The Game Changer: Coping With China's Foreign Policy Revolution

Author(s): Elizabeth C. Economy

Source: Foreign Affairs, Vol. 89, No. 6, The World Ahead (November/December 2010), pp.
142-152
Published by: Council on Foreign Relations
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/20788725
Accessed: 28-07-2016 17:28 UTC

Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at
http://about.jstor.org/terms

JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted
digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about
JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.

Council on Foreign Relations is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to
Foreign Affairs

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
Coping With Chinas Foreign Policy Revolution

Elizabeth C. Economy

After decades of following Deng Xiaoping s China s impact on the rest of the world
dictum "Hide brightness, cherish obscurity," has, in many respects, been unintentional?
China s leaders have realized that main the result of revolutions within the country.
taining economic growth and political As the Chinese people have changed how
stability on the home front will come they live and how they manage their econ
not from keeping their heads low but ratheromy, they have had a profound impact on
from actively managing events outside the rest of the world. China's position
Chinas borders. As a result, Beijing has as the world's largest contributor to global
launched a "go out" strategy designed climate change is not by design; it is the
to remake global norms and institutions. result of extraordinary economic growth
China is transforming the world as it and 1.3 billion people relying on fossil fuels
transforms itself. Never mind notions of a for their energy needs.
responsible stakeholder; China has become Yet all this is about to change. China's
a revolutionary power. leaders once tried to insulate themselves
Chinas leaders have spent most of the from greater engagement with the outside
country's recent history proclaiming a lack world; they now realize that fulfilling their
of interest in shaping global affairs. Their domestic needs demands a more activist
rhetoric has been distinctly supportive of global strategy. Rhetorically promoting a
the status quo: China helping the world 4 peaceful international environment" in
by helping itself; China's peaceful rise; and which to grow their economy while free
China's win-win policy are but a few ex riding on the tough diplomatic work of
amples. Beijing has been a reluctant host others is no longer enough. Ensuring
for the six-party talks on North Korea, it their supply lines for natural resources
has tried to avoid negotiations over Iran's requires not only a well-organized trade
potential as a nuclear power, and it has and development agenda but also an
generally not concerned itself with others' expansive military strategy. The Chinese
military and political conflicts. no longer want to be passive recipients

Elizabeth e. Economy isC. V. Starr Senior Fellow and Director for Asia
Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.

[142]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
of information from the outside world; to understand the shape of this revolution
they want to shape that information for and anticipate its impact.
consumption at home and abroad. And
THE REVOLUTION WITHIN
as their economic might expands, they
want not only to assume a greater stake In the late 1970s, the Chinese leader Deng
in international organizations but also began the process of "reform and openness,"
to remake the rules of the game. precipitating a series of reforms that,
China s leaders recognize that they are over three decades, produced revolution
at a crossroads and are struggling to artic ary change. Chinas economic institutions,
ulate their new course. In an interview with patterns of social mobility and interaction,

the China News Service, the usually and societal values and even the Commu
politically deft former ambassador Wu nist Party were transformed. By almost any
Jianmin tried to reconcile the old rhetoric measure, Deng s revolution also produced
with the new reality: "By the time the cur one of the great economic success stories
rent financial crisis is completely over ... of the twentieth century. China is now the
there is no doubt that China will play a second-largest economy and exporting
more significant role in the world," he nation in the world. Through a booming
declared. "What we have achieved is just export sector, a continuous flood of foreign
a beginning. Deng Xiaoping's idea of capital, and a managed currency, its central
'keeping a low profile and trying to do bank and state investment institutions
something will continue to be applicable now hold the largest reserves of foreign
for at least another 100 years." What Wu's currency in the world. In the process,
somewhat ambiguous message in fact sig hundreds of millions of Chinese have been
nals is that China is out to change the game. lifted out of poverty in just a few decades.
For the rest of the world, Chinas new Yet for Chinas current leaders, Dengs
agenda will require far greater attention revolution has run its course. They must
to the country's internal dynamics and a now confront the downside of 30 years of
much more activist, coordinated foreign unfettered growth: skyrocketing rates
policy effort. The world needs to ensure of pollution and environmental degra
that China respects the interests of others dation, rampant corruption, soaring
as it seeks to meet its needs. And if the unemployment (reports range from 9.4 per
United States wants to retain its preemi cent to 20 percent), a social welfare net
nence, or at least maintain its role in in tatters, and rising income inequalities.
shaping the norms and values that will Together, these social ills contribute
guide the world in the twenty-first century, to over 100,000 protests annually. In
its China policy cannot merely be a reaction response, Chinas leadership is poised
to Beijing's initiatives. It must be part of to launch an equally dramatic set of re
a broader, long-term global strategy that forms that will once again transform the
begins with a clear assertion of the United country and its place in the world. If all
States' domestic priorities. As a first step, goes according to plan, in 20 years or
while Beijing searches for how to sell its less, China will be unrecognizable: an
revolution to the rest of the world, the urban-based, innovative, green, wired,
rest of the world needs to move quickly and equitable society.

