1078122, 7:09AM —_—_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET Advertiseme IET Intelligent Transport Systems / Volume 14, Issue 8 / p. 857-865 Special Section: Sustainably Intelligent Mobility (SIM) @lFree Access Modelling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data Wei Hou, Nengchao Lyui&, Zhaoxin Liu, Xu Wang First published: 30 June 2020 https://doi.org/10.1049/iet-its.2019.0563 Abstract Operating speed is a basic measure for studying the safety of freeways. However, whether the designed speed matches the actual operating speed of large vehicles is worth studying. As such, this study included a large number of aggregated vehicle global positioning system (GPS) datasets used to analyse the actual speed of large vehicles under different alignment conditions on the freeway; and supplement the theoretical operating speed model. Using the traditional operating speed prediction model, the theoretical speed of each section was calculated. Two months of vehicle GPS data from freeways was extracted from a vehicle monitoring platform, the actual operating speed of each section was obtained. The similarities and differences between the theoretical operating speed and the actual vehicle speed on the horizontal and vertical curves were analysed and compared. The results indicate that the hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 1311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET actual speed of large vehicles was obviously higher than the theoretical speed operating downhill. When the vehicle was operating uphill, the vehicle's actual speed was significantly lower than that of the theoretical speed. The actual vehicle operating speed data can be used as a new method for evaluating the safety of large vehicles on the freeway. 1 Introduction Effective road management requires systematic evaluations of traffic safety. In response, researchers have developed scientific frameworks that accurately evaluate road traffic safety and formulate strategic safety measures to support management and reduce crash rates. Among these frameworks, there are methods based on operating speed, which include the theoretical operating speed model [1], spatial sight of the speed model [2], vehicle dynamics simulation of the operating speed model [3] and more. However, most of the above-mentioned methods are based on the theoretical model. At present, the road safety assessment methods that are commonly used in China are mainly recommended by the Ministry of Transportation: ‘Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway’ and ‘Specifications for Highway Safety Audit’ JTG BO5-2015 [4, 5]. Internationally, the model most wildly used is the interactive highway safety design model (IHSDM), which was developed in the United States [6]. After testing, it has been found that results from the two methods are satisfactory and widely used. 1.1 Evaluation of road safety based on operating speed Significant research has been conducted on road traffic safety. Analysis methods include the probability-based statistics method, intensity analysis method, comprehensive evaluation method, and more. These are based on mathematical models from statistics. The intensity analysis method is more reliable and scientifically sound than the probability mathematical statistics method because it comprehensively analyses the factors affecting road traffic safety. In the process of using the comprehensive evaluation method, hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 21311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET there is a hierarchical analysis method [7], gray theory [8, 9], fuzzy synthesis [10, 11], and a method of merging multiple theories [12] with better results. However, the comprehensive evaluation method is more random and ambiguous. This is due to the deviation in the numerical classification of the indicators caused by differences in the knowledge and experience of scientists in the evaluation of road traffic safety. There may be a significant difference in scientific opinion regarding numerical classifications. Additionally, the indicated value is interfered with by man-made or other external measurement issues, resulting in the situation that the value in the critical area meets the requirement of being divided into two different levels [13]. The relatively new methods of analysis and evaluation include principal component analysis [14] and neural networks [15]. The concept of the operating speed clearly stipulates that an abrupt line-shaped change of road position is required to check the operating speed to ensure that the vehicle speed satisfies the coordination requirement [16]. The ‘Guidelines for Safety Audit of Highway’ stipulate that road alignment indicators should be analysed based on vehicle speed to evaluate road safety [4]. Studies have shown that the greater the difference in operating speed between adjacent road units, the less coordination of the road section and the poorer the safety of the vehicle when it is operating [17-19]. After its own investigation, the Australian Road Transport Bureau also reiterates that when the operating speed increases, the risk factor of traffic accidents increases [20]. At the application level, speed characteristic analysis methods have been applied in safety evaluation. Yu et al. [21] proposed a unit-based map matching technology to correlate vehicle global positioning system (GPS) trajectories with road geometry. In this way, a network-wide velocity matrix was generated, which can be used to identify traffic situation; Chen et al. [22] researched on the longitudinal movement of vehicles, using GPS data collected from taxis. The graphical method can describe the characteristics of the driver's longitudinal acceleration hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 3311078122,7:09 AM —_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET behaviour and distinguish the differences between drivers. This method can be used for driving safety analysis. For a proposed new highway, the model presented herein can be used to predict the vehicle speed, and for active roads, the model presented herein can obtain the speed directly from the roadway. In fact, there exists a close relationship between the operating speed and the linear continuity of the road. Leisch and Leisch [23] proposed the use of operating speed to evaluate the consistency of the longitudinal profile of the road and the geometry of the plane. Lamm and Choueiri [24] believe that road safety assessment needs to be considered in terms of speed coordination, and the evaluation index is consistent with the specifications. However, the amount of data used in these studies is relatively small. 