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Growth and Inequality Revisited The Role Molero
Growth and Inequality Revisited The Role Molero
1. Introduction
This paper seeks to develop an innovative interpretative scheme regarding the relation-
ship between economic growth and income inequality, taking the primary, so-called
factorial or functional, distribution of income as the main explanatory variable. For
this purpose, two main lines of research are referenced: first, the Bhaduri-Marglin
1
See Felipe and McCombie (2012).
Page 4 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
Considering the role given to human capital by some new growth theorists (Romer,
1986; Lucas, 1988; and Barro, 1990), a branch of the literature has since studied the
effect of inequality on growth, shifting focus yet again to inequality as the explanatory
variable (see, for example, Alesina and Rodrik, 1994; Persson and Tabellini, 1994; Li
and Zou, 1998; Forbes, 2000; Barro, 2000). Overall, however, these works are incon-
clusive because their answers differ concerning the main question: Does inequality
damage or benefit growth?
Over the last decade, others (Banerjee and Duflo, 2003; Lundberg and Squire,
2003; Voitchovsky, 2005) have found more complex relationships between our vari-
ables. According to García-Peñalosa and Turnovsky (2006, p. 26), ‘[a]n economy’s
growth rate and its income distribution are both endogenous outcomes of the eco-
S = s ( R / Y ) (Y / Y * ) Y * => S = shz; Y* = 1
where R = total profits, Y = national income, Y* = full capacity utilization income
(treated as constant in the short run), h = R/Y = profits share, and z = Y/Y* = capacity
utilization degree.
Bhaduri and Marglin assume that firms set a given profit margin on their marginal
and average costs: a positive relationship between that profit margin and the profit
share. They state that, at a given level of labour productivity, there is a distributional
conflict: profit margin and share against the real wage. The real wage has a negative
effect on investment via a lower profit margin/share but a positive effect on consump-
tion. To determine which effect is stronger, they define an investment function that is
positively dependent on profit share and capacity utilization:
where I = investment.
Equating savings and investment, Bhaduri and Marglin imply for the above
equations that
shz = I ( h, z )
dz / dh = (I h
− sz ) / ( sh − I z ) ; I h = (dI / dh ) > 0
Page 6 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
The slope can be positive or negative depending on the relative response of invest-
ment and savings to variations in both profit share and capacity utilization. Bhaduri and
Marglin take as a standard assumption that savings are more reactive than investment
to variations in capacity utilization. Thus, the final effect of a change in profit share on
capacity utilization and, therefore, on output depends on whether investment is more or
less responsive than savings to the positive effect that capital share in GDP has on both.
On the one hand, if the response of investment to a change in the profits share is
stronger than that of savings, then investment is the dominant component of aggregate
demand and the growth is profit-driven. In this ‘exhilarationist regime’, the positive
effect of a higher profit share on investment is more important than its effect on sav-
ings. Given the assumed higher propensity to save from profits than from wages, the
2
It was Luigi Pasinetti (1962) who first considered the implications of this fact for the theory of the
relationship between income distribution and economic growth. He concluded ‘the irrelevance of workers’
propensity to save’ (Pasinetti, 1962, p. 274). However, this allows him to assert that the relation ‘between
capitalists’ savings and capital accumulation … is valid independently’ (op.cit., p. 275) of any assumption
on workers’ savings.
Page 8 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
determine that in any economy, a lower (higher) share of wages in national income
tends to generate a lower (higher) share of middle- and lower-income households in
the distribution of disposable income. The Gini coefficient of the personal income dis-
tribution is thus raised (lowered), in accordance with Leigh’s (2007, p. 628) finding of
a significant relationship between top income shares and the Gini index.
Conversely, a higher (lower) share of profits results in a higher (lower) share of the
richest households’ disposable incomes, thus raising (lowering) that coefficient. The
capital share, in fact, is linked to proprietor income, which now accounts for a higher
proportion in the top 1% and 10% of incomes than in the incomes of lower house-
hold percentiles and deciles. Consequently, an increasing profit share generates higher
income concentration in those top income shares. On the contrary, as labour’s share is
Hi = (Li
/ W ) ((W / Y )) + (C i
/ R) (R / Y )
where Hi= household i’s quintile share in total available income, Li = household i’s
quintile labour income, W = sum of wages, Y = national income, W/Y = wages share,
Ci = household i’s quintile capital income, R = sum of profits, and R/Y = profits share.
If
L1 = L2 = L3 = … = Ln ; C1 = C2 = C3 = … = Cn
then the Gini index = 0 and the functional distribution will have no effect on interper-
sonal distribution of income.
If
Li = Ci ≠ Ln = Cn
Growth and inequality revisited Page 9 of 24
then the functional distribution will have no effect on the interpersonal distribution
of income, but wages and capital gains concentration will have an effect, making the
Gini index ≠ 0.
If
then the functional distribution will completely determine the interpersonal distribu-
tion of income.
