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CLIMATE CHANGE AND IT’S EFFECT

INTRODUCTION

1. Climate change is a change in the pattern of weather, and related changes in

oceans, land surfaces and ice sheets, occurring over time scales of decades or
longer. Weather is the state of the atmosphere—its temperature, humidity, wind,
rainfall and so on—over hours to weeks. It is influenced by the oceans, land surfaces
and ice sheets, which together with the atmosphere form what is called the ‘climate
system’. Climate, in its broadest sense, is the statistical description of the state of the
climate system.

2. It describes changes in the state of the atmosphere over time scales ranging

from decades to millions of years. These changes can be caused by processes
inside the Earth, forces from outside (e.g. variations in sunlight intensity) or, more
recently, human activities. Ice ages are prominent examples. Climate change is any
significant long-term change in the weather of a region (or the whole Earth) over a
significant period of time. Climate change is about abnormal variations to the climate,
and the effects of these variations on other parts of the Earth. Examples include the
melting of ice caps at the South Pole and North Pole. These changes may take tens,
hundreds or perhaps millions of years.

3. Climate change is a change in the statistical properties of the climate system

that persists for several decades or longer—usually at least 30 years. These
statistical properties include averages, variability and extremes. Climate change may
be due to natural processes, such as changes in the Sun’s radiation, volcanoes or
internal variability in the climate system, or due to human influences such as
changes in the composition of the atmosphere or land use.

4. Weather can be forecast with considerable skill up to about a week in

advance. Short term fluctuations in climate, such as droughts, can be predicted with
limited skill from season to season. In contrast, changes in the long-term statistics of
the climate system (climate change) can be predicted if caused by long-term
influences that are known or predictable.

5. Bangladesh is likely to be among the countries that are the worst affected by
climate change. With the rise of temperature across the globe floods, tropical
cyclones, storm surges and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe.
Rise of sea level would cause flood and intrusion of saline water into rivers across
the southern belt. Rainfall is predicted to be higher and more erratic which would

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increase frequency of flood. All these will seriously affect the agriculture, food,
fishery and livestock, forest and above all will degrade humanity.

AIM

6. The aim of this paper is to analyze climate change and its effects.

CLIMATE CHANGE

Definition and Terminology

7. Climate change. Climate change means the difference in the Earth's

global climate or in regional climates over time. Climate change is now a major
concern especially in colder countries. Climate change can be warmer or colder.
This includes global warming and global cooling. Small changes in the average
temperature of the planet can translate to large and potentially dangerous shifts in
climate and weather. This shift is measured in the features of average weather such
as temperature, wind, precipitation etc.

8. Global Warming. The effects of global warming or climate

damage include far-reaching and long-lasting changes to the natural environment,
to ecosystems and human societies caused directly or indirectly by human emissions
of greenhouse gases. It also includes the economic and social changes which stem
from living in a warmer world.

9. Greenhouse effect. The Greenhouse effect is a leading factor in

keeping the Earth warm because it keeps some of the planet's heat that would
otherwise escape from the atmosphere out to space. The study report on the
Greenhouse gases and their impact on Global warming. Without the greenhouse
effect the Earth's average global temperature would be much colder and life on Earth
as we know it would be impossible. Greenhouse gases include water vapor, CO2,
methane, nitrous oxide (N2O) and other gases. Carbon dioxide (CO2) and other
greenhouse gases turn like a blanket, gripping Infra-Red radiation and preventing it
from escaping into outer space. The clear effect of the greenhouse gases is the
stable heating of Earth's atmosphere and surface, thus, global warming. The ability
of certain gases, greenhouse gases, to be transparent to inbound visible light from
the sun, yet opaque to the energy radiated from the earth is one of the best still
events in the atmospheric sciences. The existence of greenhouse effect is what
makes the earth a comfortable place for life.

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Causes of Climate Change

10. On the broadest scale, the rate at which energy is received from the Sun and
the rate at which it is lost to space determine the equilibrium temperature and climate
of Earth. This energy is distributed around the globe by winds, ocean currents and
other mechanisms to affect the climates of different regions.

