Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Headlines
(Global Economy) (Indian Economy) (Economic Calendar) (Global and Domestic Stock Markets) (Derivative Analysis) (Technical Analysis) Nifty July Futures closed at 5545.55 Nifty Resistance levels are at 5690 5740 and Supports at 5570 5535 US Consumer Prices rose 0.3% in June Food inflation fell to a three-week low of 7.58% for the week ended July 9
(Weekly Recommendations) BHEL & HINDOILEXP (Sector & Company Highlights) (MF Industry update)
US
EU
Japan
UK
China
Brazil
Russia
Indian Economy
India's services exports stood at USD 11.83 bn in May, 2011, up almost 3.2% in comparison to April. The country's total receipts from services exported stood at USD 11.46 bn in April, 2011. Imports of services were also up 2.8% in May at USD 7.08 bn, compared to USD 6.88 bn in April. The new Consumer Price Index introduced earlier this year stood at 108.8 points in June, up from 107.1 points in May. In May, the overall CPI was 107.1 points, while the indices for rural and urban consumers were reported at 108.7 and 105.1 points, respectively. The new CPI is intended to reflect the actual movement of prices at the micro-level and help policymakers like the RBI in better framing of decisions. Rising inflationary pressure has forced Indian consumers to cut down spends during the second quarter of 2011, despite optimism about job prospects and the state of personal finances, according to a survey by the Nielsen Company. The consumer confidence level slipped by 5 points to 126 index points in the second quarter of 2011 from 131 points in the previous quarter. Amid a likely moderation in industrial output, the government lowered its GDP growth projection for 2011-12 to 8.6% from the earlier estimate of about 9%. While the Economic Survey had projected GDP expansion in FY'12 at 9%, the Reserve Bank later lowered it to 8%. Food inflation fell to a three-week low of 7.58% for the week ended July 9 on the back of cheaper pulse prices and a high base last year. Inflation of overall primary articles stood at 11.13% during the week under review, down from 11.58% in the previous week. Meanwhile, inflation of non-food articles was at 15.50% for the week ended July 9, compared to 15.20% in the previous week.
Headline Inflation b y WPI (June11) Annualized Rate (Current) Headline Inflation (W PI) Primary Produc ts Fuel Power and Lubric ants Manufac tured Goods
Source: CCIL
INR Exchange Rate (As on Jul y 22, 2011) Current USD GBP Euro Yen 44.38 72.34 63.87 56.45 1 Week Change Weekly 1 Year 46.80 72.08 60.37 53.66 8.42% 8.08% Change Annual -5.17% 0.36% 5.80% 5.20%
44.53 -0.34% 71.91 0.60% 62.98 1.41% 55.86 1.06% Debt Market Yields
Economic Calendar
India Date 26-Jul 26-Jul 26-Jul 28-Jul 28-Jul 28-Jul Event REPO Cutoff Yield Cash Reserve Ratio Reverse Repo Rate Food Articles WPI YoY Fuel Power Light WPI YoY Primary Articles WPI YoY Period 26-Jul 26-Jul 26-Jul 16-Jul 16-Jul 16-Jul Prior 7.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.6% 11.9% 11.1% US Date 26-Jul 26-Jul 27-Jul 27-Jul 28-Jul 28-Jul 28-Jul 29-Jul Event Consumer Confidence New Home Sales MBA Mortgage Applications Fed's Beige Book Initial Jobless Claims Continuing Claims Pending Home Sales YoY GDP QoQ (Annualized) Period JUL JUN 22-Jul 23-Jul 16-Jul JUN 2Q A Prior 58.5 319K 15.5% 418K 3698K 15.5% 1.9%
Sectoral Indices BSE AUTO BSE METALS BSE BANKEX BSE IT 8859.46 14762.11 12908.66 5932.69 Weekl y Gainers (BSE 100) Petronet GSPL 174 108.15 Weekl y Losers (BSE 100) Crompton Greaves Exide 182.55 149.80 Weekl y Turnover (in INR Bn) BSE NSE CASH NSE F&O 145.50 511.37 5968.10 -24.88% -11.18% 19.51% 15.67% -1.49% 1.04% 0.48% 1.30%
Outlook
Indian markets traded mixed with range bound activity during the week. Inflation for the week saw decline over the previous week. On the derivatives front, put writing is seen at 5500 and call writing is seen at 5700-5800, suggesting 5500-5700 to be the trading zone for the July series. With inflation still at high levels, RBI is likely to hike the rates by 25 bps in the coming meeting of July 26. market participants are keeping a watch on the RBI policy. Some short term correction is again likely in the broader markets, mainly in Bank Nifty, Auto and Realty stocks. Results to watch: Bank of India, Mastek, Sterlite, NTPC, REC, GT Offshore, TTML, Asian Paints, Maruti, JSW Steel, BHEL, Visa Steel, BGR Energy, Lupin.
