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Ef1a2 Ppt4 MPC Bi-Monthly Mains Model Ans Pcb7 Ul
Ef1a2 Ppt4 MPC Bi-Monthly Mains Model Ans Pcb7 Ul
Limitations of Monetary
Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
3 ways of making monetary policy
Exchange rate •Multiple Inflation with inflation
We are not so concerned
stability Indicators
control. targeting
•Singapore & other
export oriented ••Growth
We just
•Employment
want 1•2-6% CPI (all India)
US $
•Repo>CPI
= 2 Singapore Dollars= This
economies. helpsWPI,CPI
•Inflation in tourism & exports.
•Other indicators
We’ll try
••Exchange fall inthe
rateto regulate line.money supply of our local
Successful in
currency againstwestern
the US dollars to to this
nations.
But how to
• (more in Pillar #3A on currency exchange). update??
3 ways of making monetary policy
Exchange rate Multiple Inflation
stability Indicators targeting
•Singapore & other •Growth⬆ •2-6% CPI (all India)
export oriented •Employment⬆ •Repo>CPI
economies. •Inflation control •Other indicators
•Stable Exchange fall in line.
rate Successful in
western nations.
We’ll try to set Repo rate @such level ke all these goals are
targetted. – India used this method till 2016.
3 ways of making monetary policy
Exchange rate Multiple Inflation
stability Indicators targeting
• Singapore & • Growth • Other indicators
other export • Employment fall in line. Before Rajan
oriented • Inflation WPI,CPI Successful in
economies. western nations. •Update: 45-45 days
• Exchange rate
From Rajan
India adopted this from 2016
•60-60 days (Bi-monthly)
2013-14
• Gov Rajan forms (Dy.Gov) Urjit Patel Committee to review Monetary Policy making
2016
• RBI Act amended to setup for MPC Committee & inflation targeting
• Keep inflation within 2-6% CPI (All India)
✋Members 2020-2024:
NAMES
NOT IMP4IAS
1 Dy.Gov 1 Executive
Director of
RBI
Ex-officio
Chairman
.
Tenure tied with official post in RBI. E.g. Shaktikanta Das= 3 year tenure (as RBI
governor). If he’s reappointed as RBI gov., he’ll continue here also.
Quorum
Decisions?
2% 4% 6%
not lower than this because not higher than this because
deflation = unemployment too much inflation= hardship
(Philip curve) to poor people.
Bi-monthly Updates ✅Tools → Quantitative,
(2020, 2021, 2022-Jul) Gen., Indirect
Reserve Ratios (CRR, SLR)
MCLR, External Rates: Bank, MSF, LAF [Repo, RR]
Benchmark OMO, Op Twist
Limitations of Monetary
Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
Pause Video to
Attempt it Yourself
6 members
RBI governor!
Synonyms:
Repo rate, benchmark interest rate of
central bank, policy rate
Pause Video to
Attempt it Yourself
6 members
RBI governor!
• There is no option where
“none of the three
statement” is given.
• You’ve to pick least bad
But first statement says “RATES” = plural but option.
MPC decides only a single Repo rate so even • Hairsplittery =
#1 is wrong. Pause Video to
Fencesitting=#EPICFAIL
Attempt it Yourself
Pause Video to
Attempt it Yourself
Then RBI timepass ke liye adjust repo rate?
.