FOREIGN AFFAIRS November/December 2010 U43]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Elizabeth C. Economy
At the heart of this next revolution is Even as China moves ahead with its
Beijing's plan to urbanize 400 million bold plans to transform its economy and
people by 2030. In 1990, just 25 percent society, new pressures and challenges will
of all Chinese lived in cities; today, that emerge. The resource demands of rapid
number is almost 45 percent. By 2030, it urbanization are substantial. Half of the
will be 70 percent. Urbanizing China will world s new building construction occurs
allow for a more effective distribution of in China, and according to one estimate,
social services and help reduce income the country will construct 20,000-50,000
disparities. An urban China will also be new skyscrapers over the coming decades.
knowledge-based. No longer content to Shanghai, already the country's most
have their country be the world s manufac populous urban center, will soon be sur
turing powerhouse, China s leaders have rounded by ten satellite cities?each with
embarked on an aggressive effort to trans half a million people or more. Connecting
form the country into a leading center of all these and other new cities throughout
innovation. Beijing is supporting research the country will require 53,000 miles of
and development; recruiting Chinese-born, highway. Once the cities are built and
foreign-trained scientists to return to China connected, the demand for resources will
to head labs and direct research centers; and continue to grow: urban Chinese consume
carefully studying the models of innovation more resources than those in rural areas
that have proved successful in the West. (roughly 3.5 times as much energy and
China s new cities will also be green. 2.5 times as much water), placing sig
Beijing is investing hundreds of billions nificant stress on the country's already
of dollars in the clean-energy sector and is scarce resources. By 2050, China's city
providing subsidies to domestic manufac dwellers will likely account for around
turers to encourage the sale of clean-energy 20 percent of global energy consumption.
products. Already, China is among the Urban Chinese also make more organ
world s leading manufacturers of wind ized political demands?for a cleaner
turbines and photovoltaic panels, and it environment, broader cultural expression,
is poised to capture significant segments and more transparent governance?than
of the global market in clean-energy their rural counterparts. Civil society
transport, including high-speed rail and blossoms in China's cities: homeowners'
electric vehicles. Finally, Chinas urban associations, artists, and environmental
and public health advocates all assert
population will be wired. China is already
in the midst of an information revolu their rights and demand change with
tion. Over 30 percent of Chinese people increasing frequency. Expanding China's
use the Internet, and most of them are middle class by 400 million people will
in cities. In a 2009 Gallup poll, 42 per bring only more demands and put more
cent of urban Chinese reported having political pressure on China's leaders.
access to the Internet in their homes, Expanding popular access to the Internet
representing a 14 percent jump since just will further up the ante for China's leaders
2008. In absolute terms, more people by significantly increasing the odds that
are wired in China than anywhere else political discontent will solidify into a broad
in the world. based challenge to Communist Party rule.

