Kingdom Business Community:

Macroeconomic Outlook 2023

T Yudo Wicaksono
Office of Chief Economist Group
PT. Bank Mandiri, Tbk.

1
Key Messages

• The global economy is in the rare combination of slow growth and

high inflation
• It will shift the policy stance from recovery to stability
• The Indonesian economy is relatively shielded yet there will be some impacts

• Recovery takes across all board, but global economic slowdown would
have some impacts on certain sectors

• Consumers have been resilience, yet spending appears to run out of

steam as we enter 2H22
Global & Indonesia
Economic Outlook
Key Messages

• The global economy is in the rare combination of slow growth and

high inflation
• It will shift the policy stance from recovery to stability
• The Indonesian economy is relatively shielded yet there will be some impacts

• Recovery takes across all board, but global economic slowdown would have
some impacts on certain sectors

• Consumers have been resilience, yet spending appears to run out of

steam as we enter 2H22
Global economy post Pandemic: Inflation Battle raises Recession Risk

2022 2023 2024 2025

Hawkish Monetary Policy Expectation US Recession

FFR Hikes to 4.5% by Dec-22 FFR expected to increase further to FFR is expected to be lower and back to long term targeted level
Global Unwinding Fed’s Balance Sheet 4.75% by Dec-23
Risks
Recession Worries in Advanced countries, China’s economic slowdown, Geo-Political Instability (Russia-Ukraine; China-Thaiwan; US-Euro Area vs. Russia-China)

Higher Commodity Prices Lower Demand Pressure on Commodity Prices

BI Liquidity Normalization continue, faster unwinding of BI bonds; OJK stimulus on credit restructuring ends
BI Liquidity Normalization in Mar-2023
GWM Hikes to 9% by Sep-22
BI7DRRR to raise further by 25-50 bps
Domestic Risks
BI Raise BI7DRRR 150 bps to 5%, Fiscal Consolidation (Deficit lowered to 3% of GDP)
&
Unwinding of BI’s bond ownership
Opportunities started COVID-19 Credit restructuring policy ends in March-23, watch out for the potential
cliff effect that follows

Fuel Price Hikes Political Year National Election New Government

Trade Surplus Trade Surplus Narrows, CA Deficit

§ Tighter IDR liquidity, GWM hikes

expected to absorb 260-300T of
banks liquidity
Implications
§ Tighter USD Liquidity, due to
strong dollar and higher USD
rates overseas
§ IDR liquidity to continue tighten as credit growth accelerates amid BI rate
hike, faster BI unwinding bonds ownership and fiscal consolidation
§ Liquidity back to pre-
pandemic level
§ USD Liquidity may remain tight, as recession may lead to commodity price
correction and lower trade surplus
Summary of Future Risks
Measurable Risks Black Swan

• Global economic growth slows in 2023, with

possible recession

• The Fed’s benchmark rate peaked in 2023

and then lowered • Geopolitical factors: Increased Asia-
Pacific Tension due to China-Taiwan
• BI’s normalizing benchmark rate and liquidity Relationship, US-China high tension
• Indonesia’s 2024 elections: policies to
remain pro-growth, subsidies will be • China’s hard landing or recession
prioritized, direct cash transfers will continue
• Re-emerging pandemic limiting
• Lowering commodity prices limit
mobility as in 2020
government revenues; spending allocation
will focus on direct cash transfers to maintain
budget deficit cap at 3%
IMF revised down global economic forecast

Global Economic Recovery Trajectory

8 6.8
3.7 3.7
6 6.1
4.5 4.8 4.5
4.3 3.6 3.9
3.7 5.2
4
3.5 3.8 3.6 3.2
GDP growth (%)

3.3 2.8
2 2.9 2.7
2.4 2.5 2.3 2.5
1.8 1.6 1.4
0 -2.0
2.4 1.1
-2

-4 -3.1

-4.5
-6
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022F 2023F

World Advanced Economies EM and Developing Economies

Source: IMF’s Jul-22 WEO

7
 Commodity price shock causing inflation pressure
Spot Forecast price in Forecast price in
End of period price Average price Forecast price in 2022
Price 2023 2024
OCE OCE
Futures F’cast F’cast
Bloom Bloom Bloom
2022 Price Russian Russian
11 Consens Consens Consens
Commodit (11 OCE EOP Invasion Invasion OCE OCE
August, 2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021 us us us
y August F’cast (11 of of F’cast F’cast
2022 (August (August (August
YTD) August, Ukraine Ukraine
2022) 2022) 2022)
2022) (<6 (>6
Months) Months)

Oil Brent
99.6 66.0 51.8 77.8 64.2 43.3 70.9 104.6 102.5 106.2 97.2 119.7 148.1 86.0 95.0 72.2 86.0
(USD/bbl)

CPO*
FOB
Malaysia
967.4 743.4 967.8 1,240.8 524.9 667.6 1075.4 1,384.0 984.5 1,483.7 1.042,9 1,486.0 1,711.0 939,3 1,207.3 780,7 1,097.6
(USD/Ton)

Coal
Newcastle 401.0 67.7 80.5 169.6 78.0 60.3 136.3 332.0 262.4 288.0 366.5 290.2 349.1 168.8 174.0 117.3 139.0
(USD/Ton)

Gas Euro
TTF
(USD/MMB 61.0 3.5 5.6 19.2 4.8 3.3 16.2 36.2 - - - - - - - - -
tu)

Gold
(USD/ Troy 1,789.7 1,517.0 1,898.0 1,829.2 1,394.0 1,772.0 1,799.3 1,854.0 1,875.3 1,852.7 1,807.2 1,951.8 2,187.8 1,850.1 1,850.0 1,835.8 1,863.0
Ounce)

LME
Nickel
Price
23,659 14,025 16,613 20,873 13,937 13,849 18,458 27,127 25,992 27,279 23,692 27,712 31,564 24,000 23,981 23,362 23,000
(USD/ Ton)

