SKENARIO HISTORIS PEMODELAN TSUNAMI

SSTUDI POTENSI BENCANA KEBUMIAN (GEMPABUMI, TSUNAMI, DAN LIKUIFAKSI) PADA INFRASTRUKTUR KETENAGALISTRIKAN MILIK PT
PLN (PERSERO) DI LOKASI TERSEBAR

Tabel 1 Skenario pembangkit tsunami historis (Bagian 1)

Skenario H01 Skenario H02 Skenario H03
Segmen Gempa Aceh 2004 Nias 2005 Mentawai 2010
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 4 Seg. 5 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 4 Seg. 5 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 4 Seg. 5 Seg.6 Seg.7 Seg.8
Referensi (Grilli dkk., 2007) (Banerjee dkk.., 2007) (Satake dkk.., 2013)
Kedalaman (km) 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 32,000 29,500 19,500 32,000 32,000 1,733 3,328 5,893 8,458 11,023 13,588 16,153 18,718
Panjang (km) 220,000 150,000 390,000 150,000 350,000 65,000 85,000 100,000 80,000 140,000 272,163 272,163 272,163 272,163 272,163 272,163 272,163 272,163
Lebar (km) 130,000 130,000 120,000 95,000 95,000 77,300 96,600 81,100 77,300 77,300 19,967 17,861 21,047 21,047 21,047 21,047 21,047 21,047
Strike (°) 323,000 348,000 338,000 356,000 10,000 325,000 325,000 325,000 325,000 325,000 322,406 322,406 322,406 322,406 322,406 322,406 322,406 322,406
Dip (°) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 15,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000 7,000
Rake (°) 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 97,000 91,000 107,000 119,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000 98,000
Lat. Episenter (°) 3,830 5,220 7,410 9,700 11,700 2,710 2,107 1,371 0,815 0,004 -3,176 -3,105 -2,989 -2,874 -2,759 -2,643 -2,528 -2,413
Long. Episenter (°) 94,570 93,900 93,210 92,600 92,870 96,223 96,543 96,939 97,551 98,116 99,322 99,415 99,564 99,713 99,862 100,010 100,159 100,308
Slip (m) 18,000 23,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 0,300 12,300 8,200 3,100 0,200 2,244 3,177 1,381 0,117 0,020 0,003 0,002 0,004
Aset PLN yang
PLTMG Nias, PLTU Teluk Sirih PLTMG Nias, PLTU Teluk Sirih PLTMG Nias , PLTU Teluk Sirih
Berpotensi Terdampak

Tabel 2 Skenario pembangkit tsunami historis (Bagian 2)

Skenario H04 Skenario H05 Skenario H06 Skenario H07

Segmen Gempa Ambon 1852 Ambon 1674 Flores 1992 Irian Jaya 1996
Seg. 1 Seg. 2 Seg. 1 Seg. 2
(Pranantyo & Cummins, 2020) (Matsutomi dkk.., 2001);
Referensi (Fisher & Harris, 2016) (Imamura dkk.., 1995)
(Løvholt dkk.., 2012) (Henry & Das, 2002)
Kedalaman (km) 10,710 10,710 14,500 7,810 7,810 7,286
Panjang (km) 270,000 270,000 202,000 50,000 50,000 320,000
Lebar (km) 80,000 80,000 80,000 25,000 25,000 92,000
Strike (°) 190,000 220,000 73,000 61,000 61,000 109,000
Dip (°) 15,000 15,000 20,000 32,000 32,000 9,000
Rake (°) 90,000 90,000 90,000 64,000 64,000 72,000
Lat. Episenter (°) -5,671 -7,866 -2,970 -8,462 -8,296 -0,996
Long. Episenter (°) 133,097 131,998 126,130 122,178 122,598 136,361
Slip (m) 12,000 12,000 8,000 9,600 3,200 14,971
PLTMG Mobile PP (Jayapura),
PLTG/MG Mobile PP Sultra
Aset PLN yang PLTMG Langgur, PLTMG Saumlaki, PLTMG Fakfak, PLTMG Mobile PP
(Kendari), PLTMG Ambon Peaker, PLTMG Bau Bau, PLTMG Mobile PP (Flores)
Berpotensi Terdampak PLTMG Langgur, PLTMG Saumlaki (Manokwari), PLTMG Biak,
PLTMG Seram
PLTMG Serui, PLTMG Sorong
 Tabel 3 Skenario pembangkit tsunami historis (Bagian 3)

