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Monitoring spatial variability and trends of

wheat grain yield over the main cereal regions in
Morocco: a remote-based tool for planning and
adjusting policies

Tarik Benabdelouahab, Youssef Lebrini, Abdelghani Boudhar, Rachid Hadria,

Abdelaziz Htitiou & Hayat Lionboui

To cite this article: Tarik Benabdelouahab, Youssef Lebrini, Abdelghani Boudhar, Rachid Hadria,
Abdelaziz Htitiou & Hayat Lionboui (2019): Monitoring spatial variability and trends of wheat grain
yield over the main cereal regions in Morocco: a remote-based tool for planning and adjusting
policies, Geocarto International, DOI: 10.1080/10106049.2019.1695960

To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2019.1695960

Published online: 02 Dec 2019.

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GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL
https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2019.1695960

Monitoring spatial variability and trends of wheat grain

yield over the main cereal regions in Morocco: a remote-
based tool for planning and adjusting policies
Tarik Benabdelouahaba , Youssef Lebrinia,b, Abdelghani Boudharb,c, Rachid
Hadriaa, Abdelaziz Htitioub
and Hayat Lionbouia
a
Department of Environment and Natural Resources, National Institute of Agronomic Research,
Rabat, Morocco; bWater Resources Management and Valorization and Remote Sensing Team, FST,
Sultan Moulay Slimane University, Beni Mellal, Morocco; cCenter for Remote Sensing Applications
(CRSA), Mohammed VI Polytechnic University, Ben Guerir, Morocco

ABSTRACT ARTICLE HISTORY

Changes in crop yields may have important implications for food Received 17 July 2019
security in Morocco. This study intends to develop an explicit Accepted 27 October 2019
model based solely on phenological parameters derived from
KEYWORDS
Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)/NDVI
Wheat yield; MODIS;
data to monitor wheat grain yield. The developed model phenological parameters;
allows overcoming missing weather, soil and irrigation supply NDVI time series;
data without losing the spatial resolution offered by images data. trend analysis
The study period covers a 16-year span between 2000 and 2016,
and the considered region is the north-western of Morocco. The
model showed a good correlation with ground measurements (R2
¼ 0.62; p < 0.01). Spatio-temporal variability and trend of wheat
yield were examined. The spatial analyses revealed an increase of
instability of wheat grain yields across central and southern
regions. Such a tool allows managers and policy makers to ana-
lyse the agricultural policy impact, to monitor the agronomic
potential dynamic, to control the cropping season evolution and
to optimize the land use choices.

1. Introduction
In arid and semi-arid regions, the effects of climate change and degradation of soil
and water resources can be dramatic on food security and yield productivity
(Moriondo et al. 2007). In developing countries, the spatial yield fluctuations or yield
gaps remain high and are controlled by problems of water scarcity, regression of agro-
nomic potential and water and soil salinity (Aggarwal et al. 2000; Balaghi et al. 2013;
Christiansen et al. 2015). These challenges can be addressed by mitigating the import-
ant yield fluctuation year to year and improving yield productivity. The wheat output
is considered as a key factor for food security (Benabdelouahab, Lionboui, et al. 2019).
Hence, it is essential to have a synoptic information on the production zones to moni-
tor the productivity of wheat yield and ensure the sustainability of agricultural

CONTACT Tarik Benabdelouahab tarik.benabdelouah@gmail.com

*Present address: National Institute of Agronomic Research, Rabat, Morocco.
ß 2019 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group
2 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