Rubber
1.50 1.45 1.50 1.78 1.41 1.32 1.68 1.69 1.71 - 1.49 1,75 1,81 1,61 - 1,47 -
(USD/Kg)

Source: Bloomberg (as of 5-Aug-2022; OCE; *USD/MYR 2022 = 4.1)

Surging Global Inflation caused by supply chain disruption, tight labor market post
pandemic and commodity price sharp increase due to Russia Ukraine War

Global Inflation Rate

KOR 3.7
5.7
8.39 @9.1%, Jun22 @10%, Aug22 @17.8%, Apr22 @6.3%, Jul22
RUS 14.3
BRA 10.06 @10.1%, Jul 22
8.73 @24.6%, Sep22 @2.7%, Jul22
@3%, Aug22
IND 5.66
7
CHN 1.5 2021
2.5
PHL 3.1 Aug-22
6.3
THA 2.17
7.86
SGP 4
7.5
MYS 3.2
4.7
IDN 1.87
4.69
@8.9%, Sep22 @7.8%, Apr22
EUR 5 @5.95%, Sep22
9.1
GBR 5.4
9.9
@12.1%, Apr22 @83%, Sep22 @69.8%, Sep22 @6.9%, Sep22
USA 7
8.3

9
The US benchmark rate sharply increase in response to the sharp
hike of inflation
Fed Funds Rate Comparing Cycles of US Interest Rate Hikes
3.5
4.50 Changes in FFR (ppt)
04-06
3.0
4.00 Inflationary
3.25 Pressure
2.50 3.50 Current cycle 88-89
2.5 2.25 2.25 is much 2022 94-95
2.50 3.00 faster Hike cycle
2.00 after the GFC
2.00 2.50 Inflationary 15-18
2.0
1.75 1.75 Pressure, tight
1.75 2.00 labor market
1.50
%

99-00
1.5
1.25 1.50

1.0
1.00 1.00

0.50
0.50
0.5 0.25 Months since hiking cycle started
0.00
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37
0.0
2022 88-89 94-95 04-06 99-00 15-18
Nov-1 7

Nov-1 8

Nov-1 9

Nov-2 0

Nov-2 1
May-18

May-19

May-20

May-21

May-22
Jul-17

Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

Jul-22
Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22
Jan -18

Jan -19

Jan -20

Jan -21

Jan -22
Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22
Tighter Global Monetary Policy Response: Countries all over the world follow
suit, which then raises concern over the possibility of recession

Policy Rate Changes

Sep-22 FOMC Projection
in the period of 9M22 (bps)

Japan 0 US Economic Long-

2022 2023 2024 2025
Eurozone 125 Indicator (%) run
UK 200 GDP
Taiwan 37.5 0.2 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.8
Growth
Canada 300
China -15
Jun-22 Projection 1.7 1.7 1.9 1.8
Vietnam 100 Unemployment
3.8 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.0
Malaysia 75 Rate
Thailand 50 Jun-22 Projection 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.0
South Korea 150
Inflation
USA 300 5.4 2.8 2.3 2.0 2.0
Rate
Philippines 175
New Zealand 225 Jun-22 Projection 5.2 2.6 2.2 2.0
Australia 225 Core
4.5 3.1 2.3 2.1
Hong Kong 0 Inflation Rate
Indonesia 75
Jun-22 Projection 4.3 2.7 2.3
India 190
Russia -100 Policy
4.50 4.75 4.00 3.00 2.50
Brazil 450 Rate
-200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 Jun-22 Projection 3.50 4.00 3.50 2.50

11
Impact to Global Economy (1): potentially triggers stagflation, or
recession in some countries (GDP growth, % yoy)

IMF World Bank Bloomberg OECD

Countries / Area 2019 2020 2021
2022F 2023F 2022F 2022F 2023F 2022F 2023F
World 2.9 -3.1 6.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.5 3.0 2.2
US 2.3 -3.4 5.7 1.6 1.0 2.5 1.6 0.9 1.5 0.5
Euro Zone 1.6 -6.1 5.2 3.1 0.5 2.5 2.9 0.3 3.1 1.6
Indonesia 5.0 -2.0 3.7 5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.0 4.8
Japan -0.4 -4.7 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4
China 6.0 2.2 8.1 3.2 4.4 4.3 3.5 5.2 3.2 4.7
India 3.7 -6.5 8.9 6.8 6.1 7.1 8.7 7.2 6.9 5.7
Russia 2.2 -2.7 4.7 -3.4 -2.3 -8.9 -6.0 -3.0 -4.5 -4.5
Brazil 1.2 -3.9 4.8 1.7 1.1 1.5 2.0 0.9 2.5 0.8
ASEAN-5 4.8 -3.4 3.4 5.3 4.9 - - - - -
Source : IMF, Oct-22 World Economic Outlook; World Bank, Jun-22 Global Economic Prospect; OECD Interim Economic Outlook, Sep-22; & Bloomberg as of 23-Sep-22
Indonesia’s 3Q22 economic growth exceeded expectations...
Quarterly GDP Growth (% yoy) Full-year GDP growth (%)

6.17

6.02
7.07

5.56

5.17

5.17
5.07

5.04
5.02

5.02

5.03
5.01

4.88
5.06 5.05 5.01 4.96 5.02 5.02 5.45 5.72

3.69
2.97 3.51

-0.71
-2.19
-3.49

-2.07
-5.32
1Q19

2Q19

3Q19

4Q19

1Q20

2Q20

3Q20

4Q20

1Q21

2Q21

3Q21

4Q21

1Q22

2Q22

3Q22

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022F

2023F

2024F
GDP growth by expenditure
2020 (% yoy) 2021 (% yoy) 2022 (% yoy) Share Share Share
2019 2020 2021 2019 2020 2021
Components
(%) (%) (%) (% of (% of (% of
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
GDP) GDP) GDP)

