State budgeting impact on Greece

economic recovery
Abstract

This research paper addresses the impact of state budgeting on the economic

recovery of Greece. Following a decade of austerity measures, the macroeconomic

indices of the Greek economy along with credit ratings have started improving slowly

yet steadily. In this research, the state budgeting reliability, role and usefulness are

examined, especially under the economic crisis specifics. The Greek economy

macroeconomic indices between 2001Q1 and 2020Q4 are examined as a state

budgeting manifestation.

Keywords; State budgeting, economic recovery, Greece, macroeconomy

Table of content

ii
s

Abstract..........................................................................................................................ii

Table of contents...........................................................................................................3

List of charts...................................................................................................................5

List of tables...................................................................................................................7

List of figures................................................................................................................10

1. Introduction.........................................................................................................11

2. Literature review..................................................................................................13

2.1. Introduction...................................................................................................13

3. Data and methodology........................................................................................16

3.1. Data collection...............................................................................................16

3.2. Data analysis..................................................................................................16

4. Results and analysis.............................................................................................18

4.1. Descriptive statistics analysis and data visualizations...................................18

4.2. Hypotheses testing........................................................................................21

4.2.1. Hypothesis 1; GDP and unemployment.................................................21

4.2.2. Hypothesis 2; GDP and Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). 23

4.2.3. Hypothesis 3; Total general government revenue and unemployment25

4.2.4. Hypothesis 4; Total general government revenue and Harmonised

Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).........................................................................26

3
 4.2.5. Hypothesis 5; Total general government expenditure and

unemployment.....................................................................................................27

4.2.6. Hypothesis 6; Total general government expenditure and Harmonised

Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).........................................................................28

4.2.7. Hypothesis 7; Government consolidated gross debt and unemployment

30

4.2.8. Hypothesis 8; Government consolidated gross debt and Harmonised

Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).........................................................................31

4.2.9. Hypothesis 9; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP impact on

Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP).....................................................33

4.2.10. Hypothesis 10; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP impact

on unemployment................................................................................................35

4.3. Event study analysis......................................................................................37

4.3.1. Economic Adjustment Programmes......................................................37

4.3.2. ECB QE programme Greece participation..............................................44

Conclusions..................................................................................................................46

References....................................................................................................................50

Appendix II; Event study input.....................................................................................liii

Appendix III; Event study output................................................................................lviii

4
List of charts

Chart 1: GDP (market prices, adjusted), gross capital formation (unadjusted), general

government consolidated gross debt (unadjusted) and general government final

consumption expenditure (seasonally adjusted).........................................................18

Chart 2: Total general government expenditure in in absolute values and as a GDP

percentage (unadjusted data)......................................................................................19

Chart 3: Total general government revenue in absolute values and as a GDP

percentage...................................................................................................................19

Chart 4: Government consolidated debt in absolute values and as a GDP percentage

......................................................................................................................................19

Chart 5: Net lending(+) or borrowing(-), total general government expenditure and

revenue (unadjusted data)...........................................................................................20

Chart 6: Total unemployment by sex age as a percentage of the labour force and as

percentage of the total population..............................................................................20

Chart 7: Harmonized index of prices ratio...................................................................20

Chart 8: Total population.............................................................................................21

Chart 9: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 1.............................................23

Chart 10: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 2...........................................24

Chart 11: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 7...........................................31

Chart 12: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 8...........................................33

Chart 13: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 9...........................................34

Chart 14: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 10.........................................36

5
6
List of tables

Table 1: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 1.....................................................22

Table 2: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 2.....................................................23

Table 3: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 3.....................................................25

Table 4: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 4.....................................................26

Table 5: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 5.....................................................27

Table 6: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 6.....................................................29

Table 7: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 7.....................................................30

Table 8: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 8.....................................................32

Table 9: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 9.....................................................33

Table 10: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 10.................................................35

Table 11: Economic Adjustment Programmes overview.............................................41

Table 12: Hypotheses testing summary.......................................................................47

Table 13: Macroeconomic indices 1/2.........................................................................liii

Table 14: Macroeconomic indices 2/2.......................................................................lviii

Table 15: Input variables coding.................................................................................lxiii

Table 16: Event study input data................................................................................lxiv

Table 17: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGEXP........................................................................................................................lxviii

Table 18: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGEXP..........................................................................................................................lxix

7
Table 19: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGEXP...........................................................................................................................lxx

Table 20: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on

TGEXP..........................................................................................................................lxxi

Table 21: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGREV.........................................................................................................................lxxii

Table 22: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGREV........................................................................................................................lxxiii

Table 23: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

TGREV........................................................................................................................lxxiv

Table 24: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on

TGREV.........................................................................................................................lxxv

Table 25: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

UNEMP......................................................................................................................lxxvi

Table 26: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

UNEMP.....................................................................................................................lxxvii

Table 27: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

UNEMP....................................................................................................................lxxviii

Table 28: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on

UNEMP......................................................................................................................lxxix

Table 29: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

HICP............................................................................................................................lxxx

Table 30: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

HICP...........................................................................................................................lxxxi

8
Table 31: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on

HICP..........................................................................................................................lxxxii

Table 32: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on

HICP.........................................................................................................................lxxxiii

Table 33: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on

UNEMP....................................................................................................................lxxxiv

Table 34: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on HICP

..................................................................................................................................lxxxv

9
List of figures

Figure 1: 2010 – 2018 financial assistance to Greece (European Council, 2019)........39

Figure 2: Greece reform packages under the 1st to 3rd economic adjustment

programmes 2010 – 2018 (European Council, 2019)..................................................40

Figure 3: Government deficit and real GDP growth rate evolution 2009 – 2019

(European Council, 2019).............................................................................................40

Figure 4: Commitments about the end of the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme

and the period after its completion (European Council, 2019)...................................41

10
 1.1.1. Hypothesis 10; Government consolidated gross debt and GDP
impact on unemployment

H0: The government consolidated gross debt and the GDP do not have an impact on

the unemployment rates

H1: Alternative

Table 1: Linear regression for testing hypothesis 10

The unemployment rate, as a percentage of the population in the labour force,

seasonally adjusted and not calendar adjusted is the dependent value and the

government consolidated gross debt, the GDP and a constant are the independent

variables.

The p-value is 0,0000 <<< 0,01 both for the constant and for the independent

variables. Therefore, the null hypothesis 10 is rejected, stating that the government

consolidated gross debt and the GDP have a statistically significant impact on the

unemployment rates on a 99% confidence level. More specifically, the adjusted R

equals 0,85 reflecting very good model fit. The constant coefficient equals 21,87058

while the intercept coefficients equal 7,51E-5 and -0,000548 for the two

independent variables respectively.

11
The overall model p value equals 0,0000 <<< 0,01, therefore the aforementioned

model can predict the unemployment rates statistically significantly on a 99%

confidence level.

unemployment rates=21,87058+ 7,51E-05× Government consolidated gross debt−0,000548× GDP

The aforementioned model can explain 85% of the change in the unemployment

rates on a 99% confidence level.

Chart 1: Residuals, actual and fitted values for model 10

Moreover, the Durbin – Watson statistic equals 0,081922, which indicates that there

is significant negative autocorrelation between the dependent and the independent

value. Further analysis is provided in the next section. Similarly with model 9, the

model fit and the autocorrelation have been improved via inserting two independent

variables in the model instead of one.

1.2. Event study analysis

As mentioned above, an extended event study analysis has been conducted in the

last part of the analysis. The impact of state budgeting decisions on fiscal numbers

and on macroeconomic indices have been examined. The events whose impact is

examined are the initiation of EU bailout program and the announcement of

Greece’s opting in for the ECB QE program.

12
The event study was based on a Benninga (2008) book (Benninga, 2008), while given

a lack of data for the EU27 or EU28 or EA, a 5 years moving average of the input data

was utilized as the norm for conducting the event study.

1.2.1. Economic Adjustment Programmes

On April 23rd 2010 (2010 Q2), the Greek PM announced that the country would opt

in for a bailout program upon risk of default. Following this announcement, Greece

signed the 1st Economic Adjustment Programme on May 2nd 2010, which would

expire in June 2013. Earlier than the expected expiration of the 1st Economic

Adjustment Programme, the country signed the 2nd Economic Adjustment

Programme on March 1st 2012, with an expected expiration date set for the end of

2014 (European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs,

2014). Following a change in the governing party and extensive negotiations,

including a disputed referendum about a new memorandum (bailout program) and

the imposition of capital controls, the newly elected government signed the 3rd

Economic Adjustment Programme in August 2015, with an expected expiration set

for August 2018 (European Council, 2019).

