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Vietnam’s Key Economic Sectors:

Outlook in 2022-2023

Hanoi, 05 May 2022


Vietnam’s Economic Forecast Forum organized by MPI’s Economy and Forecast Review
Presented by: Mr. Thuan Quang Nguyen, FiinGroup’s CEO
Opening Line

 It is fairly challenging to assess industry outlook in Vietnam. Our methodology is mainly based on data-driven
analytics with the goal to serve local investors in making optimal investing decisions and foreign partners in
expanding their business in Vietnam.
 This document presents an overview of key economic sectors of Vietnam based on the analysis of our database
and cannot cover all major economic sectors of Vietnam.
 In this presentation, we have covered approximately 1700 publicly-traded companies with total market
capitalization of 6.7 trillion VND, accounting for 130% of GDP in 2021 and their combined total revenues of 2.8
trillion VND, making up 55% of GDP in 2021 in Vietnam. Private companies’ data are also used in some cases
to illustrate outlook assessment and related analysis.
 The objective of this document is to present assessment of key sectors in Vietnam and its implications for policy-
making, investment and business.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 2


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▪ Customized Research ▪ Issue Credit Ratings
▪ Commercial Due Diligence ▪ Credit Assessment
▪ Market Entry Advisory ▪ Independent Credit Evaluation

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 3


Content

1 Overview of Industry & Sector Outlook in Vietnam

2 Assessment of key economic sectors


Banking Sector
Residential Real Estate Sector
Aviation Sector
Catering and Accommodation Sector
Logistics Sector

3 Implications on policy-making and investing

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 4


GDP growth is expected to remain positive from strong export growth, post-COVID
consumption recovery, and increasing public and private sector investment,…

7.1% 7.0% 6.5%  Vietnam’s GDP in the midst of the


4.5% 5.0%
pandemic (2020 and 2021)
GDP Growth 2.9% 2.6%
maintained a positive growth mainly
contributed by export growth and
investments, especially FDI.
Inflation 3.5% 4.0%
2.8% 3.2%
1.8% 1.9%  Consumption decreased (illustrated
(average)
0.3% through negative retail growth) but
has been recovering since then.
8.4% 9.2% 5.0% 4.4% 4.4%
Retail Growth  GDP Growth Prospect in 2022 and
(actual growth) 2023 will likely be bolstered by
-3.0% -6.2% increasing private and public
6.3% 6.2%
investments, recovery of retail
5.9% 5.4% 5.7% 4.9% 4.8% consumption.
FDI/GDP Disbursement

19.0% 23.7%
Export growth 13.8%
8.5% 8.0%
12.9%
7.0%

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F Q1.21 Q1.22


Source: FiinGroup, Resolution 01/NQ-CP, MoIT

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 5


…but short-term challenges are also significant.

Short-term challenges (2022-2023): Positive long-term outlook:


 Because of rising inflations and contractionary monetary policies of all  The COVID-19 outbreak has been effectively controlled (the rate of fully
major central banks, a slow recovery is being witnessed in all major vaccinated population reaches 96%; the primary series coverage reaches 55%;
economies in the world, also the main market for Vietnamese export the mortality rate drops sharply).
products such as Europe, America,… This stagnancy has a negative
 The Government has implemented a highly-effective disease-outbreak response
impact on the demand of Vietnamese export products, one of the main
system "Living safely with COVID“ besides opening the economy and borders to
GDP growth drivers over the years.
recover the economy and normal life.
 The prolonged war between Russia and Ukraine has led to supply
 GDP is expected to grow at 6%-7% in the next two years 2022-2023 thanks to
disruption, pushing up the price level of petroleum products (such as gas,
the recovery of domestic consumption, exports, and investment spending in both
oil, etc.) and important commodities (such as wheat, coal, fertilizer, etc.).
the private and public sectors, as well as the implementation of the
Subsequently, Vietnam experiences an inflation rate hike as it imports
Government's 350 trillion VND economic recovery package.
these products.
 The fundamentals of the economy remain strong:
 Resolution of Zero-Covid in China (one of Vietnamese biggest import-
export partners) might continue to disrupt supply chain, increasing ‒ Political - social stability, young and growing population, high rate of
logistics costs, negatively affecting growth of import/export turnover, and population using internet, steady increase in population income, rapid
causing a slowdown in outbound tourism from China to Vietnam urbanization ... All these factors contribute to a growing and attractive
domestic market.
 Facing the period of changing regulatory policies, key sectors such as
Real Estate are experiencing a challenging time. ‒ The open economy policy remains strong as a result of Vietnam's
participation in 15 free trade agreements; import and export turnover has
consistently increased by more than 12% over the last 10 years; and FDI
continues to flow strongly into Vietnam, making Vietnam one of the region's
major production centers...