GDP 2.97 -5.32 -3.49 -2.19 -0.71 7.07 3.51 5.02 5.02 5.45 5.72 5.02 -2.07 3.69 100 100 100
Household spending 2.84 -5.52 -4.05 -3.61 -2.21 5.96 1.02 3.55 4.34 5.51 5.39 5.04 -2.63 2.02 56.6 57.7 54.4
Non-profit Institutions -5.01 -7.82 -1.97 -2.14 -3.99 4.15 2.79 3.29 5.85 5.05 6.09 10.62 -4.25 1.59 1.3 1.3 1.2
Government
3.74 -6.90 9.76 1.76 2.58 8.03 0.62 5.25 -6.94 -4.86 -2.88 3.26 1.96 4.17 8.8 9.3 9.1
expenditure
Investment 1.70 -8.61 -6.48 -6.15 -0.23 7.54 3.76 4.49 4.09 3.07 4.96 4.45 -4.96 3.80 32.4 31.7 30.8
Exports 0.36 -12.02 -11.66 -7.21 7.09 31.98 29.16 29.83 16.70 20.02 21.64 -0.48 -8.14 24.04 18.5 17.2 21.6
Imports -3.62 -18.29 -23.00 -13.52 5.38 31.72 30.11 29.60 15.88 12.37 22.98 -7.13 -16.72 23.31 19.0 16.0 18.9
Source: BPS, Notes: Excluding change in stock & statistic discrepancy
Inflation is still the main concern, but last October’s deflation gave positive
sentiment that inflation could go lower than 6% this year
No Componen Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Weight
BI 7D-RRR and inflation (%, % yoy)
a. Headline inflation 2.18 2.06 2.64 3.47 3.55 4.35 4.94 4.69 100.0
b. Core inflation 1.84 2.03 2.37 2.60 2.58 2.63 2.86 3.04 65.5 8.0
c. Administered price 2.37 2.34 3.06 4.83 4.83 5.33 6.51 6.84 18.1 Inflation (% yoy) 6.28
- Energy price 3.35 1.81 3.25 5.48 6.05 10.07 11.47 8.93 16.5
7.0 BI7DRRR 6.30 6.26
d. Volatile price 0.96 1.22 2.09 4.13 4.18 4.20 5.02 5.84
- Food ingredients FFR
price
3.40 1.99 3.35 5.44 5.93 9.57 10.88 8.55 6.27
6.0
Food, Beverage and
1. Tobacco 3.45 2.51 3.59 5.20 5.62 8.26 9.35 7.73 25.0
4.69
2. Clothing and Footwear 1.85 1.89 2.04 1.83 1.10 1.38 1.54 1.63 5.4
Housing, Water, 5.0 4.75
3. Electricity, and Other 1.24 1.46 1.84 2.05 2.12 2.14 2.57 3.11 20.5
Fuel 3.75 4.50
Household Equipment, 4.25
4.0

%
4. Equipment and Routine 3.31 3.40 3.81 4.23 4.39 4.77 4.91 4.89 6.0 4.00
Maintenance

5. Health 1.73 1.87 2.07 2.19 2.31 2.46 2.30 2.08 2.6 3.50
3.0
6. Transportation 1.91 1.67 2.36 4.84 4.77 5.45 6.65 6.62 12.4 2.50
Information, 3.25
7. Communication, and -0.24 -0.25 -0.22 -0.22 -0.20 -0.23 -0.27 -0.29 5.8 3.00
Financial Service 2.0
3.00
Recreation, Sports, and
8. Culture 1.49 1.78 1.90 1.90 2.08 1.97 2.25 2.53 2.2
1.0
9. Education 1.64 1.72 1.72 1.71 1.71 1.69 1.85 2.50 5.6
Food and Beverage
10. Provision/Restaurant 2.70 2.97 3.13 3.47 3.57 3.67 3.96 4.20 8.7
0.0
Personal Care and

Feb-18

Feb-19

Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22
Aug-18

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22
Oct-18

Oct-19

Oct-20

Oct-21

Oct-22
Dec-18

Dec-19

Dec-20

Dec-21

Dec-22
Apr-18

Apr-19

Apr-20

Apr-21

Apr-22
Jun-18

Jun-19

Jun-20

Jun-21

Jun-22
11. Other Services 2.09 2.85 4.43 4.91 4.63 4.43 4.79 4.93 5.9

Source: BPS, OCE BMRI calculation

The Government is aiming to lower food inflation
Impacts on Real Sector
Key Messages

• The global economy is in the rare combination of slow growth and

high inflation
• It will shift the policy stance from recovery to stability
• The Indonesian economy is relatively shielded yet there will be some impacts

• Recovery takes across all board, but global economic slowdown would have
some impacts on certain sectors

• Consumers have been resilience, yet spending appears to run out of

steam as we enter 2H22
Impact to Indonesia Economy (4): Impacted Sectors

Global Economic
Impact on Indonesia’s Impact on Sectoral
Recession
Economy Domestic Economies
Characteristics
• Export slowing down • Consumer postponing spending
• Low global economic growth

• Commodity sector under pressure • Lower export-oriented manufacturing

• Slower demand from advanced
countries
• Rupiah depreciation • Durable goods manufacturing
• Lower commodity prices declining
• Slightly slower economic growth
• Capital reversal • Export revenue from commodity
• Higher economic uncertainty sector declining

• Lower consumer confidence • Property investment weakening

2H22 2023-2024
Note: Probability of recession in the US in 12-18 months after Jul-2022 is 40-50%, based on Bloomberg Survey
Credit growth opportunities are mainly from resilient/defensive
sectors against global turmoil
§ Global recession will affect some sectors, e.g., export-oriented manufacturing, commodities, and property investment.
§ Sector selection strategy will be crucial for banks: focusing more on sectors that are resilient against global turmoil, e.g.,
telecommunications, healthcare, industrial zones, F&B, and utilities.

