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Grayscale The Postmodern Portfolio
Grayscale The Postmodern Portfolio
THE POSTMODERN
PORTFOLIO
Crypto Allocation Thesis
grayscale.com
THE POSTMODERN
PORTFOLIO
By David Grider, Head of Research, Matt Maximo, Research Associate &
Michael Zhao, Research Analyst
over the past three decades, which has required investors to take on greater
exposure to illiquid private market alternatives while taking on greater
portfolio volatility in order to maintain a 7.0% expected return (Figure 8).
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 2
assets have given previously constrained portfolio managers the ability to
allocate across a new vastly expanded risk and return spectrum (Figure 10
& 11). While crypto assets have delivered higher returns with higher volatility,
they have also offered handsomer rewards to investors with higher Sharpe
Ratios or risk-adjusted returns than all other asset classes over the past three
years (Figure 12). Crypto assets have had low correlations with global asset
classes and moderate correlations with other crypto assets, giving them an
attractive portfolio diversification benefit (Figure 13).
In our view, crypto assets are here to stay and have the ability to continue
positively impacting investment portfolios over the long term. Investors are
already turning towards crypto assets for enhancing portfolio characteristics
and are looking within the crypto category for an increasing range of diversified
assets and themes. As the investment environment evolves, investors must
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
evolve their portfolios, and crypto assets are becoming a key component of The
Postmodern Portfolio.
1. Portfolios are for illustrative purposes only and don’t reflect the inclusion of other alternatives asset categories.
2. Sharpe Ratio is a measure that indicates the average return minus the risk-free return divided by the standard deviation of return on
an investment.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 3
Table of Contents
4
Global 60/40+Crypto Portfolio 17
6
A New Portfolio Evolution 22
7
Appendix 23
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 4
An Emerging Asset Category
4 Others
Crypto
5 Ethereum
6 Bitcoin
Private Equity
Real Estate
EXCESS RETURN POTENTIAL
Small Cap
Equity
Mid Cap
Large Cap
Mezzanine Debt
Credit
Sub Debt
Senior Debt
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
Govt. Debt
US Treasuries
INVESTMENT RISK
3. Grayscale, John Street Capital inspired, Illustrative generalization based on data from Figure 10, Figure 11, and Appendix 3
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 5
Crypto assets blend the dynamics of investing in emerging markets, the
technology sector, and venture capital to provide exposure to the next wave
of the internet – Web 3.0 Cloud Economies (Figure 2). Crypto assets enable
investors and users to have direct ownership and control over internet
economies. Broadly speaking, the evolution of the web can be broken down into
three distinct periods that have led to crypto Web 3.0:
• Web 1.0: Connected the world online and allowed everyone to share
information, but the web was static and not owned by anyone.
1 • Web 2.0: Brought everyone onto platforms where users could have rich
interactions, but the technology companies owned the digital ecosystems
2 and the value created by users’ online activities.
• Web 3.0: Reorganizes the world onto crypto networks where global internet
3
communities now have the ability to own digital property and form a new
4 asset category of emerging market crypto cloud economies that users own
and control.
5
Web 3.0
Own
Web 2.0
Write
Web 1.0
Read
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
4. Grayscale
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As Web 3.0 cloud economies continue to develop, the crypto ecosystem has
attracted a rapidly growing user base that has been tracking the growth of the
internet. Crypto users have grown to 220 million as of 2021, putting Web 3.0
adoption at roughly where the internet adoption was during 1999 (Figure 3).
3
Internet Users
4 Crypto Users
Crypto assets are already capturing a shift in value from the legacy technology
sector. Over the past decade, crypto tokens have grown to more than $2.2 trillion
in market value, which, like user adoption, roughly tracks the technology sector’s
market cap in early 1999. However, while the crypto market has experienced
strong absolute growth, it is reassuring that investors are nowhere near “partying
like it’s 1999,” in relative terms.
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
During the late 1990s, many knew the internet would change everything, and
they were right, but the timing was wrong, which led to the tech stock dot-com
bubble which peaked at ~$5.2 trillion in the early 2000s. While the technology
sector dominates the global economy today, representing ~$16.8T in market
value or ~24% of the global stock market, it took years for prices to catch up to
their prior valuation peak.
5. Internet Users: 1995 to 1999, Crypto Users: 2017 to 2021, Worldbank, Cambridge, Crypto.com
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 7
On the other hand, crypto assets today are only ~3% of the global stock market
value vs. ~14% for the technology sector in Q1 1999 (Figure 4). When viewed
through this lens, crypto assets are even earlier in their market valuation cycle
than the internet was in the late 1990s.