The 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme ended in August 2018, although the

country keeps undergoing enhanced surveillance evaluations in order to monitor the

commitments made by the Greek Government on the June 22nd 2018 eurogroup

regarding the post memorandum period. The most recent enhanced surveillance

was held on January 2022, while it is worth mentioning that the commitments taken

by the Greek Government post the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme end are

significantly more elastic than those during the Economic Adjustment Programme

active periods.

A comprehensive infographic (Figure 1) is provided below, according to which,

Greece received a total of €256,6 billion between 2010 and 2018, a 0,29% of the

euro area GDP for the aforementioned period. It is worth noticing that upon

13
periodical surveillance reports on the progress of the economic adjustment

programmes, Greece failed to absorb the total of the capital committed. More

specifically, although a total of €310,7 billion was committed in three programmes,

only €256,6 billion or an 82,59% of the total capital committed was disbursed, which

is among others blamed for the reduced Greek economy adjustment (Pagoulatos,

2018; Revuelta, 2021).

Figure 1: 2010 – 2018 financial assistance to Greece (European Council, 2019)

The three aforementioned economic adjustment programmes among providing the

country with an excessive amount of capital to meet liabilities, triggered a total of

14
fifteen reform packages between 2010 and 2018, including the financial sector

reform, the tax reforms, the reform of public administration, the labour and product

market reforms, the pension system reforms, extensive public organizations and

public assets privatization and others, as depicted below in Figure 2;

Figure 2: Greece reform packages under the 1st to 3rd economic adjustment programmes 2010 – 2018
(European Council, 2019)

According to a European Council publication, the impact of the three Economic

Adjustment Programmes on the Greek Economy was huge, including an astonishing

decrease in the government deficit from -15,1% in 2009 to +0,8% (surplus) in 2017

(Figure 3). Moreover, the real GDP growth rate reached 2,3% yoy (forecasted) in

2019 from -4,3% yoy in 2009;

15
 Figure 3: Government deficit and real GDP growth rate evolution 2009 – 2019 (European Council, 2019)

Finally, before concluding the agreed measures, according to a European Council

publication, reforms and commitments agreed upon the completion of the 3rd

Economic Adjustment Programme, the Greek Government agreed to go through

periodical surveillance missions for the next years (Figure 4), definitely overlapping

the data examined in this paper, which reach the end of 2020 Q2 (European Council,

2019);

Figure 4: Commitments about the end of the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme and the period after its
completion (European Council, 2019)

16
 Table 2: Economic Adjustment Programmes overview

1st Economic Adjustment Programme

Agreed; 2 May 2010

PM; G. Papandreou, PASOK

Tenure; May 2010 – June 2013

Committed capital; €107,3 billion (upon Slovakia quitting a €2,7 billion

contribution)

Contributors; €80 billion bilateral Loans pooled from the Euro Area (€80bn) and

€30 billion from the IMF

Objectives;

 Implementation of fiscal consolidation boosting sustainability

 Implementation of financial sector policies to stabilize the economy

 Vast reforms in the Greek Economy structure to increase investments

attraction and exports growth

 Greek credibility restoration as perceived by private investors

Capital disbursed; €52,9 billion were disbursed until the 2nd Economic Adjustment

Programme was agreed

2nd Economic Adjustment Programme

Agreed; 1 March 2012

PM; L. Papademos, ND & PASOK

Tenure; March 2012- December 2014

Committed capital; €164,5 billion

17
Contributors; €144,7 billion from the EFSF and €19,8 billion from the IMF

Objectives;

 Private held debt reduction - restructuring to alleviate the total debt level

 Competitiveness and growth enhancement via enhanced fiscal

consolidation efforts and structural reforms

Upon a Government change, the programme was extended to the end of June

2015 and expired before a new programme agreement. Upon intense

negotiations, the Greek government failed to reimburse roughly €1,5 billion to the

IMF, triggering a three-week bank holiday and the imposition of capital

movement restriction measures.

Capital disbursed; €141,8 billion

3rd Economic Adjustment Programme

Agreed; 19 August 2015

PM; A. Tsipras, SYRIZA & ANEL

Tenure; August 2015- August 2018

Amount; €86bn

Contributors; €86 billion from the ESM

Objectives;

 Fiscal sustainability restoration

 Financial stability maintenance

 Growth, competitiveness and investments attraction enhancement

 Public administration reforms

18
 Capital disbursed; €61,9 billion

Conclusively, the events analyzed forward are linked to the following dates;

 2010 Q2 (1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

 2012 Q1 (2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

 2015 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

 2018 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination)

The conclusions reached upon conducting multiple events studies are provided

below and the corresponding tables are provided in Appendix III;

 No statistically significant critical event is identified in terms of TGEXP (Total

Government Expenditure)

 No statistically significant critical event is identified in terms of TGREV (Total

Government Revenue)

 The unemployment rate (UNEMP) is showing statistically significant abnormal

variances after the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation on a 94%

significance level and after the 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme

termination on a 91% significance level.

 The HICP is showing statistically significant abnormal variances after the 3rd

Economic Adjustment Programme termination on a 74% significance level

1.2.2. ECB QE programme Greece participation

According to De Grauwe & Ji (2015), Greece was excluded from the initial launch of

the European Central Bank Quantitative Easing programme in mid-2014, due to both

technical and political reasons, holding back for Greece significant debt relief which

other Euro Area member states benefited from (De Grauwe & Ji, 2015). According to

Bahceli (2020) and Kourtali (2020), the Greek Economy has benefitted from a

19
significant decrease in capital cost, upon the March 2020 country inclusion in the QE

programme (Bahceli, 2020; Kourtali, 2020). Upon the first debt purchase by the ECD,

the within months purchase of a total of €73 billion Greek bonds by the ECB by

August 2020 led to a significant decrease in the country exposure to debt and to

record low in debt cost (Bahceli & Ranasinghe, 2020).

Yet it is worth mentioning that despite Greek Sovereign Bonds did not participate in

the ECB Assets Repurchase Programme, the ECB started buying Greek banks bonds

as right after the QE program launch, this in 2014 Q2 (Reuters, 2015).

Conclusively, the events analyzed forward are linked to the following dates;

 2014 Q2 (Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds)

 2020Q3 (Inclusion of Greek Sovereign Bonds in the ECB QE programme)

Given the available data reaches 2020Q4, the event study analysis for the latter is

not feasible. Given the findings provided in the previous paragraph, only the UNEMP

and HICP variables abnormal variances were tested using the event study analysis.

 The unemployment rate (UNEMP) is showing statistically significant abnormal

variances after the Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds on a 90%

significance level

 The HICP is showing statistically significant abnormal variances after the

Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds on a 90% significance level

20
Conclusions

State budgeting decisions have a direct impact on both the Government fiscal figures

and on macroeconomic indices. This paper addressed the impact of state budgeting

decisions by the Greek governments on fiscal numbers as well as on macroeconomic

indices, in order to assess the reliability, role, usefulness and overall impact of the

state budgeting on the Greek economy. Given the research topic is rather

unexplored in current literature, this paper introduces novel findings and contributes

towards appraising the role of state budgeting. Greece is a special case, since the

state budgeting decisions have been affected harshly especially during the 2012 –

2018 period, where the country underwent three consecutive economic adjustment

programmes, among others undertaking commitments for state budgeting decisions.

Moreover, the period prior to the first economic adjustment programme initiation,

the reliability, role and effectiveness (usefulness) of the Greek Government decisions

are disputed since the Greek economy was driven close to default. Lastly, during the

post economic adjustment programmes period, the Greek state budgeting decisions

are taken more freely yet under some restrictions following the country

commitments to the June 2018 Eurogroup.

The research conducted under this paper context sat on an expanded dataset for the

2000Q1 - 2020Q4 period, incorporating a total of eighty one quarterly observations

of the gross domestic product, the debt in absolute values as well as a percentage of

the gross domestic product, the gross capital formation, the total net lending, the

expenditure and revenue, in absolute values as well as percentage of the gross

domestic product, the total population, the unemployment rates as a percentage of

the population and a percentage of the total labour force and the harmonized index

of prices ratio. Most of the data has been collected both unadjusted and either

seasonally or calendar or both seasonally and calendar adjusted.