1.2 Operating speed distribution and factors analysis Speed distribution characteristics are significant to speed limit management, traffic flow theory, and road network planning and design [25, 26]. The actual operating speed is affected in many ways. Highway capacity manual found that the speed of vehicles on urban roads is affected by factors such as traffic control, vehicle-to-vehicle interaction, and road environment. The operating speed reflects the adaptability of the vehicle to the actual road. The speed distribution can be described by three observations [27]: the shape of the distribution, the degree of concentration of the distribution, and the degree of dispersion of the distribution. Based on this research, Helbing [28] established a relationship model between average vehicle speed, vehicle speed variance, and density. Shankar and Mannering [25] established that the discreteness of vehicle speed calculated by a discrete vehicle speed model can be affected by adjacent lane speeds and exogenously related to associated environmental, traffic flow, and temporal factors [29]. Hong and Oguchi [30] and Shu et a/. [31] found that road characteristics, including alignment, number of lanes, slope, and hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 4311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET length, significantly impact operating speed. For free-flow speed, Zhu et al. [82] found that the influencing factors mainly include: (i) traffic conditions, such as traffic management, flow direction distribution, and vehicle composition; (ii) road conditions, such as the nature of the road, lane width, and surface roughness; and (iii) environmental conditions, such as inclement weather. During a storm, e.g. rainfall can impact vehicle speed in many ways, including wet slippage reducing surface friction and increasing accident probability or heavy downpour narrowing the scope of vision and reducing visibility. Generally, these inclement weather conditions cause drivers to change their behaviour and reduce their speed, which adversely affects traffic flow capacity and travel efficiency [33, 34]. In particular, the operating speed of large vehicles is greatly affected by the longitudinal curve. In this study, road conditions are analysed. Wang et al. [35] introduced a new method to estimate the speed change. This method uses the high-frequency GPS data of a taxi to integrate the spatio-temporal speed fluctuations of a single vehicle and the speed difference between the vehicles. By analysing the data collected from a total of 234 one-way sections, the research results show that the average speed increased by 1%, the total collision increased by 0.7%, and greater speed changes are also related to increasing the collision frequency. Dai et al. [36] proposed a method to analyse the speed characteristics of different road units by using actual GPS data of operational vehicles. This study analysed the similarities and differences between the theoretical driving speed and actual vehicle speed on the typical curve. However, in previous research and applications, the data came mainly from a typical section [37] and bore some deficiencies in both spatial and temporal resolutions. When the vehicle speed analysis is performed based on the predicted operating speed derived from the prescribed speed limit, hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 511078122,7:09 AM —_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET there is a gap between the actual speed and the predicted speed because the vehicle is operating on a complex road environment. Therefore, the results calculated using the operating speed prediction model do not fully reflect the changes in the speed of the vehicle during operation. Especially in the actual operation of large-scale vehicles, due to the difference in load and dynamics, the operating speed may be significantly different from the theoretical limit. Therefore, using actual operating data to develop a prediction model for the operating speed of large vehicles is of practical significance to road traffic safety. 1.3 Research objective Owing to the difference in the dynamic performance, braking performance, and loading characteristics of large vehicles, operating speed is greatly influenced by the alignment of the road. To improve the accuracy of the speed forecasting model for traffic safety evaluations and to help operating speed evaluations render results that better resemble real-world roadways, this study analyses the speed characteristics of various large vehicles using GPS data and proposes a new method for road safety evaluation based on the actual operating speed of vehicles rather than the theoretical speed. The similarities and differences between the theoretical operating speed Vgs and the actual vehicle speed Vg,. of large vehicles on horizontal and vertical curves were analysed, and the causes of these differences are discussed herein. Additionally, the influence of the radius of the horizontal curve and the gradient of the longitudinal slope on the actual speed of a large vehicle was also analysed, and