•
Pause Video to
Attempt it Yourself
CRR is in separate Quantitative, Gen., Indirect
category! Reserve Ratios (CRR, SLR)
CRR Rates: Bank, MSF, LAF [Repo, RR]
OMO & MSS, SDF
Limitations of
Monetary Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
9.00
Repo ⏬in Global financial crisis
8.50
8.00 8.00 7.75 8.00 6 Member MPC,
.📑Pillar#3A
6.75
Inflation targeting
(2-6%) starts from
6.50 6.25 6.25 6.50
6.00 here
6.00
5.00 4.75 5.00
Repo 9.00 8.00 5.00 4.75 Previous governor’s timeline / names not
5.00 6.00 8.50 8.00 7.75 8.00 6.75 6.50
-Oct
6.25
-Aug
6.00
-Jun
6.25
-Aug
6.50
Axis Title
imp. but one should be aware of ‘trend’
9.00
8.50
8.00 8.00 7.75 8.00 6 Member MPC,
Inflation targeting
6.75 6.50 (2-6%) starts from
6.25 6.00 here6.25 6.50
6.00
5.00 4.75 5.00
6.75 6.50
6.00 6.25 6.00 6.25 6.50
6.75 6.50
6.00 6.25 6.00 6.25 6.50
✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
• committee to decide only the repo rate. • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• All other tools = decided solely by Governor • Selective Credit Control:
• repo • Credit Rationing, Consumer
. Credit control / EMI, PSL
😰Failure if
continously outside
this range for
9 months
Inflation ⏫✋
Priority
#1 Keep in 2-6% CPI Range
Needs Hawkish/Tight/
Dear
Money Policy
Make Loans
Expensive → ⏬Demand
→
⏫Repo,
CRR, SLR ⏬Inflation
😰Failure if
continously outside
this range for
9 months
Inflation ⏫✋
Priority
#1 Keep in 2-6% CPI Range
Needs Hawkish/Tight/Dear
Money Policy
4%
5th 18(Dec) 6th 18(Feb19) 1st 19 (Apr) 2nd 19(Jun) 3rd 19 (Aug) 4th 19(Oct) 5th 19(Dec) 6th 20 (Feb) Corona Policies
RBI’s Stance
Increase
Decrease
⏫
(=)
No change (hold)
Accommodative ⏬✋
Decrease
What we’ll do in the Inflation
Increase (Hike)
next meeting after 2 Calibrated
months? Tightening
No change (hold)
RBI’s Stance
Increase
Decrease
RBI’s Stance
Increase
Decrease
RBI’s Stance
Increase
Decrease
2.00%
1.00%
I’ll not do
anything! Inflation shd not
0.00%
be less than 2%
June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan
CPI
Combat Deflation /
Tool Combat Inflation
⏫GDP
Expensive Loans
Inflation Sellers ⏬
controlled price to attract
customers
GDP Growth / Post-Corona revival
•Cheap loans requires this.
Failure
•If only inflation outside 2-6% range for
•9 months continously
Supply side factors
•Crude oil, Russia-Ukraine War
•Global commodity prices
•REPO can’t fix.
2020 2021
Policy
trend ?
CPI
2%
below
GDP is the Market value of
More in pillar4
All final goods & services
5th 18(Dec) 6th 18(Feb19) 1st 19 (Apr) 2nd 19(Jun) 3rd 19 (Aug) 4th 19(Oct) 5th 19(Dec) 6th 20 (Feb)
2-2
Few
RBI PMGKY Total
others
8 1.* 20LCR
11
May-2020:
3) More loans for MSME, PM Matsya Sampda Yojana,
Agri infra funds. (we’ll see them in respective pillars)
₹20 lcr ka Atma Nirbhar Bharat economic
stimulus package. More in Pillar#2 & #4C
1.0 RBI PMGKY Few Total>
13 2 others 30LCR
6.5
5.5
⏫REPO
7.5%
→
→ DEMAND
SUPPLY
6.5 6.25 6 5.75 5.4 5.15 5.15 5.15
4
5th 18(Dec) 6th 18(Feb19) 1st 19 (Apr) 2nd 19(Jun) 3rd 19 (Aug) 4th 19(Oct) 5th 19(Dec) 6th 20 (Feb) Mar20 Oct21
- Repo ⏬ to @4%
- Stance: Accommodative
- RBI Priority#2,
Priority#1: …. when #1 is
• Control done
inflation in • Boost GDP
2-6% range growth rate
6.00
5.40 5.15 5.15 4.40 4.90
4.00
1st 19 (Apr) 3rd 19 (Aug) 4th 19(Oct) 6th 20 (Feb) Mar20 Oct21 2022-May 2022-June
RBI’s Stance
Increase
Decrease
✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
• committee to decide only the repo rate. • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• All other tools = decided solely by Governor • Selective Credit Control:
• repo • Credit Rationing, Consumer
. Credit control / EMI, PSL
1) MPC Committee =
• 2) After meeting is over, RBI governor
only 1 function. Decide repo rate. separately and by his own discretion
announce other regulatory measures.
• ✅Monetary policy: launch TLTRO,⬇
CRR, SLR, PSL, etc.
• ✅Regulatory reforms: ban magnetic
chip-walle cards. Use EMV card etc,
cryptocurrency related.. (Pillar#1A1)
.
