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Chapters 1 To 3 (12 03 2022 954PM)
Chapters 1 To 3 (12 03 2022 954PM)
Developing Seismic Fragility Curves of Sto. Niño Catholic School in the City
of Taguig
Vernielyn M. Campano
Rovic C. Viloria
December 2022
CHAPTER 1
There are multiple volcanoes in the ring of fire, and the Pacific region experiences tectonic
activity. Tectonic plate motions within the ring of fire, which includes the Philippines, are the
primary cause of earthquakes there (Clemente et al., 2020). The "Big One," also known as an
earthquake with a magnitude of about 7.2, is predicted to strike the Philippines, according to
reports by the Department of Science and Technology-Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology (DOST-Phivolcs). This earthquake may impact several homes, commercial
buildings, and national roads within the boundaries of the west valley fault line.
Natural catastrophes like earthquakes frequently occur in the Philippines (Prasetyo, Y. T.,
2020). The Marikina/Valley Fault, the Central Philippine Fault, the South of Mindanao Fault,
and the Western Philippine Fault ring the area. According to the Philippine Institute of
Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), which has documented an average of 20
earthquakes per day, approximately 100-150 earthquakes are felt annually. Due to its
geographical location, the Philippines are susceptible to several threats, such as regular
typhoons, earthquakes, and 53 active volcanoes, whose eruptions rank among the deadliest and
most expensive anywhere in the world (Doroteo, 2015). Seismic Vulnerability Assessment can
reduce the risk of an earthquake where the hazards caused by an earthquake prompt the
management of risk reduction schemes (Baylon et al., 2021).
Gilani, Miyamoto, and Nifuku (2018) pointed out that previous earthquakes in developing
countries caused significant structural damage, with school buildings suffering the most harm
and being rated as having the weakest performance in contrast to other infrastructures. As of
2013 mapping, the West Valley Fault is along the Sto. Niño Catholic School in Taguig City
based on the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) Web App,
HazardHunterPh. (See Figure 1.1) Based on this report, the ground shaking is susceptible to
damages due to a PHIVOLCS Earthquake Intensity Scale of VIII.
Figure 1.1 The distance of Sto. Niño Catholic School Building to the nearest West Valley
Fault (PHIVOLCS – HazardHusterPh, 2022)
Earthquakes are among the most unpredictable and destructive natural disasters, that can
strike at any time and in any location. Most structures are affected as a result of shoddy
construction and the structure’s age, which causes damage based on the strength and magnitude
of the earthquake and, if ignored, can endanger the structure. When an earthquake hits a
structure, inertia forces are generated that can be extremely damaging, causing deformations and
horizontal and vertical shaking. That is why, the structure that is located in the areas affected by
the earthquake must be evaluated in order to maintain its strength and avoid failures and
collapses.
The Sto. Niño Catholic School building was built in 1997 and is now 25 years old. It is
located in Taguig City (14.5115375,121.0539178,13.75z) and according to PHIVOLCS
faultfinder, it is along the West Valley Fault system (Figure 1.2). There were earthquakes with
different magnitudes felt in Taguig City. With this, the structure must be assessed in order to
determine the risk posed by the previous earthquake. The researchers will assess the building by
developing seismic fragility curves to raise awareness from the past seismic issue. Furthermore,
to determine the level of damage when the strong earthquake “The Big One” will occur in Sto.
Niño Catholic School.
Figure 1.2 Distance of fault line from Sto. Niño Catholic School in Taguig using PHIVOLCS Fault
Finder
The main objective of this research is to assess the structural seismic integrity and
determine the intensity that Sto. Niño Catholic School building can withstand earthquakes by
developing seismic fragility curves using the two methods of structural analyses: Nonlinear
Static Analysis (Pushover Analysis) and Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis (Time History Analysis).
Furthermore, to perform the two analyses, this study will use SAP2000 software to simulate the
school building structural model. Specifically, this research has three objectives:
To develop the pushover curve and capacity curve, and determine the performance points
using Capacity Spectrum method.