Skenario H08 Skenario H09 Skenario H10 Skenario H11

Segmen Gempa Lombok 28/7/2018
Sumba 1977 Papua Barat 2009 Ambon 1950
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3
(Pranantyo & Cummins, 2020);
Referensi (Gusman dkk.., 2009) (Fujii dkk.., 2011) (Salman dkk., 2020)
(Løvholt dkk., 2012)
Kedalaman (km) 35,000 14,530 33,560 7,820 10,250 12,680
Panjang (km) 200,000 80,000 179,000 25,950 25,950 25,950
Lebar (km) 70,000 40,000 80,000 9,400 9,400 9,400
Strike (°) 270,000 112,000 275,000 117,050 117,050 117,050
Dip (°) 45,000 36,000 40,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Rake (°) -70,000 77,000 90,000 76,920 81,240 100,770
Lat. Episenter (°) -11,278 -0,516 -4,985 -8,183 -8,257 -8,330
Long. Episenter (°) 119,685 133,034 128,899 116,567 116,529 116,492
Slip (m) 9,269 3,640 8,278 0,172 0,456 0,165
PLTMG Mobile PP (Flores), PLTMG Mobile PP (Manokwari), PLTMG Ambon Peaker,
Aset PLN yang PLTMG Biak, PLTU Lombok
PLTMG Waingapu, PLTMG Seram, PLTMG Langgur,
Berpotensi Terdampak PLTMG Sorong
PLTU Lombok, PLTU Timor PLTMG Saumlaki,

Tabel 4 Skenario pembangkit tsunami historis (Bagian 4)

Skenario H12 Skenario H13 Skenario H14 Skenario H15 Skenario H16
Segmen Gempa Lombok 5/8/2018 Lombok 19/8/2018 Padang 2009 Seram 1998
Maluku 2014
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3
Referensi (Salman dkk., 2020) (Salman dkk., 2020) (Gunawan dkk., 2016) (Hayes, 2017) (Hayes, 2017)
Kedalaman (km) 7,750 15,450 20,950 10,320 16,550 21,530 23,130 59,400 78,000 96,600 6,900 20,500 34,100
Panjang (km) 52,920 52,920 52,920 42,940 42,940 42,940 200,000 65,000 65,000 65,000 168,000 168,000 168,000
Lebar (km) 21,490 21,490 9,210 14,740 14,740 8,850 40,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 15,000 15,000 15,000
Strike (°) 80,000 80,000 80,000 95,720 95,720 95,720 200,000 71,340 71,340 71,340 196,000 196,000 196,000
Dip (°) 21,000 21,000 21,000 25,000 25,000 25,000 65,000 53,500 53,500 53,500 65,000 65,000 65,000
Rake (°) 73,240 72,880 63,220 101,200 90,050 52,110 75,000 145,960 140,790 142,790 -149,220 -154,510 -153,970
Lat. Episenter (°) -8,178 -8,357 -8,485 -8,211 -8,331 -8,427 1,510 -0,692 -0,810 -0,927 -2,077 -2,061 -2,045
Long. Episenter (°) 116,289 116,320 116,343 116,756 116,744 116,734 126,374 99,863 99,903 99,943 124,914 124,859 124,804
Slip (m) 0,306 0,392 0,016 0,343 0,807 0,306 0,183 0,044 1,511 0,467 2,321 1,069 0,803
PLTMG Minahasa,
Aset PLN yang PLTU Lombok PLTU Lombok PLTMG Mobile PP (Sofifi) 10 PLTMG Nias, PLTU Teluk Sirih PLTMG Ambon Peaker
Berpotensi Terdampak
MW, PLTMG Halmahera
 Tabel 5 Skenario pembangkit tsunami historis (Bagian 5)