CRR, SLR, PSL →
• cryptocurrencies are dangerous WRT
consumer protection, market integrity
and money laundering.
• No entity regulated by RBI shall deal
with Cryptocurrencies….
😰
2018: RBI ordered- all banks, payment-App-wallas etc ke
“Payment System data must be stored in India”
Pause Video to
Attempt it Yourself
• server
•
- they may store it in Infosys/Wipro
company’s server etc Pause Video to
• CAG Attempt it Yourself
1) MPC Committee =
• 2) After meeting is over, RBI governor
only 1 function. Decide repo rate. separately and by his own discretion
announce other regulatory measures.
• ✅Monetary policy: launch TLTRO,⬇
CRR, SLR, PSL, etc.
• ✅Regulatory reforms: ban magnetic
chip-walle cards. Use EMV card etc,
cryptocurrency related.. (Pillar#1A1)
.
CRR, SLR, PSL →
Everything said/done by RBI
or theHindu or private quiz
master is not important for
exam. Look at previous
papers.
XYZ
Everything said/done by RBI
or theHindu or private quiz
master is not important for
exam. Look at previous
papers.
XYZ
Bi-monthly Updates ✅Tools → Quantitative,
(2020, 2021, 2022-Feb) Gen., Indirect
Reserve Ratios (CRR, SLR)
MCLR, External Rates: Bank, MSF, LAF [Repo, RR]
Benchmark OMO, Op Twist
Limitations of Monetary
Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
Cost Selling
Profit
Price Price
Asset Liability
CRR: 4 RBI loans
SLR: 18
Time Deposits
5) How much loan 78
Loanable: Demand Deposits
interest rate% should I
charge to make profit?
RBI gave Benchmark
Govt “administered” Prime Lending Rate
1991: M.Narsimham-
rates on Public Sector (BPLR) Methodology
deregulate
Banks (PSBs)
(✋notimp at present)
• Kisan loan _ %
2010: Base Rate (
)
• Cattle purchase loan _2019:
2016: MCLR % External
Benchmark
• Irrigation Pumpset purchase loan _%...
Asset Liability
CRR: 4 RBI loans
SLR: 18
Time Deposits
Internal formula 2) Staff salary,
Loanable: 78 Demand Deposits Telephone bill
components
NOT IMP✋
I’ll add all these factors into a
formula to derive a value
= “BASE RATE”.
Cost Selling
Profit
Price Price
Similarly
Deposit
Interest Operating Min. rate
CRR Cost BASE RATE
(Cost of Cost of return
Funds)
Cost Selling
Profit
Price Price
Similarly
Deposit
Interest Operating Min. rate
CRR Cost BASE RATE
(Cost of Cost of return
Funds)
2019: External
2010: Base Rate 2016: MCLR
Benchmark
2019: External
2010: Base Rate 2016: MCLR
Benchmark
8 6.25
2) Look I’m following
1) MCLR on new loans
Jan.2015 from 1st April 2016 Nov.2016 easy / dovish money
RBI Repo Banks Avg. Lending Rates policy. Please
cheapen your loan.
!“
8.15 8.45 ”
So banks not
6.25 Repo rate just 25 bps⬆ 6.5 transmitting my repo
rates cuts properly.
2019: External
2010: Base Rate 2016: MCLR
Benchmark
So banks not transmitting my repo rates cuts. So banks not transmitting my repo
#time2teachthemlesson… rates cuts. #time2teachthemlesson…
Loan
External Risk
Spread Interest
Benchmark Premium
Rate
Recalculate
Select any one benchmark Depending on bank’s risk with atleast
• RBI repo rate (4%) on: ( ) once every
• 91-day T-bill yield (6.56%) - Category (bike, home) 3-3 months.
• 182-day T-bill yield (6.73%) - Borrower (salaried,
• Any other benchmarks by Financial self-employed, past
Benchmarks India website credit history..)
Spread or
External Loan
margin or Risk
Benchmark Interest
profit Premium
(REPO) Rate
(2.65)
loan
Recalculate with atleast once
yellow every 3-3 months.
• e.g. after giving loan If repo⏬ → then
BANKER can’t switch to “G-Sec yield” as After giving loan,
“benchmark” Banker can’t change
• after giving loan banker Can’t ⏫spread. YELLOW part.