2
20%
3
15%
4
5
10%
6
5% 3.0%
7
0%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Underscoring where crypto assets are in their investment cycle, the market
has only recently become large enough to be included in institutional
portfolios alongside other mainstream assets. The investable crypto universe
today stands at a market size of ~$2.7 trillion, making the category now above
~1% of core global financial assets (Figure 5). For perspective:
of ~$150 billion, or ~5% of the crypto category, and are ~3% of the total
private equity market.
6. Quarterly Data: 3/31/95 to 12/31/21, Global Stock Market Value (Bloomberg: MSCI ACWI; Indx Mkt Cap), Technology Sector
(Bloomberg: MSCI ACWI/Information Technology; Indx Mkt Cap), Crypto Assets (Tradingview: Total Crypto Market Cap)
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 8
FIGURE 5: GLOBAL FINANCIAL ASSET CLASS MARKET SIZE7
7. Appendix 1
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 9
Macro Investment Environment
Institutional investors now have the ability to use crypto assets as a new
instrument for portfolio construction in an unprecedented macro environment for
traditional assets. In this new paradigm, not taking risks is one of the biggest risks.
1
The global money supply has doubled over the past decade as central banks
2 have attempted to stimulate economies and finance rising debt levels caused by
deficit spending. Global liquidity growth has pushed nominal rates to multi-decade
3
lows, inflation to multi-decade highs, and real rates into negative territory for many
4 investors (Figure 6).
5
FIGURE 6: GLOBAL M2 MONEY SUPPLY & REAL INTEREST RATES8
6
7 $110T Global M2
Real Rates
$100T
$90T
$80T
$70T
$60T
$50T
$40T
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
-1%
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
-2%
-3%
-4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
8. Date: 2/1/10 to 12/2/21, Bloomberg, Global M2 Proxy Includes: US, China, EU, Japan, South Korea, UK, Taiwan, Canada, Switzerland,
Russia, Brazil, Mexico, Real Rates Based On: US 10 Year Yield Less Core CPI
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 10
Monetary policy decisions have elevated traditional financial asset valuations
across the risk curve. For investors who are exclusively mandated to traditional
assets, there is no alternative but to accept increasingly distorted financial market
conditions. Cash-flush investors who are confined to the alternative of bond
prices – which stand anywhere between ~20x (high yield) to ~75x (global bonds)
their annual yield (inverse yield) – have in turn bid stock PEs towards the high end
of their 10-year historical averages (Figure 7).
2
Average Average
3 Range Range
Current Current
4
5 25x 250x
7 20x 200x
Yield (Inverted)
15x 150x
PE Ratio
10x 100x
5x 50x
0x 0x
Global US Non-US EM Global IG Global Global HY US Govt.
Equities Equities DM Equities Bonds 10Y
Equities
portion of their portfolio to less liquid private market alternative assets, while
taking on greater volatility, in order to maintain a 7.0% expected return (Figure 8).
9. Date: 1/1/10 to 12/27/21, Bloomberg, Global Equities (MSCI ACWI), US Equities (S&P 500), Non-US DM Equities (MSCI EAFE),
EM Equities (MSCI Emerging Markets)
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 11
FIGURE 8: ESTIMATES OF WHAT INVESTORS NEED TO EARN 7.0%10
2
U.S. Fixed Income 63%
3
5 Cash 98%
6
Non-U.S. Equity 23%
7
10. Callan
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 12
The Postmodern Portfolio Asset
For over a decade, The Postmodern Portfolio holding liquid crypto assets
has offered a solution to the increasingly challenging macro investment
environment. Crypto assets (Bitcoin as proxy) have been the highest returning
1 asset class for eight of the past 10 years (Figure 9).
7
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 13
The old capital allocation frontier, which historically constrained investors to a
more narrow spectrum of risk and return expectations, has been transformed by
the ability to include crypto assets within The Postmodern Portfolio (Figure 10).