Institutional Activit y in INR Bn (Weekl y) Institutions FIIs DIIs Net Inflow -0.22 6.08
Market Snapshot Nifty July Futures closed at 5645.55 (Premium of 11.6 over the Nifty spot) Open interest Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 28 July): 19.59 mn. Open interest Bank Nifty FUTIDX (Expiry 28 July): 0.95 mn. India VIX for the week ended at 7.91, down 2.04 from previous weeks close (19.95). In the week VIX touched low of 17.27 and high of 20.40. Weekly Open Interest Analysis (Nifty Option)
14,000,000 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 5300 5400 5600 5700 5500 5200 5900 6000 5800 5000 5100
OI
Across all expiries, open interest is highest at the 5700, 5800 call options, while open interest in the put options is highest at 5500, 5300 strike prices, suggesting 5300-5700 to be the trading zone for Nifty index in short term.
Strik e
Change in OI
5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000
Sector Wise OI Change: Bank, Metal & Mining, IT sectors saw gains in OI.
OI-Change
2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 5400 5300 5600 5900 5700 (500,000) (1,000,000) 6000 5800 5000 5500 5100 5200
Strike
Cement CapitalGoods IT
Sectors
Pharma Auto Metal&Mining Oil&Gas Realty Bank Power 400% 450% 300% 350% -50% 0% 50% -100% 500% 150% 200% 250% 100%
% Change in OI
% Change in OI
Nifty PC Ratio
1 0.98 0.96 0.94 0.92 PCR 0.9 0.88 0.86 0.84 0.82 0.8 18-Jul 19-Jul 20-Jul 21-Jul Date 22-Jul
PRAJIND RUCHISOYA ALBK UNIONBANK PETRONET COLPAL DCHL IGL JINDALSWHL MRPL
25.37% 0.15% 5.52% 1.53% 20.51% -1.22% 5.87% 3.48% 0.37% 0.87%
84.56% 0.30% 15.31% 50.36% 116.57% 79.25% -0.84% 2.63% 4.00% 16.19%
7929.29% 3379.69% 1993.75% 1607.40% 1529.80% 1442.58% 1297.89% 1040.52% 875.20% 712.42%
(Source Iris) Conclusion Last week Nifty shut on a positive note @ 5634 and up by 53 points from the previous week's close. Technically Nifty on weekly chart has formed bullish candle stick pattern with lower shadow, which shows sideways sentiment in coming sessions. Nifty spot on weekly has opened at 5581.75 and made a low of 5532.70 and made a high of 5645.40 then finally closed positive at 5634. Stochastics and the RSI are slightly overbought and sideways signaling that buying pressure at support levels are possible short-term. The close above the 65 day moving average (5540) indicates the short term trend could be turning sideways to positive. Stochastics trending lower at midrange will tend to reinforce a move lower especially if resistance levels are taken out. The market setup is somewhat sideways trend with trading range between 5540-5700. The next area of resistance is around at 5690-5740. So Nifty appears to be sideways trading on weekly chart having supports at supports at 55705535 levels. For short term trading long positions, stop loss of 5530 is advisable. Weekly Nifty has resistance at 5690-5740 and supports at 5570-5535. Weekly Sensex has resistance at 18900 19100 and supports at 18565 18435. Weekly Bank Nifty has resistance at 11500 11650 and supports at 11160 11025.
BHEL
LTP 1975.00 View: Positive Oscillators Analysis: RSI are positive crossover and are in oversold territory on daily chart reading, which indicate positive sentiment in stock momentum with decent volume support. Pattern Analysis: A clear multiple bottom formation and support zone at 1920-1955, which indicates stock may upside till resistance level, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction. Technical Analysis: BHEL has bullish candle stick formation on weekly chart with good volume support. Stock has strong above at resistance at 1980 levels. Weekly RSI has shown positive crossover into oversold territory which will tend to support reversal action if it occurs. The market tilt is bullish with the close above strong 65 day moving average resistance at 1980 on daily chart basis. The next area of resistance is around 2070-2120, while 1st support hits at 1950 and below there at 1920. It is also heading towards resistance zone at 2070.00. We recommended the stock at CMP and declines till 1950 with stop loss at 1895 (closing basis) for a target of Rs. 2070-2120.
