MA(12) MA(2x12) data detrended

Tahun Periode Y(t) T(t) y(t)-T(t) S(t) R(t)

1 894 -197.5854
2 667 -306.3354
3 858 -218.4604
4 865 -164.1271
5 989 -36.84375
6 1093 1024.083 94.10625
2010
7 1191 1027.167 1025.625 165.375 272.4563 -107.0813
8 1203 1044.417 1035.792 167.2083333333 246.5146 -79.30625
9 1159 1051 1047.708 111.2916666667 131.7729 -20.48125
10 1046 1058.25 1054.625 -8.625 153.4813 -162.1063
11 1203 1058.917 1058.583 144.4166666667 -29.29375 173.7104
12 1121 1066 1062.458 58.54166666667 54.31458 4.227083
13 931 1083.75 1074.875 -143.875 -197.5854 53.71042
14 874 1094.083 1088.917 -214.9166666667 -306.3354 91.41875
15 937 1101.417 1097.75 -160.75 -218.4604 57.71042
16 952 1122.75 1112.083 -160.0833333333 -164.1271 4.04375
17 997 1122.917 1122.833 -125.8333333333 -36.84375 -88.98958
18 1178 1132.333 1127.625 50.375 94.10625 -43.73125
2011
19 1404 1129.75 1131.042 272.9583333333 272.4563 0.502083
20 1327 1128.5 1129.125 197.875 246.5146 -48.63958
21 1247 1127.667 1128.083 118.9166666667 131.7729 -12.85625
22 1302 1134.833 1131.25 170.75 153.4813 17.26875
23 1205 1139.917 1137.375 67.625 -29.29375 96.91875
24 1234 1158.167 1149.042 84.95833333333 54.31458 30.64375
25 900 1164.167 1161.167 -261.1666666667 -197.5854 -63.58125
26 859 1169.667 1166.917 -307.9166666667 -306.3354 -1.58125
27 927 1175.417 1172.542 -245.5416666667 -218.4604 -27.08125
28 1038 1179.667 1177.542 -139.5416666667 -164.1271 24.58542
29 1058 1184.833 1182.25 -124.25 -36.84375 -87.40625
30 1397 1190.333 1187.583 209.4166666667 94.10625 115.3104
2012
31 1476 1197.25 1193.792 282.2083333333 272.4563 9.752083
32 1393 1188.75 1193 200 246.5146 -46.51458
33 1316 1190.667 1189.708 126.2916666667 131.7729 -5.48125
34 1353 1192.167 1191.417 161.5833333333 153.4813 8.102083
35 1267 1205.083 1198.625 68.375 -29.29375 97.66875
36 1300 1199.417 1202.25 97.75 54.31458 43.43542
37 983 1199.417 1199.417 -216.4166666667 -197.5854 -18.83125
38 757 1206.083 1202.75 -445.75 -306.3354 -139.4146
39 950 1210.417 1208.25 -258.25 -218.4604 -39.78958
40 1056 1215.917 1213.167 -157.1666666667 -164.1271 6.960417
41 1213 1234.75 1225.333 -12.33333333333 -36.84375 24.51042
42 1329 1220 1227.375 101.625 94.10625 7.51875
2013
43 1476 1230.167 1225.083 250.9166666667 272.4563 -21.53958
2013

