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Internet Value Chain 2022
Internet Value Chain 2022
2022
May 2022
This report was commissioned by GSMA's Regulatory Modernisation Programme team as a contribution to the debate on
digital infrastructure policy and regulation, and we accept no responsibility for any other use that might be made of it. We
thank Kearney, members and colleagues (Ivan Ivanov, Daniel Pataki, Arran Riddle, Mikael Ricknas) for their contributions to
this report.
For further information on this report and other policy research studies, please contact:
Dr. Mani Manimohan, Head of Digital Infrastructure Policy & Regulation, mmanimohan@gsma.com
Contents
Executive Summary..............................................................................................................................................2
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................................4
Value-Chain Dynamics................................................................................................................................. 20
Conclusions................................................................................................................................................................40
Executive Summary
This is an updated edition of the Internet Value Chain report, building on
the internet value chain framework used in the previous report published in
2016. The report assesses the overall size of the value chain, key trends and
dynamics playing out across it, and the economics of individual segments
spanning content rights, online services, enabling technology, internet access
connectivity and user interface, which includes hardware devices.
Since 2015 the internet has continued to grow at enabling more services to migrate online, and the
pace. There were over 4.6 billion users in 2020, expansion of payment gateways to support the ever-
representing 59% of the world population. However, growing volume of internet transactions. Revenues
there is much more to do to connect more people of the internet access connectivity segment have
to what has become an entire economic system. grown at 11% per year since 2015 as more people
In terms of commercial size, the revenues of the and devices are connected to the internet, but all of
segments that make up the internet value chain this growth is a substitution for previously offline or
were $6.7 trillion in 2020, up from $3.3 trillion in 2015. private network services (e.g., voice, MPLS and VPN
The strongest growth over that period has been in services). The user interface segment has grown at
content rights (23% per annum, from a low base), only 6% per annum in total revenue. While there has
and online services (19% p.a.), which now make up been growth in the volume of connected devices,
57% of the entire value chain in terms of revenues. including Smart TVs and smartphones, much of the
The enabling technology segment grew at 13%, and growth has been at the value end, so average unit
the internet access connectivity and user interface prices have declined.
segments at 11% and 6%, respectively.
In terms of overall value chain dynamics, we identify
Growth of online services since 2015 has been driven three key trends:
on the consumer side by the emergence of many
• The largest technology players are in the process
gig-economy services and consumers shifting more
of actively expanding their footprints across the
of their entertainment spend to online services,
value chain, launching new online services and
including online gaming and video streaming
using their scale and existing customer bases
services, while search and social media services have
to drive success in new segments, and also
continued to grow strongly. On the enterprise side,
integrating along the value chain, buying up
there has been a strong, ongoing migration of on-
content rights players and enabling technologies,
premise IT applications to cloud-based services.
and investing in end-user devices. Super-apps
The growth in entertainment has prompted increases emerging in some Asian markets and metaverse
in the activity and revenues of the content rights developments are taking a similar direction of
segment, with online video services paying more integrated platforms and ecosystems connecting
for exclusive television and movie content and the users to online services.
growing value of influencers creating content to
• The majority of online services (61%) are paid-for
reach their followers directly. Gaming content is also
rather than advertising-funded, with growth in
an active subsegment with the gaming platform
gaming, subscription entertainment services and
companies increasingly investing directly.
enterprise cloud-based services all driving growth.
The revenues of the enabling technology segment Advertising revenue growth continues to focus on
have also grown, offering more advanced services search and social media services and ad-funded
including the sophisticated advertising ecosystem video services.
and advanced, hyperscale infrastructure services
2
The Internet Value Chain 2022
• There is a continued shift to online, as consumers the scope of operator activities is being narrowed.
spend more time and money online. The wider As virtualisation of core network functions takes
trend of digitalisation in government and place, hyperscalers can develop and run these
enterprises as part of a major migration from services at a global scale, playing a greater role
stand-alone, on-premise IT stacks to cloud- in core service and network orchestration, while
based services is driving demand for services operators in many markets are separating their
in segments across the value chain, from SaaS infrastructure (i.e., into fibre and tower companies)
(software as a service) applications, to cloud and selling selected assets. If these trends play out
platform services and the connectivity services to their full extent, telecom operators risk becoming
that underpin these. predominantly internet access providers, fulfilling
the sales and service function but with significant
As these trends play out, a study of the economics
capex requirements to build and maintain the access
of the subsegments shows that the returns are
infrastructure.
not equally distributed, since each subsegment
has different underlying economics (e.g., capital In summary, although the internet value chain
intensity, scale factors, market concentration) and is growing strongly, the benefits and returns are
operates within different competition and regulatory flowing principally to players in the online services
frameworks. The online services and user interface segment, while the telecom operators building
segments are benefiting most from value-chain and running the connectivity infrastructure which
growth and generating the largest shareholder underpins these services are not benefitting
returns, whereas the internet access connectivity as strongly as one might expect. Although the
segment has generated relatively low and even operators continue to invest in extraordinarily
single-digit returns on capital. Over the past six complex networks that enable the entire ecosystem,
years, average total shareholder returns have been the low returns raise questions about the robustness
almost flat across the internet access connectivity of continued investment in capacity, coverage and
segment, while other segments have at least speed of the networks to connect internet users
doubled investors’ stakes and some user interface with services. Business leaders and policymakers
players have delivered almost sixfold returns over need to consider the interdependence of the many
the same period. services making up the internet to ensure that
market distortions, regulatory requirements or other
At a time when a greater load is being placed
factors do not limit the ability of participants across
on internet connectivity infrastructure, requiring
the internet ecosystem to make sufficient returns
network operators to increase speed, capacity
and that the right incentives are in place to promote
and coverage, their business model is being
the long-term growth of the value chain and to
squeezed. First, enterprises are replacing high-
realise the full potential of technology and service
margin MPLS and VPN services with more basic
innovation.
internet access services, resulting in an overall loss
of revenue and margin for the operators. Second,
3
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Introduction
The origin of the internet is often described as the effort to make
interconnected networks created for government, academic and defence
establishments more easily accessible to the wider public. While the initial
building blocks of browsers and websites still exist, they have been surpassed
to a large extent by other service types, including streaming and app-based
services, that deliver content and interactions directly to end users on a broad
array of devices. The internet now enables a multitude of applications running
on IT systems hosted in the cloud, the digitalisation of large parts of the
economy, and also government and citizen services.
What has remained constant is the need for an power of the key players and the possible barriers to
underlying infrastructure that connects all these competition in key segments of the internet.
services, however delivered, to end users. It is
With these significant changes in mind, the GSMA
important to understand how well the internet
asked Kearney to prepare this third iteration of
value chain is working in terms of serving end users,
the internet value chain study to make it relevant
promoting innovation and attracting investment
for today’s internet economy. Similar to the two
to the areas that need it most. We first created the
previous papers, the objective of this report is to
internet value chain structure as part of a report in
provide the framework, data and insight to inform
2010 looking at the value chain economics1, which
the ongoing debate.
focussed on the relative size and returns of the
different segments. Back then, the mobile internet Although the scope of the paper is global, inevitably
was only nascent and smartphones were rare (the most of the examples and company financials
Apple iPhone 3G launched in June 2008, followed by used for the analysis are from the biggest markets,
the AppStore a month later). We updated the report namely the United States, Western Europe and
in 20162, using the same framework to understand China, to provide the best macro view of the internet
how the segments had evolved and found that, economy. There will of course be regional and
while online services continued to grow strongly, national differences in how specific services are
there were also signs of the internet economy organised which go beyond the scope of this report.
maturing. There was a surprising lack of change Full details of the methodology are included in the
between 2010 and 2016 in terms of the largest appendix.
internet-based companies (11 of the most visited Note on company names: For the purpose of this
websites in 2010 were still in the top 15 in 2016). report, we refer to Google and Facebook, rather than
More recently, concerns about this concentration their respective listed company names, Alphabet
is leading regulators in many markets, including and Meta, as these mostly closely match the
the US, Europe and Japan, to focus on the market branding of the services we are discussing.
