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ANNUAL
REVIEWS Further The Political Science
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• Top cited articles Jenna Bednar
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Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

• Our comprehensive search Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109;
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External Faculty, Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, New Mexico 87501;


email: jbednar@umich.edu

Annu. Rev. Law Soc. Sci. 2011. 7:269–88 Keywords


First published online as a Review in Advance on distribution of authority, safeguards, positive political theory, complex
August 23, 2011
adaptive systems
The Annual Review of Law and Social Science is
online at lawsocsci.annualreviews.org Abstract
This article’s doi: This article highlights political science’s interest in the distribution of
10.1146/annurev-lawsocsci-102510-105522
authority between federal and state governments. The authority bound-
Copyright  c 2011 by Annual Reviews. aries are studied (a) as mechanism design problems, where authority is
All rights reserved
allocated optimally to achieve social goals; (b) as problems in positive
1550-3585/11/1201-0269$20.00 political theory, because the authority distribution creates competitive
interests; (c) as an institutional design problem, where the boundaries
are maintained by safeguards; and (d ) as a complex adaptive system,
where the boundaries evolve in response to the interaction of diverse
agents. The article concludes with a suggestion that as dynamic mod-
els of constitutional evolution develop, reflecting the bottom-up process
and the responsiveness to the cultural community, federal constitutional
design may transform from optimality studies to feasibility studies.

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LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

INTRODUCTION affect how well a federal union achieves broad


social goals such as economic growth or the pro-
Federalism is a system of government charac-
tection of rights. It is a literature that considers
terized by semiautonomous states in a regime
what federalism can do, ideally, when author-
with a common central government; govern-
ity is optimally allocated between federal and
mental authority is allocated between levels of
state governments. The optimal design litera-
government (Wheare 1946, Riker 1964, Elazar
ture (Section 2) tends to treat federalism as the
1987, Watts 1999a). As a system, it is complex; it
independent variable—as a means to an end—
is composed of multiple interacting governing
asking how the implementation of federalism
units, each with its own preferences and deci-
might improve social or economic outcomes in
sions to make (Ostrom 2008 [1971], 1991). The
a polity. PPT and new institutional economics
interaction between these governments pro-
both continue this examination but also recast
duces system-level properties that are not prop-
the focus to consider federalism as the depen-
erties of any individual unit on its own (Bednar
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

dent variable, asking first, if federalism is useful,


2009). Federalism’s complexity is believed to
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why does it fail, and second, how is it sustained?


help societies reach particular goals, such as im-
The boundary is subject to political manipula-
proved defense or a stronger economy, better
tion and competition, creating suboptimal out-
than the alternatives of unitary governance or
comes; and Section 3 reviews PPT’s treatment
an alliance.
of this problem. Given the lessons of Section 3,
Many political scientists who study feder-
the boundary must be safeguarded. Section 4
alism focus on the boundary problem. Fed-
describes the political science of constitutional
eralism’s boundaries are not the geographical
design of federations, which draws from the
boundaries drawn between the states. Although
new institutional economics literature. Finally,
plotting borderlines is an important problem,
Section 5 describes the emerging studies of fed-
another boundary is prior: the authority
eralism’s dynamics. The complex systems liter-
boundaries defining governmental powers and
ature treats federalism as perennially evolving
obligations, drawn between the states and the
and focuses on the forces that cause the nature
national government. Research on the bound-
of the federal union to change. These four ap-
aries takes four forms: optimal design, or the
proaches have developed roughly sequentially.
study of federalism’s potential; positive political
The methodology employed within political
theory (PPT), or the study of what federalism
science varies widely, and publications appear
can feasibly do, taking into consideration the
in outlets crossing disciplines, from public eco-
private motivations of politicians; new insti-
nomics to political theory to constitutional law.
tutional economics, an extension of the PPT
literature that focuses on institutional safe-
guards, endogenous to the system, that resolve 1. DEFINING FEDERALISM
the collective action problems inherent to fed- Federalism is a system of government in which
eralism; and complex adaptive systems, or the the political territory is divided into units
study of the dynamics of federalism’s bound- endowed with their own governments, and
aries as the federal union adapts and evolves. these territories, or states, are unified under a
This article is organized around these four common government. Political scientists more
research thrusts and describes synergies be- formally define the complex intergovernmental
tween them. It begins with a formal definition relationship of federalism in one of two ways.
of federalism—actually, two, but both stress the One emphasizes the distribution of authority
division between federal and state governments. between two levels of government, and the
From there, each section is dedicated to review- other emphasizes the relationship between the
ing an aspect of the study of federalism’s bound- governments and the public. In the former
aries. The distribution of authority is posited to category, Riker’s (1975, p. 101) definition

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is commonly employed: “Federalism is a have the capacity to make laws with direct effect
political organization in which the activities on the citizens within their territorial purview
of government are divided between regional (Federalist 15, 39; Watts 1999a, p. 121). Gov-
governments and a central government in such ernmental authorities are distributed between
a way that each kind of government has some the governments and are often shared. In short,
activities on which it makes final decisions.” federations are characterized by (a) geopolitical
Relying on this definition, scholars write of division, (b) independence, and (c) direct effect
more centralized or peripheralized federations, (Bednar 2009, pp. 18–19). In being explicit
putting federations in a continuum of systems about the relationship between the people and
that embraces trade and defense alliances on the their government, the definition distinguishes a
one end and, on the other, in a practical sense, federation not only from a confederacy, but also
administrative decentralization, where lower from trade associations and military alliances.
levels make decisions about the implementation Under either definition of federalism, the
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

