Problem Statement

Airline Route Planning Using Data Science

Objectives
The underlying scheduling objectives include: customer satisfaction; productivity of
human

resources; high aircraft utilisation; high load factors; high frequency; maximisation of

connections and consistent timing.

1 Satisfy the Customer

As was mentioned earlier, the schedules plan should satisfy the requirements of the
various

market segments which the airline targets (this is a schedules planning function).
Therefore,

the schedules planners require information on their airline customers’ behaviours. They
can

obtain this data from a number of sources, including; historic data from the yield

management department; information from sales and reservations agents, and from the

airline’s marketing research department. The schedules planner must make use of such

information in order to accommodate the passengers’ preferences, needs and wants.

Thus, the

schedules plan is an attempt to satisfy passengers with regards to time of day, the day of

week, the frequency with which ights operate, and so on.

2 Productivity of Human Resources

The schedules planners must ensure that sta numbers are set at an optimal level for
each

shift. Their aim is to reduce the occurrence of peaks and troughs (highs and lows) in
sta ng

requirements, so that the airline delivers a consistent service. If a schedules plan is well

prepared, it will result in lower sta ng costs. The extra sta who are on duty during given

shifts in the weekends or in public holidays will usually receive additional allowances,
even

if there is little or no work for them to do. Yet, the operational and technical areas may
always

require minimum sta ng levels for every shift. For instance, if a shift calls for ten loaders

between 3 and 4 a.m., but only needs four loaders after this time, it is usual for ten
loaders to

work the whole shift. Obviously, this may not satisfy the scheduling objective which is to

achieve maximum productivity from the available human resources. Therefore, the
schedules

planner must work towards improving e ciency so that the members of sta are not
under-

utilised. This applies to many areas within the airline, including the rostering of cabin crew,

cockpit crew, maintenance, engineering and so on (Ernst, Jiang, Krishnamoorthy & Sier,

2004).

Airline Schedules Planning and Route Development 3

3 High Aircraft Utilisation

With regards to aircraft utilisation, one of the most important things to remember is that
the

aircraft can only make a pro t while they are ying. Aircraft on the ground make no money

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 for the company. One way of looking at this is to assume that the indirect costs of aircraft

ownership (depreciation, interest, et cetera) are relatively xed. Consequently, as aircraft

utilisation increases, the total hourly, indirect costs decrease. This leads to a decrease in

overall costs, and as a result, the overall nancial situation of the airline improves.

The nature of an airline’s route network has a major in uence on aircraft utilisation. This is

the reason why aircraft utilisation varies from airline to airline. If an airline’s route network
is

dominated by long-haul routes, it will have high aircraft utilisation rates. Conversely, the

shorter ights would translate to increased turnaround times. This means that the overall

availability of the aircraft is reduced. Usually, the long-haul carriers will y for more hours

than the short-haul carriers. Their average daily utilisation is of 12-13 hours per aircraft or

4,250 hours per annum, as compared to the 7.5 hours per day or 7,250 hours per annum
for

short-haul carriers. However, there are short-haul carriers, particularly low-cost airlines
that

are achieving 8-9 hours per day or 3,300 hours per annum. The schedules planners’ job is
to

prepare schedules which will maximise the aircraft utilisation for their route network.

4 High Load Factors

The schedules plan optimises the level of tra c available and the level of capacity
o ered.

Excessive frequency can cost an airline a lot of money. If the schedule is misjudged and
the

airline operates too many ights on a speci c route, some of the ights could take-o
with

empty seats. Consequently, the airline will lose money. The planning of the load factor is

crucial issue, as it must not be set too high or too low. To increase load factors many
airlines

may consider reducing their frequency of ights. However, such a measure may be
counter-

productive; as high load factors will result in a situation where passengers could not nd a

seat on the ights they want. Hence, passengers could be intrigued to utilise the other
airlines’

services.

Airline Schedules Planning and Route Development 4

5 High Frequency
Industry experience suggest that many airlines have increased their market share (or
became

market leaders) after they have increased their frequency of ights to particular
destinations

(rather than increasing the level of capacity on given routes). This argument contradicts
what

was discussed in the previous point, with regard to high frequency and load factors.
However,

it is the schedules planner’s job to reconcile one requirement with another. It must be
noted

that certain destinations may require lower frequencies and larger load factors. For
instance,

certain routes that are used by business passengers may require frequent ights and
smaller

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 aircraft. The schedules planners are expected to maintain a balance between high load
factors

and high frequency. However, they are constrained by their eet numbers and aircraft

capacities.