11. Factors that can shape climate are called climate forcings or "forcing
mechanisms". These include processes such as variations in solar radiation,
variations in the Earth's orbit, variations in the albedo or reflectivity of the continents,
atmosphere, and oceans, mountain-building and continental drift and changes
in greenhouse gas concentrations. There are a variety of climate change
feedbacks that can either amplify or diminish the initial forcing. Some parts of the
climate system, such as the oceans and ice caps, respond more slowly in reaction to
climate forcing, while others respond more quickly. There are also key threshold
factors which when exceeded can produce rapid change.

12. Climate change can either occur due to external forcing or due to internal
processes. Internal unforced processes often involve changes in the distribution of
energy in the ocean and atmosphere, for instance changes in the thermohaline
circulation. External forcing mechanisms can be either anthropogenic (e.g. increased
emissions of greenhouse gases and dust) or natural (e.g., changes in solar output,
the earth's orbit, volcano eruptions).

13. Causes of climate change are of natural and human induced. Solar variation,
solar cycle, orbital variations, mountain-building, continental drift, changes in
greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean current, volcanic eruption and ice caps are
the major causes of climate change.

14. Human Influences.

a. Increase Greenhouse Gas Emission. Most greenhouse gases are

extremely effective at absorbing heat escaping from the earth and keeping it
trapped. By comparison, the atmospheric greenhouse gases that cause the
earth's natural greenhouse effect total less than 1% of the atmosphere. But
that tiny amount increases the earth's average surface temperature from -
19°C to +14°C - a difference of about 33°C. A little bit of greenhouse gas goes
a long way.

b. Human Emission of Carbon Dioxide. The world is fighting today to

limit the emission of carbon di-oxide (CO 2) mostly through fossil fuels. Human

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emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) currently amount to roughly 28 billion tons

per year. Over the next century human emissions will increase the
concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from about 0.03% today to
almost certainly 0.06%, a double.

c. Industrialization. The transition of an economy from primarily

agrarian to one based mainly on manufacturing and industry. Industrialization
is generally thought to be a sign of a growing economy, and is associated
with income growth, urbanization, and improvements in health, lifespan,
and standard of living for the populace.“ As countries in Asia go
through industrialization, they are now contending with the amount of pollution
factories cause as a byproduct of production. ”

d. Deforestation. Deforestation is the large-scale removal of trees in

the forests. Trees are usually removed to make way for agriculture, roads,
and urban development. Deforestation can also occur due to the harvest of
natural resources like timber and palm oil. Not all Deforestation is intentional
as some cases can be caused by a combination of natural and human factors
like wildfires. Deforestation has had serious environmental effects. While
forests still make up 30 percent of the Earth, each year an estimated 18
million acres (or 7.3 million hectares) of forest are lost to Deforestation
practices. This has caused land and soil damage while also displacing plants
and animals that rely on the ecosystem created by forests. At the same time,
the removal of trees means more greenhouse gasses being released into the
atmosphere as trees play an important part in the Carbon Cycle as absorbers
of carbon dioxide. The removal of trees can also impact livelihoods because
people depend on forests for shelter, water, fuel, food security and jobs.
Protecting our forests is extremely important in order to limit the impact of
these effects and ensure a sustainable future.

e. Urbanization. The entire process of the formation and growth of

towns. The change in a country or region whenever its populace migrates
from rural to urban areas. The percentage of a region's populace that live in
cities and places; the price from which this percentage keeps growing. The
reasons are as follows: First, the growing economy, increasing urbanization
rate and irrational changes such as excessive intake of some nutrients
(carbohydrates, fat, salt, etc.) and less exercise. Due to high urbanization
rate, rapid population growth, and increasing living standards, there is now a
continuing demand for new commercial buildings offering higher comforts,
especially energy-intensive cooling systems.

