Daily cars ferried

river # ferried Day nr. Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday

Sunday 827 1 0 0 0 0
Monday 869 2 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 865 3 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 860 4 0 0 1 0
Thursday 876 5 0 0 0 1
Friday 863 6 0 0 0 0
Saturday 830 7 0 0 0 0
Sunday 858 8 0 0 0 0
Monday 908 9 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 906 10 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 893 11 0 0 1 0
Thursday 908 12 0 0 0 1
Friday 900 13 0 0 0 0
Saturday 865 14 0 0 0 0
Sunday 898 15 0 0 0 0
Monday 944 16 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 927 17 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 930 18 0 0 1 0
Thursday 942 19 0 0 0 1
Friday 935 20 0 0 0 0
Saturday 897 21 0 0 0 0
Sunday 928 22 0 0 0 0
Monday 978 23 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 969 24 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 966 25 0 0 1 0
Thursday 973 26 0 0 0 1
Friday 965 27 0 0 0 0
Saturday 931 28 0 0 0 0
Sunday 963 29 0 0 0 0
Monday 1009 30 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 1010 31 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 1004 32 0 0 1 0
Thursday 1015 33 0 0 0 1
Friday 1002 34 0 0 0 0
Saturday 970 35 0 0 0 0
Sunday 1003 36 0 0 0 0
Monday 1046 37 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 1046 38 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 1044 39 0 0 1 0
Thursday 1055 40 0 0 0 1
Friday 1039 41 0 0 0 0
Saturday 997 42 0 0 0 0
Sunday 43 0 0 0 0
Monday 44 1 0 0 0
Tuesday 45 0 1 0 0
Wednesday 46 0 0 1 0
Thursday 47 0 0 0 1
Friday 48 0 0 0 0
Saturday 49 0 0 0 0

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9987206912
R Square 0.997443019
Adjusted R Square 0.9969165818
Standard Error 3.5535350068
Observations 42

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 7 167479.13741 23925.591059 1894.7044675 3.8814419E-42
Residual 34 429.33877551 12.627611044
Total 41 167908.47619

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 820 1.680655176 487.67326248 5.898466E-67 816.19509055 823.02609506
Day nr. 5 0.0458663852 109.86405484 5.739409E-45 4.945855346 5.1322787648
Monday 41 2.0521470237 20.041253934 2.08644E-20 36.95713509 45.298064132
Tuesday 31 2.0536841487 15.056777796 1.324702E-16 26.748277554 35.095454224
Wednesday 22 2.0562434703 10.480016502 3.463951E-12 17.370675998 25.728255003
Thursday 29 2.0598211782 13.841200754 1.568324E-15 24.324338166 32.696458725
Friday 13 2.0644119777 6.1218391449 5.986472E-07 8.4426081497 16.833387963
Saturday -28 2.0700091284 -13.5592328 2.844578E-15 -32.274500351 -23.86097098
Friday Saturday Forecast ABS Diff
0 0 825 2
0 0 871 2
0 0 866 1
0 0 861 1
0 0 873 3 An international ferry company ferries daily
1 0 862 1 coast of Great Britain 7 days a week. The ma
cars ferride every day for the last 42 days.In
0 1 827 3
to make a forecast for the days 43 until 49.
0 0 860 2
0 0 906 2 Required:
0 0 901 5
Make a forecast for the days 43 unit 49 usin
0 0 897 4
0 0 909 1
1 0 898 2
0 1 862 3
0 0 895 3
0 0 941 3
0 0 936 9
0 0 932 2
0 0 944 2
1 0 933 2 1100
0 1 897 0
0 0 930 2 1050
0 0 977 1
0 0 971 2 1000
0 0 967 1
0 0 979 6 950
1 0 968 3
0 1 933 2 900
0 0 966 3
0 0 1012 3 850
0 0 1007 3
0 0 1002 2
800
0 0 1014 1 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37
1 0 1004 2
0 1 968 2
0 0 1001 2
0 0 1047 1
0 0 1042 4
0 0 1038 6
0 0 1050 5
1 0 1039 0 The smaller the better
0 1 1003 6 MAD
0 0 1036 2.62
 0 0 1082
0 0 1077
0 0 1073
0 0 1085
1 0 1074
0 1 1038

Lower 95,0% Upper 95,0%

816.19509055 823.02609506
4.945855346 5.1322787648
36.95713509 45.298064132
26.748277554 35.095454224
17.370675998 25.728255003
24.324338166 32.696458725
8.4426081497 16.833387963
-32.274500351 -23.86097098
y company ferries daily cargo and cars from The Netherlands to the East
7 days a week. The management has collected data about the number of
for the last 42 days.In order to prepare for the planning process they want
r the days 43 until 49.

he days 43 unit 49 using the binary regression method.

