INFORMACION OBTENIDA EN CNEL EP MILAGRO GLOBAL

AÑO Ene Feb Mar Abr May Jun Jul Ago Sep Oct Nov Dic
2011 98.04 100.07 99.68 96.76 97.84 93.76 93.01 94.81 92.77 91.07 97.23 99.84
2012 95.21 98.03 99.24 98.70 100.87 97.68 92.55 97.41 97.94 95.49 100.87 101.10
2013 100.13 103.03 104.27 103.73 105.95 102.67 97.39 102.39 102.93 100.42 105.96 106.19

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA ANUAL

# AÑO MW LINEAL FACTOR LINEAL MW EXPO FACTOR EXPO MW LOG FACTOR LOG MW POT FACTOR POT AÑO Max. Anual
1 2011 96.24 - 96.24 - 96.24 - 96.24 - 2011 100.07
2 2012 97.92 1.02 97.92 1.02 97.92 1.02 97.92 1.02 2012 101.10
3 2013 102.92 1.05 102.92 1.05 102.92 1.05 102.92 1.05 2013 106.19
4 2014 105.78 1.03 122.42 1.19 105.40 1.02 104.62 1.02 2014 110.85
5 2015 109.11 1.03 144.56 1.18 108.55 1.03 108.19 1.03 2015 113.62
6 2016 112.43 1.03 124.25 0.86 111.79 1.03 111.87 1.03 2016 116.46
7 2017 115.80 1.03 133.28 1.07 115.74 1.04 115.68 1.03 2017 119.37
8 2018 119.28 1.03 172.17 1.29 118.57 1.02 119.62 1.03 2018 122.36
9 2019 122.85 1.03 159.02 0.92 121.78 1.03 123.69 1.03 2019 125.41
10 2020 126.54 1.03 172.44 1.08 124.40 1.02 127.90 1.03 2020 128.55
11 2021 130.33 1.03 162.50 0.94 128.68 1.03 132.24 1.03 2021 131.76
12 2022 134.24 1.03 151.86 0.93 132.03 1.03 136.73 1.03 2022 135.06
13 2023 138.27 1.03 195.88 1.29 134.96 1.02 141.38 1.03 2023 138.43
14 2024 142.41 1.03 205.00 1.05 137.93 1.02 148.10 1.05

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA 2011 2024

LINEAL, EXPONENCIAL, LOGARITMICA, POTENCIAL
180.00
f(x) = 2.28895165076772E-46 exp( 0.0545453746007093 x )

160.00

140.00 f(x) = 1.28357850287984E-218 x^66.5585554681241

f(x) = 3.55973350297649 x − 7063.6103853311
f(x) = 6590.63463992389 ln(x) − 50035.251974918 Column C
MW

Linear (Column C)
120.00 Column E
Exponential (Column E)
Column G
100.00
Logarithmic (Column G)
Column I
80.00 Power (Column I)
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 Column M
AÑOS
 INFORMACION OBTENIDA DEL CNEL MILAGRO

DESCRIPCIÓN Unidad 2011 2012 2013

CONSUMO MWh 139,084 148,108 166,331
RESIDENCIAL Abonados 116,946 121,626 128,451

# AÑO PIB DOLARES PIB % MWH LINEAL FACTOR LINEAL ABONADOS FACTOR MWH EXPO FACTOR EXPO ABONADOS FACTOR MWH LOG FACTOR LOG ABONADOS FACTOR AÑO MWH. Anual ABONADOS
1 2011 5634104.02 139,084.30 - 116946.00 - 139,084.30 - 116946.00 - 139,084.30 - 116946.00 - 2011 139,084 116,946
2 2012 5922754.24 148,108.30 1.06 121625.91 1.04 148,108.30 1.06 121625.91 1.04 148,108.30 1.06 121625.91 1.04 2012 148,108 121,626
3 2013 6147818.91 166,330.73 1.12 128450.83 1.06 166,330.73 1.12 128450.83 1.06 166,330.73 1.12 128450.83 1.06 2013 166,331 128,451
4 2014 6424470.76 174,336.00 1.05 135275.70 1.05 210218.03 1.26 136748.80 1.06 4315122.93 25.94 135475.70 1.05 2014 174,436 135,699
5 2015 6580850.97 183,360.00 1.05 142100.60 1.05 229785.26 1.09 143315.09 1.05 4334978.98 1.00 152100.60 1.12 2015 192,453 143,357
6 2016 6814932.90 192,384.00 1.05 148925.50 1.05 251173.82 1.09 150196.68 1.05 4354825.17 1.00 217741.26 1.43 2016 200,896 151,448
7 2017 7049014.83 201,408.00 1.05 155750.40 1.05 274553.25 1.09 157408.70 1.05 4374661.52 1.00 2431340.76 11.17 2017 205,410 159,928
8 2018 7283096.76 210,432.00 1.04 162777.10 1.05 300108.84 1.09 164967.03 1.05 4394488.04 1.00 2901190.57 1.19 2018 209,821 166,954
9 2019 7517178.70 219,456.00 1.04 170106.85 1.05 328043.17 1.09 172888.29 1.05 4414304.73 1.00 3378257.31 1.16 2019 214,512 176,075
10 2020 7751260.63 228,480.00 1.04 178851.10 1.05 358577.65 1.09 181189.90 1.05 4434111.62 1.00 3813395.28 1.13 2020 219,618 186,599
11 2021 7985342.56 237,504.00 1.04 188506.70 1.05 391954.29 1.09 189890.13 1.05 4453908.70 1.00 3352879.89 0.88 2021 224,851 197,263
12 2022 8219424.49 246,528.00 1.04 198771.70 1.05 428437.65 1.09 199008.12 1.05 4473695.98 1.00 3813398.62 1.14 2022 227,574 207,491
13 2023 8453506.42 255,552.00 1.04 208837.80 1.05 468316.91 1.09 208563.94 1.05 4493473.49 1.00 3813395.10 1.00
14 2024 8687588.35 264,576.00 1.04 218704.70 1.05 511908.15 1.09 218578.59 1.05 4513241.22 1.00 4273912.12 1.12