of national policy (Elazar 1994, Watts 1999a). line drawn between the national government
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Under this definition, federations may be and the subnational governments is critical for
legally symmetric or asymmetric (Elazar 1987; generating the claimed benefits of federalism.
Watts 1999a,b; Agranoff 1999). In the sym- This boundary of federalism delineates the au-
metric federation, each substate has the same thorities assigned to the national government
relationship with the federal government and is and those held by the subnational governments.
endowed with the same authorities. The United The boundary can be thick, and most often is;
States is a canonical example of a symmetric federal and state governments legally and con-
federation. In an asymmetric federation, some ventionally share responsibilities. The shared
substates, but not all, enjoy enhanced self-rule authorities do not imply that authority assign-
(Zuber 2011). Examples include Belgium ment is insignificant. To the contrary, the ca-
(Swenden 2002), Canada (Watts 1999b), the pacity and effectiveness of the federal union de-
European Union (Swenden 2004), Russia pend on the assignment of these authorities as
(Zuber 2011), and Spain (Agranoff 1999). well as on the ability and willingness of each
Normatively, one justifies asymmetrical fed- level of government to respect its assignment.
eralism to recognize the distinct preferences In this review, I consider how the assign-
of clustered subpopulations, such as ethnically ment of authority is related to the posited
identified states, who negotiate (formally or effect of federalism and then consider how
informally) increased authority over domains that assignment is maintained. Lastly, I ac-
important to their identity, such as education knowledge the necessity and reality of evolving
or language (Kymlicka 1998, 2001). It is federal boundaries—that the assignment must
possible that these accommodations defuse adapt to changing demands without being
tensions and boost the stability of a federation subject to opportunistic manipulation. For
(Horowitz 2006), although historical and this regulation, we consider how institutional
ideological factors may confound federalism’s safeguards operating in tandem and in concert
effectiveness (Bunce 2004). with the decentralized political process might
A second definition adds another dimen- build a strong but flexible federation.
sion: the relationship between the governments
and the public. The governments at each level,
national and state, have independent bases 2. CLAIMS OF FEDERALISM’S
of authority; one is not composed entirely of POTENTIAL
delegates from the other, nor can one level of The literature reviewed in this section treats
government revoke the authorities of another, the purposeful adoption of federalism as a
as is the case with administrative delegation. means to achieve a socially desirable end.
Within a federation, governments at each level Attempts to develop a general theory of

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federalism and its potential flourished in the Oates’s Decentralization Theorem: In the ab-
mid-twentieth century (e.g., Wheare 1946, sence of cost savings from centralization, or in-
MacMahon 1962, McWhinney 1964, Franck terjurisdictional externalities, policy should be
1968, Friedrich 1968). Global trends, includ- decentralized (Oates 1972, p. 54). Subsidiarity
ing decolonization in Africa and the grow- is politically popular in Europe and elsewhere
ing strength of smaller nations in the United because a principled preference for decentral-
Nations, turned political science’s attention ization promotes local (subnational) authority.
to regime construction. The decision to fed- Although most justifications for subsidiarity
erate is inherently risky. Whether federation are normative (Cass 1992, Bermann 1994, van
means greater decentralization, in transforma- Kersbergen & Verbeek 2004), for the Tiebout
tions from unitary states, or greater centraliza- forces to work, policy must be decentralized,
tion, when formerly independent states band factors must be mobile, and externalities must
together, federation presents risks to the status not be problematic (Begg et al. 1993).
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

quo power. Perhaps because of this risk, the- With these two principles—intergovern-
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ories of federal origins often emphasize secu- mental competition and beneficial
rity enhancement (Federalist 4, Maddox 1941, decentralization—in hand, scholars claim
Riker 1964, Rector 2009). In addition to im- that decentralized policy provision enhances
proved security, most benefits are economic or governmental honesty and efficiency and gives
political (Kincaid 1995, Ziblatt 2006, Bednar governments the chance to innovate, rather
2009). Many goals are competing, so that some- than adopt a common policy. These forces
times we need to have trade-offs; Kincaid (1995) lead directly to a belief in efficiency, policy
suggests that federalism, with the flexibility of specialization, and a reduction in corruption
power sharing, can manage these competing (Brennan & Buchanan 1980, Tanzi 1996).
priorities well. Corrupt leaders will tend to be inefficient
Many of the economic and political claims and will not survive the local competition
about federalism rely on two principles: the against their more efficient, less exploitative
Tiebout (1956) Hypothesis of citizen mobility neighbors. Decentralized states—although not
and Oates’s (1972) Decentralization Theorem, necessarily all federal—do seem to exhibit less
a prescription for subsidiarity that follows from corruption (Fisman & Gatti 2002, Bohara et al.
Tiebout. Tiebout applies the theory of firm 2004), but other evidence contradicts this claim
competition to government. Just as firm com- (Treisman 2000, Gerring & Thacker 2005).
petition drives prices down, governments will Cai & Treisman (2004) theorize that feder-
be more efficient—deliver better services for alism might boost corruption if subnational
lower taxes—when they are put in competition governments are able to shield local firms
with one another. Voting artificially constrains from central taxation or regulation; in these
citizens to a single district; entrenchment of cases, internal competition corrodes the state,
party politics may trap the citizen in a set of rather than having the beneficial effects posited
unsatisfactory policies. The mobile citizen by Tiebout. Cai & Treisman illustrate their
votes with her feet, locating in a community claims with examples from Russia, China, and
that offers a combination of services and taxes the United States. Bohara et al. (2004) suggests
that better suits her preferences. Competition that the electoral mechanism is an important
for mobile citizens encourages governments to interacting variable: When the public is more
operate more efficiently as well as to specialize. involved in elections, the relationship between
The Tiebout Hypothesis of beneficial inter- federalism and corruption becomes insignifi-
governmental competition leads to a principle cant. Myerson (2006) offers a twist, recalling
for assignment of authority between national arguments made by Madison in Federalist 10:
and subnational governments: subsidiarity. It As politicians seek higher office, they will be
is captured in the fiscal federalism literature as put in competition with one another and seek

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to build a reputation for honesty. Unitary example, Kollman (2003) argues that the rotat-
governments lack this advantage, as any leader ing presidency of the European Union intro-
elected to succeed a corrupt leader has every duces a fresh policy agenda every six months, so
incentive also to be corrupt. that the union explores new mixtures of policies.
As citizens settle into communities that Local governments also may not be more
match their own preferences, at the local level efficient; the infamous flypaper effect is a strong
the sorting produces homogeneity, while at the caveat against universal preference for transfer-
regional level, communities will be heteroge- ring federal funds to local governments. When
neous. Subnational governments can specialize, a government receives an unconditional grant,
tailoring public policy to meet local demands. it can choose to keep spending at the same level
When governments develop unique policies, and reduce taxes (that is, transfer the money
they become laboratories of democracy, as Jus- to the citizens), or it can increase its spending,
tice Brandeis (1932) described the public policy holding taxes at the same level. At levels much
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

