International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308

Contents lists available at ScienceDirect

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/ijdrr

Review Article

Exploratory analysis of fire statistical data and prospective study applied to

security and protection systems
Geovana Pires Araujo Lima a, b, *, Josiane Dantas Viana Barbosa a, Valter Estevão Beal a,
Marcelo Albano Moret S. Gonçalves a, Bruna Aparecida Souza Machado a,
Juliano Zaffalon Gerber b, Benjamin S. Lazarus c
a
SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador, BA, Brazil
b
State University of Santa Cruz, Ilhéus, BA, Brazil
c
University of California San Diego, San Diego, CA, USA

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: Fire can have immeasurable consequences for both structures and living beings. For this reason, it is vital to
Fire statistical proactively prevent fire and act quickly when outbreaks of fire do occur. However, significant research is still
Trend needed to understand trends in global statistical data on fires. Thus, this work presents an exploratory analysis
Fire protection
regarding the types of fire outbreaks, number of occurrences, and number of deaths caused by fires in about 39
Fire safety
countries, from 1993 to 2017, through the reported data from the International Technical Committee for the
Disaster
Prevention and Extinction of Fire – CTIF. Here a prospective study about security and protection against fire is
presented, which was developed from scientific and technical documents, inside the Elsevier and Clarivate
Platform. The results show that fires mainly affect structures, and despite decreasing occurrences and fatalities,
the effect of these events are still signficant. Scientific and technical research in this area has steadily increased
and now addresses different topics of research that contribute to improving safety and fire protection.

1. Introduction
Fire is an exothermic chemical reaction, characterized by the rapid
self-sustained oxidation of a combustible material that releases light,
heat, and certain by products. When the combustion reaction is com­
plete, these by products include carbon dioxide and water, while
incomplete combustion reactions produce water, carbon monoxide, and
carbon [1]. Historically, the mastery of fire represents a milestone for
human evolution. It contributed to the survival of people in cold cli­
mates through heat generation, increased the variety and availability of
nutrients by allowing humans to cook their food, and offered protection
from predators [2].
However, fire can easily grow out of control, causing immeasurable
damage to both material and living beings. Table 1 illustrates the main
environments where fires occur [3].
To avoid this type of incident, it is necessary to develop a well-
structured security plan against rampant fires based on the environ­
ment where it will be implemented. This planning requires passive and
active protection measures, as well as preventive measures, which
involve public instructions and site management [24]. The development
of assertive solutions depends on thorough data analysis and informa­
tion consolidation [25]. To this end, it is of fundamental importance to
map and comprehend the statistical data relevant to fires, such as the
types of fire, annual number of occurrences, and proven deaths [3]. It is
also essential to analyze scientific and technical research relating to fire
protection as a means of identifying trends and extracting pertinent
information that can contribute to the development and improvement of
fire safety.
Many studies to point to passive fire protection, which does not
require activation, as a propitious approach to minimizing fire damage.
This includes structural elements like fire-resistant walls and doors [24,
26,27]. Another promising tactic to reduce fire damage, referred to as
active fire protection, works in response to the presence of fire and in­
cludes features such as sprinklers, fixed gas systems, fire hydrants, sonic
extinguishers, firefighting robots, firefighting drones, and fire extin­
guishers [28–31]. For efficient fire protection it is important to combine
passive and active processes [27].
Different technologies have been developed that incorporate

* Corresponding author. SENAI CIMATEC University Center, Salvador, BA, Brazil.

E-mail address: gpalima@uesc.br (G.P. Araujo Lima).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2021.102308
Received 12 October 2020; Received in revised form 29 April 2021; Accepted 1 May 2021
Available online 14 May 2021
2212-4209/© 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
G.P. Araujo Lima et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308