Sectors with growth Sector mapping for 1–2 years ahead Affected sectors
opportunities

Long Term Potential Resilient/Defensive Sectors Cost Push Demand Weakening

• Telecommunications • F&B • Cement Commodities

• Healthcare • Utilities • Fertilizer • Coal
• Industrial zones • Government • Construction materials • CPO
• Nickel • Transportation • Rubber
• Pharmacy
• Power generation Exported Manufacturing
• Cattle feed • Furniture
• Plastics • Textiles & footwear
• Petrochemicals • Processed wood

Domestic Market
• Automotive
• Property investment
• Electronics

Source: Bank Mandiri, Office of Chief Economist

Fuel price hike leads to higher transportation costs

Transport equipment, electronics, and machinery & equipment industries are some of the sectors that will suffer the most. This
leads to higher consumer prices or lower margins in wholesale and retail

Heavy impact Light impact

Transport costs >3% of Transport costs 1.5–3% of total output Transport costs <1.5% of
total output total output

• Transport equipment • Rubber, rubber goods, and plastic industries • Forestry and logging industry
industry • Textile and garment industry
• Food and beverage industry • Private information and
• Metal goods, computers, • Industries of wood, wooden & cork goods, and woven goods communications services industries
electronics, optical from bamboo, rattan, and the likes
equipment, and • Chemical, pharmaceutical, and traditional medicine industries • F&B procurement industry
electronic appliances • Coal and oil & gas refinery industries
industries • Livestock farming
• Furniture industry
• Seasonal and annual plantation industries • Leather, leather goods, and
• Machinery and other
• Mining and other quarrying industries footwear industries
miscellaneous equipment
• Non-metal quarrying industries
(YTDL) industries • Fishery industry • Other services*
• Tobacco processing • Other processing and machine & equipment reparation &
industry installation services industries
• Paper and paper goods, printing, and recorded media
• Industries of seasonal reproduction industries
horticulture, annual • Base metal industry
horticulture, and others • Food crop agriculture industry
• Coal and lignite mining industries

Source: Input-Output Table, BPS, processed by Office of Chief Economist, Bank Mandiri
* Other services include real estate, oil & gas mining and geothermal, motor vehicle sales, other commerce, accommodations, utility procurement, construction, power generation, 20
services industries, agriculture services, education services, and govt administration
Impact to Global Economy (1): Global Trade may decline, as demand weakens

80 %
Global Trade Activity (%yoy)

60

48.29

40
29.93

20.80
20

8.98

Apr-22

Jun-22
Dec-21

Feb-22
Oct-21
Aug-21

Aug-22
India China Indonesia Malaysia Thailand US

21
Impact to Indonesia Economy(3): Export to main trading partners have
decline in periods of crisis
USD Million
Indonesia Export to Major Trading Partners
60,000 (%yoy)
China Yuan COVID19
GFC 2008- Japan China US India Malaysia
Devaluation, Pandemic
50,000 2009 Currency War
2008 5.4% 16.9% 10.8% 44.5% 30.3%
2009 -13.2% 14.5% -16.4% 4.1% -5.8%
40,000
2012 -6.0% -3.4% -7.0% -6.3% -7.9%
30,000 2013 -6.7% 2.0% 3.4% 4.5% -14.2%
2014 -9.4% -22.7% 5.1% -6.0% -12.0%
20,000 2015 -10.1% -19.4% -3.5% -5.2% -2.7%
2019 -15.7% 6.0% 0.1% -14.6% -3.1%
10,000
2020 -6.3% 15.8% 5.3% -12.7% -8.9%
- 2021 31.0% 70.7% 38.4% 28.3% 52.6%
2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021
Japan China US India Malaysia
Based on a Negative % of GDP Growth – Almost Certain Recession
7 countries with a negative %GDP Growth in 2023(F) are almost certain to plunge into a recession, some are Indonesian Trade Partners

Indonesia Trade Indonesia Trade

No %GDP Country 2022(F) 2023(F) No Export No Import
Partners Partners
1 Equatorial Guinea 5,83 -3,13 1 China 15.857.198 1 China 16.381.080
2 Sri Lanka -8,69 -3,01 2 USA 6.978.613 2 Singapore 5.262.977
3 Russia -3,41 -2,28 3 India 6.920.026 3 Japan 4.118.704
4 Chile 2,03 -0,95 4 Japan 6.228.177 4 USA 3.214.592
5 Germany 1,55 -0,29 5 Singapore 4.425.530 5 Malaysia 3.081.592
6 Italy 3,18 -0,17 6 Malaysia 4.297.574 6 Korea, Republic of 2.855.410
7 Sweden 2,60 -0,14 7 Philippines 3.337.865 7 Thailand 2.701.518
8 Belarus -7,02 0,22 8 Korea, Republic of 3.011.466 8 India 2.556.120
9 United Kingdom 3,61 0,32 9 Taipei, Chinese 2.437.075 9 Australia 2.389.381
10 Belgium 2,40 0,38 10 Thailand 2.359.603 10 Saudi Arabia 1.514.634
11 Puerto Rico 4,80 0,40 11 Viet Nam 2.326.924 11 Viet Nam 1.153.785
12 Finland 2,14 0,47 12 Netherlands 1.454.275 12 Nigeria 1.126.953
13 Poland 3,83 0,49 13 Pakistan 1.064.223 13 Taipei, Chinese 1.119.854
14 Haiti -1,20 0,50 14 Australia 962.781 14 Germany 882.334
15 Denmark 2,60 0,60 15 Germany 787.336 15 Hong Kong, China 882.024
16 Portugal 6,24 0,65 16 Italy 773.110 16 Brazil 864.488
17 France 2,52 0,66 17 Hong Kong, China 768.806 17 Argentina 845.221
18 San Marino 3,15 0,75 18 Bangladesh 744.391 18
23 Canada 774.439
19 Netherlands 4,55 0,80 19 Türkiye 624.493 19 United Arab Emirates 574.407
20 Switzerland 2,20 0,80 20 Belgium 613.599 20 South Africa 521.899
21 United States 1,64 1,00 21 Spain 538.571 21 Russian Federation 410.384
22 Austria 4,70 1,00 22 Saudi Arabia 512.513 22 New Zealand 366.835
23 Brazil 2,79 1,03 23 United Arab Emirates 503.256 23 Philippines 365.564
24 South Africa 2,10 1,10 24 Brazil 416.865 24 France 359.720
25 Lithuania 1,78 1,11 25 United Kingdom 411.630 25 Italy 358.749

