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Lecture 7 - Elements of The Sampling Problem
Lecture 7 - Elements of The Sampling Problem
Problem!
Professor Ron Fricker!
Naval Postgraduate School!
Monterey, California!
Reading:!
Scheaffer et al. chapters 2 & 3!
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Goals for this Lecture!
• Some terminology!
• Introduction to types of sampling!
– Convenience vs. random sampling!
– Types of random sampling !
• Simple random sampling (SRS)!
• Stratified sampling!
• Cluster sampling!
• Systematic sampling!
• Examples of when and how things can go wrong!
• Estimation when selection probabilities are unequal:
the Horvitz-Thompson estimator!
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Terminology Review (1) !
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Good Sampling is Critical for
Good Statistical Inference !
• If we are to use a sample to infer something about a
population, we need to:!
– Have some assurance that the sample is representative of
the population (i.e., minimize the chance of bias)!
– Be able to quantify how far off our sample statistic could be
from the population statistic (sampling error)!
• Using a probability sample is protection against
(unknowingly) selecting a biased sample!
– A high response rate is protection against nonresponse bias!
• Classical statistics is all about quantifying uncertainty
(i.e., sampling error) and using that information to
determine statistical significance!
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The Inference Problem!
We specify,
know, and
control this
process!
So we can do
the correct math
here!
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Error of Estimation!
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Types of Random Sampling (2) !
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Types of Random Sampling (4)!
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Why Sample?!
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An Example of What Can Go Wrong:
Using Poor Sampling Frame(s) !
• Literary Digest presidential election poll:
FDR vs Alfred Landon!
– Sampling frame taken from telephone numbers
and club membership lists!
• Only one house in 4 had a phone!
• Rich tend to join clubs more than poor!
• Sampling frame coverage bias!
– Sent questionnaires to 10 million people!
• Only 2.4 million people responded!
• Large potential for nonresponse bias!
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Results of the Poll!
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Another Example of What Can Go Wrong:
Non-Probability Sampling!
• Even a survey chosen on purpose to be
representative can suffer from bias!
– 1948 Gallup Poll !
– Quota sampling: Survey crews given quotas for
the types of people to interview!
• Based on observable characteristics!
• Interview 6 men and 6 women, etc.!
– Specified so that the resulting sample will match
the population characteristics!
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What’s Wrong with Quota Sampling?!
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Source: Elementary Survey Sampling, 7th edition, by Scheaffer, Mendenhall, Ott, and Gerow.
Results!
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Source: Elementary Survey Sampling, 7th edition, by Scheaffer, Mendenhall, Ott, and Gerow.
Who Would You Interview?!
Republican Democrat
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Probability Sampling
Used After 1948 Elections!
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Source: Elementary Survey Sampling, 7th edition, by Scheaffer, Mendenhall, Ott, and Gerow.
Scheaffer et al. Sections 2.4 & 2.5!!
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Classical Statistical Assumptions
vs. Survey Practice / Requirements!
• Classic statistical methods assume:!
– Population is of infinite size (or so large as to be
essentially infinite)!
– Sample size is a small fraction of the population!
– Sample is drawn from the population via SRS!
• In surveys:!
– Population always finite (though may be huge)!
– Sample could be sizeable fraction of the
population!
• “Sizeable” is roughly > 5%!
– Sampling may be complex!
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Key Idea!
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Illustration: Sampling with Replacement!
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Horvitz-Thompson Estimators!
N N i=1 π i i N i=1 i i
• Estimator is particularly useful in complex
sampling!
– Probability can vary by each respondent
depending on the sampling scheme!
– Probability can also incorporate the probability of
nonresponse!
– wi has a nice interpretation we will discuss later!
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Showing the H-T Estimator is Unbiased!
E (τˆe ) = (6 + 8 + 10 + 10 + 12 + 14) / 6 = 10
E (τˆu ) = 0.0222 × 12.2748 ++ 0.5333× 9.2652 = 10
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What We Have Covered!
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