Table 1 analyzes the number of occurrences and deaths caused by fires in 39

Main environments affected by fires. countries, from 1993 to 2017, reported by the International Technical
Environmental of occurrence Reference Committee for the Prevention and Extinction of Fire – CTIF. Addition­
ally, it reveals the scientific and technical production inside the Elsevier
Structure [4–7]
Forests [8–12] and Clarivate platforms, pointing out trends in publications in this area.
Grass, brush [13–17] These analyses are necessary to reduce the risk of fire disasters.
Vehicle [18–20]
Rubbish [21–23]
2. Material and method

innovative active and passive fire protection solutions, such as pro­
jectiles containing metastable intermolecular composites [32], fire
extinguisher capsules that automatically respond to a fire signal [33] or
remote command [34], fire-fighting drones that freely perform ground
and flight movement [35], nanotechnology to increase fire prevention
and protection strategies, the internet of things [36] and artificial in­
telligence [37] to improve system performance.
This work presents the distribution of different types of fire, and
The methodological procedure is defined by the Flowchart presented
in Fig. 1.
The report published by CTIF (International Technical Committee for
the Prevention and Extinction of Fire), which contains fire statistics from
around the world, was used to map and understand data about fires
related to the type of occurrence, number of cases, and deaths. Nu­
merical data was extracted from the report and was on scatter plot with a
trend curve using Origin software. The fit was made using the cubic
function, according to Equation (1),

Fig. 1. Methodological procedure.

Fig. 2. Methodological procedure to analyze the results.

2
G.P. Araujo Lima et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308

Fig. 3. Distribution of fire types in 2017. Fig. 4. Number of fire occurrences.

y = A + Bx + Cx2 + Dx3 (1)

Where: A = offset, B = cofficient, C = cofficient, D = cofficient.

To highlight the spatio-temporal distribution of the occurrences of
fires and deaths, all data available at CTIF was analyzed, averaging
between the years 1993–1998, 1999–2004, 2005–2010 and 2011–2017.
The data reported by CTIF was complemented by data from the Cana­
dian Centre for Justice Statistics, the Council of Canadian Forest Min­
isters, the Australian Government and Fire Service Bureau, the National
Bureau of Statistics of China, the Rescue Department Ministry of
Emergency Management of China and the National Crime Records Bu­
reau of India. For better visualization, a map chart was created with
excel.
In addition, trends in scientific and technical production from the
Elsevier and Clarivate platforms were analyzed. To verify scientific
publications, ScienceDirect and Web of Science were selected, since they
have a wide international scope and a multidisciplinary coverage. Der­
went Innovation was chosen for the analysis of technical publications
due to its international and multidisciplinary scope as well. This plat­
form reports more than 14.3 million inventions from 40 patent issuing Fig. 5. Number of deaths caused by fire.
authorities worldwide since 1963.
The search string was the same for both types of research, scientific 3.1. Statistical data about fires around the world
and technical, and it consisted of Fire AND (Suppression OR Fighting OR
Safety OR Protection). The obtained data was plotted in a scatter plot According to the International Technical Committee for the Pre­
using Origin software, and the fit was made using the cubic function 1. vention and Extinction of Fire – CTIF, fires can affect different envi­
To facilitate the scientific content analysis, the most frequent terms ronments, such as structures, which include residential, commercial and
in documents were correlated from a network map generated by VOS­ historical buildings; vehicles including cars, trucks, buses; forest, which
viewer Software [38]. Additionally, the main and subcategories from the is characterized by the density of tall trees; grass, comprised of general
International Patent Classification – IPC have been verified to ensure ground vegetation; rubbish, such as waste and debris; and a miscella­
that patents are included. The obtained results were analyzed and dis­ neous category titled other [3]. Fig. 3 shows the percentages of fire sites
cussed, as shown in Fig. 2. reported by CTIF concerning cases that occurred in 2017 in 23 countries.
From the methodological flowchart illustrated in Fig. 2, it was Fires in structures occurred most often, followed by fires in ground
possible to analyze the results extracted from CTIF, ScienceDirect, Web vegetation and vehicles, respectively [3].
of Science, and Derwent Innovation. This method has two aims 1.) To CTIF also reports the number of fires that have occurred over the
present the trends in a general way from the graphical plot of the data, years. Fig. 4 shows a plot of the data reported by Brushlinsky et al. [3]
and 2.) To identify the main aspects of development through analysis of which indicates a downward trend in the number of fires over time.
the correlation networks among the most frequently cited terms in sci­ The data was fitted using a cubic function, as shown by Equation (2),
entific research and main categories of IPC to extract pertinent infor­ and had an R-square of approximately 0.59. The R-square is a very
mation around the area of study. important parameter, that shows how well data points fit a curve.