FIGURE 10: THE OLD CAPITAL ALLOCATION FRONTIER OVER PAST THREE YEARS12
40%
1 US Tech Equities
35%
2
3
30%
4
5
25%
(Annualized)
US Large Equities
(Annualized)
7 20%
Return
Real Estate
15%
Gold EU Equities
Intl DM Equities
10%
TIPS Commodities
US High Yield EM Equities
US Invt Grade
EM HC Debt China Equities
5%
US Treasuries
Global Agg Debt
EM Currency
US Cash
0%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Volatility (Annualized)
Volatility (Annualized)
The new capital allocation frontier, which includes crypto assets, has vastly
expanded the ability for portfolio managers to allocate across a wider risk and
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
return spectrum (Figure 11). During the past three years, both Bitcoin and the
Crypto Basket (defined as a large cap crypto index covering over 70% of the
market) would have expanded the risk and return spectrum of the old capital
allocation frontier by several times.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 14
FIGURE 11: THE NEW CAPITAL ALLOCATION FRONTIER OVER PAST THREE YEARS13
140%
Bitcoin
Crypto Basket
120%
1 100%
2
Return (Annualized)
3 80%
Return (Annualized)
5 60%
7 40%
20%
0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Volatility (Annualized)
Volatility (Annualized)
It is no secret that crypto assets have generated higher absolute returns than
other asset classes, but with higher absolute volatility. While some have seen
this as a concern, the lesser known comparison is that crypto assets have also
been able to deliver higher risk-adjusted returns than other asset classes. Over
the past three years, crypto assets have offered the highest Sharpe ratios
when compared to all major asset classes. In other words, crypto assets have
come with higher absolute volatility, but they have rewarded investors more
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
handsomely than other asset classes for taking on that risk (Figure 12).
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 15
1.96
1.85
FIGURE 12: SHARPE RATIOS OF VARIOUS ASSET CLASSES14 1.96
1.85
1.19
1.11
0.97 1.02 1.19
0.85 0.89 1.11
0.77 1.02
0.71 0.97
0.65 0.65 0.66 0.68 0.85 0.89
0.51 0.52 0.53 0.53 0.56 0.56 0.71
0.77
0.46 0.65 0.65 0.66 0.68
0.33 0.35 0.56 0.56
0.27 0.27 0.51 0.52 0.53 0.53
0.46
0.16
0.33 0.35
0.27 0.27
0.16
(0.01)
(0.10)
(0.01)
(0.10)
(0.47)
1 (0.47)
2
Energy
TIPSTIPS
TIPSTIPS
Equities
Commodities
EU Equities
DM Equities
Bonds
US Treasuries
Equities
YieldYield
HC Debt
GoldGold
Equities
Equities
Funds
YieldYield
Equities
Basket
DebtDebt
Estate
Invt Grade
Invt Grade
US Dollar
Bitcoin
EM Currency
EM Equities
MBSMBS
DebtDebt
Energy
Equities
Commodities
EU Equities
Intl Equities
Bonds
US Treasuries
Equities
EMDebt
Equities
Equities
Funds
Equities
Basket
Estate
Invt Grade
US Grade
US Dollar
Bitcoin
EM Currency
EM Equities
US Govt
Global
GovtGovt
HighHigh
US High
US Agency
Agg Agg
Hedge
RealReal
US Mini
Crypto
3
China
US Large
US Small
Global
US Tech
US Govt
Global
EM HC
US High
US Agency
Global
Global
Global
Global
US Invt
Hedge
US Mini
Crypto
Intl DM
China
US Large
US Small
Global
US Tech
Global
Global
Global
Global
4
5 Crypto assets have historically had low correlations with other major asset
classes, offering a portfolio diversification benefit that has made them attractive to
6
investors. There has also been a less pronounced but still notable diversification
7 benefit within the crypto asset category between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the
Crypto Basket, which have had moderate correlations of 0.6 and 0.7 (Figure 13).
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 16
Global 60/40+Crypto Portfolio
$180
$170
Growth of a $100 Portfolio
$160
Growth of $100 Portfolio
$150
$140
$130
$120
$110
$100
$90
Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
16. HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. There is no guarantee that the
market conditions during the past period will be present in the future. Rather, it is most likely that the future market conditions will differ
significantly from those of this past period, which could have a materially adverse impact on future returns. Unlike an actual perfor-
mance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading or the costs of managing the portfolio. Also, since the trades have not
actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack
of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. We selected the timeframe for our analysis because we
believe it broadly constitutes the most complete historical dataset for the digital assets that we have chosen to analyze.