production (Pala et al. 2011; Kowalik et al. 2014; Anderson et al. 2016;
Benabdelouahab et al. 2016).
In the Moroccan context, wheat is one of the most widely grown crop and the most
important cereal crop imported from the international markets (Benabdelouahab,
Derauw, et al. 2019). Despite the national growing wheat output, the total consump-
tion in recent years has often prevail over production. The average yield between
1978/1979 and 2017/2018 cropping seasons, according to the Direction of Statistics
and Strategy (DSS) of the Ministry of Agriculture, is estimated up to 54 million tons/
year. Furthermore, wheat grain yield trend makes place for more erratic year-to year
fluctuations leading to affect the socioeconomic functioning linked to natural potential
degradation, already, weakened by edaphic, ecologic and climatic fragilities (Balaghi
et al. 2008; Lionboui et al. 2018). However, there is scarce information that assesses
the spatial and temporal variability of the wheat grain yield (Benabdelouahab,
Lionboui, et al. 2019). In this context, analysing the trends and temporal variation in
wheat grain yield at national scale is crucial to plan long-term development strategies
(Dixon et al. 1994; DeFries et al. 1999; Lionboui et al. 2014; Asseng 2015;
Benabdelouahab, Lionboui, et al. 2019). These spatial information cannot be depicted
since they represent only punctual area and are non-spatialized (Vrieling et al. 2011;
Iizumi et al. 2014; Shahriar et al. 2014; Mottaleb et al. 2015; Lessel and Ceccato 2016;
Zhao et al. 2017; J€onsson et al. 2018). However, earth observation data products have
been promoted as the most reliable tool for yield and production monitoring and
could provide valuable information on crop development, with high accuracy and
timeliness, due to their synoptic, objective, timely and repetitive coverage (Prasad
et al. 2000; Labus et al. 2002; Pinter et al. 2003).
Therefore, substantial researches have recognized the ability of phenological pro-
files and parameters, derived from vegetation index time series, to quantify the crop
growth, stress status of vegetation cover and the potential of productivity (Rasmussen
1992; Doraiswamy et al. 2004; Wall et al. 2008; Mkhabela et al. 2011; Jayawardhana
and Chathurange 2016; Lebrini et al. 2019). These parameters show the progression
of crop emergence, development, pic and senescence, which reflect climatic and
edaphic conditions and crop yield potential related to a specific production area
(Tucker 1979; Tucker et al. 1983; Moran et al. 1997; Labus et al. 2002; Hansen and
Schjoerring 2003; Vi~ na et al. 2004; Boschetti et al. 2009; Verbesselt et al. 2010;
Newton et al. 2018).
NDVI time series, which describe the phenological profiles, is the most remotely
sensed index used to monitor crop cover based on the sensitivity of this index to the
vegetation canopy variations (Tucker et al. 1983; Ji and Peters 2007). Moderate-
Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data is characterised by a high spec-
tral and temporal resolutions and its data availability since 2000. This product provide
an excellent opportunity to estimate wheat yield at the regional level (Doraiswamy
et al. 2004; Friedl et al. 2010; Mkhabela et al. 2011; Suepa et al. 2016; Akhtar et al.
2017). In this work, NDVI time series derived from MODIS images were used to esti-
mate and to monitor the spatiotemporal wheat yield trendin Morocco between 2000/
2001 to 2015/2016 cropping seasons.
An empirical relationship, which is a statistical regression-based method, was estab-
lished between historical wheat yields and phenological parameters derived from NDVI
time series (Wall et al. 2008). The developed model, based on phenological parameters,
has been tested and validated to evaluate its stability and accuracy. Yet, this category of
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 3

models does not require many inputs and could be extended to other production areas
for the same type of crop (Immitzer et al. 2016).
The approaches based on the combination of satellite imagery and climate data for
yield spatial analysis do not allow taking full advantage of the spatial resolution
offered by satellite products. Furthermore, this category of models cannot capture the
yield variations in irrigated zones adversely to the proposed model based on pheno-
logical parameters, which is sensitive to the vegetation behaviour independently to the
climate and production conditions (Bakker et al. 2005; Anagnostou et al. 2010).
Monitoring yield dynamic requires a good spatial resolution to capture the limited
and general variations related to a degradation of the production potential or an
improvement linked to the technical aspect or agricultural policy (Balaghi et al. 2008;
L€ow et al. 2013; Benabdelouahab, Lionboui, et al. 2019). Hence, the interest to develop
a model based solely on phenological parameters derived from satellite products with a
much finer resolution. This approach can get robust spatio-temporal wheat yield vari-
ability and trend analysis and allows overcoming missing weather, soil and irrigation
supply data without losing precision.
Such tool allows managers and policy makers to analyse the agricultural policy impact,
to monitor the agronomic potential dynamic, to control the cropping season evolution
and to optimize the land use choices at large scale. It can constitute also a guide where to
focus our efforts by optimizing the choices of crops and varieties, prioritizing efforts and
investment, adjusting plans and policies to close the yield gap.
The aim of the present study is twofold: i) to develop a model based on the pheno-
logical parameters, derived from NDVI time series data, over annual crop cultivated

Figure 1. Delimitation of the study area. The wheat grain yield data collected from 2000 to 2016 are indicated by
blue dots. Stars show the distribution of official weather stations. Black lines delineate the provinces.
4 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

areas; ii) to perform a spatio-temporal analysis over 16 years and trend analysis of cer-
eal yield.

