GOLD WEEKEND UPDATE 18 JULY 2011

First , let ' s t ake a look at a f ew Fibonacci t ime measurement s in Gold. Recent ly I produced a series of weekly chart s t hat suggest ed t hat a signif icant t urn in Gold may be seen in t he week of August 1 4 t h Now wit h some recent daily act ion t o measure of f of I t hink I can narrow t his range down t o a daily t ime period

This measure suggest s t hat a t urn may be possible near August 1 8 t h ( +/ - 1 day) , which is inside t he weekly measure of Aug. 1 4 t h t o Aug 2 0 t h. Since t his measure has 5 anchor point s t he relat ive degree of success is f airly high. Fibo t ime measurement s do not show direct ion, However, if t he t rend going int o a Fibo t ime sequence is down f or example, t he t urn is most likely t o t he upside. Fibo Time measurement s are not 1 0 0 % accurat e, just like every ot her bit of TA. However t hey do increase t he probabiliies f or success.

The trend in Gold is most certainly up into a Full Moon (July 15th) and a Fibo turn on July 18th

Both cycles suggest a top is either in place or soon will be. Further upside is likely to run into resistance at 1600, 1608ish and 1620ish. I would not be surprised to see this week open up with Asia taking PoG up a 1/2% incursion above 1600 (and 1.27% fibo ex-ret.)as a tease to (1608ish). Only to have the London and US market sell it down again, We'll see. The next line of resistance above 1608 is 1616 to 1620. A move above 1620 solidifies some EW counts, basically deciding between a B wave and a new Wave one impulse.

If Gold does respect this Full Moon and Fibo time measurement, I would expect a move down to test the 10 EMA and possibly 20 DMA:

Bullish support f or any ret race could be f ound at t he 1 0 EMA and 2 0 DMA. daily closes especially need t o st ay above t he 1 0 EMA. Also t he 1 % t o 3 % pull-back levels can of t en be reached while a t rend is impulsing. If a t op is in place f or example at 1 5 9 5 , a 1 % dip = 1 5 7 9 , 3 % = 1 5 4 7 . The current f ibo ret race levels ( 6 1 .8 % t o 2 3 .6 % are at 1 5 2 2 t o 1 5 6 6 respect ively. These measures would obviously move up some if t he t rend cont inues higher early t his week The ot her measure t o pay close at t ent ion t o is t he previous week' s open

1 5 4 2 was t he previous week' s open. This level becomes key f or t his week. If a OKR does occur, t his signal is bearish. To st ay bullish on t his weekly chart PoG needs t o close t his week above 1 5 4 2 . But as t he previous t op at 1 5 7 5 showed, if t he f ollowing week doesn' t f ollow t hrough t o t he downside, t he signal is of t en a dud. Wit h all t his dat a, we can est imat e a reasonable support zone f or any dip t o be inside t he 1 5 2 2 t o 1 5 7 9 zone. Wit h f irmer support bet ween 1 5 4 7 and 1 5 5 8 . An impulse down t o t he 6 1 .8 % f ibo ret race level of 1 5 2 2 or less t his week could put t his bull t rend in jeopardy .

Since 2 0 0 9 PoG has not had a daily close below t his import ant Long Term support by as much as a couple dollars. A weekly close below t his level would most cert ainly be bearish. No doubt , many prot ect ive st ops f or medium t erm and long t erm paper invest ment s are below t his 1 5 0 day moving average. A brief report on Silver - As my previous report suggest ed, 3 6 .8 5 is key EW support f or cont inued impulsing t o t he upside. Crit ical Support is at 3 3 .3 7 . Please underst and clearly, if 3 3 .3 7 is t aken out f or any reason, very st rong and deep downside possibilit ies open up. The great est ext reme t hat I can see being reached in a relat ive short period of t ime is $ 2 2 .0 0 . Just like t he 1 5 0 DMA f or Gold, t he 3 3 .3 7 level is likely t o be just as crucial
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