NVIDIA DCF Model Template

Further Reading → NVIDIA DCF Valuation Model

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x NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)
Current Share Price: $168.98 Case Toggle (1 → 3): 1
Latest Closing Date: 05/23/22 Active Case: Base

x Income Statement
($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Total Revenue $10,918 $16,675 $26,914 $39,282 $53,419

Less: Cost of Revenue (4,150) (6,279) (9,439) (13,749) (18,229)
Gross Profit $6,768 $10,396 $17,475 $25,533 $35,190
Less: Research and Development (2,829) (3,924) (5,268) (7,856) (10,417)
Less: Sales, General & Administrative (1,093) (1,940) (2,166) (3,339) (4,273)
EBIT $2,846 $4,532 $10,041 $14,338 $20,499
Less: Interest Expense (52) (184) (236) (383) (382)
Plus: Interest Income 178 57 29 28 44
Plus: Other Income / Expense, net (2) 4 107 – –
EBT $2,970 $4,409 $9,941 $13,983 $20,161
Less: Income Tax (174) (77) (189) (1,748) (2,520)
Net Income $2,796 $4,332 $9,752 $12,235 $17,641

x Revenue Growth Analysis

($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Gaming Revenue $5,518 $7,759 $12,462 $18,070 $24,349

Y/Y Growth in Gaming Revenue, % NA 40.6% 60.6% 45.0% 34.8%
Base Case 45.0% 34.8%
Upside Case 60.0% 46.0%
Downside Case 25.0% 19.8%

Data Center Revenue $2,983 $6,696 $10,613 $15,920 $22,049

Y/Y Growth in Data Center Revenue, % NA 124.5% 58.5% 50.0% 38.5%
Base Case 50.0% 38.5%
Upside Case 65.0% 49.8%
Downside Case 35.0% 27.3%

Professional Visualization Revenue $1,212 $1,053 $2,111 $3,378 $4,931

Y/Y Growth in Professional Visualizatio NA (13.1%) 100.5% 60.0% 46.0%
Base Case 60.0% 46.0%
Upside Case 80.0% 61.0%
Downside Case 40.0% 31.0%

Automotive Revenue $700 $536 $566 $637 $703

Y/Y Growth in Automotive Revenue, % NA (23.4%) 5.6% 12.5% 10.4%
Base Case 12.5% 10.4%
Upside Case 20.0% 16.0%
Downside Case 5.0% 4.8%

OEM and Other Revenue $505 $631 $1,162 $1,278 $1,387

Y/Y Growth in OEM and Other Revenue, NA 25.0% 84.2% 10.0% 8.5%
Base Case 10.0% 8.5%
 Upside Case 15.0% 12.3%
Downside Case 5.0% 4.8%

Total Revenue $10,918 $16,675 $26,914 $39,282 $53,419

Y/Y Growth in Total Revenue, % NA 52.7% 61.4% 46.0% 36.0%

x Margin Analysis
($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Gross Margin, % 62.0% 62.3% 64.9% 65.0% 65.9%

Base Case 65.0% 65.9%
Upside Case 68.0% 69.0%
Downside Case 62.5% 61.9%

R&D Margin, % 25.9% 23.5% 19.6% 20.0% 19.5%

Base Case 20.0% 19.5%
Upside Case 18.5% 17.9%
Downside Case 22.0% 21.5%

SG&A Margin, % 10.0% 11.6% 8.0% 8.5% 8.0%

Base Case 8.5% 8.0%
Upside Case 8.0% 7.5%
Downside Case 10.0% 9.8%

x Non-GAAP Reconciliation
($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

EBIT $2,846 $4,532 $10,041 $14,338 $20,499

Plus: Stock-Based Compensation 844 1,397 2,004 3,339 4,273
Adjusted EBIT $3,690 $5,929 $12,045 $17,677 $24,773
Non-GAAP EBIT Margin, % 33.8% 35.6% 44.8% 45.0% 46.4%
Plus: D&A 381 1,098 1,174 1,734 2,050
Adjusted EBITDA $4,071 $7,027 $13,219 $19,411 $26,823
Non-GAAP EBITDA Margin, % 37.3% 42.1% 49.1% 49.4% 50.2%
Plus: Rental Expense 114 145 168 176 162
Adjusted EBITDAR $4,185 $7,172 $13,387 $19,587 $26,985
Non-GAAP EBITDA Margin, % 38.3% 43.0% 49.7% 49.9% 50.5%

