Lingkungan

Makroekonomi

Materi 8
Pasar internasional

Oleh: Dr. Chandra Utama, SE., MM., MSc.

 Peta interaktif perdagangan

Kunjungi: https://resourcetrade.earth/
 Transaksi luar
negeri

Data lebih lengkap lihat:

https://www.bi.go.id/id/stat
istik/ekonomi-
keuangan/seki/Default.aspx
#headingFour
The foreign exchange sector of the open economy and the determination of the exchange
rate under floating exchange rates (Handa, 2009)
 The foreign exchange sector of the open economy and the determination of the exchange
rate under floating exchange rates (Handa, 2009)

Equilibrium condition for the foreign exchange market becomes:

 Paritas suku bunga dan harga
Interest Rate Parity
Interest rate parity (IRP) adalah teori yang menyatakan
bahwa tingkat suku bunga antar negara (lokasi) mestinya
sama. Jika tingkat suku bunga berbeda maka akan ada arus
aliran dana dari tempat yang suku bunganya rendah ke
tempat yang suku bunganya tinggi.
Teori Mundel Flaming menjelaskan adanya free capital
mobility antar negara.
Purchasing power parity
Purchasing power parity (PPP) adalah istilah
ekonomi untuk mengukur harga pada lokasi yang
berbeda. Teori ini berdasarkan konsep law of one
price, yang menyatakan, jika tidak ada biaya
transaksi dan halangan perdagangan maka harga
barang mestinya sama untuk semua lokasi.

Suku bunga DN Harga DN dibanding harga

dibanding suku bunga LN
LN

Capital (financial flow) Ekspor dan impor

Inflow atau outflow

Nilai tukar mata uang Permintaan dan

Permintaan dan
dibanding mata uang asing penawaran Valas
penawaran Valas
 Ingat Kembali materi 1
Sektor luar
Central
bank negeri

Regulator International
Financial
sector sector

Real sector

Regulator

Real sector
Teori dasar perdagangan
internasional
Teori dasar perdagangan internasional

Absolute Advantage
DayaTukar Dalam Negeri:
•Harga kopi di Indonesia lebih murah,
yaitu 1kg=½M kain jika dibandingkan
harga kopi di Cina senilai 1kg=2M.
•Harga kain di Cina lebih murah yaitu
1M=½kg kain jika dibandingkan Harga
kain di Cina lebih murah,yaitu 1M=½ kg
kain jika dibandingkan harga kopi di
Cina senilai 1M=2kg.
Absolute Advantage masing masing Negara
Absolute Advantage masing‐masing Negara Berdasar nilai DTDN, Indonesia mempunyai
keunggulan absolute dalam produksi kopi sehingga akan melakukan spesialisasi produksi
dan ekspor kopi ke Cina SebaliknyaCina mempunyi keunggulan absolut ekspor kopi ke Cina.
Sebaliknya Cina mempunyai keunggulan absolut dalam produksi kain sehingga akan
melakukan spesialisasi produksi dan ekspor kain ke Indonesia.
Teori dasar perdagangan internasional

Comparative Advantage
Ide dasar David Ricardo:
1. Teori Comparative Adventage (Cost
Comparative) berdasarkan nilai tenaga
kerja (theory of labor value). Harga
suatu barang ditentukan oleh jumlah
waktu (jam kerja) yang diperlukan
untuk memproduksinya.

2. Negara memperoleh manfaat perdagangan internasional jika melakukan spesilisasi

produksi dan ekspor barang yang diproduksi relatif lebih efesien.