21
A total of ten hypotheses was tested in order to examine the impact of state

budgeting decisions on fiscal numbers and on macroeconomic indices (real

economy). The conclusions reached are provided and discussed below, noting that

the significance level for all the below-mentioned linear and multiple regression

models is 99%;

Table 3: Hypotheses testing summary

Adjusted R
Hypothesis conclusion Proposed model
value

The GDP has a statistically

𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
significant impact on the = 40,30644 − 0,000507 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 47%

unemployment rates

The GDP has a statistically

significant impact on the

𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 = −5,158416 + 0,000143 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑎𝑡 𝑚𝑎𝑟𝑘𝑒𝑡 𝑝𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
42%
quarterly Harmonised Index

of Consumer Prices

The total general

government revenue does

not have a statistically not applying -

significant impact on the

unemployment rates

The total general

government revenue does

not have a statistically

not applying -
significant impact on the

quarterly Harmonised Index

of Consumer Prices

The total general

government expenditure

does not have a statistically

significant impact on the

unemployment rates

The total general

government expenditure

does not have a statistically

significant impact on the

quarterly Harmonised Index

22
 of Consumer Prices

The government

consolidated gross debt has

𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑎𝑠 𝑎 𝑝𝑒𝑟𝑐𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑔𝑒 𝑜𝑓 𝑝𝑜𝑝𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑙𝑎𝑏𝑜𝑢𝑟 𝑓𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑒
a statistically significant = −3,626352 + 7,19𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 66,5%

impact on the

unemployment rates

The government

consolidated gross debt has 𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠 = 7,365510 − 2,07𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡
60%
a statistically significant

impact on the HICP

The government

consolidated gross debt and

𝐻𝑎𝑟𝑚𝑜𝑛𝑖𝑠𝑒𝑑 𝐼𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑥 𝑜𝑓 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑢𝑚𝑒𝑟 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒𝑠
the GDP have a statistically = 0,217276 − 2,14𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 + 0,000153 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃 75%

significant impact on the

HICP

The government

consolidated gross debt and

𝑢𝑛𝑒𝑚𝑝𝑙𝑜𝑦𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑠 = 21,87058 + 7,51𝐸 − 05 × 𝐺𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟𝑛𝑚𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑜𝑛𝑠𝑜𝑙𝑖𝑑𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑔𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑑𝑒𝑏𝑡 − 0,000548 × 𝐺𝐷𝑃
the GDP have a statistically 85%

significant impact on the

unemployment rates

With regards to the events study analyses conducted in the latter part of the

research, the following dates, linked to critical events (related to the Economic

Adjustment Programmes effect and to the ECB QE inclusion), have been utilized

upon researching the literature;

 Economic Adjustment Programme effect

o 2010 Q2 (1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

o 2012 Q1 (2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

o 2015 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation)

o 2018 Q3 (3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination)

 ECB QE inclusion

o 2014 Q2 (Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds)

23
o 2020Q3 (Inclusion of Greek Sovereign Bonds in the ECB QE

programme)

24
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[Accessed 12 February 2022].

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27
Appendix II; Event study input
Table 4: Input variables coding

Raw variable Coded variable

Total general government expenditure / General government / Unadjusted TGEXP

data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) / Million

euro

Total general government revenue / General government / Unadjusted TGREV

data (i.e. neither seasonally adjusted nor calendar adjusted data) / Million

euro

Unemployment by sex and age / Total / Percentage of population in the UNEMP

labour force / From 15 to 74 years / Seasonally adjusted data, not calendar

adjusted data

HICP - monthly data (annual rate of change)*selected the relevant quarters HICP
/ All-items HICP / Annual rate of change

xxviii
 Table 5: Event study input data

TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
2001Q
1 15969       14280       10,8       3,2
2001Q
2 17209 7,77%     15105 5,78%     10,8 0,00%     4,5 40,63%    
2001Q
3 16317 -5,18%     15856 4,97%     10,6 -1,85%     4 -11,11%    
2001Q
4 20493 25,59%     16428 3,61%     11 3,77%     3,5 -12,50%    
2002Q
1 16883 -17,62% 17.374,20   15311 -6,80% 15.396,00   10,9 -0,91% 10,82   4,3 22,86% 3,90  
2002Q
2 19904 17,89% 18.161,20 4,53% 16907 10,42% 15.921,40 3,41% 10,3 -5,50% 10,72 -0,92% 3,6 -16,28% 3,98 2,05%
2002Q
3 18026 -9,44% 18.324,60 0,90% 17099 1,14% 16.320,20 2,50% 10,3 0,00% 10,62 -0,93% 3,8 5,56% 3,84 -3,52%
2002Q
4 20047 11,21% 19.070,60 4,07% 15696 -8,21% 16.288,20 -0,20% 10 -2,91% 10,50 -1,13% 3,5 -7,89% 3,74 -2,60%
2003Q
1 18957 -5,44% 18.763,40 -1,61% 16458 4,85% 16.294,20 0,04% 9,9 -1,00% 10,28 -2,10% 3,9 11,43% 3,82 2,14%
2003Q
2 20908 10,29% 19.568,40 4,29% 17631 7,13% 16.758,20 2,85% 9,8 -1,01% 10,06 -2,14% 3,7 -5,13% 3,70 -3,14%
2003Q
3 20605 -1,45% 19.708,60 0,72% 17741 0,62% 16.925,00 1,00% 9,8 0,00% 9,96 -0,99% 3,3 -10,81% 3,64 -1,62%
2003Q
4 22885 11,07% 20.680,40 4,93% 17516 -1,27% 17.008,40 0,49% 10 2,04% 9,90 -0,60% 3,1 -6,06% 3,50 -3,85%
2004Q
1 20617 -9,91% 20.794,40 0,55% 16546 -5,54% 17.178,40 1,00% 10,8 8,00% 10,06 1,62% 2,9 -6,45% 3,38 -3,43%
2004Q
2 26397 28,04% 22.282,40 7,16% 19370 17,07% 17.760,80 3,39% 10,5 -2,78% 10,18 1,19% 3 3,45% 3,20 -5,33%
2004Q
3 21544 -18,38% 22.409,60 0,57% 19554 0,95% 18.145,40 2,17% 10,6 0,95% 10,34 1,57% 2,9 -3,33% 3,04 -5,00%
2004Q
4 23679 9,91% 23.024,40 2,74% 19666 0,57% 18.530,40 2,12% 10,5 -0,94% 10,48 1,35% 3,1 6,90% 3,00 -1,32%
2005Q
1 19981 -15,62% 22.443,60 -2,52% 17027 -13,42% 18.432,60 -0,53% 10,1 -3,81% 10,50 0,19% 2,8 -9,68% 2,94 -2,00%

