Professional Documents
Culture Documents
July – 2022
2022 July
2
Brazil
6 th largest population
(212 million in 2020)
July – 2022
GDP per capita USD 6,796
(2020, current prices)
Sources: World Bank and UNCTAD
3
2 Structural Reforms
July – 2022
Where is Brazil? 4
350
Current Account FDI
BRICS Emerging Markets
300
250 102 93
75 88 78
65 74 69 69 70 71 71
57 61
200 38 46
2013
2017
2011
2012
2014
2015
2016
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
Brazil Russia* India China South Mexico Turkey Argentina Chile
Africa
Source: Moody’s,forecast for2022, except Russia2020 Source: CentralBank(FOCUS –July15th,2022)
July – 2022
1 The ratio is defined as the stock of official foreign reserves at the end of year t-1 as the denominator, and the residual maturity short-term debt (including original maturity short-term debt and
principal payments on long-term debt) falling due in year t, as the numerator
5
Where is Brazil?
Challenges to overcome
89,8 30,1
78,3 76,9
72,1 73,0 23,9
65,5
16,3 17,5
47,1
40,5 36,7 11,6 11,4
19,3 5,3 4,3
2,5 2,4
Brazil Brazil* Russia China India South Turkey Chile Mexico Argentina Brazil 2015 Brazil Russia India China South Mexico Turkey Argentina Chile
2015 Africa Africa
Source: S&P Ratings (Dec 2021). * National Treasury Forecast (Jun 2022) Source: S&P Ratings (Dec 2021)
July – 2022
Sources of fiscal unbalance before COVID-19 crisis 6
18,8 18,8 19,0 18,9 18,6 18,9 18,5 18,7 19,4 19,9 19,4 19,3 19,5 2.200
18,1 18,6 18,4
18,0
20,0
17,8
17,4 18,1 2.000
16,0
17,117,0
16,4
290
15,9 15,1 15,6 1.800 1.673
18,2 17,7 17,4 17,4 17,5 17,5 18,2 18,2 17,7
17,2 17,316,7
11,0
15,0
16,8 16,9 16,2 17,4 16,8 16,9 17,3 16,2 1.600 240
2,1 2,3 2,5 2,4 2,0 2,1 2,8 1,2 2,0 2,1 1,5 1,4
6,0
10,0
0,3 1.400 1.569
1,0
190
1.200
-0,4 -0,4 -0,7 -0,6 -0,2
-2,0 -2,6 -1,9 -1,8 -1,3 142
-4,0
1.000
140
5,0
800
-9,0
0,0
-10,0 -14,0
600 90
2011
2022
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2023
2024
2025
Primary balance Net revenue Total expenditure
Mandatory spending Mandatory ex covid Discretionary spending
Source: National Treasury, Brazilian Central Bank
Source: National Treasury
➢ Before the COVID-19 crisis the main pressures from public spending came from the pension systems deficit and payroll.
➢ Primary spending, which increased throughout the pandemic, has returned to pre-pandemic levels.
July – 2022
➢ Structural fiscal reforms such as the spending cap and the social security reform have supported the fiscal adjustment.
Social Security – Special Social Welfare Policy (RPPS) and 7
-1,00% -0,67%
-1,50%
-2,00%
-2,60%
-2,50% Private Sector Workers
July – 2022
Source: National Treasury and IBGE.
➢ The pension reform demonstrates a significant impact in the trajectory of social security spending.
Social Security Benefits – General Social Security System (% GDP) 8
July – 2022
9
562.264
590.843
494.752
493.272
493.422
507.204
517.998
536.114
534.233
545.241
580.352
585.119
602.695
624.095
627.427
632.485
634.157
630.689
607.833
599.852
583.674
571.125
July – 2022
Source: Painel Estatístico de Pessoal (dez/2021).
* Does not include Central Bank’s and Brazilian Intelligence Agency’s servants.