44 1473 1244.667 1237.417 235.5833333333 246.5146 -10.93125

45 1368 1251.583 1248.125 119.875 131.7729 -11.89792
46 1419 1239.583 1245.583 173.4166666667 153.4813 19.93542
47 1493 1234.667 1237.125 255.875 -29.29375 285.1688
48 1123 1229.833 1232.25 -109.25 54.31458 -163.5646
49 1105 1235.083 1232.458 -127.4583333333 -197.5854 70.12708
50 931 1243.583 1239.333 -308.3333333333 -306.3354 -1.997917
51 1033 1240 1241.792 -208.7916666667 -218.4604 9.66875
52 912 1240.333 1240.167 -328.1666666667 -164.1271 -164.0396
53 1154 1156.917 1198.625 -44.625 -36.84375 -7.78125
54 1271 1173.917 1165.417 105.5833333333 94.10625 11.47708
2014
55 1539 1161.833 1167.875 371.125 272.4563 98.66875
56 1575 1163.75 1162.792 412.2083333333 246.5146 165.6938
57 1325 1160.667 1162.208 162.7916666667 131.7729 31.01875
58 1423 1184.167 1172.417 250.5833333333 153.4813 97.10208
59 492 1204.75 1194.458 -702.4583333333 -29.29375 -673.1646
60 1327 1209.5 1207.125 119.875 54.31458 65.56042
61 960 1227.917 1218.708 -258.7083333333 -197.5854 -61.12292
62 954 1229 1228.458 -274.4583333333 -306.3354 31.87708
63 996 1240.333 1234.667 -238.6666666667 -218.4604 -20.20625
64 1194 1258.417 1249.375 -55.375 -164.1271 108.7521
65 1401 1337.333 1297.875 103.125 -36.84375 139.9688
66 1328 1351 1344.167 -16.16666666667 94.10625 -110.2729
2015
67 1760 272.4563
68 1588 246.5146
69 1461 131.7729
70 1640 153.4813
71 1439 -29.29375
72 1491 54.31458
 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags
2010 165.375 167.2083
2011 -143.875 -214.9167 -160.75 -160.0833 -125.8333 50.375 272.9583 197.875
2012 -261.1667 -307.9167 -245.5417 -139.5417 -124.25 209.4167 282.2083 200
2013 -216.4167 -445.75 -258.25 -157.1667 -12.33333 101.625 250.9167 235.5833
2014 -127.4583 -308.3333 -208.7917 -328.1667 -44.625 105.5833 371.125 412.2083
2015 -258.7083 -274.4583 -238.6667 -55.375 103.125 -16.16667

Rata-rata -201.525 -310.275 -222.4 -168.0667 -40.78333 90.16667 268.5167 242.575

Adjusted value -3.939583

Komponen Musiman -197.5854 -306.3354 -218.4604 -164.1271 -36.84375 94.10625 272.4563 246.5146
Sept Okt Nov Des
111.2917 -8.625 144.4167 58.54167
118.9167 170.75 67.625 84.95833
126.2917 161.5833 68.375 97.75
119.875 173.4167 255.875 -109.25
162.7917 250.5833 -702.4583 119.875

127.8333 149.5417 -33.23333 50.375

131.7729 153.4813 -29.29375 54.31458

 MA(12) MA(2x12) data detrended
Tahun Periode Y(t) T(t) y(t)/T(t) S(t) R(t) 2010
1 894 0.830471 2011
2 667 0.740483 2012
3 858 0.81522 2013
4 865 0.861318 2014
5 989 0.964686 2015
6 1093 1024.083 1.078361
2010
7 1191 1027.167 1025.625 1.161243 1.234471 0.940681 Rata-rata
8 1203 1044.417 1035.792 1.16143 1.211959 0.958308 Adjusted value
9 1159 1051 1047.708 1.106224 1.112726 0.994156
10 1046 1058.25 1054.625 0.991822 1.12824 0.879087 Komponen Musiman
11 1203 1058.917 1058.583 1.136424 0.976038 1.164324
12 1121 1066 1062.458 1.0551 1.046027 1.008674
13 931 1083.75 1074.875 0.866147 0.830471 1.042959
14 874 1094.083 1088.917 0.802633 0.740483 1.083931
15 937 1101.417 1097.75 0.853564 0.81522 1.047036
16 952 1122.75 1112.083 0.856051 0.861318 0.993885
17 997 1122.917 1122.833 0.887932 0.964686 0.920437
18 1178 1132.333 1127.625 1.044674 1.078361 0.96876
2011
19 1404 1129.75 1131.042 1.241334 1.234471 1.005559
20 1327 1128.5 1129.125 1.175246 1.211959 0.969708
21 1247 1127.667 1128.083 1.105415 1.112726 0.993429
22 1302 1134.833 1131.25 1.150939 1.12824 1.020119
23 1205 1139.917 1137.375 1.059457 0.976038 1.085467
24 1234 1158.167 1149.042 1.073938 1.046027 1.026684
25 900 1164.167 1161.167 0.775083 0.830471 0.933305
26 859 1169.667 1166.917 0.736128 0.740483 0.994118
27 927 1175.417 1172.542 0.79059 0.81522 0.969788
28 1038 1179.667 1177.542 0.881497 0.861318 1.023429
29 1058 1184.833 1182.25 0.894904 0.964686 0.927664
30 1397 1190.333 1187.583 1.176339 1.078361 1.090858
2012
31 1476 1197.25 1193.792 1.236397 1.234471 1.00156
32 1393 1188.75 1193 1.167645 1.211959 0.963436
33 1316 1190.667 1189.708 1.106153 1.112726 0.994093
34 1353 1192.167 1191.417 1.135623 1.12824 1.006543
35 1267 1205.083 1198.625 1.057045 0.976038 1.082995
36 1300 1199.417 1202.25 1.081306 1.046027 1.033727
37 983 1199.417 1199.417 0.819565 0.830471 0.986868
38 757 1206.083 1202.75 0.629391 0.740483 0.849973
39 950 1210.417 1208.25 0.786261 0.81522 0.964478
40 1056 1215.917 1213.167 0.870449 0.861318 1.010602
41 1213 1234.75 1225.333 0.989935 0.964686 1.026173
42 1329 1220 1227.375 1.082799 1.078361 1.004115
2013
43 1476 1230.167 1225.083 1.204816 1.234471 0.975977
2013

