Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

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Engineering Failure Analysis

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/engfailanal

Uncertain time-dependent reliability analysis of corroded RC

T
structures applying three-term conjugate method
Mansour Bagheria, Seyed Abbas Hosseinib, Behrooz Keshtegarc,d, ,
⁎

José A.F.O. Correiae, Nguyen-Thoi Trungc,d

a
Department of Civil Engineering, Birjand University of Technology, Birjand, Iran
b
Faculty of Technology and Mining, Yasouj University, Choram, Iran
c
Division of Computational Mathematics and Engineering, Institute for Computational Science, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
d
Faculty of Civil Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam
e
Faculty of Engineering & CONSTRUCT, University of Porto, 4200-465 Porto, Portugal

ARTICLE INFO ABSTRACT

Keywords: Evaluation of reinforced concrete (RC) structures which are subjected to the damaging environmental
Reinforced concrete structures factors during the service life is critical. The service life model, the effects of environmental factors with
Chloride-induced corrosion their extent of damage during the service period of the structure could be predicted. Various un-
Epistemic uncertainty certainties that came with this assessment confidence in the results should be taken by a safe margin.
Hybrid optimization method
Structural reliability methods are one of the best tools to calculate the life model that considers the
Three-term conjugate reliability method
random properties of parameters. However, if the epistemic and inherent uncertainty of parameters
with their time-dependent changes considered, the life model is more reliable. The reinforcement
corrosion is the most damaging mechanism that causes the premature degradation of RC structures and
substantial economic losses each year. In this work, the time-dependent reliability of an RC beam with
chloride-induced corrosion considering epistemic uncertainty via an efficient numerical procedure is
developed. Fuzzy time-dependent reliability index has been calculated using -cut approach based on a
hybrid version of genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO), namely HGAPSO
applying three-term conjugate reliability method. Results showed that the proposed numerical ap-
proach could efficiently and robustly estimate the fuzzy time-dependent reliability index.

1. Introduction

The boundaries of the limit state functions (LSFs) considered by the design codes may change over the service life; aggressive en-
vironmental conditions, aging, and random shock loads are the most important factors that change the design defaults and LSFs [1,2].
Reinforcement corrosion due to the aggressive environmental conditions like carbonation and chloride ion ingress affects the performance of
RC structures. Premature failure of RC structures due to the reinforcement corrosion has been considered as one of the most important
durability issues in aggressive environments [3,4]. De-icing salts, seawater, and airborne salts are known as the main reasons for exposure to
chloride ion [5,6]. While the chloride ion concentration on the surface of the reinforcement reaches a critical value, the corrosion of the
reinforcements begins [7]. As the corrosion begins, the net area section of the reinforcements is reduced, and the subsequent destructive
effects occur. Cover cracking, reducing the area section of the concrete, and reducing the bond between the concrete and the reinforcement

⁎
Corresponding author at: Division of Computational Mathematics and Engineering, Institute for Computational Science, Faculty of Civil
Engineering, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
E-mail address: beh.keshtegar@tdtu.edu.vn (B. Keshtegar).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104599
Received 17 March 2020; Received in revised form 12 May 2020; Accepted 22 May 2020
Available online 27 May 2020
1350-6307/ © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