22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49
 Absolute
deviation
(remove
Daily cars Moving Day negatives
ferried river # ferried Day nr. average factor Day index Forecast ) Sqr Error
Sunday 827 1 0.983 826 1.19
Monday 869 2 1.028 868 0.72
Tuesday 865 3 1.016 864 1.11
Wednesday 860 4 856 1.0050 1.007 861 0.58
Thursday 876 5 860 1.0184 1.014 872 4.32
Friday 863 6 866 0.9969 0.998 863 0.07
Saturday 830 7 872 0.9523 0.955 831 1.24
Sunday 858 8 876 0.9791 0.983 860 2.48
Monday 908 9 881 1.0308 1.028 905 3.49
Tuesday 906 10 886 1.0224 1.016 900 6.27
Wednesday 893 11 891 1.0021 1.007 896 3.06
Thursday 908 12 897 1.0124 1.014 907 0.59
Friday 900 13 902 0.9978 0.998 898 1.91
Saturday 865 14 905 0.9558 0.955 865 0.08
Sunday 898 15 910 0.9865 0.983 895 2.85
Monday 944 16 915 1.0315 1.028 941 3.26
Tuesday 927 17 920 1.0075 1.016 936 8.56 Formel for forecast
Wednesday 930 18 925 1.0057 1.007 932 1.55
Thursday 942 19 929 1.0140 1.014 943 1.15
Friday 935 20 934 1.0012 0.998 933 1.74
Saturday 897 21 940 0.9544 0.955 899 1.61
Sunday 928 22 945 0.9820 0.983 930 1.81
Monday 978 23 949 1.0301 1.028 977 1.03
Tuesday 969 24 954 1.0160 1.016 971 2.40
Wednesday 966 25 959 1.0077 1.007 967 1.04
Thursday 973 26 964 1.0098 1.014 979 5.88
Friday 965 27 968 0.9969 0.998 968 3.43
Saturday 931 28 974 0.9560 0.955 932 1.29
Sunday 963 29 979 0.9834 0.983 964 1.48
Monday 1009 30 985 1.0241 1.028 1013 4.20
Tuesday 1010 31 991 1.0196 1.016 1007 2.77
Wednesday 1004 32 996 1.0079 1.007 1003 1.48
Thursday 1015 33 1002 1.0131 1.014 1015 0.39
Friday 1002 34 1007 0.9949 0.998 1004 1.60
Saturday 970 35 1012 0.9582 0.955 966 4.03
Sunday 1003 36 1018 0.9853 0.983 999 3.86
Monday 1046 37 1024 1.0218 1.028 1049 3.44
Tuesday 1046 38 1029 1.0165 1.016 1043 2.93
Wednesday 1044 39 1033 1.0108 1.007 1038 5.99
Thursday 1055 40 1.014 1050 4.65
Friday 1039 41 0.998 1039 0.23
Saturday 997 42 0.955 1000 2.65
Sunday 43 0.983 1034
Monday 44 1.028 1086
Tuesday 45 1.016 1079
Wednesday 46 1.007 1073
Thursday 47 1.014 1086
Friday 48 0.998 1074
Saturday 49 0.955 1033

MAD
2.49
The smaller the better
 An international ferry company ferries daily cargo and cars from The Netherlands to the East
coast of Great Britain 7 days a week. The management has collected data about the number of
cars ferride every day for the last 42 days.In order to prepare for the planning process they want
to make a forecast for the days 43 until 49.
Required:

Make a forecast for the days 43 unit 49 using the binary regression method.

Formel for forecast Ren lineær formel =intercept*slope+day nr)*day index

Constant Trend + seasonal variation + noise

1120
1100
1080
f(x) = 5.03656922228351 x + 834.844714101857
1060 R² = 0.999262053072158
1040
1020
1000
980
960
940
920
900
880
860
840
820
800
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
The Netherlands to the East
ted data about the number of
he planning process they want

n method.

