yanor2t, 4:45 PM ‘Time fo End Ethiopia's Unwinnable Civil War | Crisis Group
STATEMENT / AFRICA 10 DECEMBER 2021
pon Time to End Ethiopia’s Unwinnable Civil
pel TRI Wa r
GROUP
Federal forces have recorded gains in recent weeks but Ethiopia's brutal civil war may well grind
on without a winner. Addis Ababa must let more aid into blockaded Tigray and the region's
dissident leadership should recognise the federal government's legitimacy pending detailed
ceasefire talks.
a's civil war has taken another turn. After
months on the back foot, federal troops and allied
millitias launched a counteroffensive in late
November, retaking several towns in Amhara and
Afar regions. Tigray forees, which had come within
a few hundred kilometres of the capital, halted
their advance and withdrew north. Tigray leaders.
say the sethack is temporary. For his part, Prime
Minister Abiy Ahmed, having staked so much on
the Tigray resistance's defeat, is also committed to
keep fighting. But given the popular support and
mobilisation on both sides, neither is likely to
deliver a mortal blow to the other. More war will
Jead only to greater suffering. To save countless
Ethiopian lives, the parties would be far better off
inaugurating peace talks. That would require
Tigray's leaders acknowledging the government's
legitimacy and Addis Ababa ending its de facto
blockade on Tierav. which is causing mass
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‘Time fo End Ethiopia's Unwinnable Civil War | Crisis Group,
starvation. The parties should follow up by
entering detailed ceasefire talks pending an
inclusive national dialogue. Absent these steps,
Ethiopia may be in for years of war.
The last few weeks have seen the pendulum swing once more in
Ethiopia’s brutal, costly conflict, which has caused an unknown number
of fatalities, numbering at least in the tens of thousands. Tigray’s forces,
overwhelmed when war broke out in November 2020, rallied in 2021 to
drive federal and Eritrean troops out of the region in June. Leaders
were able to muster support thanks in part to the fury among Tigrayans
at the massacres and sexual violence that federal troops, along with
those from the Amhara region, which neighbours Tigray, and Eritrean
soldiers, had perpetrated against civilians during the initial campaign.
After moving into north-eastern Amhara in early November, Tigray’
fighters, who forged an alliance with a growing insurgency in Oromia,
Ethiopia's most populous region which surrounds the capital, captured.
the strategic cities of Dessie and Komboleha. From there, they advanced
south on the main road, and were poised for an assault on Debre
Berhan, 130km from the capital.
A major federal counteroffensive then stopped Tigray’s forees in their
tracks, Reportedly with support from drones provided by China, Iran,
‘Turkey and the United Arab Emirates, federal and allied forees pushed
back on several fronts, with the aerial threat wreaking havoc on
Tigrayan supply lines. In early December, federal troops attacked from
the east, initially at Chifra on the Afar-Amhara border. That assault
came after a failed Tigray bid in November to capture the strategic town
of Mille, to the east of Kombolcha on landlocked Ethiopia’s main trade
route, Federal forces also attacked near Komboleha in an effort to
isolate Tigray fighters farther south. Around the same time, federal and
Amhara forces pushed their opponents from Gashena, which lies to the
west of the crossroads town of Weldiya. Tigray’s commanders
responded with a major withdrawal to areas around Weldiya and parts
of Amhara to the north, At the time of writing, the sides are fighting
around Weldiya.
In addition to acquiring more drones, federal and regional authorities
met the opposition’s advance with calls for popular mobilisation, which
now look to have paid off with overwhelming manpower playing a role
in the resurgence. In an extraordinary step, Abiy on 22 November said
he would head to the conflict zone himself. On 31 October, the
leadership of the Amhara region announced it would set aside all
government resources for the struggle.
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‘Time fo End Ethiopia's Unwinnable Civil War | Crisis Group,
“Tigray’s leadership enjoys the support of many in the
region.”
Despite the latest shifts, itis unlikely the civil war will end soon as both
sides can sustain campaigns, Tigray’s leadership enjoys the support of,
many in the region, who are livid at the excesses of the military
incursion in late 2020 and demand guarantees that will foreclose the
possibility of a repeat. Together, these people compose a large army of
committed fighters who view their cause as existential. The Tigray
leadership will not accept federal and U.S. demands that they withdraw
to Tigray as they believe that step would leave Tigray vulnerable. They
would accede only in the face of a total defeat. Besides, they still aim to
achieve the ends they outlined in launching their offensives in July:
reconnecting Tigray to aid, trade and services; regaining disputed
territory in the strategic Western Tigray region that they lost to the
Amhara in the war's early months; and removing what they view as
security threats. A retreat to Tigray would likely mean shelving their
territorial claim in western Tigray and leaving Tigray open to attack by
allied forces its leaders consider bent on the region’s subjugation.