Personnel Expenses – Active and Inactive (% GDP) 10
4,2%
4,2% 4,0%
4,2% 4,2% 4,1%
4,0%
3,9%
Current spending and forecast
Growth pace 2015-2018 (7.5 % per year) 3,6%
3,4%
➢ Reduction in personnel expenses with active and inactive personnel results from the effort to
optimize expenses
July – 2022
➢ Complementary Law No. 173/2020:
➢ Prohibition of salary increases for public servants for 2 years
➢ Prohibition of salary readjustments paid in installments after the end of the administrative
mandate
Fiscal adjustment in Brazil has occurred through reduced spending 11
37 36 36 36
35 34 34 34
33
33 32 32 32 32
31 31 31
31 30 30 30
29 29 29
29
26
27 26
25
July – 2022
➢ Even during the pandemic, strong commitment to long-term
fiscal adjustment
Covid-19 impact on the IRS revenues 12
1.350
1.300
1.250
1.200
1.150
1.100
1.050
1.000
➢ Revenue managed by RFB, except for RGPS, a 12-months moving average, fell -11.21%, in real terms
July – 2022
between January and August 2020 and since then shows a recovery of 31% up to May 2022
➢ A meaningful share of this impact comes from measures related to taxes deferments
13
The COVID-19 impact on growth was meaningful (market forecasts)
7,5
5,8 6,1
5,1
4,6
4,0 4,0
3,1 3,2 3,0
1,9 1,8 2,00 2,00
1,4 1,1 1,3 1,2 1,20
0,5 0,76
-0,1
-3,5 -3,3
-3,9
2022*
2023*
2024*
2025*
2007
2018
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2019
2020
2021
July – 2022
➢ The economic growth has been recovering as of COVID-19 shock
14
10.6
3.1
Average G20 1.7 1.9 2.0
0.6 1.1
0.6 1.0
-0.9 -0.7
-1.3 -1.0
-2.1 -2.0 -1.8
-3.0 -2.9
-3.3 -3.3
July – 2022
Source: World Economic Outlook, FMI, 2022
15
Investments rebound
GFCF/GDP
19,0
Savings/GDP 17,8
14,6
12,2
July – 2022
Source: National Bureau of Statistics (IBGE)
16
Consolidated public sector primary
balance back on upward trend after
% GDP
-2.9 -2.7 -3.2 -3.0
-3.5 -3.6
-4.4
-5.2 -5.4
-6.0 -5.8
-7.0 -6.8 -6.7
-7.8
-9.0 -9.4
-10.2
-13.6
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
Source: Central Bank.
Projections: LOA 2022.
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Primary Balance Target (BRL Actual (BRL Target (BRL Actual (BRL Target (BRL Actual (BRL Primary Balance
BRL bn % GDP BRL bn % GDP BRL bn % PIB
bn) bn) bn) bn) bn) bn)
July – 2022
Central Government -139,00 -88,89 -124,10 -745,27 -139,40 -35,87 Central Government -66,90 -0,69 -144,97 -1,52 -102,20 -1,00
State-owned companies 3,50 11,83 -3,81 3,57 -1,40 2,91 State-owned companies -2,60 -0,03 -4,75 -0,05 -5,08 -0,05
Subnational Government 10,50 15,19 9,00 38,75 39,50 97,69 Subnational Government -2,60 -0,03 -0,10 0,00 1,50 0,01
Public Sector -132,00 -61,87 -118,91 -702,95 -101,30 64,73 Public Sector -72,10 -0,74 -149,82 -1,57 -105,78 -1,04
Source: BCB. Forecasts: ME, LOA 2022 (2022) LDO 2022 (2023 and 2024).
The projections are based on a real GDP growth of 1.5% in 2021, and 2.5% in 2023 and 2024.
Forecasts for the General Government Gross Debt (GGGD) and 17
70 65,5
60 64,9
51,5 62,5 63,7
59,9 60,9
50 57,2
51,4 52,8
40 46,1
30 35,6
30,5
20
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
Average
Parameters 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
2022-2031
Exchange rate - year-end (BRL/USD) 5,58 5,00 5,04 5,00 5,02 5,08 5,12 5,15 5,17 5,17 5,17 5,09
Real GDP Growth (annual %) 4,5 1,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,5 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,2 2,1 2,24
GDP Deflator (annual %) 11,5 10,2 6,4 4,8 4,4 4,4 4,1 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 4,83
CPI ( annual %) 10,1 7,9 3,6 3,0 3,0 3,0 2,7 2,5 2,2 2,0 2,0 3,19
July – 2022
Selic rate, average (annual %) 4,3 12,2 11,3 8,1 7,1 6,9 6,5 6,0 5,5 5,0 4,9 7,35
Selic rate, year-end (annual %) 1,9 13,2 9,2 7,4 6,9 6,9 6,4 5,9 5,4 4,9 4,9 7,1
Public Sector Primary Surplus (% GDP) 0,75 -0,10 -0,30 0,20 0,70 1,20 0,80 1,50 1,80 2,10 2,40 1,0
Interest, Public Sector Net Debt (% GDP) 5,2 6,4 6,6 5,9 5,5 5,4 5,2 4,9 4,6 4,3 4,1 5,3
Source: Macroeconomic parameters - Economic Policy Secretary, Ministry of Economy (May/21). Fiscal parameters: 2022 - Annual Budget Law 2022; 2023-2030 -National Treasury.