Skenario H17 Skenario H18

Segmen Gempa Bengkulu 2007 Minahasa 2008
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 4 Seg. 5 Seg. 6 Seg. 7 Seg. 1 Seg.2
Referensi (Fujii & Satake, 2008) (USGS, 2008) (Hayes dkk., 2017)
Kedalaman (km) 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 29,000 18,000 28,500
Panjang (km) 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 120,000 120,000
Lebar (km) 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 50,000 28,000 28,000
Strike (°) 327,000 327,000 327,000 327,000 327,000 327,000 327,000 93,000 93,000
Dip (°) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 22,000 22,000
Rake (°) 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 114,000 87,330 89,000
Lat. Episenter (°) -4,919 -4,540 -4,161 -3,782 -3,402 -4,673 -3,535 1,462 1,228
Long. Episenter (°) 101,289 101,044 100,799 100,554 100,308 101,666 100,931 122,184 122,171
Slip (m) 4,260 1,280 5,720 9,290 2,400 0,870 3,160 0,110 0,796
Aset PLN yang Berpotensi PLTMG Minahasa,
PLTMG Nias, PLTU Sebalang, PLTU Teluk Sirih
Terdampak PLTU Anggrek / Gorontalo
Gambar 1. Ilustrasi Skenario Historis Pemodelan Tsunami
 SKENARIO PROBABILISTIK PEMODELAN TSUNAMI
SSTUDI POTENSI BENCANA KEBUMIAN (GEMPABUMI, TSUNAMI, DAN LIKUIFAKSI) PADA INFRASTRUKTUR KETENAGALISTRIKAN MILIK PT
PLN (PERSERO) DI LOKASI TERSEBAR

Tabel 1 Skenario pembangkit tsunami probabilistik (Bagian 1)

Skenario P01 Skenario P02 Skenario P03 Skenario P04

Segmen Gempa Seg. Mentawai-Siberut Seg. Mentawai-Siberut Seg. Mentawai-Pagai Seg. Enggano Seg. Selat Sunda Seg. Selat Sunda
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3
(Tim Pusat Studi Gempa (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa
Referensi Nasional, 2017) + Tim (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional, 2017) + Tim Seismologi (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional, 2017)+ Tim Seismologi Nasional, 2017) + Tim
Seismologi Seismologi
Kedalaman (km) 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500
Panjang (km) 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 275,000 340,000 340,000 340,000 340,000 340,000 340,000
Lebar (km) 156,095 58,888 56,294 156,095 58,888 56,294 165,224 65,573 56,865 204,440 92,487 49,398 154,727 89,034 57,539 154,727 89,034 57,539
Strike (°) 321,454 321,454 321,454 321,454 321,454 321,454 323,240 323,240 323,240 296,516 296,516 296,516 297,000 297,000 297,000 297,000 297,000 297,000
Dip (°) 7,361 19,854 26,366 7,361 19,854 26,366 6,953 17,758 26,081 5,614 12,489 30,404 7,427 12,981 25,753 7,427 12,981 25,753
Rake (°) 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 94,000 94,000 94,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 104,000 104,000 104,000 104,000 104,000 104,000
Lat. Episenter (°) -1,843 -1,253 -0,956 -1,843 -1,253 -0,956 -3,770 -3,159 -3,616 -5,335 -4,151 -3,616 -7,349 -6,385 -5,829 -7,349 -6,385 -5,829
Long. Episenter (°) 99,019 99,832 100,205 99,019 99,832 100,205 100,668 101,485 101,894 102,028 102,619 102,886 104,384 104,875 105,158 104,384 104,875 105,158
Slip (m) 14,017 14,017 14,017 14,017 14,017 14,017 12,827 12,827 12,827 12,827 12,827 12,827 15,926 15,926 15,926 15,926 15,926 15,926
Aset PLN yang
PLTMG Nias, PLTU Sebalang PLTU Sebalang
Berpotensi PLTMG Nias, PLTU Teluk Sirih
PLTU Teluk Sirih
Terdampak
 Tabel 2 Skenario pembangkit tsunami probabilistik (Bagian 2)
Skenario P05 Skenario P06 Skenario P07 Skenario P08 Skenario P09
Seg. Bali Seg. Halmahera Seg. Sorong
Segmen Gempa
Seg. Sulawesi Seg. Sangihe Seg. 1 Seg. 2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg. 2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg. 2 Seg. 3
Seg. 1 Seg.2 Seg. 3 Seg. 1 Seg.2
Barat Barat Barat Tengah Tengah Tengah Timur Timur Timur
(Tim Pusat Studi
(Tim Pusat Studi
(Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Gempa (Tim Pusat Studi
Gempa Nasional,
Referensi Nasional, 2017) + Tim Nasional, 2017) Gempa Nasional, 2017) (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional, 2017) + Tim Seismologi
2017) + Tim
Seismologi + Tim + Tim Seismologi
Seismologi
Seismologi
Kedalaman (km) 10,000 30,000 52,500 32,500 52,500 52,500 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500 10,000 30,000 52,500
Panjang (km) 600,000 600,000 600,000 500,000 575,000 236,966 204,143 100,290 100,290 100,290 123,910 123,910 123,910 205,528 205,528 205,528
Lebar (km) 148,312 73,681 68,593 90,690 32,796 31,945 32,635 115,175 77,274 59,155 115,175 77,274 59,155 72,559 53,389 51,567
Strike (°) 271,119 271,119 271,119 88,147 190,430 26,949 0,403 107,110 107,110 107,110 87,599 87,599 87,599 116,243 116,243 116,243
Dip (°) 7,750 15,750 21,375 21,000 49,667 51,500 50,000 10,000 15,000 25,000 10,000 15,000 25,000 16,000 22,000 29,000
Rake (°) 90,000 90,000 90,000 93,000 86,000 104,000 104,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000 80,000
Lat. Episenter (°) -10,402 -9,420 -8,813 1,500 2,714 1,465 -0,215 -0,516 -1,325 -1,877 -0,628 -1,474 -2,052 -0,765 -1,247 -1,629
Long. Episenter 116,510 116,529 116,541 121,757 124,826 128,246 127,834 131,178 130,929 130,759 132,226 132,262 132,286 133,574 133,336 133,148
(°)
Slip (m) 28,426 28,426 28,426 23,602 27,218 11,020 9,465 4,584 4,584 4,584 5,688 5,688 5,688 9,531 9,531 9,531
PLTMG Minahasa,
PLTMG Minahasa,
PLTMG PLTU Anggrek /
PLTU Anggrek /
Minahasa, Gorontalo,
Gorontalo,
PLTU Anggrek / PLTMG Ambon
PLTMG Ambon Peaker,
Aset PLN yang Gorontalo, Peaker,
PLTMG Seram, PLTMG Mobile PP (Jayapura), PLTMG Mobile PP (Manokwari),
Berpotensi PLTMG Mobile PLTMG Seram,
PLTMG Mobile PP PLTMG Biak, PLTMG Serui, PLTMG Sorong
Terdampak PP (Sofifi) PLTMG Mobile PP
(Sofifi), PLTMG
Halmahera, (Sofifi), PLTMG
Halmahera,
PLTMG Mobile Halmahera,
PLTMG Mobile PP
PP (Tobelo) PLTMG Mobile PP
(Tobelo)
(Tobelo)
 Tabel 3 Skenario pembangkit tsunami probabilistik (Bagian 3)