[144] FOREIGN AFFAIRS ? Volume8?No.6

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
Premier Wen Jiabao has admitted to for example, has pursued justice for families
"surfing the Net" daily to help him under whose children died in the Sichuan earth
stand people s concerns, but President Hu quake, even documenting his encounters
Jintao has expressed some concern about with recalcitrant officials on YouTube.
what the Internet might mean for China: The racecar driver and novelist turned
"Whether we can cope with the Internet blogger Han Han, routinely calls for
is a matter that affects the development of greater media and cultural freedom. Since
socialist culture, the security of informa its launch in 2006, his blog has received
tion, and the stability of the state." Hu'smore than 410 million hits. Perhaps most
comment signals that Chinas leaders are significant, Twitter, which is banned in
aware of the political challenge the Inter China, has emerged as the most vibrant
net could pose to their rule in the future. underground forum for uncensored political
Already, the Internet is evolving into a debate?including a pathbreaking online
virtual political system in China: the Chi conversation between Chinese netizens
nese people inform themselves, organize, and the Dalai Lama in May 2010.
and protest online. In July 2010, bloggers The core priorities of Chinas leaders
provided firsthand accounts of a large today remain very much the same as those
scale pollution disaster in Jilin Province, of Deng three decades ago: economic
contradicting official reports. Thousands growth and political stability. Yet the do
of people ignored government officials, mestic environment in which they operate
angrily accusing them of a cover-up, and and their understanding of the road to
rushed to buy bottled water. Chinese are success are radically different. It is no
also "voting" online. In one instance, a longer enough to focus on the home front;
journalist sought by the police on trumped China s leaders want to shape the interna
up charges of slander took his case to the tional context in which they do business.
Internet. Of the 33,000 people polled,
CHINA'S REVOLUTION GOES GLOBAL
86 percent said they believed he was
innocent. The Economic Observer, a In the 1990s, then Chinese President
Chinese financial weekly, then launched a Jiang Zemin launched his country's first
broadside against the police, condemning "go out" policy, encouraging the country's
their attempt to threaten a "media profes state-owned enterprises to go abroad in
sional." The charges against the journalist search of natural resources. As a result
were dropped. of Jiang's initiative, China's trade with
Activists have also used the Internet the resource-rich countries of Southeast
to launch successful campaigns?some Asia, Latin America, and Africa exploded
involving physical protests?to prevent between 2001 and 2007, growing by
the construction of dams and polluting 600 percent. Tens of thousands of Chinese
factories and to oppose the removal of companies now operate throughout the
Cantonese on television programs airing developing world, often rejuvenating
in Guangdong. Most striking, perhaps, previously moribund economies with
has been the emergence of iconic cultural their investments. Leaders from the
figures who use the Internet for political Democratic Republic of the Congo to
purposes. The renowned artist Ai Weiwei, Venezuela and Cambodia have welcomed

FOREIGN AFFAIRS ? November/December 2010 [145]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Elizabeth C. Economy
Chinese investment and infrastructure mining project that will bring in more than
as the type of practical assistance their 2,000 Chinese workers has raised the ire
countries most need. In many instances, of Vietnamese workers, religious leaders,
Chinese state-owned enterprises are and even military and government officials.
willing?and able, with the support of the A prominent Vietnamese lawyer has gone
government?to take on projects that no so far as to sue the prime minister, accusing
other multinationals find financially pru him of breaking four different laws by
dent. The copper mines in Zambia had expediting approval of the project.
remained closed for more than a decade China s urbanization push will only
until the Chinese came to town. This intensify the country's outward drive for
economic outreach has been matched by more natural resources. More cities, more
an unparalleled diplomatic effort. China roads, and more infrastructure will mean
offers a vast menu of trade and aid deals, more steel, more copper, and more bauxite.
infrastructural support, and educational China accounts for approximately one
and technical training opportunities to fourth of world demand for zinc, iron
countries rich in natural resources. and steel, lead, copper, and aluminum.
Chinese investors are generally wel In mid-2010, according to the Interna
comed for their implicit promise to bring tional Energy Agency, China surpassed
some of the success of "the China model" the United States as the world's largest
to the host countries. The willingness of energy consumer. China has also become
the Chinese government and its state concerned about its access to sufficient
owned enterprises to do business anywhere, water supplies. In China, the amount
anytime, and at any price has become of water available per person is one-fourth
legendary. As Sahr Johnny, Sierra Leones the global average. China is water rich
ambassador to Beijing, commented in an in absolute terms, but given the number
interview regarding Chinese construction of people, the levels of pollution, and the
projects in his country, "If a G-8 country location of China's water resources, water is
had wanted to rebuild the stadium, for scarce throughout much of the country?
example, we'd still be holding meetings. and China s leaders fear serious future
The Chinese just come and do it. They shortages due to rapidly growing household
don't start to hold meetings about environ and industrial demand. Consequently,
mental impact assessment, human rights, they are moving quietly but aggressively
bad governance and good governance." to dam and divert the water resources of
Yet not everyone is as sanguine about the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, a move that
the way China does business. Chinese will affect millions of people outside the
companies have encountered resistance country's borders. China's river-diversion
in a number of countries, including Papua initiatives are generating significant concern
New Guinea, Peru, and Zambia. Poor in Bangladesh, India, and Kazakhstan,
environmental and safety practices, along among other countries, and paving the way
with labor policies that overtly favor for future regional disputes: the economic
Chinese workers, have caused intense livelihood of millions of people outside
conflicts with local residents in all these China s borders depends on access to
countries. In Vietnam, a Chinese bauxite these water resources.

