0.337694
0.0528154277 0.004304 0.322358
0.0717484983 0.00019 0.320382
0.0480356421 0.042229 0.286426
0.0970529274 0.004309 0.306768
0.0696856309 0.051074 0.268159
0.0847713467 0.050186 0.262008
0.0618141604 0.093183 0.22428
14.73 3.88 18.43

26.307085583 6.932651 33.51446