3. Results and discussion y = − 3.27 × 1012 + 4.89 × 109 x − 2.43 × 106 x2 + 403.87x3 (2)
The trend observed from the average data of 39 countries is similar to
This section presents and discusses the obtained results from this that of structural fires in the USA, according to information extracted
work, described in section 2. from NFPA and USFA [39]. A similar trend can also be noted from NASA
information which reveals that globally, the total area burned by

3
G.P. Araujo Lima et al.
Fig. 6. Spatiotemporal distribution of fire.
vegetation fires in each year decreased around 24% between 1998 and
2015 [40].
It is important to note that even with a downward trend, the number
of fires is still high, with an average of approximately 3.7 million per
year in the 39 countries analyzed [3]. The high number of fires indicates
problems with the current methods of prevention [39]. The incidents of
fire can cause deaths and the majority of these fatalities are caused by
smoke inhalation and burns. Fig. 5 shows the number of deaths reported
by CTIF from 1993 to 2017 in about 39 countries [39].
Similar to the statistical behavior of fire occurrences presented in
Fig. 4, the number of deaths caused by fires exhibits a decreasing trend,
though it still represents a significant value, as 42 thousand people are
killed each year from fires in these 39 countries [3]. The data was again
fitted using a cubic function, as shown in Equation (3), with an R-square
of approximately 0.86.
y = − 8.22 × 1010 + 1.22 × 108 x − 60762.29x2 + 10.06x3 (3)
Fires are distributed among countries with different frequencies ac­
cording the reports by CTIF associated with the data reported by Ca­
nadian Centre for Justice Statistics,1 Council of Canadian Forest
Ministers,2 Australian Government and Fire Service Bureau,3 National
Bureau of Statistics of China,4 Rescue Department Ministry of
1
Canadian Centre for Justice Statistics for the Canadian Association of Fire
Chiefs. Fire statistics in Canada, Selected Observations from the National Fire
Information Database 2005 to 2014. September 2017.
2 The keyword network highlights the areas of greatest interest in
Council of Canadian Forest Ministers - National Forestry Database. Forest
area burned and number of forest fires. Available at: https://cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.
ca/ha/nfdb.
3
Australian Government. Dataset. Fire. Available at: https://data.gov.au/.
4
National Bureau of Statistics of China. Annual data, Available at: http://
www.stats.gov.cn/english/Statisticallydata/AnnualData/.
4
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308
Emergency Management of China5 and National Crime Records Bureau
of India6 [3,41–54]. This data indicates that the country with the highest
occurrence of fires is the USA, as can be seen in Fig. 6. Despite being the
most comprehensive report on global fire incidents since 1993, the CTIF
report is limited by the fact that it only includes an average of 39
countries per year in its reports. This is an ongoing issue since many
countries have do not have consolidated data on the occurrences of fire.
As highlighted in Fig. 6, fires are more prevalent in the United States,
however, the highest number of deaths occur in Russia and India. This
can be seen in Fig. 7, which illustrates the distribution of fire deaths.
3.2. Analysis of technical and scientific research on fire protection
To verify scientific production the Web of Science database was used.
The research field was formed by topics including title, keyword, and
abstract. The search string Fire AND (Suppression OR Fighting OR Safety
OR Protection) was used. Fig. 8 shows the number of publications on fire
protection by year.
The trend is once again described by the cubic function, displayed as
Equation (4), with an R-square of about 0.98. This data and its fit show
the rapid increase in publications on this topic over the past three
decades.
y = − 8.27 × 108 − 8.27 × 108 x − 622.68x2 + 0.10x3 (4)
To examine the correlation among the most cited words in the
publications, a network was built with the aid of VOSviewer software.
searches, where each keyword is represented by a circle. The diameter
indicates the number of links with other keywords. The thickness of the
line between each item corresponds to the frequency of co-occurrences