Data diatas perlu dimodifikasi dalam bentuk perbandingan untuk melihat labor efficiency.
Perhitungan Labor Effeciency menjadi seperti berikut:
Teori dasar perdagangan internasional

Comparative Advantage

Perhitungan perbandingan Cost menunjukkan bahwa:

• TK Indonesia lebih efisien dalam memproduksi 1 M kain yaitu selama 1/3
hari kerja dibandingkan jika memproduksi 1 gula yang memerlukan waktu
selama ½ hari kerja. Kondisi mendorong Indonesia melakukan spesialisasi
produksi dan ekspor kain.
• TK Cina lebih efisien dalam mem p produksi 1 kg gula yaitu selama 2 hari
kerja dibandingkan jika memproduksi 1 M kain yang memerlukan waktu
selama 3 hari kerja. Kondisi mendorong Cina melakukan spesialisasi
produksi dan ekspor gula
Teori dasar perdagangan internasional

Comparative Advantage

Spesialisasi produksi beras dan ekspor 1 M kain Negara Indonesia ke

Cina akan menghasilkan keuntungan perdagangan. Indonesia akan
memperoleh 9/4 kg gula dibandingkan jika hanya dijual di dalam negeri
yaitu hanya sebesar 3/2 kg gula. Dengan demikian keuntungan d
dagangan yang dipero dlh le h In d donesia se b besar ( (9 / /4– 3 / /2 k
kg=¾ kg k) ) gu l la.
 Intra-Industry Trade (IIT)

IIT adalah bentuk perdagangan dengan produk- produk yang

sama sudah menjadi hal yang umum di sektor industri. Pola
perdagangan yang terjadi antar negara ini diidentififikasi karena
adanya keterkaitan perdangangan yang erat.

Contoh:
Eropa mengekspor 2,6 juta kendaraan bermotor pada tahun 2002, dan
mengimpor 2,2 juta di antaranya. Jepang mengekspor 4,7 juta
kendaraan pada tahun 2002 (1 juta di antaranya pergi ke Eropa, dan 2
juta ke Amerika Utara), dan mengimpor 0,3 juta.
 Intra-Industry Trade (IIT)

IIT adalah bentuk perdagangan dengan produk- produk yang

sama sudah menjadi hal yang umum di sektor industri. Pola
perdagangan yang terjadi antar negara ini diidentififikasi karena
adanya keterkaitan perdangangan yang erat.

Contoh:
Eropa mengekspor 2,6 juta kendaraan bermotor pada tahun 2002, dan
mengimpor 2,2 juta di antaranya. Jepang mengekspor 4,7 juta
kendaraan pada tahun 2002 (1 juta di antaranya pergi ke Eropa, dan 2
juta ke Amerika Utara), dan mengimpor 0,3 juta.
 Intra-Industry Trade (IIT)

There are three types of intra-industry trade

1.Trade in Homogeneous Goods.
2.Trade in Horizontally Differentiated Goods.
3.Trade in Vertically Differentiated Goods.

Although the theory and measurement of intra-industry trade initially

focused on trade in goods, especially industrial products, it has also
been observed that there is substantial intra-industry trade in the
international trade of services.
 Data perdagangan internasional
https://comtrade.un.org/
Free access to detailed global trade data. UN Comtrade is a repository of official international trade
statistics and relevant analytical tables. All data is accessible through API.

wits.worldbank.org
keterbukaan ekonomi
Indonesia
Keterbukaan
perdagangan

Sumber: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Trade_Openness%2C_OWID.svg

Data lebih detail silahkan lihat di: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_trade-to-GDP_ratio

 Transaksi luar
negeri

Data lebih lengkap lihat:

https://www.bi.go.id/id/stat
istik/ekonomi-
keuangan/seki/Default.aspx
#headingFour
Current account (Neraca perdagangan)
The transactions above the line record payments to and from the rest of the world
are called current account transactions:

• The first two lines record the exports and imports of goods and services.
• U.S. residents receive investment income on their holdings of foreign assets
and vice versa.
• Countries give and receive foreign aid; the net value
is recorded as net transfers received.