experimentation that decentralization makes higher than predicted, the government chooses
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possible (Hayek 1945, Tanzi 1996, Oates 1999). to spend the money rather than transfer it to
When subnational governments innovate, suc- the citizens. This phenomenon is dubbed the
cessful solutions can diffuse to other subna- flypaper effect: Money “sticks where it hits”
tional states with similar preferences and prob- (Henderson 1968, Gramlich 1969, Courant
lems (Walker 1969, Gray 1973, Case et al. 1993, et al. 1979, Inman 1979). One explanation is the
Shipan & Volden 2006, Volden 2006), although voter ignorance hypothesis: Either the voter
the evidence may be misleading (Volden et al. does not know how much the government
2008). With sufficient learning, aggregate na- received in transfer (Filimon et al. 1982), or the
tional welfare is improved when compared with voter keeps different mental accounts of her
a centralized solution (Kollman et al. 2000). own privately held money and public money
Subnational involvement in national policy- (Hines & Thaler 1995). The voter ignorance
making may also help to overcome bureaucratic hypothesis lacks empirical support, and Knight
inertia (Halberstam 2001). (2002, 2004) and Inman (2008) suggest that the
However, beneficial, meaningful state ex- problem is simply politics: Elected politicians
perimentation may not be common. In a are eager to please their constituents by
cross-national study of the development of so- providing services and will spend the money to
cial welfare systems, Pierson 1995 finds that boost their electoral success.
the effect of federalism interacts with other Paying close attention to the assignment of
variables such as the nature of the party sys- authorities, some scholars suggest that feder-
tem, reminding us that experimentation de- alism promotes economic growth, a potential
pends heavily on the capacity and compe- that Weingast identifies as market-preserving
tence of subnational leaders. Policy innova- federalism (Weingast 1995, Montinola et al.
tion implies risk, an assumption that Crémer & 1995, Qian & Weingast 1997). Centralized
Palfrey (1999, 2002) rely on to show that mod- governments face a commitment problem:
erates prefer centralization because central- When governments are strong enough to be
ization reduces risk. In a nuanced model as- able to enforce contacts, they are strong enough
sessing the likelihood that politicians assume to exploit their position of power and can expro-
the risk associated with innovative politics, priate rents from society. Federalism is a com-
Rose-Ackerman (1980) casts doubt on the claim mitment mechanism: The central government
that federalism would generate a useful innova- maintains authority over monetary policy and
tive project, given the risk associated with true contract enforcement, but fiscal policy is de-
innovation. However, politicians may engage in centralized to the states. One potential problem
low-risk demonstration projects. Institutional with decentralization is that the states might
design might encourage experimentation: For run up budget deficits in hopes that the federal

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LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

government will bail them out. When interstate whether legally or informally—through prefer-
competition is potent, with high factor mobility ences (ethnic clustering or strong community
coupled with centralized control over mone- bonds), for example—the competitive forces
tary policy, the incentives to bail out individual that drive some of federalism’s benefits will not
states are lowered, creating a hard budget con- develop. If only a categorical portion of the
straint and encouraging the states to practice population is immobile—the poor or ethnic
prudent fiscal policy (Qian & Roland 1998, minorities—then outcomes are even worse;
Wildasin 1998). The lack of corruption and governments compete for the wealthiest and are
progrowth institutions encourage foreign di- free to ignore these minority categories. Gib-
rect investment ( Jensen & McGillivray 2005). son (2005) and Mickey (2011) describe rights-
The theory has been fruitfully applied to China violating states as “subnational autocracies”—
(Montinola et al. 1995, Qian & Weingast places, such as the U.S. southern states during
1996, Qian & Roland 1998, Jin et al. 2005), the racially charged era of the 1950s and 1960s,
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

India (Parikh & Weingast 1997), Russia where disrespect for civil rights is so significant
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(Zhuravskaya 2000), the European Union that one cannot consider the state to be a true
(McKinnon 1995), and the United States democracy. Riker (1964, pp. 139–45) famously
(McKinnon 1997), but other research bears derided federalism as great if you are a racist.
more disappointing results (Treisman 2007). The potential for states to discriminate
Rodden 2004 warns of the complexity of against some citizens prompts some to suggest
decentralized government and the resulting that rights should be provided at the national
difficulty in inferring fiscal responsibility from level where they might be protected by fed-
government finance data, and Wibbels (2000) eral courts (Riker 1964, Choper 1977). Shapiro
warns that states ought not be included in (2009) offers a challenging counterthesis: Full
federal-level monetary policymaking: With and unique provision of rights by the central
their divergent interests, states make structural government is an overreaction. Instead, the
adjustments more difficult because they block protection and extension of rights can benefit
the adoption of effective policies. from the multiplicity of views expressed at state
Using the same principles of beneficial in- and federal levels—where rights-providing au-
tergovernmental competition and decentraliza- thority is shared—thus harnessing federalism’s
tion, scholars often claim that federalism im- diversity in the rights arguments. It may be the
proves political outcomes, such as respect for best hope for the creation of new rights, such
individual rights, group autonomy and preser- as recognition of same-sex marriages, where
vation, and improved representation. The hy- a skeptical national majority could learn from
potheses themselves are structured essentially state experimentation.
identically to the economic models. For exam- Madison believed that federalism might
ple, rights-preserving federalism, claiming that rescue democracy; poor legislative represen-
individual rights, from civil to property, are tation could be improved with a hierarchy of
better protected in a federal system than in a elections as citizens gained experience with
unitary system, relies on Tiebout forces. The their representatives (Federalist 10). Ineptitude
ability of citizens or capital to exit the system would be recognized and voted out of office in
reduces a sovereign’s capacity to exploit them local elections, failing to advance up the polit-
(Buchanan 1995, Inman & Rubinfeld 1997, ical hierarchy. Experience with elections alone
Inman 2007). States will not violate individual may be sufficient to develop democratic skills,
rights because citizens can simply move. and one advantage of federalism is that the
Just as with economic claims based on public has more political offices to fill, and so
Tiebout forces, the theory of rights-preserving more elections (Ordeshook & Shvetsova 1995).
federalism is limited by the extent to which vot- Democratic outcomes improve with higher
ers are mobile. When mobility is obstructed, participation, and participation is boosted

