Unit-2

Risk analysis and assessment

Risk is defined as a situation involving exposure to danger or the possibility that something
unpleasant will happen
Risk Analysis: An analytical process to provide information regarding undesirable events or a
process of estimating probabilities and expected consequences for identified risks.
Detailed examination including
 Risk assessment,
 Risk evaluation and
 Risk management alternatives
This is performed to understand the nature of unwanted outcome.
Risk assessment is an integral part of decision/policy making processes and its
implementation should involve and require close collaboration among all the sectors of society.
The first step in Risk Analysis is to identify the existing and possible threats that you might
face. These can come from many different sources; they could be:

 Human – Illness, death, injury, or other loss of a key individual.

 Operational – Disruption to supplies and operations, loss of access to essential
assets, or failures in distribution.
 Reputational – Loss of customer or employee confidence, or damage to market
reputation.
 Procedural – Failures of accountability, internal systems, or controls, or from fraud.
 Project – Going over budget, taking too long on key tasks, or experiencing issues
with product or service quality.
 Financial – Business failure, stock market fluctuations, interest rate changes, or
non-availability of funding.
 Technical – Advances in technology, or from technical failure.
 Natural – Weather, natural disasters, or disease.
 Political – Changes in tax, public opinion, government policy, or foreign influence.
 Structural – Dangerous chemicals, poor lighting, falling boxes, or any situation
where staff, products, or technology can be harmed.
 Run through a list such as the one above to see if any of these threats are relevant. Think
about the systems, processes, or structures that you use, and analyze risks to any part of these.
What vulnerabilities can you spot within them, ask others who might have different perspectives.
If you're leading a team, ask for input from your people, and consult others in your organization,
or those who have run similar projects.
Scope and objectives of risk assessment of industries
 To develop a risk hazard checking system.
 To rank the plant layout on the hazard potentials.
 To re-modify the plant layout and identify safety measures to be undertaken within the
industry, so as to minimize the on-site economic damage as well as off-site risks to the
society and environment.
 To assist the regulatory authorities, planners, and designers to investigate plant accidents
and predict the possible consequences for decision-making.
 To make decisions on industrial clearance swiftly and on a more rational basis.
Purpose of Risk Assessment
Employers in each workplace have a general duty to ensure the safety and health of workers
in every aspect related to their work. The purpose of carrying out a risk assessment is to enable the
employer to take the measures necessary for the safety and health protection of workers.
These measures include:
 Prevention of occupational risks;
 Providing information to workers;
 Providing training to workers;
 Providing the organization and means to implement the necessary measures.
Whilst the purpose of risk assessment includes the prevention of occupational risks, and this
should always be the goal, it will not always be achievable in practice. Where elimination of risks
is not possible, the risks should be reduced and the residual risk controlled. At a later stage, as part
of a review program, such residual risk will be reassessed and the possibility of elimination of the
risk, perhaps in the light of new knowledge, can be reconsidered.
The risk assessment should be structured and applied so as to help employers to:
  Identify the hazards created at work and evaluate the risks associated with these hazards,
to determine what measures they should take to protect the health and safety of their
employees and other workers, having due regard to legislative requirements;
 Evaluate the risks in order to make the best informed selection of work equipment,
chemical substances or preparations used, the fitting out of the workplace, and the
organization of work;
 Check whether the measures in place are adequate;
 Priorities action if further measures are found to be necessary as a result of the assessment;
 Demonstrate to themselves, the competent authorities, workers and their representatives
that all factors pertinent to the work have been considered, and that an informed valid
judgment has been made about the risks and the measures necessary to safeguard health
and safety;
 Ensure that the preventive measures and the working and production methods, which are
considered to be necessary and implemented following a risk assessment, provide an
improvement in the level of worker's protection.
Steps of Risk Assessment
1) Hazard Identification
2) Dose-Response Assessment
3) Exposure Assessment
4) Risk Characterization
1) Hazard Identification
Hazard identification involves gathering and evaluating toxicity data on the types of
health injury or disease, it may be produced by a chemical and the conditions of exposure
under which injury or disease is produced. The subset of chemicals selected for the study
is termed “chemicals of potential concern”.
Hazard identification Data may be from acute, sub chronic, and chronic dose-response
studies are used it includes.
 H.R.A. (health risk analysis) would have a priority ranking of studies that would involve
humans and other mammals.
 E.R.A. (Ecological risk analysis) would use different species in different tropic levels;
 For the collection of Hazard identification data test species selected are generally
representative of naturally occurring species with practical considerations such as ease of culture,
sensitivity, availability, and existing databases also involved.
It uses scientific data to determine if a "causal" relationship exists between the pollutant
and adverse effects on health or the ecology
