So, we want to reflect someone's skill in combat. What level fighter are they?

If
they are a higher level fighter, then you will almost certainly lose.

Initiative is not a function of Dexterity. It is a function of level difference

plus situational factors.

HP: 4, 6, 8.

Who goes first? Someone has to go first. That's the big one. Who gets to make the
first attack?
Attacks miss on a 1. How much better am I than my opponent?
Choose which die to roll.

On a hit, roll for damage. You can shake, injure, scare, floor, wound, kill.

Damage die mitigated by my armor.

No armor: d6
Padded: d8
Leather armor: d10
Mail: d12
Plate: d20

1. Killed
2. Wounded
3. Floored
4. Injured
5. Scared
6. Shaken
7+. Nothing