2. Methodology
2.1. Study area
The study area is in north west of Morocco (Figure 1). The geographical position of
Morocco gives the country a great bioclimatic diversity (Knippertz et al. 2003). The
annual rainfall amount vary from less than 150 mm in the southern desert to more than
1000 mm in northern Morocco (Balaghi et al. 2008) . More than 50% of the precipitations
are concentrated over only 15% of the country area (Salhi et al. 2019). Mean annual air
temperatures vary between 12  C and 14  C in winter and 22  C and 24  C in summer,
over the period 1950–2000.
The selected area includes twenty provinces as shown in Figure 1 and represents 70%
of the national wheat grain yield. This area lies between 35 00 –30 150 latitude north and
9 450 –04 000 longitude west, with a catchment area of 123.000 km2. This area includes
five geographical units: the Atlas mountains, the foothill areas, the plains, the phosphate
plateaus, and the coastal areas. The altitude ranges from sea level in the coastal areas and
plains to more than 3500 m in mountainous zones. The main rivers, which flow the study
area, are Oum Erbiaa, Tensift, Bouregreg, and Sebou.
It is usually sown between mid-November and mid-January, depending when the first
significant precipitation occurs, and is harvested between May and June, depending on
temperature conditions. The technical route is not identical between farms, as it is an
individual decision. Although the usual between the farmers is an average seeding rate of
350–400 seeds m2 and a fertilizer application doses of 0.18 t.ha1 of triple superphos-
phate, 0.2 t.ha1 of ammonitrate and 0.1 t.ha1 of urea (Benabdelouahab et al. 2016).

2.2. Field data

Historical wheat data were provided by the DSS. The agricultural zone is divided into pri-
mary sampling units of 500 to 1,000 hectares. These units are then segmented into smaller
units, called ‘segments’ with a size of 30 ha. The sampled segments are selected based on
random and stratified sampling, ensuring the spatial representativeness of rainfed and irri-
gated agricultural areas. Grain yields are estimated at the level of wheat plots from the col-
lection of ears at physiological maturity at several 1 m2 plots within the selected segments.
These spikes of wheat are ginned and weighed in the laboratory to estimate yield at the
plot level. From these yield estimates at the plot level, we can deduce the average of the
returns representing the segment (Balaghi et al. 2008, 2016). The data set used in this study
contains 400 records of wheat grain yield estimated at segments level sampled at the main
wheat-growing regions of Morocco for the period between 2000 and 2016 (Figure 1).

2.3. Satellite images data

MOD13Q1 product is calculated from the Level-2G daily surface reflectance gridded data
(MOD09 and MYD09 8-day composites series) using the Constrained View angle-
Maximum Value Composite method (CV-MVC) (Didan 2015). In this study, MODIS-
Terra is a near-polar orbiting satellite operated by NASA and has many spectral bands,
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 5

Figure 2. Workflow of the applied methodology.

NDVI, EVI, Bleu, NIR, Red, MIR and quality bands (Didan 2015). For the overall studied
seasons, only NDVI layers were used to produce NDVI time series.
A set of 335 images of MOD13Q1 16-day composites product at 250 m resolution,
covering the study area, has been acquired between 2000 and 2016 (23 images per year).
The downloaded MODIS tiles, which cover the study area, are mosaicked and reprojected
using MODIS Reprojection Tool (MRT).
The NDVI time series profiles retrieved from the 335 MODIS images were used to
derive phenological parameters following the flowchart presented in Figure 2. The choice
of NDVI data was based on the sensitivity of this index to the vegetation canopy varia-
tions and the normalization methods used to compute NDVI allow the minimization of
shadow effects, noise related to the atmospheric conditions and the solar angle change
(Tucker et al. 1983; Ji and Peters 2007; Matsushita et al. 2007; Lebrini et al. 2019).

2.4. Crop mask

In order to calculate the crop NDVI value, digital land cover map described by
Vancutsem et al. (2012) was used as a mask for extracting NDVI sub-images, covering
solely annual crop area. Image masking allowed isolating the subset of a region’s pixels
mainly dominated by cereals.