SBC % of Revenue 7.7% 8.4% 7.4% 8.5% 8.0%

Base Case 8.5% 8.0%
Upside Case 8.0% 7.5%
Downside Case 10.0% 9.8%

x Balance Sheet
($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Cash and Cash Equivalents $11,561 $21,208 $34,043 $53,509

Accounts Receivable, net 2,429 4,650 6,457 8,415
Inventories 1,826 2,605 3,767 4,869
Prepaid Expenses 239 366 550 748
Total Current Assets $16,055 $28,829 $44,817 $67,542
 PP&E, net $2,149 $2,778 $3,397 $4,078
Intangible Assets and Goodwill 6,930 6,688 6,103 5,642
Other Long-Term Assets 3,657 5,892 5,892 5,892
Total Assets $28,791 $44,187 $60,208 $83,153

Accounts Payable $1,149 $1,783 $2,561 $3,484

Accrued Liabilities 1,777 2,552 2,671 3,419
Total Current Liabilities $2,926 $4,335 $5,233 $6,902

Commercial Paper – – – –
Long-Term Debt 6,963 10,946 10,924 10,902
Other Long-Term Liabilities 2,009 2,294 2,294 2,294
Total Liabilities $11,898 $17,575 $18,451 $20,099

Common Stock and APIC $8,722 $10,388 $13,727 $18,000

Treasury Stock (10,756) – – –
Other Comprehensive Income (OCI) 19 (11) (11) (11)
Retained Earnings 18,908 16,235 28,042 45,065
Total Liabilities and Equity $28,791 $44,187 $60,208 $83,153

Check – – – –

x Working Capital Forecast

($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) 53 Days 63 Days 60 Days 58 Days

Base Case 60 Days 58 Days
Upside Case 55 Days 53 Days
Downside Case 65 Days 63 Days

Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) 106 Days 101 Days 100 Days 98 Days
Base Case 100 Days 98 Days
Upside Case 95 Days 91 Days
Downside Case 105 Days 104 Days

Prepaid Expenses % of Revenue 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

Base Case 1.4% 1.4%
Upside Case 1.2% 1.2%
Downside Case 1.6% 1.6%

Days Payable Outstanding (DPO) 67 Days 69 Days 68 Days 70 Days

Base Case 68 Days 70 Days
Upside Case 70 Days 73 Days
Downside Case 64 Days 63 Days

Accrued Liabilities % of SG&A 91.6% 117.8% 80.0% 80.0%

Base Case 80.0% 80.0%
Upside Case 85.0% 85.0%
Downside Case 75.0% 75.0%
 Net Working Capital (NWC) $1,568 $3,286 $5,541 $7,130
(Increase) / Decrease in NWC NA ($1,718) ($2,255) ($1,589)

x PP&E and Intangibles Forecast

($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

PP&E, BoP $2,778 $3,397

Plus: Capex 489 1,128 976 1,768 2,270
Less: Depreciation (355) (486) (611) (1,149) (1,589)
PP&E, EoP $2,778 $3,397 $4,078

Capex % of Revenue 4.5% 6.8% 3.6% 4.5% 4.3%

Base Case 4.5% 4.3%
Upside Case 4.0% 3.8%
Downside Case 5.0% 4.9%

Depreciation % of Capex 72.6% 43.1% 62.6% 65.0% 70.0%

Base Case 65.0% 70.0%
Upside Case 70.0% 75.0%
Downside Case 40.0% 46.3%

Intangibles, BoP $6,688 $6,103

Less: Amortization of Intangibles (25) (612) (563) (585) (461)
Less: Goodwill Impairment – –
Intangibles, EoP $6,103 $5,642

x Retained Earnings Schedule

($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Retained Earnings, BoP $16,235 $28,042