Source : %GDP - IMF from OCE BMRI & Export and Import - Trade M ap Q2 2022 (USD 000) ----- Recession ----- Economic Slowdown
Significant ∆ Decrease of % GDP Growth - Economic Slowdown
Some countries are projected to have a sharp cut in their GDP and technically standing on the brink of recession.
Unfortunately, some of them are Indonesia's trading partners (most of them are Euro countries)
N %GDP 2022 2023 Indonesia Trade Indonesia Trade
∆ 2022-2023 No Export No Import
o Country (F) (F) Partners Partners
1 Portugal 6,24 0,65 -5,59 1 China 15.857.198 1 China 16.381.080
2 Puerto Rico 4,80 0,40 -4,40 2 USA 6.978.613 2 Singapore 5.262.977
3 Netherlands 4,55 0,80 -3,75 3 India 6.920.026 3 Japan 4.118.704
4 Austria 4,70 1,00 -3,70 4 Japan 6.228.177 4 USA 3.214.592
5 Poland 3,83 0,49 -3,34 5 Singapore 4.425.530 5 Malaysia 3.081.592
6 United Kingdom 3,61 0,32 -3,29 6 Malaysia 4.297.574 6 Korea, Republic of 2.855.410
7 Spain 4,33 1,21 -3,12 7 Philippines 3.337.865 7 Thailand 2.701.518
8 San Marino 3,15 0,75 -2,40 8 Korea, Republic of 3.011.466 8 India 2.556.120
9 Belgium 2,40 0,38 -2,02 9 Taipei, Chinese 2.437.075 9 Australia 2.389.381
10 Denmark 2,60 0,60 -2,00 10 Thailand 2.359.603 10 Saudi Arabia 1.514.634
11 France 2,52 0,66 -1,86 11 Viet Nam 2.326.924 11 Viet Nam 1.153.785
12 Canada 3,30 1,45 -1,84 12 Netherlands 1.454.275 12 Nigeria 1.126.953
13 Brazil 2,79 1,03 -1,75 13 Pakistan 1.064.223 13 Taipei, Chinese 1.119.854
14 Finland 2,14 0,47 -1,68 14 Australia 962.781 14 Germany 882.334
15 Switzerland 2,20 0,80 -1,40 15 Germany 787.336 15 Hong Kong, China 882.024
16 South Africa 2,10 1,10 -1,00 16 Italy 773.110 16 Brazil 864.488
17 Mexico 2,14 1,15 -0,99 17 Hong Kong, China 768.806 17 Argentina 845.221
24
18 Lithuania 1,78 1,11 -0,66 18 Bangladesh 744.391 18 Canada 774.439
19 United States 1,64 1,00 -0,65 19 Türkiye 624.493 19 United Arab Emirates 574.407
20 Lesotho 2,13 1,59 -0,54 20 Belgium 613.599 20 South Africa 521.899
21 Luxembourg 1,62 1,12 -0,50 21 Spain 538.571 21 Russian Federation 410.384
22 Czech Republic 1,87 1,50 -0,37 22 Saudi Arabia 512.513 22 New Zealand 366.835
23 Slovak Republic 1,80 1,50 -0,30 23 United Arab Emirates 503.256 23 Philippines 365.564
24 Haiti -1,20 0,50 1,70 24 Brazil 416.865 24 France 359.720
25 Belarus -7,02 0,22 7,24 25 United Kingdom 411.630 25 Italy 358.749

Source : %GDP - IMF from OCE BMRI & Export and Import - Trade M ap Q2 2022 (USD 000) ----- Recession ----- Economic Slowdown
Spending & Consumer
Behavior
Key Messages

• The global economy is in the rare combination of slow growth and

high inflation
• It will shift the policy stance from recovery to stability
• The Indonesian economy is relatively shielded yet there will be some impacts

• Consumers have been resilience, yet spending appears to run out of

steam as we enter 2H22
As mid November, spending level still maintained flat at the pre-
Ramadan level amid rising inflation

Mandiri Spending Index

250 PSBB 1 PSBB 2 PSBB 3/PPKM Mikro PPKM Inflation > 3,5% (yoy)
(10 Apr – 4 Jun) (14 Sep - 11 Okt) (11 Jan – 2 Jul) (3 Jul – ?)
Delta Omicron
225 (17 Jan – 16 Feb) Fuel price
(1 Jun – 15 Jul)
hiked
Ramadan Ramadan Ramadan
200 2020 2021 2022
185.0

175
161.1 159.9
160.7
150 143.3
137.5

125.0 129.1
125 121.8
113.8
-20%
100
94.2

75
67.8 -40% 73.3

50 58.0

25
20

-M 2

2
1
-M 1

1
0

0
0

0
0

2
2

2
2

2
1

1
1
1

1
1
1
20

0
0
0

2
2
2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2
-2
-2
n-

ay
ar
an

ov
ep
un

ct
ul
eb

ug
pr

ec

ar

ay
ar

an

ov
ct
ay

ep
eb

pr

ec
ov

un
ct

ul
ep
eb

ug
ec
un

ul

ug
pr
a

-O
-J

-O
-D
-O

-M
-A

-J
-N
-J

-S

-D
-F
-M

-A

-A
-J
-D

-M
-J

-F
-M
-A

-N
-S
-F

-N

-A
-J
-S
-A
-J

-J
-J

26

26
26

26
26

26
26

26

26

26
26

26
26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

Value Frequency

Source Big data Bank Mandiri

Spending level in 2022 is higher than 2021, yet the overall trend tends to slow down