[146] FOREIGN AFFAIRS - Volume 8? No. 6

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
The next wave of "going out/' however, Chinas leaders issued a number of pro
will take China far beyond investment in vocative statements regarding the future of
natural resources. As China becomes an the international financial system. Chinas
innovative, knowledge-based economy, well-respected central-bank governor,
its leaders are encouraging their cash-rich Zhou Xiaochuan, announced that it might
state-owned enterprises and investment be time to move away from the dollar as
funds to take stakes in or acquire foreign the worlds global currency and develop a
companies, particularly those with desirable "super sovereign" currency based on a
technologies. Where Chinese products are basket of currencies. Chinese President
competitive, Chinese firms are jumping in Hu similarly called for an overhaul of the
feet first. Chinas Ministry of Commerce global financial system at the g-20 summit
is an aggressive advocate for the country's in April 2009. The public reaction was
companies, for example, promoting an swift: most international commentators
"all-in-one" service for clean-technology stated that the time was not right for a
exports: the provision of equipment, ex move away from the dollar. Chinese
pertise, and services. The government will officials quickly backtracked, assuring
even provide the necessary loans, which critics that their proposals were merely
can then be used to pay for Chinese-made recommendations that could be imple
equipment, workers, and technologies. mented over the next decade rather than
Beijing has already promised 1,000 such in the next year.
clean-energy projects to countries in Africa. Yet China has quietly continued to
Ensuring a fair deal for the countries push the issue within the International
in which Chinese firms invest will require Monetary Fund, and as its voting share
that those countries engage Chinese within the imf continues to increase (it
companies head-on. For example, the increased from 2.9 percent to 3.6 percent
Chinese Ministry of Railways, which is in 2006, and there is a pending increase to
bidding with General Electric to build 3.8 percent in 2010), China will have more
Californias high-speed rail network, has opportunities to press its case. Over time,
promised to provide the financing, tech China may also seek to upend other aspects
nology, equipment, and "many high-end of imf governance, such as the annual
engineers and high-end technicians," review of countries' currency practices and
potentially raising questions about what the governance and transparency require
role ge and American workers will play ments for imf loan recipients. Both prac
in the project. California and other U.S. tices are headaches for China: the imf
states will need to ensure that Chinese has both obliquely and direcdy criticized
investment satisfies multiple U.S. interests, Beijing for keeping the yuan artificially low,
including labor. and Chinas disregard for imf-based trans
Chinas leaders are also making their parency and good governance standards in
voices heard in international financial and its trade and aid deals in the developing
trade institutions, in an effort to ensure world has earned it further criticism from

that their economic interests are protected. the international community.

In March 2009, as the world struggled Although the expansion of Chinas eco
to cope with the global financial crisis, nomic reach may be the most noticeable

FOREIGN ?FF AIRS - November/December 2010 [147]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Elizabeth C. Economy
manifestation of its new activist foreign Appropriating the intellectual property of
policy, its efforts to limit foreign competi other firms takes less time and is less costly
tion in key strategic sectors, such as clean than licensing it or creating one s own. As
energy technology, will also have a major long as Chinese companies are unlikely
impact. Chinas initiative to support to be sanctioned for taking the intellectual
"indigenous innovation" has drawn sig property of other firms, they are unlikely
nificant criticism from the rest of the world. to change the way they do business.
Consciously rejecting the Japanese and South China has also taken steps to protect
Korean model of technology innovation, its hold on strategic resources and, in some
which was rooted in a long-term catch-up cases, to compel foreign companies to
strategy of licensing foreign technologies, locate their manufacturing bases in China
China is looking to develop its own tech or be put out of business. In the process,
nologies and product standards. And it is Beijing is undermining global trade norms.
trying to use international institutions to In November 2009, the United States
promote its domestic standards as global and the European Union launched a case
standards. For example, it is currently in the World Trade Organization against
engaged in trying to push its own standards China for using export restraints on over
for software encryption and wireless local 20 raw materials, such as bauxite and coke,
area networks as global International that are essential for basic manufactured