42189 1
55812 2
PROYECCION DE USUARIOS RESIDENCIALES ELECTRICAMENTE 69435 3
PROYECCION DE LA ENERGIA RESIDENCIAL ACTIVOS LINEAL , EXPONENCIAL Y REFERENCIA CNEL 83058 4
LINEAL, EXPONENCIAL Y REFERENCIA CNEL 96681 5
110304 6
600,000.00 230000.00
123927 7
f(x) = 8.9269673922711E-38 exp( 0.0482256710761566 x )
137550 8
500,000.00 f(x) = 4.39100087415104E-83 exp( 0.100207833276985 x ) 210000.00 f(x) = 7784.6636597802 x − 15543013.8699494 151173 9
164796 10
190000.00 Column G 178419 11
400,000.00
Linear (Column G)
MWH ANUALES

MWH ANUALES
192042 12
Column E Column K
300,000.00 170000.00 205665 13
Linear (Column E) Exponential (Column K)
Column T 219288 14
f(x) = 9435.30585828649 x − 18830905.3308483 Column I 232911 15
200,000.00 150000.00
Exponential (Column I) 246534 16
Column S 260157 17
100,000.00 130000.00
273780 18
287403 19
0.00 110000.00
301026 20
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
314649 21
AÑOS AÑOS 328272 22
341895 23
355518 24
369141 25

PROYECCION DE LA ENERGIA RESIDENCIAL PROYECCION DE USUARIOS RESIDENCIALES 382764

396387
26
27
LOGARITMICA ELECTRICAMENTE ACTIVOS LOGARITMICO 410010 28
4600000.00 423633 29
4550000.00
f(x) = 439011780.871951 ln(x) − 3336584572.92041 437256 30
4500000.00 4100000.00
f(x) = 40000000 ln(x) − 300000000
4450000.00 3600000.00
MWH ANUALES

Column M 3100000.00
4400000.00
Logarithmic (Column M)
4350000.00 2600000.00

4300000.00 2100000.00 Column O

4250000.00 1600000.00 Logarithmic (Column O)

4200000.00 1100000.00
2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 600000.00
AÑOS 100000.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

GRAFICA TOTALMENTE FUERA DE RANGOS RELACIONADOS A LOS VALORES ESTIMADOS POR CNEL GRAFICA TOTALMENTE FUERA DE RANGOS RELACIONADOS A LOS VALORES ESTIMADOS POR CNEL

PROYECCIÓN DE LOS USUARIOS RESIDENCIALES ELÉCTRICAMENTE ACTIVOS VS PROYECCIÓN DE LA ENERGÍA RESIDENCIAL VS PIB
PIB
250000.00 300,000.00

250,000.00
200000.00

200,000.00
150000.00
ABONADOS

ENERGÍA

150,000.00
Column G Column E
100000.00
Linear (Column Linear
G) 100,000.00 (Column E)

50000.00
50,000.00

0.00 0.00
6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00 6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00

PIB PIB
 DESCRIPCIÓN Unidad 2011 2012 2013
MWh 94,336 100,816 113,560
COMERCIAL
Abonados 15,442 17,288 18,394