2.5. Data time series analysis

In order to analyse the NDVI time series using existing 16 days series and extract pheno-
logical parameters (Figure 2), TIMESAT software, developed by Eklundh and J€ onsson
(2015), was used to process and smooth time series data of NDVI images and drive sea-
sonal phenological metrics (Figure 3). Pixel wise NDVI time series were produced from
2000, September to 2016, August in order to extract phonological parameters. TIMESAT
implements different algorithms based on least squares fits for smoothing time series.
All processing methods use a preliminary definition of the seasonality (unimodal or bi-
modal) along with approximate timings of the growing seasons. In this study, the
Gaussian Asymmetric (GA) filter was chosen for its increased ability to process the satel-
lite data series (J€onsson and Eklundh 2002, 2004). Based on the NDVI profiles,
6 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

Figure 3. Example of phenological profile and parameters extracted from NDVI cropping seasons.

Table 1. Phenological parameters in TIMESAT.

Phenological parameters Abbreviation Description
Start of season SOS Time for which the left edge has
increased to 10% of the seasonal
amplitude measured from the
left minimum level
End of season EOS Time for which the right edge has
decreased to 10% of the seasonal
amplitude measured from the
right minimum level
Base value BVAL The average of the left and right
minimum values
Maximum value PEAK Maximum VGI value for the fitted
function during the season
Amplitude AMPL Difference between the peak value
and the base level
Large integral LINTG The area under the smoothed curve
between SOS and EOS

phenological parameters were computed using the GA function for the sixteen seasons
from 2000 to 2016 (Figure 2, Table 1).

2.6. Yield wheat estimation model

The phenological parameters were presented as raster format with 250 m2 cell size and
the pixel values for each corresponding ground measurements were extracted. These met-
rics were used as input data to develop an empirical model for wheat yield estimation
using stepwise regression approach. This method tests different combinations between all
variables (Figure 2). The linear regression model was generated for each combination, and
the one with highest Pearson correlation R2 values and lowest RMSE values was recog-
nized as the best model to estimate wheat yield (Kerdsueb and Teartisup 2014; An et al.
2016). The general model equation is shown in Equation (1) where y represents the
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 7

dependent variable (wheat yield), Ci represents the coefficients of regression, Bi represents

the phenological parameter and a0 represents the intercept. The general model equation
is expressed as follows:
Xn
Y ¼ a0 þ C
Bi
1 i
(1)

The mean phenological parameters adopted in this study are: GINT (Great Integral),
MAX (Maximum NDVI Value), BASE and AMP (Amplitude)
Model performance was assessed using the coefficient of determination (R2) for evaluating
the linear relationship between the measured and estimated wheat grain yield (Equation 2)
and the root mean square error (RMSE) to assess the average magnitude of the errors between
the measured and simulated wheat grain yield (Equation 3) (Richter et al. 2012). The coeffi-
cient of determination ranges from 0 to 1. Higher R-squared values showed the strength of the
relationship between the model and the dependent variable.
0 Pn 12
i¼1 ðxi   x Þ  ðyi  y Þ
R ¼ @qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
2
Pn A (2)
2 Pn 2
i¼1 ðx i  x Þ  i¼1 i ðy  y Þ
sffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi
Pn 2
i¼1 ðyi xi Þ
RMSE ¼ (3)
n
where:
xi and yi refer to measured and estimated values respectively;
x and ȳ refer to mean of measured and estimated values of the studied variable
respectively;
i is an identifier varying from 1 to n; n is the number of measured values;
The accuracy and stability of the obtained regression model was assessed using the
k-fold cross validation (k-fold CV) (Cassel 2007). This approach is a resampling procedure
used to evaluate model performance when used to predict a given variable. K-fold CV gives
an estimate of model proficiency, which is generally less biased or less optimistic than other
methods. Conversely, validation that is based on sample division (train/test) significantly
reduces the number of samples and the results may depend on a particular random choice.
The k-fold CV divides the training into k smaller sets. This approach constructs models
with (k  1)/k of data and tests with the remaining 1/k with k ¼ 3 and a repetition num-
ber of 10 (N ¼ 10) (Cassel 2007). Output values of N k-fold CV were compared to the
observed values in order to evaluate the overall performance of the model through the
determination of the root mean square error and the correlation coefficient.