xxix
 TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
2005Q
2 25925 29,75% 23.505,20 4,73% 19524 14,66% 19.028,20 3,23% 10 -0,99% 10,34 -1,52% 3,2 14,29% 3,00 2,04%
2005Q
3 20598 -20,55% 22.345,40 -4,93% 20202 3,47% 19.194,60 0,87% 10,1 1,00% 10,26 -0,77% 3,8 18,75% 3,16 5,33%
2005Q
4 24274 17,85% 22.891,40 2,44% 21696 7,40% 19.623,00 2,23% 9,7 -3,96% 10,08 -1,75% 3,5 -7,89% 3,28 3,80%
2006Q
1 21483 -11,50% 22.452,20 -1,92% 19457 -10,32% 19.581,20 -0,21% 9,4 -3,09% 9,86 -2,18% 3,3 -5,71% 3,32 1,22%
2006Q
2 27945 30,08% 24.045,00 7,09% 22078 13,47% 20.591,40 5,16% 9,2 -2,13% 9,68 -1,83% 3,4 3,03% 3,44 3,61%
2006Q
3 22282 -20,26% 23.316,40 -3,03% 21368 -3,22% 20.960,20 1,79% 8,9 -3,26% 9,46 -2,27% 3,1 -8,82% 3,42 -0,58%
2006Q
4 26582 19,30% 24.513,20 5,13% 22435 4,99% 21.406,80 2,13% 8,8 -1,12% 9,20 -2,75% 3,2 3,23% 3,30 -3,51%
2007Q
1 24202 -8,95% 24.498,80 -0,06% 20776 -7,39% 21.222,80 -0,86% 8,7 -1,14% 9,00 -2,17% 2,8 -12,50% 3,16 -4,24%
2007Q
2 31061 28,34% 26.414,40 7,82% 23867 14,88% 22.104,80 4,16% 8,5 -2,30% 8,82 -2,00% 2,6 -7,14% 3,02 -4,43%
2007Q
3 24918 -19,78% 25.809,00 -2,29% 23134 -3,07% 22.316,00 0,96% 8,4 -1,18% 8,66 -1,81% 3 15,38% 2,94 -2,65%
2007Q
4 29347 17,77% 27.222,00 5,47% 26144 13,01% 23.271,20 4,28% 8,1 -3,57% 8,50 -1,85% 3,9 30,00% 3,10 5,44%
2008Q
1 26986 -8,05% 27.302,80 0,30% 21973 -15,95% 23.178,80 -0,40% 7,8 -3,70% 8,30 -2,35% 4,4 12,82% 3,34 7,74%
2008Q
2 35325 30,90% 29.527,40 8,15% 25918 17,95% 24.207,20 4,44% 7,6 -2,56% 8,08 -2,65% 4,9 11,36% 3,76 12,57%
2008Q
3 28116 -20,41% 28.938,40 -1,99% 24337 -6,10% 24.301,20 0,39% 7,8 2,63% 7,94 -1,73% 4,7 -4,08% 4,18 11,17%
2008Q
4 32614 16,00% 30.477,60 5,32% 26188 7,61% 24.912,00 2,51% 8 2,56% 7,86 -1,01% 2,2 -53,19% 4,02 -3,83%
2009Q
1 28036 -14,04% 30.215,40 -0,86% 19521 -25,46% 23.587,40 -5,32% 8,9 11,25% 8,02 2,04% 1,5 -31,82% 3,54 -11,94%
2009Q
2 32538 16,06% 31.325,80 3,67% 23575 20,77% 23.907,80 1,36% 9,3 4,49% 8,32 3,74% 0,7 -53,33% 2,80 -20,90%
2009Q
3 29905 -8,09% 30.241,80 -3,46% 21738 -7,79% 23.071,80 -3,50% 9,9 6,45% 8,78 5,53% 0,7 0,00% 1,96 -30,00%
2009Q
4 37990 27,04% 32.216,60 6,53% 27654 27,22% 23.735,20 2,88% 10,4 5,05% 9,30 5,92% 2,5 257,14% 1,52 -22,45%
2010Q 28984 -23,71% -2,25% 20300 -26,59% -4,96% 11,3 8,65% 9,96 7,10% 3,9 56,00% 1,86 22,37%

xxx
 TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
1 31.490,60 22.557,60
2010Q
2 28238 -2,57% 31.531,00 0,13% 22469 10,68% 23.147,20 2,61% 12,3 8,85% 10,64 6,83% 5,2 33,33% 2,60 39,78%
2010Q
3 27611 -2,22% 30.545,60 -3,13% 22320 -0,66% 22.896,20 -1,08% 13,1 6,50% 11,40 7,14% 5,7 9,62% 3,60 38,46%
2010Q
4 33857 22,62% 31.336,00 2,59% 28292 26,76% 24.207,00 5,72% 14,2 8,40% 12,26 7,54% 5,2 -8,77% 4,50 25,00%
2011Q
1 24236 -28,42% 28.585,20 -8,78% 20042 -29,16% 22.684,60 -6,29% 15,6 9,86% 13,30 8,48% 4,3 -17,31% 4,86 8,00%
2011Q
2 28227 16,47% 28.433,80 -0,53% 20855 4,06% 22.795,60 0,49% 16,9 8,33% 14,42 8,42% 3,1 -27,91% 4,70 -3,29%
2011Q
3 27599 -2,22% 28.306,00 -0,45% 22125 6,09% 22.726,80 -0,30% 18,5 9,47% 15,66 8,60% 2,9 -6,45% 4,24 -9,79%
2011Q
4 32002 15,95% 29.184,20 3,10% 27762 25,48% 23.815,20 4,79% 20,7 11,89% 17,18 9,71% 2,2 -24,14% 3,54 -16,51%
2012Q
1 23649 -26,10% 27.142,60 -7,00% 19713 -28,99% 22.099,40 -7,20% 22,3 7,73% 18,80 9,43% 1,3 -40,91% 2,76 -22,03%
2012Q
2 25743 8,85% 27.444,00 1,11% 21814 10,66% 22.453,80 1,60% 24 7,62% 20,48 8,94% 1 -23,08% 2,10 -23,91%
2012Q
3 28613 11,15% 27.521,20 0,28% 22377 2,58% 22.758,20 1,36% 25,4 5,83% 22,18 8,30% 0,3 -70,00% 1,54 -26,67%
2012Q
4 28839 0,79% 27.769,20 0,90% 25814 15,36% 23.496,00 3,24% 26,2 3,15% 23,72 6,94% 0,3 0,00% 1,02 -33,77%
2013Q
1 24090 -16,47% 26.186,80 -5,70% 17837 -30,90% 21.511,00 -8,45% 27,1 3,44% 25,00 5,40% -0,2 -166,67% 0,54 -47,06%
2013Q
2 34102 41,56% 28.277,40 7,98% 20119 12,79% 21.592,20 0,38% 27,5 1,48% 26,04 4,16% -0,2 0,00% 0,24 -55,56%
2013Q
3 26076 -23,54% 28.344,00 0,24% 24467 21,61% 22.122,80 2,46% 27,6 0,36% 26,76 2,76% -1 400,00% - 0,16 -166,67%
2013Q
4 28658 9,90% 28.353,00 0,03% 26487 8,26% 22.944,80 3,72% 27,6 0,00% 27,20 1,64% -1,8 80,00% - 0,58 262,50%
2014Q
1 20486 -28,52% 26.682,40 -5,89% 17577 -33,64% 21.297,40 -7,18% 27,3 -1,09% 27,42 0,81% -1,5 -16,67% - 0,94 62,07%
2014Q
2 22243 8,58% 26.313,00 -1,38% 20670 17,60% 21.864,00 2,66% 26,9 -1,47% 27,38 -0,15% -1,5 0,00% - 1,20 27,66%
2014Q
3 21408 -3,75% 23.774,20 -9,65% 20693 0,11% 21.978,80 0,53% 26,2 -2,60% 27,12 -0,95% -1,1 -26,67% - 1,38 15,00%
2014Q
4 25776 20,40% 23.714,20 -0,25% 24547 18,62% 21.994,80 0,07% 26 -0,76% 26,80 -1,18% -2,5 127,27% - 1,68 21,74%

xxxi
 TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
2015Q
1 20990 -18,57% 22.180,60 -6,47% 17042 -30,57% 20.105,80 -8,59% 25,8 -0,77% 26,44 -1,34% -1,9 -24,00% - 1,70 1,19%
2015Q
2 21676 3,27% 22.418,60 1,07% 19814 16,27% 20.553,20 2,23% 24,9 -3,49% 25,96 -1,82% -1,1 -42,11% - 1,62 -4,71%
2015Q
3 21010 -3,07% 22.172,00 -1,10% 19998 0,93% 20.418,80 -0,65% 24,7 -0,80% 25,52 -1,69% -0,8 -27,27% - 1,48 -8,64%
2015Q
4 31660 50,69% 24.222,40 9,25% 28123 40,63% 21.904,80 7,28% 24,3 -1,62% 25,14 -1,49% 0,4 -150,00% - 1,18 -20,27%
2016Q
1 19992 -36,85% 23.065,60 -4,78% 17957 -36,15% 20.586,80 -6,02% 24,1 -0,82% 24,76 -1,51% -0,7 -275,00% - 0,82 -30,51%
2016Q
2 20308 1,58% 22.929,20 -0,59% 20391 13,55% 21.256,60 3,25% 23,6 -2,07% 24,32 -1,78% 0,2 -128,57% - 0,40 -51,22%
2016Q
3 21143 4,11% 22.822,60 -0,46% 23589 15,68% 22.011,60 3,55% 23,2 -1,69% 23,98 -1,40% -0,1 -150,00% - 0,20 -50,00%
2016Q
4 25711 21,61% 23.762,80 4,12% 25641 8,70% 23.140,20 5,13% 23,2 0,00% 23,68 -1,25% 0,3 -400,00% 0,02 -110,00%
2017Q 1300,00
1 19196 -25,34% 21.270,00 -10,49% 17605 -31,34% 21.036,60 -9,09% 22,5 -3,02% 23,32 -1,52% 1,7 466,67% 0,28 %
2017Q
2 20422 6,39% 21.356,00 0,40% 20331 15,48% 21.511,40 2,26% 21,7 -3,56% 22,84 -2,06% 0,9 -47,06% 0,60 114,29%
2017Q
3 20596 0,85% 21.413,60 0,27% 23560 15,88% 22.145,20 2,95% 21 -3,23% 22,32 -2,28% 1 11,11% 0,76 26,67%
2017Q
4 25659 24,58% 22.316,80 4,22% 25400 7,81% 22.507,40 1,64% 20,9 -0,48% 21,86 -2,06% 1 0,00% 0,98 28,95%
2018Q
1 19894 -22,47% 21.153,40 -5,21% 18965 -25,33% 21.172,20 -5,93% 20,3 -2,87% 21,28 -2,65% 0,2 -80,00% 0,96 -2,04%
2018Q
2 20349 2,29% 21.384,00 1,09% 20210 6,56% 21.693,20 2,46% 19,5 -3,94% 20,68 -2,82% 1 400,00% 0,82 -14,58%
2018Q
3 20877 2,59% 21.475,00 0,43% 23493 16,24% 22.325,60 2,92% 19 -2,56% 20,14 -2,61% 1,1 10,00% 0,86 4,88%
2018Q
4 26017 24,62% 22.559,20 5,05% 26139 11,26% 22.841,40 2,31% 18,4 -3,16% 19,62 -2,58% 0,6 -45,45% 0,78 -9,30%
2019Q
1 19777 -23,98% 21.382,80 -5,21% 17832 -31,78% 21.327,80 -6,63% 18,4 0,00% 19,12 -2,55% 1 66,67% 0,78 0,00%
2019Q
2 22388 13,20% 21.881,60 2,33% 22284 24,97% 21.991,60 3,11% 17,2 -6,52% 18,50 -3,24% 0,2 -80,00% 0,78 0,00%
2019Q
3 21484 -4,04% 22.108,60 1,04% 23826 6,92% 22.714,80 3,29% 16,9 -1,74% 17,98 -2,81% 0,2 0,00% 0,62 -20,51%
2019Q 24116 12,25% 2,93% 25922 8,80% 2,14% 16,6 -1,78% 17,50 -2,67% 1,1 450,00% 0,62 0,00%

