NO OF DAYS

PRECEDENCE ACTIVITY
TASK
ACTIVITY DURATION
MOSTS
OPTIMISTIC PESSIMISTIC
LIKELY VARIANCE FLOAT
1 None 2 4 3 3 0.11 0
2 1 1 4 3 3 0.25 0
3 1 4 6 3 4 0.11 5
4 2 6 8 5 6 0.11 0
5 2,3,4 2 4 3 3 0.11 0
6 3,4,5 2 4 3 3 0.11 0
7 3,4,6 5 5 4 4 0.00 0

variance = 0.69
st.dev= 0.833333333
z 3.6

the project float =25-22=3days

the probability of finishing the project ontime
scenario 1 the probability of completing the project in 22 days

z=(22-22)/0.8333=0 from ztables =50%

P(Z) 50%

scenario 2 the probability of completing the project in 25 days

z=(25-22)/0.8333=3.6 from ztables =99.9

P(Z) 100%