2.7. Spatial and trend analysis

The validated model served to map and analyse the spatio-temporal variability of wheat
grain yield for each studied cropping season. Furthermore, these findings allowed per-
forming a statistical analysis for determining the average and standard deviation at the
pixel basis.
Yield trends have been looked for and captured at the scale of the studied area based
on the non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test (Kendall 1938; Mann 1945). It is a statis-
tical test for evaluating trends in time series. The Mann-Kendall trend test evaluates
whether X (observed values) tend to increase or decrease over time. Such method have
been widely used in the literature to assess monotonic trend in environmental time series
data (Li et al. 2014; Merino et al. 2015; Jiang et al. 2017). The test statistic S is computed
8 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

as the sum of the integers:

X
n1 X
n
S¼ sgnðXj  Xi Þ , where j > i (4)
i¼1 j¼iþ1

where:
8
< þ1 if ðXj Xi Þ>0
sgnðXj  Xi Þ ¼ 0 if ðXj Xi Þ ¼ 0 (5)
:
1 if ðXj Xi Þ<0
A positive value of S indicates an upward trend; a negative value of S means a downward trend
and no trend when S is null or small.
It is a particular case of the Kendall Tau coefficient (Kendall 1970), that quantifies the
dependency between two variables, where the series is the dependent variable and time is
the independent one. Mann-Kendall constitute a particular case of Kendall’s test for cor-
relation where the arranged variable is time and which the main objective is to evaluate
the existence of trend and state whether the studied parameter increases or decreases over
time (Hipel and McLeod 1994). All combinations values over time are evaluated at each
pixel. Hence, the changes in wheat grain yield trends were determined using the Z at 5%
significance level. The Mann-Kendall test outputs were classified into insignificant changes
(1.96 < Z < 1.96 and 0.0001 < S < 0.0001) or significant changes (Z  1.96 and S 
0.0001 or Z  1.96 and S  0.0001). Besides, the patterns of trends in NDVI values
and climatic variables were classified following the approach of Jiang et al. (2017).

3. Results
3.1. Wheat grain yield estimation model
Based on the stepwise multiple linear regression method function, the phenological met-
rics were considered as the input variables to develop a wheat grain yield model. This
metrics were used as dependent variables and the observed grain yield as independent
variable. The developed model is expressed by Equation (6):
GY ¼ 2:95E04
GINT þ 5:89E04
MAX  8:46E04
BASE þ 9:85E04

AMP  6, 637 (6)
where, GY is the wheat grain yield, GINT is the great integral, MAX is the maximum;
AMP is the amplitude and the base value.
Figure 4 compares observed wheat grain yield and simulated ones over 418 locations in the
studied area between 2000 and 2016. This comparison shows a good linear relationship
between the two variables, with statistical indicators R2 and RMSE were 0.62 (p < 0.01), 4.01
qs/ha, respectively.
To evaluate the stability and the accuracy of the obtained model using variables that
were not used to build it, we compared the wheat grain yield values predicted using the
k-fold CV method and those observed in situ (Figure 5). The statistical indicators
obtained from this evaluation were R2 ¼ 0.62 (p < 0.01) and RMSE ¼ 4.03 qs/ha. This
finding confirms the ability of the model to estimate the grain yield adequately from
phenological parameters derived from remote sensing data. The phenological parameters
express the behaviour of several production parameters related to the genetic potential of
the crops, to the edaphic and climatic conditions and to the human intervention. Thus,
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 9

Figure 4. Relationship between observed and simulated wheat grain yield for the period 2000–2016.

the obtained model can be used as an operational tool for monitoring the wheat grain
yield at the large scale.

3.2. Spatial analysis of wheat grain yield

Based on the developed model (GY) presented in previous section, the wheat grain
yield was computed over the whole study area for the growing season from
2000–2001 to 2015–2016. The spatial grain yield distribution showed a high spatial
heterogeneity from year to year and between different regions (Figure 6). In add-
ition, other areas are aware of the human intervention for the stabilization of yield
levels by the contribution of irrigations (irrigated perimeter and pumping zone) or
towards the reduction of the levels of yields induced by the degradation of natural
water resources (tarring or salinization of groundwater) and soil (salinity
and erosion).
The highest potential of production was observed on irrigated area, coastal and
northern regions adversely to internal, mountainous and southern zones as indicated
in Figure 6. However, the visual analysis does not make it possible to extricate conclu-
sions about the evolution and the stability of the production potential of the studied cer-
eal zones.
Figure 7 shows the spatiotemporal variation of phenological profiles corresponding to
seven weather stations locations, over the studied region, compared to the monthly rain-
fall and the wheat grain yield. A visual analysis of the phenological profile shapes show
different patterns associated to climate conditions (large shapes in wet seasons and the
smallest ones in dry seasons), with a direct impact on wheat grain yield. The high intra-
annual and inter-annual variability may be justified, in part, by the amount of rainfall and
its temporal distribution during the cropping season (Figure 7). Several stations (Settat,
Marrakech and Khouribgua) recorded a drop in yield during the 2006–2007 and
10 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

Figure 5. Comparison between observed and predicted wheat grain yield using the k-fold CV of all acquired images.