Bloomberg, Performance is shown from December 31, 2018 through December 31, 2021. Stocks are represented by the iShares MSCI ACWI ETF
(ACWI US Equity: Price). Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (LEGATRUU Index). Crypto Basket is represented
by the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC US Equity: Net Asset Value Per Share). Component asset weights are rounded to the nearest
whole percentage and are set as shown. Stocks & Bonds do not perfectly maintain a 60/40 weighting due to rounding. Portfolios are rebalanced
to their target weightings on the first day of each quarter. Portfolio Sharpe Ratio is calculated as the annualized excess return of the portfolio over
the 3-year US Treasury Yield divided by the annualized standard deviation of daily portfolio returns. Annualized figures are based on 252 trading
days. Portfolios are for illustrative purposes only and don’t reflect the inclusion of other alternatives asset categories.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 17
Increasing Crypto Basket exposure within a Global 60/40 Stock & Bond
Portfolio during the past three years would have continued to improve the
Sharpe Ratio or risk adjusted returns until the Crypto Basket surpassed a
~40% weighting (Figure 15).
FIGURE 15: SHARPE RATIO & ANNUALIZED RETURN OF HYPOTHETICAL STOCK, BOND, &
GLOBAL 60/40 PORTFOLIOS ADJUSTED TO INCLUDE CRYPTO EXPOSURE17
7
2.25
Crypto 30% Crypto 40% Crypto 50%
2.00 Crypto 20% 2.05 2.05
2.04
1.97
1.25
1.00
Crypto 0%
0.85
0.75
0.50
0.25
-
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Annualized Return
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
17. HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. There is no guarantee that the
market conditions during the past period will be present in the future. Rather, it is most likely that the future market conditions will differ
significantly from those of this past period, which could have a materially adverse impact on future returns. Unlike an actual perfor-
mance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading or the costs of managing the portfolio. Also, since the trades have not
actually been executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack
of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE
SHOWN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. We selected the timeframe for our analysis because we
believe it broadly constitutes the most complete historical dataset for the digital assets that we have chosen to analyze.
Bloomberg, Performance is shown from December 31, 2018 through December 31, 2021. Stocks are represented by the iShares MSCI
ACWI ETF (ACWI US Equity: Price). Bonds are represented by the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index (LEGATRUU Index). Crypto Basket
is represented by the Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC US Equity: Net Asset Value Per Share). Component asset weights are
rounded to the nearest whole percentage and are set as shown. Stocks & Bonds do not perfectly maintain a 60/40 weighting due to
rounding. Portfolios are rebalanced to their target weightings on the first day of each quarter. Portfolio Sharpe Ratio is calculated as the
annualized excess return of the portfolio over the 3-year US Treasury Yield divided by the annualized standard deviation of daily portfo-
lio returns. Annualized figures are based on 252 trading days. Portfolios are for illustrative purposes only and don’t reflect the inclusion
of other alternatives asset categories.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 18
Long Term Market Assumptions
In our view, crypto assets have the ability to deliver not just past but future
portfolio benefits for investors. Based on Grayscale’s current Long Term Crypto
Market Assumptions, we believe the asset category can offer higher expected
1 returns than nearly all other asset classes over the next few decades before
coming in line with other alternatives (Figure 18 & Appendix 3).
2
3 FIGURE 16: ASSET CLASS 7-YEAR, 15-YEAR, & 25-YEAR EXPECTED RETURNS18
4
7-Year Expected
7-YEAR Return
EXPECTED RETURN 15-Year
15-YEAR Expected
EXPECTED Return
RETURN 25-Year
25-YEAR Expected
EXPECTED Return
RETURN
5 Crypto Assets
U.S. private equity (buyout) 19.4%
26.6% 20.2%
17.6%
16.6%
16.3%
Global direct lending 9.5% 9.2% 8.9%
6 Europe large cap equities
China A shares
9.3%
8.5%
8.9%
7.8%
8.6%
7.3%
Global ex-U.S. large cap equities 8.4% 8.2% 8.0%
7 China-Broad market equities
Emerging large cap equities
8.6%
8.4%
9.7% 10.4%
9.1% 9.4%
Global infrastructure equity 8.0% 8.3% 8.4%
U.S. large cap equities 6.5% 7.0% 7.3%
U.S. core real estate 6.3% 6.5% 6.6%
U.S. small cap equities 5.7% 6.7% 7.3%
Global 60/40 portfolio 5.4% 6.0% 6.3%
Real estate mezzanine debt 5.3% 6.2% 6.6%
Hedge funds (global) 4.9% 5.8% 6.3%
U.S. bank loans 3.9% 4.2% 4.3%
Local currency EM debt 3.4% 4.0% 4.2%
USD EM debt 3.4% 4.5% 5.1%
U.S. high yield 2.9% 4.0% 4.7%
China government bonds 2.7% 3.4% 3.6%
U.S. inflation-linked government bonds 2.5% 2.9% 3.1%
U.S. Infrastructure debt 2.7% 4.5% 5.6%
Developed infrastructure debt 2.1% 3.7% 4.6%
U.S. agency MBS 1.4% 2.2% 2.5%
U.S. aggregate bonds 1.1% 2.1% 2.7%
U.S. government bonds (all maturities) 1.0% 1.8% 2.2%
Global ex-U.S. government bonds 0.9% 1.9% 2.5%
U.S. cash 0.8% 1.7% 2.1%
U.S. credit (all maturities) 0.8% 2.4% 3.3%
U.S. government (10+ years) -0.2% 1.0% 1.6%
U.S. credit (10+ years) -0.2% 2.3% 3.9%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Grayscale’s Long Term Crypto Capital Market Assumptions imply that the total
crypto market value and global stock market share could reach ~$10 trillion (~7.5%
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
share) over 7 years, ~$35 trillion (~12.5% share) over 15 years, and ~$100 trillion
(~17.5% share) over 25 years (Figure 19 & Appendix 3).