5
Fire and Rescue Department Ministry of Emergency Management. Audi­
ence/Statistics. Fire and Rescue Bureau. Available at: https://www.119.gov.cn
/gongkai/sjtj.
6
Accidental Deaths Suicides in India (ADSI) reports published by National
Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) Available at: https://ncrb.gov.in/en/adsi-report
s-of-previous-years.
G.P. Araujo Lima et al.
Fig. 7. Spatiotemporal distribution of deaths caused by fire.
Fig. 8. Publications on the topic of fire protection theme.
of the keywords and the proximity between items in the network
roughly reflects the relationship of the items in terms of co-occurrences.
Each color represents a cluster, which is a grouping of items by degree of
affinity. Each item can belong to only one cluster, even if it has affinity
with words from other clusters [38,55].
The Web of Science generated 2074 distinct keywords from the string
“Fire AND (Suppression OR Fighting OR Safety OR Protection)”. For
better visualization, two networks were plotted, one with 15 and other
with 42 keywords. In the network with 15 keywords, Fig. 9a, the min­
imum number of occurrences of a keywords was 10 times. In the
network with 42 keywords, Fig. 9b, the minimum number of occur­
rences of a keywords was 5 times. The cluster in red is linked to fire
simulation and modeling, while the cluster in green is related to the area
of materials and increased fire resistance. The cluster in blue corre­
sponds to fire safety, impact, and risks.
5
International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308
By analyzing the network of words correlated to the topic of fire
protection and safety, it is possible to generate a set of words that shows
the main areas of interest in research related to fire protection. These
surveys are important to design optimal escape routes through computer
simulation. These surveys also show that the development of a safety
project and the use of protective equipment to act effectively in cases of
incidents is vital [56,57]. Modeling is also used to predict wildfire
behavior in different locations depending of terrain, weather and fuel
bed characteristics. These models are of fundamental for establishing
preventive measures, allocating suppression resources, issuing evacua­
tion orders during a wildfire and preparing emergency planning and
decision making [58,59]. Furthermore, computer simulation can be
used to improve fire protection systems, propose different parameters to
improve efficiency and analyze the risks of fire occurrences [60–62].
Material science also has the potential to improve fire suppression by
developing materials with greater fire resistance. Improved nanotech­
nology can be implemented in fire suppression systems such as extin­
guishers and closed-circuit suppression systems. Nanotechnology or
hybrid materials can also be used in equipment manufacturing, con­
struction materials, and firefighting clothing to increase fire resistance
and mechanical strength [39,63–65].
The blue cluster, which corresponds to fire protection, risk and fire
safety engineering, shows lines of research related to the behavior of
fire. It highlights the fact that fire varies in time and space, depending on
environmental characteristics, quantity and type of combustion mate­
rial, oxidizer availability, and fire temperature. Underwriters Labora­
tories (UL) carried out an experiment on two rooms of equal dimensions
but with different furnishing materials to explore how fires spread in
different domestic environments. One room was filled with hardwood
antique furniture while the other contained modern furniture composed
of synthetic materials. The fire was ignited in both rooms at the same
time and equivalent locations. However, the room with antique furni­
ture reached flashover in approximately 29 min and 30 s, while the other
one with modern furniture reached flashover in 3 min and 30 s [66].
Several studies show that fire varies in time (years) and space (coun­
tries), highlighting the importance of understanding fire behavior for
the development of pertinent of protection, safety, and firefighting
G.P. Araujo Lima et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308

Fig. 9. Correlation network among the most cited words.