Scientific methods to identify health hazards
a) Case cluster
A study based on the observation of an abnormal pattern of health effects in some
population group
b) Animal bioassay
A study based on comparative findings of lab experiments on living organisms
before and after exposure to some hazard
c) Epidemiology
A study of causes and distribution of disease in human populations based on
characteristics like age, gender, occupation, etc.
2) Dose-Response Assessment
The dose-response assessment step of the risk assessment process quantitates the hazards
that were identified in the previous step. It determines the relationship between dose and incidence
of effects in humans.
The dose-response assessment involves describing the quantitative relationship between
the amount of exposure to a chemical and the extent of toxic injury or disease. Uses data from the
hazard identification to devise a profile of the pollutant’s effects. The dose-response relationship
gives the quantitative relationship between doses of the contaminant and corresponding reactions
There are normally two major extrapolations required:
a) From high experimental doses to low environmental doses.
b) From animal doses to human doses.
The procedures used to extrapolate from high to low doses are different for
assessing carcinogenic effects and non-carcinogenic effects.
 3) Exposure Assessment
Exposure assessment is the process of estimating or measuring the magnitude,
frequency and duration of exposure to an agent, along with the number and characteristics of
the population exposed. Ideally, it describes the sources, pathways, routes, and the
uncertainties in the assessment. it is the science that describes how an individual or population
comes in contact with a contaminant, including quantification of the amount of contact across
space and time.
For example, even for an extremely toxic (high hazard) substance, the risk of an adverse
outcome is unlikely if exposures are near zero. Conversely, a moderately toxic substance may
present substantial risk if an individual or a population is highly exposed.
Applies a generalized dose-response relationship to specific conditions for some
population, Characterizes the sources of an environmental hazard, concentration levels at that
point, pathways, and any sensitivities.
Steps involved in Exposure Assessment are
 Characterization of exposure setting
 Identification of exposure pathways
 Quantification of exposure
 Characterize the Exposure Setting
 What are the situations which could lead to exposure?
 What would lead to high exposure, medium exposure, and low exposure?
 Describe the situations for the various exposure scenarios.
 Who are the people / animals exposed?
Exposure Pathways
The route a substance takes from its source (where it began) to its endpoint (where it ends),
and how people can come into contact with (or be exposed to) it is defined as an exposure
pathway.
All potential exposure pathways are considered with an analysis of
 the contaminants released
 the fate and transport of the contaminants
 the population exposed to the contaminants
An exposure pathway has five parts:
 A source of exposure, such as using a consumer product for a household task or a chemical
spilled from a truck onto a highway.
 An environmental media and transport mechanism, such as movement through the
indoor or outdoor air or groundwater.
 A point of exposure, such as a person's house or a private well.
 A route of exposure — eating, drinking, breathing, or touching.
 A receptor population — a person or group of people potentially or actually exposed.
When all five parts are present, the exposure pathway is termed a completed exposure pathway
Identification of Exposure Pathways
 Contaminated groundwater – ingestion (drinking water), dermal contact (bathing), and
inhalation of volatile organic compounds (showering)
 Surface water and sediments – incidental ingestion and dermal absorption of
contaminants
 Contaminated food – ingestion of contaminated fish tissue, vegetables and fruit grown
in contaminated soil or covered with contaminated dust, meat, and dairy products.
 Surface soils – ingestion and dermal absorption of contaminants by children playing in
dirt
 Fugitive dust and VOC emissions – inhalation by nearby residents or onsite workers
 Subsurface soil and air-borne contaminants – future land-use conditions during
construction activities
 Contaminated mother milk – nursing infants whose mothers were exposed to highly
toxic contaminants
Quantification of Exposure
Quantity of exposure = Type of Chemical X Intake X Retention Factor X Length of Exposure
For Noncarcinogens- Maximum Daily Dose (MDD)
For Carcinogens- Lifetime Average Daily Dose (LADD)
𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐀𝐯𝐞𝐫𝐚𝐠𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐃𝐨𝐬𝐞
𝐭𝐲𝐩𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐡𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐥 𝐱 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐱 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐜𝐭 𝐅𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐱 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐃𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧
=
𝐁𝐨𝐝𝐲 𝐖𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 𝐱 𝐋𝐢𝐟𝐞𝐭𝐢𝐦𝐞
 4) Risk characterization
The final stage in the risk assessment process involves predicting the frequency and
severity of effects in exposed populations. The conclusions reached from the stages
of hazard identification and exposure assessment are integrated to determine the
probability of effects likely to occur in humans exposed under similar conditions.
Most risk assessments include major uncertainties, it is important to describe
biological and statistical uncertainties in risk characterization. The assessment should
identify which components of the risk assessment process involve the greatest degree of
uncertainty. In general, it is a description of risk based upon an assessment of a hazard and
exposure to that hazard.
In includes Two major features:

 Quantitatively identifies the magnitude of the risk and a way to compare one risk to
another
 Qualitatively gives context to the numerical risk value

Exposure Assessments (MDD/LADD) and Toxicity Assessments are integrated to give a

probability of a negative effect. Risk characterization is conducted for individual chemicals and
then summed for mixtures of chemicals.
For Non-carcinogenic chemicals:
The Maximum Daily Dose is compared to the RfD (reference dose). If MDD is < RfD,
then no problem- except when dealing with multiple chemicals.
For Carcinogenic Chemicals:
You determine the “upper confidence Limit on Risk”
UCL Risk = Slope Factor x LADD
Units for Slope Factor are (mg/kg/day)-1 (milligrams of pollutant per body weight per day)
Units for LADD are mg/kg/day
Therefore, units cancel and you get a unit-less number, this unit-less number represents the
increase in the number of cancer cases per year due to chemical
Virtually Safe Dose (VSD)
May be determined for those carcinogens not assumed to have a threshold. Virtually safe
doses are calculated by regulatory agencies to represent the level of exposure to such carcinogenic
agents at which an excess of cancers greater than that level accepted by society is not expected
 This was initially defined (1961) as 1 extra cancer death per 100 million people
exposed
 Currently the EPA uses 1 extra cancer death per 1 million people exposed.
 California uses 1 extra death per 100,000 people exposed.
Qualitative Component of Risk Characterization
 Can be measured using probabilities: Some based on actuarial risks (using factual
data), number of victims relative to number exposed, some are inferred from animal
bioassays or epidemiology studies
 Can be measured using a reference dose: (RfD), (Rfd is exposure to a hazard that can
be tolerated over a lifetime without harm)
Qualitative Component of Risk Characterization Comprises of:
 Description of hazard
 Assessment of exposure and any susceptible groups
 Data used
 Scientific and statistical methods used
 Underlying assumptions
It identifies scientific uncertainties, data gaps, measurement errors and etc.