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when one’s vote is likely to be pivotal, which is 3. COMPETITION OVER THE


more likely in smaller-scale elections (Inman & BOUNDARIES OF AUTHORITY
Rubinfeld 1997, 2000). The more authority
As the optimal design literature suggests,
held by the local government, the more voters
federalism’s benefits depend on the distribu-
will sense that it is important enough to
tion of authority between federal and state
participate.
governments. For security, coordination of
Federalism may improve electoral account-
defense and foreign policy must be centralized;
ability if voters are more likely to get accurate
if states challenge that authority, for example
information about their local politicians (Aidt
by conducting their own treaties with for-
& Dutta 2010), but other institutional factors
eign sovereigns, the union is not as secure.
such as electoral rules muddle the improvement
Peace-preserving federalism recommends
(Downs 1999). Inman & Rubinfeld (2009) re-
decentralization of language rights. Market-
port initial empirical analysis of 73 matched
preserving federalism says economic growth
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

cases (federal/unitary), suggesting that feder-


depends on the centralization of contract
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alism, when paired with effective democracy,


enforcement but the decentralization of other
protects the property, civil, and political rights
fiscal policy and cautions against involving
of its citizens better than unitary states. Frey
the states in the setting of monetary policy.
& Stutzer (2001) find a measurable increase in
Innovation depends on decentralization of
well-being from participation in direct democ-
policy authorship. And so on.
racy and local electoral participation.
For the most part, the literature in
The principles of Tiebout sorting and sub-
Section 2 ignores the possibility that the as-
sidiarity from Oates suggest that federalism
signment of authority might be disregarded by
would be a fine resolution to ethnic tension, and
the federal or state governments, that a mem-
many scholars do argue for “peace-preserving
ber government might press against or even
federalism” (Lijphart 1977, Elazar 1987, Stepan
cross the authority boundary to assume author-
1999, Lustick et al. 2004). At the same time,
ity that serves its own self-interest but contra-
by organizing political boundaries around eth-
dicts the principles of the union. Such manip-
nic groups, tensions are made more salient and
ulation should not be surprising. As Parikh &
differences are equipped with the institutional
Weingast (1997) point out, the distribution of
capacities to make demands that the rest of the
authority is not a sterile line but instead rep-
union cannot tolerate, leading to conflict or se-
resents the distribution of power, and power is
cession (Brancati 2006, Bunce 2004, Christin &
the stuff of politics. Federalism becomes the de-
Hug 2011). Hale (2004) suggests that the prob-
pendent variable, and the literature uses the ap-
lems arise when one core ethnic state is domi-
proach of PPT to explain why federations vary
nant, a position that Horowitz (1985) obliquely
in their effectiveness (see Weingast 2009 for a
confirms with his emphasis on drawing federal
review of PPT applied to fiscal federalism).
boundaries to encourage cross-cutting cleav-
Like the optimal design literature, PPT
ages. The debate is far from settled and will
draws on a few key principles. It abstracts the
likely need to wait until the technologies of
goals described in Section 2 to social goods re-
data collection and analysis have advanced. En-
quiring the coordinated effort of self-interested
listing spatial data is critical. One promising
agents—the federal and state governments
project maps ethnic groups (Wucherpfennig
(some analyses further break apart the gov-
et al. 2011); the data have been employed to
ernments into components)—and hence
examine the coincidence of political and eth-
leans heavily on theories of collective action
nic boundaries (Deiwiks 2010), the correlation
problems and noncooperative game theory
between wealth inequality and ethnic conflict
(Ostrom 1990). Coordination—generally,
(Cederman et al. 2010), and the likelihood of
heeding the boundaries of authority—requires
federal adoption (Christin & Hug 2011).

www.annualreviews.org • The Political Science of Federalism 275


LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

effort or sacrifice. In circumstances of imperfect the states, and second, preventing the federal
information, where each agent’s action cannot government from becoming a Leviathan. Bed-
be perfectly observed prior to committing nar (2009) further distinguishes opportunism
to one’s own action, there is a chance that by both the responsible party and the target,
others may not put in sufficient effort. In depicting the federal problem as a triangular
this case, not only will joint effort fall short relationship, with federal encroachment, state
of the common goal, but the government is burden shifting (creation of negative spillovers),
worse off because it has put in the effort. This and state shirking (overreach or failure to meet
n-person prisoner’s dilemma conception of the its obligations to the union). Analyzing data of
federal problem is common; James Madison state compacts, Woods & Bowman (2011) find
first identified it in his diagnosis of the flaws that the types of opportunism are related: Even
of the Articles of Confederation, “Vices of as federal encroachment and commandeering
the United States” (Madison 1999); individual grow (Kincaid 1990), they spur state compact
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

states, suspicious of the good intentions of creation, blurring federalism’s boundaries.


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others, will be tempted toward noncompliance Intentional noncompliance is not the only
with the federal rules distributing author- way that misaligned incentives upset federal-
ity. This principle has been used to model ism’s capacity. The federation is complex, and
formally the incentive to break the rules of the assignment of authority may be respected
federalism ( Jones et al. 2000, de Figueiredo & but create unanticipated incentives that distort
Weingast 2005). Under realistic assumptions, the intended effect. For example, with policy
full compliance with the rules distributing decentralization comes the potential for a race
authority cannot be obtained; opportunism is to the bottom. When states are put in compe-
inevitable in federations (Bednar 2006, 2009). tition with one another—for firms, say—they
The implication of these theoretical results is undercut one another’s regulatory policies in
potentially devastating for federalism: If states an attempt to make their state a more attrac-
cannot trust one another, federalism might tive location for business, and evidence suggests
not be attempted, even when all might benefit that states do act strategically, taking neigh-
from it. Or states might federate but withhold boring policies into account (Brueckner 2000,
their compliance defensively, greatly reducing Fredricksson & Millimet 2002).
the productivity, in social terms, of the union. Interstate competitiveness has the potential
It is helpful to further define opportunism to motivate inefficient redistributive policies.
by the responsible government. In American When U.S. welfare provision was partially
political thought, it is intuitive to think of decentralized in 1995, many feared that states
federal government overreach; it was the over- would set their cash assistance programs at
whelming concern of the anti-Federalists, and lower and lower levels to avoid being “welfare
so the Federalist Papers are dedicated to assur- magnets” (Peterson 1995, Rom et al. 1998). But
ing the public that the institutional safeguards the race to the bottom has not been found in
of federalism (described at length below) are all cases where it was anticipated, and in some
sufficient to prevent federal encroachment and cases, states seem to be able to innovate despite
commandeering (Bednar & Eskridge 1995). keeping a close eye on their neighbor—or
But we must not let the founding myth and the perhaps because they are watching their neigh-
American experience cause us to neglect the full bor. Volden (2002) suggests, however, that
scope of the problem. States are quite capable evidence of state undercutting may be artifacts
of destructive overreach, as Madison lamented of inflation; with an adjusted model, he finds
in “Vices” (Madison 1999). De Figueiredo little evidence of undercutting, although states
& Weingast (2005) describe federalism’s do hesitate to raise rates above their neighbors.
two “fundamental dilemmas”: first, resolving Berry & Baybeck (2005) find that states adopt
federalism’s collective action dilemma between lotteries because of competitive pressures with