6 Maximisation of Connections
The airlines’ schedules could also be planned in such a way which could optimise
passenger

connections at both ends of a given route. Many carriers have developed connecting
hubs

with the underlying objective of adding new points for tra c to feed and de-feed long-
haul

ights (McShan & Windle, 1989). For example, Iceland's fast-expanding WOW Air
connects

European points with North American destinations. The layovers in Reykjavik could boost

the economics of long-haul ights from short haul ights. Airlines can shu e passengers

through intermediary hubs, where they can feed and de-feed short-haul and long-haul
routes.

There are other developments which can boost tra c ows, like for example; marketing

arrangements between carriers, the use of code share ight arrangements, et cetera.

7 Consistent Timings
The schedules should be as consistent as possible in terms of maintaining the same
ights

departure times for particular services, from season to season. This is also known as
‘clock-

face timing’. The airlines’ back catalogue of schedules consistency will help them build

Airline Schedules Planning and Route Development 5familiarity and loyalty among their
consumer base (Wu, 2005). At times, the airlines may nd it di cult to maintain such
consistency due to certain scheduling constraints.

Algorithm

Establishment of model

Due to the short distance between way-points relative to the earth, the earth rotation and
spherical curvature are ignored. The model of the directional route map and the minimum
turning radius arc are established to elaborate framework by considering the least error
correction point among the route points, the shortest path length and the minimum
turning radius constraints between way-points.

Establishment of dynamic directional route map

In the three-dimensional ight space, except for the end point and the start point, there
are many correction points, and the correction points are converted into a directional
correction point route map by establishing a directed graph, as follows:

1. (1) Calculated the main direction from the starting point to the ending point;

2. (2) After an error correction point, the division plane was established by using the
principal direction of the point as a normal vector;

3. (3) Searched all error correction points on the side of the main direction on the
segmentation plane (without the ending point);

4. (4) Assumed that the current horizontal and vertical errors were both zero, all
reachable correction points were found according to the constraints;

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 5. (5) Add a path from the current point to the reachable point (the direction is the
current point points to the reachable point);

6. (6) Perform the above operations for all points (excluding the ending point).

The establishment diagram of the directional map of the correction point of the spatial
error is as follows.

It can be seen from Fig. 2(a) that the original data is randomly scattered in the space to
form a spatial undirected scatter point. Figure 2(b) establishes a plane with the normal
vector in the main direction from the starting point to the end point, Fig. 2(c) sets the
possible path at the starting point, and Fig. 2(d) sets the path at the correction point.

Proposed Methodology
What is Network Planning, and why do airlines do it?

The heart of an airline is its network, a collection of routes that the airline operates. An
airline's primary product is its schedule, not the seats, meals, or onboard amenities.

Passengers generally want to travel to and from speci c points as e ciently and
a ordably as possible. Airlines try to match this passenger demand by o ering a
schedule that is both operationally feasible and pro table. Airlines forecast and measure
the pro tability of speci c routes as well as the entire network as a whole.

Network Planning is an extensive, strategic process. For example, when evaluating new
routes, the Network Planner must determine the following as part of their business case:

• What are the target markets for the new route?

• How many days per week should the route be served?

• At what time of day should a route be served?

• What type of aircraft should be used to serve the route?

• Who will be my main competitors?

• What costs and revenues do I expect when operating the route?

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Airlines have a lot to consider when network planning. Photo: Thomas Boon/Simple
Flying

Airlines evaluate potential schedule changes such as new routes in the form of business
cases, where a pro tability gure is assigned to the schedule change. Analyzing the e ect
of a schedule, including its impact on the competition, is a complicated task.

As Network Planners get more advanced, they try to gure out how their key competitors
will react to their schedule change and anticipate possible competitive reactions. They will
also analyze the opportunity cost of deploying the aircraft to the new route under
evaluation versus other opportunities in the airlines' network. This means an already
complex task is becoming even more complicated!

How software helps airlines to do Network Planning

Network Planning is a core business function and a critical success factor for every
airline. If not done correctly, airlines can and will bleed a lot of money. It is not surprising
that airlines in 2020 do not have to rely on throwing darts at maps when deciding about
new routes. Most of the medium to large-sized airlines today use a Network Planning Tool
to evaluate their business cases.

These range from simple homegrown tools with an underlying model that dates back to
the 1960s (google Quality of Service Index if you are interested to learn more) to
extremely powerful tools that utilize state of the art research and technologies (google
Nested Logit models if you really want to deep dive into the topic). Lufthansa Systems'
NetLine/Plan is one example of such a powerful tool.