LTP 181.60 View: Positive Oscillators Analysis: Stochastics and RSI are highly over sold territory and positive crossover from lower levels on weekly chart reading, which indicates positive sentiment in stock momentum. Pattern Analysis: A clear triple bottom formation and trend line support at 172.00, which indicates stock upside, is a confirmation of a trend in that direction with volume support. Technical Analysis: On Weekly chart HINDOILEXP has been trading above strong support zone at 172 and above short term moving average (20 DMA) at 178 levels, which indicates positive sentiment in short term trading and strong buying pressure around support zone at Rs.178-175, we expect the momentum to continue till resistance at 197-208 on the upside targets. And any genuine correction should see in stock price around support at 178-175, which should be used as a buying opportunity for the potential target 197-208.00. We recommended the stock at market and in the range 178-175, with stop loss below at 171(on closing basis) for a target of Rs. 197.00-208.
Information Technology
Rolta India Ltd. has acquired ACLS Systems FZC, a security-software solutions for computers and mobile phones. Polaris Software Ltd. has entered into a MoU with two Bangladesh-based banks (Sonali Bank and Bangladesh Commerce Bank) to form a joint venture. The JV will provide software solutions to both financial institutions. iGate Patni Computer Systems has bagged a contract worth INR 1.33 bn from US-based Weyerhaeuser NR to provide and manage IT infrastructure service operations.
Pharmaceuticals
Biocons subsidiary 'Syngene International' has entered into an agreement with US-based Endo Pharmaceuticals to expand their collaboration to develop molecules to fight cancer. Syngene and Endo will partner on two new discovery programmes, strengthening their ongoing alliance in cancer research for which they had inked a pact in March last year. As per the pact Endo would retain all rights to the molecules developed while Syngene would receive research fees, milestone payments and success fees from Endo. The USFDA had recently imposed an import ban on products made at Dr Reddy's Mexican plant for violation of current good manufacturing practices. The plant, which produces intermediates and API, had received a warning a letter from the USFDA last month. It is expected by the company that up to $30 million of its annual revenues could be impacted due to import ban. The company management expects the issue to be resolved by October this year. However the company has responded to FDA on the action plan and has voluntarily given an undertaking not to release the products until the issue is resolved.
-1-4-
Weekly Activity
Date Mutual Fund Activity
18-Jul-2011 19-Jul-2011 20-Jul-2011 21-Jul-2011 3.82 3.94 6.34 6.96 3.03 5.02 6.51 4.90 0.80 -1.09 -0.17 2.06 28.69 33.05 28.00 25.04 44.42 32.06 27.43 19.60 -15.73 0.99 0.57 5.44
Purchase
Purchase
FII Activity
18-Jul-2011 19-Jul-2011 20-Jul-2011 21-Jul-2011 22-Jul-2011 Source: Accord Fintech 16.57 19.70 19.82 18.81 19.53 15.12 20.22 15.64 19.12 21.25 1.45 -0.53 4.18 -0.31 -1.72 13.03 11.32 11.41 4.39 2.89 9.18 8.22 9.83 6.06 11.06 3.85 3.11 1.59 -1.66 -8.16
Fund
Opens
Closes
Structure
Reliance FHF-XX23(G)
21-Jul
01-Aug
Close ended
20-Jul
28-Jul
18-Jul
28-Jul
DWS FTF-87(G)
15-Jul
28-Jul
21-Jul
28-Jul
Close ended
Mr. Y. D. Prasanna
UTI FTIF-XIV(369D)-(G)
20-Jul
28-Jul
Close ended
14-Jul
28-Jul
Close ended
13-Jul
27-Jul
Close ended
20-Jul
27-Jul
Close ended
21-Jul
27-Jul
Close ended
18-Jul
27-Jul
Close ended
Investment Objective To seek to generate regular returns and growth of capital by investing in a diversified portfolio of Central and State Government securities and Other fixed income/ debt securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme with the objective of limiting interest rate volatility. To seeks to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme. To seeks to generate income by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the duration of the scheme. To generate income by investing in debt and money market instruments maturing on or before the date of the maturity of the Scheme. To minimize interest rate risk by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities which mature on or before the date of the maturity of the scheme. To generate returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme. However, the scheme does not guarantee / indicate any return. There is no assurance that the funds objective will be achieved. To seek to protect capital by investing a portion of the portfolio in good quality debt securities and money market instruments and also to provide capital appreciation by investing the balance in equity and equity related securities. To achieve growth of capital through investments made in a basket of fi xed income securities maturing on or before the maturity of the scheme. To seek to generate returns and capital appreciation by investing in a portfolio of debt and money market securities. The Scheme will invest only in such securities which mature on or before the date of maturity of the Schemes. To generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). To seek to generate regular returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities/debt instruments maturing on or before the maturity of the Plan under the Scheme.