1 https://www.kearney.com/communications-media-technology/article?/a/Internet-value-chain-economics
2 The Internet Value Chain: A study on the economics of the Internet, www.gsma.com/publicpolicy
4
The Internet Value Chain 2022
59%
5.0
56%
52%
4.5
49%
46%
4.0
43% +44%
40%
3.5
38%
35%
3.0
32%
29%
2.5
25%
4.6
23% 4.3
2.0 20% 4.0
3.7
17% 3.4
1.5 16% 3.2
2.9
13% 2.7
2.5
11% 2.2
1.0 9% 2.0
9% 1.8
1.6
6% 1.4
0.5 4% 4% 1.2
2%
0% 1%
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
5
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Monthly traffic volumes (Figure 2) have been growth in the number of users, represents traffic per
growing at 34% per year, which, after accounting for user growth of around 27% every year.
Figure
Figure 2.
2.
Global consumer
Global consumer internet
internet traffic
traffic (average
(average PB
PB per
per month)
month)
181,131
CAGR
+34.4% 139,492
76,871 78%
56,194 77%
41,272
75%
The majority of that growth is coming from video at higher bitstream rates, allowing for higher-
and music streaming (of which 99% is video), driven definition video. In absolute terms, communication
by the growth in the number of subscribers and services (primarily video calling via Microsoft Teams,
higher-quality devices (smartphones, tablets and Zoom etc.) and gaming are also contributing to the
smart TVs) with higher-speed networks enabling growth, making up 16% of total traffic.
those users to consume greater quantities of content
6
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 3.
Apple Microsoft
It is striking to note (Figure 3) that the combined of tools in their efforts to mitigate and manage
traffic of six companies and their various services3 is the impact of the pandemic, from contact tracing
more than all the rest combined. apps on smartphones to test results processing,
vaccination programme roll-out and vaccine
Looking at 2020, internet infrastructure played a
passports. While the social and human cost of Covid
crucial role in the way individuals, enterprises and
has clearly been significant, even severe in many
governments were able to respond to the Covid
respects, without the connectivity and the services it
pandemic and lockdowns. Individuals were able
enables, the economic and social disruption caused
to remain connected with friends and family when
by lockdowns would have been much greater. The
travel was not possible and to entertain themselves
internet infrastructure has been remarkably resilient
when everything else was closed. Many companies
despite the massive shift in usage patterns.
were able to continue operating with surprisingly
little disruption when much of their workforce was The next section looks in more detail at what has
confined to home. For students who could access been happening over the past five years in each
the internet from home, schools were able to of the segments and subsegments and the many
continue teaching remotely, while social media apps dynamics that are playing out across the value chain.
filled the gap in playground interaction for many
children. Governments were able to mobilise a range
3 Meta includes Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, Alphabet includes Google search and YouTube etc.
7
The Internet Value Chain 2022
The Framework
Given the evolution of internet services, we have in 2016 to capture the services that make up the
adapted the internet value chain framework used internet ecosystem today (Figure 4).
Figure
Figure 4.
4.
The internet
The internet value
value chain
chain
8
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Note that we use the term ‘value chain’ throughout enabling technology and services segment. This
this report in its broader sense to describe the reflects the growth of these services and the fact
framework shown in Figure 4, and we talk about the that many are a means of providing end-services
‘value’ or ‘worth’ of segments and subsegments in rather than end-services in their own right.
terms of their global revenues. This differs from a
• Mobile towers — The mobile connectivity
stricter value-chain analysis, which would identify
subsegment is now split into service operators
the specific value added at each step of making a
and mobile tower companies to reflect the
product or providing a service. In practice, each of
restructuring that is taking place in many markets.
the segments within the internet value chain has its
own value chain, such as the chain to build end- We have revised the definitions of several other
user devices from plastic, metal and silicon, or the sub-categories, which are mentioned in the relevant
telecom equipment supply chain, or even the movie sections below.
industry supply chain to make some of the content In the 2016 report, the distinction between business
distributed via the internet. and consumer services was removed as it was
The logic remains the same as that used in 2016, becoming blurred and many services were already
in terms of representing all the players involved being used for both purposes. That trend has
in the end-to-end service experienced by people continued and now many, if not most, online services
using the internet. We have retained the five main are used by businesses and consumers, although
segments — content rights, online services, enabling some are more oriented to one audience than the
technology and services, connectivity and user other. A separate challenge we have addressed
interface — which are divided into 28 sub-categories. in the methodology is defining what is actually
We have sought to keep to the 2016 framework as online versus offline. Our methodology is based on
much as possible, but where we have added new the ‘online share’ of any given service. In retail, for
subsegments or refined definitions, we have restated example, Amazon is clearly an online retailer, and
the comparable 2015 numbers to align with the new high-street retailers were once referred to as ‘bricks
framework and to ensure like-for-like comparisons. and mortar’ enterprises. Now however, many online
As such, some of the subsegment level definitions purchases are made via the websites of high-street
and figures presented here are not directly retailers and may be fulfilled at a physical store.
comparable to those used in the 2016 report. Further Similarly, in content rights, films or sports event
details are included in the methodology section at rights would be sold to TV channels (often pay TV)
the end of this report. and online rights were a secondary consideration.
Now online content rights are frequently sold as an
Key differences with the 2016 report are:
independent package, separate from broadcast or
• Cloud services — In 2016, this was captured within other distribution rights, and online may even be
the online services segment. It is now split, with the primary distribution channel for some content,
cloud-based software services (i.e. SaaS and including for certain major films or sports with
other hosted services) in online services and a a dedicated online channel. In many cases, the
new subsegment named cloud platform and growth in the online services segment is due to
infrastructure services (i.e. platform-as-a-service, this transition from offline to online, not necessarily
infrastructure-as-a-service, etc.) within the absolute organic growth.
9
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Overall Valuation
Using the framework described above, we have services segment generates over half of this revenue,
quantified the overall size of the internet value user interface 14%, internet access connectivity
chain based on the 2020 revenues of each of the 15%, and enabling technology and content rights
subsegments4. Based on this approach, the total generate the remainder. In the following sections
revenue of the internet value chain in 2020 was $6.7 we look at the scope, size and dynamics of each
trillion globally. As can be seen in Figure 5, the online segment.
Figure 5.
E-travel
Design &
Hosting
Video
B2C Retail
Audio
Publishing
Hardware
Gambling Devices
Cloud
(IaaS & PaaS)
Search
IoT
Social
Advertising Tower Cos
B2B Retail Comms Exchanges
Information & reference
Made for
Digital
4 2019 data has been used in a few cases where 2020 would be materially distorted by the pandemic impact, e.g., e-travel. These exceptions are noted in the detailed descriptions
below.
10
The Internet Value Chain 2022
1. Content Rights
Content rights covers the services of individuals and gives it a library of rights to over 4,000 existing
companies that acquire the commercial property films as well as greater ability to make its own
rights to distribute content via the internet and then films.
monetise these rights by selling the content across a
• Made for digital rights. These are rights to
range of internet platforms and services. The overall
the content specifically created for the internet
content rights segment had revenues of $186 billion
(often by the creators directly), such as YouTube
in 2020, making up just 3% of the overall value chain,
channels and videos as well as ‘influencers’
up from 2% in 2015. Although relatively small, the
creating content for their followers across a range
segment has grown at 23% per annum over the past
of platforms, including social media.This segment
five years.
encompasses aspiring amateur content through
We have split this segment into two main types of to professionally written and produced channels
content rights: with millions of subscribers or followers. The
global reach of the internet enables creators of
• Premium internet rights. These are rights to
niche content to connect with an audience made
distribute various types of premium content such
up of relatively small numbers of geographically
as sport, music and entertainment via internet-
dispersed readers, viewers or listeners with
based delivery platforms including subscription
a common interest, therefore making such
and on-demand services. These rights generated
content viable. From a low base, we estimate this
$167 billion in 2020, having grown at 21% per year
segment’s revenues have grown at around 45%
since 2015. Six years ago, most professional rights,
per annum since 2015 to be worth $18 billion in
whether for sports, music, films, TV box sets, etc.,
2020. Since 2015, the commercial mechanisms
were created primarily for offline channels and
to incentivise and reward the creators through
may have had a ‘tiered’ distribution sequence,
a share of revenue from the platforms hosting
starting with cinema, then physical DVD, then
the content (whether subscription-based or
Pay TV and finally free-to-air broadcast. The right
advertising-based) have developed significantly.
to distribute such content online was treated as
These commercial models are supported by
an add-on generating additional revenue. This
the emergence of a sophisticated marketing
situation has now reversed in some cases, as the
ecosystem that connects brands with creators
content budgets of online services such as Netflix
to enable direct sponsorship using product
and Amazon (over $20 billion5 between them in
placement and endorsements. As a result, in 2020,
2019) enable them to commission original content
top-earning YouTubers are reported to earn over
that goes directly online on first release. In fact,
$20m per year, and celebrities such as footballer
in 2019 Netflix was the second largest player in
Cristiano Ronaldo are reported to charge up to
the total entertainment content market (online
$1.6m7 for a sponsored Instagram post. Even
and offline, excluding sports rights) according
non-celebrity influencers can earn over $100,000
to broker RBC Capital Markets6, with 18% of
through sponsored posts.
the market, second only to Disney. Amazon’s
acquisition of MGM studios for $8.5 billion in 2021
11
The Internet Value Chain 2022
2. Online Services
The online services segment is made up of services travel services booked online). It also includes the
that most users would consider to be ‘the internet’, many B2B services that companies use, such as
since it includes social media platforms, online retail cloud-based software applications covering ERP,
stores, the many websites and information services accounting, procurement portals, etc., and is also
that are available, and the services accessed via apps where all the internet advertising is served up to
on a smartphone. It includes digital services that end users as banner ads, search results and in-app
may be delivered and consumed over the internet adverts.