are the most important results of corrosion of the reinforcement, which affect the structural strength and durability [8]. Different parameters
are effective on the intensity and type of reinforcement corrosion and their assessment over time that have many uncertainties. Therefore, the
model of estimating the strength and service life of RC structures has both epistemic and inherent uncertainties. Many kinds of research have
been done on the effect of reinforcement corrosion on the bending and shear strength of RC beams, which generally include the inherent
uncertainties of the parameters [9–12]. Bhargava et al. [13] presented probability distribution functions (PDF) of bending and shear strength
for the corrosion propagation period under different scenarios and reported that the uncertainty in the amount of resistance is only affected
by the corrosion current uncertainty at late stages of degradation. Costa et al. [14] reported that the degree of importance of effective
parameters changes over time during the expansion of corrosion. Considering the inherent randomness in corrosion process and using the
First Order Reliability Method (FORM) and Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) methods, Leonel reported that the life model of an RC structure is
strongly influenced by the effective corrosion parameters [15]. Lu et al. [16] proposed an approach to estimate the time-dependent reliability
of structures with multi-dimensional, complicated, and implicit limit-state functions. In their method, the Gauss-Legendre quadrature is
employed to approximate the time-dependent integral in the time domain.
Some uncertainties do not change over time, but others that are known as stochastic processes change by the time [17]. Hosseini
et al. [18] have reported time-dependent changes in the flexural strength uncertainty, especially in periods of concrete cover spalling
due to reinforcement corrosion. Although properties of concrete, such as modulus of elasticity and compressive strength, are con-
sidered as random variables, their random properties can change when these properties are affected by environmental factors.
Environmental factors such as surface chloride concentration, temperature, and humidity, which strongly influence the onset of
corrosion, are also highly time-dependent. Yang et al. [19] presented time-dependent LSF based on the corrosion initiation phase for
RC structures exposed to chloride ion. Zhang et al. [20] reported that the mean and the coefficient of variation of the affecting
variables on the probability of corrosion-related failure affect the RC structures, life model.
Generally, considering epistemic uncertainty in the reliability analysis of corroded RC structures during the lifetime, a fuzzy time-
dependent reliability analysis model (FTDR) must be applied. FTDR provides a fuzzy reliability index at a certain time instead of a crisp
reliability index. When reliability analysis of existing buildings is intended, insufficient information, e.g., environmental conditions, me-
chanical properties exist with enough accuracy. Hu et al. [21] proposed a single-loop Kriging surrogate model to examine the time-dependent
failure probability under the consideration of the fuzzy concept. Based on the FTDR model, a fuzzy safety margin and an efficient numerical
procedure were presented. Bagheri et al. [22] proposed a generalized procedure using alpha cut set optimization-based GA and FORM, and
the fuzzy structural time-dependent reliability index was developed. Due to the huge computational burden of fuzzy time-dependent re-
liability analysis, in this paper, a hybrid version of GA and PSO, namely HGAPSO, is conducted via -cut approach.
The efficient and robust iterative first-order reliability formula as a local computational level are more significant issues to
evaluate the fuzzy reliability index. The modified versions using a conjugate formulation of FORM have provided acceptable con-
vergence performances to compute the reliability index [23–29]. The relaxed conjugate method was applied to consider the epistemic
uncertainties that this method was presented the robust and efficient results compared to the iterative formulas captured with
steepest descent sensitivity vector [30,31]. Recently, Keshtegar and Zhu [26] developed a formulation of conjugate FORM with three
terms, which was has provided efficient and robust results. Consequently, it is more important to use a local computational level with
robust and efficient that it can consider by using the conjugate FORM. Therefore, three-term conjugate FORM is used to control the
high computational burden with robust results of fuzzy reliability analysis for the time-dependent reliability of RC structures.

2. Reinforcement corrosion

Reinforcement corrosion in RC structures, especially in bridge girders, reduces flexural and shear strengths and jeopardizes the
safe performance of these types of structures. Water to binder ratio (w/b), concrete quality, chloride diffusion coefficient, concrete
cover thickness, and environmental conditions are the most critical parameters that influence the chloride ion ingress and corrosion
initiation of reinforcement [32,33]. If the surface of the RC structure is exposed to chloride ions, due to the higher concentration of
chloride ion on the outer surface of the concrete, chloride ions ingress into the concrete through the diffusion mechanism [34]. While
the focus of chloride ion on the reinforcement surface reaches the critical value due to the destruction of the rebar's protective alkali
layer, the rebar is corroded [35]. Accordingly, the corrosion initiation time (Ti) is calculated based on Fick's second law using Eq. (1):
2
c2 1 Cs Ccr
Ti = erf
4Dc 0 Cs C0 (1)