§ While the solid recovery took place in 1H22, the trend of 3Q22
has been in the opposite of 3Q21. However, deflation in October is likely to
drive spending in October higher than
§ Hence, it is likely that 4Q22 will have limited growth, not as
September. Even so, spending in November
strong as in previous years.
potentially to be lower than October.
MSI MSI vs Inflation

200 200 8

180
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 180
2020 2021 2022
7

160

140
? 160

140
6

5
120
120

100 4
100

80
80 3

60
60 Sep 2020 2
Second mobility restriction 40
40 in greater Jakarta
1
20
20
0 0
0 J M M J S N J M M J S N J M M J S N*
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov* Dec 2020 2021 2022

2020 2021 2022 MSI Inflation (RHS, yoy)

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri. *Nov 2022 is an estimation.

On the weekly basis, spending is still hovering at the
level when fuel prices were hiked

Changes in the spending per consumer index, relative to the week of 3 Sep 2022 (points)
10
Period when the signal for
fuel price hike was socialized
8
intensively by the government

6 3 Sep 2022

~4 points
2 +1.8
0 +0.2
2

10
W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 Fuel W+1 W+2 W+3 W+4 W+5 W+6 W+7 W+8 W+9 W+10 W+11 W+12 W+13 W+14 W+15 W+16 W+17
pric e
hiked

Value Frequency

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

Spending in all regions have a slight pick-up, except for Bali & Nusra
which continues to slow down after a long rally

MSI (value), by regions

PSBB 1 PSBB 2 PSBB 3 (PPKM Mikro) PPKM Darurat/Level

240 Fuel price
hiked
220 (3 Sep)
Ramadan Ramadan Delta Omicron Ramadan
2020 2021 2022
200

180

160
156.2

140
131.9
130.4
126.0
120 125.8

100 99.7

68.2
80 63.0 20 Mar 2022
56.5 9 Jan 2022
10 Jan 2021
60

40 MotoGP race

Mobility
20 restriction easing

0
-M 1

1
20

-M 2

2
1

1
1

1
1

1
0

0
0

0
0

2
2

2
2
20

2
2
1

1
1
1
0
0

2
-2

-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
n-

ar

ay
an

ov
ct
ep
eb

pr

ec
un

ul

ug

ar
an

ov
ay

ep
ar

ov

ct
ay

eb

ug
pr

ec
un
ct

ul
ep
eb

ug
pr

ec
un

ul
a

-O
-J

-D

-O
-A
-O

-M

-J
-F

-N
-J

-S

-D
-M

-A

-A
-J
-D

-M
-A

-N
-J

-S
-F
-M

-N

-A
-J
-F

-A
-J

-S

-J
-J

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26
26

26
26

Sumatra Jawa Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali & Nusra Maluku & Papua

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

Weekly basis: Three spending trends emerged after 4 weeks of withhold spending

Change of MSI (value), relative to the week of fuel price hiked (points)
15

Period when the signal for 4 weeks of withhold

fuel price hike was socialized spending post fuel
10 intensively by the government price hiked
+7.4
Increased in Sulawesi, Maluku & Papua,
3 Sep 2022
+7.2 Kalimantan
+6.2
5

+1.4 Sideways in Sumatra and Java

+1.0
0

x
5

10
Bali & Nusra was
decelerated since early
October -12.6 Slowing in Bali & Nusra
15
W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 Fuel W+1 W+2 W+3 W+4 W+5 W+6 W+7 W+8 W+9 W+10 W+11 W+12 W+13 W+14 W+15 W+16 W+17
pric e
hiked
Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Sumatra Jawa Kalimantan Sulawesi Bali & Nusra Maluku & Papua

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

Commodity-based regions: Higher inflation has depressed spending
for both regions, however Kalimantan is more resilient than Sumatra

Spending volume vs inflation Spending volume vs inflation

8.00 8.00
190
SUMATRA 7.0 0
190
KALIMANTAN 7.0 0
170
6.39 6.00
170
6.31 6.00

150 Steeper 150

5.00 5.00
declining than
130 130
Kalimantan 4.00 4.00

110 110
114.7
101.6 3.00 3.00

90 2.00 90 2.00

70 1.00 70 1.00
Fuel price hiked Fuel price hiked
50 0.00 50 0.00
Jun

Jun

Jun

Jun
Oct

Oct

Oct

Oct
Feb

May

Nov

Feb

May

Nov

Feb

May

Nov

Feb

May

Nov
Mar

Mar

Mar

Mar
Jul

Jul

Jul

Jul
Dec

Dec

Dec

Dec
Apr

Apr

Apr

Apr
Aug

Aug

Aug

Aug
Jan

Jan

Jan

Jan
Sep

Sep

Sep

Sep
2021 2022 2021 2022

Spending volume index Inflation (%, yoy, RHS) Spending volume index Inflation (%, yoy, RHS)

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri, Index for Jan 2021 = 100
 Contribution to national CPO
190
SUMATRA
Commodity-based export (%), 2021
170
Fuel price hiked
regions: 150