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f. Ozone layer depletion. Ozone molecules in the atmosphere

provide us with important protection from the rays of the sun. Specifically,
these molecules are good at absorbing certain ultraviolet rays that can cause
sunburn and skin cancer. It turns out that certain types of molecules can
cause a chemical reaction when they come in contact with ozone molecules.
This causes the ozone to break up and become unable to absorb ultraviolet
light. The main molecules that are destroying the ozone layer are called
chlorofluorocarbons or CFCs. Chlorofluorocarbons are a group of chemicals
which are made up of only chlorine, fluorine, carbon, and hydrogen. They
were first used as refrigerants to keep things cold. A lot of people considered
CFCs miracle chemicals. Eventually they were used in a variety of products
including air conditioners, spray cans, fire extinguishers, and in manufacturing
foams. In 1974 scientists Sherry Rowland and Mario Molina discovered the
link between the depletion of the ozone layer and CFCs. CFCs became
somewhat regulated, but it wasn't until 1987 that a treaty was formed called
Montreal Protocol to try and stop the manufacture and use of CFCs
throughout the world. CFCs were to be banned and eliminated in developing
countries by the year 2000. Because CFCs last so long, the ozone layer will
likely continue to thin for some time in the future. This will cause an increased
risk of sunburn and skin cancer. Skin cancer can be very dangerous. For this
reason, you should always wear sunscreen to protect your skin when you are
outside in the sun for a long time. Strong ultraviolet rays can also damage
your eyes. You can protect them by wearing sunglasses. There isn't much we
can do about the CFCs that were released prior to the ban, but there are
some things we can do:

Effect of climate change

15. Climate change will lead to changes in many aspects of weather, such as
wind patterns, the amount and type of precipitation, and the types and frequency of
severe weather events. Such climate change could have far-reaching and/or
unpredictable environmental, social and economic consequences.

16. The global sea level could rise due to several factors including melting ice and
glaciers. Rising sea levels could damage coastal regions through flooding and
erosion. The climate of various regions could change too quickly for many plant and
animal species to adjust. Harsh weather conditions, such as heat waves and
droughts, could also happen more often and more severely. Melting ice caps in
Antarctica and Greenland have most likely led sea level to rise by 3.1 millimeters per
year between 1993 and 2003, according to IPCC. The rise is expected to reach 15 to
95 centimeters by 2100.

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17. Climate change could also affect health and well-being. Many larger cities
could experience a significant rise in the number of very hot days. Air pollution
problems would increase, placing children, the elderly and people suffering from
respiratory problems at greatest risk of health effects. Increases in molds and pollens
due to warmer temperatures could also cause respiratory problems such as asthma.

18. Ice melting is one of the most evident consequences is melting ice – the
melting of the cryosphere, those portions of Earth’s surface where water is
in solid form, including ice caps, glaciers, and permafrost (those areas where soil is
permanently frozen). According to predictions, Arctic ice could completely melt
during the hottest periods of the year by the end of the century. The cryosphere
naturally plays a crucial role in the global climate system and a change in its
extension could cause a change in the system itself. Fragile ecosystems like oceans,
mountains and wetlands could be damaged permanently.

19. Ocean acidification increased levels of CO2 in the atmosphere will also lead
to ocean acidification, causing irreparable damage to marine ecosystems – like
the Great Barrier Reef that is a UNESCO heritage site as it is home to more than
“400 types of coral, 1,500 species of fish and 4,000 types of mollusk. It also holds
great scientific interest as the habitat of species such as the dugong and the large
green turtle, which are threatened with extinction”. Professional services firm Deloitte
estimated the economic value of this treasure: 56 billion Australian dollars, and
64,000 jobs.

IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN BANGLADESH

20. Bangladesh, being one of the 49 LDGs is likely to be among the countries that
are the worst affected by climate change. Floods, tropical cyclones, storm surges
and droughts are likely to become more frequent and severe in the coming years.
The country is on the pipeline to become a middle-income country by 2020. Over the
last 20 years the economy has grown at over 6% 1, the population growth rate has
declined from around 2.9% per annum in 1974 to 1.4% 2 in 2006 and food production
has increased three-fold. Climate change will severely challenge the country's ability
to achieve the high rates of economic growth. The likely impacts are:

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21. Flood. Most of Bangladesh lies in the delta of three of the largest
rivers in the world – the Brahmaputra, the Ganges and the Meghna. These rivers
have a combined peak discharge in the flood season of 180,000 m 3 /sec. and carry
about two billion tons of sediment each year. Two-thirds of the country is less than 5
meters above sea level and is susceptible to river and rainwater flooding and, in
lower lying coastal areas, to tidal flooding during storms. Once in every 4 to 5 years,
however, there is a severe flood that may cover over 60% of the country and cause
loss of life and substantial damage to infrastructure, housing, agriculture and
livelihoods.

