ECON1005:

INTRODUCTORY STATISTICS

UNIT 3:
PART A – BASIC PROBABILITY

Lecturer: Marlon Tracey

 Outline
2

¨ Why study probability?

¨ Important terminologies

¨ Types of probability

¨ Classical definition of probability

¨ Probability laws
 Why study probability?
3

¨ We live in a world riddled with uncertainty; no human being knows with

certainty the outcome of tomorrow or whether a particular event will occur.
Note the following cases:
“You are more likely to lose from cash pot.”
“If you got fired, it is quite possible your girlfriend will cheat on you.”
“There is a good chance that a hurricane will hit this year and UN will send aid.”

¨ In fact, sometimes we place a number (a percentage or a fraction) on the

likelihood of these events occurring.

¨ In statistics, these uncertainties are precisely quantified and objectively

measured. Therefore, we calculate probabilities.

¨ Probabilities are numerical measures of uncertainty or likelihood or chance

of something occurring.
 Important terminologies I
4

¨ Random Experiment: any action, sequence of actions or an

investigation from which there may be several possible results.

¨ But the question is “which result will it be?” …. and that’s the
uncertainty we want to measure. Almost everything we do in life is
an experiment:

¤ Playing cash pot

¤ Checking up on your boyfriend sporadically
¤ Tossing a coin
¤ Trying to hit a target
¤ Re-electing JLP
¤ Educating yourself in the hope of getting a better job
 Important terminologies II
5

¨ Outcome: a result of any experiment.

¨ Sample space (represented by S): the set of all possible

outcomes.

¨ Event: a group of outcomes (within a sample space) that is of

interest to the experimenter. A collection of one or more
outcomes.

¨ An event describes a particular situation. An event is typically

represented by a capital letter, like A or B. The no. of
outcomes in any event, say A, is written as n(A).
 Types of Probability
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¨ Marginal probability: The likelihood that one event will occur.

For example, what is

¨ Joint probability: The likelihood that two or more events will

occur together or at the same time.

¨ Conditional probability: The likelihood that an event will

occur if another event has already occurred.
 Classical definition of Probability I
7

Figure 1
S If a sample space S consists of a certain
number of equally likely outcomes, and
A there is an event A in S, as in figure 1, the
4 probability of an event A, denoted as
P(A), is
1 5 n( A)
3 P( A) =
n( S )
That is, it is the number of ways A can
happen as a fraction of the number of all
6 2 possible ways. It is also called a marginal
probability.

Figure 1 above suggests that for a die S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}. If the event
A = {1, 3, 5} is the set of all odd numbers between 1 and 6 inclusive. What is
the probability of A, i.e. P(A)?
n( A) 3 1
P( A) = = =
n( S ) 6 2
 Classical definition of Probability II
8

Figure 2
S

Let A be prime numbers.

A 5 3 2 4 6
B
Let B be even numbers.
1

Also, if there are events A and B in sample space S, as in figure 2, the

probability of events A and B (otherwise read as A intersect B), denoted
as P(A ∩ B) , is
n( A ∩ B ) 1
P( A ∩ B ) = =
n( S ) 6
That is, it is the number of ways A and B can happen together as a
fraction of the number of all possible ways. It is also called a joint
probability.
 Example I
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1. One child is chosen at random from a class of 30

children. The children are numbered 01, 02,…29, 30.
Lucy is number 12. What is the probability that (a)
Lucy is chosen, (b) Lucy is not chosen and (c) a child
whose number is less than Lucy’s is chosen?

2. A counter is drawn from a box containing 10 red, 15

black, 5 green and 10 yellow counters. Find the
probability that the counter is (a) black, (b) not green
or yellow, (c) not yellow, (d) red or black or green, (e)
not blue.
 Probability Laws I
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¨ The probability of any event A, that is, P(A) must lie between 0 and
1 inclusive.

¤ If P(A) = 1, the event is certain.

¤ If P(A) = 0, the event is impossible.

¨ If persons that specialize in nursing are all females, then,

¤ P(a female is selected for a nursing procedure ) = 1

¤ P(a male is selected for a nursing procedure) = 0
 Probability Laws II
11

¨ In a class of 200 students, 50 students graduated with honours.