the variation of the actual speed of different road types was obtained. The new method presented in this study corrects and supplements the prediction model of the operating speed of large vehicles in the Guidelines for the Safety Evaluation of Highway Projects and also provides a new method for evaluating the safety of freeways using operating speed characteristics. hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 611078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET 2 Method and data preparation In both road design and safety evaluations, the vehicle speed is used as the most basic measure of traffic safety. Therefore, the closest and most direct parameter to road safety is speed. However, for any given road, there are at least two speed considerations: (i) the theoretical driving speed calculated (or predicted) according to the road alignment; and (ii) the operating speed actually conducted and observed on the roadway. The vehicle speed studied also includes two definitions: (i) the theoretical operating speed Vgs calculated by the model; and (ii) the actual operating speed V,,, observed by collecting a large number of GPS datasets. 2.1 Segmentation and speed prediction model (i) Road segmentation : According to the IHSDM model, the operating speed Ves refers to the safe speed that can be maintained by mid-level drivers according to actual road, traffic, and weather conditions. Owing to their stature and lightweight, small cars can maintain higher speeds on highways. Large cars, due to their bigger size and heavier weight, have inferior performance to small cars in terms of power and handling. The overall control-ability of large vehicles is poor when the vehicle turns and goes downhill Therefore, to ensure safe driving, large vehicles operate at a lower speed In this study, a 90 km stretch of mountain freeway with alignment variations was selected as the test roadway, on which both the horizontal curve radius and longitudinal gradient change over a large range. According to the various radii and slopes, the freeway was divided into a straight line, horizontal curve, longitudinal slope, and curved slope section. The segmentation method and criteria are shown in Table 1. The speed was calculated based on the longitudinal driving direction of the vehicle. Uphill was considered positive, while downhill was considered negative. In accordance with the above principle, the freeway was divided into 141 sections. Since in this study, the actual operating speed of the vehicle was obtained based on GPS, and in the tunnel section, the GPS signal strength was poor, data became unavailable. Therefore, in the theoretical speed calculation portion, the operating speed in the tunnel section was not captured nor studied. In addition, the vehicle speed characteristics were more complex due to interference in the vicinity of the interchange. Therefore, the impact of the interchange was disregarded in this study. Removing the tunnel and interchange sections, 92 valid sections were obtained for analysis. hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 71311078122,7:09 AM —_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET Firstly, the operating speed calculation method was used to determine the initial operating speed Vo from the first analysis unit of the road section, and then the operating speed Vgs was calculated at the end of the first analysis unit according to the driving direction and the corresponding operating speed prediction model of the analysis unit. This was used as the initial operating speed of the second analysis unit, and then the operating speed of the end of the unit was calculated by substituting the calculation formula corresponding to the second analysis unit. This method was successively implemented until the last analysis unit was calculated. The subject of this study was a large vehicle, and according to the related specification, the initial operating speed Vo was 75 km/h. (ii) Typical road speed prediction model : In accordance with the ‘Specifications for Highway Safety Audit’ [5], the operating speed operation model of a typical road type was established, The road on the straight section was calculated using the method described in ‘Specifications for Highway Safety Audit’ [5]. Table 1. Road segment division criteria Vehicle type Vertical Horizontal section Horizontal curve radius Horizontal curve > 1000 m radius $ 1000 m passenger vehicles or slope<3% tength > 200 m, straight length = horizontal curve large vehicles 200 m, short straight slope23% longitudinal slope curved-slope On the horizontal curve segment, because the segmentation was divided based on the track, it was partitioned into four sections, and the calculation of the operating speed at the midpoint of the curve and the exit of the curve was calculated and predicted according to the formula in ‘Specifications for Highway Safety Audit’ [5]. The model of the operating speed at the end point on the longitudinal slope section was selected from the ‘Specifications for Highway Safety Audit’ [5]. hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 at1078122,7:09 AM —_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET Based on the highway alignment data provided by the highway survey and design company, a full-length chart and a vertical table with a total length of 90.869 km were obtained. After dividing the entire road by the road unit division method, there were 92 valid road sections, which included 66 straight sections, nine curve sections, 11 vertical sections, and six curved slope sections. According to the above-mentioned operating speed calculation model, the operating speed of the entire highway was calculated and is listed in Table 2. Table 2. Partial results of road segmentation and predicted driving speed Number Start End Type | Length, | Radius, | Slope, Ves, stakes | stakes m m % km/h 15 uKio+ UkiT+ straight 795 1500 -0851 75 