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 6


Many sectors still have lower growth than the pre-Covid-19 period despite the
recovery
Quarterly GDP growth (YoY) by industry groups: before and after COVID-19
 Most sectors still have lower growth
Q1/2019 Q1/2022 rates than in the pre-COVID-19 period,
except for the following sectors:
Tài chính, ngân hàng Banking
Finance, và bảo hiểm
& Insurance 9.75%
‒ Finance (including banking and
Công nghiệp chế&biến,
Manufacturing chế tạo industry
processing 7.79% insurance)
Điện, khí đốt, hơi nước và
Electricity, điều
gas, hòa không
steam khí
& air conditioning 7.42% ‒ Agriculture
Vận tải, kho
Transportation, bãi
warehousing 7.06% ‒ Mining: due to the recovery of export
volumes of commodities such as
Cung cấp nước;
Water xử lýwaste
supply, rác thải
treatment 6.54% wolfram, copper...
Thông tin và truyền
Information thông
& communication 5.64%  Some sectors have recovered quickly,
Lâm nghiệpForestry 3.86% nearly approaching pre-epidemic levels
Ô tô,Automobile,
mô tô, xe máy và xe có&động
motorcycle othercơmotor
khácvehicles 2.98% such as forestry, transportation, and
Xây dựng warehousing.
Construction 2.57%
Thủy sảnSeafood  Most of the remaining sectors have
2.54%
not yet reached their pre-COVID-19
Nông nghiệp
Agriculture 2.35% growth rates.
Bất động Real
sản Estate 1.78%
Khai khoáng Mining 1.23%
Dịch vụ lưu trú và ăn
Accommodation uốngservices -1.79%
& food
Hoạt động dịch vụ khácactivities
Other -3.75%
Source: FiinPro Platform, GSO

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 7


Except for residential real estate secor, some key sectors have recovered strongly
Quarterly revenue growth (y-o-y)
2019 2020 2021 2022
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
% % % % % % % % % % % % %
Real estate sectors
Residential real estate 7.8% 94.8% 36.8% -17.1% -15.6% -25.2% 59.4% 13.2% 59.7% 59.9% -21.9% 12.6% -26.3%
Industrial real estate -7.2% 13.3% 7.2% 4.8% -2.6% -19.2% -14.0% -2.5% 23.4% 31.7% -7.3% 10.2% 11.8%
Retail Real estate 30.0% 22.1% -21.6% -2.6% -22.3% -13.8% -19.6% 15.2% 25.6% -6.9% -48.5% -50.7% -31.3%
Recovered sectors
Retail 4.7% 17.3% 13.1% 14.6% 13.3% -3.1% 3.1% 10.7% 12.8% 24.7% -3.0% 46.0% 24.7%
Pharmaceutical -3.8% 3.7% 1.0% 2.4% 12.3% -13.2% -9.0% -1.7% -9.0% 12.1% -0.2% -7.3% 12.2%
Personal Goods 12.3% -5.6% 21.5% 28.3% 11.2% -1.9% 0.7% 8.8% 31.6% 42.5% -64.0% 19.8% 34.4%
Logistics 2.8% 23.6% 2.2% -15.7% -17.3% -30.4% -18.4% -3.1% -1.0% 51.2% 9.5% 23.4% 21.1%
“Defensive” sectors
Food 4.4% 3.8% 4.7% 10.6% 7.3% 8.4% 14.3% 6.6% 10.0% 13.0% 8.7% 14.3% -0.2%
Water 15.8% 4.8% 8.0% 3.7% 8.3% -0.5% 1.6% 3.1% -1.9% 9.4% -4.4% 1.4% 4.7%
Information Technology 15.2% 5.5% -1.3% 13.4% 6.1% -4.6% 5.8% -7.1% 15.7% 18.8% 6.7% 14.1% 23.3%
Recovering sectors
Construction 9.6% 2.3% -7.8% 0.3% -15.5% -10.6% -10.8% -8.0% 15.1% 7.3% 3.5% -7.0% -6.8%
Aviation 8.7% 25.8% 6.8% -24.2% -46.3% -65.0% -78.4% -67.2% -42.7% -4.3% -5.1% -34.1% 12.3%
Tourism & travel 2.9% 1.6% 3.9% -1.3% -23.6% -61.3% -54.2% -44.0% -39.4% 12.9% -35.6% -19.5% 8.5%
Hotel -8.9% -0.7% 4.0% -17.3% -27.4% -63.7% -61.4% 22.2% -48.8% 75.3% -15.7% -0.6% 5.2%
Entertainment -1.8% -6.7% 59.0% 64.3% 164.4% -66.3% -54.9% -61.8% -55.2% 101.5% 61.7% -23.2% 22.2%
Source: FiinGroup, Data from 1030 listed companies in the non-financial sector, accounting for 96% of total capitalization