The sum of net payments in the current account balance can be positive, in which
case the country has a current account surplus, or negative—a current account
deficit.
Openness in financial market
Capital account transactions.
•The capital account balance, also known as net capital flows can be positive
(negative) if foreign holdings of U.S. assets are greater (less) than U.S. holdings of
foreign assets, in which case there is a capital account surplus (deficit). Negative
net capital flows are called a capital account deficit.
•The numbers for current and capital account transactions are constructed using
different sources; although they should give the same answers, they typically do
not. The difference between the two is call the statistical discrepancy.
Ekspor dan
impor
 Trade balance
Indonesia: Trade balance, billion
USD, 2013 - 2020:
Sumber:
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Indonesia/trade_
balance_dollars/

Indonesia: Trade balance as percent of

GDP: 2013 - 2020
Sumber:
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Indonesia/trade_
balance_dollars/
 Openness in Goods and Financial Markets
Openness has three distinct dimensions:

1. Openness in goods markets. Free trade restrictions include tariffs and

quotas.

2. Openness in financial markets. Capital controls place restrictions on

the ownership of foreign assets.

3. Openness in factor markets. The ability of firms to choose where to

locate production, and workers to choose where to work. The North
American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is an example of this.
The Choice between Domestic Goods and Foreign
Goods

•When goods markets are open, domestic consumers must decide not
only how much to consume and save, but also whether to buy
domestic goods or to buy foreign goods.

•Central to the second decision is the price of domestic goods relative

to foreign goods, or the real exchange rate.
 Ekspor / GDP

Impor / GDP

Sumber:
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/Indonesia/export
s/
 Keterbukaan
perdagangan
Indonesia

• Indonesia: Trade openness: exports

plus imports as percent of GDP, 1967 -
2020:
• For that indicator, we provide data for
Indonesia from 1967 to 2020. The average
value for Indonesia during that period was
48.82 percent with a minimum of 23.84
percent in 1969 and a maximum of 96.19
percent in 1998. The latest value from
2020 is 33.19 percent. For comparison,
the world average in 2020 based on 156
countries is 82.61 percent. See the global
rankings for that indicator or use
the country comparator to compare
trends over time.

Sumber:
https://www.theglobaleconomy.com/indonesia/trade_
openness/
Keterbukaan
Keuangan

Data lebih detail silahkan lihat di: https://econbrowser.com/archives/2021/08/chinn-ito-

financial-openness-index-updated-to-2019
Sumber: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f6/Trade_Openness%2C_OWID.svg
Silahkan baca juga: Bush, Georgia , (2015), Capital Flows, De Jure vs. De Facto Financial Openness,
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314472533_Capital_Flows_De_Jure_vs_De_Facto_Fina
ncial_Openness
Openness in financial market
The purchase and sale of foreign assets implies buying or selling foreign currency—
sometimes called foreign exchange.

Openness in financial markets allows:

Financial investors to diversify—to hold both domestic and foreign assets and
speculate on foreign interest rate movements.

Allows countries to run trade surpluses and deficits. A country that buys more
than it sells must pay for the difference by borrowing from the rest of the world.
Openness in financial market
The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets
•The decision whether to invest abroad or at home
depends not only on interest rate differences, but also
on your expectation of what will happen to the
nominal exchange rate.

Expected Returns from

Holding One-Year U.S.
Bonds or One-Year U.K.
Bonds

30 of 40
Openness in financial market
The Choice between Domestic and Foreign Assets
•If both U.K. bonds and U.S. bonds are to be held, they must
have the same expected rate of return, so that the following
arbitrage relation must hold:

 1 
The assumption that

(1 + i ) = ( E )(1 + i ) 
financial investors will

*

t e hold only the bonds

E 
t t

t +1 with the highest

expected rate of return
Rearranging the equation, we obtain the uncovered
is obviously too strong,
interest parity relation, or interest parity condition: for two reasons:

 E 
It ignores transaction

(1 + i ) = (1 + i ) 
* costs.

t
e

E 
t t

t +1 It ignores risk.

