Introduction to Decision Analysis

Ade Febransyah
afebran@pmbs.ac.id
 Ade Febransyah, Ph.D.
Associate Professor
School of Business and Economics
Universitas Prasetiya Mulya
E-mail: afebran@pmbs.ac.id

Ade Febransyah is a faculty member at the School of Business and Economics, Universitas Prasetiya Mulya. He did a Ph.D. at
North Carolina State University (1997-2001); an M.S. at Oklahoma State University (1992-94); and a B.S. at Institut Teknologi
Bandung (1983-88).

He is currently the Advisor for Operations and Decisions at the school. Previously, he was the Associate Dean for Research and
Cooperation. At Prasetiya Mulya, Dr. Febransyah is the principal researcher initiating and conducting researches on innovation
diagnostics, product decisions, and supply network design.

His scholarly works have been published on peer-reviewed accredited journals and conference proceedings. Dr. Febransyah is also
a regular columnist for top-notched magazines and newspapers in the country such as the Jakarta Post, Kata Data, SWA, Warta
Ekonomi, Kompas, Kontan, Koran Tempo. He published books : ‘Menikmati Ketidakpastian: Tahapan Kritis dalam Mendesain
Kesuksesan’ (Gramedia Pustaka Utama, 2009) , the editorial books ‘Prasetiya Mulya on Innovation’ (Prasetiya Mulya Publishing,
2010) and '50 Business Essential Ways to Win Competition’ (Prasetiya Mulya Publishing, 2014) , ‘50|50: Belajar Inovasi untuk
Menang’ (Kepustakan Populer Gramedia, 2016), and ‘Horizon Inovasi: Prinsip-prinsip utama perusahaan untuk tangguh bersaing
dan berkelanjutan’ (Prasetiya Mulya Publishing, 2017).

In addition to his academic credentials, Dr. Febransyah has also spent many hours on training and consulting services to
prominent companies including Pertamina, Bank Mandiri, Telkom Indonesia, BCA, BNI, Pertamina Lubricants, Kalbe Group,
Triputra Group, Bank Syariah Mandiri, Kelompok Kompas Gramedia, Tempo Group, Sinarmas, and many more.
 Why (business) Decision Analysis

• Help us make a better business decision that

makes companies stay competitive in a
dynamically-changing environment
DECISION MAKING UNDER
CERTAINTY
Designing supply network
Linear Programming
DECISION MAKING UNDER
UNCERTAINTY
Innovate or Die (?)
success
Reward = +++

innovate

failure
Reward = - - -

Don’t
Reward = 0
innovate
 Expected Value (EV)

n
EV ( Ai )   P(S j Ai ) Rij
j 1

EV(Ai) : expected value dari alternatif ke Ai, dengan i = 1,…, m

P(Sj|Ai) : probabilitas terjadinya peristiwa Sj setelah alternatif Ai
dipilih, dengan j = 1, …, n
Rij : reward atau payoff yang diperoleh dari keputusan Ai yang
diikuti oleh peristiwa Sj
QUEUEING
 A Basic Queueing System
Served Customers

Queueing System

Queue
C S
Customers CCCCCCC C S Service
C S facility
C S

Served Customers
Defining the Measures of Performance
L = Expected number of customers in the system,
including those being served (the symbol L
comes from Line Length).
Lq = Expected number of customers in the queue,
which excludes customers being served.
W= Expected waiting time in the system (including
service time) for an individual customer (the
symbol W comes from Waiting time).
Wq = Expected waiting time in the queue (excludes
service time) for an individual customer.
COMPUTER SIMULATION
Uncertainties in innovation project
MULTI CRITERIA DECISION MAKING
 Multi Criteria Decision Making

• Key problems in business, engineering and

sciences can be formulated in terms of:

1. A set of known alternatives and

2. A set of known criteria

What if alternatives or criteria are unknown?

Weighted-Score/Sum Method

Criteria Weight (%) A1 A2  Aj

C1 w1 a11 a12 a1j
C2 w2 a21 a22 a2j

Ci wi ai1 ai2 aij

Total weighted-score w1a11 + w2a21 w1a12 + w2a22 w1a1j + w2a2j
+ ….. + wiai1 + ….. + wiai2 + ….. + wiaij

Select the alternative with the highest total weighted-score

THANK YOU