835,000 630,000 16 uKit + uKi2+ straight 8s 1400 203 reat 630.000 214827 7 uKi2+ uKi2+ curved 281 1000 2.08 sas 214827 495.928 slope 18 uKi2+ uKi2+ curve 231 ° 09 mas 495929 m71076 19 uKi2+ uKI3+ straight 688 ° 09 75 m976 465,000 20 uK13+ uki4s straight 720 2500 193 7s 465,000 185,000 2.2 GPS data pre-processing and actual speed calculation hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 9311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET (i) Operating GPS data collection method : The GPS data obtained in this study came from the desensitisation data of an operating vehicle monitoring company, which is a domestic company that specialises in large car networking. It has more than 10,000 freight vehicles that operate throughout the country. The data from this study was obtained through the vehicle-mounted truck information service platform device. The data collected by the operating vehicle monitoring platform is stored in a local SQL server database. This study required the screening and extraction of data distributed only on the 90 km target highway. Owing to the vastness of China's region and a large amount of data, it was first required to write a filter statement on the vehicle data in the SQL server database to extract vehicle data points from the target area. (ii) Data screening : Owing to a large amount of original data, the average daily database data was in the range of 15-20G. Therefore, a total of 55 days (over two months) of valid data was selected for the study. It was determined to be the best approach for this study to write code directly in the SQL server database for data processing operations to. improve efficiency. To facilitate data processing and analysis, the valid data obtained by filtering was saved into. XLS format. (iii) Data pre-processing : To correlate the GPS point data with the actual highway segment, it was necessary to combine the vehicle data with the corresponding spatial position to obtain the vehicle speed distribution at different locations on the map. In this study, the map-matching method was used to match GPS data with the road sections. The target road was broken into 142 road sections, and then the SQL server data filter was imported into ARCGIS. More than 400,000 valid data points were matched. These points contained key information, such as dimensions, longitude, time, heading angle, and speed. These points served as basic data for the calculation of road speed. The high-quality data obtained for this study were screened and mapped using ARCGIS and are shown in Fig. 1 Fig. 1 Open in figure viewer | &PowerPoint hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 10311078/22,7.09AM Modeling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data -Hou 2020 -IET GPS distribution before and after preprocessing 3 Results and discussion 3.1 Overall speed profiles According to the unit division method of the operating speed calculation, the road was divided into 92 valid sections. Each road type was numbered: straight section: 1; curved section: 2; longitudinal section: 3; and curved slope section: 4, as shown in Fig. 2 (93 to 99 are tunnel sections, shown only in the figure but not considered in the research). The vehicle speed analysed in this study was divided into two types: the theoretical operating speed Vgs calculated by the model and the actual operating speed Vp; collected through operating vehicle GPS, as shown in Fig. 3. Fig. 2 Open in figure viewer | ¥PowerPoint Change of actual speed and operating speed with radius in a straight section Fig.3 Open in figure viewer | %PowerPoint bnps:Metresearch onlinelbrary.wilay.comidol/10.104aietts.2019.0563 811078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET Section map of the average of the theoretical speed and actual speed of the left and right lines According to IHSDM, the theoretical speed is the speed value predicted by the operating speed prediction model. For each piece of data that has been divided, the entering vehicle speed, the middle vehicle speed, and the exiting vehicle speed on the road section, both calculate the average represents the theoretical vehicle speed Vgs on the road of this section, as shown in Fig. 3. The speed curve of the target road shows that the theoretical operating speed of large vehicles was generally between 65 and 75 km/h, most of which was distributed at 75 km/h and the theoretical speed of large vehicles on the left and right lines was generally consistent. The actual operating speed refers to the speed at which the GPS data- collecting device was automatically positioned and measured under the actual road conditions. According to the speed curve of the target road, the actual operating speed of large vehicles was generally between 40 and 90 km/h, most of which was distributed at 75 km/h, and the distribution range of the actual operating speed of large vehicles on the left and right lines was generally the same. Comparing the two actual speed curves and theoretical operating speed curves in Fig. 3, it can be observed that when a large vehicle ran on this freeway, the relationship between the operating speed Vgs and the actual speed was calculated according to the difference of the road alignment, and the law of change was also different. In addition, it can be observed that the operating speeds Vgs on the left and right lines all fluctuated around 75 km/h; however, during the actual operation of the vehicle, the vehicle speed was not completely maintained according to the theoretically calculated results; its fluctuation range was larger than that of Vgs. As can be observed from Fig. 3, the roads corresponding to the points where the vehicle speed changed more (mainly as a decline) were either the road types numbered 3 and 4 or the road sections near these two road types. It can be hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 1131078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET observed that in the vicinity of most number 3 road sections (longitudinal slope sections), the actual speeds of the left and right lines all show opposite trends, such as in sections 64 and 105. The main reason for this being that when driving on a longitudinal slope section, if the left line is downhill, the speed will increase as a whole, then the right line will be uphill, and the overall speed will be lower. For sections with the same speed change trend, the operating vehicle will decelerate for safety reasons. Therefore, when the vehicle enters, exits, and is driving on a longitudinal slope section and curved slope section, the speed will change significantly. The common feature of these two road types is that the longitudinal slope is large. From this, it can be inferred that longitudinal slopes have a greater impact on large vehicles operating on the highway. It can be observed that the speed changes on particular road sections are relatively large, and the speed of some road sections is significantly reduced. The speed of some road sections may be slightly higher than the operating speed Vgs. Therefore, when designing a road, in many cases, the route is designed according to a method in which a horizontal curve includes a vertical curve [33]. 3.2 Effect of road alignment on actual operating speed To study the influence of road alignment on the actual operating speed of large vehicles, this study extracted two key factors: the horizontal curve radius and vertical slope. Four types of road units and their influence laws are also discussed herein. When studying the influence of the radius of a horizontal curve on the speed of a large vehicle, it is necessary to control the gradient of the longitudinal slope. On the target highway, the longitudinal slope of the whole line was analysed. The section with a gradient of more than 3% belongs to the longitudinal slope section and curved slope section. (i) Straight line section: Horizontal curves were divided into straight segments and horizontal segments. According to previous studies, a plane line with a radius of 1500 m or more was classified as a straight line. According to a previous theoretical model study, the radius of the curve at this time has little effect on the vehicle speed. For a section with a longitudinal gradient of 1% or less, to study the variation law of the speed of a large hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 19311078122, 7:09AM —_—_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET vehicle with a straight section radius, after integrating the data of the left and right lines, each section was arranged in the order of small to large radius to a total of 60 data units, as shown in Fig. 2. It can be observed that the theoretical operating speed Vs in the straight section was generally maintained at 75 km/h. With an increase of radius, the actual speed of the vehicle fluctuated around 75 km/h, showing no obvious change. In the range of 1500 m to infinity, the average vehicle speed was 70.8 km/h and the standard deviation was 9.1 km/h. This shows that when a large vehicle is operating on a straight section, the radius of the horizontal curve does not have a significant effect on the vehicle speed To analyse the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed, IBM SPSS. statistical analysis package was used to further analyse the statistics. A single sample T- test was performed on the actual speed, The analysis result was P <0.05 indicating that there was a significant difference in this data group. In the paired-sample T-test results for the theoretical speed and the actual speed, P <0.05 indicates that there was also a significant difference between the two groups of data. The theoretical speed and actual speed were compared to make the boxplot shown in Fig. 4. As can be observed in the figure, although the mean values of the two sets of data were not significantly different, the standard deviation of the theoretical speed (1.34) and the standard deviation of the actual speed (9.07) were significantly different. This shows that when a large vehicle is driving on a straight section, although the radius has no significant effect on the operating speed, in actual operation, the vehicle will still be affected by many factors in some cases, leading to a new theory that states that operating speed and model prediction speed are inconsistent. (ii) Horizontal curve section: According to previous studies, a planar linear shape with a radius of <1500 m can be classified as a horizontal curve [38] and other studies have indicated that the radius of the curve at this time influences the vehicle speed (J. In particular, if the radius of the curve is small, it may cause a rollover accident [39]. For the section where the longitudinal slope was <1%, to study the variation rule of the speed of a large vehicle with a radius on the curved section in the horizontal curve alignment, 14 data units on the left and right were arranged in ascending order of radius, as shown in Fig. 5. Itis observed that the operating speed Ves of the large vehicle on the curve segment was maintained at 67-75 km/h, which is in consideration of the influence of the horizontal curve radius. There was only a speed drop of <10 km/h on the small radius curve segment. The actual speed Vgps can be observed at 53-84 km/h. Overall, as the radius decreased, the speed decreased. This suggests that on the horizontal curve segment, the theoretical speed and the actual speed are similar. To analyse the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed, a single- sample T-test was performed. The analysis result was P <0.05, indicating that there was a significant difference in this data group. The paired sample T-test results for the hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 vais1078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET theoretical speed and the actual speed P > 0.05, indicate that there was no significant difference between the two groups of data. A box-plot was made based on the theoretical speed and actual speed, as shown in Fig. 6 As can be observed in the figure, although the average values were not significantly different, the standard deviation of the theoretical speed (2.82) was significantly different from the standard deviation of the actual speed (9.48). Preliminary analysis shows that although there was a significant difference in the actual speed data set, there was no significant difference with the theoretical speed as a whole, which also proves the accuracy of the proposed large speed forecasting model. Of course, given the limited number of speed units in the curve segment, the amount of data can be increased in the future and further analysed. (iil) Uphill vertical curve : When studying the effect of vertical slope on the speed of large vehicles, the radius of the horizontal curve must be controlled to eliminate the effect of the radius being too small on the vehicle speed. Therefore, a section with a radius >1500 m was selected for this study. For an uphill section with a radius >1500 m, the horizontal axis was arranged from small to large according to the size of the vertical slope. The results are shown in Fig. 7. In terms of theoretical speed, with an increase of slope, the theoretical operating speed Vas of large-scale vehicles remained 75 km/h in a large range. Ata vertical slope of 3%, a significant speed drop occurred. In the section with a gradient >3%, the vehicle's operating speed on the vertical section was maintained at 73 km/h. In terms of actual speed, when the uphill slope was <1%, the operating speed Ves of the large vehicle was maintained at 75 km/. When the slope uphill gradient was >1%, the actual vehicle speed was <75 km/h. In the range of 1-3%, the actual operating speed average was 65 km/h, which was obviously lower than the operating speed. In the 34% range, the average operating speed was 56 km/h, and the lower speed was 45.7 km/h. This is due to the greater mass of large vehicles and the weight of cargo. When the vehicle was in the uphill section, the vehicle possessed sufficient traction, which resulted in low speed. Particularly in a mountainous area, a lower operating speed resulted in a larger speed differential with other vehicles, which may cause crashes [40]. When designing roads, particular attention should be paid to the danger brought by heavy vehicles such that the effect of road conditions on long and large vertical slopes is mitigated. To analyse the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed, a single sample T -test was performed on the actual speed. The analysis result was P <0.05, indicating that there was a significant difference in this data group. In the paired-sample T -test results for the theoretical speed and the actual speed, P <0.05 indicates that there was also a significant difference between the two groups of data. A box-plot developed based on the theoretical speed and actual speed is shown in Fig. 8. As can be observed in the figure, although the mean values were not significantly different, the standard hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 16311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET deviation of the theoretical speed (1.37) and the standard deviation of the actual speed (9.97) were significantly different. This shows that the operating speed of large vehicles on the uphill section was inconsistent with the theoretical speed of the model prediction, which also reflects the deviation of the previous large-vehicle speed forecasting model, which needs improvement. To quantitatively deduce the relationship between the actual speed of large vehicles and the gradient of the uphill slope, a linear fitting of the actual speed of the uphill section and the radius of the curve was made, as shown in Fig. 9. The relationship between actual operating speed and slope on the uphill section can be described by Y= ~ 4,6728X + 72.986, where Yis the operating speed (km/h), X's the slope (%) on uphill. The goodness of fit was R® = 0.241, and the degree of fit was satisfactory. At the same time, an analysis of the correlation between the actual speed of the uphill section and the radius of the smooth curve was performed: P = -0.491. The fitting result shows that there is a significant correlation, the operating speed of large vehicles decreases with an increase of slope when driving on an uphill section. This result provides a reference for the prediction model of large vehicle speed on an uphill-slope. The deductions from the comparisons and analyses above indicate that the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed on the uphill slope is relatively large; especially when the slope is large, the speed of the large vehicle drops greatly. This may be due to the fact that the current vehicle power is different from the theory assumption, and the impact of overload on the operating speed cannot be ignored. Therefore, when designing the road, these factors that cause the speed drop should be fully considered, and the operating speed model should be revised. in actual traffic management, severe overweight behaviours should also be paid attention to avoid safety risks caused by excessively low vehicle speeds. (iv) Downhill vertical curve : Similar processing as above, through the actual operating data, it was possible to analyse the impact of the downhill slope on the speed of large vehicles. For a downhill section with a radius >1500 m, the horizontal axis was arranged from small to large in accordance with the size of the longitudinal slope, the results of which are shown in Fig, 10. it can be observed that on the downhill section when the longitudinal slope was <1.5%, the actual operating speed Vgs of the large vehicle was maintained at 75 km/h. As the gradient of the downgrade section increased, the