Organization for Standardization standards. goods, including steel, semiconductors,

(The iso has previously rejected Chinese and aircraft. Less than a year later, Beijing
proposals to adopt the new protocol globally announced another round of restrictive
largely due to its use of an undisclosed trade policies, this time for rare-earth
algorithm, which has raised concerns metals, cutting its export quotas by 72 per
about unfair trade practices.) As Jeremie cent. These metals, over which China
Waterman, a senior director at the U.S. holds a near monopoly, are necessary to
Chamber of Commerce, noted in his testi produce not only magnets, cell phones,
mony before the U.S. International Trade and fiber-optic cables but also electric
Commission in June 2010, Beijing has vehicle batteries and wind turbines. If
"recently begun to implement a medium it is not rescinded, China s action could
and long-term indigenous innovation force many clean-energy firms to manu
plan via a growing web of discriminatory facture significant components in China,
industrial policies, including in the areas given that the United States and many
of government procurement, information other countries would need several years
security, standards setting, tax, antitrust, to rebuild their rare-earth mining capacity.
intellectual property protection and en The world has become accustomed
forcement and industrial espionage." In to many of the global impacts of China s
effect, rather than working to address economic revolution. China is already a
the long-standing problems in its trade trade and investment powerhouse, a sig
and investment sectors, China is using the nificant purchaser of U.S. debt, and a major
weaknesses of its regulatory and enforce player in global commodities markets.
ment regime to provide an even greater As Beijing now seeks to more actively
competitive advantage to its companies. shape international trade and investment

[148] FOREIGN AFFAIRS - Volume 89 No. 6

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
norms to suit its next revolution, the rest Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam?
of the world can draw on past experience is a "core national interest," a term previ
to negotiate with, and occasionally even ously reserved only for Taiwan and Tibet.
redirect, China. The same cannot be said, Shortly thereafter, in April, the navy
however, of Chinas efforts to expand its followed up with an almost three-week
military reach. exercise in the region.
The international community reacted
NAVAL GAZING
swiftly. At the June 2010 Shangri-la
In April 2010, Chinese Rear Admiral Dialogue, in South Korea, which brought
Zhang Huachen, deputy commander together defense ministers from through
of the East Sea Fleet, baldly declared that out the Asia-Pacific region, U.S. Secretary
the country's naval strategy had changed: of Defense Robert Gates asserted that
"We are going from coastal defense to far the United States' interest in the South
sea defense_With the expansion of the China Sea was ensuring "stability, freedom
country's economic interests, the navy of navigation, and free and unhindered
wants to better protect the country's economic development." U.S. Secretary
transportation routes and the safety of of State Hillary Clinton followed suit at
our major sea-lanes." In reality, Zhang's the July asean Regional Forum, in Hanoi,
pronouncement was merely the coming by offering U.S. assistance in mediating
out party for a strategy that had been on the disputes surrounding the South China
the books as early as 2007. The strategy Seas islands and resources. Her offer
envisions China's naval capacity as expand was immediately supported by several,
ing in three stages: first, to a navy that although not all, of the claimants. And
can cover the "first island chain," which in August, Vietnam and the United States
includes islands from Japan to Taiwan held their first joint naval exercises ever
to the Philippines; then, to a regional in the South China Sea.
naval force with capabilities extending More challenges will follow. In July
to Guam, Indonesia, and Australia; and 2010, one of Chinas foremost security
finally, to a global force by 2050. The scholars, Shen Dingli, laid out the rationale
state-owned Global Times reinforced for establishing a more permanent Chinese
the initial steps in describing the navy's military presence abroad through the
strategic shift: "Naturally, the transfor establishment of military bases. Although
mation of the Chinese navy will bring retired Chinese naval officials and current
changes to the strategic pattern in East senior political officials have offered
Asia and the west Pacific Ocean that differing perspectives on the idea, there
has lasted for the last five decades." appears to be political momentum behind
The South China Sea has become the such a move. The Chinese government has
first battleground. In March, even before already pushed forward with the develop
Rear Admiral Zhang's pronouncement, ment of deep-water ports in Pakistan,
Chinese officials appeared to assert for Myanmar (also called Burma), and Sri
the first time that the South China Sea? Lanka and is openly discussing the potential
whose resources have long been claimed of other sites in Bangladesh and Nigeria.
by a number of other countries, including It may take a decade or more for the