22. Cyclone. A severe tropical cyclone hits Bangladesh, on average, every 3

years. These storms generally form in the months just before and after the monsoon
and intensify as they move north over the warm waters of the Bay of Bengal. They
are accompanied by high winds of over 150 kph and can result in storm surges up to
seven meters high, resulting in extensive damage to houses and high loss of life to
humans and livestock in coastal communities. In recent years, general cyclonic
activity in the Bay of Bengal has become more frequent due to warming up of
atmosphere. UNDP has identified Bangladesh to be the most vulnerable country in
the world to tropical cyclones and the sixth most vulnerable country to floods.

23. Rise of Sea Level. The IPCC also forecasts that global warming will result in
sea level rises of between 0.18 and 0.79 meters in next century. Rise of sea level
leading to submergence of low lying coastal areas and saline water intrusion up
coastal rivers and into groundwater aquifers, reducing freshwater availability;
damage to the Sundarbans mangrove forest, a World Heritage site with rich
biodiversity; and drainage congestion inside coastal polders, which will adversely
affect agriculture.

24. Degradation Agriculture. IPCC estimates that, by 2050, rice

production in Bangladesh could decline by 8% and wheat by 32%. Each of these
changes is likely to seriously affect agriculture (crops, livestock and fisheries).
Although agriculture now accounts for only 20% of GDP, over 60% of people depend
on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihoods. The higher temperatures and
changing rainfall patterns, coupled with increased flooding, rising salinity in the
coastal belt and droughts are likely to reduce crop yields and crop production.

25. Degradation Health. Shortage of safe drinking water is likely to become

more pronounced, especially in the coastal belt and in drought-prone areas in the
north-west of the country. Increasingly saline drinking water may also result in health
hazards, especially coastal area. It will be important to implement public health
measures (immunization; improved drainage, sanitation and hygiene) to reduce the

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spread of these diseases and to improve access to health services for those
communities likely to be worst affected by climate change.

CONCLUSION

26. Climate change is the greatest challenge of the world today. If the global
temperature rises by 2.0 degree in the polar region it could rise by 10 degree in the
Gulf Stream. Reduction in concentration of GHG in the atmosphere is the main focus
of UNFCCC. Although USA, a signatory to UNFCCC but has not ratified to Kyoto
Protocol, is responsible for 36.1% of 1990 emission level of GHG. USA has its own
emission reduction policy and by 2020 they will reduce CO 2 to 2005 emission level.
Rest 39 Annex I countries that are responsible for 63.9% of 1990 emission, have
committed to reduce by themselves 5.4% GHG by 2012.

27. Bangladesh by geographic location is vulnerable to climate change. In one

side of the country is situated the Bay of Bengal and on the other the Himalayas.
About 10 % land of the country lies 1 meter above the Mean Sea Level and one-third
is under tidal excursions. If the sea level rises by one meter in the century, about
six to eight million people could be displaced by 2050 in coastal low lying areas of
Bangladesh.

28. Although LDCs are not responsible for climate change but they are the
vulnerable group. But to mitigate climate change it evident that both developed and
developing countries need to work together for a possible solution. The Copenhagen
Conference produced a non consensus poor pot come accord but it established a
climate fund of $30 Billion during 2010 to 2012 period. To save the humanity the
global leaders should produce a comprehensive, fair and legally binding climate
accord at COP 16 in Cancun, Mexico in December 2010.

Chattogram MD OMAR SHARIF

Lieutenant BN
April 2020 Divisional Officer

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BIBLIOGRAPHY

Internet

1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_change

2. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_gas

3. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyoto_Protocol

4. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Intergovernmental_Panel_Climate_Change

5. http://www.climatechangefacts.info

6. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/UNFCCC

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