Averaging Forecasting Method

 a method that uses the average of all the past observations from a time series as a forecast of
the next value.
 The averaging forecasting method uses all the data points in the time series and simply
averages these points.

Forecast = Average of all data to date

Step 1: add formula for averaging forecasting

*nakalock yung first true value kasi diyan magstart yung range ng iaaverage, para kapag dinrag pababa
ndi magmomove yung cell reference($C$5) 

*same formula for forecasting error, MAD, MSE

the Moving-Average Forecasting method

 a method that uses the average of the last n observations from a time series as a forecast of the
next value
  The moving-average forecasting method averages the data for only the most recent time
periods.

n = Number of recent periods to consider as relevant for forecasting

Forecast = Average of last n values



Step1 : formula for Moving averages

*ilalagay ang formula ng forecast value sa tapat ng ikalimang true value dahil ang given na number of
period ay 4.

*AND/OR operators are used in comparing two conditions/expression. yung mga <,>,= ginagamit sya for
comparing 2 values and ang result is either true or false

Sample AND/ OR table

Condition 1 Condition2 AND OR

T T T T
T F F T
F T F T
F F F F
*sample conditions ISNUMBER(C9), 5>5
*applying relational operators

*applying AND/OR operators

ang gagawin niya is to check each condition kung true or false. pag nacheck na nya icocompare nya
nagyon yung result. using AND operator, it will only perform the true statement if and only if the result
of each condition/s ay true. pag nagkaron sya ng isang false result sa condition automatic false n sya.
refer to the given table.

kapag naman po OR, basta nagkaroon sya ng one true condition, matic na ang true statement yung
ipiperform nya. mag false lang sya if all conditions n maevaluate ay false.
 *formula explanation

if(AND(ISNUMBER(C9), B10>NumberOfPeriods))

 the arguments of the AND/OR operators are the conditions that you want to test.
 in the given formula the conditions are ISNUMBER(C9) and B10>NumberOfPeriods)
 it will check if the value of C9 is a number(return true, if it is a number, false naman if hindi
number) in our sample dataset the value of C9 is a number so it will return true.
 another condition to check is if the value of B10 is greater than the number of period which is 4.

 so since the value of B10 is 5 it is greater than 4, so it will return true.

 after checking the conditions we will now compare the conditions.
 since both conditions are true, it will return a true result, meaning it will perform the value of
true which is AVERAGE(OFFSET(D10,-NumberOfPeriods,-1,NumberOfPeriods,1))
 offset - function in Excel returns a cell or range of cells that is a specified number of rows and
columns from a cell or range of cells.
 Offset arguments (reference, rows, cols, height, width)
 reference =D10 (7027) eto yung pinaka parang point of origin
 rows= -NumberOfPeriods (-4), it means that it will return 4th row above the point of reference
pag positive po, pababa naman.. (cell ref now is D6)
 cols = -1, it means from the point of reference it will return 1 column to the left so in this case
from d10, it the cell ref will be in Column C, kadugtong nung rows, magigigng selected cell na is
C6.pag positive value, sa kanan naman yung movement nya

move 4 rows up from

move 1 column to the left D10
from
 
 height = 4, mean gaano kadaming rows yung sasakupin nya, or kukunin nya
 width = 1, gaano kadaming column naman yung kukunin nya,
 in the sample formula, it will get the average of 4 periods(from C6 to C9) and that will be the
value of D10. tapos sa next naman, mag momove yung reference natin from D10, magiging D11
naman, ang kukunin naman nya n average ay from C7 to C10.
 drag down the formula para maapply hanggang baba.
 NA() , is the value if false, meaning mag perform lang sya kapag hindi nasatidfied yung condition

Exponential Smoothing forecasting method

 a method that uses a weighted average of the last value from a time series and the last forecast
to obtain the forecast of the next value.
 provides a more sophisticated version of the moving-average method.
 It gives the greatest weight to the last month and then progressively smaller weights to the
older months.
 smoothing constant –a parameter of the exponential smoothing forecasting method that gives
the weight to be placed on the last value in the time series
  Exponential functions are used to assign exponentially decreasing weights over time.
 easily applied method for making some determination based on prior assumptions by the user,


Step 1: for time period 1

formula of exponential smoothing

where:
st = smoothed statistic, it is the simple weighted average of current observation x t
st-1 = previous smoothed statistic
α = smoothing factor of data; 0 < α < 1
t = time period
*this will be applied to the second exponential smoothing forecast
25 percent rule

 Since sales are relatively stable through the year except for a substantial increase during the
Christmas season, assume that each quarter’s call volume will be the same as the preceding
quarter, except for adding 25 percent for Quarter 4.
  Forecast for Quarter 2 = Call volume for Quarter 1
 Forecast for Quarter 3 = Call volume for Quarter 2
 Forecast for Quarter 4 = 1.25(Call volume for Quarter 3)
 Forecast for next Quarter 1 = (Call volume for Quarter 4) / 1.25

applying the rule, refer to the given image for the formula