where c is the clear concrete cover, Dc0 is the chloride diffusion coefficient of concrete, Cs, C0, and Ccr are surface chloride con-
centration, initial and critical chloride concentration, respectively. Among these parameters, Dc0 and Cs are considered time-de-
pendent in some cases. The Cs is almost low at the initial stage of life of structures then increases to a constant value based on the
environmental conditions. Despite time-dependent changes of Dc0, it has been considered to be consistent in many life models. The
service life of concrete structures that are subjected to reinforcement corrosion generally could be divided into two main parts; first or
initiation period and propagation period. After the reinforcement corrosion begins, the propagation period of the corrosion starts, and
during this period, the durability and strength of the RC structure are affected by corrosion. The corrosion current density, icorr, is
usually used to evaluate the corrosion rate in the reinforcement due to the potential difference between the concrete and the re-
inforcement [36]. The amount of reinforcement cross-sectional reduction during the corrosion propagation period is strongly de-
pendent on the corrosion current density. Several equations based on the corrosion current density have been proposed to estimate
the cross-sectional reinforcement reduction during the propagation of corrosion [37–39]. Based on field observations, the corrosion

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Fig. 1. Chloride induced uniform corrosion.

of reinforcement caused by chloride ingress can be divided into uniform and non-uniform (pitting) corrosion. In between, for site
conditions, uniform corrosion is more frequent. In real terms, despite laboratory conditions because of the presence of surface cracks,
the anodic sites may be spread out over a wide area of reinforcement; therefore, uniform corrosion takes place. Fig. 1 shows a kind of
uniform corrosion due to the chloride ion ingress in the RC column section in a coastal zone near the sea. The pitting corrosion due to
chloride ingress is localized corrosion that concentrates on small areas of steel reinforcement. This type of corrosion causing spalling
of the concrete cover [40]. Cracking, peeling of the cover concrete, and bond reduction between reinforcement and concrete are the
detrimental effects of reinforcement corrosion, which affect the mechanical properties of RC structures [41–44].

3. Fundamentals of fuzzy analysis

3.1. Basics of fuzzy analysis

Generally, a fuzzy set X is an uncertain boundary set that could be expressed via its membership function µ (.) which assigns
membership degree to the elements of X by [0, 1] interval, i.e. µA (x ): X [0, 1]. In engineering applications, to apply mathematical
operators to fuzzy sets, -cut approach [45–48] must be implemented.
According to Eq. (2), -cut set A i ; (i = 0, ...,1) , is a crisp set that membership degree of its elements is higher than i [33].
Moreover, in related engineering problems, if the same -cuts of fuzzy sets are formed the crisp subspace X would be obtained [49].
A i = {x X ; µA (x ) i} (2)

4. Hybrid GA-PSO (HGAPSO)

The optimization process within this work has been accomplished using a hybrid version of GA and PSO. In this section, an
overview of these optimization approaches is summarized.

4.1. Genetic algorithm (GA)

GA is a heuristic optimization method based on natural selection and genetic rules. GA framework is based on logical operators
[50], e.g., selection, crossover, mutation, and fitness. Readers are referred to as Ref. [51] for a review of GA operators. In GA, each
particle is known by a string called a chromosome. However, chromosomes are produced by some genes. The fitness of particles
depends on the value of the target function. GA starts the optimization process by randomly providing the initial population. The
selection operator aims to find fitter parents for the reproduction of children for the crossover operator. The leading GA operator in
making the new generation is crossover. Crossover randomly selects two chromosomes and creates two new ones that the frequency is
controlled by crossover probability (Pc ) [52–54] that in this work it was adjusted as Pc = 0.8.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

The mutation operator randomly changes a part of a gene. Mutation ensures the initial population dispersal, so the search
probability particles (Pm ) in the feasible region never becomes zero [52]. In this study, Pm varies in the range of [0.01, 0.1].
GA has shown excellent performance in applying to numerous applications from different fields of science [55]. However,
sometimes GA convergence is a bit time-consuming. Thus, to meet this drawback, improved versions of GA are coupled with other
optimization approaches [56–59].