 Real estate: Revenue decreased in Q1-2022 due to delayed handover progress- the aftermath of social distancing in Q3-2021.
 Some sectors made a strong recovery after COVID: Retail, Personal Goods, Pharmaceuticals... as domestic demand recovered well
 Defensive sectors that are less affected by COVID such as IT, water, ... maintained growth in Q2-2022. Only food sector’s growth remained stable because the need to store
food was no longer as high as it was during COVID period.
 Aviation: Aviation sector is recovering but still far from "normal"
Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 8
Most sectors have a "bright" outlook in 2022
Revenue growth by sectors over the years and forecast for 2022

 Total net revenue is expected to grow by


Real estate & Building materials 14% in 2022 (2021:20.5%).
Residential real estate  Real Estate companies are aiming for
Industrial real estate significant growth but facing challenges
Construction
due to policy changes.
Steel
Building materials  Construction: Expectation on increase of
Exporting public investment, FDI & growth of Real
Logistics Estate sector makes a bright outlook of
Water transportation the construction sector.
Seafood
Garment  Some sectors are forecasted to have a
Fertilizer decline in revenue in 2022:
Chemical
‒ Electricity sector’s growth is expected
Consumer Goods
to decrease by 19.2%, mainly due to
Food
lack of gas supply in gas power while
Beverage
coal and hydroelectricity have
Retail
conservative plans
Personal Goods
“Defensive” sectors ‒ Water transportation and logistics:
Electricity because companies expect a decrease
Water in the shipping price index.
Information Technology
‒ Fertilizer: since fertilizer prices
Telecommunication
increased significantly, peaked in
Pharmaceutical
1Q2022, and are expected to fall.

Source: FiinGroup, Data from 750 listed companies in the non-financial sector, accounting for 82% of total capitalization

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 9


Content

1 Overview of Industry & Sector Outlook in Vietnam

2 Assessment of key economic sectors


Banking Sector
Residential Real Estate Sector
Aviation Sector
Catering and Accommodation Sector
Logistics Sector

3 Implications on policy-making and investing

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 10


Banking Sector: Expected to still grow strongly in 2022…
Thanks to credit growth and service fee income despite the impact of debt restructuring from COVID and some recent
problems including bond credit & BOT

500
Banking sector is predicted to grow
by 30% in Profit after tax in 2022

12.3%  Credit is expected to grow by 14% in


400 2022
21.3% 12.0%
23.9%  NIM has maintained stable despite
18.9% 13.6%
the reduction in the size of the
Thousand million VND

300 13.6% 11.2% interest rate support package for


10.4% businesses because the interest
14.8% 12.9% rate/cost of mobilized capital is on an
200 9.6% uptrend.
75.7%  Service fee income continued to
75.2% increase due to economic recovery
76.0%
100 75.5% as well as continued growth in
payment services.
 Many banks have opportunity to
0 reverse the provision from bad debts
2018 2019 2020 2021 affected by COVID-19 that they have
Thuinterest
nhập income
lãi thuần Lãi thuần made previously.
Net Net profit từ hoạt
from động dịch vụ
services Lãi
Netthuần
profit từ hoạt
from động
other khác
activities Tăng
Total trưởng tổng
operating thu growth
income nhập hoạt động

Source: FiinGroup, Financial statements of 27 listed banks with outstanding credit accounts for 73% of the system's total credit balance

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 11


Banking sector: …but, still under pressure from potential bad debts and credit
quality of the residential real estate industry
Non – performing loan pressure increases due to potential bad debts Ownership of corporate bonds/ Total profitable assets of commercial
from outstanding debt restructuring COVID banks over the years
7.36% 7.31%
Giá
Thetrịvalue
TPDN trên BCTC
of corporate củaon
bonds các ngân hàng
financial Việt Nam
statements of Vietnam banks
5.85% Tỷ lệ trên
Value Tổng tài bonds/
of corporate sản sinh lờiprofitable assets
Total