(e.g., music streaming or social media services), and
There is a very wide range of services available via
also non-digital goods and services transacted over
the internet, and so for the purpose of this report
the internet but consumed offline (e.g., physical
and analysis we group them into five clusters.
products bought online, accommodation and
E-COMMERCE
E-commerce services cover both the e-retail and the distinction is very much blurred now. Almost
e-travel segments, where the actual goods and all high-street shops will have an online shop,
services purchased are very much ‘real-world’ rather and although Amazon may be considered a
than online services in their own right. Without the pure online player, it has a very large real-world
internet, the purchases would in most cases be supply-chain network involving more people,
conducted through a different channel (albeit in warehousing and delivery vehicles than most shop
a more time-consuming and less transparent way, chains.
from the user’s perspective). To account for this, and
• E-travel. This includes online travel booking sites
consistent with previous reports, when sizing and
and travel agency services (e.g., Expedia, booking.
valuing these segments we only take into account
com, direct purchases via airlines' own websites,
the margin earned on the transactions by the
and travel apps), as well as newer online ride-
retailers, not the gross value of transactions carried
hailing or ride-sharing services such as Uber, DiDi,
out via these services.
and BlaBlaCar, and other tourism/hospitality
• E-retail. This includes all companies and sharing-economy services such as Airbnb. Before
marketplace sites that sell goods and services the pandemic, the e-travel sector was growing
online, either to consumers or businesses. Any at 24% per annum, with margins growing to be
service where a sales transaction can be made worth $164 billion in 2019, following a similar
online is included, whether directly with a retail transition from offline to online becoming the
site or via an intermediary marketplace (e.g., primary booking channel, whether booking via
eBay) and even if the fulfilment takes place offline an agency, aggregator or direct with the travel
(such as click-and-collect services of high-street provider such as airline or hotel websites. Personal
retailers). Dedicated B2B retail exchanges are also transport and asset-sharing services such as Uber,
included in this subsegment. Since 2015, when Lyft, Airbnb, and local equivalent services have
e-retail margins were almost $1tn, they have also driven growth in this sector by creating new
continued to grow at 19% per annum and are markets and services that increase the size of the
now worth $2.3tn. This growth has been driven sector overall. These services made up around
by a mix of the pure online retailers including 25% of the e-travel subsegment in 2019.
Amazon, Alibaba and TenCent and many more
In 2020, all sectors were affected in some way by
local specialists, as well as many high-street
changing behaviours and economic activity due to
retailers growing and enhancing their online
Covid. While the actual impact will only be visible
channels. While in 2010, and to some extent still
when subsequent years’ data can be used to re-
in 2015, we could think of online retailers as a
establish trend lines, the travel sector was one of
separate category to ‘bricks-and-mortar’ shops,
12
The Internet Value Chain 2022
the hardest hit, and so to avoid a major distortion outlets were closed for extensive periods, and so it
in the data, we used 2019 figures for the e-travel is yet to be seen if this boost will be sustained by a
subsegment. The e-retail sector was almost certainly more permanent shift to online purchasing.
a beneficiary in many countries where high-street
ENTERTAINMENT
Many of the services people access and consume • Audio. This includes services distributing music
via the internet are entertainment-related. Many and spoken-word content (primarily podcasts)
traditional products (tangible items) have been either via streaming or downloads of purchases.
transformed into digital products and services As well as global streaming giants like Spotify,
that are delivered online (e.g., CDs and DVDs Tidal and Amazon music, the subsegment also
transformed into streaming services), providing a includes internet-based radio stations. This
new and enhanced distribution channel for services subsegment has grown the fastest of the
that would otherwise have been enjoyed offline entertainment services, 25% per year, reaching
(remember that Netflix started as a DVD rental-by- revenues of $26 billion in 2020, driven by the
post service). This has also facilitated a shift from the continued expansion of streaming services and
outright purchase of tangible or non-digital items the near total demise of physical distribution
(e.g., music CDs, DVDs) to a more subscription- of these services in mature markets (except for
based service model, especially for video and music. vinyl record sales, which now exceed the value
Similar subscription services exist for books but of CD sales in the US and other markets). In 2015,
have not been adopted so widely (perhaps ironically, streaming services were widely available (both
given that public libraries have been offering a ad-funded and subscription-based), while services
physical version of such a service in many countries, such as Apple’s iTunes offered downloads for
often for free, for over a century). purchase. Since then, the market has moved much
further to subscription-based streaming rather
• Video. This includes services that distribute video
than ‘buy and download’, and Apple has launched
content and are closely linked to the premium
its own streaming service, Apple Music.
rights subsegment of content rights. The revenues
of the video subsegment were $105 billion in 2020, • Publishing. This includes the online equivalent of
having grown at 23% per year since 2015. Up to newspapers, magazines and books. Far more than
2015, these services were generally an alternative being a new way to distribute the written word,
distribution channel for content that was primarily online publishing services offer a rich experience
created for offline consumption (e.g., at a cinema, of multimedia content, with embedded video,
pay TV, DVD sales or movie channels), but the links to supporting materials, and other valuable
large growth, and therefore budgets, of players in features such as advanced search. Examples
this subsegment has resulted in these platforms include dedicated online sites (e.g., HuffPost and
commissioning their own content directly, e.g., BuzzFeed), the online properties of traditional
Netflix (blockbuster films and TV series box publishers (e.g., ft.com) and e-books. Services
sets). Growth has also been driven by the wide may be ad-funded and free to access, fully
availability of high-speed internet access (either subscription-based or a blend of the two.
high-quality fixed or 4G mobile) and adoption Publishing has seen the slowest growth rate
of smart TVs and larger-format smartphones of just 8% per annum, but it is still a significant
with high-quality screens. YouTube and other subsegment with revenues of $58 billion in 2020.
broad access platforms have also improved the
• Gaming. This includes platform-based video
monetisation of their services, primarily through
gaming with an internet connection (Xbox
advertising, which has led to a virtuous circle
Live), casual online games (e.g., Candy
of more professional content driving further
Crush), ‘massively multiplayer’ online games
growth. YouTube has now reached the point
(e.g., Fortnite) that use the internet to
where it offers a subscription option to remove
connect thousands of users around the world
adverts, which could be an area of future growth if
simultaneously within a single game, as well as
consumers prove willing to pay.
online digital purchases that are downloaded to
consoles or PCs. Users may access the services
13
The Internet Value Chain 2022
using various devices, including gaming consoles, • Gambling. This is a subsegment that continues to
smartphones, tablets and PCs, and revenues grow online, despite restrictions in some countries.
are generated via subscription fees, in-game Besides being a new channel for traditional
purchases and advertising. The purchase of bookmakers, the internet has enabled a new form
consoles or hardware is accounted for in the of gambling with exchange platforms allowing
user interface segment. Gaming is the largest customers to offer odds as well as place bets with
subsegment in absolute terms, with revenues of one another and to also gamble on casino games
$272 billion, but it has grown more steadily at 16% such as roulette, poker and slot machines. As
per annum, driven in particular by the rise of free- with e-retail, for this subsegment, we capture the
to-play games with in-app purchases or adverts, gambling service providers’ take, not the gross
and also the steady growth of online gaming amount wagered or paid out. Gambling revenues
platform subscription revenues (e.g., Xbox live, are worth a further $83 billion and have grown at
NVIDIA Geforce Now). a similar rate of 13% per annum over the past five
years.