Plus: Net Income 12,235 17,641
Less: Dividends (390) (395) (399) (428) (617)
Retained Earnings, EoP $16,235 $28,042 $45,065

Dividend Payout Ratio, % 13.9% 9.1% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5%

x Cash Flow Statement

($ in millions) 2023E 2024E

Net Income $12,235 $17,641

Depreciation and Amortization 1,734 2,050
Stock-Based Compensation 3,339 4,273
Change in NWC (2,255) (1,589)
Change in Other Long-Term Assets – –
Change in Other Long-Term Liabilities – –
Cash Flow from Operating Activities (CFO) $15,052 $22,376

Capital Expenditures ($1,768) ($2,270)

Other Investing Activities – –
Cash Flow from Investing Activities (CFI) ($1,768) ($2,270)
 Commercial Paper Borrowing / (Repayment) – –
Mandatory Debt Repayment (22) (22)
Optional Debt Repayment – –
Dividend Issuances (428) (617)
Cash Flow from Financing Activities (CFF) ($450) ($639)

Cash, BoP $21,208 $34,043

Plus: Net Change in Cash 12,835 19,466
Cash, EoP $21,208 $34,043 $53,509

x Debt Schedule
($ in millions) 2023E 2024E

FCF, Pre-Debt Repayment $12,857 $19,488

Plus: Beginning Cash Balance 21,208 34,043
Less: Mandatory Repayment (22) (22)
Less: Minimum Cash Balance $100 (100) (100)
FCF, Pre-Commercial Paper $33,943 $53,409

Commercial Paper, BoP – –

Plus: Borrowing / (Repayment) – –
Commercial Paper, EOP – – –
Unused Amount, BoP $575 $575 $575
Unused Amount, EoP $575 $575

FCF, Pre-Optional Repayment $33,943 $53,409

Long-Term Debt, BoP $10,946 $10,924

Less: Mandatory Repayment 0.2% (22) (22)
Less: Optional Repayment – – –
Long-Term Debt, EoP $10,946 $10,924 $10,902

x Interest Expense Schedule

($ in millions) 2023E 2024E

Commercial Paper Interest Expense – –

CP Interest Rate, % 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Plus: Long-Term Debt Interest Expense ($383) ($382)
LT Debt Interest Rate, % 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Interest Expense ($383) ($382)

Interest Income $28 $44

Cash Interest Rate, % 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Interest Income $28 $44

x Earnings Per Share (EPS) Schedule

($ in millions) 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023E 2024E

Basic Shares Outstanding 2,439 2,467 2,496 2,496 2,496

Net Differential 33 43 39 39 39
Diluted Shares Outstanding 2,472 2,510 2,535 2,535 2,535
Basic EPS $1.15 $1.76 $3.91 $4.90 $7.07
Diluted EPS $1.13 $1.73 $3.85 $4.83 $6.96
Circularity Switch: OFF
Tax Rate, %: 12.5%

2025E 2026E 2027E

$67,070 $77,030 $80,112

(22,301) (24,939) (25,235)
$44,769 $52,092 $54,876
(12,743) (14,251) (14,420)
(5,030) (5,392) (5,207)
$26,996 $32,449 $35,249
(381) (380) (380)
66 95 128
– – –
$26,681 $32,164 $34,998
(3,335) (4,020) (4,375)
$23,346 $28,143 $30,623