Apart from inflation, 130

weakening spending in 19

Sumatra may also be

74 110
101.6
90
driven by declining CPO 7 83.8
70
prices..
50

Feb

Nov

Feb

Nov
Jul

Jul
Jun

Jun
Oct

Oct
May

May
Mar

Mar
Dec

Dec
Jan

Jan
Apr

Apr
Aug
Sep

Aug
Sep
.. Meanwhile, along with 2021 2022

coal prices increase, Sumatra Kalimantan Others Spending volume index CPO price index

spending in Kalimantan Contribution to national KALIMANTAN 600

is relatively more stable coal export (%), 2021

190 Fuel price hiked
500
170

150
413.3 400

0 130

114.7
300

89 11 110
200
90

100
70

50 0

Jun

Jun
Oct

Oct
Feb

May

Nov

Feb

May

Nov
Mar

Mar
Jul

Jul
Dec

Dec
Jan

Jan
Apr

Apr
Aug

Aug
Sep

Sep
2021 2022

Sumatra Kalimantan Others Spending volume index Coal price index (RHS)
Source: Big data Bank Mandiri, Bloomberg, Office of Chief Economist. Index for Jan 2021 = 100
In Retail category, spending on Restaurants and Supermarkets remained stable,
showing no increase yet, while Retail and the Department Stores slowly increased

MSI for Mobility (value)

400
Fuel price hiked
Ramadan
2022 (3 Sep)
350

Ramadan Ramadan
300 2020 2021

272.2

250

200

157.5
150 150.4

115.9
100

50

0
1
-M 1

1
0
20

2
-M 2

2
2
1
1

1
1
0
0

0
0

2
2
1

1
1
20

0
0
0

2
2
2
1

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2
n-

ar
an

ov
ay

ep

ct
ul
eb

ug
pr

ec
un

ay
ar
an

ov
ay

ep
ar

ec
ov

un

ct
ul
ep

eb

ug
pr
ct
ul
eb

ug
pr

ec
un
a

-O
-J

-D

-O
-A

-J
-O

-M

-N
-J

-S

-D
-F

-A
-J
-M

-M
-A
-D
-M
-A

-N
-J

-S
-F
-N

-A
-J
-S
-F

-A
-J

-J
-J

26

26
26

26
26

26
26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26
26

26
26

Restaurants Supermarkets Department Stores Retail

Sumber: Big data Bank Mandiri

 26
-J
a

300

100
500

0
600

400

200
n-
20
26
-F
eb
26 - 20
-M
ar
-2
26 0
-A
pr
-2

Sumber: Big data Bank Mandiri

26 0
-M
MSI for Mobility (value)

ay

2020
-2
26 0

Ramadan
-J
un
-2
26 0
-J
ul
-2
26 0
-A
ug
-2
26 0
-S
ep
-2
26 0
-O
ct
-2
26 0
-N
ov
-2
26 0
-D
ec
-2
26 0

Gasolines
-J
an
-2
26 1
-F
eb
26 -2
-M 1
ar
-2
26 1
-A
pr
-2
26 1
-M
2021

ay
-2
1
Ramadan

26
-J
un

Transportations
-2
26 1
-J
ul
-2
26 1
-A
ug
-2
26 1
-S
ep
to flight and hotel bookings for year-end activities

-2

Travel
26 1
-O
ct
-2
26 1
-N
ov
-2
26 1
-D
ec
-2
26 1
-J
Airlines

an
-2
26 2
-F
eb
26 -2
-M 2
ar
-2
26 2
The increase in Mobility, as its seasonal patterns, may be related

-A
Hotel

pr
-2
26 2
2022

-M
Ramadan

ay
-2
26 2
-J
un
-2
26 2
-J
ul
-2
26 2
-A
ug
-2
26 2
-S
ep
(3 Sep)

-2
26 2
-O
ct
Fuel price hiked

-2
26 2
-N
ov
-2
26 2
-D
ec
80.7
83.2
141.3

-2
394.9

2
389.9
Among top 5 spending, Restaurants and Supermarkets have been
relatively stable, Household and Fashion have a slight pick-up since
end of October, while Medical tends to slow down

MSI (value) for top 5 share of spending

350 PSBB 1 PSBB 2 PSBB 3 (PPKM Mikro) PPKM Darurat/Level
Fuel price hike
325 (3 Sep)
Ramadan Ramadan Delta Omicron Ramadan
300
2020 2021 2022
275

250

225

200

175
157.5
150 150.4
142.9
125
117.6
111.1
100

75

50

25

-M 2
1
-M 1

1
0

0
20

0
0

2
2

2
2

2
1
1

1
1
0

1
1
20

0
0
0

2
2
2
1

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2
-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2
-2

-2
-2
n-

ar
an

ov
ay

ep

ct
ul
eb

ug
pr

ec

ar
un

ay
an

ov
ct
ay

ep
eb
ar

ec
ov

un
ct

ul
ep

ug
pr
ec
un

ul
eb

ug
pr
a

-O
-J

-O
-D
-O

-A

-J
-M

-N
-J

-S

-D
-F

-A
-J
-D
-M

-M
-A
-F
-M
-A

-N
-J

-S
-N

-A
-J
-S
-F

-A
-J

-J
-J

26

26
26

26
26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26
26
26

26
26

Medical Supermarkets Restaurants Household Fashion

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

Consumers are more defensive: Non-durable and durable gap
has widened in recent months
MSI (value) based on durable, non-durable, and service categories Fuel price hiked
(3 Sep)
225
PSBB 1 PSBB 2 Higher mobility
was not followed
200 by demand
Higher mobility was Higher mobility increased
Ramadan Ramadan Delta was followed by
Omicron Ramadan
followed by demand
2020 increased (pent-up 2021 demand increased 2022
175 demand) (pent-up demand) Gap
61,3
Durable >
Non-durable 155.9
150 152.8
Gap Gap
34,4 37,1
Gap
125
17,7 123.4

100 Gap
7,8
Gap Gap
47,0 32,6 Higher inflation period
75 Higher gap in the last ~5.5 months

50
Prapandemi
Gap average -0.3

25

0
20

-M 2

2
1

1
-M 1

1
1
0

0
0

0
0

2
2

2
2
1
1

1
1
1
20

0
0
0

2
2
2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2
-2
-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2
-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2
-2