2015–2016 agricultural seasons, with a sharp reduction in the size of the corresponding
phenological profiles. This is similarly the case for the Essaouira site, which has low yields
and small phenological profiles.
The El-jadida site is an irrigated area (pumping area), which justifies the stability of
the phenological profiles independently of the rainfall amounts. Hence, the proposed
model based on the phenological parameters has a high ability to simulate the yield in
irrigated or rainfed contexts with the same efficiency. These results presented in the
Figure 7 show the sensitivity and ability of the phenological profiles to meet wheat grain
yield level.
For predicted grain yield images, the average, and the standard deviation of the wheat
grain yield were computed over the studied period (2000–2016). Figure 8 combines two
statistical indicators, which are the yield grain average and the standard deviation.
The grain yield patterns were spatially heterogeneous from 2000 to 2016 with a different
potential between regions. Figure 8 show a high potential of production in irrigated area,
costal and northern regions adversely to internal, mountainous and southern zones
characterized by arid and semi-arid climates.
The high values of the average yield production represents 22% of the total annual
crop area. One third of this area is characterized by a large fluctuation in cereal pro-
duction from one season to another with a standard deviation higher than 5 qs/ha.
Most of annual crop area (58%) showed a medium level of grain yield production and
half of this area is characterized by high fluctuation (standard deviation > 5 qs/ha)
(Table 2). In this context, a sharp fall in national wheat grain yield can be linked to
rainfall distributions and drought period. Thus, stabilizing production rates becomes
out of control by managers and decision makers.
The low level of grain production concerns more than 19% of the studied culti-
vated area. The low variation of this class indicates (12%) the weak potential of wheat
grain production linked to the unsuitable soil and climate conditions of these zones
(Table 2). Spatial analysis of wheat yields is an effective and operational tool for
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 11

Figure 6. Spatial distribution of wheat grain yield from 2000–2001 to 2015–2016 cropping seasons over the
study area.

assessing the edaphic, climatic and human suitability of wheat and assessing the risk
of this choice.

3.3. The characteristics of the dynamics trend of wheat grain yield from 2000
to 2016
Based on a non-parametric Mann-Kendall trend test, this study examined the changes of
the wheat grain yield in the 16 studied growing season. The variation in grain yield trends
can be effectively characterized by combining the results of the Mann–Kendall test and
the Theil–Sen median trend analysis. The results of the Mann–Kendall test are categorized
as insignificant changes (1.96 > Z > 1.96) or significant changes (Z  1.96 or Z 
1.96) based on a confidence level of 0.05.
12 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

Figure 7. Monthly rainfall over the study area for the period 2000–2016.
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 13

Figure 8. Spatial wheat grain yield average and standard deviation classes for the period 2000–2016 over the
study area.

Table 2. Class grain yield based on average and standard deviation.

Grain yield average Standard deviation Area
Class (qs/ha) (qs/ha) (ha) Percentage
High yield & low std 20 <5 685600 14.93
High yield & high std 20 5 352100 7.67
Medium yield & low std 10─20 <5 1532100 33.35
Medium yield & high std 10─20 5 1130000 24.60
Low yield & low std 10 <5 557900 12.15
Low yield & high std 10 5 335800 7.31

The results were classified into three classes (Table 3). Figure 9 demonstrates that the
yield trend patterns for the period between 2000 and 2016 were spatially heterogeneous
and that the overall trend of yield in irrigated area was gradually increasing; however, the
decreasing trend in certain areas cannot be ignored.
Most of vegetated areas showed a stable trend in vegetation, and these areas accounted
for 81% of the pixels; the number of pixels identified as degraded was low (2.25%).
Moreover, vegetation degradation in costal, northern area and around irrigated perimeters
was noteworthy (Table 3).
Figure 5 indicates a significant ascendant trend over irrigated area and on the northern
part of the study area. A significant descendent trend of wheat grain yield was detected
in the northern part of study area and in other scattered areas that will be linked to water
resources degradation (depletion of aquifers and salinization of groundwater) and soil
degradation (salinity and erosion).
14 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

Table 3. Class variation degrees of grain yield change trend.