18. Grayscale Estimates: Crypto asset expected return assumptions based on forecasted total crypto asset market value (Figure 17) rela-
tive to current crypto asset market value (Figure 4: Crypto Tokens as of Grayscale Estimates: Crypto asset expected return assumptions
based on forecasted total crypto asset market value (Figure 17) relative to current crypto asset market value (Figure 4: Crypto Tokens as
of 12/31/2021). Assumptions do not factor in the impact of dilution and are not representative of an index price return.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 19
FIGURE 17: TOTAL CRYPTO ASSET MARKET VALUE & GLOBAL STOCK MARKET SHARE
IMPLIED BY OUR LONG TERM CRYPTO MARKET RETURN ASSUMPTIONS19
$200T Crypto Asset Mark et Value Global Stock Market Share% Crypto LTCMA CAGR%
30.0%
1
26.6%
2 $175T
24.6% $166T
24.1% 25.0%
3
$150T
20.2%
4 20.0%
20.0%
$125T 18.0%
17.5%
5 16.6%
15.5%
15.0% $100T
6 $100T 15.0%
12.5%
7
$75T 10.0%
$60T 10.0%
7.5%
$50T
5.0% $34T
5.0%
$25T $19T
2.3%
$11T
$7T
$2T
$0T 0.0%
FY 2021 FY 2026 FY 2028 FY 2031 FY 2036 FY 2041 FY 2046 FY 2051
(0 years) (5 years) (7 years) (10 years) (15 years) (20 years) (25 years) (30 years)
Grayscale’s LTCMAs are based on the view that the asset category can continue
to disrupt the tech sector over the next 30 years and grow at a rate that
sustainably approximates the internet’s long term growth as a share of the global
stock market (Stock market CAGR estimated using Blackrock expected returns:
Appendix 3).
The crypto asset global stock market share implied by our long term market
assumptions from 2026 (five years) to 2051 (30 years) is compared to the Web
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
2.0 tech sector’s global stock market share ranges from 1996 to 2021 in the figure
below (Figure 20).
19. Grayscale Estimates, Bloomberg, Appendix 3: Global stock market share of estimated MSCI ACWI Index Value; MSCI ACWI Index
Value estimated using weighted average Blackrock expected return of the MSCI USA Index & MSCI World Ex-US Index, Crypto Asset
Market Value based on 12/31/2021 total crypto market value (Tradingview) and current Grayscale Long Term Crypto Capital Market
Assumptions
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 20
FIGURE 18: CRYPTO GLOBAL STOCK MARKET SHARE ASSUMPTION FROM 2026 TO 2051
VS. GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY SECTOR SHARE FROM 1996 TO 202120
3 20% 20.0%
4
17.5%
5
6 15% 15.0%
7
12.5%
10% 10.0%
7.5%
5% 5.0%
0%
Web 2.0: 1996 Web 2.0: 1998 Web 2.0: 2001 Web 2.0: 2006 Web 2.0: 2011 Web 2.0: 2016 Web 2.0: 2021
(Web 3.0: 2026) (Web 3.0: 2028) (Web 3.0: 2031) (Web 3.0: 2036) (Web 3.0: 2041) (Web 3.0: 2046) (Web 3.0: 2051)
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
20. Grayscale Estimates, Bloomberg, Blackrock, Web 2.0 global stock market share based MSCI ACWI Information Technology Index
market value as a share of the MSCI ACWI Index. Time periods for Web 2.0 market share ranges are 1996: 3/31/95 (earliest data) to
12/31/96, 1998: 1/1/97 to 12/31/98, 2001: 1/1/99 to 12/31/01, 2006: 1/1/02 to 12/31/06, 2011: 1/1/07 to 12/31/11, 2016: 1/1/12 to 12/31/16, 2021:
1/1/17 to 12/31/2021 (Quarterly period ending data)
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 21
A New Portfolio Evolution
Crypto assets are here to stay and have the ability to continue positively
impacting investment portfolios over the long term, in our view. The emerging
category has given allocators a new alternative on the risk and return spectrum.