# AÑO PIB MWH LINEAL FACTOR LINEAL ABONADOS FACTOR MWH EXPO FACTOR EXPO ABONADOS FACTOR AÑO MWH. Anual ABONADOS
1 2011 5634104.02 94,336.21 - 15442.00 - 94,336.21 - 15442.00 - 2011 94,336 15,442
2 2012 5922754.24 100,815.61 1.07 17287.86 1.12 100,815.61 1.07 17287.86 1.12 2012 100,816 17,288
3 2013 6147818.91 113,559.89 1.13 18394.33 1.06 113,559.89 1.13 18394.33 1.06 2013 113,560 18,394
4 2014 6424470.76 132,569.05 1.17 18761.41 1.02 120,732.54 1.06 20497.28 1.11 2014 119,706 19,610
5 2015 6580850.97 145,313.33 1.10 19867.88 1.06 133,543.56 1.11 25792.20 1.26 2015 132,713 20,906
6 2016 6814932.90 158,057.61 1.09 20974.35 1.06 145,522.06 1.09 25898.58 1.00 2016 139,186 22,287
7 2017 7049014.83 170,801.89 1.08 22080.82 1.05 158,575.00 1.09 31309.80 1.21 2017 143,016 23,760
8 2018 7283096.76 183,546.17 1.07 23187.29 1.05 172,798.76 1.09 37812.99 1.21 2018 146,964 25,330
9 2019 7517178.70 196,290.45 1.07 24293.76 1.05 188,298.35 1.09 32914.39 0.87 2019 151,033 27,003
10 2020 7751260.63 209,034.73 1.06 25400.23 1.05 205,188.22 1.09 35724.30 1.09 2020 155,226 28,787
11 2021 7985342.56 221,779.01 1.06 26506.70 1.04 223,593.06 1.09 45187.53 1.26 2021 159,546 30,690
12 2022 8219424.49 234,523.29 1.06 27613.17 1.04 243,648.76 1.09 42456.87 0.94 2022 162,154 32,718
13 2023 8453506.42 247,267.57 1.05 28719.64 1.04 265,503.41 1.09 46261.69 1.09
14 2024 8687588.35 260,011.85 1.05 29826.11 1.04 289,318.37 1.09 58291.73 1.26

PROYECCION DE LA ENERGIA COMERCIAL LINEAL Y PROYECCION DE USUARIOS COMERCIALES ELECTRICA-

EXPONENCIAL Y REFERENCIA CNEL MENTE ACTIVOS LINEAL EXPONENCIAL Y REFERENCIA CNEL
340,000.00 70000.00

60000.00
290,000.00 Column D
f(x) = 2.10989883229861E-71 exp( 0.0866178452690068 x ) f(x) = 2.16382306671682E-80 exp( 0.0960321014655152 x )
Linear (Column D) 50000.00
240,000.00 f(x) = 13019.6593717846 x − 26090883.7354413 Column H
Exponential (Column H) 40000.00
Column N Column F
190,000.00 30000.00
f(x) = 1073.96930021979 x − 2143993.38090771 Linear (Column F)
20000.00 Column J
140,000.00
Exponential (Column J)
10000.00
Column O
90,000.00 0.00
2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

PROYECCIÓN DE LOS USUARIOS COMERCIAL ELÉCTRICAMENTE ACTIVOS VS PIB PROYECCIÓN DE LA ENERGÍA COMERCIAL VS PIB

35000.00 300,000.00

30000.00
250,000.00

25000.00
200,000.00

20000.00
ABONADOS

ENERGÍA

150,000.00
15000.00 Column F Column D
Linear Linear
(Column F) 100,000.00 (Column D)
10000.00

50,000.00
5000.00

0.00 0.00
6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00 6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00

PIB PIB
 DESCRIPCIÓN Unidad 2011 2012 2013
MWh 157,323 172,182 193,399
INDUSTRIAL
Abonados 173 216 230

# AÑO PIB MWH LINEALFACTOR LINEALABONADOS FACTOR MWH EXPO FACTOR EXPO ABONADOS FACTOR
1 2011 5634104.02 157,323.42 - 173.00 - 157,323.42 - 173.00 -
2 2012 5922754.24 172,181.70 1.09 216.44 1.25 172,181.70 1.09 216.44 1.25
3 2013 6147818.91 193,399.30 1.12 229.59 1.06 193,399.30 1.12 229.59 1.06
4 2014 6424470.76 220,976.20 1.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
5 2015 6580850.97 242,193.80 1.10 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
6 2016 6814932.90 263,411.40 1.09 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
7 2017 7049014.83 284,629.00 1.08 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
8 2018 7283096.76 305,846.60 1.07 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
9 2019 7517178.70 327,064.20 1.07 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
10 2020 7751260.63 348,281.80 1.06 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
11 2021 7985342.56 369,499.40 1.06 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
12 2022 8219424.49 390,717.00 1.06 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
13 2023 8453506.42 411,934.60 1.05 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
14 2024 8687588.35 433,152.20 1.05 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0!

450,000.00
f(x) = 21497.1291495661 x − 43076128.7293879
400,000.00

350,000.00

300,000.00
Column D
Linear (Column D)
250,000.00

200,000.00

150,000.00
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

PROYECCIÓN DE LOS USUARIOS INDUSTRIA ELÉCTRICAMENTE ACTIVOS VS PROYECCIÓN DE LA ENERGÍA INDUSTRIAL VS PIB
PIB
250.00 500,000.00

450,000.00

200.00 400,000.00

350,000.00

150.00 300,000.00
ABONADOS

ENERGÍA

250,000.00
Column F Column D
100.00 200,000.00
Linear Linear
(Column F) (Column D)
150,000.00

50.00 100,000.00

50,000.00

0.00 0.00
6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00 6000000.00 6500000.00 7000000.00 7500000.00 8000000.00 8500000.00 9000000.00
PIB PIB