To determine the structural model parameters such as damage ranks and damage ratio
based on the two analyses.
To collect all the data needed for proper evaluation and interpretation of this study.
1.4 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This study will determine the structural condition of the school building by assessing risk
and vulnerability to provide awareness and security. This study will collect data and use various
methods to evaluate the performance of the school building and the potential damage. The result
will provide knowledge, information, and recommendations that will benefit the individual as
follows:
To school, students, and employees - the study will serve as an awareness for the people who
attend Sto. Niño Catholic School building to be aware of possible damage that may occur once a
major earthquake hits Metro Manila. This study will be a helpful tool in maintaining the school
building for the people working attending the establishment.
To engineers – this study can be used in engineering for this information to refine future plans
for buildings to make them more resilient to natural disasters.
To community - this research will benefit people who live closely to Sto. Niño Catholic School
building whenever a natural disaster might occur and to prepare minimize the potential damage.
To PHIVOLCS – this study will benefit from this research by having better future projects that
can utilize the study's data. They will have an idea about detailed seismic evaluation from the
school, which will help them develop efficient earthquake response plans.
To local government - this study will assist in developing a disaster risk reduction strategy that
reduces the local area's seismic impact. Knowing the potential results and making plans to reduce
the possible harm will be much easier with the aid of the study.
To public’s safety - the findings of this study may be used as additional data to determine
whether the structure needs to be improved, specifically whether it can sustain a 0.4g peak
ground acceleration as specified by the Philippine National Structural Code.
To future researchers - this study will be a helpful resource and a point of reference for other
researchers doing research or planning to study a related topic in the future.
1.5 SCOPE AND DELIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
The scope of this research was to create seismic fragility curves for Sto. Niño Catholic
School in Taguig City to evaluate structural seismic integrity. This study will investigate the
building's ability to endure shear failures and develop the fragility curve by employing two
seismic assessment methods: Nonlinear Static Analysis (Pushover Analysis) and Nonlinear
Dynamic Analysis (Time History Analysis). This study will use SAP2000 software to create
digitized structural model of the school building and to analyze the two methods. The structure
will be subjected to various magnitudes, with a minimum magnitude of 6.0 and a total of 50
Ground Motion Data (GMD) from the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology (IRIS)
database. The Philippines' earthquake magnitudes are shown in Table 1.1, and the earthquakes
that occurred in foreign countries are shown in Table 1.2. The data will be limited to the years
1995 to the present and will primarily come from the Philippines and neighboring countries, i.e.,
Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, China. Furthermore, this study will not include soil conditions, wind
loading, potential damage costs, or appropriate school building retrofitting.
FOREIGN EARTHQUAKES
Yea Dat
Month Magnitude Location
r e
1995 October 6 6.7 Indonesia
1996 January 1 7.8 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
1999 September 20 7.7 Taiwan
2000 October 6 6.7 Western Honshu, Pajan
2001 December 18 6.8 Taiwan Region
2002 March 31 7.1 Taiwan Region
2003 May 26 6.9 Halmahera, Indonesia
2004 December 26 9 West Coast Of Northern Sumatra
2005 March 20 6.6 Kyushu, Japan
2006 June 11 6.4 Kyushu, Japan
2007 July 16 6.8 Sea of Japan
2008 May 12 7.9 Sichuan, China
2009 August 10 7.5 Andaman Islands, India Region
2010 March 4 6.3 Taiwan
2011 March 11 9.1 Near East Coast Of Honshu, Japan
2012 August 18 6.3 Sulawesi, Indonesia
2013 June 2 6.3 Taiwan
2014 November 22 6.2 Eastern Honshu, Japan
2015 May 12 6.8 Near East Coast Of Honshu, Japan
2016 May 31 6.4 Taiwan Region
2017 May 29 6.6 Sulawesi, Indonesia
2018 September 28 7.5 Minahassa Peninsula, Sulawesi
2019 June 18 6.4 Near West Coast Of Honshu, Japan
2020 December 10 6.1 Taiwan Region
2021 October 24 6.2 Taiwan
2022 September 5 6.6 Sichuan, China
The conceptual framework that this research will follow is illustrated in (Figure 1.4). The
researchers will conduct extensive research on the topic from various authors, and the Sto. Niño
Catholic School provided the as-built structural and architectural plan, which will be studied to
understand its specifications. From IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology), the
ground motion data will be obtained. With the use of engineering software, such as SAP2000,
the building’s structural model will be created utilizing the software finite element analysis
capability. Pushover Analysis is a nonlinear static analysis method for calculating structure
strength to determine the structure's yield displacement and ultimate displacement, whereas from
Time History Analysis the ductility factors will be obtained. Capacity Spectrum Method is used
to determine the performance points based on the derived response spectra of the ground motion
data and the capacity curve. In general, those procedures will determine the structural condition
and the results of the analysis will lead to a conclusion and recommendation.