14
The Internet Value Chain 2022
per day across the major markets, and around add-on to telecoms networks that were built
40% of this time was spent on social media and primarily for voice communication (copper lines
communication apps and a further 30% was spent for fixed networks and 2G mobile networks),
on photo and video apps including YouTube and internet-based communications services are
TikTok. As a consequence, these services have increasingly becoming default services for
continued to grow strongly (almost exclusively direct communications. These services are
advertising driven, except for LinkedIn and dating remote platform-based, detached from the
services), based on more sophisticated analytics physical telecom networks, and not tied to a
enabling micro-targeting of adverts (which tangible phone number or SIM card. Leading
is attractive and valuable from an advertiser’s examples include internet protocol-based (IP-
perspective), and revenues have grown at 27% based) communications services WhatsApp,
per annum since 2015 to be worth $107 billion in Signal, Telegram and WeChat, and B2B unified
2020. In the context of the full value chain, this communications services such as Cisco HUCS
amount is rather modest and much less than users and Jabber. The combined revenues of this
and investors seem to perceive these services to subsegment were $30 billion in 2020, having
have, although the power of network effects and grown at around 9% per annum since 2015.
the depth of data these platforms can gather on Although the basic messaging services are
their users gives them strong potential growth generally free for consumers, platforms are able
opportunities. to generate revenue through in-app features such
as stickers, advertising and margins on payments
• Communication and collaboration services. This
transacted through platforms. Enterprise services
includes the various internet-based messaging
include subscriptions for collaboration tools
platforms and collaboration tools, such as
and IP communications services, as well as paid
Slack and Microsoft Teams. Although consumer
connections to traditional phone networks.
internet connectivity originally grew as an
15
The Internet Value Chain 2022
suppliers with customers more efficiently and When combined, the online services segment is
grow the subsegment and incorporate new by far the largest of the five in the value chain
services that provide analytics and comparisons framework, with $3.8 trillion in revenues. It is also the
that previously would not have been possible, e.g., main driver of growth in absolute terms, growing at
Strava. As a subsegment, service revenues have 19% per annum since 2015. Only the much smaller
grown to $131 billion in 2020 driven strongly by content rights segment grew slightly faster, at 23%.
e-learning services.
The enabling technology and services segment • Online payment gateways and e-wallets. This
covers a wide range of services, often niche, that includes the services that integrate with online
are generally not visible to internet users but are services to enable payment transactions to
essential to the efficient operation of the overall be processed, e.g., e-commerce transactions,
internet infrastructure and provide much of the subscription processing, etc. In many countries,
technology that supports the online services the default method of payment is a credit or
segment. It covers many of the cloud-based debit card, but in locations where such cards
infrastructure and platform services that host online are less widely adopted, e-wallet services have
services, the payment gateway services that enable sprung up to enable online transactions. Such
e-commerce, advertising intermediary exchanges services include PayPal, Paytm and Stripe, and
that serve tailored adverts to users on websites and revenues have grown rapidly over the past five
apps, and Internet of Things (IoT) platforms that years to reach $159 billion in 2020. In valuing
enable the collection and processing of data from this subsegment’s revenues, we have used
the plethora of connected devices. the platform or service providers’ transaction
fees (typically 1-4%), not the gross value of
The overall segment revenues have almost doubled
transactions they process.
in size from $442 billion in 2015 to $812 billion in
2020, representing an annualised growth rate of 13%. • Cloud-based infrastructure and platform
This is slightly below the overall internet value chain services. This covers the cloud-based
growth rate of 15% which is being driven by the infrastructure services offered by the large
continued above-trend growth of the online services infrastructure platforms such as Microsoft Azure,
segment. The enabling technology segment growth Google Cloud Platform, AWS, Alibaba and
correlates strongly with this but does not scale TenCent, which make up a large part of the global
directly with the online services segment because market, although there are smaller national and
many services are based on a per transaction, per regional players. In 2015, these services were
click, per user basis rather than in line with the included within ‘cloud’ as part of the online
transaction value of e-commerce, advertising, etc. services segment, but as they have grown in size
It is also true that competition between companies and sophistication, we have added infrastructure
in the various subsegments has led to unit price and platform services as a subsegment within
pressure, multiple payment gateway providers, the enabling technology segment. Infrastructure
online-focused ad agencies, etc. and platform subsegment revenues have grown
rapidly, at 31% per annum since 2015, to reach
• Design and hosting. This includes sites that
$123 billion in 2020, as enterprises migrate large
incorporate design services, templates and
portions of their IT application estate from private
managed hosting to facilitate updating, tracking
data centres to public-cloud-based infrastructure.
and usage reporting. Although the design and
hosting of websites is a fairly basic building block • Internet of Things. This includes the integration,
and has only grown at 8% per annum since 2015, management and operation of platforms that
the sheer volume of websites mean it is still a collect and process data from IoT type connected
large subsegment with $185 billion in revenues in devices and also the management of them. Most
2020. of the value is in the development and provision of
16
The Internet Value Chain 2022
IoT applications and solutions, which are generally value of the advertising spend being transacted.
bespoke solutions integrating hardware with end- It is also likely that a greater proportion of this
devices and the complex IT stacks to make use of business is being served directly by the large
the data and two-way communication. There is platforms such as Facebook or Google, thus
considerable innovation and use cases for IoT are circumventing the discrete services captured
still emerging, including connected-car services here and limiting the growth of the intermediary
and real-time managed fleet solutions. This services.
subsegment has grown at 16% per annum, faster
• Content delivery services. This covers services
than many other enabling services, to reach $20
that help ensure the smooth interconnection and
billion in 2020. The value for the subsegment does
delivery of traffic and content across the internet,
not include the connectivity between devices nor
regardless of source or destination. While there
the end-user services.
are specialist suppliers such as Akamai, these
• Online advertising services. This includes the services are increasingly integrated into cloud-
enabling platforms, technology and exchanges based IaaS (infrastructure as a service) and
that underpin the online advertising ecosystem PaaS (platform as a service) services to ensure
(but not the actual media spend on the adverts the quality of access to the cloud services. The
themselves, which fund the online services). When providers of these services are major investors in,
a simple banner advert appears on a website, and direct buyers of, long-distance, international
within an app or in a social-media feed, it is often and sub-sea communications capacity, which was
the result of a complex and almost instantaneous previously the domain of the telecom operators.
chain of transactions that takes place behind the However, there is no direct link between the
scenes involving advertising networks, online commercial value of traffic and the volume. So,
agencies and exchanges to determine which while still critical to the internet infrastructure,
user should see which advert and then place the this subsegment’s revenues have only grown at
advert accordingly. The combined value of such around 10% per year since 2015, to reach $198
services has grown from $84 billion in 2015 to billion in 2020. It is also a fiercely competitive
$125 billion in 2020, an annual growth rate of 8%. subsegment that has been able to deliver year-
This relatively low growth rate is partly due to on-year gains in efficiency resulting in unit prices
the value of this subsegment being linked to the falling to offset the increase in traffic volume.
volume of transactions rather than the absolute
The internet connectivity access segment covers revenues and fixed operators reported voice and
the services end-users pay for in order to connect data revenues (though line rental charges support
to and access the internet. For most users this takes both services). These splits were always somewhat
the form of either a fixed connection such as a fibre artificial given that consumers buy a service bundle
broadband or cable connection (most likely with a for a set price, but made sense for analysis purposes
Wi-Fi hub) in their home, or a radio-based mobile in 2016. In 2020, this split made less sense and we
network service, and many users seamlessly switch have taken the view that all consumer revenues are
between the two. Of people with internet access, internet related. For fixed-network business services
around 40% use mobile only, while the remainder we continue to take public internet service revenues
have access to both fixed and mobile. and exclude private network services that do not use
the public internet infrastructure, such as MPLS and
In the two previous reports, on the consumer side,
PSTN voice services.
we allocated only that portion of total customer
spend related to internet connectivity as opposed • Mobile access. This includes mobile service
to traditional person-to-person communication. At revenues only and excludes any payment for
the time of previous reports, many mobile operators handsets (although users will often buy a handset
reported a split between voice, SMS and data and service contract in a single transaction). In
17
The Internet Value Chain 2022
most cases, the main suppliers of these services of the subsegment is captured here in terms of
are mobile network providers (such as Vodafone, consumer revenues.