Repo⏬
Loan interest⏬
Repo⏬
Loan interest⏬
MSME definition, we’ll see in pillar4C
Limitations of
Monetary Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
critiques
2) Repo is not the primary raw material for our biz. so, repo had little impact in
changing loan rates. (until external benchmark system)
We’ve to fight inflation
=Hawkish Policy
= Repo⏫ Rajan Era (2013-16) Urjit Era (2016-18)
Time Deposits
Loanable Demand Deposits
Depositors
We are unhappy. are happy
Loans are not cheap
Asset (100) Liability (100)
CRR, SLR: RBI loans
•
Time Deposits
MF/
Loanable Demand Deposits • Corona lockdown=
salary affected. I’m
not interested in
buying any
We’re happy loans are cheap. expensive item. →
But nobody buying things demand⏬ →
govt should ⬇taxes (Pill2). GDP⏬
• 😰Cheap Loans → rich Indian buy 2-5 home for
‘investment’ → shortage of homes → housing
inflation
.
😰High level
😰Low GDP 😰High level Stagflation
of
growth of inflation
unemployment
Philips Curve:
⏫Inflation → ⏫Job . But ✋upto a certain level only.
If onions sell for ₹5000/kg → no one will buy → onion farming jobs will not ⏫
Savings Account Interest Rates
3.5
2019 Corona-2020
Corona-2020
• RBI has reduced repo rate, and also provided long term loans in
TLTRO So banks NOT greatly desperate to acquire the raw material
(i.e. money) from deposits
•
⏬,
repo- .
Year 2020-21 (Amount in Trillions)
Loans to
household/bizman
45%
Bankers' Investment
in G-Sec
55%
price stability economic job creation social justice
( growth ( (
(
fixing the bad loan/NPA problem in banking sector:
• → 📑Pillar#1b2
Limitations of Monetary
Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
CRR⏬, Repo⏬
OMO-> Dollar Supply⏫
Cheap loans →
Revive Economy
Suppose Credit
Card Loans @1%
FPI: Borrow$$ from USA→ Convert ₹₹
Invest in Indian Sharemarket to earn
may be 5% profit per month
CRR⏬, Repo⏬
OMO-> Dollar Supply⏫
Cheap loans →
Revive Economy
1% →
Suppose Credit →
Card Loans @1%
This will be called
CRR⏫, Repo⏫
OMO-> Dollar Supply⏬ FED TAPERING
Expensive loans → Demand⏬
→ Inflation⏬ → ⏬
→
Suppose Credit Card
Loans @✋1%
→ ⏬ →
Loans @ ✅5%
1) FPI was earning 4%
This will be called in Indian market
But, sells off his
FED TAPERING Indian shares
CRR⏫, Repo⏫
OMO-> Dollar Supply⏬
Weak $ Strong
Dollar
($1=₹80 → ₹40) ($1=₹40 → ₹80)
Forex Dealers
who convert Rs
into Dollar for
fees
Limitations of
Monetary Policy ✅Tools → Qualitative:
Selective, Direct
Impact of US Policy • Moral Suasion, Direct Action
• Margin req / LTV
• Selective Credit Control:
Mains Model Ans. • Credit Rationing, Consumer
Credit control / EMI, PSL
BRAINSTORM. We’ll solve on Tomorrow lecture.
done
• Money: barter to Bitcoin
A-1
Only mains Ans
• RBI’s monetary policy
• CRR, SLR, Repo etc pending
A-2
1) MBFI 2) Budget 3) Intl. Trade
Handout
• Classification of Banks-NBFC uploaded
B-1
4) Sectors of
• SEBI Sharemarket 5) Infrastructure 6) HRD
Economy
C
Edu Doubt?
Ask through
GDP is the Market value of
More in pillar4
All final goods & services
What is Macro?Ans.#4Z
✋It doesn’t have to be word-by-word like this. Social justice how? Ans. PSL: weaker
But similar on these lines. section, SC/ST etc
✅Dance ki definition: rhythmic movement of ✋MonPol ki
the body, usually to music and for purpose of definition:
expressing an idea or emotion “RBI makes a policy
✋Dance ki definition: Hrithik Roshan performs known as monetary
an activity known as dance, in Bollywood movies policy”
✅Define • Seen in previous slide
Edu Doubt?
Ask through
•SEBI Sharemarket
C
4) Sectors of
•Insurance, Pension, Fin. Inclusion 5) Infrastructure 6) HRD
D Economy