The economic and political incentives that have prompted countries in

particular region to seek trade agreements, as well as the growth of

partnership diversity, have been extensively explored. The desire of
countries to reduce trade diversion costs while receiving welfare benefits
from trade production is one major explanation. The recent literature on
international political economy has emphasized domestic actors and the
importance of export and leading sectors as trade agreements constituencies.
Increased economic integration and economies of scale could facilitate
business sectors and leading exporters reduce transaction costs and increase
profits by trade agreements. They will be able to achieve an advantage over
international rivals in the markets of trading partners [1–3]. Some countries'
pursuit of closer integration or the establishment of a single market may
result in trade diversion, harming non-member countries' exports and
making them less competitive in comparison to member countries. Non-
members have sought affiliation out of fear of being harmed by tariff
barriers, resulting in a chain reaction of trade commitment [4]. The
“regionalism bandwagon” [5] that propelled economic integration through
trade agreements in the 1990s was fueled by a “chain reaction” of
“competitive liberalization,” with an effort to “increase competition” with
global counterparts [6–8].
Cooperation between ASEAN countries in economic sector is initiated
to integrate value chains in the Southeast Asian region. This goal is
manifested in the form of collective agreements in the form of trade
cooperation. ASEAN Free Trade Agreements (AFTA) was initiated in 1977 to
perfect the trade cooperation agreement that was ratified previously. At the
fourth ASEAN Summit in Singapore in 1992, AFTA was present to provide
opportunities for a number of ASEAN trade cooperation activities by
mutually agreeing to implement a system of free trade liberalization in
which the GATT system was carried out in the ASEAN region. AFTA itself
was formed with the aim of being a step towards progressing ASEAN's
development ideals to catch up with world-based production
competitiveness, as can be compared to regional cooperation in developed
European and American regions. Of course, it allows ASEAN members to
achieve their trade benefit effectively. During AFTA implementation, each
ASEAN member can be able to enforce various AFTA agreements in
multiple stages so that they can increase trading activity on regional scale
[9].
AFTA ratification tries to ensure that ASEAN members able to exploit
potential market in Southeast Asia dominantly. The clauses in AFTA
conclude significant policies to gradually liberalize trade, i.e., reducing
tariffs on various commodities, eliminating administrative barriers to the
goods and services exchange, and cross-border policies to expedite regional
trade transactions.Yue [10] stated several reasons for the establishment
AFTA, including narrowing economic disparities and the development of
ASEAN's less developed countries, competition with China, India and Indo-
China countries for trade and investment, the emergence of competitive
regionalism in North America and Europe, and the need to return to
regional markets in anticipation of a possible the Uruguay Round collapse.
Various collaborations were raised by ASEAN members, until an
important moment took place in 2003 at their 9th summit in Bali. That time,
all leaders of member countries declared their agreement to form the
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). The principle objective of AEC is to
make ASEAN a stable, prosperous and competitive region with equitable
economic development, reduced poverty, and advanced growth. ASEAN
members are diverse socio-economies but all of which grow in tandem
together as a secure socio-cultural and political community. Since 2007, a
blueprint of the AEC master plan has been drafted and was finally agreed to
start in 2015 [11]. This blueprint contains goals that will be achieved
collectively as an entity of Southeast Asia. This blueprint accommodates 4
the main pillars, namely: (1) single market and production base; (2)
competitive economic area; (3) equitable economic development; (4)
integration with the global economy. The pillars will be gradually achieved
in order to achieve the ultimate goals: (1) cohesive and integrated economy;
(2) competitive, innovative, and dynamic community; (3) closely related
sectoral cooperation, (4) resilient, inclusive and human-centerd community;
5) contribute to global community [9]
With the launch of the AEC, ASEAN will further affirm its common
goal of forming a single market and production base. In addition, AEC is
also expected to be able to encourage the creation of a competitive, equitable
and integrated region with the global value chain. This effort is reflected in
an agreement that focuses on increasing the interaction of trade in goods and
services between ASEAN members, loosening procedures, increasing
multinational investment, and mobility of experts and professionals [11].
The ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) is a massive initiative to improve
ASEAN's global competitiveness [45]. The AEC which will provide a single
regional common market and production base, will lead to the free
movement of goods, services, investment and skilled labor within the
region[12].