Verizon Wireless and China Mobile), but end
• Satellite. This covers the services offering internet
users may actually buy services from a range of
access via low Earth orbit satellites, e.g., Starlink
mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs) who
and OneWeb, but these services, while growing
are reselling connections and capacity on these
and generating a lot of attention currently, are
networks in any given country.
very small in absolute revenue terms when
• Mobile tower. This covers independent mobile compared to global fixed and mobile telecom
tower companies that provide services to multiple revenues, and are likely to remain so even in the
operators, a subsegment added since the 2016 mid- to long-term.
report. The subsegment is growing rapidly as
Overall, the total global telecoms sector (including
many operators realise the value-generation
non-internet-related services) has been roughly flat
potential of these assets, carve them out, drive
since 20159, with mobile growth offsetting a slow
multi-tenancy and invite investors or sell them to
decline in fixed revenues in most regions. However, a
large tower companies. To avoid double counting,
much greater proportion of this revenue is related to
we have subtracted the revenue value of this
accessing the internet and a decreasing proportion
subsegment from the mobile access subsegment
to other forms of communication, primarily voice
because payments flow between the two. The
calls and private enterprise data networks. The
value of the whole mobile access subsegment is
internet-related portion of the revenue we attribute
the combination of the two.
to the value chain has therefore increased from $585
• Fixed access. This covers the revenues attributed billion in 2015 to $988 billion in 2020, a growth rate
to internet access services that could be delivered of 11%. On the consumer side, this growth is mainly
to end users over a range of access technologies driven by increased spending on internet services,
such as DSL, cable (DOCSIS), direct fibre and partly substituting spend on the non-internet-related
public Wi-Fi. In most countries, the main suppliers services, as well as steady growth in the overall
are the former incumbent telecoms operator penetration of internet services of around 7.5% per
and a range of newer alternative network annum. Similarly on the business side, there is an
operators, either using their own networks (such ongoing shift from private data-network services
as cable operators) or using unbundled local such as MPLS and Ethernet VPN to public internet-
loops from the former incumbent connected based services using SDN technology to create
to their own core and aggregation networks. In VPNs.
many markets, the investment in upgrading
But, with the transition to internet almost fully
copper-based networks to full fibre is resulting
complete on the consumer side, we expect this
in the emergence of alternative fibre network
growth rate to slow in future. The business services
operators, analogous to the split of mobile tower
transition from private infrastructure to public is still
assets from the operators. In fixed networks, the
ongoing and will also sustain some growth in public
split is less clearly defined, with fibre companies
internet related revenues but, as we discuss in the
using a range of commercial models. Some are
later section [The two-sided squeeze on the internet
wholesale-only and rent lines and capacity to the
access connectivity segment players], this transition
operators, but others have a mixed wholesale and
results in lower overall revenues and margins for the
direct retail model or direct retail. It is therefore
telecom operators.
harder to delineate the services and value them
separately. Regardless of the model, the full value
9 Gartner
18
The Internet Value Chain 2022
5. User Interface
The final segment of the internet value chain, many more devices such as smart TVs, home
user interface, is the most tangible from a user appliances and cars are now connected and used to
perspective and includes the devices, systems access internet-based services. Often users are not
and software used to access the internet and the even aware that they are using an internet service,
services in the other segments. Over the history for example when giving a voice command to a
of the internet, there has been a steady stream of smart-home device or accessing the help menu on
innovation to enable people and machines to be a desktop application. We split this segment into
connected to the internet in a greater variety of devices (which may include embedded software and
ways. While a smartphone or web browser on a PC operating systems) and standalone software when
may still be the most common access mechanism, sold or valued separately to the device it runs on.
HARDWARE DEVICES
As mentioned above, smartphones and PCs are by for their functionality. Game consoles such as the
far the most common devices used to access the Xbox, PlayStation and Switch, while possible to play
internet, making up 43% and 26% of the value of offline, are designed to be connected to the internet
this subsegment, respectively. However, there is to enable multiplayer games, additional game
also a long and growing tail of other devices used content, game downloads and updates, and can also
to connect to specific services on the internet. Most act as access devices for entertainment services via
new televisions are ‘smart’ in the sense that they downloadable apps.
come with the means to connect to the internet to
The devices subsegment was worth $778 billion
access streaming services, which are built into the
in 2020, up from $605 billion in 2015, driven by
menu options (and there are even models launching
continued growth in smartphone sales (2% per
now that do not include an RF tuner). Many smart
annum) and smart TVs (18% per annum). PCs and
TV manufacturers are using Android TV as the
tablets together make up 33% of the subsegment
platform, which enables the streaming services to
but have only been growing at 4% per annum as
be accessed as apps. Streaming media devices such
penetration plateaus and, in the case of tablets,
as Amazon Fire Stick and Roku streaming players
smartphone size and functionality have increased to
can also be connected to televisions to access
provide an attractive alternative. Wearables such as
additional internet-based services and content
watches and VR/AR headsets are also a fast-growing
or are integrated into devices such as Sky Glass
subsegment (28% per annum). The emergence of
(effectively a TV with the set-top-box of the pay-TV
the metaverse may result in these being much more
service fully integrated). Smart home devices and
commonly used internet access devices at some
appliances, including security cameras, doorbells,
point in the future but at present they make up only
fridges and light switches are also becoming more
3% of the subsegment.
common and depend on the internet infrastructure
19
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Office 365 suite of software were higher than the from $24 billion in 2015 to $61 billion in 2020 (21%
traditional license sales for Office. per annum), as enterprises in particular make greater
use of public-internet-based services such as cloud
Overall, this subsegment has grown at 17% per
infrastructure and internet VPNs to replace what had
annum, from $55 billion in 2015 to $11 billion in 2020.
previously been private infrastructure, and adopt
App stores have grown rapidly at 20% per annum,
security applications to enable this. The operating
driven by in-app purchase models and the massive
systems subsegment has been almost flat (4% per
growth of games such as Fortnite. The security
annum), aligned with PC growth rates.
software subsegment has grown equally strongly,
Value-Chain Dynamics
The sustained growth trajectory of the internet value chain is evident when
comparing current data with that of 2008 and 2016, showing overall growth of
15%-16% per annum over 12 years and bringing the total value to $6.7 trillion in
2020 (Figure 6).
Figure 6.
Figure 6.
Segment growth rates
Segment
$ billion growth rates
CAGR
2015-2020
6,675
+15%
186 23%
3,792 19%
3,348
+16%
66
1,595
812 13%
1,182
442 988 11%
37
477 586
188
229 659 897 6%
251
2008 2015 2020
Note: 2015 data restated where category definitions updated in 2020. 2008 totals scaled to align with revised 2015 total
Source: Kearney, CapitalIQ
20
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Much of this growth has been driven by the largest markets is that once connected, although users may
segment, online services, growing at 19% per year upgrade over time to higher speeds and consume
and the much smaller content rights segment more data, this rarely translates into sustained
growing at 23% per year. The enabling technology revenue uplift. Players in the user interface segment
segment grew at a more modest 13%, followed are similarly constrained, although they have
by the internet access connectivity segment some potential to sell additional devices to already
at 11% per annum, driven equally by increasing connected users as well as devices with higher
internet penetration in developing countries and specifications and new designs. While the price
the substitution of ‘non-internet’ services such as of entry-level devices has fallen in many markets,
PSTN10-based voice and MPLS11 (which are outside making them more accessible, the price of top-end
the internet value chain), with public internet devices has also risen significantly, evidenced by the
services. The user interface segment grew at a latest iPhone 13 Pro Max, which retails for around
slower 6% per year rate due to slowing device- $1,100. The online services segment, on the other
refresh cycles and also growth in lower-value devices, hand, has two strong routes to growth. First, the
reducing the average unit price. increase in internet penetration represents new
customers to add to and grow existing services.
Once users have a device and connectivity to
Second, there is considerable growth potential
the internet, it is almost inevitable that a large
in continuing to bring previously offline services
proportion of any additional spend will be on the
online and driving growth through virtualisation,
online services, as they are able to do more online.
e.g., Geforce Now, an online virtual gaming service,
The primary route to growth for internet access
replacing physical consoles.
connectivity segment players is by connecting more
people and more devices. The experience in most
Figure 7.
Figure 7.