Toxicology Risk Assessment (TRA) include:

 Evaluation of the toxicity of the individual chemical ingredients of the formulation used
to manufacture the product:
 Each ingredient is assessed for its hazard or "inherent" toxicity such as acute toxicity,
skin/eye irritancy, potential for skin sensitization, reproductive, genotoxic, or
carcinogenic activity, in relation to the potential for consumer exposure to the chemical
 Potential for synergistic or unpredictable adverse effects from the combination of
ingredients in the formulation
 Exposure considerations:
  characteristics of the product such as physical form and size/volume
 accessibility (e.g. liquid components)
 intended use
 Consideration of potential for misuse of the product
 Packaging compliance guidance and advice on mandatory label requirements
Ecological Risk Assessment
Ecological Risk Assessment involves the assessment of the risks posed by the presence of
substances released to the environment by man, (ERA) are performed to evaluate the likelihood of
adverse ecological effects occurring as a result of exposure to physical or chemical stressors. These
stressors are defined as any biological, physical, or chemical factor that causes adverse responses
in the environment.
An ERA evaluates any potential harm that human activities have on living organisms
within ecosystems. Within the framework of an Ecological Risk Assessment, scientific
information is developed, organized and presented so that it is relevant to environmental decisions,
it evaluates the probability of changes to the natural environment linked to such stressors as
pollution exposure or climate change, e.g., crop damage, soil contamination etc.,
Environmental Protection Agency EPA, (MoEF in India) has developed guidelines aimed
specifically at ecological risk assessment

Three phases of ecological risk assessment are

 Problem Formulation;
 Analysis;
 Risk Characterization
a) Problem formulation
 Identify the ecological entity that is potentially at risk is identified.
 Determine which characteristic of the entity may be at risk and the entity’s overall
importance or relevance
 Develop a model to show links between the ecological entity and the environmental
stress or with an accompanying description
 b) Analysis Phase
Identifies information needed to predict ecological responses to environmental
hazards under various exposure conditions,
It Prepares calculations to quantify the risk
e.g., Hazard quotient
Ratio of a contaminant concentration to some benchmark
e.g., Bioaccumulation rate
Measures how pollutants are taken up by an ecological species.
c) Risk characterization
Description of risk based on information gathered from previous phases
 Provides degree of confidence in the risk estimates,
 Evidence that supports the findings, and
 An interpretation of predicted ecological effects
 Included are such risk descriptors as severity of the damage, time over which
damage occurs, and extent of the damage in terms of numbers and types of
species
Hazard identification and analysis

 The risk assessment begins with the identification of natural phenomena, accidental or
deliberate man-made events (“hazards”) that could have a significant, adverse impact
on society.

 It Identifies and analyze the characteristics of events (“hazards”) that could have a
significant, adverse or disruptive impact on the population, assets, and economy
 Generate a range of hazard scenarios and determine the likelihood of selected hazard
events
 Collect and disseminate data on hazards in standardized formats and promote
consistency and interoperability of national, sub-national, regional and global hazard
databases
 Hazards can be described, e.g., in terms of physical phenomenon,
probability/frequency, location/path, intensity/scale, and duration.
  The immediate causes and sources of hazards need to be identified, whether they
originate on the national territory or from abroad, as well as any interlinkages (e.g.
earthquake leading to a tsunami) or external drivers (e.g., climate change, deforestation,
suburban development) that could affect exposure, vulnerability, or possibly the hazard
itself. Identifying risks arising from interconnections or inter linkages may present
complexities, which have to be acknowledged when conducting risk assessment.

Risk evaluation

 Based on hazard, exposure and vulnerability analyses, evaluate risk

 Document outcomes and assess the level of uncertainty

Risk monitoring and re-evaluation

 Monitor hazards and threats over time, observe and project changes to evolving
exposures and vulnerabilities, and update necessary data
 Update risk assessment periodically including identifying improvements in risk
assessment governance and data quality
 Identify emerging risks and future potential risks over the longer term

