Trade policy
How Chinese overcapacity hits American workers
The risk is that Donald Trump has the wrong solution
1 Print edition | Finance and economics Jun sth 2017 |HAWESVILLE, KENTUCKY
ALUMINIUM smelting is sweaty work. Inside the Hawesville plant of Century, an
American aluminium producer, it can get so hot that the workers lie outside in the
blazing summer sun to cool off. Dennis Harbath, the plant manager, oversees
operations. He is wortied about the workers. “They have mental fatigue,” he says
The source of the stress is a number scrawled on a wall in white chalk. That is the
dollar price of a tonne of aluminium, set on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The
workers keep track of it on their smartphones. Their wives ask about it, too. “It's
hard to stay on the LME rollercoaster when trying to support a family,” says one.
A few years ago, they weren't particularly
aware of the price, says Andy Meserve, the
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2015, when the price plunged to below
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Washington $1,500 per tonne, prompting Century to
win shut down 60% of the plant's capacity and
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are running at full capacity. There were 14
in 2011
Dips and dives are always a feature of commodity markets. A fall in American
primary production could be part of a long-term trend towards recycled
aluminium. Coal powers aluminium production; workers complain of being
strangled by environmental regulation. But Mr Harbath thinks something fishy is
going on. Why, he asks, did his plant have to curtail capacity when its energy costs
are lower than in China?
The Trump administration is suspicious, too. On April 26th it triggered an
investigation into the aluminium industry to defend it against "unfair trade
practices and other abuses”. A public hearing on June 22nd will give the industry
the chance to air its grievances. (A similar investigation into steel is looming.)
There is some substance to the worries. The Chinese government doles out cheap
loans to its industry, encouraging overcapacity. Its output has soared in recent
years. Since China joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 2001, its
aluminium production has risen from 14% of the global total to 54% in 2016.
Its size gives it huge influence over the global price, which fell in 2015 when
Chinese demand did not keep pace with its gargantuan supply. Exporting
overcapacity makes for better domestic politics than cutting it, given the potential
for job losses. Without production curbs, analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch
predict the global aluminium market could be oversupplied by 8% by 2020.
The Trump administration is trying to seem tough. Its official investigation invokes
Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, which allows the president to
impose trade restrictions if he suspects imports are threatening national security.
When workers at the Hawesville plant saw the news of Mr Trump's investigation,
the plant hummed with excitement. Perhaps the action would restore those lost
jobs.To them, the link between aluminium and national security seemed natural
Wilbur Ross, Mr Trump's commerce secretary, mentioned that there was only one
American smelter left that makes high-purity metal of the sort that the armed
forces need. That one plant is in Hawesville; Messrs Harbath and Meserve both
brim with pride when they describe their high-purity aluminium. A sliver of
different metal the size of a child's finger can throw off the blend of an aluminium
pod with the capacity of a small swimming pool. “It's as close as you can get to.
marrying art and science,” boasts Mr Harbath.
They worry that foreign competition is crushing the life out of American supply.
Closed smelters take more than a year to restart, and few ever do. Of the workers
laid off at the Hawesville plant in October 2015, 200 had stayed on a recall list,
poised to come back if the plant returned to full capacity. Now there are only 112 on
the list; 88 have drifted into retirement or other careers. Once there are no more
American smelters left, the workers warn that foreigners will charge whatever they
want.
Some are more sceptical of the Trump administration's approach. Trade geeks
worry that the focus on national security is a smokescreen for protectionism. The
day after the announcement Harbor Aluminum, an industry consultant, estimated
that although America produces a third of its commercial aluminium needs, it spits
out triple the requirements of the Department of Defence.
The aluminium association, an industry body, commended the investigation. But
its statement at the time also made reference to the “entire aluminium value
chain’, A tariff, or indeed any measure that raises the aluminium price, would hurt
the metal’s many users, currently thriving on cheap aluminium and strong demand
from the auto industry.
The trouble is that there is a disconnect between the problem of Chinese
overcapacity and the tools available to the Trump administration. The president
could impose tariffs or a quota on aluminium. But around half of America’s
aluminium imports come from Canada, and only 6% from China (see chart). There
is little appetite within the industry to hit the Canadians. A tariff with a carve-out
for Canada could provide temporary relief for domestic smelters, but would not
pack the intended punch to China.
The Obama administration had identified a more direct solution. In its dying weeks
it filed a case at the WTO, suing China for its aluminium subsidies. Winning thecase would force China to drop its subsidies or face
WTO-sanctioned retaliation. But although this
approach wins the plaudits of both trade geeks and
the aluminium industry, it is teeth-grindingly
slow.
The Chinese authorities have been issuing official
instructions to shut down capacity but there isn’t
much evidence yet of results. Exports of semi-
fabricated aluminium have been rising quickly this
year. Some worty that some of this is misclassified
raw product, processed just enough to avoid
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China's 15% export tax, and a sign of excess aluminium capacity spilling on to
global markets.
At the Hawesville plant, the staff are unsure what exactly the Trump administration
will do. Mr Meserve had hoped the WTO could resolve the issue a bit more
diplomatically. They are clear on what they want: no handouts and a level playing-
field, In the meantime, at least, “the attention will help tremendously.”
This article appeared in the Finance and economics section of the print edition under the headline "Testing
‘Trump's metal”