2025E 2026E 2027E

$30,315 $34,635 $36,020

24.5% 14.3% 4.0%
24.5% 14.3% 4.0%
32.0% 18.0% 4.0%
14.5% 9.3% 4.0%

$28,002 $32,342 $33,636

27.0% 15.5% 4.0%
27.0% 15.5% 4.0%
34.5% 19.3% 4.0%
19.5% 11.8% 4.0%

$6,509 $7,681 $7,988

32.0% 18.0% 4.0%
32.0% 18.0% 4.0%
42.0% 23.0% 4.0%
22.0% 13.0% 4.0%

$761 $807 $840

8.3% 6.1% 4.0%
8.3% 6.1% 4.0%
12.0% 8.0% 4.0%
4.5% 4.3% 4.0%

$1,484 $1,566 $1,628

7.0% 5.5% 4.0%
7.0% 5.5% 4.0%
 9.5% 6.8% 4.0%
4.5% 4.3% 4.0%

$67,070 $77,030 $80,112

25.6% 14.9% 4.0%

2025E 2026E 2027E

66.8% 67.6% 68.5%

66.8% 67.6% 68.5%
70.0% 71.0% 72.0%
61.3% 60.6% 60.0%

19.0% 18.5% 18.0%

19.0% 18.5% 18.0%
17.3% 16.6% 16.0%
21.0% 20.5% 20.0%

7.5% 7.0% 6.5%

7.5% 7.0% 6.5%
7.0% 6.5% 6.0%
9.5% 9.3% 9.0%

2025E 2026E 2027E

$26,996 $32,449 $35,249

5,030 5,392 5,207
$32,026 $37,841 $40,456
47.8% 49.1% 50.5%
2,417 2,432 2,399
$34,443 $40,273 $42,856
51.4% 52.3% 53.5%
136 124 114
$34,579 $40,397 $42,970
51.6% 52.4% 53.6%

7.5% 7.0% 6.5%

7.5% 7.0% 6.5%
7.0% 6.5% 6.0%
9.5% 9.3% 9.0%

2025E 2026E 2027E

$79,454 $110,823 $145,347

10,106 11,080 10,974
5,804 6,320 6,222
939 1,078 1,122
$96,304 $129,301 $163,665
 $4,748 $5,326 $5,747
5,237 5,116 5,100
5,892 5,892 5,892
$112,181 $145,635 $180,404

$4,369 $5,005 $5,185

4,024 4,314 4,166
$8,393 $9,318 $9,351

– – –
10,880 10,858 10,837
2,294 2,294 2,294
$21,567 $22,471 $22,482

$23,031 $28,423 $33,630

– – –
(11) (11) (11)
67,594 94,753 124,304
$112,181 $145,635 $180,404

– – –

2025E 2026E 2027E

55 Days 53 Days 50 Days

55 Days 53 Days 50 Days
50 Days 48 Days 45 Days
60 Days 58 Days 55 Days

95 Days 93 Days 90 Days

95 Days 93 Days 90 Days
88 Days 84 Days 80 Days
103 Days 101 Days 100 Days

1.4% 1.4% 1.4%

1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
1.2% 1.2% 1.2%
1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

72 Days 73 Days 75 Days

72 Days 73 Days 75 Days
75 Days 78 Days 80 Days
62 Days 61 Days 60 Days

80.0% 80.0% 80.0%

80.0% 80.0% 80.0%
85.0% 85.0% 85.0%
75.0% 75.0% 75.0%
 $8,457 $9,160 $8,967
($1,327) ($703) $193

2025E 2026E 2027E

$4,078 $4,748 $5,326

2,683 2,889 2,804
(2,012) (2,311) (2,383)
$4,748 $5,326 $5,747

4.0% 3.8% 3.5%

4.0% 3.8% 3.5%
3.5% 3.3% 3.0%
4.8% 4.6% 4.5%

75.0% 80.0% 85.0%

75.0% 80.0% 85.0%
80.0% 85.0% 90.0%
52.5% 58.8% 65.0%

$5,642 $5,237 $5,116

(405) (121) (16)
– – –
$5,237 $5,116 $5,100

2025E 2026E 2027E

$45,065 $67,594 $94,753

23,346 28,143 30,623
(817) (985) (1,072)
$67,594 $94,753 $124,304

3.5% 3.5% 3.5%

2025E 2026E 2027E

$23,346 $28,143 $30,623

2,417 2,432 2,399
5,030 5,392 5,207
(1,327) (703) 193
– – –
– – –
$29,467 $35,265 $38,422

($2,683) ($2,889) ($2,804)