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their neighbors, but they find little evidence to conceivably could result in superior public
support the notion that competitive pressures policies than in a unitary state—this is the
drive states’ welfare policies. principle relied upon in Shapiro’s (2009)
Some researches find evidence that in- theory of polyphonic federalism. But more
tergovernmental competition might boost often, policymaking in a federation is not
regulatory and redistributive policies. Potoski oriented toward problem solving but instead
(2001) reports that U.S. states regularly exceed is adversarial (Scharpf 1988). With evidence
federal environmental standards, and although from grant programs, Nicholson-Crotty (2004)
this is not evidence that the states would pro- finds that the greater the congruence between
vide adequate environmental protection in the federal and state goals, the more effective the
absence of a federal baseline, it is interesting program. However, absent this congruence,
that states have challenged the EPA for the shared decision making and the norm of
right to exceed EPA regulations. Lowry (1992) agreement by both state and federal levels lead
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

suggests that beneficial state innovation is to stagnation and inefficiency, a “joint-decision


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constrained by federalism’s dimensions of in- trap” (Scharpf 1988) of a second-best outcome,


terstate competition and federal involvement, where the existing powers are unable to agree
whereas Lester et al. (1983) find that states with on greater centralization or disintegration,
opposing partisan dominance that anticipate even if that would improve net utility. It is
federal intervention prefer to develop their the regret over the second-best outcome that
own policies. Rabe (2004, 2006) identifies causes Feeley & Rubin (2008) to characterize
important areas, such as greenhouse gas reg- federalism as a “tragic” compromise.
ulation and renewable energy requirements, The boundaries of federalism are inherently
where the states have been leaders in devel- ambiguous (Bednar 2009, Ryan 2011), and that
oping standards, with the federal government ambiguity invites opportunistic interpretation;
learning from their experimentation. shared jurisdictions make opportunism even
Increasingly, public policy is a prod- easier. Blurred jurisdictions invite competition
uct of joint action between federal and state between federal and state politicians to involve
governments (Kincaid 1990), although the phe- themselves in policies inefficiently (Volden
nomenon is hardly new (Elazar 1962, Grodzins 2005) or to engage in credit-claiming battles
1966, Derthick 1997). As the theory of federal- that distort electoral accountability (Pettys
ism develops, it must take into account the joint 2003, Bednar 2007a). Recalling the second
action between federal and state governments. definition of federalism in Section 1, incor-
For example, Rodden & Rose-Ackerman porating the relationship between the people
(1997) criticize the original market-preserving and the government, Stepan (1999) questions
model for assuming a dualist model of feder- the democratic fairness of federalism. By
alism; in the modern age of shared authorities, prioritizing the states, federalism distorts the
the model’s insistence on separate spheres, par- democratic principle of equal power per vote. In
ticularly where the subnational government as- asymmetric federal systems—and here Stepan
sumes primary responsibility over its economy, would include the United States because small
is hard to imagine. Intergovernmental coopera- states are disproportionately represented in the
tion, between states as well as between the state Senate, despite their legal equity—some states
and national governments, is a regular feature are in the position to manipulate outcomes
of federalism but is banned by the model. to their own advantage. Similarly, Brancati
Problem solving by heterogeneous teams (2006) points out that the state governments
leads to better outcomes than when the team give legitimacy and organizational power to
is composed of similar members (Page 2007). minority interests, which may try to manipulate
With its multiple layers and distinct subunits, their position to extract gains for themselves at
the sharing of policy generation in a federation the expense of the rest of the union. Federalism

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LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

research might add important dimensionality 1969, Bednar & Eskridge 1995, Vaubel 1996). If
to our understanding of pork barrel politics. in its review it finds that the government’s pol-
In sum, the backbone of all claims regard- icy violates constitutional standards, the policy
ing federalism’s potential is the distribution of is struck and occasionally a fine is also levied.
authority between the federal and state govern- The Court may inhibit both federal- and state-
ments. If the distribution of authority matters, level opportunism, although as a trigger mech-
then violations to it alter federalism’s perfor- anism, its punishment capacity is mild. On its
mance. The hazards of misaligned incentives own it is unlikely to prevent significant oppor-
that the PPT literature describes about feder- tunism. Although some suspect that the Court
alism do not doom the prospects of federalism, is less effective at umpiring federal action (e.g.,
but they do mean that scholars and constitu- Riker 1964), the Court’s legitimacy may grow
tional designers need to pay attention to the as it reviews state action, and the public’s accep-
safeguards that regulate the incentives. We turn tance and expectation that it will also monitor
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

to that literature next. the federal government will emerge (Friedman


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& Delaney 2011).


The federal system need not rely on the ju-
4. SAFEGUARDING FEDERALISM dicial safeguards. Most federal constitutions in-
To regulate respect for the boundaries of clude structural safeguards: fragmentation of
federalism, constitutions establish (directly or federal-level decision making and a formal
indirectly) safeguards that monitor governmen- voice for the states in federal policy delibera-
tal activity and respond to perceived transgres- tions. When the federal government’s legisla-
sions. Like the optimal design literature and the tive power is separated by bicameralism and
PPT literature, the theory of federalism’s safe- checked with an executive veto, policy approval
guards is built upon principles, in this case the must meet multiple majorities. When states ap-
model of a trigger mechanism developed in new point delegates to the federal legislature, federal
institutional economics. A trigger mechanism is encroachment is further inhibited. The struc-
an institution that compares an observed behav- tural safeguards encourage the federal govern-
ior against an ideal or threshold; the compari- ment to adhere to the boundaries of its author-
son causes the safeguard to trigger a response. ity (Federalist 51; Madison 1999, pp. 40, 41,
In most cases, the safeguard is modeled as a 110; Wechsler 1954; Riker 1955; Vile 1961;
stick; its response is negative, punishing behav- Lusztig 1995; Ordeshook & Shvetsova 1997;
ior that falls short of expectations. However, Weingast 1998; Stepan 2001; Rossum 2001; de
it is possible to model a safeguard as a carrot, Figueiredo & Weingast 2005; de Figueiredo
nudging or incentivizing productive behavior, et al. 2007). Where the judicial safeguards op-
such as costly experimentation (Bednar 2011). erate ex post, rendering a judgment on action
To model a safeguard properly (whether for- already taken, the structural safeguards are acti-
mally or informally), one must evaluate the safe- vated at the point of policy deliberation, before
guard’s information stream (how it gathers its any harm is felt. Structural safeguards can only
observation), what kinds of governmental ac- constrain the federal government; they cannot
tions it pays attention to, how it sets its thresh- constrain the state governments, so they would
old, and of course, the strength of its response. need a complementary safeguard at the state
An effective trigger mechanism alters the pay- level.
off to transgressing federalism’s boundary, mo- Safeguards are not always specified by the
tivating compliance. constitution; they need not even be formal.
The most intuitive safeguard is a constitu- The party system, defining the network that
tional court that judges the acceptability of gov- connects the political organizations backing
ernmental action against its interpretation of candidates, can be an important safeguard of
the federal constitution (Federalist 78, Johnston the authority boundary. Political parties tie

