Managing Project Uncertainty

Erin Berglund

OGL 321

Ben Pandya

March 21, 2022

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The most challenging and most important part of project management is to

mitigate risks and uncertainty in projects. Because of this, it is very important for the

project manager to understand how to confront uncertainty. He/She can do this by

creating a risk averse plan. This type of plan creates a breakdown of possible risks to

the project and helps the project manager navigate through these adverse possibilities.

The risk averse plan also makes it possible to see new threats and creates a way to

navigate past them. In Managing Project Uncertainty by David Cleden he outlines four

possible modes for confronting uncertainty. These include suppress, adapt, detour, and

reorient. If the right steps are taken the project will stay on track and possible risks will

be reverted.

The first step in preventing possible adverse reactions in your project is to

suppress them. This is defined as “taking pre-emptive steps to reduce overall levels of

uncertainty before the problems occur”. Suppression is the most used method of

managing uncertainty because it reduces the uncertainty at the source. The

suppression technique works by identifying the sources of uncertainty, forecasting future

scenarios, analyzing potential threats, converting areas of uncertainty into specific

problems, and finally developing a tactical plan to resolve the issues. Although this

technique is very widely used. It does have some unfavorable consequences. For

example, It can be very difficult to assess problems at the source. And it may be a very

costly approach. Large projects and some with co-dependencies may find it difficult to

suppress all possible areas of uncertainty (Clenden).

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The next technique for preventing uncertainty is adaptation. Adaptation is an

approach where the project manager permits some uncertainty in the project but is

prepared to adjust the approach to limit the effects from the most damaging aspects of

uneasiness in the project. The uncertainty of the project is closely monitored to catch

early warning signs. This is done by having good information-gathering and forewarning

systems in place. Understanding the key objectives in order to stay focused on what

needs to be accomplished. And finally acting rapidly and decisively in order to continue

steering your project toward its goals. The adaptation method can be very pragmatic

and management must be agile and flexible to ensure the impending problems are

handled correctly and efficiently.

The next option when managing risk in projects is to detour. “Avoiding the source

of uncertainty means that the consequences (that is the expected outcomes) are no

longer relevant to the project (Clenden).” This option has some great advantages: it

prevents uncostly precautions and prevents negative repercussions. The detour

approach has an emphasis on reaching a clear understanding of project objectives,

being creative in identifying planning options, evaluating and comparing the risks and

benefits of alternative approaches, and finally seizing the initiative when better options

present themselves (Clenden). This risk management plan isn’t always reliable. Some

problems are simply unavoidable or the result would be too costly. This approach also

only works for issues that are already known. Some issues are impossible to spot

before they occur. When this arises, it is important to use a different form of risk

management.
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The final technique to managing project uncertainty is the reorientation approach.

The reorientation approach focuses on modifying a set of objectives to prevent

uncertainty. This approach is most used in dynamic projects where the uncertainty of

risk can lead to total failure. The only option to alleviate the uncertainty is to redefine

project goals and reorient the project to abate the unpredictable.This approach focus on

understanding the nature of the threat, being honest about chances of success and

failure, keeping an open mind on redefining objectives, and finally being persuasive in

seeking the agreement of stakeholders to reorient the project. This technique, if used

correctly, can create a thorough blueprint to alleviate problems and excess work in the

future.

Regardless of the type of risk litigation technique used, problem solving is a

critical characteristic all project managers should express. Problem solving can be

broken down into two parts, problem-framing and solution-finding. Problem-framing acts

by reconstructing a particular area of uncertainty into a set of specific problems. By

breaking these problems down we are able to assess the impact they have on the

project and solutions to resolve it. Problem framing is constructed on the idea that we

cannot find answers if we do not understand the problem. Once a thorough breakdown

of questions that need to be answered are defined, the first step to managing

uncertainties is complete. Solution-finding on the other hand is characterized by finding

answers to resolve the uncertainties. This means choosing the best solution to

problems that arise and mitigation techniques to solve it.

Blog Posts
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Risk assessment is a critical part to project planning, by ensuring all components

that may derail the project are accounted for, you are better able to manage the project.

In a blog post by Eight to Late titled Risk Analysis he breaks down the importance of

risk planning. He states, “this process begins by identifying and classifying risks. Once

this is done, one determines the probability and impact of each risk. Then, based on

priorities and resources available (again determined by the organization’s risk appetite)

one develops strategies to mitigate the risks that are significant from the organization’s

perspective.” This ensures a strong plan is in place for when risks do arise. Another

blog that caught my eye regarding risk analysis is by Mike Shuttleworth titled Risk

Response Planning- Doing it the SMART way. He created an acronym for setting goals

and objectives in career development plans, the SMART acronym. SMART stands for

Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic, and Time-Bound. “When it comes to

managing risks, using the S.M.A.R.T principle is an especially useful technique to help

ensure the effectiveness of proposed risk response plans (Shuttleworth)”.

Personal Takeaways

Researching the importance of managing project uncertainty has helped me gain

insight into the benefits of thorough planning and risk litigation. Without using these

techniques the project can be derailed or may fail altogether. In my future projects I will

most definitely use these techniques to ensure I have accounted for all unforeseen

events that will impact the project. I agree with the assertions from this module and find

them to all be very beneficial in proper project planning. There were a few components

from this week's reading that relate to the Harvard Simulation from this week's module.
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For example, in the simulation there was a sudden unexpected change in project

schedule. It was shortened to 12 weeks instead of the projected 23. This resulted in

stress to the workers and a need for an improvised plan. If there was already a plan in

place for a change in schedule such as this. There would already be an improvised plan

and risk litigation for meeting the new targets. A time I remember utilizing project risk

techniques was planning for my brother's wedding. I was in charge of scheduling the

band. I had scheduled one band I knew he would enjoy and had another on the back

burner in case something happened a few weeks before the wedding. A week before

the wedding the initial band canceled and I quickly contacted my back up to ensure they

could fill in. Because I had already created a backup plan it was an easy fix. Managing

project uncertainty is a crucial part to project management and ensures all foreseen and

unforeseen events will be managed swiftly.

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References

Awati, K. (2021, September 14). Risk Analysis. Eight to Late.

https://eight2late.wordpress.com

Cleden, D. (2016). Managing project uncertainty. Taylor & Francis Group.

Powell, R.A., and D.M. Buede. 2006. “Decision-making for successful product

development,” Project management journal 37.1

Powell, Robert Col. Buede, Dennis. (2009). Project Manager’s Guide to Making

Successful Decisions. Management Concepts, Inc.. Retrieved from

https://app.knovel.com/hotlink/toc/id:kpPMGMSD08/project-manager-s-guide/proj

ect-manager-s-guide

Shuttleworth, M. (2018, May 24). Risk Response Planning – Doing it the SMART way.

Project Risk Management.

https://www.project-risk-manager.com/blog/risk-response-planning/