xxxii
 TIME TGEXP Change 5y MAV Change TGREV Change 5y MAV Change UNEMP Change 5y MAV Change HICP Change 5y MAV Change
4 22.756,40 23.200,60
2020Q
1 20306 -15,80% 21.614,20 -5,02% 17331 -33,14% 21.439,00 -7,59% 15,9 -4,22% 17,00 -2,86% 0,2 -81,82% 0,54 -12,90%
2020Q -
2 23998 18,18% 22.458,40 3,91% 18099 4,43% 21.492,40 0,25% 16,8 5,66% 16,68 -1,88% -1,9 1050,00% - 0,04 -107,41%
2020Q 1250,00
3 23911 -0,36% 22.763,00 1,36% 21413 18,31% 21.318,20 -0,81% 16,5 -1,79% 16,54 -0,84% -2,3 21,05% - 0,54 %
2020Q
4 32430 35,63% 24.952,20 9,62% 27672 29,23% 22.087,40 3,61% 16 -3,03% 16,36 -1,09% -2,4 4,35% - 1,06 96,30%

xxxiii
Appendix III; Event study output
Table 6: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2007Q4 -0,261015 -1,247894 0,986879 15,189705
-9 2008Q1 -0,284166 -1,353630 1,069464 16,460827
-8 2008Q2 0,164672 0,696333 -0,531660 -8,183134
-7 2008Q3 -0,022248 -0,157383 0,135135 2,079950
-6 2008Q4 0,159535 0,672868 -0,513333 -7,901047
-5 2009Q1 -0,261015 -1,247894 0,986879 15,189705
-4 2009Q2 0,088545 0,348639 -0,260094 -4,003273
-3 2009Q3 0,111487 0,453419 -0,341933 -5,262910
-2 2009Q4 0,007899 -0,019695 0,027594 0,424711
-1 2010Q1           -0,164673 -0,807874 0,643201 9,899934
1 -0,05577 4,56726 0,06497
0 2010Q2 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2010Q2 -0,025738 -0,173323 0,147585 2,271580
1 2010Q3 -0,235353 -1,130688 0,895335 13,780695
2 2010Q4 0,099018 0,396473 -0,297455 -4,578321
3 2011Q1 -0,285156 -1,358152 1,072996 16,515196
4 2011Q2 0,085766 0,335946 -0,250180 -3,850685
5 2011Q3 -0,037540 -0,227224 0,189684 2,919558
6 2011Q4 0,204036 0,876116 -0,672080 -10,344431
7 2012Q1 -0,185677 -0,903804 0,718127 11,053169
8 2012Q2 0,032682 0,093499 -0,060817 -0,936067
9 2012Q3 -0,030725 -0,196100 0,165375 2,545390
10 2012Q4           0,506901 2,259383 -1,752482 -26,973605

xxxiv
 Table 7: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2009Q3 -0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
-9 2009Q4 -0,284166 -1,168270 0,884104 10,731686
-8 2010Q1 0,164672 0,638934 -0,474262 -5,756822
-7 2010Q2 -0,022248 -0,113684 0,091435 1,109888
-6 2010Q3 0,159535 0,618248 -0,458713 -5,568087
-5 2010Q4 -0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
-4 2011Q1 0,088545 0,332414 -0,243870 -2,960207
-3 2011Q2 0,111487 0,424787 -0,313300 -3,802991
-2 2011Q3 0,007899 0,007699 0,000199 0,002420
-1 2011Q4           -0,164673 -0,687143 0,522470 6,341997
-
1 4,02640 0,08238
0 2012Q1 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2012Q1 0,02410 -0,261015 -1,075055 0,814040 9,881218
1 2012Q2 -0,235353 -0,971729 0,736376 8,938493
2 2012Q3 0,099018 0,374584 -0,275566 -3,344953
3 2012Q4 -0,285156 -1,172257 0,887101 10,768063
4 2013Q1 0,085766 0,321225 -0,235459 -2,858115
5 2013Q2 -0,037540 -0,175254 0,137714 1,671644
6 2013Q3 0,204036 0,797428 -0,593392 -7,202878
7 2013Q4 -0,185677 -0,771713 0,586036 7,113590
8 2014Q1 0,032682 0,107488 -0,074806 -0,908035
9 2014Q2 -0,030725 -0,147816 0,117090 1,421300
10 2014Q3           0,506901 2,016887 -1,509986 -18,328943

xxxv
 Table 8: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGEXP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2013Q1 -0,261015 -0,927036 0,666021 6,442824
-9 2013Q2 -0,284166 -1,009329 0,725163 7,014933
-8 2013Q3 0,164672 0,586115 -0,421443 -4,076867
-7 2013Q4 -0,022248 -0,078314 0,056066 0,542361
-6 2014Q1 0,159535 0,567853 -0,408318 -3,949904
-5 2014Q2 -0,261015 -0,927036 0,666021 6,442824
-4 2014Q3 0,088545 0,315512 -0,226967 -2,195587
-3 2014Q4 0,111487 0,397060 -0,285574 -2,762527
-2 2015Q1 0,007899 0,028845 -0,020947 -0,202632
-1 2015Q2           -0,164673 -0,584578 0,419905 4,061994
1 0,00077 3,55461 0,10337
0 2015Q3 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2015Q3 -0,030725 -0,108447 0,077722 0,751848
1 2015Q4 -0,235353 -0,835817 0,600465 5,808654
2 2016Q1 0,099018 0,352740 -0,253722 -2,454405
3 2016Q2 -0,285156 -1,012848 0,727692 7,039403
4 2016Q3 0,085766 0,305633 -0,219867 -2,126910
5 2016Q4 -0,037540 -0,132670 0,095130 0,920253
6 2017Q1 0,204036 0,726037 -0,522001 -5,049627
7 2017Q2 -0,185677 -0,659238 0,473562 4,581044
8 2017Q3 0,032682 0,116942 -0,084260 -0,815093
9 2017Q4 -0,030725 -0,108447 0,077722 0,751848
10 2018Q1           0,506901 1,802605 -1,295704 -12,534117