4.96% 5.08% 300 2.50%


2.16%
3.81% 3.79% 250 1.86% 2.00%

Nghìn tỷ VNĐ
200 1.52%
1.50%
1.99% 1.91% 1.90%
1.63% 1.69% 150
273.9
1.00%
100 206.6
152.9
50 0.50%
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
0 0.00%
TỷOn
lệ balance-sheet
nợ xấu nội bảng
NPL Ratio 2019 2020 2021
TỷGross
lệ nợNPL
xấu gộp
Ratio(bao
(on gồm nợ xấu nộiNPLs,
balance-sheet bảng,VAMC
nợ bán&cho VAMCbad
potential chưa xử lí và nợ xấu tiềm ẩn)
debts)
Source: FiinRatings
Note: Data was derived from financial statements of 29 Vietnam commercial banks, excluding Agribank in
TỷAdjusted
lệ nợ xấu điều
NPL chỉnh
ratio (baoNPLs
(gross gồm &
nợpotential
xấu gộpNPLs
và nợfrom
xấu Covid-restructured
tiềm ẩn từ dư nợ tái cơ cấu do ảnh
loans) 2021, which does not have a financial statement for Q4/2021. Only corporate bonds of non - bank
hưởng COVID) issuers are counted.

Source: FiinGroup, SBV


Note: Potential bad debts include lending via C-bond investments, accrued interest and restructured loans
(excl COVID restructured loans) that are currently not categorized in NPL groups but considered by SBV to be  Current events will not have a damaging impact on the commercial banking
risky and need a close watch. Adjusted NPL ratios include loans in Group 1-2 that should have been system if the problem of “snowball" or "domino" effects as mentioned above
categorized to NPLs without loan restructuring policy in Circular 01 and 03.
is kept under control

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 12


Residential Real Estate Sector: significantly impacted by COVID and policy
changes following recent events
Contracted sales/ Inventories of listed real estate companies The number of units sold in Hanoi & HCM City market period 2007 - 2021

The real estate market recovered


100,000 and stabilized again

41%
78,000
36% 80,000 Impact of COVID
epidemic
31% 31% The real estate market was
60,000 frozen due to high inflation
25%
and rising interest rates.

17% 40,000

25,591

20,000

-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Source FiinRatings Source FiinRatings


Note: Data was collected from financial statements of 56 listed residential real estate companies Note: Data were derived from statistics of CBRE, Savills, VARS

 Project implementation is slow due to social distancing during the COVID, as seen by a substantial drop in Contracted Sales/Inventories
 The number of units sold fell dramatically, to around 30% (only in the Hanoi and HCMC markets, which account for around 60% of the country's size).
 Real estate credit is getting tightened: Bank credit with the State Bank's Circular 16 and recent developments in the corporate bond market (Amended-Draft of Decree
153); and policy changes after the Thu Thiem land auction event

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 13


Logistics sector: a "bright spot" with strong growth prospects in the next years.

Customer clearance goods through Vietnam's seaports Cold storage and cold supply chain are predicted to rise by more than 10%
(thousand tons) in the next 5 years
1,400 Forecast 250

1,156 1,173
1,200 1,121 1,121
35 17
1,200 1,069.2 200
955 166
929.8 1,000
1,000 868
786 87
808.5 150
800 685 163
800 664.6 692.3 703.0 149
136
530.1 600 120
600 100
103
400 400 86
73 CAGR 2019-21 CAGR 2022-26
66 50
200 Designed capacity 12.6% 5.3%
200
Revenue 14.1% 12.1%
0 0 0
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f 2023f 2024f 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F 2024F 2025F 2026F

Công
Extrasuất tăng thêm
Capacity (pallet)
(pallet) Công suất
Current hiện tại(pallet)
Capacity (pallet)
Source: FiinGroup, Customs Department Quy mô thị
Market trường
size (Doanh
(Revenue in thu theoUSD)
million triệu USD)

 Goods through Vietnam's seaports is predicted to increase by 12-15%  Warehousing services (especially cold supply chains) are expected to continue to benefit
in the next 2-3 years due to the recovery of domestic production and from the recovery of retail activity in sales and import - export.
import-export activity, as well as the 15 free trade agreements that
Vietnam has signed in the past

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 14


Aviation sector is slowly recovering!
Revenue of airline service businesses plummeted due to the Number of flights in Vietnam in 2019 – 2022
impact of COVID-19 in 2019 - 2021