Syield Zyield Wheat grain yield trend Area percentage
0.001 1.96 Significant improvement 16.85
0.001–0.001 1.97 Stable 80.90
<0.001 <1.96 Significant degradation 2.25

Figure 9. Spatial wheat grain yield trend classes between 2000 and 2016 over the study area.

Over the last 16 years, the trends varied for different agricultural systems. For the
irrigated perimeters, 16.85% of pixels showed significant improvement. However, the area
of significantly degraded area was 2.25%.
These results show that change trends occurred in the studied region is not linked
only to climatic conditions variability. The irrigated areas know more improvement
mainly related to the technological improvement and irrigation water supply. Negative
trends detected may be related to climatic conditions and irreversible changes in soil and
water access. Climate change can be expressed as an increase in the extreme phenomena
of precipitation and temperature, which mainly affects the arid and semi-arid zones.
Areas with physical constraints (slope) or vulnerability (salinity) are more exposed
to degradation processes than other areas.

4. Discussion
In Morocco, the productivity of wheat remains low and reaches on average just 25 per-
cent to 60 percent of yields possible in rainfed and irrigated perimeters, respectively (Pala
et al. 2011). This gap indicates that there is still substantial efforts and engagements of
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 15

managers, farmers and stakeholders to increase the average yield of crops in rainfed sys-
tems in developing regions. In this context, there is a particular urgency to narrow the
prevailing large yield gaps and mitigate challenges resulting from growing population, soil
degradation, climate change and seasonal variability of rainfall. This leads to the conclu-
sion that research on yield monitoring will deliver a greater contribution to food security
(Anderson et al. 2016).
The proposed wheat grain yield model explained 62% of its spatial wheat grain yield
variation with a root-mean-square errors of 0.4 t ha1. This result showed that the errors
were acceptable, confirming the ability of the model to estimate wheat grain yield accur-
ately. The model developed by Iizumi et al. (2014) explained 45–81% of the spatial vari-
ation of yields, with root-mean-square errors of 0.5–1.8 t ha1. The proposed model
based on phenological parameters derived from NDVI time series allows overcoming
missing weather, soil and yield data without losing precision and taking full advantage of
the spatial resolution offered by satellite products (Bakker et al. 2005; Anagnostou
et al. 2010).
Several empirical models are based on the rainfall amount during the production
period in addition to other parameters related to vegetative development to estimate grain
yield of wheat (Balaghi et al. 2008). These models may omit the temporal distribution of
rainfall, which may be a limiting factor in production, especially during the start of the
season and critical phenological stages. Therefore, even if rainfall amounts are high but
do not coincide with critical phenological stages, models based on rainfall data can over-
estimate yields. While they may underestimate yields if the rainfall amounts are less
important but coincide with the critical phenological stages of the wheat crop. As shown
in Figure 7, the phenological profiles vary with the quantities and rainfall distribution as
well as production factors. This represents a faculty that allows models based on pheno-
logical parameters to evaluate wheat yield by referring solely to the behaviour of the crop.
As a result, the factors that limit vegetative development, whether related to climatic con-
ditions or fertilization or the sanitary conditions of crops, can be detected by phenological
profiles behaviour.
The use of MODIS data at 250 m leads to a class mixture at the pixel level, which
affects the mean NDVI value. This mixture affects slightly the model accuracy especially
within the small farms less than 5 ha which represent more than 80% of total farms cate-
gories in Morocco. That is why the use of high and medium resolution and ensuring reli-
able information on cropland distribution and status through the adoption of an optimal
classification approach can improve substantially the accuracy of the proposed model
based on phenological parameters.
This methodological approach for the estimation of wheat yields based on pheno-
logical parameters, extracted from the time series of MODIS images, makes it possible
to obtain a single and a simple model. This last describes the wheat behaviour at the
pixel level, which is reflecting production conditions including physical or human fac-
tors. The model developed can be applied in different agro-climatic contexts to substi-
tute the use of empirical models that require climate data. This proposed model can
be of great use in Mediterranean and African context as it offers a multitude of spatial
resolution as needed and circumvents the lack of climate data.Our findings showed
that the studied Moroccan regions are facing low and unstable wheat grain produc-
tion, especially in rainfed area with more 51% of the cultivated area. In fact, during
wet years (high annual rainfall amount and irrigated area), they do not use at right
time or enough inputs (irrigation water, fertilizers, and pesticides), so their yields
remain relatively low. When it is too dry, they usually obtain very low productivity
16 T. BENABDELOUAHAB ET AL.