Vulnerability and impact analysis

Vulnerability and Impact Assessment is to determine the primary historical, current and,
likely, future impacts associated with drought and to assess the root cause of these impacts, i.e,
vulnerability assessment.
Impact and vulnerability assessment is directed at gaining an understanding of both the
natural and human processes associated with drought and the impacts that occur. An outcome of
vulnerability and impact assessment is the creation of a vulnerability profile for each sector, region,
population group or community, i.e., vulnerability mapping.
 Identify exposed populations, assets and activities, and characterise the nature of these
exposures, including physical, social, economic, and environmental
 Identify and analyze the factors that render exposed populations, assets, and activities
susceptible to damage
 Estimate, if possible, the potential impacts from hazards, including physical, human,
financial and economic, social, and environmental
  Establish location-based inventories of exposed populations and assets and of the
infrastructures that reduce exposure and vulnerability
Risk Communication
Def: "The interactive process of exchanging information and opinion among individuals,
groups, and institutions involving multiple messages about the nature of risk.”
Risk communication is the interactive exchange of information and opinions concerning
risk and risk-related factors among risk assessors, risk managers, and other interested parties, it is
an important tool for disseminating information and understanding about a risk management
decision. This understanding and information should allow stakeholders to make an informed
conclusion about how the decision will impact their interests and values.
Objectives of Risk Communication
 Awareness
 Understanding risks and decisions
 Appropriate involvement
 Trust and confidence
 Effectiveness and efficiency
Risk communication is useful in the following situations:
 Explaining the chance of a risk impact (probability) and the predictability of the risk
impact (stochastic);
 Outlining the difference between risk (dependent on scenarios) and hazard (found
within a specific area);
 Dealing with fears and uncertainties around pops related illnesses;
 Dealing with any long-term effects from the risk and risk management;
 Improving the overall understanding of risk based terminology and concepts;
 Delivering an understanding of how risk management decisions will impact lifestyles;
 Creating a venue where uncertainties can be addressed and questions answered;
 Improving the transparency and credibility of those implementing the risk
management;
 Dealing with conflicting interests and cultures of the various interested and affected
parties;
  To provide accurate and timely information as well as essential coordination during an
emergency
 To inform the public of potential risks and steps being taken during an emergency
 To aid individuals, stakeholders, or communities to accept the imperfect nature of
choices and to make best possible decisions during an emergency
What the Public Wants to Know
 What is the threat?
 How does it harm people?
 How will I know if I’ve been exposed?
 Signs and symptoms (long/short term)
 How can I protect myself/my family?
 How is it treated?
 Where can I get more information?
Where are People Going for Information?
 Television news
 Newspapers
 Website
 Local health bureau
 Community residents’ committee
 Local hospital
 Emergency Center
 Neighbors
Emergency Communication Challenges
 Uncertainty
 High potential for altered or conflicting recommendations
 People are looking at multiple channels to check on rumors
Principles of Emergency Risk Communication
 Trust
 Announce early
 Transparency
 Listen to and involve the public
 Planning
 Knowing the audience
 Involving the scientific experts
 Involving communication experts
 Being a credible source of information
 Sharing responsibility
 Timeliness

a) Trust
“Trust must come before the crisis”
The public perception of:
Motives: Are responders acting to protect my health and the health of my family?
Honesty: Are the responders holding back information?
Competence: Are the responders capable of controlling the outbreak?
b) Announce Early
First Announcement
 The most critical of all outbreak communication messages
 Must be early
 Likely to be wrong
c) Transparency

Barriers to Transparency:

 Real or perceived competing interest (economic vs. public health)

 Spokespersons uncomfortable with delivering bad news
 Fear the media will misrepresent bad or uncertain news
 Concern the public can’t tolerate uncertainty or will “panic”
 Official belief that if you say nothing, nothing will happen
d) Listen to and involve the public
 State continued concern before stating updates
 Acknowledge uncertainty
 Emphasize a process in place
 Tell people what to expect
 Give people things to do
 Let people choose their own actions
 Ask more of people
 Acknowledge people’s fears
 In every message, try to use
 Empathy
 Action
 Respect
e) Pre-Crisis Communication

Be prepared
promote alliances
Pre-crisis Develop recommendations
through consensus
Test audience messages
Nine steps of disaster communication