4.2. Particle swarm optimization (PSO)

PSO is an optimization approach that could find a single point or surface optimums in an n-dimensional feasible region. In which, a series
of particles with initial velocities are randomly created. In PSO, velocity and position of particles are assigned by Eqs. (3) and (4):

vi (t ) = vi (t 1) + r1 1 ( x Pi x i (t 1)) + r2 2 ( xG x i (t 1)) (3)

x i ( t ) = x i (t 1) + vi (t ) (4)
where, and 1, 2 are the inertia, personal and global coefficients, respectively. 1 and 2 are selected randomly in the range of [0, 1] to
certify the stability of the solution [60,61].
x i (t ) , vi (t ) and t respectively are the velocity vector, position vector, and the iteration counter of the i-th particle. In Eq. (3) x Pi
represents the best position of the i-th particle's direction vector. Whereas, xG is all the particle's best direction towards the global
optimum.
In PSO, acceptable solutions of the particles are saved. In contrast to GA that previous data of the problem is wasted during the
generation reproductions. One of the main drawbacks of PSO is the problem of premature convergence that is caused due to the fast
rate of information flow between particles, so the possibility of being trapped in local optima instead of global ones may increase.
Therefore, to meet this challenge, some strategies should be considered to improve performance PSO.

4.3. Hybrid GA-PSO (HGAPSO)

The HGAPSO algorithm, at the same time, has the advantages of the PSO swarm intelligence and the GA natural selection mechanism.
Hence, hybridization leads to a high diversity and low computational cost [62,63]. In this work, the HGAPSO is proposed by combining the
mutation operator of GA into PSO and developing the mutating space along the entire feasible region, i.e., crisp subspace. The approach
adopted imports diversity into the swarm and prevented the swarm of premature convergence. Moreover, the available domain would be
searched for entirely. So, the HGAPSO makes a balance between global and local searching process and results in robust convergence. The
search process begins with the random selection of particles and movement of the swarm inside the crisp subspace.
In the proposed approach, the mutation operator is formulated as Eq. (5):

x i (t ) = x i (t ) (5)
where, is randomly generated coefficient within the [0, 0.15X ] interval, that represents 0.15 times the length of the crisp subspace
and x i (t ) is the mutated position of the particle.
However, since the crisp subspace is kept unchanged during the search process, varies along the search direction according to
Eq. (6):
iter
=a × (a b)
max _iter (6)
where a and b are the interval range of the crisp subspace, max_iter is the maximum number of iteration, and iter is the current
number of repetitions.
Using HGAPSO, the activity of the particles increases, and the movement of particles in the search space is facilitated compared
with the crude PSO.

5. Three-term conjugate finite-step length (TCFS)

The conceptual idea of the FORM is to find the most probable point (MPP), i.e. U , to approximate structural reliability index as
= U where represents reliability index and is the normal standard cumulative distribution function. Generally, there are
three steps in FORM to determine the reliability index, which could be summarized as following [64,65]:
Step 1: Transfer random variables from the original space (X-space) into the standard normal space (U-space)
Step 2: Find the MPP (U = (u1 , u2 , ...un )T ) which is formulated using the TCFS method by following iterative formula:
T g (U ) U
k k g (Uk )
Uk + 1 = T g (U ) k
k k
T g (U ) U g (U )
k k k
=
k T g (U )
k k (7)
where g (Uk ) and g (Uk ) are the gradient vector and performance value at a point Uk , respectively. k is normalized search direction
vector which is computed using three-term conjugate search direction as below:

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Uk + dk
k =
Uk + dk (8)
where λ represents finite-step length as λ ≥ 0 and dk denotes conjugate vector at the point Uk.
Step 3: Determine the reliability index as = U
In the conjugate FORM, the efficiency and robustness are related to the discrete conjugate map as Uk + dk by computing two
main parameters of and dk . In the TCFS, the conjugate vector is adjusted based on three terms to salsify sufficient descent condition
[26,31]. Therefore in TCFS, the conjugate vector is given as below:
dk = g (Uk ) + k dk 1 + k g (Uk 1) (9)
where, k and k represent the conjugate adjusted factors which are computed as follows:

|| g (Uk )||2 || g (Uk )||2

k = min 0.9 ,
g (Uk 1) 2 dk 1 2 (10)