Surging threats against Tigrayans outside Tigray have compounded
Tigrayan concerns, Following the Tigray forces’ capture of Dessie and
Kombolcha, some opponents of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front
(EPLF) - which parliament classified as a terrorist organisation in May
~ directed hate speech at Tigrayans. One activist called explicitly for
genocide, A journalist demanded that all Tigrayans be placed in
concentration camps, in part due to a belief that civilians in Dessie
collaborated with Tigray fighters. On 2 November, the federal
government enacted a national state of emergency, under which
thousands of Tigrayans and Oromos have been detained without due
process on suspicion of supporting the TPLF or Oromo rebels. As the
war continues, increasing anger might trigger more mob violence and
state repression of Tigrayans. Tigray forces have also been accused of
abuses. Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch found that
they committed war crimes in Amhara, After the recent Tigrayan
retreats, reports surfaced that they had looted medical and aid supplies.
Just like Tigray’s leadership, authorities in Addis Ababa have little
appetite for secking a negotiated settlement. The prime minister is
emboldened by the recent battlefield successes and, in any case, is not
minded to make concessions to armed opponents. Indeed, even as,
Tigray forces took up positions near Debre Berhan, and seemed to be
threatening the capital, his administration rejected all their demands
and third-party entreaties for negotiations. Abiy is likely to double
down now that federal forces have retaken Dessie, Kombolcha and the
world heritage site of Lalibela. One of his generals said federal forces
will return to Mekelle, if necessary, in order to defeat the TPLF.
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That type of stance has plenty of popular support, with many
Ethiopians — especially in Addis Ababa and Amhara — agreeing with
‘Abiy that the war is a struggle for the nation’s survival. Antipathy for
the TPLF, which helmed a coalition that ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist
from 1991 to 2019, is widespread in the capital and elsewhere. Many
Amhara also point to alleged abuses by the Oromo Liberation Army
(OLA), including a number of reported massacres of civilians in recent
months and before the war's onset, as illustrating the dangers they
might face should the armed opposition prevail
Yet the alternative to negotiations ~ continuing conflict — would spell
further disaster for Ethiopia, Africa’s second most populous state and
the linchpin of the Horn. The lesson from hostilities in the past year is
that both sides are locked in a devastating, essentially unwinnable war.
In November 2020, the prime minister promised a quick, surgical “law
enforcement operation”. But despite early victories, federal troops and
their allies suffered spectacular reversals when Tigray’s forces pushed
them out of Tigray, taking thousands of prisoners and significant
materiel. Months later, Tigray's forces appeared to be knocking at Addis
Ababa’s door before the federal side rallied and drove them back, a
pattern that may continue.
“To avoid a long war, Tigray and federal authorities need
to reconsider their stances. ”
To avoid a long war, Tigray and federal authorities need to reconsider
their stances. When they were ascendant, Tigray’s leaders stated they
wanted to replace Abiy’s government with a transitional administration.
‘That destabilising goal looks unattainable for now. Instead, to build
trust and kick-start a peace process, Tigray’s leaders should recognise
the federal government as legitimate. Since October 2020, they have
denied the government's legitimacy, claiming that federal authorities
extended the Abiy administration’s term unconstitutionally by
postponing elections. In reality, the extension, made on the grounds of
the COVID-19 pandemic, was not unreasonable, and the decision-
making procedure was constitutional, Moreover, if TPLF officials want
to soften the antipathy they inspire among the public, they would do
well to reiterate explicitly that they want to be part of an inclusive
process in which all constituencies shape Ethiopia’s future. They should
stress their interest is in securing Tigray and its self-rule, not re-
establishing themselves as the dominant power nationwide.
For its part, Abiy’s government, which faces a tanking economy anda
protracted war that has come with a huge reputational cost in Western
capitals, has ample reason to shift course and try bringing fighting to a
close. A number of measures would serve this end, First, authorities
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should immediately allow unhindered aid access into Tigray as a first
step to rebuild trust but also to avoid a tide of preventable Tigrayan
deaths that would poison the environment further, rendering a
settlement even more unreachable. At times, Ethiopian officials have
suggested that they are blocking supplies only so that Tigray’s leaders
cannot divert them toward their own military campaign. Regardless, the
restrictions are a violation of international humanitarian law and many
Tigrayans and others, including former UN humanitarian coordinator
Mark Lowcock, cast the policy as an attempt to starve the region into
submission.