Let A be the event that a student graduates with honours. Then,
50
P ( A) =
200
¨ Let A ′ be the event that a student does not graduate with
honours. Then, 150
P ( A ′) =
200

50
¨ Which is the same as 1−
200

¨ Therefore, P( A′) = 1− P( A) where A ′ denotes “not A”

 Probability Laws III
12

¨ From an experiment, we may be interested in finding the

probability that one event A or another event B or both events
occurring (if possible), also written as P(A ∪ B) – read as “A
union B”.

¨ This is represented by the “yellow + grey + blue” area in the

Venn Diagram below:
S

A B

¨ This probability is found by using the formula:

P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B )
 Example II
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1. An ordinary die is thrown. Find the probability that the number obtained is
even or greater than 4?

2. In a group of 20 adults, 4 out of the 7 women and 2 out of the 13 men wear
glasses. What is the probability that a person chosen at random from the
group is a woman or someone who wears glasses?

3. In a street containing 20 houses, 3 households do not own a television set;

12 households have a black and white set and 7 households have a colour
and a black and white set. (i) Find the probability of owning at least one
television and (ii) the probability that a randomly chosen household owns a
colour television set.

4. For events A and B it is known that P(A)=2/3, P(A U B)=3/4 and

P(A ∩ B) =5/12. Find P(B).
 Probability Law IV
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¨ If from an experiment, an event A can occur or an event B can occur but A and
B cannot occur together, then A and B are mutually exclusive. This result is
shown in the figure.
S Let A be odd
numbers
A 1 3 2 4 B
5 6 Let B be even
numbers

¨ The likelihood of A and B occurring together is impossible, therefore,

P(A ∩ B) = 0, where A ∩ B is read as “A intersect B”.

¨ In this case, if we wanted to determine the P(A U B) then

P( A ∪ B) = P( A) + P(B)
 Example III
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1. A card is drawn at random from an ordinary pack of 52

playing cards. Find the probability that the card is a club
or a diamond.

2. The probability is 0.9 that a student attends their final

exam and the probability that a student cheats on their
final exam is 0.3.

¤ What is the probability that a student misses their final exam or cheats
on their exam?

¤ What is the probability that a student neither misses nor cheats on their
final exam.
 Probability Law V
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¨ If in an experiment, the occurrence of event A depends on the

occurrence of event B, then the probability of A, given that B
has already occurred is written as P(A | B) and computed as:
P( A ∩ B)
P( A | B) =
P(B)

¨ The above formula can be written as P( A ∩ B) = P( A | B) × P ( B )

¨ For example, to say that if you are a female doing statistics,

then you have a good chance of doing well at your exam, is a
matter of conditional probability.

¨ It means that P(doing well | female) is high.

 Example IV
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1. If P(A|B) = 2/5, P(B) = ¼, P(A) = 1/3, find (a) P(A ∩ B), (b) P(B|A).

2. The table below shows the number of vehicles involved in 400 accidents
and whether alcohol played a role.
 Probability Law VI
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¨ If in an experiment, event A occurs without being affected by

event B, then, the occurrence of A is independent of B. Therefore,
. ( A | B ) = P ( A) . The argument is the same vice versa.
P

¨ example if generally the probability of attending work is 0.9

For example:
for any particular day. And then one day a man in Iraq shoots
someone unrelated to you. Then, it is unlikely that since the Iraqi
shoots the person, the probability that you will attend work will
change from 0.9.

¨ Further, if P(A|B) = P(A) is true, then it must also be true that

P( A ∩ B ) = P ( A) × P( B)
 Example V
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1. A die is thrown twice. Find the probability of obtaining a 4 on the first

throw and an odd number on the second throw.

2. Two events A and B are such that P(A)=1/4, P(A|B)=1/2 and P(B|A)=2/3.
(a) Are A and B independent events? (b) Are A and B mutually exclusive
events? Find P(A ∩ B).

3. In a group of 120 girls, each is either blind or deaf or both; 80 are blind and
60 deaf. A girl is to be chosen at random from the group. Let “A” be the
event that ‘a blind girl is chosen’ and “B” be the event that ‘a deaf girl is
chosen’. (a) Calculate P(A ∩ B) and (b) State giving a reason, if you think A
and B are independent.

4. .