|| g (Uk )||2
k =
g (Uk 1) 2 (11)
Fig. 2 shows a cycle of iteration for the TCFS method and schematically depicts the LSF at three consecutive points ( g (Uk 1) , g (Uk )
and g (Uk + 1) ), the conjugate vector (dk ), and the normalized conjugate search direction ( k ). In TCFS, a new point Uk + 1 is tended on
the point Uk when the LSFs are performed highly concave at point Uk . Thus, the instability of the FORM formula is controlled. On the
other hand, the vector k is not paralleled to previous normalized search direction vectors. Thus it has provided table results using the
TCFS method.
Accordingly, the TCFS for time-dependent fuzzy reliability analysis of corroded RC structures could be listed according to the
following steps:

Step 0 i) Define the LSF, g (U ) = 0 ,

ii) Set k = 0 , X0 = µ , d0 = 0 , and 0 =0
iii) Choose step length = 100 and stopping criterion = 10 4

Step 1 Transfer random variables form X-space into U-space

Step 2 i) Compute the gradient vector at point Uk
ii) Compute the conjugate scalar factors as k = g (Uk ) 2 g (Uk 1)
2 (12)
k = min{0.9 g (Uk ) 2 g (Uk 1) 2 , g (Uk ) 2 dk 1
2} (13)
iii) Determine the conjugate as:
dk = g (Uk ) + k dk 1 + k g (Uk 1) (14)
iv) obtain k
v) Compute k as:
T g (U ) U
k k g (Uk )
k = T g (U ) (15)
k k
vi) update new point as below:
Uk + 1 = k k (16)
Step 3 Check Uk Uk 1
i) If Yes, k = k + 1 and Go to Step 1
ii) if No, converge and give k

Fig. 2. Schematically iterations for proposed TCFS.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Fig. 3. Optimums for of 2-D crisp subspace.

6. Proposed FTDR based -cut approach

According to the -cut approach [66], in order to attain the desired fuzzy structural output, the smallest and largest member of A i
interval should be determined, as shown in Fig. 3. Hence, determination of the interval boundaries requires solving two simultaneous
optimization problems according to Eq. (17):

Max Min : G = M (x i )|x i X

i = 1, ...,n (17)
where n is the number of variables. In this paper, these points are inputs of the TCFS reliability algorithm to obtain a reliability index
interval, which forms the membership function of the fuzzy reliability interval. In the case of m evenly divided segments in each -cut
of fuzzy random variables, a total number of (m + 1) n LSF reliability evaluations are required. However, as shown in Fig. 3, actually
entire the crisp subspace, two optimums should be determined in order to specify the fuzzy reliability index interval. Hence, Eq. (17)
must be converted to the search for x1opt and x 2opt , in the case of a 2-D crisp subspace. Applications of various heuristics to determine
optimums in structural engineering applications could be found in Refs. [67–73].
In this work, in order to handle the statistical ambiguity of random variables in time-dependent reliability analysis, proposed
numerical FTDR analysis is developed via three-term analyzer loops that perform, fuzzy analysis, reliability analysis, and time-
dependent reliability analysis respectively. In the fuzzy analysis step, the -cut approach using HGAPSO is applied to construct a
fuzzy reliability index membership function. Whereas in the reliability analysis step, the TCFS reliability method is implemented to
determine reliability index of fuzzy level outcomes efficiently. Finally, the time-dependent reliability analysis level is applied to
assemble the results in the service life of the structure. The formwork of the time-depended fuzzy reliability method is presented in
Fig. 4.