‘Addis Ababa can take practical steps, including removing bureaucratic
restrictions imposed by all tiers of government on relief convoys using
the route from Semera, Afar region’s capital, to Tigray’s capital Mekelle.
Although ending the de facto blockade on the region is indeed an
obligation for federal authorities and should not be part of negotiations,
getting food and medical aid into Tigray would address one of the
region’s forces main reasons for fighting, Hostilities in Amhara and Afar
have also displaced hundreds of thousands, making it essential that all
parties — the UN accuses Tigray’s forces of looting food stocks in
Kombolcha — help get humanitarian as
as into stricken Tigray
stance into those areas as well
Secondly, federal lawmakers should remove the TPLF
designation and the government should then restore federally provided
telecommunications, banking and electricity services to Tigray. At
present, the classification serves as a legal impediment to restoring
services to Tigray — even if the federal side wanted to do that — as Addis
Ababa considers the region to be governed by a banned group.
Parliament should also lift the May terrorist designation of the TPLE’s
ally, the OLA, which many of the 40 million-strong Oromo consider to
be fighting a just insurgency in defence of Oromo autonomy. In
exchange, the OLA’s leaders should agree to participate in peace talks
and the democratic process.
terrorist
Thirdly, in order to reset a derailed transition, federal authorities
should enact a comprehensive amnesty for all top jailed political leaders
such as the opposition Oromo Federalist Congress’ Jawar Mohammed
and Balderas leader Eskinder Nega, An amnesty may help convince the
armed opposition that the federal government is interested in the type
of inclusive national dialogue that they say they would facilitate if they
took power. The federal government should also release the thousands
of Tigrayan and other civilians detained under the state of emergency,
cease further arbitrary arrests and prosecute instances of hate speech.
Exchanges of prisoners of war by both sides could further build
confidence.
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“If they can, Tigray and Oromo forces will likely renew
their efforts to overthrow the federal government. ”
va
“Absent such conciliatory action from all sides, months ~ possibly years
— more war is likely, leading to more economic deterioration amid
worsening and widening insecurity. For now, Addis Ababa and its allies
will press their counteroffensives, but total defeat of two armed
movements that enjoy considerable support among their constituencies
is unlikely. Instead, if they can, Tigray and Oromo forces will likely
renew their efforts to overthrow the federal government. Prospects for
that happening now appear slim, but were those efforts to sueceed, the
breakdown of government authority and possibly even state collapse
would be on the cards. For one thing, much of Amhara region would
likely go into open revolt. A number of other regional governments
might refuse to cooperate with a transitional government comprised
heavily of TPLF figures, especially if allied forces seize power by
unseating a constitutionally elected administration.
Even if they can agree on a truce and get to talks, Ethiopia’s duelling
lites would still face formidable challenges in achieving sustainable
peace. Addressing Amhara opposition to removing the terrorist,
designations would be an initial one. Getting to a lasting ceasefire that
involves Tigray’s forces’ withdrawal to their region and agreeing upon
the future of those forces would be particularly thorny. So, too, would
the western Tigray dispute: Mekelle considers its return to Tigray to be
non-negotiable, but Amhara is dead set against it. As Crisis Group has
argued, preventing open-ended instability in the area requires both
sides to make concessions that so far they have been unwilling to
entertain. The potential for growing Tigrayan secessionism, given their
suffering at the hands of allied forces, could overshadow any national
dialogue. An independence bid - which would be constitutional if,
federal authorities classed Tigray’s government as lawful - would
supercharge the western Tigray dispute and could bring Tigray into
another confrontation with its arch-enemy, Eritrean President Isaias
Afwerki’s military.
Still, forbidding long-term challenges notwithstanding, the critical task
now is to ameliorate grave immediate risks by making incremental
trust-building concessions. Battlefield dynamics now indicate a drawn-
out war. Ethiopia's leaders need to act in a magnanimous, conciliatory
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and far-sighted fashion to address all parties’ concerns and so improve
the country’s prospects. In time, that means an inclusive national
dialogue to address the deep fault lines. Ethiopians have paid a colossal
price for this war in human and economic terms. More conflict will only
increase the devastation and prolong the pain. Stopping the fighting
now might give the Horn of Africa’s pivotal state a chance to start
stitching itself back together.
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