2.2. Agriculture in Southeast Asia (Pak Jamhari dan Gilang)

The agricultural sector cannot be separated from the progress of
development in ASEAN member countries. Food security and malnutrition
issues that had emerged during the 1980-1990s were resolved by an
impressive increase in the agriculture performance. Important policies
related to growing production and expanding access to food are vital
markers of the government's role and the collective cooperation of
agribusiness actors in this region. Such steps are indispensable because of the
dominance of the agricultural sector in the economy and social life of
Southeast Asian. The agricultural sector still contributes a relatively large
portion to some member countries, particularly in production and
employment. Southeast Asia has made tremendous progress in improving
food security. In the early 1990s, ASEAN’s nutritional deficiency rate was
highest in the world (31%). But, this rate has fallen below 10% in 2014-2016,
far below that of other regions. Nonetheless, in accordance with various
development level among countries in the region, food security remains a
significant problem. In the latest decade, Southeast Asia, which had a
population of about 630 million (9% of the world's total), still contained
about 60 million (or 8%) people who were undernourished [13].
The rural population is very identical with primary sector activities,
especially agriculture. In terms of employment, agricultural sector plays a
 very vital role in main countries. More than half of the workforce in
Myanmar works in the agricultural sector. Meanwhile, in Viet Nam,
Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, although less than half of the total
workforce, employment in the agricultural sector is relatively high. Even in
some countries, employment rate is greater than the percentage of the
agricultural sector in GDP. Indonesia possesses the largest agricultural land.
It is supported by the area of this country which is relatively greater than
other countries. Meanwhile, Thailand, Philippines, and Viet Nam have the
highest percentage of land use as agricultural land. Overall, ASEAN
provides agricultural land of around 138 million ha, a relatively large
number to support the food needs of its population and to provide
commodities to international markets [9].
Agriculture in Southeast Asia relies heavily on small-scale farming. In
the agricultural base countries; Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines,
Thailand, and Viet Nam; most of the farmers manage less than 1 ha of farms.
The percentages are very striking in Indonesia and Viet Nam, where around
73% and 84% of farm households only operate less than 1 ha of farm.
Farmers who run less than 1 ha are called smallholders (ASEAN Secretary,
2020). Smallholders generally face various constraints in managing their
farms, i.e., capital, production scale and technology access [14–18].
Smallholders also have high vulnerability. When shocks and extraordinary
crisis occur and befall their farms, their households will easily fall into
poverty or even starvation [19]. Due to this fact, agricultural development in
the Southeast Asian region has to accommodate the interests of small
farmers. If disruption occurs in this group, then not only crisis at the micro
level will arise, but it will also disrupt the supply of commodities in regional
and global markets.
Southeast Asian efforts are concentrated on establishing adequate
connection between farm producers and potential foreign demand for
agricultural products as part of their economic integration. However, this
system works well when dealing with transportable agricultural goods that
distributors can quickly inspect for consistency. This indicates a minor
intelligence discrepancy. In the field of quality specification of rural goods
such as crops, fruits, and bulbs, extreme information imbalance can appear
to be the overcoming these obstacles. Southeast Asian countries could be
able to solve the problem by better coordinating agricultural productivity
with distribution and manufacturing requirements. [20]. The effectiveness of
collaboration depends on the characteristics of commodity and the market
scope.

2.3. Theoretical Framework (Agus)

Market integration
(AEC) Open Innovation
Positive effect

Research gap Agricultural Trade Performance

 Negative effect

Covid-19

3. Materials and Methods (Pak Jamhari dan Gilang)

3.1. Data
Untuk menjawab tujuan penelitian ini, kami menggunakan data
sekunder memuat volume dan nilai export-import yang diperoleh
dari database World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS) Bank
Dunia. Data export-import yang dilibatkan dalam analisis adalah
nilai total perdagangan (seluruh komoditas: HS Code 00) dan
komoditas yang dihasilkan oleh sector pertanian dengan kode
perdagangan dua-digit HS Code 01-24. Detil komoditas
ditampilkan pada Lampiran…
Data yang digunakan adalah rentang tahun 2012 hingga 2020
untuk memvisualisasikan pola perdagangan jangka pendek. Dari
rentang waktu tersebut, data dikelompokkan menjadi 4 periode,
yaitu: (1) 2012-2014 sebagai periode sebelum pemberlakuan AEC;
(2) 2015-2019 sebagai periode AEC; (3) 2020 sebagai periode
COVID-19; dan (4) 2015-2020 sebagai periode AEC plus COVID-
19. PEmbagian periode ini ditujukan untuk mengidentifikasi
dampak jangka pendek pemberlakuan AEC Agreement dan
pandemic COVID-19 terhadap kinerja perdagangan.
Dollar AS secara seragam dipakai sebagai satuan perdagangan
komoditas dari wilayah asal sehingga bias nilai dapat dihindari.
Selain itu, database WITS hanya menyediakan jenis data ini.
Selnajutnya, negara-negara yang dianalisis adalah anggota
ASEAN, yaitu Brunei Darussalam, Kamboja, Indonesia, Lao PDR,
Malaysia, Myanmar, Filipina, Singapura, Thailand, dan Viet Nam.