1 Crypto assets offering Web 3.0 exposure are still in their early phases, but have
experienced rapid user adoption that has been tracking early internet growth.
2 Crypto assets have recently become large enough to be included within an
institutional portfolio and are offering a new instrument for allocators to use in
3
an unprecedented macro environment that has driven down expected returns
4 while causing a greater shift towards alternative assets.
5 As the best returning asset class for eight of the past 10 years, crypto assets
have offered a hedge against inflation. Over the past three years, crypto
6 assets have demonstrated their ability to give allocators an asset that expands
7 risk and return potential while enhancing risk-adjusted returns and offering
a portfolio diversification benefit. Including a Crypto Basket within a Global
60/40 portfolio over the past three years would have increased the returns and
Sharpe Ratios until surpassing a ~40% weighting.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 22
Appendix
Sovereign Debt
1 US Bloomberg US Govt/Credit Bond Index 9/30/21
EU Bloomberg Pan-European Agg Treasury Index 9/30/21
2
Japan Japan Government Debt (USD) 9/30/21
3 China Bloomberg China Treasury + Policy Bank 12/31/21
UK JP Morgan 2022 LTCMA Report Estimates 6/30/21
4
Others JP Morgan 2022 LTCMA Report Estimates 6/30/21
5
Public Credit
6 US MBS Bloomberg US MBS Index 12/31/21
US Muni Bloomberg Muni Amount Outstanding 9/30/21
7
US Corp IG Bloomberg US Corporate IG Bond Index 12/31/21
US Corp HY Bloomberg US Corporate HY Bond Index 12/31/21
EU Corp IG Bloomberg Pan-European Agg Corp IG Index 12/31/21
EU Corp HY Bloomberg Pan-European Agg Corp HY Index 12/31/21
EM Corp Bloomberg: EM USD Agg Corporate Index 12/31/21
Public Equities
US MSCI USA Net Total Return USD Index 12/31/21
China MSCI China USD Price Return Index 12/31/21
EU MSCI Europe Ex UK Net Total Return USD Index 12/31/21
JP MSCI Japan Net Total Return USD Index 12/31/21
UK MSCI UK Net Total Return USD Index 12/31/21
Others MSCI ACWI & Frontier Markets Index (Less Above) 12/31/21
Alternatives
Bloomberg Gold Price & World Gold Council Supply
Gold 12/31/21
(end-2019)
Real Estate JP Morgan 2022 LTCMA Report Estimates 6/30/21
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 23
APPENDIX 2: ASSET CATEGORIES & THEIR REPRESENTATIVE INDEX21
21. Bloomberg
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 24
APPENDIX 3: EXPECTED RETURNS: GRAYSCALE: CRYPTO & BLACKROCK: OTHERS22
5 7 10 15 20 25 30
Asset year year year year year year year
Europe large cap equities 9.3% 9.3% 9.2% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 8.4%
U.S. large cap equities 6.3% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0% 7.2% 7.3% 7.4%
Emerging large cap equities 8.2% 8.4% 8.7% 9.1% 9.3% 9.4% 9.5%
1
Global ex-U.S. large cap equities 8.4% 8.4% 8.3% 8.2% 8.1% 8.0% 7.9%
2 U.S. small cap equities 5.5% 5.7% 6.2% 6.7% 7.0% 7.3% 7.4%
3 China-Broad market equities 8.4% 8.6% 9.1% 9.7% 10.1% 10.4% 10.5%
Global 60/40 portfolio 5.2% 5.4% 5.6% 6.0% 6.1% 6.3% 6.3%
4
China A shares 8.5% 8.5% 8.2% 7.8% 7.5% 7.3% 7.1%
5
U.S. aggregate bonds 0.9% 1.1% 1.6% 2.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9%
6 U.S. agency MBS 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
7 U.S. credit (all maturities) 0.5% 0.8% 1.5% 2.4% 3.0% 3.3% 3.6%
U.S. credit (10+ years) -0.7% -0.2% 0.8% 2.3% 3.3% 3.9% 4.4%
U.S. government bonds (all maturities) 0.9% 1.0% 1.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3%
U.S. government (10+ years) -0.4% -0.2% 0.3% 1.0% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8%
U.S. high yield 2.7% 2.9% 3.4% 4.0% 4.4% 4.7% 4.8%
U.S. inflation-linked government bonds 2.4% 2.5% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1%
Local currency EM debt 3.3% 3.4% 3.7% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3%
Global ex-U.S. government bonds 0.7% 0.9% 1.3% 1.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6%
U.S. bank loans 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
China government bonds 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7%
Global infrastructure equity 7.9% 8.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%
U.S. Infrastructure debt 2.4% 2.7% 3.5% 4.5% 5.2% 5.6% 5.9%
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
Developed infrastructure debt 1.8% 2.1% 2.8% 3.7% 4.2% 4.6% 4.8%
Real estate mezzanine debt 5.1% 5.3% 5.7% 6.2% 6.4% 6.6% 6.7%
Hedge funds (global) 4.7% 4.9% 5.3% 5.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5%
U.S. private equity (buyout) 19.6% 19.4% 18.7% 17.6% 16.9% 16.3% 16.0%
U.S. core real estate 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 6.5% 6.6% 6.6% 6.6%
Global direct lending 9.5% 9.5% 9.4% 9.2% 9.0% 8.9% 8.8%
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 25
About Grayscale Investments, LLC
7
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 26