"For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong" H.L.
Mencken.

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Software is a huge help when it comes to network planning. Photo: Thomas Boon/Simple
Flying

Network Planning in 2020 is more complex than in the 1960s. There are still airlines
relying on simplistic tools with an underlying methodology that dates back to a time when
commercial aviation was heavily regulated and low-cost carriers or hubbing was virtually
non-existent. One might wonder why these simplistic tools are still used. The answer is
Expertise & Money. 

Sophisticated Network Planning tools require investment, and in an industry, with razor-
thin margins, this can be a challenge, especially when another simple tool costs a fraction
and does the same thing. Or does it?

The answer is no. Sophisticated Network Planning Tools outperform the simple ones in
speed, transparency, and, most importantly, forecasting accuracy. A state of the art
Network Planning tool will equip the planner with the latest science to back up his or her
business cases in the hypercompetitive and dynamic airline industry we see today. 

A fool with a tool is still a fool…

Network Planning is both a science and an art. Planning tools such as NetLine/Plan
should be operated by skilled people that understand the inner works of such a tool and
also have an in-depth understanding of their airline, markets, and competitors.

Experienced Network Planners will have a good feel for the market behavior, but a
Network Planning tool provides a valuable check against "gut-feel" Network Planning.
The challenge for many airlines is nding, developing, and maintaining these highly skilled
people. Even if an airline has the most powerful tool, it will deliver limited value if it does
not have the right people using it. 

Network Planners do it with Models

Advanced and straightforward Network Planning tools try to achieve the same thing: a
forecast into the future. Planning tools incorporate historic supply (i.e., airline schedules)
and demand data (i.e., booking data). Advanced tools use machine-learning algorithms to
calibrate their underlying models based on historical data. This occurs in two essential
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components of a Network Planning tool - the Connection Builder and the Market Share
Model.

The airline remains committed to hiring back as many workers as possible. Photo: IndiGo

The Connection Builder Model will forecast what, and how many, itineraries are available
for a passenger to choose from on a given market in the future. The Connection Builder
Model is calibrated on millions of historic passenger itineraries analyzing the parameters
of reasonable and feasible connections that existed.

The Market Share Model will forecast the attractiveness of the di erent itineraries on a
given market in the future. The Market Share Model is calibrated on millions of historic
passenger itineraries analyzing relevant parameters such as airline preference, departure
time, connect time, and detour factor.

Properly calibrated models are the foundation for any advanced Network Planning tool.
They empower the Network Planner to analyze and scrutinize business cases, including
testing various related scenarios.

Let's assume a Network Planner is evaluating a business case for a new direct ight from
Frankfurt (FRA) to Calgary (YYC) in Summer 2020.

With a tool like NetLine/Plan, he/she can determine and analyze: 

• How many booking options are o ered on the route being evaluated?

• How many direct and transfer connections are there?

• How large is the market and the average market turnover?

• What are the passengers' preferred arrival and departure times?

• Do the preferred ight times t into the hub system?

• Are there any codeshare partnership scenarios that should be considered?

• Who are my main competitors on the route?

• How many passengers and how much market share will I capture?

• What costs and revenues will this new ight generate?

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Map with potential behind and beyond connections for a newly added ight from FRA-
YYC. Photo: Simple Flying

Successful Network Planning

The network is the airline's backbone, and changes to it can make or break the airline.
Given these stakes, airlines should use a Network Planning tool to simulate and evaluate
changes before actually implementing them. Airlines that use advanced tools and have
skilled Network Planners have an advantage over their competitors.

They make better network decisions and avoid costly mistakes. While it is certainly
possible to make the right decision by coincidence, sophisticated Network Planning
should be based on the combination of Art and Science, using tools like Lufthansa
Systems' NetLine/Plan.

Advantages

An e ective ight plan will keep fuel usage as low as possible, ensure a reliable and e ective
ight, limit risks and at the same time minimise the overall expenditure. By decreasing the risks
and maximising savings, ight planning today is at its unusual level of sophistication, and the size
of the company does not matter; there are lots of potential money-saving opportunities. The
introduction of ight planning companies not only saves money and time but most importantly,
rescue lives.

Bene ts include:

•    Preserves airline's money.

•    Helps to keep fuel usage low.

•    Shortens the ight time.

•    Helps to precisely pinpoint the expense of additional fuel needed.

•    Flight Preparation and More Fuel



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