18
BBB stable
BBB negative
BBB- positive
500
BBB- stable BBB- stable Investment grade (BBB-)
BBB- negative
BB+ positive
200
100
0
Jul/04
Jul/05
Jul/06
Jul/07
Jul/08
Jul/09
Jul/10
Jul/11
Jul/12
Jul/13
Jul/14
Jul/15
Jul/16
Jul/17
Jul/18
Jul/19
Jul/20
Jul/21
Jul/22
Jan/05
Jan/06
Jan/07
Jan/08
Jan/09
Jan/10
Jan/11
Jan/12
Jan/13
Jan/14
Jan/15
Jan/16
Jan/17
Jan/18
Jan/19
Jan/20
Jan/21
Jan/22
July – 2022
Source: S&P and Bloomberg
19
Inflation - IPCA (% YoY) 4,52 10,06 7,54 5,20 3,30 3,00 3,00
CB Year-End Interest Rate (% YoY) 2,00 9,25 13,75 10,75 8,00 7,50 7,50
Year-End Exchange Rate (BRL/USD) 5,20 5,58 5,13 5,10 5,05 5,14 5,20
Current Account Balance (USD billion) -24,07 -27,93 -18,00 -30,60 -40,00 -40,39 -43,59
Foreign Direct Investment (USD billion) 37,79 46,44 57,20 60,50 70,00 70,91 71,40
Primary Balance (% GDP) -9,41 0,75 0,10 -0,20 0,00 0,40 0,30
Net Public Sector Debt (% GDP) 62,54 57,23 59,23 63,50 63,00 66,20 68,89
July – 2022
20
2 Structural Reforms
July – 2022
Structural Reforms 21
✓ Spending Cap
✓ Labor Reform
More flexibility for the labor market
July – 2022
✓ Central Bank Independence
✓ Bankruptcy law
Source: National Treasury
Structural Reforms – in Progress 22
✓ Administrative Reform;
✓ PL 3,729/2004 - Environmental Licensing (approved by
the Lower House);
✓ Bill 414/2021 - Regulatory Framework for the
Electricity Sector;
✓ PL 6726/16 – Deals with public servants’ salaries
(approved by the Lower House); and
✓ Bill 591/2021 - Privatization of the Post Office;
July – 2022
legal regime for exploration and production of oil
and natural gas to be adopted in the pre-salt
auctions; Fonte: Secretaria do Tesouro Nacional
Reform Agenda – Infralegal Scope 23
✓ Regulation of the new tax framework focused on public debt (Constitutional Amendment 109/21):
Synergy between the budget pieces of all entities: calculation indicators and convergence trajectory. Adjustment measures and
asset sales planning (arts. 163, VIII; 164-A; 165, §2 of the Federal Constitution).
July – 2022
Modernization and improvement of Law 4,320/64 to reflect new operations and forms of state action.
EU/Mercosur agreement
Announced on 06/28/2019
Benefits:
July – 2022
➢ Expanding the opportunities of agriculture exports;
➢ Supporting the OECD accession ;
➢ The agreement show the Brazilian commitment to the Paris Agreement, 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda
and to the Fundamental Principles of the International Labour Organisation (ILO). Source: WB - http://datatopics.worldbank.org/esg/
New Regulatory Framework for Sanitation 25
Almost half of the population (about 100 million people) has no sewage collection.
In June 2020, the Congress enacted the new regulatory framework for basic sanitation.
Universalization of water and sewage services by 2033 would require BRL 600 billion in investments.
Currently, the private sector accounts for about 6% of the Brazilian sanitation market, but it has been responsible
for 20% of investments.
Characteristics which will also support the OECD
Benefits in: Through: accession and EU/Mercosur agreement
➢ Health ➢ Regulatory uniformity to the sector
July – 2022
➢ Education ➢ More competitiveness in the sector
➢ Productivity ➢ More private investments
➢ Tourism ➢ Better governance creating the Federal Interministerial Committee on Basic Sanitation (CISB)
Sustainable Development Goals: Brazil’s Performance
26
July – 2022
Source: https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/static/profiles/pdfs/SDR-2021-brazil.pdf
27
July – 2022
Challenges remain Moderately improving
Significant challenges remain
Major challenges remain Stagnating
2 Structural Reforms
July – 2022
29
The goal of the Federal Public Debt management is to efficiently supply the borrowing needs
of the federal government at the lowest cost in the long term, respecting the maintenance of
prudent risk levels, and to contribute to the development of the Brazilian bond market.