3.2. Evaluasi Kinerja Integrasi Pasar

3.2.1. General short-term export import pattern

Kami menggunakan analisis grafis untuk memvisualisasikan
perkembangan kinerja export dan import ASEAN. Pembagian periode
sperti yang disampaikan pada sub-bab sebelumnya dapat memberikan
gambaran pola perdagangan internasional, khususnya komoditas
sector pertanian dan pangan. Visualisasi perkembangan kinerja export
akan memperlihatkan kondisi umum berbagai indicator pada masing-
masing periode. Langkah ini sangat bermanfaat untuk melihat
dampak jangka pendek integrasi pasar lewat AEC Agreement dan
pandemic COVID-19 terhadap performa berbagai indicator
perdagangan komoditas pertanian di ASEAN.

3.2.2. Revealed Comparative Adventage (RCA)

Pertanyaan mendasar mengenai dampak COVID-19 terhadap kinerja
perdagangan di ASEAN adalah bagaimana daya saing merespon
fenomena pandemic. Beragam cara ditawarkan oleh banyak literature
untuk mengukur besarnya daya saing pada perdagangan lintas batas.
Penelitian ini mengakomodasi teori perdagangan Ricardian dengan
memanfaatkan metode Revealed Comparative Adventage (RCA).
Indeks yang dihasilkan dari metode ini memang dapat dikritisi karena
beberapa kelemahan, misalnya ketidak mampuan dalam
memperhitungkan dampak kebijakan yang berkorelasi dengan
perdagangan [21,22]. Namun demikian, Indeks RCA dapat mengukur
performa daya saing secara definitive dan konklutif [23]. Selain itu,
RCA lebih mengutamakan penggunana data ekspor dibandingkan
impor, sehingga dapat mengurangi bias kebijakan perdagangan
Spesifikasi metode RCA adalah sebagai berikut [24]:

RCA =
( X )
X ij

( )
ij
X ej
X et

Nilai X dalam formula tersebut merepresentasikan nilai export. Nilai

export ini dinotasikan dengan satuan Dollar AS pada harga tahun
berlaku. Walaupun nilai ini mengandung inflasi, namun hanya data
ini lah yang tersedia. Sementara itu, j menunjukkan produk tertentu,
dalam konteks ini komoditas dengan kode HS01-HS24. Lambang t
menunjukkan seluruh komoditas yang diperdagangkan (HS00)
Negara asal export diwakili oleh notasi i. Di lain pihak, kelompok
negara, dalam peneltiian ini adalah ASEAN, dilambangkan dengan e.
Formula RCA ini membandingkan pangsa export suatu negara dalam
akumulasi nilai export di wilayah kelompok negara (wilayah
referensi). Jika indeks yang dihasilkan dari perhitungan RCA adalah
lebih dari 1, maka suatu negara dapat diidentifikasi sebagai negara
yang memiliki keunggulan komparatif. Akan tetapi, jika nilai RCA
kurang dari 1, maka negara tersebut tidak memiliki keunggulan
komparatif di pasar internasional.

3.2.3. Trade Spialization Index (TSI)

Indeks RCA versi Balassa dapat ditransformasi sehingga dapat
menunjukkan rata-rata yang konstan pada sector komoditas tertentu
di masing-masing negara ASEAN. Proudman dan Redding [23] telah
mengusulkan indeks hasil transformasi ini sebagai indeks spesialisasi
perdagangan. Secara implisit, indeks ini mempertimbangkan sisi
permintaan dan sisi penawaran, dimana ekspor identik dengan suplai
domestik dan impor adalah permintaan domestik, atau sesua dengan
teori perdagangan internasional, yaitu teori net of surplus, dimana
ekspor dari suatu barang terjadi apabila ada kelebihan atas barang
tersebut di pasar domestic.Formula perhitungan indeks spesialisi
perdagangan dinotasikan sebagai berikut:

TSI =
( X )
X ij

( )
ij
M ej
M et

Pada spesifikasi di atas, Xij menunjukkan nilai ekport komoditas

HS01-HS24 dari masing-masing negara ASEAN; Xit mewakili nilai
total ekspor dari masing-masing negara ASEAN; Mej denotes nilai
import komoditas HS01-HS24 di pasar ASEAN; dan Met adalah nilai
impor seluruh komoditas di pasar ASEAN.
Indeks TSI tersebut juga dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi
tingkat pertumbuhan suatu komoditi dalam perdagangan yang
terbagi ke dalam 5 tahap: (1) Pengenalan, jika nilai TSI sebesar -1
hingga -0.5; (2) Import substitution, jika nilai TSI sebesar -0.5 hingga
0; (3) Pertumbuhan, jika nilai TSI sebesar 0.01 hingga 0.8; (4)
Kematangan, jika TSI bernilai 0.81 hingga 1; Re-importing, jika TSI
mengalami penurun dari rentang 1 hingga 0.