278 Bednar
LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

politicians together. When the party fields can- the national parties to boost their chances of
didates at both federal and state levels of gov- success.
ernment, there is a potential for the party or- The popular safeguards of federalism are
ganizations at each level to coordinate their elusive. Although many theorists have pointed
efforts. When the party system is centralized, to the importance of public perception in
most media attention focuses on the candidates guiding and maintaining federalism, especially
for federal office, and the candidates at the state as a common culture develops (Federalist 46,
level ride on the coattails of the federal politi- Riker 1964, Ostrom 2008 [1971], Elazar 1987,
cians. Although numerous scholars have de- Weingast 1995, Levy 2007, Bednar 2009), there
scribed the connection between the party sys- exist few attempts to measure them (but see
tem and federalism (e.g., Riker 1964, Kramer Kam & Mikos 2007 and Kincaid & Cole 2011).
2000), Filippov et al. (2004) specify the polit- Erk (2008) argues that the contours of federal-
ical safeguards of federalism best. In a decen- ism evolve to fit the underlying social structure.
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

tralized party system, the local and state par- In addition to the judicial, structural, po-
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ties operate independently from one another. litical, and popular safeguards, federalism’s
In an integrated party system, the party organi- boundaries can be protected through push-
zations at the two levels are codependent. By back by the governments—often the states—
tying the welfare of politicians to the party, themselves. In federalism, most policy is co-
the politician is released from complete de- generated, giving each level of government
pendence on her constituents. In creating an an opportunity to monitor one another’s ac-
imperfect agent, federalism is protected. Politi- tions and question potential violations (Wright
cians will be less likely to seek to defy the au- 1982, Krane 2007). In years of interviews with
thority boundaries to serve localized interests state officials, Nugent (2009) describes the ways
when their campaign finance and organization that states protect their interests with the fed-
depend on the more generalized interests of eral government: They block legislation, they
the party. Analysis of Germany and Argentina shape and reshape it, they lobby for funds, and
confirms this effect ( Jones et al. 2000, Rodden they achieve flexibility in the implementation
2006), although Diaz-Cayeros (2006) confirms of federal programming. Even if on paper the
it through its absence in Mexico. The integrated U.S. federation appears to be centralizing, with
party system occurs infrequently: More often, growing federal policymaking in domains tra-
party systems are focused on national elections, ditionally left to the states, the states continue
with Canada and Brazil important exceptions to exert significant authorship of policy as im-
(Samuels 1999). plemented. Ryan’s (2011) study of environmen-
The party system is responsive to the elec- tal law supports Nugent’s (2009) findings, and
torate. For example, Chhibber & Kollman she argues that federal-state bargaining is suffi-
(2004) relate the centralization of the party ciently robust that the courts should limit their
system (and the number of effective parties) safeguarding activities to allow the process to
to the level of government with fiscal author- function. In a plea against federal preemption,
ity. They find that what matters is not actual Hills (2007) praises the blurred boundaries be-
control but rather voters’ perceptions—popular cause states press the federal government to
beliefs—about which government has control. remain honest and efficient, or they will of-
The force driving the number of parties is the fer an alternative. This mechanism depends on
distribution of fiscal authority. The public has the voters’ ability to correctly assign respon-
beliefs about federalism that affect the atten- sibility for policy, which may not always ex-
tion they pay to the state or national parties. ist, and politicians may exploit voter ignorance
When they believe that national political deci- (Bednar 2007a). Woods & Bowman (2011)
sions matter more, they focus on national par- trace the rise of interstate compacts to federal
ties, and the parties at the state level align with government encroachment: The states respond

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LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

to federal transgression with an offensive de- available in case of a more significant transgres-
fense of their own. sion. And safeguards are needed for each level of
State pushback depends on the same as- government. A system of safeguards that meets
sumption employed by the Tiebout-based these criteria will be more robust.
claims: mobility/exit. States need to have an exit Testing the efficacy of complementary sys-
option in order to motivate the federal govern- tems is more complicated than testing single-
ment to respect its authorities. There is a flip safeguard theories. Lately, a few applied the-
side to exit options: As outside options become ories and large-n analyses have made some
more attractive, they reduce the ability of the headway. Voigt & Blume (2010) argue that a
group to coerce cooperative behavior, and this dummy variable representing federalism is too
in turn reduces the productive capacity of the simplistic; it is better to reduce federalism to
union. The loss of utility to the participating component institutional parts. They show that
members means that the union may be less sta- the different components have different eco-
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

ble with moderately attractive exit options than nomic effects. In Vaubel’s (1996) analysis show-
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without (Bednar 2007b). ing that constitutional court independence is


To be complete, a safeguard must minimize correlated with prevention of fiscal centraliza-
all types of opportunism and must do so without tion, he also finds that structural safeguards
fail. No single safeguard meets this function. are correlated. It would be interesting to know
Most focus their attention on a specific level of whether the structural safeguards and judicial
government (for example, the structural safe- safeguards are complementary—specifically, if
guards only inhibit federal encroachment), and the judicial safeguards are more effective when
each is prone to failure by considering biased the structural safeguards are present, as recent
information, such as legally circumscribed ev- research implies (Friedman & Delaney 2011,
idence in the courtroom or mass perceptions Grove 2011). Investigating more complex con-
that shape the response of political or popular ceptions of federalism’s safeguards, where each
safeguards. Some are relatively weak—judicial safeguard is but an imperfect component within
safeguards, for example—whereas intergov- a system, is fruit for future research.
ernmental retaliation—the pushback from the
states—has the potential to escalate out of
control. A trigger mechanism requires proper 5. FUTURE RESEARCH:
calibration to be an efficient deterrent: The ju- THE EVOLVING BOUNDARIES
diciary may not have a sufficiently severe pun- OF FEDERALISM
ishment capacity to deter major transgressions, Current developments in the federalism lit-
and state pushback may be too difficult to con- erature follow three trends, all related to ex-
trol for everyday use. ploring the boundaries of federalism, and each
Ideally, the boundaries of federalism are reg- having the potential to lean on a developing re-
ulated by a system of complementary safeguards search thrust: complex adaptive systems. First,
such that each component compensates for the as described above, the complexities of federal-
others’ weaknesses (Bednar 2009). Federalism ism, in going from design to potential, require
gives us an opportunity to consider the ad- systems-level analysis. Optimal systems can be
vantages of diverse perspectives by improving composed of suboptimal parts (Bednar 2009,
the reliability of the safeguard’s response; safe- Vermeule 2009). This insight invokes the the-
guards that fail for different reasons—that have ory of complex systems, in which system prop-
different biases or sources of information—will erties emerge that are not predictable when the
make the system more dependable. Safeguards analysis is confined to the linear aggregation of
that have different punishment capacities can individual components. As we further develop
be paired, where the more mild one deters mi- the science of federal systems to understand
nor transgressions and the more severe one is how the design translates into performance and