Input Process Output
Collecting related
studies relevant to
the topic and doing
an extensive study
on the important Create structural model of
the school building using Yield displacement
sources and
SAP2000 and ultimate
information.
displacement
The Sto. Niño Catholic School, Inc was built on 1997 and is the only Catholic school in
Sampaloc St., North Signal Village, Taguig City that serves students from Nursery to Senior
High School.
Figure 2.1 Location of Sto. Niño Catholic School using Google Earth
Figure 2.2 Capacity Spectrum curve for Identification (Reddy & Vasugi, 2017)
2.4 Nonlinear Static Analysis
Nonlinear static analysis, also known as Pushover Analysis, is popular due to its simple
computer based technique that calculates the peak response of a building or a non-building
structure and its components under earthquake loading. One reason in using this analysis is that
less conservative acceptance criteria can be used with known consequences. (Dey et al., 2015)
According to (Mahesh & Pandit, 2020), it is subjected under vertical and lateral loading
to evaluate the performance of an integrated structural system by means of strength and
deformation demands, and will be compared to the existing capacity of the structure that shows
the relationship between base shear force and roof displacement as shown in (Figure 2.3). The
pushover procedures are capacity curve, demand curve, and performance point and is shown in
(Figure 2.4). Performance point is the intersection between demand and capacity curve. The
demand curve is a plot between spectral acceleration and displacement, whereas the capacity
curve is a plot between roof top displacement and base shear. Furthermore, it provides
information about its weaknesses and early failure, which can be used to make decisions. If the
building is subjected to retrofitting or reconstruction, the members that need to be strengthened
can be easily identified based on the performance levels such as Operational (O), Immediate
Occupancy (IO), Life Safety (LS) and Collapse Prevention (CP) (Figure 2.5).
Figure 2.3 Schematic representation of pushover analysis procedure (Dey et al., 2015)
Figure 2.4 Pushover procedures
(Mahesh & Pandit, 2020) Figure 2.5 Performance levels
(Mahesh & Pandit, 2020)
Time history analysis is a potent tool provided by precision and modelling. It is generally
acknowledged that time-history analysis is the most accurate and reliable method for simulating
the response of structures exposed to high levels of seismic excitation (Pinho, 2007). When the
assessed structural response is nonlinear, it is a crucial technique for structural seismic analysis.
A representative earthquake time history for the structure under consideration is needed to
conduct such an analysis. Time history analysis examines a structure's dynamic response to a
given loading that may change over time step-by-step (Wilkinson and Hiley, 2006 citen in Patil,
2013). The input ground motion records are a crucial factor in getting the NLRHA procedure to
produce results that can be trusted. The main goal of the amplitude-scaling and ground motion
selection procedures is to ensure that the input for NLRHA indicates the level of ground shaking
hazard for a specific site and structure (Moris et. al, 2019).