Segment size comparison
Segment size comparison
40% 48%
57%
16%
13%
12%
19% 18%
15%
21% 20%
14%
Note: 2015 data restated where category definitions updated in 2020. 2008 totals scaled to align with revised 2015 total
Source: Kearney
10 PSTN — Public Switched Telephone Network — the traditional dial-tone voice service
11 MPLS — Multi-Protocol Label Switching — an advanced form of private IP network service used by Enterprises to connect corporate locations and data centres
21
The Internet Value Chain 2022
As shown in Figure 7, this outperformance of term viability of the other segments that support it.
online services versus other segments of the value We developed this framework in 2008 to understand
chain has resulted in the online services segment how well the value chain is working in financial
representing 57% of the total internet value chain terms, and the questions we addressed then around
revenues, up from 48% in 2015, which itself had its long-term health and viability remain just as
increased from 40% at the time of the first study in relevant now. In the following sections we look
2008. Given this is probably the most diverse of the more closely at specific trends affecting the overall
five segments, covering a multitude of subsegments, value chain and the possible consequences as these
this strong growth is to be expected. That said, it is dynamics play out.
important to keep in mind that this segment is very
much reliant on the smooth operation and long-
Key Trends
22
The Internet Value Chain 2022
2. Integrating services across the value chain the large scale of their online services to create
Several large players are also integrating across so much workload that the other services benefit
the value chain by combining different online from the economies of scale. By having a large
services, enabling technologies and services, and customer base for its Prime Video service, Amazon
end-user devices. By combining components, has the scale to justify buying a film studio, MGM,
these players can innovate quickly and deploy which brings a valuable back catalogue of content
at scale to a large existing base without the as well as the capability to create new, exclusive
complexities of developing interfaces and content that it can bundle, rent or sell via the Prime
integration with third parties. The result can be Video platform. Similarly, through its control of the
a more seamless customer experience for those Android operating system and Chrome browser,
happy to accept some of the limitations that a Google has the scale to develop information services
closed ecosystem model can bring. such as Google maps and traffic services (which
leverages live data captured from Android handsets),
Apple has been a leading proponent of this
the suite of productivity software including Gmail,
approach, leveraging the strong position of the
calendar, online meetings, productivity software
iPhone in the premium user devices segment and
(docs, sheets, slides), photo and back-up services,
a tightly controlled app store to direct customers
and many more. Developing any of these services in
to a tighter range of services and extracting a fee
isolation would be prohibitively expensive and have
from subscriptions and purchases made by online
no clear revenue plan to justify such an investment.
service providers. Apple has grown its services
However, if integrating into an overall ecosystem
division which includes iCloud, Apple Music
with hundreds of millions of users, the costs can
streaming, Apple Fitness+, to the point where it
be spread across a large user base and justified
was responsible for 22% of Apple’s revenue in Q3
by relatively low revenue per user, or even just
2021, bringing in $17.5 billion in that quarter alone.
absorbed as part of the overall cost of ensuring the
Unlike Apple, Google and Amazon have followed full portfolio of services are competitive and remain
a more open, modular approach, offering each of attractive.
the services as a standalone offer but also taking
23
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 8.
Figure 8.
Example service portfolios of major players (illustrative); darker shading indicates the
Example service portfolios of major players (illustrative)
original or core service segment
Darker shading indicates the original or core service segment
Apple Alibaba
Hosted Hosted
Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers
& Platforms & Platforms
TenCent Baidu
Hosted Hosted
Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers
& Platforms & Platforms
Communi-
Communi-
cation
cationand
and Fixed Access Communi- Fixed Access
Social Collaboration
Collabora- Analytics Social cation and Analytics
tion Collaboration
Made for Systems & Made for Systems &
Digital Software Digital Software
Information Online Cloud-based Online
Cloud-based Advertising Information Software Advertising
& Reference Software Services & Reference Services Services
Services
Satellite Satellite
Content Content
Other Online Services Delivery Other Online Services Delivery
Services Services
24
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 8 continued.
Amazon Facebook
Hosted Hosted
Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers
& Platforms & Platforms
Google Microsoft
Hosted Hosted
Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers Publishing Gaming Infrastructure Mobile Towers
& Platforms & Platforms
25
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Putting these two effects together, Figure 8 shows be best known for one or two services, they have
just how broad a footprint some of the large players expanded selectively and now have a presence,
have across the value chain. Although they may often a very strong one, in many other categories.
Consequences
Some of these services, particularly cloud There are already competition concerns that
infrastructure services for example, have very big digital platforms can use their control and
strong scale effects and so it is in the interest of the knowledge of the customer to their own advantage.
providers to keep these as open as possible. Indeed, Developers and retailers selling via the Apple App
one of the biggest, AWS, was created by Amazon Store and Amazon Marketplace have complained
‘delayering’ the infrastructure and technology about being given only very limited visibility or
they had built to support their retail operations access to the end-customers, restricting their
and opening it up by making it available to other ability to grow their own services. The development
businesses as a service. However, in other service of metaverse services is likely to take this trend
areas, a more closed approach restricting access to further with several parallel platforms emerging that
a given platform may make more commercial and integrate multiple segments of the value chain into
technical sense. A closed ecosystem with multiple closed ecosystems extending from the user device
services working seamlessly together also makes to online services and even content.
it harder for users to switch to an alternative. For
The concern about the market power of some
example, the lack of interoperability between various
platforms in certain segments is expanding to
messaging systems means that users leaving the
concerns about the power to control whole
WhatsApp service (as many wanted to in 2021
ecosystems, encompassing devices through to the
due to a change in the terms and conditions of the
online services and the various technology services
service) would effectively force them to leave the
that weave them together.
WhatsApp groups and conversations they are
part of.
26
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 9.
Revenue
Figure 9. sources for online services (excluding e-retail and e-travel)
$ billion
Revenue sources for online services (excluding e-retail and e-travel)
4% 2%
6%
10%
20%
504
(39%) 40%
44%
53%
88%
80%
207
(38%)
777
(61%) 60%
56%
246 47%
59
(24%) 345
(62%)
187
(76%) 12%
2008 2015 2020 Search Social Gaming Publishing Video Audio Other Cloud- Comm's Gambling Information
e-Services Based &
Software Reference
Services
Ads Paid
Despite their similar growth rates, it is clear that Figure 10 shows that the categories driving
since the paid revenue streams make up 61% of this growth are cloud services, other e-services
the total revenue, they have contributed more in (including e-tutoring, health and the labour-based
terms of absolute growth, delivering $432 billion of gig-economy type services, e.g., Byju’s, Strava and
additional revenue since 2015 versus an increase of TaskRabbit), gaming, gambling and video services.
$297 billion in advertising-funded revenues.
27
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 9.
Figure 10.
Growth in paid and advertising revenues, $bn, for online services
Growth in paid
(excl. e-retail and
and advertising revenues, $ billion, for online services
e-travel)
(excl. e-retail and e-travel)
22 728
30 12
68
80
+297
85
40 432
22
37
38
58
78
159
Cloud- Other e- Gaming Gambling Video Informa- Others Paid Gaming Search Social Video Cloud- Others Total
Based Services tion & Growth Based
Software Reference Software
Services Services
The growth in advertising-funded services is still In the paid-for segment, there is clearly still a lot of
coming largely from gaming as well as search and potential for activities that were previously offline
social media services, which are growing strongly to become online services. The effect of Covid
and are predominantly ad-funded. Advertising- and lockdowns resulted in an accelerated growth
funded video is also growing strongly due to of streaming and gaming services as temporary
platforms such as YouTube and other regional replacements for cinema and other real-world
services. There is still potential for online advertising experiences, but early data suggests that while the
growth, and the transition from offline media to accelerated growth of the online services due to
online will be helped by new tools that enable even the pandemic has certainly slowed, e.g., Netflix and
better targeting of adverts. It is also true that those Peleton, much of this transition to online will not
categories driving the growth are where the big be reversed. The strong growth in cloud services is
platforms dominate, and they are also the ones mostly coming from enterprises as they continue to
best able to offer micro-targeted adverts due to digitise and migrate parts or even their full IT stack
the depth of data they hold on a very wide range of to public cloud-based services. Various sources
users. In the US market, Google (including YouTube) show that this particular subsegment is still in the
and Facebook (including Instagram) combined early stages and there is a lot more potential to use
had 54% of the digital advertising market in 202013, public cloud services.
followed by Amazon with a further 10%, leaving only
36% of the market for other players.