and sometimes even have total crop failure. This situation lead to a sharp fall in
national wheat grain yield in dry years.
According to (Pala et al. 2011) wheat yields can be increased 1.6–2.5 times far from
stagnation notion in different wheat-growing regions of Morocco. For these reasons, there
is a clear need to establish a system analysing the trends and temporal variation in wheat
grain yield at the national scale in terms of productivity potential and income. Such a
framework should allow the integration of widely available phenological parameters,
derived from NDVI time series data. This will quantify the gains and warning managers,
stakeholders and farmers to adopt new technologies to minimize production risks.
The irrigated areas (16.8% of total area) showed a positive trend on grain yield produc-
tion mainly related to the technological improvement and irrigation water supply. The
negative trend yield production concerns 2.25% of the cultivated area, indicating the deg-
radation process in these zones. This trend may be explained by the irreversible changes
in soil (salinity and erosion) and water access leading to a decrease in production poten-
tial. Despite the small area affected by this degradation there is a crucial need to adopt a
sustainable yield improvement to support the adoption of zero tillage, residue retention
and crop rotation that are appropriate to specific agro-ecological conditions in addition to
genotypes. Furthermore, substantial improvement has to be done on effective pest and
disease control, efficient nutrient management to be non-limiting, on the one hand; and
on the other hand, introducing new crop rotation such as oilseed (canola and mustard)
and cereals (quinoa and sorghum) that can play an important role in many rainfed-crop-
ping systems (Cassman et al. 2003). However, These options are relevant rather than an
increase in area under cultivation at the expense of the forest and the pasture zone, which
would contribute to climate change (Sadras et al. 2015).
The method adopted in this research provides accurate and relevant spatial yield infor-
mation and allows assessing yield potential. Yet, improving cereal productivity per unit
area on existing farmland can play an important role in enhancing food security and
bridging the gap between national supply and demand.
Furthermore, this work can constitute a guide where managers and decision makers
focus their efforts by optimizing the choices of crops and varieties, prioritizing efforts and
investment, adjust plans and policies to reach food security and close the yield gap.

5. Conclusion
The spatial variation yield monitoring is controlled by problems of water scarcity, regres-
sion of agronomic potential and climatic factors, which affect the socioeconomic function-
ing linked to an over-exploitation of natural resources.
This study aimed to develop a spatially explicit model to retrieve grain wheat yield
based on the phenological parameters, derived from NDVI time series data, to explore the
spatiotemporal analysis changes in year-to-year variation, mean and trend of change in
yields for the period 2000–2016. Spatial analysis and trend changes of the cereal produc-
tion area using time series satellite-derived vegetation indices allow evaluating the food
security and plan long term strategies to improve yield production.
The proposed wheat grain yield Model based on phenological parameters explained
62% of its spatial variation of yields, with root-mean-square errors of 0.4 t ha1. Spatial
distribution of grain yield production, for the period from 2000 to 2016, showed a high
disparity over the study area. Our analyses revealed the instability of yields across interior
regions and south. More than 50% of the total area is characterized by a high fluctuation
(standard deviation > 5 qs/ha) and low wheat grain yield.
 GEOCARTO INTERNATIONAL 17

Such behaviours are likely related to the degrading process of production potential and
water shortage. Negative trend detected, on the south and internal zones, may be related
to climatic conditions and irreversible changes in soil and water access. Thus, stabilizing
production rates becomes out of control by managers and decision makers. Adversely, the
irrigated areas (16.8%) show a positive trend on grain yield production mainly related to
the technological improvement and irrigation water supply. The obtained results showed
their usefulness for a cheap and synoptic crop monitoring.
Although our understanding of the impacts of climate change and processes of poten-
tial degradation on crop yields remains limited, our study offers an opportunity to close
parts of this knowledge gap. This spatial analysis approach allows managers and stake-
holders analysing the agricultural policy impact, monitoring the agronomic potential
regression and optimizing the land use choices.

Acknowledgements
The grain yield data was provided by the Direction of Statistics and Strategy (DSS). The authors are
indebted to the staff of the DSS and INRA for their collaboration, as well as to Mr. Redouane Aarach,
Mrs. Adra Idrissi and Dr. Riad Balaghi, for their valuable help. This work did not receive funds.

Disclosure statement
No potential conflict of interest was reported by the authors.

ORCID
Tarik Benabdelouahab http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8386-934X

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