Sekenario P10 Skenario P11 Skenario P12

Seg. Papua Flores Backarc Thrust Maluku Tapal Kuda (Laut Banda)
Segmen Gempa
Lombok- Seram Tanimbar- Tanimbar- Tanimbar-
Seg. 1 Seg. 2 Seg. 3 Bali NTT Wetar NTB Seram FTB 1
Sumbawa FTB 2 Kai 1 Kai 2 Kai 3
(Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional,
Referensi (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional, 2017) + Tim Seismologi (Tim Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional, 2017) + Tim Seismologi
2017) + Tim Seismologi
Kedalaman (km) 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500 10,500
Panjang (km) 310,000 84,000 236,000 95,000 121,000 217,000 173,000 300,000 214,000 81,000 189,000 300,000 250,000 310,000 84,000 236,000
Lebar (km) 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 20,065 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609 18,609
Strike (°) 90,717 93,669 88,303 40,492 82,425 97,077 74,977 97,901 131,771 144,101 192,287 220,544 260,726 90,717 93,669 88,303
Dip (°) 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 60,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000 45,000
Rake (°) 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000 90,000
Lat. Episenter (°) -7,996 -7,898 -8,157 -7,917 -7,547 -8,215 -8,204 -2,705 -3,459 -4,460 -5,704 -7,584 -8,719 -7,996 -7,898 -8,157
Long. Episenter (°) 117,389 115,659 124,167 125,684 126,451 120,473 122,298 129,740 131,701 132,629 132,744 131,581 129,502 117,389 115,659 124,167
Slip (m) 14,494 3,826 10,974 10,026 10,026 10,074 7,995 24,276 24,276 3,687 8,750 14,017 11,639 14,494 3,826 10,974
PLTMG Mobile PP (Jayapura),
Aset PLN yang PLTMG Mobile PP (Manokwari),
Berpotensi Terdampak PLTMG Biak, PLTMG Serui, PLTMG
Sorong
Gambar 2 Ilustrasi Skenario Probabilistik Pemodelan Tsunami