Rise & Fall: 9 Minutes to Midnight

Caroline: Good morning and welcome to our presentation “Rise & Fall: 9 Minutes to
Midnight”. I’m Hypatia of Alexandria, one of the first Greek female philosophers,
mathematicians and astronomers of antiquity, and today I’m going to talk about the
Fall of the Roman Empire.
Professor...

Jesús: Thanks, Hypatia. You look fine for being almost 2,000 years old.
I’m Noam Chomsky, professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Some of
you might have heard about my work as a linguist and cognitive scientist. I’m also a
historian, social critic and political activist in America.

C: You know most of them hate you, don’t you?

J: Sure. Anyway, for the next nine minutes Hypatia and I are going to discuss about
societal collapse and will try to explain the parallels between the fall of Rome and the
imminent global catastrophe that is yet to come unless we take action soon.
Hypatia, please go ahead.

C: Thanks, professor.
As you know, there has been long debate about the reasons that led to the collapse of
Western Roman Empire between the 4th and 5th centuries. The answer is there wasn’t
a single reason for this. Thus, we’ve chosen nine among the most feasible.

1. Oversize
According to classical theories, the Roman Empire became impossible to manage at
the time due to its sheer size and complexity, especially the network of roads and
borders, which made Romans unable to protect themselves against external enemies.

2. Immigration
Another widespread opinion is that the rise of immigration and foreign mercenaries in
Roman legions led to a “Germanization” of the military, where obedience and loyalty
were no longer paid to Rome, but to individual leaders for money.

3. Corruption
Apart from the indiscipline of soldiers, Roman elites purportedly became so corrupt
during the last period of Imperial era that the Empire weakened from the inside. Rulers
were more focused on political intrigues than in public affairs.

4. Economic crisis
Roman economy was based on slave labour and conquest. The lack of international
trade and of new military campaigns made the government too dependent on taxes,
which grew so high that the population turned against it.
5. Technology
Technological development is one of the main driving forces of history. Consequently,
the invention of the horseshoe in the 2nd century might have triggered the fall of the
Empire, whose army mostly moved on foot, while barbarians attacked on horseback.

6. Poisoning
Poisoning due to the extensive use of lead kitchenware could be among the reasons of
the decline in the fertility rate of rich Patrician women, who very often gave birth to
seriously ill babies. It could also explain madness in emperors such as Nero or Caligula.

7. Plagues
A severe plague of smallpox and measles in 165 CE ravaged Rome. According to some
historical reports, around half the population of the Empire died and that of Roman
cities dropped to 10% as many citizens ran away from illnesses.

8. Environment
Overpopulated cities, deforestation and desertification among others caused a decline
in fertile land and the decrease of food production. Besides, a Little Ice Age made
climate conditions in Northern Europe colder and pushed Germanic tribes southwards.

9. Conflicts
As previously mentioned, civil wars among corrupt elites for control of the Empire
were responsible for a general military and social decay which led to its fragmentation
and eventually to the barbarian invasions in the West.

J: Thanks, Hypatia. I’ll go on from this point.

“So, what does this all have to do with me? And who cares anyway?”, you must be
wondering. Well, now Iet’s see how similar our modern world is and how close we are
to the brink of abyss at this moment.

1. Oversize
“2017: The UN fail to keep peace and human rights worldwide”
Despite the fact that communications have transformed the world into a global village,
such a complex and diverse planet is not easy to control. Failed states, terrorism and
brutal regimes act with impunity before an indifferent international community.

2. Immigration
“2025: Massive influx of refugees due to wars and climate change”
As the effects of climate change and conflicts arise, the richer countries will end up
overflowed by huge masses of displaced people seeking asylum. Their presence is most
probably to cause pockets of poverty and ethnic clashes.

3. Corruption
“2029: Increase of inequality in the First World leads to rise of nationalism”
Since the beginning of the 21st century, wages haven’t ceased dropping while at the
same time unemployment rates were on the rise in the Developed World. Dissatisfied
with corrupt elites, citizens vote for extreme political parties that dismantle
democracy.
4. Economic crisis
“2037: Financial crisis drive the world into New Great Depression”
A part of that New World Order consists in the further enrichment of the wealthy by
means of a sequence of global financial crisis aimed at an impoverished social majority,
alienated by tightly controlled media and fed with hate speech.

5. Technology
“2038: Robots make human work force dispensable to elites”
Contrary to the popular belief and science fiction plots, robots will not rebel against
humans. Instead, they will be used as an oppressive instrument by the elites that will
gradually replace human work force once it becomes unnecessary.

6. Poisoning
“2043: Pollutants in food chain damage human health”
Contents of mercury, cadmium and other heavy metals in wild fish all over the world
make it unfit for human consumption. The average life expectancy drops back to early
20th century levels.

7. Plagues
“2050: Bacterian infections get resistant due to antibiotics’ overuse: millions dead”
According to the World Health Organization, more people will die because of bacterian
infections than of cancer by 2050. Besides, in the event of a global flu or pneumonic
plague pandemic, we wouldn’t be much better prepared now than in the Middle Ages.

8. Environment
“2055: Overpopulation and patents of crops cause world famines”
Monsanto Ltd has substituted most natural crops with commercial patents worldwide
and food prices skyrocket. Sea level rises and billions lose their homes. Humankind is
the sole species ever known for destroying its own living environment.

9. Conflicts
“2062: World War 3: GAME OVER”

The Doomsday Clock represents the likelihood of a hypothetical global catastrophe as

“midnight” and hangs on a wall in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ office in the
University of Chicago. The countdown is now at “two and a half minutes to midnight”,
the second lowest since the testing of H-bomb in 1953.

C: Now, we beg you one minute of silence for Humankind.