7. Numerical application

The abilities of TCFS are validated based on two engineering problems in the first stage. The TCFS is compared with four
reliability methods as HL-RF, stability transformation method (STM) with = 0.1 and C = I, finite step length method (FSL) with
λ = 100 and c = 1.4, and chaotic conjugate chaos control (CCC).
Example 1. A disc brake system presented in Fig. 5 is considered by the following response surface function that statistical properties of
random variables are reported in Table 1.
g = 0.046287 + 0.20458µ 0.059821p 0.00036549 h1 0.010037h2
+ 0.013836h3 + 0.24308µp 0.0037884µh1 + 0.0023358µh2
0.016981µh3 + 0.029287ph1 0.015872ph2 0.0028333ph3
+ 0.0007175h1 h2 0.00046158h1 h3 0.00036486h2 h3 0.39076µ2
0.015986p2 0.0011936h12 + 0.000269h22 + 0.00062638h32 0.01 (18)
The converged results for different FORM methods are tabulated in Table 2. It can be concluded that the unstable results are
captured by HL-RF, while other FORM formulas are converged. The faster convergence rate is obtained by TCFS compared to other
methods. The applied TCFS formulation is significantly more efficient than CCC, STM, and FSL.
Example 2. A steel frame presented in Fig. 6 is considered, and statistical properties are listed in Table 3. The horizontal displacement of the
frame could be expressed as Eq. (19).
g = 0.05 (19)
The reliability results of FORM variants are reported in Table 4. Survey results indicate that the STM and HL-RF methods produce
a chaotic solution, while CCC and TCFS using conjugate sensitivity vector converge, robustly. The FSL is as robust as the TCFS,
whereas inefficient. The TCFS is significantly more efficient than CCC and FSL methods.
As seen, the method performs more efficiently compared to other reliability methods of CCC, FSL, STM, and HL-RF. Therefore, it
may use to evaluate the fuzzy reliability analysis of a practical application of simply supported RC beam under the chloride-induced
corrosion as shown in Fig. 7.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Fig. 4. The framework of proposed FTDR.

Fig. 5. The disc brake example.

Table 1
Statistical properties of random variables of example 1.
Random variable h1 (mm) h2 (mm) h3 (mm) µ p (MPa)

Mean 15 20 10 0.4 0.5

CoV 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.35 0.25
Distribution Gumbel Gumbel Gumbel Normal Lognormal
Description Friction thickness Disc thickness Backplate thickness Friction coefficient Brake pressure

The moment resistance of the rectangular beam section is considered as a time-dependent LSF, according to Eq. (20):

G (t ) = Mn (t ) Ms (t ) (20)

where Mn is the moment resistance of the beam section, and Ms is the moment due to the dead and live loads. The nominal flexural
strength of the considered beam section, shown in Fig. 6. (a), is calculated based on ACI308-14 as follows [74]:

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Table 2
Reliability results of example 1.
Methods Pf β Call function Iterations

HL-RF Priodic-2 as β =(1.7112,1.9448)

STM 0.0160 2.1444 4224 352
FSL 0.0160 2.1444 768 64
CCC 0.01560 2.1445 781 71
TCFS 0.0122 2.2514 176 16

Fig. 6. The steel frame of example 2.

Table 3
Statistical properties of random variables of example 2.
Random variable Mean Standard deviation Distribution Description

A1 (m2) 91 × 10-4 9.1 × 10-4 Lognormal Cross-sectional area

I1(m4) 80.9 × 10-6 8.09 × 10-6 Lognormal Moment of inertia
A2 (m2) 53.8 × 10-4 5.38 × 10-4 Lognormal Cross-sectional area
I2 (m4) 83.6 × 10-6 8.36 × 10-6 Lognormal Moment of inertia
A3 (m2) 106 × 10-4 10.6 × 10-4 Lognormal Cross-sectional area
I3 (m4) 112.6 × 10-6 11.26 × 10-6 Lognormal Moment of inertia
E1(kg/m2) 2.38 × 1010 1.9 × 109 Normal Module of elasticity
E2 (kg/m2) 2.17 × 1010 1.74 × 109 Normal Module of elasticity
L (m) 6 0.48 Normal Length of frame
H (m) 4.5 0.36 Normal Height of frame
W (kg/m) 4500 630 Gumbel Distributed load
P (kg) 2000 350 Gumbel Lateral load

Table 4
Reliability results of example 2.
Method Pf β Call function Iteration

HL-RF Chaotic solutions

STM Chaotic solutions
FSL 0.001086 3.1682 6152 75
CCC 0.000766 3.1684 5833 71
TCFS 0.000809 3.1526 2902 35