44 1473 1244.667 1237.417 1.190383 1.211959 0.982197

45 1368 1251.583 1248.125 1.096044 1.112726 0.985008
46 1419 1239.583 1245.583 1.139225 1.12824 1.009736
47 1493 1234.667 1237.125 1.20683 0.976038 1.236459
48 1123 1229.833 1232.25 0.911341 1.046027 0.871241
49 1105 1235.083 1232.458 0.896582 0.830471 1.079607
50 931 1243.583 1239.333 0.75121 0.740483 1.014486
51 1033 1240 1241.792 0.831863 0.81522 1.020415
52 912 1240.333 1240.167 0.735385 0.861318 0.853791
53 1154 1156.917 1198.625 0.96277 0.964686 0.998014
54 1271 1173.917 1165.417 1.090597 1.078361 1.011347
2014
55 1539 1161.833 1167.875 1.317778 1.234471 1.067484
56 1575 1163.75 1162.792 1.354499 1.211959 1.117611
57 1325 1160.667 1162.208 1.140071 1.112726 1.024574
58 1423 1184.167 1172.417 1.213732 1.12824 1.075775
59 492 1204.75 1194.458 0.411902 0.976038 0.422015
60 1327 1209.5 1207.125 1.099306 1.046027 1.050935
61 960 1227.917 1218.708 0.787719 0.830471 0.948521
62 954 1229 1228.458 0.776583 0.740483 1.048752
63 996 1240.333 1234.667 0.806695 0.81522 0.989544
64 1194 1258.417 1249.375 0.955678 0.861318 1.109553
65 1401 1337.333 1297.875 1.079457 0.964686 1.118973
66 1328 1351 1344.167 0.987973 1.078361 0.91618
2015
67 1760 1.234471
68 1588 1.211959
69 1461 1.112726
70 1640 1.12824
71 1439 0.976038
72 1491 1.046027
 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Ags Sept
1.161243 1.16143 1.106224
0.866147 0.802633 0.853564 0.856051 0.887932 1.044674 1.241334 1.175246 1.105415
0.775083 0.736128 0.79059 0.881497 0.894904 1.176339 1.236397 1.167645 1.106153
0.819565 0.629391 0.786261 0.870449 0.989935 1.082799 1.204816 1.190383 1.096044
0.896582 0.75121 0.831863 0.735385 0.96277 1.090597 1.317778 1.354499 1.140071
0.787719 0.776583 0.806695 0.955678 1.079457 0.987973

0.829019 0.739189 0.813795 0.859812 0.962999 1.076476 1.232313 1.209841 1.110781

Adjusted value 0.998252

Komponen Musiman 0.830471 0.740483 0.81522 0.861318 0.964686 1.078361 1.234471 1.211959 1.112726
Okt Nov Des
0.991822 1.136424 1.0551
1.150939 1.059457 1.073938
1.135623 1.057045 1.081306
1.139225 1.20683 0.911341
1.213732 0.411902 1.099306

1.126268 0.974332 1.044198

1.12824 0.976038 1.046027 12