ARIMA

( )
P
1−∑ φi Li ¿
i=1

where L denotes the lag operator, φ i is the AR coefficient, θi represents MA coefficient, ε t is the white noise , p is
the order of AR, d is the number of non seasonal differences and q is the MA order.

The objective of the model is to estimate the future time series movement by examining the differences between the
values in the series instead of actual values. The data are differenced to make it stationary.

The ARIMA has the exceptional ability to capture the periodical cycle better than other methods [1’] making it most
general class for time series prediction.

ARMAX

The ARMAX model consider the exogenous input for forecasting which proved to be a great tool for time series
forecasting [2’]. ARMAX is extension of ARIMA and is more practically viable as it include the external
parameters such as temperature, humidity and wind speed. ARMAX(p,q,b) refers to the model with autoregressive
terms p, moving average terms q and exogenous inputs terms b, expressed as
p q b
X t =∑ φi X t−i + ∑ θi ε t−i +∑ ηi d t−i
i=1 i=1 i=1
where ηi represents the parameters of exogenous input d t .

As the model considers the exogenous input, the performance is better than ARIMA model [3’]. Simulations results
has been carried out from the real solar data from the PV sites of California and Colorado to demonstrate the
proposed model for 1h and 2h look ahead times with satisfactory results.

[1’] G.E.p.Box

[2’] A. Pankratz, Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models. New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc., 1991.

[3’] Y. Li, Y. Su, and L. Shu, “An ARMAX model for forecasting the power output of a grid connected photovoltaic system,” Renewable
Energy, vol. 66, no. 0, pp. 78–89, Jun. 2014.

[4’] Y. Chen, A. A. Thatte, and L. Xie, “Multitime-scale data-driven spatiotemporal forecast of photovoltaic generation,” IEEE Transactions on
Sustainable Energy, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 104–112, 2015.