Fig. 7. Simple RC beam.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Ast f y Asc
Mn = f y (Ast Asc ) d + Asc fy (d d)
1.7fc b (21)

where, fy is the reinforcement yield strength, fc is the concrete compressive strength, b is beam width, d and d' are effective depth to
tensile and compressive reinforcement, Ast and Asc are the cross-sectional areas of tensile and compressive reinforcement.
The considered beam is designed based on the initial reliability index of β = 3.5. This value was chosen to satisfy the re-
commendations of the ISO 2394 standard when the consequences of structural failure and the relative costs of safety measures are
moderate [75]. As the beam section reaches its ultimate flexural strength, both compressive and tensile reinforcements reach their
yielding strength. The life span of the beam is divided into two periods, one before the reinforcement corrosion begins and the other
during the corrosion propagation period. After the reinforcement corrosion begins, the propagation period of the corrosion begins,
and during this period, the flexural strength of the beam decreases. The amount of rebar cross-sectional reduction depends on
corrosion current density icorr, and one of the most critical relationships for estimating the cross-section reduction during the pro-
pagation of corrosion has been proposed by Vu and Stewart as Eq. (22) [38]:
As (t ) = n [D0 0.282icorr (t )0.7]2 4 (22)

where, As(t) is the cross-sectional reinforcement area at time t, D0 is the initial reinforcement diameter, icorr is the corrosion rate at the
start of corrosion propagation, and n is the number of reinforcement. As the corrosion process begins, the cross-section of the tensile
and compressive reinforcement decreases. By inserting Eq. (22) into Eq. (21) for compressive and tensile reinforcement, the time-
dependent nominal flexural strength is calculated as Eq. (23) until the bond decrease and the concrete scaling phenomenon occur.

Mn (t ) = ((X20 [X17 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1)×
(X20 [X17 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1
X3 1.7X2 X5
+

(X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X3 X4) (23)

where X1, …, X18 are the valid variables in the problem whose random properties are shown in Table 5. The environmental conditions
like the average values of Cs are selected based on local assessments made on coastal structures in Bushehr region in Iran. As shown in
Fig. 8 (b), during the corrosion propagation, the spalling of concrete cover occur, and the effective depth of tensile reinforcement
reduced to (d-c). On the sides, the diameter of the stirrups is small, and the distance between them is considerable; the probability of
scaling at the edge is much less than the top and bottom of the section. Therefore, Eq. (23) is updated to Eq. (24) based on this
reduction in the concrete section during analysis.

Mn (t ) = ((X20 [X17 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1)×
(X20 [X17 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1
X3 X10 1.7X2 X5
+
(X19 [X18 0.282X15 (t X16 )0.7]2 4) X1 (X3 X4) (21)

In order to handle statistical ambiguity in reliability analysis during the service life of the corroded beam, the FTDR method has
been developed in this work. Properties of considered fuzzy random variables are reported in Table 6.
Fig. 7 depicts the instantaneous process of time-dependent reliability index resulted from the implementation of the proposed
FTDR method applying HGAPSO-TCFS for the considered condition for the studied beam. In this example, the time-dependent

Table 5
Statistical properties of random variables of corroded RC beam.
Variable Description Mean CoV Distribution