FOREIGN AFFAI RS ? November/December 2010 [149]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Elizabeth C. Economy
capacity of Chinas navy to match its am Protocols, and arrests of Internet dissidents
bitions, but the contours of Chinas more are all designed to prevent the Chinese
activist security strategy are already evident. people from straying too far outside
acceptable political boundaries. More
GETTING THE STORY RIGHT
over, foreign media companies have
As the impact of Chinas transformational been largely unsuccessful in capturing
policies reverberate throughout the world, significant market share in China, and
Beijing has recognized the need to match some?such as Google and the media
its economic and military expansionism magnate Rupert Murdoch?have scaled
with an equally aggressive media strategy. back their efforts or pulled out in the
As the Internet is allowing foreign per face of highly restrictive policies.
spectives into China, Chinese officials have How successful Chinese media will
become convinced of the need for China ultimately be in winning the hearts and
to tell its own story to the rest of the world. minds of the rest of the world will likely
As one senior propaganda official com rest on their ability to change the way
mented, "We must... initiate targeted they do business. Other authoritarian
international public opinion battles, and states seek to emulate the Chinese model,
create an international public opinion restricting Internet access and controlling
environment that is objective, beneficial, domestic media. However, gaining the
and friendly to us." respect and trust of the rest of the world
The result is a Chinese media blitz, will require China to adopt a very different
with a price tag upward of $80 billion. strategy. An open and critical approach
The Xinhua News Agency is launching to reporting news about China will be
a 24-hour global English-language tele essential. Ultimately, the impact of the
vision news service, headquartered in NewChinese media foray abroad may be less
York City's Times Square, to compete transformative globally than on the home
with cnn and the bbc in order to "provide front. As Chinese media companies
international and China news with a remake themselves to compete in the
Chinese perspective to global audiences." international marketplace with more
Already, China's state media post 400 cor investigative and open reporting, the
respondents in 117 bureaus around the pressures will mount to adopt similar
world, and they are planning for 180 bureaus strategies in the domestic market.
by 2020. Chinese media companies?such
AMERICA FIRST
as Xinhua, the China Daily, the Global
Times, and the People's Daily?now rou China has been remarkably consistent
tinely ask foreign experts for commentary over the past three decades in defining
on global affairs. its core interests as economic growth and
At the same time, Chinese officials political stability. What has changed is
remain committed to controlling the flow the leadership s understanding of what is
of information into and within the country. required to achieve these goals. Chinas
Censorship, Internet police who monitor drive to remake global norms is also fueled
and guide online discussions, new reg by a resurgent nationalism that hearkens
ulations for the registration of Internet back to the days when China was a world

