2)

Simulação do reservatório

mês Qa (m3/s) Vi (hm3) Qa.Δt (hm3) D.Δt (hm3) Vi+1 (hm3) Qe.Δt (hm3) Vmorto = 0,1*Vac
1 0,5 18,85032 1,296 2,33928 17,80704 0 Nesse exemplo: 1,885032
2 0,75 17,80704 1,944 2,33928 17,41176 0
3 1,25 17,41176 3,24 2,33928 18,31248 0
4 1,5 18,31248 3,888 2,33928 19,8612 1,01088
5 1,5 18,85032 3,888 2,33928 20,39904 1,54872
6 1,75 18,85032 4,536 2,33928 21,04704 2,19672
7 1 18,85032 2,592 2,33928 19,10304 0,25272
8 0,75 18,85032 1,944 2,33928 18,45504 0
9 0,75 18,45504 1,944 2,33928 18,05976 0
10 0,5 18,05976 1,296 2,33928 17,01648 0
11 0,5 17,01648 1,296 2,33928 15,9732 0
12 0,5 15,9732 1,296 2,33928 14,92992 0
13 0,75 14,92992 1,944 2,33928 14,53464 0
14 0,75 14,53464 1,944 2,33928 14,13936 0
15 1,25 14,13936 3,24 2,33928 15,04008 0
16 1,5 15,04008 3,888 2,33928 16,5888 0
17 2,5 16,5888 6,48 2,33928 20,72952 1,8792
18 2,5 18,85032 6,48 2,33928 22,99104 4,14072
19 1,75 18,85032 4,536 2,33928 21,04704 2,19672
20 1,5 18,85032 3,888 2,33928 20,39904 1,54872
21 1 18,85032 2,592 2,33928 19,10304 0,25272
22 0,5 18,85032 1,296 2,33928 17,80704 0
23 0,5 17,80704 1,296 2,33928 16,76376 0
24 0,5 16,76376 1,296 2,33928 15,72048 0
25 0,5 15,72048 1,296 2,33928 14,6772 0
26 0,75 14,6772 1,944 2,33928 14,28192 0
27 0,5 14,28192 1,296 2,33928 13,23864 0
28 1 13,23864 2,592 2,33928 13,49136 0
29 0,5 13,49136 1,296 2,33928 12,44808 0
30 0,5 12,44808 1,296 2,33928 11,4048 0
31 0,25 11,4048 0,648 2,33928 9,71352 0
32 0,25 9,71352 0,648 2,33928 8,02224 0
 33 0,25 8,02224 0,648 2,33928 6,33096 0
34 0,25 6,33096 0,648 2,33928 4,63968 0
35 0,15 4,63968 0,3888 2,33928 2,6892 0
36 0,25 2,6892 0,648 1,452168 1,885032 0 1a falha V < 1,885032
37 0,75 1,885032 1,944 1,944 1,885032 0 2a falha V < 1,885033
38 0,75 1,885032 1,944 1,944 1,885032 0 3a falha V < 1,885034
39 1,25 1,885032 3,24 2,33928 2,785752 0
40 1,75 2,785752 4,536 2,33928 4,982472 0
41 1,75 4,982472 4,536 2,33928 7,179192 0
42 1,5 7,179192 3,888 2,33928 8,727912 0
43 0,75 8,727912 1,944 2,33928 8,332632 0
44 0,5 8,332632 1,296 2,33928 7,289352 0
45 0,5 7,289352 1,296 2,33928 6,246072 0
46 0,75 6,246072 1,944 2,33928 5,850792 0
47 0,5 5,850792 1,296 2,33928 4,807512 0
48 0,25 4,807512 0,648 2,33928 3,116232 0
49 0,5 3,116232 1,296 2,33928 2,072952 0
50 0,75 2,072952 1,944 2,13192 1,885032 0 4a falha V < 1,885034
51 1 1,885032 2,592 2,33928 2,137752 0
52 1 2,137752 2,592 2,33928 2,390472 0
53 1,5 2,390472 3,888 2,33928 3,939192 0
54 2,5 3,939192 6,48 2,33928 8,079912 0
55 1,5 8,079912 3,888 2,33928 9,628632 0
56 1,25 9,628632 3,24 2,33928 10,529352 0
57 0,75 10,52935 1,944 2,33928 10,134072 0
58 0,5 10,13407 1,296 2,33928 9,090792 0
59 0,25 9,090792 0,648 2,33928 7,399512 0
60 0,25 7,399512 0,648 2,33928 5,708232 0

Probabilidade de falha: 6,7%

Probabilidade de sangria: 15,0%

2 - As probabilidades de falha no atendimento da demanda e de sangria, são de respectivamente 6,7% e 15,0%.