31 of 40
Openness in financial market
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

•The relation between the domestic nominal interest rate,

the foreign nominal interest rate, and the expected rate of
depreciation of the domestic currency is stated as:

(1 + i ) *

(1 + i ) = t

[1 + ( E − E ) / E )]
t e

t +1 t t

A good approximation of the equation above is given by:

−E
e

i i − E
*
t +1 t
t t
E t

32 of 40
Openness in financial market
Interest Rates and Exchange Rates

−E
e

i i − E *
t +1 t
t t
E t

•This is the relation you must remember: Arbitrage implies that the
domestic interest rate must be (approximately ) equal to the foreign
interest rate plus the expected depreciation rate of the domestic
currency.
•

E = i =i
*
•
e
If E, then
t +1 t t t

33 of 40
Nilai tukar mata uang
Supply and demand of currency
Supply and demand of currency

An increase in the exchange rate

For example, an increase in exports would shift the
demand curve for Sterling to the right and push up
the exchange rate. Originally, one pound bought
$1.50, but now buys $1.60, hence its value has
Supply
and
demand of
currency
Nominal exchange rates
Nominal exchange rates between two currencies can be quoted in one of two
ways:
• As the price of the domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency.
• As the price of the foreign currency in terms of the domestic currency.
The nominal exchange rate is the price of the foreign currency in terms of the
domestic currency.
• An appreciation of the domestic currency is an increase in the price of
the domestic currency in
terms of the foreign currency, which corresponds
to a increase in the exchange rate.
• A depreciation of the domestic currency is a decrease in the price of
the domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency, or a decrease in
the exchange rate.

When countries operate under fixed exchange rates, that is, maintain a
constant exchange rate between them, two other terms used are:

• Revaluations, rather than appreciations, which are decreases in the

exchange rate, and

• Devaluations, rather than depreciations, which are increases in the

exchange rate.
From Nominal to real exchange rates

Let’s look at the real exchange rate between the United States and the
UK.

• If the price of a Cadillac in the US is $40,000, and a dollar is

worth 0.50 pounds, then the price of a Cadillac in pounds is
$40,000 X 0.50 = £20,000.

• If the price of a Jaguar in the UK is £30,000, then the price of a

Cadillac in terms of Jaguars would be £20,000/ £30,000 = 0.66.

To generalize this example to all of the goods in the economy, we use a

price index for the economy, or the GDP deflator.
 From Nominal to real exchange
rates
The Construction of the Real
Exchange Rate

1. P = price of U.S. goods in dollars

2. P* = price of British goods in pounds

EP
 =
P *
From Nominal to real exchange
rates
Like nominal exchange rates, real exchange rates move
over time:

An increase in the relative price of domestic goods in

terms of foreign goods is called a real appreciation,
which corresponds to a decrease in the real
exchange rate, .

A decrease in the relative price of domestic goods in

terms of foreign goods is called a real depreciation,
which corresponds to an increase in the real
exchange rate, .
Nilai tukar nominal RP/USD
Nilai tukar Real
From Bilateral to Multilateral Exchange Rates
•Bilateral exchange rates are exchange rates between two countries.
Multilateral exchange rates are exchange rates between several
countries.

•For example, to measure the average price of U.S. goods relative to

the average price of goods of U.S. trading partners, we use the U.S.
share of import and export trade with each country as the weight for
that country, or the multilateral real U.S. exchange rate.
IS-MP model
closed and open economy
Monetary policy in closed economy
Monetary policy in closed economy
Monetary policy in closed economy
Monetary policy in closed economy
IS-MP-PC Model in closed economy
Monetary policy in open economy
Net capital outflow
Expansionary monetary policy in open
economy
Expansionary fiscal policy in open economy
Expansionary fiscal policy in fixed exchange
rate regime
Expansionary monetary policy in fixed
exchange rate regime
The policy trilema