X1 Reinforcement Yield strength, (fy, MPa) 400 0.1 Log-Normal

X2 Concrete compressive strength, (fc, MPa) 30 0.15 Normal
X3 Effective depth to tensile reinforcement, (d, mm) 500 0.1 Normal
X4 Effective depth to compressive reinforcement, (ds', mm) 65 0.15 Normal
X5 Beam width, (b, mm) 350 0.05 Normal
X6 Beam length, (l, m) 4 0.05 Normal
X8 Dead load, (DL, N/mm) 125 0.07 Normal
X9 Live load, (LL, N/mm) 60 0.5 Normal
X10 Clear cover, (c, mm) 0.45 0.15 Normal
X11 Diffusion coefficient of chloride ions (D, m2/year) 94 × 10-6 0.35 Log-Normal
X12 Critical concentration of chloride ions, (Ccr, kg/m3) 1.0 0.15 Log-Normal
X13 Surface chloride concentration, (Cs, kg/m3) 5.0 0.3 Log-Normal
X14 Initial chloride concentration in concrete, (C0, kg/m3) 0.1 0.15 Log-Normal
X15 Corrosion current density, (i, μA/cm2) 2 0.1 Normal
X16 Corrosion initiation time, (Ti, Year) 7.0 0.40 Log-Normal
X17 Initial diameter of tensile reinforcement, (Ds, mm) 32 0.02 Log-Normal
X18 Initial diameter of compressive reinforcement, (Ds', mm) 20 0.02 Log-Normal
X19 Number of compressive reinforcement, (ns') 3 – –
X20 Number of tensile reinforcement, (ns) 6 – –

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Fig. 8. Schematic of RC beam section: (a) before spalling of clear cover and (b) after spalling.

Table 6
Statistical properties of fuzzy random variables.
FRV Mean Standard deviation Distribution

fy͂ (MPa) < 360,400,440 > < 36.8,40,43.2 > Log-Normal

fc͂ (MPa) < 27,30,33 > < 4.14,4.5,4.86 > Normal
d͂ (mm) < 450,500,550 > < 46,50,54 > Normal

Fig. 9. Reliability index of TCFS reliability method.

Fig. 10. Fuzzy reliability index of corroded RC beam.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

Fig. 11. Uncertainty interval of fuzzy time-dependent reliability index.

Fig. 12. 3-D process of fuzzy time-dependent reliability index.

reliability of the RC beam during the propagation period, which began as the reinforcement corrosion started, has been evaluated. As
shown in Fig. 9, the reliability index decreases from 3.5 to 1.046 during 60 years of corrosion propagation due to the deterioration of
resistance.
Fuzzy reliability index membership function at the time T = [0, 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60] years for five cut sets αi = [ 0, 0.2, 0.4,
0.6, 0.8, 1] are also plotted in Fig. 10. Also, bound uncertainty variation and 3-D process of fuzzy reliability index during the service
life are depicted in Figs. 10 and 11, respectively.
As shown in Fig. 10, the reliability index has decreased during the service life of the corroded beam, also, as shown in Fig. 11,
uncertainty bound for fuzzy reliability index has become narrower by the increasing lifespan of the beam. It can be concluded that at
the age of T = 0 and T = 60, the highest and the lowest sensitivity due to the statistical ambiguity of random variables, respectively,
exist. The numerical value of the fuzzy reliability index, for i = 1 in Fig. 12 is precisely the same as the TCFS reliability method of
Fig. 9 that implies the accuracy of the proposed FTDR approach. In other words, the FTDR will perform the same as conventional
reliability methods as the reliability index is determined for all random variables via membership degree equal to 1.

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M. Bagheri, et al. Engineering Failure Analysis 115 (2020) 104599

8. Concluding remarks

Fuzzy time-dependent reliability analysis for a corroded RC beam was taken into consideration to handle the epistemic un-
certainty of random variables. An efficient numerical approach based on hybrid GA and PSO optimization algorithms was adopted for
fuzzy analysis, whereas a three-term conjugate finite-step length method was applied for reliability analysis. The time-variant cor-
roded RC beam is simulated based on the normal and non-normal basic random variables coupled with three fuzzy variables of
reinforcement yield strength, concrete compressive strength, and effective depth. Survey results showed that the fuzzy reliability
index value has dropped during the service life of the beam. By increasing the lifetimes, the reliable conditions of the RC beam are
decreased, which are significantly reduced for a lifetime of more than 10 years. The intervals of reliability index are obtained with no-
logical patterns for different times. It means that the epistemic uncertainties of this problem showed nonlinear relations concerning
the time domain. Consequently, the fuzzy reliability analysis is a helpful tool to evaluate the safety levels of time-dependent corroded
RC beams.

Declaration of Competing Interest

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to
influence the work reported in this paper.

Appendix A. Supplementary material

Supplementary data to this article can be found online at https://doi.org/10.1016/j.engfailanal.2020.104599.

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