Important Disclosures & Other Information
All content is original and has been researched and produced by Grayscale Investments, LLC (“Grayscale”) unless
otherwise stated herein. No part of this document may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other
publication, without the express consent of Grayscale.
This document should not be relied upon as research, investment advice, or a recommendation regarding any
products, strategies, or any security in particular. This material is strictly for illustrative, educational, or informational
purposes only and is subject to change.
This document does not constitute an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction
where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. There is not enough information contained in this document to
1 make an investment decision and any information contained herein should not be used as a basis for this purpose. As
with all investments, you should consult with your investment, legal and tax professionals before investing in digital
2 assets, as you may lose money. The price and value of assets referred to in this document and the income from them
may fluctuate. Past performance is not indicative of the future performance of any assets referred to herein.
3 Grayscale sponsors, manages or advises investment vehicles that may hold certain of the digital assets mentioned
herein (“Products”), and Grayscale and its respective employees may have positions in the digital assets or Products
mentioned herein. Certain information set forth in this document may contain “forward-looking statements”. Forward-
4
looking statements are provided to allow potential investors the opportunity to understand Grayscale’s beliefs
and opinions in respect of the future so that they may use such beliefs and opinions as one factor in evaluating an
5 investment. The information in this document is not a guarantee of future performance and undue reliance should not
be placed on it. Such forward-looking statements necessarily involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties,
which may cause actual performance and financial results in future periods to differ materially from any projections
6 of future performance of results expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Grayscale assumes no
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You should carefully consider each Product’s investment objectives, risk factors, fees and expenses before investing.
This and other information can be found in each Product’s private placement memorandum, which may be obtained
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that reports under the OTC Markets Alternative Reporting Standards, the OTC Markets website. Reports prepared
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Investments in the Products are speculative investments that involve high degrees of risk, including a partial or
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(based on digital asset(s) per share), less such Product’s expenses and other liabilities. Because each Product does
not currently operate a redemption program, there can be no assurance that the value of such Product’s shares will
reflect the value of the assets held by such Product, less such Product’s expenses and other liabilities, and the shares
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to, the value of the assets held by such Product, less such Product’s expenses and other liabilities, and such Product
may be unable to meet its investment objective.
The Products seek to provide exposure to digital assets. The value of digital assets is determined by the supply of,
or the demand for, digital assets in the global market for the trading of digital assets, which consists of transactions
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marketplace in comparison to the relatively large use of digital assets by speculators, thus contributing to the price
volatility that could adversely affect a Product’s investment in digital assets. Digital asset transactions are irrevocable,
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
and stolen or incorrectly executed digital assets transactions could adversely affect the value of Product’s investment
in the digital assets. Only investors who can appreciate the risks associated with an investment in digital assets should
invest in digital assets or the Products.
The shares of each Product are not registered under the Securities Act of 1933 (the “Securities Act”), the Securities
Exchange Act of 1934 (except for Products that are SEC reporting companies), the Investment Company Act of
1940, or any state securities laws. The Products are offered in private placements pursuant to the exemption from
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The Products are distributed by Genesis Global Trading, Inc. (Member FINRA/SIPC, MSRB Registered).