280 Bednar
LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

how it fits with the political culture, we must comparing. Erk (2008) suggests that Eu-
continue to examine how multiple safeguards rope’s institutions and the distribution of
fit together. authority will increasingly reflect the distinct
Second, there is a new interest in federal- societies that they are designed to govern.
ism’s dynamics. For the most part, the studies Pierson (1996), on the other hand, offers a
described in Sections 3 and 4 are built upon historical-institutionalist account of European
equilibrium analysis. The models imply that if federalism: The institutions are designed to
federalism’s safeguards are ideally rigged, then be ever more integrative. Europe is on a
the system rests in equilibrium: Neither side, path toward centralization, and the member
federal or state government, crosses its allotted states inevitably will lose their authority. Both
boundary. In some cases, imperfect information theories suggest change in the boundaries of
or other technical deficiencies may prevent per- authority, but they point in distinct directions;
fect stasis, but the theories do not endogenize with Erk, the society shapes the institu-
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

change to the federal boundaries. tions, whereas with Pierson, the centralizing
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This modeling constraint is unfortunate be- nature of the institutions overrides social
cause the boundaries of federalism cannot be tendencies.
frozen. At best, they are a product of social The contradictory theories suggest a need
science—an imperfect practice!—but more of- for microanalysis to understand better the re-
ten, they result from political compromise. And lationship between the governed population—
circumstances change. Constitutional change individually and as collected into a federal
is necessary; for federal systems to remain culture—and the institutions of government.
relevant and effective, the authority bound- Change is made not just by the safeguards, but
aries must be adjustable. Federal constitutional also by the governments themselves. In addition
amendments, requiring a supermajority (often to a diversity of constitutional interpreters, the
sliced several ways) of organized distinct in- boundary of federalism is continually contested
terests, can be a challenging way to introduce as state and federal agents enact new legislation
meaningful change (e.g., Banting & Simeon or adjust the implementation of existing
1985). But change happens anyway, most of- statutes. Often in so doing they experiment,
ten through reinterpretation and the extension bumping up against the boundaries of their
of shared authorities (Simeon 2001). The inter- authority (Peterson 1995). At times, a safeguard
pretation of the existing distribution of author- (including another governmental agent) will in-
ity must be flexible. terpret the action to be a transgression. Oppor-
This flexible interpretation returns us, tunism is inevitable; it is a natural and unavoid-
naturally, to the system of safeguards. Differ- able part of every federal union (Bednar 2006).
ent safeguards have different interpretations The resulting disagreement can raise tensions
of where federalism’s boundaries lie. In the in the federal union. Conflict can be destructive,
debate and disagreement, a popular consensus but in pushing against and sometimes tearing
might be reached (Bednar 2009). In a sense, by down boundaries, a new federal relationship is
embracing multiple interpreters of the federal created. The creative tension can be beneficial.
boundaries, federalism is following a trend in As with the opportunism described in Section
the legal literature on constitutional interpreta- 2, it can also flatten a federation, rendering it
tion more generally, which increasingly appears a confederacy or a unitary system, eliminating
interested in extrajudicial constitutional in- the complexity that makes federalism so potent.
terpreters and, particularly, the interaction Therefore, as with the opportunism in Section
between the Court and public opinion (Kramer 2, experimentation and opportunism, even
2005, Primus 2006, Friedman 2010). when mild, need safeguarding, but if well-
Two projections of change to the bound- regulated, they could be sources of beneficial
aries of European federal authorities are worth change.

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LS07CH13-Bednar ARI 26 September 2011 8:23

Recently, political scientists have revisited is organic and bottom-up. It is sensitive to cul-
accounts of concurrent jurisdictions to derive tural context and political processes. It thinks
explanations for changing federal boundaries, about paths of development, about nudging be-
with an approach that leans much more heavily haviors, and about ways that systems of imper-
on the feasibility studies of the positive politi- fect institutions might help to guide a society
cal theorists than the normative prescriptions toward its goals.
of the earlier optimal designers. Conditional In sum, concern for the distribution of
grants, with authority-sharing, are often a way authority will remain focal to the federalism
that constitutional boundaries evolve (Elazar literature. We will continue to want to un-
1962; Grodzins 1966; Smiley 1964, 1970). derstand how best to distribute authority in
Halberstam & Hills (2001) argue that the order to achieve societal goals, but the research
flexibility of the U.S. system, with dynamic co- going forward will take into account what is
operative federalism creating vertical competi- feasible, given the inherent tendency toward
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

tion, may make U.S. policymaking more effi- opportunism. To defend the boundaries of
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cient than in Germany; Wood (1992) takes a federalism, research on safeguards will con-
systems perspective to explain the dynamics of tinue, but increasingly it will recognize a broad
clean air implementation. Canadian federalism array of safeguards and consider how those
is increasingly characterized by collaboration safeguards complement one another to defend
and provincial initiatives (Cameron & Simeon the boundaries. And finally, perhaps the most
2002). Benz’s (1999, p. 56) account of Ger- revolutionary research shift moving forward is
man federalism cites the deal-making between to develop a theory of the dynamics of federal-
Länder and federal government that leads to ism’s boundaries. Doing so means reviving the
interstate asymmetries and makes federalism a detailed understandings of intergovernmental
“dynamic system.” In Colino (2009), constitu- relations that have been diverted to public
tional change in Spanish federalism is a bottom- administration scholarship; the process of
up process. federal evolution is bottom-up, decentralized,
Finally, as federalism theory continues to many-actored, and responsive to cultural
develop, it may come back full circle to its patterns. In moving beyond equilibrium-based
original question: What is the optimal distribu- theories and adopting a model of complex
tion of authority between federal and state gov- adaptive systems, the microprocesses leading
ernments? But the approach now might draw to federal constitutional change might soon be
upon the lessons from PPT and new institu- understood. The modern science of federalism
tional analysis and the emerging application of focuses on the interaction between safeguard-
complex systems. Rather than take a prescrip- ing institutions and imperfect agents and on
tive, directed approach to mechanism design, how those interactions shape the evolution of
the generation of the boundaries of federalism federalism.