-2

-2

-2
-2
-2
-2
n-

ay
ar
an

ov
ct
ep

ec
un

ul
eb

ug
pr

ar

ov
ay
ar

an

ct
ay

ep
eb

pr

ec
ov

un
ct

ul
ep
eb

ug
ec
un

ul

ug
pr
a

-O
-J

-D

-O
-O

-M
-A

-J
-N
-J

-S

-D
-F
-M

-A

-A
-J
-D

-M

-N
-J

-F
-M
-A

-S
-F

-N

-A
-J
-S
-A
-J

-J
-J

26

26

26
26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26

26

26

26

26

26
26

26
26

26

26
26

Durable Non-durable Service Gap*

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri. SKB = Sub Kelompok Belanja. *Gap = MSI Non-durable – MSI Durable. Durable : Household, Electronics, Handphone, Jewelry. Non-durable : Restaurants, Supermarkets.
Service : Travel, Airlines, Transportations, Hotel, Medical, Entertainment, Sports, Utilities
Amid 3Q22, the slowing mostly driven by declining in the top 3 spending

Share of spending for Restaurant, Supermarket, and Household ranges from 40 - 45%

Nonetheless, entering 4Q22 (October), spending improved slightly, especially Restaurants and Supermarkets

RESTAURANT SUPERMARKET HOUSEHOLD RELATED

MSI (Value) MSI (Value) MSI (Value)
200
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 300
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 200
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
180 180
250
160 160

140 140
200
120 120

100 150 100

80 80
100
60 60

40 40
50
20 20

0 0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

Different to last year, spending on Travel and Hotel tended to be stagnant since
mid-3Q22, while Entertainment has continued to decline

§ Unlike Travel, which was still higher than last year, spending on Hotel until mid 4Q22 was lower than 4Q21.
§ Higher travel spending is likely to be affected by rising prices.

TRAVEL RELATED** HOTEL ENTERTAINMENT

MSI (Value) MSI (Value) MSI (Value)
300 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 200 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 115
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
180
250 110
160

140
200 105
120

150 100 100

80
100 95
60

40
50 90
20

0 0 85
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov* Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov* Dec

2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022 2020 2021 2022

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri. *Estimation. **Include Travel and Airlines.
Compositional shifting in spending from household related to
Supermarket, suggesting defensive spending

Share of spending, sorted by November 2022

Ramada Delta Ramadan Higher inflation, fuel price hiked
Gradual restriction easing Omicron
n 2021 2022

The share of
Handphone
increased
significantly
(5.6%), the highest
since December
2021. It is likely
related to the
launch of the latest
Handphone
models (iphone 14,
etc). Likewise with
Electronics and
Retail.

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri

 100

80
80

60
40
40
60

20
20
120
26-Jan-20
26-F eb-20
26-Mar-20
26-Apr-20
26-May-20
26-Jun-20
26-Jul-20
26-Aug-20
26-Sep-20
26-O ct-20
26-Nov-20

MSI Bali & Nusra

26-D ec-20
26-Jan-21
26-F eb-21
26-Mar-21
26-Apr-21
26-May-21
26-Jun-21
26-Jul-21

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri, Google Mobility Index (up to 15 Oct 2022)
MSI in Bali & Nusra and mobility in transit stations

26-Aug-21
26-Sep-21
26-O ct-21
26-Nov-21
26-D ec-21
26-Jan-22
26-F eb-22
26-Mar-22
race day
MotoGP

W-5 to W0

26-Apr-22
Official test to

26-May-22
26-Jun-22
26-Jul-22
26-Aug-22
26-Sep-22
End of July

Google Mobility Index : Transit Stations

26-O ct-22
G20

26-Nov-22
W-5 to W0

26-D ec-22
100

80
80

60
40
40
60

20
20
120

26-Jan-20
26-F eb-20
26-Mar-20
26-Apr-20
26-May-20
26-Jun-20
26-Jul-20
26-Aug-20
26-Sep-20
26-O ct-20
26-Nov-20
26-D ec-20
26-Jan-21
26-F eb-21
26-Mar-21
MSI in Bali & Nusra and mobility in parks

26-Apr-21
26-May-21
26-Jun-21
Events allowing people to travel across Bali & NTB tend to drive up spending

26-Jul-21
Google Mobility Index : Parks

26-Aug-21
26-Sep-21
26-O ct-21
26-Nov-21
26-D ec-21
26-Jan-22
26-F eb-22
26-Mar-22
race day
MotoGP

W-5 to W0

26-Apr-22
Official test to

26-May-22
26-Jun-22
26-Jul-22
MSI Bali & Nusra

26-Aug-22
End of July

26-Sep-22
26-O ct-22
G20

26-Nov-22
W-5 to W0

26-D ec-22
 There are differences in
Spending track (MSI) in Bali & Nusra
during MotoGP and G20 events spending patterns between
120 the MotoGP and G20
Week of event
events
110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40
W-5 W-4 W-3 W-2 W-1 W0 W+1 W+2

MotoGP G20

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri, Liputan6.com, CNBC Indonesia

Tourism related items: Spending on Hotels, Restaurants,
and Gasolines always grow higher than other regions
However, its 4Q22 spending growth fell deeper than other regions

MSI growth (%, yoy) : Hotel MSI growth (%, yoy) : Entertainment MSI growth (%, yoy) : Restaurants
225 400 80

175
300 60

125
200 40
75

100 20
25
13 12
33 9
25 -6 0 25 0
I II III IV* I II III IV* I II III IV*
2022 2022 2022

Tourism Others Tourism Others Tourism Others

MSI growth (%, yoy) : Travel + Airlines MSI growth (%, yoy) : Gasolines
1200 250

100 0 200

800
150
600
100
400 79
336 50 73
200

0
81 0
I II III IV* I II III IV*
2022 2022

Tourism Others Tourism Others

Source: Big data Bank Mandiri. *Growth in period of Oct - 13 Nov 2022 vs Oct - 13 Nov 2021.
Thank you