28
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Consequences
The continued growth of paid-for online services, with cloud services, companies are locked in to
which are likely to exceed $1 trillion in the next paying the recurring fees until such time they find a
few years, highlights the importance of the entire way to migrate away to another service. Again, it is a
internet infrastructure. The value shown here of $777 trade-off between owning a fixed piece of software
billion is the income to the online service providers, and paying for periodic updates or upgrades when
but there is also the large value of e-retail and needed, versus subscribing to an ever-evolving
e-travel transactions which take place in addition via service and accepting the consequences this has for
some of these services. data ownership and transferability.
It is also important to note that, while cloud-based In the early days of online advertising the basic
software services, gaming, and video and audio premise was advertisers ‘paying for eyeballs’, and
services have been driving growth in subscription so they could make several small payments to
services in both the consumer and enterprise small sites to have same impact as going via large
markets, it also comes with a shift from ownership platform to reach a similar number of people. The
of content and data to a ‘pay to maintain access’ development of the advertising ecosystem has led
situation. With subscription services, all access to to the current situation where the value of eyeballs
the content ends if someone stops their subscription. is based less on volume and more on how much
For consumers, it is a trade-off between access to a is known about them. In this respect the large
very wide library of content for a finite period versus platforms, especially if able to follow users across
owning a small portion of content indefinitely. For multiple services, are able to gather a much richer
businesses, the implications of ending a subscription dataset about users and also to provide access to
are greater. Previously a company may have bought largest target audience pools. Recent changes to
an accounting software package and then spent Apple service to protect user privacy and proposed
many years customising its set-up and populating it changes to Google’s Chrome browser have had
with data which then becomes a significant asset for a substantial impact on Facebook’s advertising
the company (one they probably need to maintain revenues.
and update periodically, as with any asset). However,
29
The Internet Value Chain 2022
30
The Internet Value Chain 2022
from the core to the very edge, even more important either by considering compression techniques or, in
to support future growth. the case of software downloads, timing their traffic
to off-peak times, placing additional strain on the
The connections at all points in the internet also
capacity of connectivity providers. As an example
need to have sufficient capacity at peak times
of what could be done, during the initial onset of
to accommodate increases in demand for traffic.
the pandemic, players like Netflix and YouTube
As shown earlier in Figure 2, traffic is growing at
temporarily downscaled the resolution of their video
34% year-on-year, and this has a direct impact on
distribution in Europe to ease the load on networks,
network operators, which must continually upgrade
which Netflix estimated would reduce its traffic load
the capacity of their networks. Applications that
by 25% 15. However, under normal circumstances,
impose heavy traffic demand on networks (e.g.,
video services look to upscale content as far as
video streaming or game and software updates)
possible while delivering a smooth service.
have no incentive to optimise the traffic they send,
Implications
These developments place a sustained demand internet access connectivity segment risks finding
on the networks, requiring continual investment itself constrained in being able to support the
in coverage, speeds and capacity, and also in growth and innovation across the value chain.
additional computing functionality in the edge The next section looks at the returns across
networks. Without this investment and the flexibility the segments and the potential implications of
to manage traffic and optimise the networks, the unbalanced investment incentives and flows.
15 https://www.politico.eu/article/netflix-moves-to-reduce-traffic-on-european-networks/
31
The Internet Value Chain 2022
16 ROCE — Return on capital employed, measured as EBIT over total assets less current liabilities
32
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 11.
30%
25%
ROCE (%)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Content Rights Online Services Enabling Technology Internet Access Connectivity User Interface
The telco operators making up the internet access returns of between 10% and 15%, while the user
connectivity segment already had low, sub-10% interface segment shows much higher returns linked
returns in 2015 and these have declined since then. to their brand and intellectual property assets (which
The online service, enabling technology and content generate sales and returns but are not classified as
rights segments have been making reasonable capital employed in financial terms).
33
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 12.
20-25%
15-20%
20-25%
10-15%
15-20%
5-10%
10-15%
0-5%
5-10%
Cloud-Based Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
0-5% Software Services Streaming Access
Connectivity
ROCE % defined as EBIT over Total Assets less Current Liabilities
Cloud-Based Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney
Software Services Streaming Access
Connectivity
ROCE % defined as EBIT over Total Assets less Current Liabilities
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney
Figure 13.
EBIT/revenue
25-30% for selected subsegments, 2020
20-25%
25-30%
15-20%
20-25%
10-15%
15-20%
5-10%
10-15%
0-5%
5-10%
Cloud-Based Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
0-5%
Software Services Streaming Access
Connectivity
EBIT % defiCloud-Based Social Media
ned as EBIT as % of Revenues Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
Software
Source: Capital IQ,Services
Kearney Streaming Access
Connectivity
EBIT % defined as EBIT as % of Revenues
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney
15-20%
Figure 14.
Capex
15-20%
10-15% as proportion of revenue for selected subsegments, 2020
20-25%
10-15%
5-10%
15-20%
5-10%
0-5%
10-15%
Cloud-Based Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
0-5% Software Services
5-10% Streaming Access
Connectivity
Cloud-Based
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
0-5% Software Services Streaming Access
Connectivity
Cloud-Based Social Media Video & Audio E-Commerce Search Internet User Device
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney
Software Services Streaming Access
Connectivity
ROCE % defined as EBIT over Total Assets less Current Liabilities
Source: Capital IQ, Kearney
34
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Looking more closely at some of the key subsegments are in an investment phase where
subsegments shows a much wider spread of they are spending to grow the business and
performance. The segments have different expect higher future returns. The challenge for the
economics and business models, so variations in internet access connectivity segment is that while
the financial metrics are to be expected, but it is the internet access revenues may be growing,
worthwhile to examine how they vary. overall their revenues are flat or declining
(discussed further in the later section The two-
• Returns on capital. Figure 12 shows the typical
sided squeeze on the internet access connectivity
returns for selected subsegments, again based
segment players).
on revenue-weighted averages of companies that
best represent the subsegments. In addition to • Capex-to-revenue. Figure 14 shows the capex-
user interface (20%-25%), the social media and to-revenue ratios of companies in each of the
search subsegments stand out, with returns in subsegments. Clearly, different segments have
the range of 15%-20%. E-commerce has more different capital intensities and will spend a
modest returns of 5%-10% due to the competitive, greater or lesser proportion of their income
low-margin business models of large players on capital projects. Social media and search
like Amazon and Alibaba. The internet access categories are investing a relatively high
connectivity segment had average returns of proportion of revenue on capex in order to
5-10% in 2020. Although most of the companies scale up and support their ongoing growth
in this segment are well established, it is also (and future revenues), as well as investing in
a capital-intensive segment with continuous new technologies such as the metaverse which
investment in the infrastructure and assets are yet to generate revenues. Players in the
needed, but also a fragmented (generally to user interface segment typically invest more
national level) and highly competitive segment into R&D and design, but outsource the more
in most markets. Cloud-based software services capex-intensive manufacturing activities to
has the lowest ROCE in 2020 due to this being contract manufacturers. The telecom operators
a relatively new and fast-growing segment with on the other hand are typically spending 10-15%
many start-up type companies making low of revenues rolling out fibre and 5G services,
returns or still in loss-making positions. although some converged European operators
are spending at or even over 20% of revenues
• EBIT17. Figure 13 shows EBIT margins follow a
currently.
similar pattern to ROCE. Social media, followed
by search and user interface have high margins,
being areas where global scale and network
The best way to consider the net impact of the
effects combine to drive strong revenues to the
current and future financial performance and returns
leading players, and having high barriers to entry.
is to look at total shareholder returns, which takes
The more fragmented cloud-based software
into account share price movement and cumulative
services subsegment has much lower margins.
dividend payments over the period. Figure 15 shows
The internet access connectivity providers have
the relative shareholder returns of representative
more respectable margins, typical of established
public companies operating in the selected sub-
and stable businesses. It should be noted that the
categories, indexed to 100 in January 2016. These
lower ROCE and EBIT returns of the other online
are based on blended averages; obviously there
service subsegments (cloud-based software
is a spread of performance across the individual
services, streaming and e-commerce) are
companies.
sustainable as long as they are able to continue
growing, since many of the companies in those
17 EBIT — Earnings before interest and tax (but after accounting for depreciation and amortised costs)
35
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 15.