DISCLOSURE STATEMENT
The author is not aware of any affiliations, memberships, funding, or financial holdings that might
be perceived as affecting the objectivity of this review.

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The Triumph and Tragedy of Tobacco Control:
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Durkheim and Law: Divided Readings over Division of Labor
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Law and American Political Development
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U.S. War and Emergency Powers: The Virtues
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The Political Science of Federalism
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The Rights of Noncitizens in the United States


Susan Bibler Coutin p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p 289
Innovations in Policing: Meanings, Structures, and Processes
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Elaborating the Individual Difference Component
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Why Pirates Are Back
Shannon Lee Dawdy p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p p 361
The Evolving International Judiciary
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The Social Construction of Law: The European Court of Justice


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Indexes

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Wei Wang, Christian Kiewitz Donald Hale, Jr.
• Delineating and Reviewing the Role of Newcomer Capital in • The Psychology of Entrepreneurship, Michael Frese,
Organizational Socialization, Talya N. Bauer, Berrin Erdogan Michael M. Gielnik
• Emotional Intelligence in Organizations, Stéphane Côté • The Story of Why We Stay: A Review of Job Embeddedness,
• Employee Voice and Silence, Elizabeth W. Morrison Thomas William Lee, Tyler C. Burch, Terence R. Mitchell
• Intercultural Competence, Kwok Leung, Soon Ang, • What Was, What Is, and What May Be in OP/OB,
Mei Ling Tan Lyman W. Porter, Benjamin Schneider
• Learning in the Twenty-First-Century Workplace, • Where Global and Virtual Meet: The Value of Examining
Raymond A. Noe, Alena D.M. Clarke, Howard J. Klein the Intersection of These Elements in Twenty-First-Century
• Pay Dispersion, Jason D. Shaw Teams, Cristina B. Gibson, Laura Huang, Bradley L. Kirkman,
• Personality and Cognitive Ability as Predictors of Effective Debra L. Shapiro
Performance at Work, Neal Schmitt • Work–Family Boundary Dynamics, Tammy D. Allen,
Eunae Cho, Laurenz L. Meier

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Tel: 800.523.8635 (us/can) | Tel: 650.493.4400 | Fax: 650.424.0910 | Email: service@annualreviews.org
Annual Reviews
It’s about time. Your time. It’s time well spent.

New From Annual Reviews:


Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application
Volume 1 • Online January 2014 • http://statistics.annualreviews.org

Editor: Stephen E. Fienberg, Carnegie Mellon University


Associate Editors: Nancy Reid, University of Toronto
Stephen M. Stigler, University of Chicago
Annu. Rev. Law. Soc. Sci. 2011.7:269-288. Downloaded from www.annualreviews.org

The Annual Review of Statistics and Its Application aims to inform statisticians and quantitative methodologists, as
Access provided by University of Alberta on 02/11/15. For personal use only.

well as all scientists and users of statistics about major methodological advances and the computational tools that
allow for their implementation. It will include developments in the field of statistics, including theoretical statistical
underpinnings of new methodology, as well as developments in specific application domains such as biostatistics
and bioinformatics, economics, machine learning, psychology, sociology, and aspects of the physical sciences.

Complimentary online access to the first volume will be available until January 2015.
table of contents:

• What Is Statistics? Stephen E. Fienberg • High-Dimensional Statistics with a View Toward Applications
• A Systematic Statistical Approach to Evaluating Evidence in Biology, Peter Bühlmann, Markus Kalisch, Lukas Meier
from Observational Studies, David Madigan, Paul E. Stang, • Next-Generation Statistical Genetics: Modeling, Penalization,
Jesse A. Berlin, Martijn Schuemie, J. Marc Overhage, and Optimization in High-Dimensional Data, Kenneth Lange,
Marc A. Suchard, Bill Dumouchel, Abraham G. Hartzema, Jeanette C. Papp, Janet S. Sinsheimer, Eric M. Sobel
Patrick B. Ryan • Breaking Bad: Two Decades of Life-Course Data Analysis
• The Role of Statistics in the Discovery of a Higgs Boson, in Criminology, Developmental Psychology, and Beyond,
David A. van Dyk Elena A. Erosheva, Ross L. Matsueda, Donatello Telesca
• Brain Imaging Analysis, F. DuBois Bowman • Event History Analysis, Niels Keiding
• Statistics and Climate, Peter Guttorp • Statistical Evaluation of Forensic DNA Profile Evidence,
• Climate Simulators and Climate Projections, Christopher D. Steele, David J. Balding
Jonathan Rougier, Michael Goldstein • Using League Table Rankings in Public Policy Formation:
• Probabilistic Forecasting, Tilmann Gneiting, Statistical Issues, Harvey Goldstein
Matthias Katzfuss • Statistical Ecology, Ruth King
• Bayesian Computational Tools, Christian P. Robert • Estimating the Number of Species in Microbial Diversity
• Bayesian Computation Via Markov Chain Monte Carlo, Studies, John Bunge, Amy Willis, Fiona Walsh
Radu V. Craiu, Jeffrey S. Rosenthal • Dynamic Treatment Regimes, Bibhas Chakraborty,
• Build, Compute, Critique, Repeat: Data Analysis with Latent Susan A. Murphy
Variable Models, David M. Blei • Statistics and Related Topics in Single-Molecule Biophysics,
• Structured Regularizers for High-Dimensional Problems: Hong Qian, S.C. Kou
Statistical and Computational Issues, Martin J. Wainwright • Statistics and Quantitative Risk Management for Banking
and Insurance, Paul Embrechts, Marius Hofert

Access this and all other Annual Reviews journals via your institution at www.annualreviews.org.

Annual Reviews | Connect With Our Experts


Tel: 800.523.8635 (us/can) | Tel: 650.493.4400 | Fax: 650.424.0910 | Email: service@annualreviews.org

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