0 45 50
Daily cars
ferried river # ferried Weeknr. Moving Avg Day Factor Day index Forecast MSE Formula
Sunday 827 1
Monday 869 2
Tuesday 865 3
Wednesday 860 4
Thursday 876 5
Friday 863 6
Saturday 830 7
Sunday 858 8
Monday 908 9
Tuesday 906 10
Wednesday 893 11
Thursday 908 12
Friday 900 13
Saturday 865 14
Sunday 898 15
Monday 944 16
Tuesday 927 17
Wednesday 930 18
Thursday 942 19
Friday 935 20
Saturday 897 21
Sunday 928 22
Monday 978 23
Tuesday 969 24
Wednesday 966 25
Thursday 973 26
Friday 965 27
Saturday 931 28
Sunday 963 29
Monday 1009 30
Tuesday 1010 31
Wednesday 1004 32
Thursday 1015 33
Friday 1002 34
Saturday 970 35
Sunday 1003 36
Monday 1046 37
Tuesday 1046 38
Wednesday 1044 39
Thursday 1055 40
Friday 1039 41
Saturday 997 42
Sunday 43
Monday 44
Tuesday 45
Wednesday 46
Thursday 47
Friday 48
Saturday 49
An international ferry company ferries daily cargo and cars from The Netherlands to the East
coast of Great Britain 7 days a week. The management has collected data about the number of
cars ferride every day for the last 42 days.In order to prepare for the planning process they
want to make a forecast for the days 43 until 49.

Required:

Make a forecast for the days 43 unit 49 using the centered moving average method.
ds to the East
t the number of
process they

thod.
 Daily cars ferried
river # ferried Weeknr. Level Trend Day Index Forecast
Starting values 834 5.0
1 Sunday 827 1 839 5.1 0.983 825
2 Monday 869 2 844 5.1 1.028 868
3 Tuesday 865 3 849 5.1 1.016 863
4 Wednesday 860 4 855 5.1 1.007 860
5 Thursday 876 5 860 5.2 1.014 871
6 Friday 863 6 865 5.2 0.998 863
7 Saturday 830 7 870 5.1 0.955 831
8 Sunday 858 8 875 5.1 0.980 858
9 Monday 908 9 880 5.1 1.031 908
10 Tuesday 906 10 886 5.1 1.023 906
11 Wednesday 893 11 891 5.1 1.002 893
12 Thursday 908 12 896 5.1 1.013 908
13 Friday 900 13 901 5.1 0.999 900
14 Saturday 865 14 906 5.1 0.955 865
15 Sunday 898 15 911 5.1 0.985 898
16 Monday 944 16 917 5.1 1.030 944
17 Tuesday 927 17 922 5.1 1.006 927
18 Wednesday 930 18 927 5.1 1.003 930
19 Thursday 942 19 932 5.1 1.011 942
20 Friday 935 20 937 5.1 0.998 935
21 Saturday 897 21 942 5.1 0.952 897
22 Sunday 928 22 947 5.1 0.980 928
23 Monday 978 23 953 5.1 1.027 978
24 Tuesday 969 24 958 5.1 1.012 969
25 Wednesday 966 25 963 5.1 1.003 966
26 Thursday 973 26 968 5.1 1.005 973
27 Friday 965 27 973 5.1 0.992 965
28 Saturday 931 28 978 5.1 0.952 931
29 Sunday 963 29 983 5.1 0.979 963
30 Monday 1009 30 989 5.1 1.021 1,009
31 Tuesday 1010 31 994 5.1 1.016 1,010
32 Wednesday 1004 32 999 5.1 1.005 1,004
33 Thursday 1015 33 1,004 5.1 1.011 1,015
34 Friday 1002 34 1,009 5.1 0.993 1,002
35 Saturday 970 35 1,014 5.1 0.956 970
36 Sunday 1003 36 1,019 5.1 0.984 1,003
37 Monday 1046 37 1,025 5.1 1.021 1,046
38 Tuesday 1046 38 1,030 5.1 1.016 1,046
39 Wednesday 1044 39 1,035 5.1 1.009 1,044
40 Thursday 1055 40 1,040 5.1 1.014 1,055
41 Friday 1039 41 1,045 5.1 0.994 1,039
42 Saturday 997 42 1,050 5.1 0.949 997
43 Sunday 43 1,055
44 Monday 44 1,061
45 Tuesday 45 1,066
46 Wednesday 46 1,071
47 Thursday 47 1,076
48 Friday 48 1,081
49 Saturday 49 1,086
AD α β γ An international ferry company ferries daily
0.06 0.23 1.00 coast of Great Britain 7 days a week. The ma
cars ferride every day for the last 42 days.In
2.0
want to make a forecast for the days 43 until
1.4
1.7 Required:
0.2
Make a forecast for the days 43 unit 49 using
4.7
0.0 Compare the 3 MSE values to evaluate wihic
1.4 results!
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
𝐿(𝑡+1)=𝛼∗[𝐴(𝑡+1)/𝑠(𝑡+1) ]+(1−𝛼)∗
0.0 𝑇(𝑡+1)=𝛽∗[𝑙(𝑡+𝑡)−𝑙(𝑡)]+(1−𝛽)∗𝑇(𝑡)
0.0 𝑆(𝑡+1)=𝛾∗[𝐴(𝑡+1)/𝐿(𝑡+1) ]+(1−𝛾)∗
0.0
0.0 𝛼 = smooting constant for level
𝛽 = Smoothing constant for trend
0.0
𝛾 = smoothing constant for seasonal fac
0.0
0.0 Level er intercept fra lineær faktor
0.0 Trend er hældning ved lineær faktor
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1150
0.0
0.0
1100
0.0
0.0
1050
0.0
0.0
1000
0.0
0.0
950
0.0
0.0
900
0.0
850
MAD
0.272 800
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
850