xxxvi
 Table 9: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on TGEXP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2016Q1 0,025947 0,102193 -0,076245 -0,751974
-9 2016Q2 -0,284166 -1,052044 0,767878 7,573228
-8 2016Q3 0,164672 0,618526 -0,453853 -4,476149
-7 2016Q4 -0,022248 -0,077190 0,054942 0,541866
-6 2017Q1 0,159535 0,599404 -0,439869 -4,338226
-5 2017Q2 -0,261015 -0,965877 0,704862 6,951728
-4 2017Q3 0,088545 0,335181 -0,246636 -2,432455
-3 2017Q4 0,111487 0,420569 -0,309083 -3,048340
-2 2018Q1 0,007899 0,035016 -0,027117 -0,267444
-1 2018Q2           -0,164673 -0,607293 0,442620 4,365356
1 0,00562 3,72199 0,10139
0 2018Q3 Greece TGEXP 30 3 2018Q3 -0,025738 -0,090180 0,064442 0,635561
1 2018Q4 -0,235353 -0,870362 0,635010 6,262809
2 2019Q1 0,099018 0,374162 -0,275144 -2,713618
3 2019Q2 -0,285156 -1,055729 0,770573 7,599811
4 2019Q3 0,085766 0,324837 -0,239071 -2,357849
5 2019Q4 -0,037540 -0,134106 0,096566 0,952383
6 2020Q1 0,204036 0,765036 -0,561000 -5,532890
7 2020Q2 -0,185677 -0,685468 0,499792 4,929217
8 2020Q3 0,032682 0,127260 -0,094578 -0,932780
9 2020Q4 -0,030725 -0,108741 0,078016 0,769438
10 0           0,506901 1,892298 -1,385396 -13,663531

xxxvii
 Table 10: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2007Q4 0,162444 0,674051 -0,511607 -7,451778
-9 2008Q1 -0,291602 -1,309969 1,018368 14,832971
-8 2008Q2 0,040565 0,141481 -0,100916 -1,469888
-7 2008Q3 0,060897 0,230324 -0,169427 -2,467782
-6 2008Q4 0,254780 1,077524 -0,822744 -11,983628
-5 2009Q1 -0,289929 -1,302658 1,012729 14,750851
-4 2009Q2 0,106579 0,429941 -0,323362 -4,709908
-3 2009Q3 0,025809 0,077004 -0,051195 -0,745673
-2 2009Q4 0,153595 0,635384 -0,481788 -7,017460
-1 2010Q1           -0,309018 -1,386073 1,077055 15,687779
0 2010Q2 Greece TGREV 30 3 2010Q2 -0,03577 4,36964 0,06866 0,106847 0,431112 -0,324264 -4,723055
1 2010Q3 0,216114 0,908569 -0,692455 -10,085910
2 2010Q4 0,082560 0,324986 -0,242426 -3,531035
3 2011Q1 -0,336391 -1,505684 1,169292 17,031259
4 2011Q2 0,175969 0,733147 -0,557179 -8,115553
5 2011Q3 0,001113 -0,030911 0,032023 0,466435
6 2011Q4 0,186247 0,778058 -0,591812 -8,619999
7 2012Q1 -0,305740 -1,371748 1,066008 15,526876
8 2012Q2 0,162657 0,674980 -0,512323 -7,462214
9 2012Q3 0,009286 0,004805 0,004481 0,065270
10 2012Q4           0,406291 1,739573 -1,333282 -19,419841

xxxviii
 Table 11: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2009Q3 0,162444 0,670129 -0,507685 -7,486579
-9 2009Q4 -0,291602 -1,267761 0,976159 14,394939
-8 2010Q1 0,040565 0,149942 -0,109377 -1,612928
-7 2010Q2 0,060897 0,236719 -0,175822 -2,592766
-6 2010Q3 0,254780 1,064221 -0,809441 -11,936428
-5 2010Q4 -0,289929 -1,260620 0,970691 14,314304
-4 2011Q1 0,106579 0,431695 -0,325116 -4,794322
-3 2011Q2 0,025809 0,086964 -0,061155 -0,901817
-2 2011Q3 0,153595 0,632361 -0,478766 -7,060120
-1 2011Q4           -0,309018 -1,342095 1,033077 15,234280
0 2012Q1 Greece TGREV 30 3 2012Q1 -0,02319 4,26805 0,06781 -0,289929 -1,260620 0,970691 14,314304
1 2012Q2 0,216114 0,899194 -0,683080 -10,073048
2 2012Q3 0,082560 0,329180 -0,246620 -3,636780
3 2012Q4 -0,336391 -1,458925 1,122534 16,553450
4 2013Q1 0,175969 0,727851 -0,551883 -8,138344
5 2013Q2 0,001113 -0,018442 0,019554 0,288358
6 2013Q3 0,186247 0,771718 -0,585472 -8,633662
7 2013Q4 -0,305740 -1,328103 1,022363 15,076288
8 2014Q1 0,162657 0,671037 -0,508380 -7,496826
9 2014Q2 0,009286 0,016444 -0,007158 -0,105549
10 2014Q3           0,406291 1,710877 -1,304586 -19,238086

xxxix
 Table 12: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on TGREV

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2013Q1 0,162444 0,662002 -0,499558 -6,839969
-9 2013Q2 -0,291602 -1,203093 0,911492 12,480189
-8 2013Q3 0,040565 0,161355 -0,120790 -1,653863
-7 2013Q4 0,060897 0,244872 -0,183976 -2,519006
-6 2014Q1 0,254780 1,041290 -0,786510 -10,768938
-5 2014Q2 -0,289929 -1,196220 0,906292 12,408993
-4 2014Q3 0,106579 0,432524 -0,325945 -4,462856
-3 2014Q4 0,025809 0,100743 -0,074933 -1,025992
-2 2015Q1 0,153595 0,625652 -0,472057 -6,463430
-1 2015Q2           -0,309018 -1,274635 0,965617 13,221280
0 2015Q3 Greece TGREV 30 3 2015Q3 -0,00527 4,10772 0,07304 0,009286 0,032872 -0,023585 -0,322931
1 2015Q4 0,216114 0,882463 -0,666348 -9,123677
2 2016Q1 0,082560 0,333860 -0,251300 -3,440812
3 2016Q2 -0,336391 -1,387076 1,050685 14,386034
4 2016Q3 0,175969 0,717556 -0,541587 -7,415441
5 2016Q4 0,001113 -0,000703 0,001816 0,024866
6 2017Q1 0,186247 0,759775 -0,573528 -7,852780
7 2017Q2 -0,305740 -1,261169 0,955429 13,081783
8 2017Q3 0,162657 0,662875 -0,500218 -6,849017
9 2017Q4 0,009286 0,032872 -0,023585 -0,322931
10 2018Q1           0,406291 1,663655 -1,257364 -17,215894

xl
 Table 13: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on TGREV

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2016Q1 0,162444 0,675800 -0,513356 -7,154411
-9 2016Q2 -0,291602 -1,224234 0,932632 12,997676
-8 2016Q3 0,040565 0,165774 -0,125210 -1,744991
-7 2016Q4 0,060897 0,250857 -0,189960 -2,647386
-6 2017Q1 0,254780 1,062193 -0,807414 -11,252561
-5 2017Q2 -0,289929 -1,217232 0,927304 12,923415
-4 2017Q3 0,106579 0,442024 -0,335444 -4,674939
-3 2017Q4 0,025809 0,104027 -0,078218 -1,090083
-2 2018Q1 0,153595 0,638770 -0,485174 -6,761657
-1 2018Q2           -0,309018 -1,297116 0,988098 13,770679
1 -0,00398 4,18467 0,07175
0 2018Q3 Greece TGREV 30 3 2018Q3 0,106847 0,443145 -0,336298 -4,686828
1 2018Q4 0,216114 0,900391 -0,684277 -9,536455
2 2019Q1 0,082560 0,341511 -0,258951 -3,608885
3 2019Q2 -0,336391 -1,411664 1,075272 14,985587
4 2019Q3 0,175969 0,732395 -0,556426 -7,754663
5 2019Q4 0,001113 0,000680 0,000432 0,006025
6 2020Q1 0,186247 0,775405 -0,589158 -8,210833
7 2020Q2 -0,305740 -1,283398 0,977658 13,625174
8 2020Q3 0,162657 0,676690 -0,514033 -7,163848
9 2020Q4 0,009286 0,034884 -0,025598 -0,356748
10 0           0,406291 1,696217 -1,289926 -17,977124

