ACADEMIA SUMMARIES

Life Cycle–based Assessment of

Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas
Emissions in Almond Production, Part
II: Uncertainty Analysis through
Sensitivity Analysis and Scenario
Testing
The original paper contains 20 sections, with 10 passages identified by our machine learning
algorithms as central to this paper.

Paper Summary
SUMMARY PASSAGE 1

Introduction
Because almond orchards can potentially store significant, although highly variable, quantities of
carbon in biomass and soils (Kroodsma and Field 2006), the effect of accounting for temporary
carbon storage in CO 2 -equivalent (CO 2 -eq) calculations is also explored. The impact of temporary
carbon storage on net GHG emissions has not typically been considered in previous studies of
orchard and other perennial food and feed crops.

SUMMARY PASSAGE 2

Methods And Materials

Almond production is modeled at the orchard scale over a typical 26-year orchard life cycle. The life
cycle of the orchard begins with orchard replanting, because in California orchards are commonly
planted on land previously used for orchard production (Duncan et al. 2011a(Duncan et al. ,
2011bConnell et al. 2006Connell et al. , 2012. The orchard begins to yield almonds in year 3, with
increasing annual yields until year 7, followed by yield stability until orchard removal.
SUMMARY PASSAGE 3

Scenario Analysis
Scenarios were developed for influential components of each of the submodels; these include the
biomass accumulation, removal, and fate scenarios; irrigation energy use; N 2 O emissions from
orchard soils; and fuel combustion in field equipment. Additional scenarios were developed that test
alternative LCIs for grid electricity, as well as composite scenarios that cut across all submodels to
identify the potential minimum and maximum. The BAU scenario is referred to as scenario M1 in
figures and tables.

SUMMARY PASSAGE 4

Biomass Accumulation, Removal, And Fate Scenarios (Scenarios

B1 To B10)
To develop the biomass accumulation model, data on biomass per ha and per tree were collected
through cooperation with orchard removal companies. These companies remove entire orchards and
weigh the mass removed before sale to biomass power plants, providing estimates of above-ground
biomass and part of the root mass at the end of the orchard life. Thus, measured biomass values are
available only for mature orchards at removal (model year 25) and for saplings from the nursery
(model year 1).

SUMMARY PASSAGE 5

Composite Scenario Analysis (Scenarios M2 To M3)

The full range of potential GHG emissions and energy use for California almond production were
obtained by combining the various submodel scenarios. The large number of interactions between
submodels made this calculation more complex than simply choosing the lowest and highest
emissions or energy-use scenario for each submodel.

SUMMARY PASSAGE 6

Temporary Carbon Storage

Temporary storage of carbon in tree biomass, and carbon storage in orchard soils, is accounted for
based on net annual changes in carbon stored or emitted. Carbon uptake by trees over time is
modeled using the growth model, as described previously. Whereas carbon storage in trees is
reasonably well characterized based on data collected as part of this study, the potential for soil
carbon storage is not well characterized and likely to be highly variable, given that it depends on a
wide range of factors, including soil type, temperature, moisture, biomass input, and management (Li
et al. 2004;Kroodsma and Field 2006).
SUMMARY PASSAGE 7

Sensitivity Analysis
Tables S2 and S3 in the supporting information on the Web provide detailed numerical results for
both GWP over a 2-year time horizon (GWP 20 ) and GWP 100 . Scenarios that include increased
resource use (e.g., increased water use owing to 100% flood irrigation as in scenarios I3 and I7) or
less-productive uses of orchard biomass (e.g., in-field burning of orchard waste biomass as in
scenario B10) typically result in increased net emissions and energy use. Some results were
unanticipated, however.

SUMMARY PASSAGE 8

Scenario Analysis
The scenario results, as a group, demonstrate a very large range of plausible net cumulative
emissions and energy use over the orchard life span, with standing biomass accounting for a
substantial amount of stored carbon and biomass throughout (figure 4).

SUMMARY PASSAGE 9

Temporary Carbon Storage In Orchard System

A similar reduction (on an absolute basis, not percentage basis) is observed when co-product credits
are included. Figure 5 illustrates these results and shows that carbon stored in standing biomass is
more significant than storage in orchard soils. The difference between TAWP and GWP results are
substantial and indicate that this may be an important factor to consider in future studies of orchards
and other long-lived perennial cropping systems.

SUMMARY PASSAGE 10

Discussion Of Results
The results highlight a number of areas where management and policy interventions may have a
large effect on emissions and energy consumption in California almond production. The greatest
effects are obtained though changes in the treatment of biomass, with open burning causing the
largest increases in GHG emissions and lost opportunity for energy production. Fortunately, this
practice has declined substantially owing to air quality regulations, as well as the increasing value of
biomass as a fuel resource for renewable electricity (CEC 2014).