800
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
ry company ferries daily cargo and cars from The Netherlands to the East
n 7 days a week. The management has collected data about the number of
ay for the last 42 days.In order to prepare for the planning process they
cast for the days 43 until 49.

the days 43 unit 49 using the Holt-Winter forecasting method.

values to evaluate wihich of the three forecasting methods gives the best

𝑡+1)/𝑠(𝑡+1) ]+(1−𝛼)∗[𝑙(𝑡)+𝑇(𝑡)]
+𝑡)−𝑙(𝑡)]+(1−𝛽)∗𝑇(𝑡)
𝑡+1)/𝐿(𝑡+1) ]+(1−𝛾)∗𝑆(𝑡−𝑝+1)
onstant for level
constant for trend
onstant for seasonal factor
pt fra lineær faktor
ng ved lineær faktor

27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Quarter Period nr. Blank cd's (*1.000) Forecast MAD
1999 1 22,550 22528 22
2000 2 19,677 19680 3
2001 3 18,231 18184 47
2002 4 17,159 17192 33
2003 5 16,396 16460 64
2004 6 15,927 15885 42
2005 7 15,453 15414 39
2006 8 14,974 15018 44
2007 9 14,746 14677 69
2008 10 14,371 14379 8
2009 11 14,113 14114 1
2010 12 13,770 13877 107
2011 13 13,636 13662 26
2012 14 13,456 13466 10
2013 15 13,317 13286 31
2014 16 13,121 13120 1
2015 17 12,963 12965 2
2016 18 12,802 12822 20
2017 19 12,790 12687 103
2018 20 12561 35 MAD
Der er en formel for det her
LN(CD's) LN(jaar) LN(constant) EXP value
10.02 0.00 -0.1949 22,528
9.89 0.69 -0.1949 22,528
9.81 1.10 -0.1949 22,528
9.75 1.39 -0.1949 22,528
9.70 1.61 -0.1949 22,528
9.68 1.79 -0.1949 22,528
9.65 1.95 -0.1949 22,528
9.61 2.08 -0.1949 22,528
9.60 2.20 -0.1949 22,528
9.57 2.30 -0.1949 22,528
9.55 2.40 -0.1949 22,528
9.53 2.48 -0.1949 22,528
9.52 2.56 -0.1949 22,528
9.51 2.64 -0.1949 22,528
9.50 2.71 -0.1949 22,528
9.48 2.77 -0.1949 22,528
9.47 2.83 -0.1949 22,528
9.46 2.89 -0.1949 22,528
9.46 2.94 -0.1949 22,528
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.999768325
R Square 0.999536704
Adjusted R 0.999509451
Standard Er0.003486993
Observatio 19

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 0.44595485460766 0.44595485460766 36676.56965 8.714E-30
Residual 17 0.00020670505995 1.2159121174E-05
Total 18 0.44616155966761

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%

Intercept 10.02249588 0.00225420681707 4446.12970198995 5.28992E-53 10.01774 10.02725184
LN(jaar) -0.19493034 0.00101785307844 -191.5112781275 8.71412E-30 -0.197078 -0.19278286
An e-trader in secondary goods still has a collection of empty cd's.
Although he knows that demand in cd's is falling rapidly he wants to make a forecast to see
how much of the empty cd's can stil be sold in period 20. He has data for the first 19 periods.

Required:
Make a forecast for sales of empty cd's in period 20.
Give particular attention to the functional format of the demand curve of cd's.

22000
f(x) = 22527.586048 x^-0.194930344
20000

18000

16000

14000

12000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
LN(jaar) constante
-0.19493 -0.1949
0.001018 0.0023
0.999537 0.0035
36676.57 17.0000
0.445955 0.0002

Lower 95,0%
Upper 95,0%
10.01774 10.02725
-0.197078 -0.192783
 ecast to see
rst 19 periods.

194930344

13 2014 2015 2016 2017