If
then the functional distribution will thus affect the interpersonal income distribu-
tion depending on the degree of concentration of labour and capital incomes within
households. If labour incomes represent a large (small) share of low- and medium-
income households, then the regressive effect of the primary redistribution in favour of
profits would be large (small); by definition, the Gini index would worsen (improve).
With these simple relationships as a reference, the Bhaduri-Marglin framework can be
extended to analyse potential relationships between growth and inequality.
6. Empirical evidence: falling labour share, GDP growth and top incomes,
2000–2007
As already noted, the Bhaduri-Marglin Model has been applied to several national
economies. These include economies in Asia (China, India, Japan, Korea, Thailand,
Turkey), Europe (Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, the UK), North
America (Canada, the USA), South America (Argentina, Mexico) and also Australia
and South Africa. According to Stockhammer and Onaran (2012, p. 8), who review
these works, ‘most studies conclude that domestic demand is wage-led …. Thus demand
is profit-led only when the effect of distribution on net exports is high enough to offset
the effects on domestic demand, and this is likely only in small open economies’ (ital-
ics in original).
As also mentioned, there are other recent works that have tried to analyse the rela-
tionship between the functional and personal distribution of income. Daudey and
García-Peñalosa (2007) conducted such an analysis using a panel of observations
from 39 different countries; Giovannoni (2010) using a 26-country group; Adler and
Growth and inequality revisited Page 13 of 24
Schmid (2012) using German micro data; Schlenker and Schmid (2013) using a panel
of 17 European Union countries during the 2005–2011 period; and Wolff (2015)
analysing the long-run (1947–2012) relationship between top income shares and the
profit share in the United States economy. All these works agree with Daudey and
García-Peñalosa’s (2007, p. 825) conclusion that ‘a larger labour share is associated
with lower inequality’.
In this section, we will study the links between both processes by analysing the
trends followed by labour share, growth and top income shares in a panel of 20 coun-
tries. The selection of variables and countries is based on the availability of homo-
geneous data. The Annual Macroeconomic Database of the European Commission
(AMECO) provides the widest coverage of homogeneous data on the functional
3
As explained by Krämer (2010, p. 2), ‘[n]ational accounts provide the share of employees’ compen-
sation in total income, but do not identify separately the labour income of other categories of workers
(self-employed, employers, and family workers). The most common correction procedure is to augment
the employees’ compensation with compensation of other categories of workers by assuming that other
categories of workers earn the same average wage as employees’. This is what AMECO does by calculat-
ing the ‘adjusted wage share’ as [(Compensation of Employees / Employees) / (Gross Domestic Product /
Employment)], the same formulation proposed by Krämer (2010, p. 3).
Page 14 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
Figure 3b. Average Labour Share and Top 10% Income Share (20 countries sample), 1960–2012
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO, World Top Incomes Database
García-Peñalosa, 2007; Giovannoni, 2010; Adler and Schmid, 2012; Schlenker and
Schmid, 2013; Wolff, 2015), which point to the policies that reduced the labour share
to explain higher inequality during recent decades. The average top income reached its
peak in 2012 when the crisis had already deteriorated the labour share, and once the
composition positive effect on its share finished.
More detailed results for the 2000–2007 period are presented in Figures 4a and 4b,
which are similar to Figures 1a and 1b introduced in the previous section. Some trends
can be highlighted:
First, if China’s (where an exhilarationist regime prevails) data are removed from the
calculation, an upward trend line is drawn in Figure 4a that relates adjusted labour share
variation rates with GDP average growth rates. As previously stated, this points to the
predominance of wage-led growth regimes. This is consistent with Stockhammer and
Onaran’s (2012) finding, quoted earlier, of that predominance in those economies in
which the Bhaduri-Marglin Model has been applied. Contrary to the nature of their
regimes, however, a majority of countries are situated in the lower area of that figure. This
indicates a general trend of a falling labour share during the first years of the twenty-first
century, which has undermined growth. Only in China has that trend pushed growth
rates up substantially. In other countries, it has maintained growth rates below average.
Growth and inequality revisited Page 15 of 24
Second, in Figure 4b, a downward trend line is drawn, as expected. The falling labour
share has driven an increase in top income shares for the majority of the countries under
study. In some of these countries (mainly Denmark, Ireland and Italy), the top 10%
income share still rose despite increasing wage share. As stated in the previous sections,
this is due to the enlargement of labour earnings dispersion4. In other cases (mainly
Finland and Norway), the top 10% income share decreased despite the falling labour
share. As also stated, this would be due to a higher than usual share of capital incomes
in low- and/or medium-income households’ earnings5. However, despite the progression
Figure 4b. Labour Share and Top 10% Income Share in a Sample of 20 Countries, 2000–2007.
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO, World Top Incomes Database
4
According to OECD’s Employment and Labour Market Statistics data, in those countries where the top
incomes increased despite the rising labour share, the Decile 9/Decile 1 ratio increased between 2000 and
2007. In Denmark, it rose from 2.50 to 2.69, and in Ireland, it rose from 3.27 to 3.78. In Italy it increased
from 2.22 in 2000 to 2.36 in 2006.