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G.P. Araujo Lima et al. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 61 (2021) 102308

Table 2
Main categories and subcategories according to IPC.
Category Subcategory Reference

A62C - Life-saving; fire-fighting A62C 27/00 - Fire-fighting land [76–80]

G08B - Signalling or calling
systems; order telegraphs;
alarm systems
H01B - Cables; conductors;
insulators; selection of
materials for their conductive,
insulating or dielectric
properties
E04B - General building
Fig. 10. Patents concerning the theme of fire protection. constructions; walls, e.g.
partitions; roofs; floors;
ceilings; insulation or other
protection of buildings
vehicles; A62C 37/00 - Control of
fire-fighting equipment; A62C 31/
00 - Delivery of fire- extinguishing
material
G08B 17/00 - Fire alarms; Alarms [81–84]
responsive to explosion; G08B 17/
10 - Actuation by presence of
smoke or gases; G08B 17/06 -
Electric actuation of the alarm, e.
g. using a thermally-operated
switch
H01B 7/29 - By extremes of [85–88]
temperature or by flame; H01B 7/
295 - Using material resistant to
flame; H01B 7/18 - By wear,
mechanical force or pressure
E04B 1/94 - Against fire (fire- [82,
fighting A62C; impregnation of 89–91]
wood or similar materials B27K;
Fireproof doors E06B 5/16); E04B
1/80 - Slab-shaped; E04B 1/76 -
specifically with respect to heat
only (heat insulation in general
F16L 59/00).

Fig. 10 only includes data up to 2018 to account for the patent se­
crecy time of 18 months. Fig. 10 shows that fire protection technology is
emerging in the private sector, since there is a growth of patents filed in
recent years. To understand the profile of these patents, the main cate­
gories in which they are inserted were analyzed, according to the In­
ternational Patent Classification (IPC). The result is illustrated in Fig. 11.
Table 2 shows the main categories and subcategories related to In­
ternational Patent Classification.

4. Conclusion

This study presented an exploratory analysis of statistical data

Fig. 11. Main categories of patents by IPC classification.
strategies [67–70].
The science of fire behavior is more advanced in areas related to built
environments than wildfires in less developed environments [71]. An
emerging issue in understanding fire behavior is the wildland-urban
interface (WUI) which consists of areas where urban spaces and for­
ests mix, creating a potential for forest fires to ignite buildings present in
the urban environment. This can have devastating ecological and so­
ciological consequences [72–74]. Wildfires and efforts to understand the
effects of wildland-urban-interfaces are strongly related to satellite
monitoring of Wireless Sensor Network (WSN), Artificial Intelligence
(AI), Internet of Things (IoT), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) and Big
Data Analytics for Satellite Image in literature [71,75].
Technical production was also analyzed through patent searches.
The review was carried out on Derwent Innovation patent base. The
search field selected was the title, abstract, and revindication, with the
same search string as the scientific research: Fire AND (Suppression OR
Fighting OR Safety OR Protection). Over the past two decades there has
been a marked increase in related patents, which is illustrated in Fig. 10.
The tendency is described by a cubic function, Equation (5), with an
R-square of approximately 0,98. There has been an exponential increase
in patents over the past 20 years.
y = − 2.37 × 1010 + 3.54 × 107 x − 17658.28x2 + 2.94x3 (5)
referring to fires and a prospective study using scientific and technical
documents in the area of safety and fire protection. The behavior of
scientific and technical production regarding safety and protection was
analyzed to identify the main types of fires, trends in the number of
occurrences, and deaths caused by fire. This analysis also led to an
identification of developing aspects in this area of study.
Data reported by CTIF – International Technical Committee for the
Prevention and Extinction of Fire, from around 39 countries between
1993 and 2017, was extracted, and plotted to highlight trends over time.
The same approach was applied to scientific data from ScienceDirect
and Web of Science, and technical data from Derwent Innovation. To
assess the scientific production, a correlation network was created from
the most cited topics in the searches. To emphasize trends in technical
production, the main categories of international classification of patents
were identified.
The results show that fires occur most frequently in structures. The
number of occurrences and deaths from fire have decreased over time,
however, they are still significant values. About 3.7 million fires cause
42 thousand deaths per year, according to an average of 39 countries
between the years of 1993 and 2017. Of these, the United States is the
country with the highest occurrence of fires and Russia and India are the
countries with the highest number of deaths.
Scientific and technical research has increased over time. Scientific
articles focus on experimental tests as well as modeling and simulating
the behavior of fire, with the goal of proposing evacuation routes,
analyzing fire risks, optimizing protection and combat systems, and
developing new materials. Meanwhile, patents primarily focus on fire­
fighting systems, detection and alarms, electrical conductors, and

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