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 27
Note On Hypothetical Simulated Performance Results
HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. There is
no guarantee that the market conditions during the past period will be present in the future. Rather, it is most
likely that the future market conditions will differ significantly from those of this past period, which could have
a materially adverse impact on future returns. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not
represent actual trading or the costs of managing the portfolio. Also, since the trades have not actually been
executed, the results may have under or over compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such
as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed
with the benefit of hindsight. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY
TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF
FUTURE RESULTS.
The hypothetical simulated performance results are based on a model that used inputs that are based on
1 assumptions about a variety of conditions and events and provides hypothetical not actual results. As with all
mathematical models, results may vary significantly depending upon the value of the inputs given, so that a
relatively minor modification of any assumption may have a significant impact on the result. Among other things,
2 the hypothetical simulated performance calculations do not take into account all aspects of the applicable asset’s
characteristics under certain conditions, including characteristics that can have a significant impact on the results.
3 Further, in evaluating the hypothetical simulated performance results herein, each prospective investor should
understand that not all of the hypothetical assumptions used in the model are described herein, and conditions
and events that are not accounted for by the model may have a significant adverse effect on the performance of
4 the assets described herein. Prospective investors should consider whether the behavior of these assets should
be tested based on different and/or additional assumptions from those included in the information herein.
5
IN ADDITION TO OTHER DIFFERENCES, PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS IN A PRODUCT SHOULD NOTE THE
FOLLOWING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ASSUMPTIONS MADE IN THE
6 HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS INCLUDED HEREIN AND THE CONDITIONS UNDER
WHICH A PRODUCT WILL PERFORM, WHICH COULD CAUSE THE ACTUAL RETURN OF SUCH PRODUCT TO
DIFFER CONSIDERABLY FROM RETURNS SET FORTH BY THE HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE,
7 TO BE MATERIALLY LOWER THAN THE RETURNS AND TO RESULT IN LOSSES OF SOME OR ALL OF THE
INVESTMENT BY PROSPECTIVE INVESTORS:
FOR EXAMPLE, EACH TRUST WILL HOLD ONLY ONE DIGITAL ASSET, WHEREAS THE HYPOTHETICAL
SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS ARE INTENDED TO SHOW HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE OF
AN INVESTMENT MULTIPLE DIGITAL ASSETS. IN ADDITION, THE GENERAL MARKET DATA USED IN THE
HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS DO NOT REFLECT ACTUAL TRADING ACTIVITY AND
COULD NOT BE REPLICATED BY A PRODUCT IN ITS ACTUAL TRANSACTIONS. If actual trading activity was
executed at levels that differed significantly from the general market data used in the hypothetical simulated
performance, the actual returns achieved would have varied considerably from the results of the hypothetical
simulated performances and could have been substantially lower and could result in significant losses.
IN ADDITION, THE HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS DO NOT ASSUME ANY GAINS OR
LOSSES FROM TRADING AND THEREFORE DO NOT REFLECT THE POTENTIAL LOSSES, COSTS AND RISKS
POSED BY TRADING AND HOLDING ACTUAL ASSETS.
The hypothetical simulated performance results do not reflect the impact the market conditions may have had
upon a Product were it in existence during the historical period selected. The hypothetical simulated performance
results do not reflect any fees incurred by a Product. If such amounts had been included in the hypothetical
simulated performance, the results would have been lowered.
AS A RESULT OF THESE AND OTHER DIFFERENCES, THE ACTUAL RETURNS OF A PRODUCT MAY BE HIGHER
OR LOWER THAN THE RETURNS SET FORTH IN THE HYPOTHETICAL SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS,
WHICH ARE HYPOTHETICAL AND MAY NEVER BE ACHIEVED. Reasons for a deviation may also include, but are
by no means limited to, changes in regulatory and/or tax law, generally unfavorable market conditions and the
Risk Factors set forth below.
© 2021 Grayscale Investments, LLC. All rights reserved. The GRAYSCALE and GRAYSCALE INVESTMENTS logos,
graphics, icons, trademarks, service marks and headers are registered and unregistered trademarks of Grayscale
©2022 Grayscale Investments, LLC
Investments, LLC.
The above summary is not a complete list of the risks and other important disclosures involved in investing in any
Product or digital assets and is subject to the more complete disclosures contained in each Product’s offering
documents, which must be reviewed carefully.
PLEASE REVIEW IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES & OTHER INFORMATION AT THE END OF THIS PAPER. 28
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