EUR/JPY WEEKLY ANALYSIS

17 NOVEMBER 2018
( FREE EDITION )

MONTHLY ANALYSIS : On the monthly chart we can see that the price from March 2018 is
blocked between 127,000 and 132,000 with some shadows in the 125,000 and 133,000 area.
The price in September touched the bearish Trend Line before closing below 132,000 and this
gave way to a strong bearish move that led him to close below 128,000 last month.
Now the price started this month with strength and in the past few weeks it has once again
reached 130,000 but for now it has not found the strength to go higher.
Now we have to observe the price action for the rest of the month to see if the price can break
127.000.

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On this chart we can also note that the price is supported by a bullish Trend Line from June
2016 and personally I foresee a big movement at the break of one of these two Trend Lines.

MONTHLY CHART IN WHICH WE SEE THE PRICE BETWEEN THE TWO TREND LINES
 WEEKLY ANALYSIS : On the weekly chart we can see that the price in recent weeks has failed
to exceed 133,000 and after having touched it twice has started a collapse that led him a month
ago to close below 130,000 and this was a big bearish signal.
The price in the last weeks formed a big bearish candle that closed below 128,000 and this was
a clear bearish signal for me but the price the next week has come back above 128.000 and
has close the weekly candle just below 128.500.
The price last week reached 130,000 but did not find the strength to go beyond this level and
closed the week forming a big "Shooting Star" that closed under 128,500 providing a clear
bearish signal.
The price this week tried to break the 128,000 support again but without success and closed
the week just below 128,500 but with a big lower shadow of more than 100 pips.
For now this graph gives us no particular signs and we will have to wait patiently for the
opening of the next seventh to get more precise information.

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WEEKLY CHART WITHOUT INDICATORS

VIP CHANNEL ONLY

WEEKLY CHART WITH PIVOT POINTS AND MOVING AVERAGES

DAILY ANALYSIS: On the long-term daily chart we can see how the price from March is blocked
between 125,000 and 133,000 without a defined general direction.
The price about two months ago tried to overcome the upper part of this rectangle but without
success and after this touch the price started a bearish movement that brought him under
128,000 in the last weeks.
After this closing below 128,000 the price has formed a large Hummer that brought the price
has started a bullish movement that has led him in recent weeks has overcome the trend line
lowered that has been holding the price for about ten months and this could be a clear signal
bullish.
The price during the last week has risen up to 130,000 but without finding the strength to go
higher and after two "Shooting Star" during Friday the price has formed a big bearish candle
that has closed below 129,000 providing a good confirmation that the bears are coming back in
control.
This week the price opened the week with a big bearish candle that closed down below
128,000 but then during the rest of the week it did not have a clear direction as it was stuck
between 129,000 and 128,000.
The price after the break of the Trend Line is back for a test of this TL and using Fibonacci we
can see that the price has perfectly rebounded on the 71% Fibonacci level and this could be an
important signal for the next week.

VIP CHANNEL ONLY

DAILY CHART WITH FIBONACCI AND A POSSIBLE PRICE ACTION FOR THE NEXT WEEK

DAILY CHART WITH PIVOT POINTS AND MOVING AVERAGES

 4H ANALYSIS : On the 4H chart we can see how the price this week has been stuck between
127.800 and 128.800 without finding a main direction.
On this graph we can also note that the price is compressed between two Trend Line and then
personally for the next week I will wait for the clear break of 129,000 or 127,500 before
considering any trades.
As seen in the highest timeframes, I prefer the upside scenario, so I will carefully observe a
break of 129,000 to evaluate a long trade with a target of 132,000.
This week has been very confusing because of Brexit and we will have to pay close attention to
any developments on this front to avoid surprises.

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4H CHART WHERE WE CAN SEE THE CONSOLIDATION AREA BETWEEN 128.800 AND 127.800

By activating some indicators on the 4H chart we can see how the 200-period Moving Averages
has been acting as dynamic resistance for several months and last Friday the price has come
back below it.

4H CHART WITH THE 200 PERIODS MOVING AVERAGE

 SETUPS FOR THE WEEK:

SETUP #1 : Personally this is the setup I prefer because it also corresponds to the analysis
done on the highest timeframe.
If the price should continue to VIP CHANNEL
rise and ONLY
close a daily candle above 129,300 this could be a valid
confirmation that the price is ready to go higher.
If this setup is activated, we can place the Stop Loss under the top of the rectangle (128.550)
and the first Take Profit around 130.300.

VIP CHANNEL ONLY

4H CHART WITH SETUP #1

SETUP #2 : If the price could not go higher and come back down then I personally will attend
the break and a daily close below 127,800 to evaluate a possible Short trade (video update in
case).
If this setup is activated, we can set the Stop Loss above 128,000 and the first Take Profit
around 127,000.

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4H CHART WITH SETUP #2