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan 2016
July 2016
Jan 2017
July 2017
Jan 2018
July 2018
Jan 2019
July 2019
Jan 2020
July 2020
Jan 2021
July 2021
Jan 2022
User Device Cloud-Based Software Services Other Online Services (Gig Economy)
User device companies such as Apple, Sony and have shown more modest but steady growth over
Samsung have delivered consistently over the the period, although concerns about their ability
period resulting in over six times value growth to continue to collect user data to drive their
for their investors on average since 2016. Cloud- advertising revenues (due primarily to changes
based software services and other online services, in Apple privacy controls) as well as increased
including gig-economy services, have had a volatile competition in the sector have impacted their
ride from 2016, but really accelerated from January share price from mid-2021 onwards. The average
2020 as the world adjusted to the Covid pandemic. performance of the internet access connectivity
Share prices have dropped back in recent months segment has delivered the lowest returns over the
but both categories have still delivered four times period, although it has also been the least volatile.
growth for their investors. Social media companies
Implications
The relative performance of these sectors has most prominently the metaverse services, together
important implications, since the expected with the virtual reality and advanced hosting
shareholder returns ultimately determine the technologies needed to facilitate this. The medium
flow of future investments. What is perhaps lost to long-term incentive of telecom operators to keep
in the financial figures is the interdependence of investing capex at rates of up to 20% of revenue
the segments. The lion’s share of the value of the given the sub-10% returns on capital is a particular
digitalisation is being captured by the services that concern, and the performance of their share prices
most palpably touch the end consumer, not by the illustrates this starkly. There needs to be a balanced
connectivity that enables it. approach to the ability to earn fair returns on
investment across the internet value chain if it is
The large online players are already using the income
going to continue to grow. If there is a shortfall in a
from today’s services to make large investments in
particular segment it risks undermining the potential
developing what they plan to be the future services,
of services in dependent segments.
36
The Internet Value Chain 2022
37
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Figure 7.
Figure 16.
Segment size comparison
Evolution of telco revenues (fixed and mobile, consumer and enterprise)
$ billion
-1%
1,394
1,355
370
(27%)
809
(58%)
985
(73%)
585
(42%)
2015 2020
While the internet access service revenues have been a telecom operator service. In some markets,
increased significantly from $585 billion in 2015 to regulators have reserved spectrum bands for private
$985 billion in 2020, this growth has been more than enterprise 5G networks to enable campus networks
offset by the decline in non-internet-related services, and specific 5G applications to be developed, such
primarily private data networks and declining voice as highly automated, connected factories. This
revenues, which have historically been higher- creates an opportunity for the network equipment
margin services relative to the more commoditised vendors, especially those with fully virtualised
internet access services. As a result, total telecom products, and the hyperscale platforms to now
operator revenues for fixed and mobile services compete for this business and bring their global
combined have declined slowly over the period, at a scale to local implementations. Amazon Web
rate of 1% per annum. Services has launched a managed service called
AWS Private 5G to help enterprises set up and run
This revenue and margin loss is being compounded
private 5G networks on their facilities — basically
by the large cloud companies directly buying
extending the software-defined network model
and investing in international capacity to connect
towards the local access network.
data centres, circumventing what has traditionally
38
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Implications
The net result of these two trends is that just when them to increase asset utilisation. They are also
operators are expected to invest in expanding and tapping into infrastructure investment funds to meet
upgrading the access networks, the revenues and capex needs, but in financial terms this replaces
margins they earn from these networks are declining. the upfront capex need with a long-term opex cost
This has a detrimental impact on their ROCE on which still pressures the operators’ margins and
both sides — more capital investment is needed to returns. The clear consequence of such an outcome
upgrade the networks, but the returns are lower as is that with lower revenues and margins, the
revenues for core services decline. potential to invest in the critical access infrastructure
could also be reduced in the long term.
Operators are meeting this challenge in part by
carving out the infrastructure assets and sharing
39
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Conclusions
Overall, the internet value chain continues to grow at a steady 15% per year
and shows no sign of slowing down. There is no shortage of developments,
innovation and expansion into new areas of technology that will enable and
also drive the continued shift of activities that used to be offline into an online
format, whether that is in the form of cloud-based business services and
processes for enterprises or by the acceleration of consumer behavioural shift
towards online, which results in an increased share of time and money spent
online. As innovation moves into entirely new segments and platforms, most
notably metaverse-type developments, future developments may be less
about the next big service, and rather about the emergence of entirely new,
parallel ecosystems.
In the enterprise space, as ever more business- Business leaders and policymakers need to
critical assets and activities are migrated to public- fully appreciate the critical role of the internet
cloud-based infrastructure, the fabric of the internet infrastructure and work to ensure that market
becomes increasingly integral to the daily operation distortions, regulatory requirements or other factors
of enterprises and economies, as the almost instant are not limiting the ability of participants to make
transition to remote working during the pandemic sufficient returns in all segments of the ecosystem
highlighted. and that all segments can make a fair return. This
would sustain long-term investment, and not just
However, as these new revenue opportunities open
those businesses that have the biggest platforms
up across the value chain, the telecom operators
and scale. The telecom operators have an important
building and running the underlying and enabling
role to play and need the right incentives to keep
infrastructure are not necessarily benefitting as
investing in networks, both in core network capacity
much as one might expect. Despite the growth
and increasingly in edge functionality. It is in
across the overall value chain since 2015, the
the interest of the entire ecosystem that robust
ROCEs of the telecom operators, which were
investment continues in the networks required to
already below 10%, have declined further. The
realise the full technological potential of future
returns to their shareholders have been equally low,
internet innovations.
raising questions about the ongoing robustness of
investment in capacity, coverage and speed of the
networks that connect internet users with services.
40
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Methodology
Internet Value Chain Definitions by Segment
Below are further details on the approach taken for the categories and subcategories included in the internet
value chain, with a focus on the revenue sizing approach, to complement the descriptions provided in the
main report.
Content Rights
Content Creators content creators and influencers. This includes sponsoring revenue,
and Influencers share of video advertising revenue as well as podcast advertising
revenue.
41
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Online Services
Products or services ordered using the internet via any device, regardless
of payment or fulfilment method; excludes travel and event tickets.
Includes revenues from ‘click-and-collect’ sales transactions.
Revenues are based on total transaction values less the direct cost of the
B2C Retail
goods or services sold and fulfilment. The percentage to be subtracted is
an estimate based on company reports for leading operators.
Excludes video, music, gaming, e-books, travel, cloud, labour services
which have their own categories (see below).
E-Retail
baggage.
n/a
Online asset sharing and transport-based services are also included
(Uber, Airbnb etc…)
Revenues are based on total transaction values less the direct cost of the
service sold.
42
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Online Services
Music Sales Includes only the revenue share/gross margin of the online service
provider.
Excludes any revenue generated by pirate services.
All revenue from adverts carried within podcasts. Excludes revenue not
Podcasts & directly within the podcast (e.g., banner ads on a web page).
Internet Radio
Share of terrestrial radio advertising revenue originating online.
43
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Online Services
Net revenue from the sale of electronic books (both consumer and
Digital book
business). Includes digital audiobooks services, either subscription or
sales
single copy.
Social Networks
Twitter, LinkedIn and Chinese Weibos.
Social &
OTT VOIP only includes third-party VoIP. That is, it includes VoIP based
communications
Collaboration
44
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Online Services
B2B Information Digital share of revenues from business-focused data and intelligence
Services services.
Online user revenues from paid-for apps, in-app purchases, and any
Other other internet-based user-paid services.
Also includes other web-based or in-app advertising.
45
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Gateways transactions.
IoT applications Software and services that allow IoT developers to build industry and
and solutions application specific features and functionalities .
46
The Internet Value Chain 2022
metrics.
Includes licensing providers only, as cloud-based providers are captured
under the SaaS subsegment of cloud services.
47
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Tablets
Examples of devices included in this subsegment are iPad, iPad Mini,
Android-based tablets, and white-box vendor products.
Smart TVs are TVs having the built-in functionalities to connect to the
internet and offer applications leveraging it. In scope are TVs that are
actively connected to the internet.
Smart TVs An actively connected smart TV is one that: 1) actively accesses online
services or locally shared content from other devices in the home,
without the use of an additional device or accessory, and 2) is used in this
way at least once per year.
18 DOCSIS: data over cable service interface specification; DSL: digital subscriber line; IP: Internet protocol; IPsec: Internet protocol security; MPLS: multiprotocol label switching;
VPLS: virtual private local area network service; VPN: virtual private network
48
The Internet Value Chain 2022
Digital Media Market value of digital media receivers, such as Apple TV, Roku,
Receivers Chromecast, and Amazon Fire Stick.
49
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For more information, please visit the
GSMA website at www.gsma.com/emf