– – –
($2,683) ($2,889) ($2,804)
 – – –
(22) (22) (22)
– – –
(817) (985) (1,072)
($839) ($1,007) ($1,094)

$53,509 $79,454 $110,823

25,945 31,369 34,524
$79,454 $110,823 $145,347

2025E 2026E 2027E

$25,967 $31,391 $34,546

53,509 79,454 110,823
(22) (22) (22)
(100) (100) (100)
$79,354 $110,723 $145,247

– – –
– – –
– – –
$575 $575 $575
$575 $575 $575

$79,354 $110,723 $145,247

$10,902 $10,880 $10,858

(22) (22) (22)
– – –
$10,880 $10,858 $10,837

2025E 2026E 2027E

– – –
1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
($381) ($380) ($380)
3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
($381) ($380) ($380)

$66 $95 $128

0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
$66 $95 $128

2025E 2026E 2027E

2,496 2,496 2,496

39 39 39
2,535 2,535 2,535
$9.35 $11.28 $12.27
$9.21 $11.10 $12.08
x NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA)

x Free Cash Flow Build

($ in millions) 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E

EBIT $14,338 $20,499 $26,996 $32,449

Less: Taxes Tax Rate, % 12.5% (1,792) (2,562) (3,374) (4,056)
NOPAT $12,546 $17,937 $23,621 $28,393
Plus: D&A 1,734 2,050 2,417 2,432
Less: Increase in NWC (2,255) (1,589) (1,327) (703)
Less: Capex (1,768) (2,270) (2,683) (2,889)
Free Cash Flow to Firm (FCFF) $10,257 $16,128 $22,029 $27,234
FCFF Growth Rate, % NA 57.2% 36.6% 23.6%
Discount Factor (Mid-Year Convention) 0.5 1.5 2.5 3.5
Present Value of FCFF $9,722 $13,734 $16,854 $18,719

x WACC Calculation DCF Valuation

($ in millions) ($ in millions)

Cost of Debt Calculation Sum of Projected FCFF (Stage 1)

Interest Expense ($236) Terminal Growth Rate, %
Total Debt $10,946 2027 FCFF x (1 + g)
Pre-Tax Cost of Debt 2.2% Terminal Value (TV) in Final Year
Effective Tax Rate, % 1.9% PV of Terminal Value (Stage 2)
After-Tax Cost of Debt (kd) 2.1% Total Enterprise Value (TEV)
Less: Net Debt
Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) Equity Value
Risk-Free Rate (rf) 2.8% Diluted Shares Outstanding
Beta (β), 5Y 1.59
Equity Risk Premium (ERP) 5.5% Implied Share Price
Cost of Equity (ke) 11.5% % Premium / (Discount)

Debt + Equity Weights ($) (%)

Total Debt Balance $10,946 2.5%
Market Value of Equity $421,100 97.5%
Total Capitalization $432,046 100.0%

WACC 11.3%

x Sensitivity Analysis

Terminal Growth Rate, %

2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
8.0% $182.82 $196.80 $213.58 $234.10 $259.73 $292.70
8.5% $168.45 $180.09 $193.85 $210.36 $230.54 $255.77
9.0% $156.14 $165.96 $177.42 $190.96 $207.21 $227.07
WACC, % 9.5% $145.48 $153.85 $163.52 $174.80 $188.12 $204.11
10.0% $136.16 $143.37 $151.62 $161.13 $172.23 $185.34
10.5% $127.95 $134.21 $141.31 $149.43 $158.79 $169.71
11.0% $120.66 $126.14 $132.30 $139.29 $147.28 $156.49
11.5% $114.14 $118.97 $124.36 $130.43 $137.31 $145.17
12.0% $108.28 $112.56 $117.31 $122.62 $128.60 $135.37
 2027E

$35,249
(4,406)
$30,843
2,399
193
(2,804)
$30,631
12.5%
4.5
$18,916

$77,945
3.5%
$31,703
$406,133
$250,803
$328,748
10,262
$339,010
2,535

$133.73
26.4%