xli
 Table 14: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2007Q4 -0,025641 -0,022852 -0,002789 -0,102948
-9 2008Q1 0,098592 0,117978 -0,019386 -0,715558
-8 2008Q2 0,083333 0,100681 -0,017348 -0,640318
-7 2008Q3 0,094675 0,113538 -0,018863 -0,696243
-6 2008Q4 0,118919 0,141021 -0,022102 -0,815796
-5 2009Q1 0,077295 0,093836 -0,016541 -0,610540
-4 2009Q2 0,076233 0,092632 -0,016399 -0,605306
-3 2009Q3 0,058333 0,072341 -0,014008 -0,517039
-2 2009Q4 0,031496 0,041919 -0,010422 -0,384700
-1 2010Q1           0,034351 0,045155 -0,010804 -0,398779
0 2010Q2 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2010Q2 0,00621 1,13360 0,02709 0,088496 0,106533 -0,018037 -0,665774
1 2010Q3 0,003636 0,010337 -0,006700 -0,247319
2 2010Q4 0,000000 0,006215 -0,006215 -0,229388
3 2011Q1 -0,010870 -0,006107 -0,004763 -0,175788
4 2011Q2 -0,014652 -0,010395 -0,004257 -0,157136
5 2011Q3 -0,026022 -0,023284 -0,002738 -0,101068
6 2011Q4 -0,007634 -0,002439 -0,005195 -0,191745
7 2012Q1 -0,007692 -0,002505 -0,005187 -0,191456
8 2012Q2 -0,034884 -0,033329 -0,001554 -0,057371
9 2012Q3 -0,008032 -0,002891 -0,005142 -0,189780
10 2012Q4           -0,016194 -0,012143 -0,004051 -0,149531

xlii
 Table 15: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2009Q3 -0,025641 -0,021340 -0,004301 -0,170846
-9 2009Q4 0,098592 0,107587 -0,008996 -0,357375
-8 2010Q1 0,083333 0,091752 -0,008419 -0,334465
-7 2010Q2 0,094675 0,103522 -0,008848 -0,351494
-6 2010Q3 0,118919 0,128683 -0,009764 -0,387895
-5 2010Q4 0,077295 0,085486 -0,008191 -0,325399
-4 2011Q1 0,076233 0,084384 -0,008151 -0,323805
-3 2011Q2 0,058333 0,065808 -0,007474 -0,296929
-2 2011Q3 0,031496 0,037956 -0,006460 -0,256634
-1 2011Q4           0,034351 0,040919 -0,006568 -0,260921
0 2012Q1 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2012Q1 0,00527 1,03779 0,02517 0,077295 0,085486 -0,008191 -0,325399
1 2012Q2 0,003636 0,009043 -0,005407 -0,214805
2 2012Q3 0,000000 0,005270 -0,005270 -0,209345
3 2012Q4 -0,010870 -0,006011 -0,004859 -0,193025
4 2013Q1 -0,014652 -0,009936 -0,004716 -0,187346
5 2013Q2 -0,026022 -0,021736 -0,004286 -0,170274
6 2013Q3 -0,007634 -0,002652 -0,004981 -0,197883
7 2013Q4 -0,007692 -0,002713 -0,004979 -0,197795
8 2014Q1 -0,034884 -0,030933 -0,003951 -0,156969
9 2014Q2 -0,008032 -0,003066 -0,004966 -0,197285
10 2014Q3           -0,016194 -0,011537 -0,004658 -0,185030

xliii
 Table 16: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on UNEMP

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2013Q1 -0,025641 -0,023720 -0,001921 -0,079002
-9 2013Q2 0,098592 0,095987 0,002604 0,107124
-8 2013Q3 0,083333 0,081285 0,002049 0,084264
-7 2013Q4 0,094675 0,092213 0,002462 0,101255
-6 2014Q1 0,118919 0,115574 0,003345 0,137578
-5 2014Q2 0,077295 0,075466 0,001829 0,075217
-4 2014Q3 0,076233 0,074443 0,001790 0,073626
-3 2014Q4 0,058333 0,057195 0,001138 0,046809
-2 2015Q1 0,031496 0,031336 0,000160 0,006601
-1 2015Q2           0,034351 0,034087 0,000264 0,010879
0 2015Q3 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2015Q3 0,00099 0,96358 0,02431 -0,008032 -0,006753 -0,001279 -0,052620
1 2015Q4 0,003636 0,004491 -0,000854 -0,035139
2 2016Q1 0,000000 0,000987 -0,000987 -0,040587
3 2016Q2 -0,010870 -0,009487 -0,001383 -0,056871
4 2016Q3 -0,014652 -0,013132 -0,001520 -0,062538
5 2016Q4 -0,026022 -0,024088 -0,001934 -0,079573
6 2017Q1 -0,007634 -0,006369 -0,001265 -0,052023
7 2017Q2 -0,007692 -0,006425 -0,001267 -0,052111
8 2017Q3 -0,034884 -0,032626 -0,002257 -0,092849
9 2017Q4 -0,008032 -0,006753 -0,001279 -0,052620
10 2018Q1           -0,016194 -0,014618 -0,001577 -0,064849

xliv
 Table 17: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on UNEMP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2016Q1 -0,025641 -0,024952 -0,000689 -0,030880
-9 2016Q2 0,098592 0,096624 0,001968 0,088195
-8 2016Q3 0,083333 0,081692 0,001641 0,073570
-7 2016Q4 0,094675 0,092791 0,001884 0,084441
-6 2017Q1 0,118919 0,116516 0,002402 0,107679
-5 2017Q2 0,077295 0,075782 0,001512 0,067782
-4 2017Q3 0,076233 0,074744 0,001490 0,066765
-3 2017Q4 0,058333 0,057227 0,001107 0,049608
-2 2018Q1 0,031496 0,030963 0,000533 0,023885
-1 2018Q2           0,034351 0,033757 0,000594 0,026621
1 0,00014 0,97861 0,02231
0 2018Q3 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2018Q3 0,088496 0,086744 0,001752 0,078518
1 2018Q4 0,003636 0,003699 -0,000063 -0,002818
2 2019Q1 0,000000 0,000141 -0,000141 -0,006304
3 2019Q2 -0,010870 -0,010496 -0,000373 -0,016722
4 2019Q3 -0,014652 -0,014198 -0,000454 -0,020347
5 2019Q4 -0,026022 -0,025325 -0,000697 -0,031246
6 2020Q1 -0,007634 -0,007330 -0,000304 -0,013620
7 2020Q2 -0,007692 -0,007387 -0,000305 -0,013677
8 2020Q3 -0,034884 -0,033997 -0,000887 -0,039739
9 2020Q4 -0,008032 -0,007720 -0,000312 -0,014002
10 0           -0,016194 -0,015707 -0,000487 -0,021826

xlv
 Table 18: Event Study 1st Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2007Q4 0,100000 0,061166 0,038834 0,076150
-9 2008Q1 -0,173077 0,103908 -0,276985 -0,543150
-8 2008Q2 -0,279070 0,120498 -0,399568 -0,783526
-7 2008Q3 -0,064516 0,086916 -0,151432 -0,296949
-6 2008Q4 -0,241379 0,114599 -0,355978 -0,698050
-5 2009Q1 -0,409091 0,140849 -0,549940 -1,078396
-4 2009Q2 -0,230769 0,112938 -0,343708 -0,673988
-3 2009Q3 -0,700000 0,186383 -0,886383 -1,738137
-2 2009Q4 0,000000 0,076818 -0,076818 -0,150635
-1 2010Q1           -1,666667 0,337686 -2,004353 -3,930401
1 0,07682 -0,15652 0,50996
0 2010Q2 Greece HICP 30 3 2010Q2 0,333333 0,024645 0,308689 0,605318
1 2010Q3 4,000000 -0,549264 4,549264 8,920802
2 2010Q4 0,800000 -0,048398 0,848398 1,663652
3 2011Q1 -0,166667 0,102905 -0,269572 -0,528612
4 2011Q2 0,000000 0,076818 -0,076818 -0,150635
5 2011Q3 -0,266667 0,118557 -0,385224 -0,755398
6 2011Q4 1,272727 -0,122390 1,395117 2,735731
7 2012Q1 -0,240000 0,114383 -0,354383 -0,694922
8 2012Q2 -0,421053 0,142722 -0,563774 -1,105524
9 2012Q3 -0,272727 0,119506 -0,392233 -0,769143
10 2012Q4           -1,500000 0,311599 -1,811599 -3,552424