Public Information Release

Select the appropriate channels of communication and apply them with STARCC:
Simply
Timely
Accurately
Repeatedly
Credibly
Consistently
A Qualitative Shift in India’s Strategy
The Government recognized the need for a shift from a post disaster reactive
approach to a pre-disaster pro-active approach:
 Preparedness
 Mitigation
 Prevention
 The Disaster Management Act 2005 – enacted on 23rd December, 2005 lays down
institutional and coordination mechanism at all level and provides for establishment of Disaster
Mitigation Fund and Disaster Response Fund at national, state and district level.
Government of India: Nodal Ministries / Department for Disaster Management Are Listed
Below
DISASTERS NODAL MINISTRIES
Natural Disasters Agriculture
Air Accidents Civil Aviation
Civil conflict Home Affairs
Railway Accidents Railways
Chemical Disasters Environment
Biological Disasters Health & family Welfare
Nuclear Accident Atomic Energy
Risk management
Disaster management is defined as effective organization, direction and utilization of
available counter-disaster resources.
The modern view is that there must be pre disaster mitigation measures to avoid or reduce
the impact of disasters. Pre-disaster measures to prevent or mitigate disasters are called Risk
Management.
Disaster risk management is the application of disaster risk reduction policies and strategies
to prevent new disaster risk, reduce existing disaster risk and manage residual risk, contributing to
the strengthening of resilience and reduction of disaster losses.
Preparatory phase
The preparatory phase of disaster response includes all of the activities that help a society
and the disaster agencies to prepare for a disaster event. These activities are broadly classified as:
a) Disaster prevention:
The objective of prevention is to prevent the disaster from occurring.
 b) Disaster mitigation:
Disaster Mitigation is essential measures taken in advance of a disaster aimed at
minimizing or eliminating the impact of disaster on community and environment, it accepts
that some natural event may occur, but it tries to lessen the impact by improving the
common ability
Two components: Reducing hazard and Reducing vulnerability
 Reducing hazard:
 Protection against threat by removing the cause of threat
 Eg. Construction of trees along banks of river to reduce chance of flooding
 Tree plantation
 Reducing vulnerability:
 Reducing the effect of threat
 Eg. Constructing buildings as per bylaws in NBC
 Most of the natural hazards are unpreventable, therefore, we mostly work towards reducing
vulnerability
Disaster mitigation measures
a) Passive mitigation measures.
b) Active mitigation measures.
Passive mitigation measures.
Active mitigation measures.

c) Disaster preparedness:
Disaster preparedness assumes that a disaster will occur; it focuses on structuring
the emergency response and on laying a framework for recovery.
Risk Management Responding to Risk
Risk management is the decision-making process of evaluating and choosing from
alternative responses to environmental risk
It involves Two major tasks:
 Determining what level of risk is “acceptable” to society
 Evaluating and selecting the “best” policy instrument to achieve that risk level
1 Determining “Acceptable” Risk
 The extent of risk reduction determines the level of exposure and stringency of
policy
 Should exposure be set to 0? If not, what positive level is appropriate?
 Officials might use minimum risk as baseline
  Might use comparative risk analysis to compare risk of environmental hazard to
other risks faced by society
2 Selecting policy response
Evaluates alternative policies capable of achieving “acceptable” risk level
Selects “best” option
 How? Uses risk management strategies
Risk Management Strategies
• Used to evaluate options in a systematic way
• Key considerations are
 The level of risk established
 The benefits to society from adopting the policy
 The associated costs of implementing the policy
• Prevalent risk management strategies are
 Comparative risk analysis
 Risk-benefit analysis
 Benefit-cost analysis
Comparative risk analysis: is an evaluation of relative risk, known as risk to risk analysis
when used to select from alternative policy instruments
Risk-benefit analysis: involves assessing the risks of a hazard along with the benefits to
society of not regulating that hazard
Benefit-cost analysis: uses the economic criterion of allocative efficiency
"Five-R Strategy"
Disaster management is based on “Five-R Strategy" of
 Rescue
 Relief
 Restoration
 Rehabilitation
 Reconstruction
Risk management is associated with three main phases
• Risk analysis and assessment: identification of hazards to people and the environment,
the determination of the probability of occurrence of these hazards, and the magnitude of
the events.
• Risk limits - entails defining the acceptability of the risk, which can be classified as
acceptable or in need of reduction.
• Risk reduction: design and implementation of risk-reducing measures and controls.