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Vietnam Key Economic Sectors Outlook in 2022 2023
Vietnam Key Economic Sectors Outlook in 2022 2023
Outlook in 2022-2023
It is fairly challenging to assess industry outlook in Vietnam. Our methodology is mainly based on data-driven
analytics with the goal to serve local investors in making optimal investing decisions and foreign partners in
expanding their business in Vietnam.
This document presents an overview of key economic sectors of Vietnam based on the analysis of our database
and cannot cover all major economic sectors of Vietnam.
In this presentation, we have covered approximately 1700 publicly-traded companies with total market
capitalization of 6.7 trillion VND, accounting for 130% of GDP in 2021 and their combined total revenues of 2.8
trillion VND, making up 55% of GDP in 2021 in Vietnam. Private companies’ data are also used in some cases
to illustrate outlook assessment and related analysis.
The objective of this document is to present assessment of key sectors in Vietnam and its implications for policy-
making, investment and business.
19.0% 23.7%
Export growth 13.8%
8.5% 8.0%
12.9%
7.0%
Real estate: Revenue decreased in Q1-2022 due to delayed handover progress- the aftermath of social distancing in Q3-2021.
Some sectors made a strong recovery after COVID: Retail, Personal Goods, Pharmaceuticals... as domestic demand recovered well
Defensive sectors that are less affected by COVID such as IT, water, ... maintained growth in Q2-2022. Only food sector’s growth remained stable because the need to store
food was no longer as high as it was during COVID period.
Aviation: Aviation sector is recovering but still far from "normal"
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 8
Most sectors have a "bright" outlook in 2022
Revenue growth by sectors over the years and forecast for 2022
Source: FiinGroup, Data from 750 listed companies in the non-financial sector, accounting for 82% of total capitalization
500
Banking sector is predicted to grow
by 30% in Profit after tax in 2022
Source: FiinGroup, Financial statements of 27 listed banks with outstanding credit accounts for 73% of the system's total credit balance
Nghìn tỷ VNĐ
200 1.52%
1.50%
1.99% 1.91% 1.90%
1.63% 1.69% 150
273.9
1.00%
100 206.6
152.9
50 0.50%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0 0.00%
TỷOn
lệ balance-sheet
nợ xấu nội bảng
NPL Ratio 2019 2020 2021
TỷGross
lệ nợNPL
xấu gộp
Ratio(bao
(on gồm nợ xấu nộiNPLs,
balance-sheet bảng,VAMC
nợ bán&cho VAMCbad
potential chưa xử lí và nợ xấu tiềm ẩn)
debts)
Source: FiinRatings
Note: Data was derived from financial statements of 29 Vietnam commercial banks, excluding Agribank in
TỷAdjusted
lệ nợ xấu điều
NPL chỉnh
ratio (baoNPLs
(gross gồm &
nợpotential
xấu gộpNPLs
và nợfrom
xấu Covid-restructured
tiềm ẩn từ dư nợ tái cơ cấu do ảnh
loans) 2021, which does not have a financial statement for Q4/2021. Only corporate bonds of non - bank
hưởng COVID) issuers are counted.
41%
78,000
36% 80,000 Impact of COVID
epidemic
31% 31% The real estate market was
60,000 frozen due to high inflation
25%
and rising interest rates.
17% 40,000
25,591
20,000
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Project implementation is slow due to social distancing during the COVID, as seen by a substantial drop in Contracted Sales/Inventories
The number of units sold fell dramatically, to around 30% (only in the Hanoi and HCMC markets, which account for around 60% of the country's size).
Real estate credit is getting tightened: Bank credit with the State Bank's Circular 16 and recent developments in the corporate bond market (Amended-Draft of Decree
153); and policy changes after the Thu Thiem land auction event
Customer clearance goods through Vietnam's seaports Cold storage and cold supply chain are predicted to rise by more than 10%
(thousand tons) in the next 5 years
1,400 Forecast 250
1,156 1,173
1,200 1,121 1,121
35 17
1,200 1,069.2 200
955 166
929.8 1,000
1,000 868
786 87
808.5 150
800 685 163
800 664.6 692.3 703.0 149
136
530.1 600 120
600 100
103
400 400 86
73 CAGR 2019-21 CAGR 2022-26
66 50
200 Designed capacity 12.6% 5.3%
200
Revenue 14.1% 12.1%
0 0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F
Công
Extrasuất tăng thêm
Capacity (pallet)
(pallet) Công suất
Current hiện tại(pallet)
Capacity (pallet)
Source: FiinGroup, Customs Department Quy mô thị
Market trường
size (Doanh
(Revenue in thu theoUSD)
million triệu USD)
Goods through Vietnam's seaports is predicted to increase by 12-15% Warehousing services (especially cold supply chains) are expected to continue to benefit
in the next 2-3 years due to the recovery of domestic production and from the recovery of retail activity in sales and import - export.
import-export activity, as well as the 15 free trade agreements that
Vietnam has signed in the past
326,680
216,597 7.5%
10.2% 126,280
19.1% 84,432 83,368
-1.0%
-18.2% -1.3%
-29.8%
-60.3%
-33.7%
-255.5%
-41.7%
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 4T21 4T22
Tăng trưởnggrowth
Revenue doanh thu Tăng
Net trưởng LNST
profit growth
Tổng
Total Tăng trưởng
Annual hàng năm
growth
7.1%
3.7
80.0 85.0
0.1
56.0
1.6% 40.0
1.1%
26.1
16.5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f
Source: FiinGroup, General Statistics Office of Vietnam Source: FiinGroup, Vietnam National administration of Tourism
There is still room for recovery and high economic recovery: Some industries are recovering, but most
have not yet returned to their pre-COVID growth rate
Some sectors should be "activated“ to achieve stronger recovery: Most key sectors’ growth prospects are
expected to be positive in 2022. However, other sectors, such as aviation and foreign tourism, as well as
construction and materials, are recovering slowly. This element will promote higher economic growth, especially
in the context that current interest rates have "bottomed out" and inflation may increase above expectation.
Residential real estate industry is facing significant challenges in the short term: Real estate sector is
expected to have a great potential and promising long-term prospect but the short-term impacts of policies and
credit are the most important risk factors that need to be well-monitored. Real estate industry's difficulties will
affect several related sectors, including construction and building materials, and especially banking.
The banking industry's main risk depends on Real estate sector: The banking and finance industry are still
growing well through the COVID-19 epidemic, but the difficulties that the real estate market is currently facing
might change the banking industry's outlook in the next 2-3 years. Policy changes might impact on two pillars of
the economy: real estate and banking, as well as spillover to the financial market in general and related sectors
in Vietnam; as Vietnam currently has a great connection between the money market, bond market, bank credit
and stock market.
This report was prepared by FiinGroup Joint Stock Company for reference only. This report does not recommend buying, selling or holding any stock or any particular
transaction.
The information contained in this report, including FiinGroup's data, charts, tables, analysis and judgments, is used for reference only at your own risk. FiinGroup will
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