FUTURISTIC PLANNING

Futuristic planning means looking ahead and chalking out future courses of action to be followed. It is

a preparatory step. It is a systematic activity which determines when, how and who is going to perform a

specific job.

In educational futurism, the term scenario was emphasized. It is a statement of assumptions about the

operating environment of the system to be studied. It is a brief description of the future situations which

could arise by the continuing interaction of a number of socio-economic, political & other trends which can

be identified currently. The five basic steps involved in scenario planning are: Stage 1:  determine a focal

issue or critical decision to ‘anchor’ the process, Stage 2:  identify and analyze the internal and external

driving forces after the decision these drivers are usually categorized into ‘predetermined elements’, those

which we have a good idea about how they will play out over time – for example, demographics, and

‘critical uncertainties’, those which we have no real understanding of how they will develop into the future,

Stage 3:  build scenarios using inductive or deductive approaches, Stage 4: identify robust potential strategic

options and implications, and determine strategic options, and Stage 5: identify drivers and other issues that

need to be monitored over time these are often called ‘early warning signals’ – to see whether something

identified in a scenario is ‘coming true’ or is less likely to happen. This last step is often neglected, but it is

critical in terms of embedding strategic thinking in the organization.

Eric Trist diagrams the various planning modes as a result about planners’ attitudes about past, present

and the future. Inactive planners always go by what is happening today, and therefore plays by its ear,

always waiting and seeing. Reactive planners always look back at past event or past precedence to make

decisions- if there are no past examples or precedence, then he says it cannot be. Pre-active is so futuristic

even for his own good, always predicting and preparing but paying little heed to lessons of the past or

scarcities of the present. Inter-active planner looks at past, present, and future in a neutral way and instead

prepares to focus on making things happen.