actual operating speed gradually deviated from 75 km/h. It can be clearly observed that the actual speed was higher than the theoretical speed. When the downhill slope was close to 3%, the actual measured speed was significantly higher than the theoretically calculated operating speed Ves. The longitudinal gradient was 3.9%, and the average speed was 88.87 km/h. The downhill section of the graded slope shows a systematic high speed. This is due to the prevalence of overloading problems in some areas. When the vehicle descended, the speed increased as the slope increased. The higher speed caused by the vertical gradient hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 1631‘182, 7.09 AM Modeling age vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway algnment based on aggregated GPS data -Hou-2020-IET significantly impacts traffic accidents (41). For road design, such conditions should be avoided, especially on slopes with large slope values and on which the braking requirement for large vehicles is high. These requirements also reflect a relatively large potential safety hazard. At this time, large vehicle drivers should be reminded to decelerate before entering the vertical slope. To analyse the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed, a single sample T test was performed on the actual speed. The analysis result was P <0.05, indicating that there was a significant difference in this data group. In the paired-sample T test results for the theoretical speed and the actual speed, P <0.05 indicates that there was also a significant difference between the two groups of data. A box-plot was developed based on theoretical speed and actual speed and is shown in Fig. 11 wi al a cay Spe Fig. 10 Open in figure viewer | ¥PowerPoint Changes of actual speed and operating speed with slope on downhill Open in figure viewer | PowerPoint Fitting of actual speed and slop on uphill section bnps:Metresearch onlinelbrary.wilay.comidol/10.104aietts.2019.0563 v3107822, 7.09 AM ‘erst on reeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data How - 2020 -IET ‘Speedin, ‘Theoretical speed ‘Actual average speed Fig. 8 Open in figure viewer | PowerPoint Theoretical and actual speed of the uphill Fig. 7 Open in figure viewer | #PowerPoint Changes of actual speed and operating speed with slope on uphill Intps:etresearch.onineibrary.wiley.comidol/10.1049ietts.2019.0563 1831107822, 7.09 AM ‘erst on reeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data How - 2020 -IET Theoreical speed ‘Accualaverage speed Fig. 6 Open in figure viewer | #PowerPoint Theoretical and actual speed on the curve Fig. 5 Open in figure viewer | #PowerPoint Change of the actual speed and the operating speed with a radius of the curved section Intps:etresearch.onineibrary.wiley.comidol/10.1049ietts.2019.0563 19311018/22,7.09 AM Modeling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data -Hou 2020 -IET =a Sa Sy “ “Theoreteal speed ig. 4 Theoretical and actual speed of straight section Intps:etresearch.onineibrary.wiley.comidol/10.1049ietts.2019.0563 Open in figure viewer ¥ PowerPoint1078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET 2 g.| = 2 “> 3 Theoretical speed Actual average speed Fig. 11 Open in figure viewer | PowerPoint Theoretical and actual speed of the downhill It can be observed that although the average values were not significantly different, the standard deviation of the theoretical speed (1.39) and the standard deviation of the actual speed (7.97) were significantly different. This shows that the operating speed of large vehicles on a downhill section is inconsistent with the theoretical speed of the model prediction, which also reflects the flaws in the previous large vehicle speed forecasting models, which require improvement. To quantitatively analyse the relationship between the downhill slope and the actual speed, a linear fitting of the actual speed of the downhill section and the radius of the curve was made, as shown in Fig. 12. The relationship between actual operating speed and slope on downhill section can be described by Y = — 3.2419X + 70.901, where Yis the operating speed (km/h), hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 21311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET X is the slop (%) on the downhill. The goodness of fit in the results was R? = 0.1746, and the degree of fit was satisfactory. At the same time, a correlation between the actual speed of the downhill segment and the radius of the curve was made. The analysis result shows that P = -0.418, indicating a significant correlation—that is to say, the speed of a large vehicle increased with the increase of the slope when driving on a downhill section, which provides a reference for the prediction model of the speed of large vehicles on the down-slope. Fig. 12 Open in figure viewer | %PowerPoint Fitting of actual speed and slop in downhill section To better investigate the variation of the speed of large vehicles on uphill and downhill slopes, the uphill speed was compared with the downhill speed. It can be observed that in the downhill section, the theoretical operating speed Vgs and the actual operating speed Vg,. differed by ~2 km/h. Although there was a gap, the gap was not great. On the uphill section, the theoretical operating speed Vgs and the actual operating speed Vaps differed by about 10 km/h. Therefore, on the uphill section, the speed model proposed herein is of urgent need. The deductions from the comparisons and analyses above indicate that the difference between the theoretical speed and the actual speed on the hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 221811078122, 7:09AM —_—_—Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET downhill section is relatively large, especially when the slope is relatively large, the actual speed is at a high value. The reason for this phenomenon may be due to the fact that on the downhill section, the driver's speed expectation is relatively high, coupled with possible overload and braking performance decreasing, resulting in higher vehicle speeds. When designing the road, these factors that cause high vehicle speeds should be fully considered, and the operating speed model should be revised. In addition, in actual traffic management, the possible risks brought by higher vehicle speeds should also be considered, and necessary speed control facilities should be set up to avoid operational risks caused by uncontrolled vehicle speeds. 