Lecture by Irudaya Rajan

Impact of return migration in India

Outline:- >India’s migration pattern – globally

> Impact on remittances

> Return migration

> Govt policies.

According to UN, highest no. of emigrants. 18 million Indians abroad (those with Indian
passports.

 According to Indian govt – 14 million in 210 countries.

 Highest no. of Indians in UAE – 3.5 million, followed by 3.1 million in USA.
 Latest remittances – 83 billion USD.
 India is no. 1 globally in migration and remittances and no.2 in student migration.
 Sometimes students later become diaspora.
 “Covid-19 is to a migration crisis”. “Closing border, closing covid-19 – no relation”.
Mobility is stopped.
 Migrants most affected due to covid-19.
 All numbers by the UN and the govt are estimates (underestimates).
 Rajan calls it “guesstimates”
 According to Rajan – “20 million or more Indians outside, those who hold Indian
passports"
 10 million in six countries – UAE, Saudi, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait
 10 million distributed across the other countries.

Why 10 million in the Gulf?

 In a survey with 15,000 households in Kerala, 2.5 million in Gulf from Kerala alone.
 T.N. 1.2-15 million in Gulf.
 Etihad and Emirates operates 2 flights every day to TVM and other airports in Kerala.
 In the pandemic, most affected migrants were in Gulf countries.
 Gulf countries don’t grant citizenship even after living there for many years.
 Burial of migrants were not done in the Gulf before, but it was made to happen during the
pandemic.

Looking at return migration

 Return migration could be at the end of a life cycle, a part of life. You come back to your
home country after many years.
 Even prior to covid-19, 1.5 million people returned in Kerala.
 India had return migration thrice – Gulf War (1991), Global Financial Crisis (2008) – this
affected Gulf countries. Nitaqat law (2018) caused large scale return migration – Kerala,
India faced the maximum. Arab Spring in 2011 did not cause return migration as expected.
 Since the history of migration from 1970s, this (2020) is the largest return migration.
 Govt. of India numbers – 4.5 million people came back from 98 countries under Vande
Bharat Mission – a sort of massive evacuation.
 First time we have proper data on return migration. In Kerala, 12 lakh people came back to
Kerala out of which 20% were on visiting visas.
 “4.5 million who came back are not migrants, some are children, spouses and
undocumented migrants”
 In the DBX-CLT flight that crashed, 45% people in the flight were not migrants.
 Rajan’s estimate – 3 million (out of 20 million) have come back. 1 out of 6 people
emigrants came back, which is close to 15%.
 Most Vande Bharat flights from Gulf and 2 million are back. 1 out of 5 Indians from the
Gulf are back.

Impacts of covid-10 on migrants

1. Stigma on migrants – treated as carrier of covid-19, locals put posters outside people’s house
demarcating them as returned from abroad.

2. During a normal return – they are seen as heros, in Vande Bharat Mission, they were
considered as zeros.

3. First time in the history of migration, they have come with empty hands.

Three categories of people returned

I – normal return, 1/3rd of return migration would have come back anyway.

> II – 1/3rd of the people who returned expect to re-migrate.

> III – distress return – caused by covid-19. These people made enough money to go, but came
back without any money. Became poorer by migrating.

 Stranded migrants were given INR 5,000/- those who were stranded in India and couldn't
go back.

Policy advise for the Govt

 20 lakh crore as economic revival package only addressed internal migration, but nothing
about international migrants.
 Emigration Bill is being re-drafted now.
 Post-covid large scale migration.
 Need to re-train the people so that they can migrate.
 Migration will continue and govt must support them.

Future of migration

 Indians may migrate but route may change. 90% now in Gulf, now people will migrate to
other countries also.
 Remittances have not come down. 20 years ago, 34% of Kerala had remittances.
 Kerala is an aging state – 1 out of 6 people is an old person.
 Keralites addicted to migration

Now, demographically backward states also send their people out, like Bihar and UP.