Benchmark
Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index Crisil Short-Term Bond Fund Index
Opens 21-Jul
Closes 26-Jul
UTI FTIF-XIII(370D)-(G)
Source: Accord Fintech
20-Jul
26-Jul
Close ended
Investment Objective To generate income through investments in Debt / Money Market Instruments and Government Securities maturing on or before the maturity date of the respective Plan(s). To generate returns by investing in a portfolio of fixed income securities maturing on or before the date of maturity of the scheme. However, the scheme does not guarantee / indicate any return. There is no assurance that the funds objective will be achieved.
1 Week
0.46 0.67 0.02
1 Month
5.75 5.81 7.19
1 Year
7.48 4.81 5.85
BETA
ALPHA
Expense Ratio
Category: Largecap
Franklin India Bluechip(G) HDFC Top 200 Fund(G) DSPBR Top 100 Equity-Reg(G) 215.85 212.63 101.55 0.16 0.58 -0.26 4.68 5.86 6.07 6.86 6.32 6.34 25.06 22.79 31.90 0.78 0.88 0.80 0.01 0.01 0.01 1.82 1.78 1.85
1 Week
0.17 0.16 0.14
1 Month
0.80 0.79 0.54
1 Year
7.87 7.33 6.45
YTM
9.43 0.00 0.00
Expens e Ratio
0.14 0.80 0.60
Category: Liquid
HDFC Cash Mgmt-Savings(G) IDFC Liquid-A(G) Tata Liquid-RIP(G) Source: Accord Fintech 21.04 1421.17 2299.54 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.72 0.75 0.69 7.67 7.94 7.31 6.54 6.83 6.67 0.00 0.00 8.55 71.00 64.96 63.30 65.00 60.48 0.00 0.41 0.20 0.65
Category
Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Debt Equity
Record Date
27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011 27-Jul-2011
Gross
11.14 1.30 1.97 1.97 2.02 1.27 2.07 10.00
Corporate
11.14 1.30 1.97 1.97 2.02 1.27 2.07 10.00
Non-Corporate
11.14 1.30 1.97 1.97 2.02 1.27 2.07 10.00
Disclaimer
This document has been issued by Unicon Securities Private Limited (UNICON) for the information of its customers only. UNICON is governed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India. This document is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely for your information and must not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. Persons into whose possession this document may come are required to observe these restrictions. The information and opinions contained herein have been compiled or arrived at based upon information 74 obtained in good faith from public sources believed to be reliable. Such information has not been independently verified and no guarantee, representation or warranty, express or implied is made as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. All such information and opinions are subject to change without notice. This document has been produced independently of any company or companies mentioned herein, and forward looking statements; opinions and expectations contained herein are subject to change without notice. This document is for information purposes only and is provided on an as is basis. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete and this document is not, and should not be construed as an offer, or solicitation of an offer, to buy or sell or subscribe to any securities or other financial instruments. We are not soliciting any action based on this document. UNICON, its associate and group companies its directors or employees do not take any responsibility, financial or otherwise, of the losses or the damages sustained due to the investments made or any action taken on basis of this document, including but not restricted to, fluctuation in the prices of the shares and bonds, reduction in the dividend or income, etc. This document is not directed to or intended for display, downloading, printing, reproducing or for distribution to or use by any person or entity who is a citizen or resident or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, reproduction, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or would subject UNICON or its associates or group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. If this document is inadvertently sent or has reached any individual in such country, the same may be ignored and brought to the attention of the sender. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written approval of UNICON. This document is for the general information and does not take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual customer, and it does not constitute a personalized recommendation of any particular security or investment strategy. Before acting on any advice or recommendation in this document, a customer should consider whether it is suitable given the customers particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional advice. Certain transactions, including those involving futures, options, and high yield securities, give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. UNICON, its associates or group companies do not represent or endorse the accuracy or reliability of any of the information or content of the document and reliance upon it is at your own risk. UNICON, its associates or group companies, expressly disclaims any and all warranties, express or implied, including without limitation warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the document and any information in it. UNICON, its associates or group companies, shall not be liable for any direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind with respect to the document. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, on any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Unicon Securities Private Limited.
Address: Wealth Management Unicon Financial Intermediaries Pvt. Ltd. 2nd Floor, Vilco Center, Subhash Road, Mumbai 400054 Ph: 022 30391556 Email: wealthresearch@unicon.in Website: www.unicon.in