4 Conclusion and prospect In this study, a comparative analysis of highway speeds based on the operating speed model of highway safety was conducted, A large number of actual vehicles operating speed datasets were used to match the specific road segments through map-matching methods to describe the speed profile of the freeway. Based on four types of road sections, the influence of highway alignment on the actual speed of large vehicles was explored. The main findings are as follows: (i) The actual operating speed reflects the actual variation of the vehicle speed when a large vehicle is operating on the freeway. By comparing with the theoretical operating speed, it can be observed that the result is reliable and can be used to analyse the characteristics of the speed change of large vehicles. (ii) On all types of sections, the speed of the vehicle is affected by the gradient of the longitudinal slope more than the radius of the horizontal curve. The difference of the uphill section Vas —Vgps is significantly greater than the value of the downhill section, indicating the universality of over-speeding in road transport, which has a greater impact ‘on the prediction of operating speed. (iii) It is reasonable to use the actual speed in the analysis of the characteristics of the speed of large vehicles operating on the road. Using the actual vehicle GPS monitoring data to statistically analyse the speed changes on different types of road sections, anew method has been developed to evaluate the safety of vehicles operating on the freeway using speed characteristics. (iv) This study can also provide references for road designers and managers. When the road design encounters an inevitable longitudinal road section, the driver should be told to drive as carefully as possible in advance. Especially for the uphill section, there is a hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 231311078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET significant difference in the accelerating capacity of large vehicles and small vehicles. It may also be a good suggestion that large vehicles and small vehicles be driven in different lanes to reduce rear-end collisions. In the management of existing roads, the method of this study can be used to find hidden road sections that are liable to over speeding; and corresponding deceleration facilities, such as speed limit signs and deceleration markings, can be added to suitable locations to improve traffic safety. Although the study compares the actual speed with operating speed characteristics, it provides new ideas for the operation of road traffic safety evaluation, and the analysis has achieved the above results, However, the following aspects involved in this study still need further research: (i) Although this study uses as much data as possible to analyse the impact of various road variables on vehicle speed, it still does not cover all road types. Therefore, more types of roads should be analysed. (ii) Although this study excluded as much as possible the impact of extraneous factors, such as tunnels, intercommunication etc., there are still other potential influencers, such as night-time, adverse weather, and construction, which affect the speed on road sections. An understanding of how to effectively exclude these factors can improve the reliability of the results. (iii) At present, the data from operating large vehicles is relatively easy to obtain, and the traffic data of a large number of small cars on the freeway is still relatively difficult to obtain. Therefore, obtaining the data of small cars and performing the same analysis has stronger application significance for improving the speed model on the freeway. 5 Acknowledgments This study was supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China: modelling driving cognition behaviour and driving performance improvement methodology considering workload environment (51678460); the Qilu Transportation Development Group Co, Ltd (2016B20); the Natural Science Foundation of China (51775396); and Wuhan Science and Technology Bureau Enterprise Technology Innovation Project (2018010402011175). hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 ars1078122, 7:09AM —_-Maceling large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data - Hou - 2020 -IET 1 Suwarto F, Basuki K.H.: ‘The application of traffic conflict technique as a road safety evaluation method: a case study of Hasselt intersection’, Appl. Mech. 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The Institution of Engineering and Technology is registered as a Charity in England & Wales (no 211014) and Scotland (no SC038698) hitpsetresearch.onlinelibrary.wiey.comdo!10.104@\iet-ts.2019.0569 30311078/22,7.09.AM Mailing large vehicles operating speed characteristics on freeway alignment based on aggregated GPS data -Hou - 2020 -IET About Wiley Online Library Privacy Policy Terms of Use About Cookies Manage Cookies Accessibility Wiley Research DE&l Statement and Publishing Policies Help & Support Contact Us Training and Support DMCA & Reporting Piracy Opportunities Subscription Agents Advertisers & Corporate Partners Connect with Wiley The Wiley Network Wiley Press Room 999-2022 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. All rights reserved Intps:etresearch.onineibrary.wiley.comidol/10.1049ietts.2019.0563 3131