[150] FOREIGN AFFAIRS - Volume 8? No. 6

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 The Game Changer
basic human rights. The degree to which
trading power. For some Chinese officials,
the past century?in which China has been these values conflict with those espoused
largely absent as an economic and militaryby China helps explain why the road to
force?was merely a historical aberration. trust and cooperation between the two
In their eyes, things are now returning countries remains so challenging. Within
to normal. China, there are political thinkers, activists,
In the United States, Chinas more and even officiais who share the ideals
activist foreign policy necessitates a strate espoused by the United States. Until
gic r??valuation. Buzzwords such as such views become more prevalent, how
"containment," "engagement," and "con ever, it is essential that the United States
gagement" and the notion of a "g-2" will be willing to advance them through both
not be useful concepts in the years to come. its diplomatic and its policy initiatives.
Instead, the White House needs to consider U.S. policy toward China cannot consist
its policy on three different planes. merely of blocking and parrying Chinese
First, rather than relying primarily on initiatives and promoting American ideals.
bilateral engagement (an effort attempted Nor can Washington rely on annual dia
and later discarded in the face of Chinese logues designed to hash over a laundry
lack of interest), the Obama administration list of issues that, in the end, simply
should continue to work with others to delineate where the United States and
help influence Beijing. The United States, China disagree and contribute little to
the European Union, and Japan often attaining U.S. interests.
coordinate their trade policies toward The third plane of U.S. policy should
China; U.S. cooperation with Russia concern the United States' domestic
brought China along on a round of un interests and objectives. The Obama
sanctions against North Korea; and the administration should begin by taking a
United States and a number of South page from China's playbook. Like China,
east Asian nations have found common the United States should derive its foreign
cause in pressing Beijing to come to the policy first from a clear articulation of its
negotiating table over the South China objectives and strategy for its own future:
Sea. As China expands its naval activities What does the United States want to look
in the coming decades, such multilateral like 50 years from now, and how is it going
cooperation?and pressure?will be to get there? From such a vantage point,
essential in convincing China to discuss policy toward China becomes an instru
military transparency and the rules of ment of achieving U.S. goals rather than
the road in maritime security. an end in itself.
The White House must also continue If the United States wants to be the
to make clear that it believes certain core
global leader in clean-energy technology
values should underpin the international by 2050, for example, it should now be
system. These values above all reflect an developing the intellectual, financial, and
American commitment to freedom? political infrastructure to get there. And
freedom of the seas, the air, space, and the when Chinese clean-energy investment
Internet; free trade; the rule of law; and interests come knocking, as they are doing,
the political freedoms associated with the United States will be well positioned

FOREIGN AFFAIRS - November/December 2010 [ 151 ]

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms
 Elizabeth C. Economy
to determine what types of investment retire. These relatively insular engineers
should be welcomed. When done right, will be replaced by a leadership class
such deals have the potential to result dominated by more confident, well
in equitable partnerships and successful traveled, and politically entrepreneurial
cooperation. In August 2010, for example, social scientists. Bold political change
the United Steelworkers union struck a may not be on their agenda, but a few
deal with the Chinese companies A-Power of them initiated political experiments
Energy Generation Systems and Shenyang or reforms as provincial leaders. It is a
Power Group to develop a $1.5 billion group of leaders that, when given the
wind-farm venture in Texas that will reins, will certainly bring more change
create 1,000 jobs for U.S. workers?up and perhaps even a few surprises.
from 330 U.S. jobs when the project was Although China s leaders have laid out
first proposed?and use about 50,000 tons their vision and put change in motion,
of U.S.-made steel. both domestic and international pressures
Similarly, Chinas efforts to move the may well produce an outcome far different
international financial system away from from the one they anticipate. All revolu
the dollar as the world s reserve currency, tions are inherently unstable, and China s
although potentially cosdy if done abrupdy, is no exception. The United States needs
might nonetheless be advantageous for to be ready, and that requires more than
Washington over the long run. If the simply reacting to Beijing s more active
United States were no longer able to bor foreign policy; it demands a U.S. policy
row money at a better rate than other toward China that looks inside China s
countries or run greater trade deficits with domestic revolution to anticipate the
the benefit of a much-delayed economic future challenges and opportunities for
impact, for example, it would impose a the international community that will
arise as a result of it.
potentially helpful fiscal discipline on
the U.S. economy. As China seeks to remake global norms
Paying close attention to transforma and institutions, it is also essential that the
tions within China will pay significant United States continue to assert its own
dividends for U.S. policymakers seeking to ideals and strategic priorities and continue
predict what China might do next. Grow to work closely with other like-minded
ing water scarcity in China, for example, nations. Ultimately, however, the United
will likely shape and perhaps even limit States will succeed only when it can clearly
agricultural and industrial opportunities articulate its own economic and political
there over the coming decades. Listening priorities and then ascertain how China
to early signals of policy shifts, such as the can best help meet those objectives. The
recent scholarly but public commentary on United States' China policy should be a
the future of Chinese military bases abroad, means to an end, not an end in itself?
is also important. Finally, Chinas own
leadership will be replaced in 2012. Five
of the seven top leaders in the Standing
Committee of the Politburo, including
President Hu and Premier Wen, will

[152] FOREIGN AF FA 1RS Volume 89 No. 6

This content downloaded from 64.76.96.25 on Thu, 28 Jul 2016 17:28:51 UTC
All use subject to http://about.jstor.org/terms