Operations Analytics

Assignment I
A. For the following Data
MONTH DEMAND
January2021 119
February 72
March 113
April 82
May 82
June 131
July 111
August 116
September 89
October 95
November 88
December 90
Calculate: 1. Develop a three-period moving average forecast for April 2021
through January 2022. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for April through
December 2021.
2. Develop a two-period weighted moving average forecast for March 2021 through
January 2022. Use weights of 0.6 and 0.4, with the most recent observation
weighted higher. Calculate the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for March
through December.
3. Develop an exponential smoothing forecast (a=0.3) for February 2021 through
January 2022. Assume that your forecast for January 2021 was 100. Calculate
the MFE, MAD, and MAPE values for February through December 2022.
B. After graduating from college, you and your friends start selling birdhouses made
from recycled plastic. The idea has caught on, as shown by the following sales
figures:
MONTH DEMAND
March 220
April 2,240
May 1,790
June 4,270
July 3,530
August 4,990
1. Prepare forecasts for June through September by using a three-period moving
average model.
2 Prepare forecasts for June through September by using an exponential
smoothing model with a=0.5. Assume that the forecast for May was 2,000.
3. Prepare forecasts for June through September by using an adjusted
exponential smoothing model with a=0.5 and b=0.3. Assume that the
unadjusted forecast (Ft) for May was 2,000 and the trend factor (Tt)for May was 700.