xlvi
 Table 19: Event Study 2nd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2009Q3 0,100000 0,041616 0,058384 0,123183
-9 2009Q4 -0,173077 0,021017 -0,194094 -0,409516
-8 2010Q1 -0,279070 0,013022 -0,292091 -0,616279
-7 2010Q2 -0,064516 0,029206 -0,093722 -0,197743
-6 2010Q3 -0,241379 0,015865 -0,257244 -0,542755
-5 2010Q4 -0,409091 0,003214 -0,412305 -0,869915
-4 2011Q1 -0,230769 0,016665 -0,247434 -0,522058
-3 2011Q2 -0,700000 -0,018730 -0,681270 -1,437400
-2 2011Q3 0,000000 0,034073 -0,034073 -0,071890
-1 2011Q4           -1,666667 -0,091649 -1,575017 -3,323105
1 0,03407 0,07543 0,47396
0 2012Q1 Greece HICP 30 3 2012Q1 -0,409091 0,003214 -0,412305 -0,869915
1 2012Q2 4,000000 0,335806 3,664194 7,731028
2 2012Q3 0,800000 0,094419 0,705581 1,488694
3 2012Q4 -0,166667 0,021501 -0,188167 -0,397011
4 2013Q1 0,000000 0,034073 -0,034073 -0,071890
5 2013Q2 -0,266667 0,013957 -0,280624 -0,592084
6 2013Q3 1,272727 0,130079 1,142649 2,410857
7 2013Q4 -0,240000 0,015969 -0,255969 -0,540065
8 2014Q1 -0,421053 0,002311 -0,423364 -0,893249
9 2014Q2 -0,272727 0,013500 -0,286227 -0,603907
10 2014Q3           -1,500000 -0,079077 -1,420923 -2,997984

xlvii
 Table 20: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme initiation impact on HICP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2013Q1 0,100000 0,037858 0,062142 0,082143
-9 2013Q2 -0,173077 0,115078 -0,288155 -0,380902
-8 2013Q3 -0,279070 0,145050 -0,424120 -0,560629
-7 2013Q4 -0,064516 0,084379 -0,148896 -0,196820
-6 2014Q1 -0,241379 0,134392 -0,375772 -0,496719
-5 2014Q2 -0,409091 0,181817 -0,590908 -0,781100
-4 2014Q3 -0,230769 0,131392 -0,362161 -0,478728
-3 2014Q4 -0,700000 0,264080 -0,964080 -1,274382
-2 2015Q1 0,000000 0,066136 -0,066136 -0,087423
-1 2015Q2           -1,666667 0,537431 -2,204098 -2,913517
1 0,06614 -0,28278 0,75651
0 2015Q3 Greece HICP 30 3 2015Q3 -0,272727 0,143257 -0,415984 -0,549874
1 2015Q4 4,000000 -1,064974 5,064974 6,695205
2 2016Q1 0,800000 -0,160086 0,960086 1,269103
3 2016Q2 -0,166667 0,113265 -0,279932 -0,370032
4 2016Q3 0,000000 0,066136 -0,066136 -0,087423
5 2016Q4 -0,266667 0,141543 -0,408210 -0,539598
6 2017Q1 1,272727 -0,293763 1,566490 2,070686
7 2017Q2 -0,240000 0,134002 -0,374002 -0,494380
8 2017Q3 -0,421053 0,185200 -0,606253 -0,801383
9 2017Q4 -0,272727 0,143257 -0,415984 -0,549874
10 2018Q1           -1,500000 0,490302 -1,990302 -2,630908

xlviii
 Table 21: Event Study 3rd Economic Adjustment Programme termination impact on HICP

Estimation Pointer to end End of Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Even Country Country 5y Window of Estimation Estimation Variance d l
t t Date actual MAV Length Window Window Variance Variance
-
10 2016Q1 0,100000 -0,030367 0,130367 0,118128
-9 2016Q2 -0,173077 -0,125352 -0,047725 -0,043245
-8 2016Q3 -0,279070 -0,162219 -0,116850 -0,105880
-7 2016Q4 -0,064516 -0,087591 0,023075 0,020908
-6 2017Q1 -0,241379 -0,149109 -0,092270 -0,083607
-5 2017Q2 -0,409091 -0,207445 -0,201646 -0,182715
-4 2017Q3 -0,230769 -0,145419 -0,085350 -0,077337
-3 2017Q4 -0,700000 -0,308632 -0,391368 -0,354625
-2 2018Q1 0,000000 -0,065150 0,065150 0,059033
-1 2018Q2           -1,666667 -0,644869 -1,021797 -0,925867
1 -0,06515 0,34783 1,10361
0 2018Q3 Greece HICP 30 3 2018Q3 0,333333 0,050794 0,282539 0,256014
1 2018Q4 4,000000 1,326177 2,673823 2,422796
2 2019Q1 0,800000 0,213115 0,586885 0,531786
3 2019Q2 -0,166667 -0,123122 -0,043545 -0,039457
4 2019Q3 0,000000 -0,065150 0,065150 0,059033
5 2019Q4 -0,266667 -0,157905 -0,108762 -0,098551
6 2020Q1 1,272727 0,377545 0,895182 0,811140
7 2020Q2 -0,240000 -0,148630 -0,091370 -0,082792
8 2020Q3 -0,421053 -0,211605 -0,209447 -0,189784
9 2020Q4 -0,272727 -0,160013 -0,112714 -0,102132
10 0           -1,500000 -0,586898 -0,913102 -0,827377

xlix
 Table 22: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on UNEMP

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2011Q4 -0,025641 -0,022847 -0,002794 -0,110533
-9 2012Q1 0,098592 0,095740 0,002852 0,112832
-8 2012Q2 0,083333 0,081175 0,002159 0,085398
-7 2012Q3 0,094675 0,092001 0,002674 0,105789
-6 2012Q4 0,118919 0,115143 0,003776 0,149379
-5 2013Q1 0,077295 0,075411 0,001884 0,074541
-4 2013Q2 0,076233 0,074397 0,001836 0,072632
-3 2013Q3 0,058333 0,057311 0,001022 0,040449
-2 2013Q4 0,031496 0,031693 -0,000197 -0,007803
-1 2014Q1           0,034351 0,034419 -0,000067 -0,002670
0 2014Q2 Greece UNEMP 30 3 2014Q2 0,00163 0,95455 0,02528 -0,014652 -0,012358 -0,002294 -0,090775
1 2014Q3 0,003636 0,005100 -0,001463 -0,057894
2 2014Q4 0,000000 0,001629 -0,001629 -0,064432
3 2015Q1 -0,010870 -0,008747 -0,002123 -0,083975
4 2015Q2 -0,014652 -0,012358 -0,002294 -0,090775
5 2015Q3 -0,026022 -0,023211 -0,002811 -0,111218
6 2015Q4 -0,007634 -0,005658 -0,001975 -0,078156
7 2016Q1 -0,007692 -0,005714 -0,001978 -0,078262
8 2016Q2 -0,034884 -0,031670 -0,003214 -0,127151
9 2016Q3 -0,008032 -0,006039 -0,001994 -0,078873
10 2016Q4           -0,016194 -0,013830 -0,002365 -0,093548

l
 Table 23: Event Study Initiation of ECB purchasing Greek banks bonds impact on HICP

Estimation Pointer to end of End of Estimation Alpha Beta STEYX Actual Estimate Abnorma t-values
Country Country 5y Window Estimation Window Variance d l
t Date actual MAV Length Window Variance Variance
-10 2011Q4 0,100000 0,039362 0,060638 0,079128
-9 2012Q1 -0,173077 0,123211 -0,296288 -0,386637
-8 2012Q2 -0,279070 0,155757 -0,434827 -0,567421
-7 2012Q3 -0,064516 0,089877 -0,154394 -0,201474
-6 2012Q4 -0,241379 0,144184 -0,385563 -0,503135
-5 2013Q1 -0,409091 0,195680 -0,604771 -0,789188
-4 2013Q2 -0,230769 0,140926 -0,371695 -0,485038
-3 2013Q3 -0,700000 0,285005 -0,985005 -1,285368
-2 2013Q4 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
-1 2014Q1           -1,666667 0,581823 -2,248489 -2,934135
0 2014Q2 Greece HICP 30 3 2014Q2 0,07007 -0,30705 0,76632 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
1 2014Q3 4,000000 -1,158145 5,158145 6,731049
2 2014Q4 0,800000 -0,175575 0,975575 1,273063
3 2015Q1 -0,166667 0,121243 -0,287910 -0,375704
4 2015Q2 0,000000 0,070068 -0,070068 -0,091434
5 2015Q3 -0,266667 0,151948 -0,418615 -0,546266
6 2015Q4 1,272727 -0,320727 1,593455 2,079356
7 2016Q1 -0,240000 0,143760 -0,383760 -0,500783
8 2016Q2 -0,421053 0,199353 -0,620406 -0,809590
9 2016Q3 -0,272727 0,153809 -0,426537 -0,556603
10 2016Q4           -1,500000 0,530647 -2,030647 -2,649865

li