5
Unfortunately, there are no available comparable data on capital income shares in household quantiles
of total earnings.
Page 16 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
of the indicators in those countries, there is a general trend showing that the greater the
decrease in the labour share, the larger the increase in the top income share.
If the sample is divided between those economies labelled profit-led and those labelled
wage-led in Stockhammer and Onaran’s (2012, pp. 21–22) reviewed works, the stated
trends are also confirmed. In the first case, profit-led economies (Australia, Canada
and China) present a strong positive relationship between the falling labour share and
GDP growth rates (Figure 5a). This also seems to be true for the relationship between
the share of wages on national income and top 10% income share progression in those
countries (Figure 5b). It is China’s economy that seems to drive the link between those
last variables. However, Australia and Canada contribute to the trend stated, as well.
In the case of wage-led economies, a positive relationship is shown between the
Figure 5a. Labour Share and GDP Growth Rates in Profit-Led Economies, 2000–2007.
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO and author’s own data for China.
Figure 5b. Labour Share and Top 10% Income Share in Profit-Led Economies, 2000–2007.
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO,World Top Incomes Database
Growth and inequality revisited Page 17 of 24
and Germany) have been accompanied by some of the lowest average growth rates.
The trend is as strong in the case of the relationship between the share of wages on
GDP and the top 10% income share progression (Figure 6b), although the inclusion
of Korea flattens the trend line. Even taking into account this exception, growth-ine-
quality relationships in wage-led economies seem to have been negatively affected by
pro-capital policies.
Overall, if the general trend lines in the evolution of the labour share, growth rates and
the top income share are put together, a picture similar to that in Figure 2a emerges. As
explained in the previous section, this figure shows the generalized negative effect that
a falling labour share has on both growth and inequality when stagnationist regimes
prevail. Consequently, the period before the crisis can be characterized as a phase of
Figure 6a. Labour Share and GDP Growth Rates in Wage-Led Economies, 2000–2007.
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO.
Figure 6b. Labour Share and Top 10% Income Share in Wage-Led Economies, 2000–2007.
Source: Author’s own calculations based on data from AMECO and World Top Incomes.
Page 18 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
The main implications of these trends are presented in the concluding section of the
paper. However, in the next section, the cases of China and the Eurozone are analysed
further to understand the implications of distributional policies in different growth
regimes.
6
Own calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics of China’s data.
7
Own calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics of China’s data.
Growth and inequality revisited Page 19 of 24
labour share caused external sales to become the primary source of final demand.
In addition, growing profitability due to lower labour costs and expanded exports
generated huge surpluses for businesses. As the main source of large internal savings
(He and Cao, 2007), the reinvestment of a large proportion of those profits explains
the increasing investment rates of the Chinese economy, which accounted for 39.5% of
GDP, on average, during the 1992–2007 period. Thus, the Chinese economy’s growth
path has become dependent on both exports and investment (Zhu and Kotz, 2010)
and, consequently, is profit-driven (Molero-Simarro, 2015). This is the way China
became the world’s second-largest exporter and the second-largest economy in 2007.
However, the path followed by the functional distribution generated the conditions for
the worsening of the personal distribution pattern.
9
Information on the content of the labour reforms approved are obtained from the European
Commission’s database LABREF.
Growth and inequality revisited Page 21 of 24
27.5%) and Spain (from 23.3% to 27.3%), compared to the Eurozone average (from
21.8% to 23.0%) and especially to the EU-27 (from 24.4% to 24.5%). All this has
generated intense social instability in those countries.
Following the results of the analysis presented in this paper, only a shift in economic
policy measures towards a wage share increase would reduce income inequality while
promoting higher rates of growth to substantially reduce unemployment rates and
ensure social stability.
8. Conclusions
To date, analyses have dealt with the causes of the falling wage share and of the increas-
10
As explained above, Piketty explains rising inequality as a consequence of the faster growth of wealth
in comparison to output, which, in his view, has led to the increase in the share of income from capital in
national income. In our view, the relationship is the other way around: the increase in the share of income
from capital has led to the faster growth of wealth in comparison to output due to capital gains concentra-
tion in top wealth shares.
Page 22 of 24 R. Molero-Simarro
the mounting capital share caused economies to grow below potential, contributing to
the slower growth of output in comparison to wealth, as highlighted by Piketty.
If a growth path is to be resumed in prevailing wage-led economies, the Bhaduri-
Marglin Model holds that pro-labour distributional policies are needed to reduce house-
holds’ financial leverage for private consumption. In the short run, these policies will
undermine profitability, but increased capacity utilization will improve total profits and
enable a response to the social crisis by reducing income inequality. Nevertheless, this
effective challenge to the top incomes will create resistance to those measures.
These conclusions notwithstanding, two assumptions still hamper the analysis. First,
only two sources of family income exist—wages and capital gains—and second, business
profits are entirely distributed. That said, if those assumptions are discarded the analy-
Supplementary material
Supplementary material may be found online at the OUP Journals website.
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