326,680
216,597 7.5%
10.2% 126,280
19.1% 84,432 83,368

-1.0%
-18.2% -1.3%
-29.8%
-60.3%

-33.7%
-255.5%
-41.7%
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 4T21 4T22
Tăng trưởnggrowth
Revenue doanh thu Tăng
Net trưởng LNST
profit growth
Tổng
Total Tăng trưởng
Annual hàng năm
growth

Source: FiinPro Source: FiinGroup, Civil Aviation Authority of Vietnam

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 15


Catering and accommodation sector is making a strong recovery thanks to domestic
demand
Total retail value of goods, including catering sector in Vietnam Catering and accommodation services are expected to return to the "new
(billion VND) normal" due to the recovery of the tourism industry and the increase in
the number of international travelers (million of visitors)
861,800 876,000
12.6% 852,400
796,000
9.8% 18.0
706,900 15.5

7.1%
3.7

80.0 85.0
0.1
56.0
1.6% 40.0
1.1%
26.1
16.5
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022f

Bán lẻ hàng hóa


Retail Dịch vụ lưu trú, ăn uống
Catering& Dịch vụ du& lịch
Tourism lữ hành
Travel 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1.21 Q1.22
accommodation services
Lượt kháchTourists
Domestic du lịch nội địa Lượt khách
Foreign du lịch quốc tế
Tourists
Dịch vụservices
Other khác Tăng trưởng
Annual hàng năm
Growth

Source: FiinGroup, General Statistics Office of Vietnam Source: FiinGroup, Vietnam National administration of Tourism

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 16


Content

1 Overview of Industry & Sector Outlook in Vietnam

2 Assessment of key economic sectors


Banking Sector
Residential Real Estate Sector
Aviation Sector
Catering and Accommodation Sector
Logistics Sector

3 Implications on policy-making and investing

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 17


Implications

 There is still room for recovery and high economic recovery: Some industries are recovering, but most
have not yet returned to their pre-COVID growth rate
 Some sectors should be "activated“ to achieve stronger recovery: Most key sectors’ growth prospects are
expected to be positive in 2022. However, other sectors, such as aviation and foreign tourism, as well as
construction and materials, are recovering slowly. This element will promote higher economic growth, especially
in the context that current interest rates have "bottomed out" and inflation may increase above expectation.
 Residential real estate industry is facing significant challenges in the short term: Real estate sector is
expected to have a great potential and promising long-term prospect but the short-term impacts of policies and
credit are the most important risk factors that need to be well-monitored. Real estate industry's difficulties will
affect several related sectors, including construction and building materials, and especially banking.
 The banking industry's main risk depends on Real estate sector: The banking and finance industry are still
growing well through the COVID-19 epidemic, but the difficulties that the real estate market is currently facing
might change the banking industry's outlook in the next 2-3 years. Policy changes might impact on two pillars of
the economy: real estate and banking, as well as spillover to the financial market in general and related sectors
in Vietnam; as Vietnam currently has a great connection between the money market, bond market, bank credit
and stock market.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 18


About FiinGroup
As a Vietnam's leader in financial data & analytics, we commit to provide meaningful information,
insights and technologies that drive the capital markets.

• Established in March 2008, FiinGroup has become a market


leader in providing financial data, business information, industry
research, credit rating and other data-driven analytics services in
Vietnam. Date of establishment Charter Capital
• In September 2014, our company entered a strategic capital and March 11th 2008 VND 25 billion
business alliance with Nikkei Inc. & QUICK Corp (Japan) under
which the Japanese partners hold 35.1% equity stake in our Legal Representative Auditor
company and jointly support Japanese investors in Vietnam Nguyen Quang Thuan

• We are serving more than 1,000 local and foreign financial


institutions and corporations through our fintech platform as a
Shareholders Partners
service (PaaS), annual packages and on-call services. NIKKEI: 17.55%
QUICK: 17.55%
• In October 2019, FiinGroup expanded its B2C model with the Management and others: 64.9%
introduction of FiinTrade Platform for 10,000+ active users as
sophisticated investors and traders in Vietnam Stock Market. Personnel Data Analysts, Financial Analysts, Market Analysts,
Risk Analysts with CFA/ ACCA/ CPA Charter holders,
• Expanding into Credit Rating Agency (CRA) under license number
02/GPXH/02/BTC by the Ministry of Finance on 20/03/2020, 140+ IT Engineers & Commercial Staff

FiinGroup official offers credit rating service under the brand


FiinRatings. FiinRatings received technical partnership with S&P
Global Ratings with support from ADB since 20 May 2021.

Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 19


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Financial Information • Business Information • Market Research • Credit Ratings 20


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