July – 2022
base;
• Increasing outstanding debt average
• Maintenance of the liquidity reserve
maturity;
above its prudent level.
30
July – 2022
Average Life (years) 5.15 5.03 - -
*Includes domestic (BRL 5,475.96 billion - May/22) and external debt (BRL 226.27 billion - May/22) managed by the National Treasury
Diversified Public Debt Composition – Low FX risk exposure 31
100%
80% 41%
Floating Rate May 22
70%
64.5%
60%
50%
Inflation Linked
40%
30%
59%
May 22
20%
35.5%
Fixed Rate
10%
0%
Nov-05
Nov-06
Nov-07
Nov-08
Nov-09
Nov-10
Nov-11
Nov-12
Nov-13
Nov-14
Nov-15
Nov-16
Nov-17
Nov-18
Nov-19
Nov-20
Nov-21
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
May-11
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
May-19
May-20
May-21
May-22
July – 2022
Fixed Rate Inflation Linked Floating Rate Exchange Rate
Source: National Treasury.
32
30,2% 27,3% 24,8% 24,6% 22,3% 25,0% 25,5% 24,6% 22,2% 17,0% 16,9% 16,3% 18,7% 27,6% 21,0% 23,4%
July – 2022
Percentage Maturing in 12 Months Average Maturity (years) Average Life (years)
8,0
% p.y.
150 142
128 7,0
125 110 114
107 6,0
101
100 80 5,0
78
66 4,0
66
47 44 3,0
50
2,0
11 6 1,0
- 0,0
Out-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jan-27
Jan-29
Jan-31
Jan-33
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
Abr-22
Abr-23
Abr-24
LTN On the run LTN Off the run NTN-F On the run NTN-F Off the run Taxa LTN Taxa NTN-F
July – 2022
34
Outstanding Amount and Yields: NTN-B
171
150 8,0
146 5,62
6,73
5,975,74 5,86 5,96
5,60 5,62 5,63
123 5,71 5,80
6,0
BRL bn
% p.y.
100 116 108
92 93
79 4,0
50
2,0
26
13 8
- 0,0
Aug-22
Aug-24
Aug-26
Aug-28
Aug-30
Aug-32
Aug-40
Aug-60
May-25
May-23
May-27
May-35
May-45
NTN-B On the run NTN-B Off the run Yield
July – 2022
Source: Anbima and National Treasury (June 24th, 2022)
Domestic Federal Public Debt (DFPD) - Holders 35
18,9%
20%
15%
IOF: 9%
10% 0%
(Jun/1
3)
5%
0%
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jan-14
Jan-21
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
Jan-22
Source: National Treasury.
July – 2022
Note: FPD statistics are available at https://www.tesourotransparente.gov.br/publicacoes/monthly-
debt-report-mdr-ingles/2022/1
➢ Investor base is diversified, which contributes to the reduction of risks associated with the FPD.
36
Domestic Federal Public Debt (DFPD) - Holders
Inflation Linked Fixed Rate Floating Rate Others Inflation Linked Fixed Rate Floating Rate Others
July – 2022
• Financial institutions portfolio: 42% in fixed rate bonds
• Pension Fund portfolio: 64% in Inflation-linked bonds, with the longest duration
• Mutual Fund’s portfolio: 62% in floating rate bonds
37
Disclaimer: The information on this presentation is issued by the Brazilian Debt Management Office (DMO) for
informational purposes. It does not contain and is not an invitation or offer to buy or sell securities .Translation
of the original text of this document is provided only for the convenience of the reader. While reasonable care
has been taken to ensure the authenticity of the translation. its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Reliance upon
this translation shall be at the reader's own risk. Under no circumstances. shall the Brazilian National Treasury.
July – 2022
its officers. employees or agents be liable to the reader or anyone else for any inaccuracy. error. inconsistency.
omission. deletion. defect or alteration of the content of the translation from the original Portuguese text.
regardless of cause. or for any damages resulting therefore. The original Portuguese text of this document is
the only official version. which can be found in http://www.tesouro.fazenda.gov.br/en/homeen. In the event
of any discrepancy or contradiction between the Portuguese and translated version. the Portuguese version
shall prevail.