Probability: Probability can be defined as a chance that an uncertain event will

occur. It is the numerical measure of the likelihood that an event will occur. The
value of probability always remains between 0 and 1 that represent ideal
uncertainties.

Full Joint Probability:

The full joint probability distribution specifies the probability of each complete
assignment of values to random variables. It is usually too large to create or use in
its explicit form, but when it is available it can be used to answer queries simply
by adding up entries for the possible worlds corresponding to the query
propositions. Full joint probability distribution can answer any question about
the domain, but can become intractably large as the number of variables grows.
Furthermore, specifying probabilities for possible worlds one by one is unnatural
and tedious.
Bayes’ theorem
Bayes’ rule allows unknown probabilities to be computed from known conditional
probabilities, usually in the causal direction. Applying Bayes’ rule with many
pieces of evidence runs into the same scaling problems as does the full joint
distribution.
Utility Function:
In AI, a utility function assigns values to certain actions that the AI system can
take. An AI agent's preferences over possible outcomes can be captured by a
function that maps these outcomes to a utility value; the higher the number the
more that agent likes that outcome.

Uncertainty management:
Probabilistic reasoning in Artificial intelligence
Uncertainty:
Causes of uncertainty:
Following are some leading causes of uncertainty to occur in the real world.
1. Information occurred from unreliable sources.
2. Experimental Errors
3. Equipment fault
4. Temperature variation
5. Climate change.
Probabilistic reasoning:
Probabilistic reasoning is a way of knowledge representation where we apply the
concept of probability to indicate the uncertainty in knowledge. In probabilistic
reasoning, we combine probability theory with logic to handle the uncertainty.
We use probability in probabilistic reasoning because it provides a way to handle
the uncertainty that is the result of someone's laziness and ignorance.
Need of probabilistic reasoning in AI:
o When there are unpredictable outcomes.
o When specifications or possibilities of predicates becomes too large to
handle.
o When an unknown error occurs during an experiment.
In probabilistic reasoning, there are two ways to solve problems with uncertain
knowledge:
o Bayes' rule
o Bayesian Statistics
Bayesian Belief Network in artificial intelligence
A Bayesian network is a probabilistic graphical model which represents a set of
variables and their conditional dependencies using a directed acyclic graph.
Bayesian networks are probabilistic, because these networks are built from
a probability distribution, and also use probability theory for prediction and
anomaly detection. Bayesian Network can be used for building models from data
and experts opinions, and it consists of two parts:
o Directed Acyclic Graph
o Table of conditional probabilities.
Decision Theory:
Decision theory is a logical study of how decisions are made in a structure or
system where the decision environment is uncertain and the decision variables
unknown.

Decision Network:
Decision networks combine Bayesian networks with additional node types for
actions and utilities. The algorithm for evaluating decision networks is the
following:
1. Set the evidence variables for the current state.
2. For each possible value of the decision node:
(a) Set the decision node to that value.
(b) Calculate the posterior probabilities for the parent nodes of the utility
node, using a standard probabilistic inference algorithm.
(c) Calculate the resulting utility for the action.
3. Return the action with the highest utility.