2.6 Fragility Curves
The fragility curves are calculated using data from the geography infrastructure, and
transport. The dataset includes information on the extent of damage, building material, number
of storeys per structure, and location. This information is crucial for understanding the causes of
building damage since damage analysis can account for changes in structural and construction
site features. Several sets of fragility curves are created using least squares regression to illustrate
the impact of building material, number of storeys, and geography on building damage levels.
These findings are critical for improved future assessment of building damage, land use
management, and disaster preparation (Suppasri, A., Mas, E., Charvet, I. et al., 2012).
CHAPTER 3
METHODOLOGY
A. Research Design
The research design for this study is depicted in Figure 3.1, and it illustrates the step-by-
step procedures and different methods used to assess the Sto. Niño Catholic School in Taguig
City. The As-built Architectural and Structural plan was obtained from the school and is
modelled using SAP2000, a structural analysis software. The modelled structure will be
subjected to the two analyses considering shear as the failure mode. Nonlinear Static Analysis
(Pushover Analysis) to obtain the pushover curve, yield displacement and maximum
displacement, and capacity curve. Nonlinear Dynamic Analysis (Time History Analysis) to
obtain the maximum displacement. The two analyses is used to determine the parameters such
as, Ductility factors, Damage Index and Damage ranks. This study utilized the Capacity
Spectrum method to determine different parameters to generate sets of fragility curves. To plot
various sets of fragility curves, the data collected were tabulated and used in Microsoft Excel's
lognormal function. The seismic fragility curves plot in damage were obtained to determine the
PGA at a rate of probability of exceedance. The maximum acceleration response of the structure
was then calculated by scaling the GMD to the obtained PGA and applying it to a simulation of
the SNCS model in SAP 2000.
As-Built Architectural and Structural
Plan
Model of Structure
Ground Motion
Response Spectra
Capacity Curve Capacity Spectrum
Method
Probability of
Occurrences Damage ranks Damage Index
Hysteresis Model
Probability of
Damage Ratio Statistical Parameters Exceedance
Occurrences
Fragility Curves
B. Data Gathering Procedures and Instrumentation Used
Figure 3.1 Research Design
The as-built architectural and structural plan of the school building was obtained
from Sto. Niño Catholic School in Taguig City.
This is used to determine the distance of the fault line based on the chosen
location, and the steps are as follows:
V. RESPONSE SPECTRA
The data gathered in IRIS will be copied using Microsoft Excel. The structural
model was subjected to 50 ground motion data from the Philippines and neighboring
countries, i.e., Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, and China. Ground Motion Data (GMD) list
ranges from various peak ground accelerations (PGA) between 0.1g to 3g with 0.1
intervals. Import the GMD to PRISM (Processing and Review Interface for Strong-
Motion Data) software to generate the response spectrum in acceleration. Prism is a free
program for analyzing the seismic response of structures envisioned as systems with a
single degree of freedom.
1. Input the ground motion data obtained from 0.1g to 3g. For both the x and y
directions, a total of 50 ground motion data were used.
2. Define the load cases for the Time History Analysis and Non-linear Dynamic
Analysis after importing all the necessary ground motion data.
3. Perform a basic dynamic non-linear analysis using each ground motion data set's
individual dead and modal loads. A different hysteresis graph produced by the
SAP2000 was used to evaluate the maximum displacement.
4. The area of each hysteresis graph can be calculated using MATLAB to obtain the
hysteretic energy for ductility factors.
VT
W (1)
Sa =
α
∆roof
Sd = (2)
PF × φroof
[∑ ( ) ]
N 2
W i φi / g
i=1
α= (3)
[ ∑ ][∑ ( ) ]
N N
2
W i /g W i φi / g
i=1 i=1
[ ]
N
∑ ( W i φi ) /g
i=1
PF= (4)
[∑ ( ]
N
W i φi ) /g
2
i=1
Where,
The parameters needed in this study were obtained by subjecting the school
building to two analyses: nonlinear static analysis and nonlinear dynamic analysis. The
data gathered were used to determine the yield displacement and maximum displacement.
The results were then used to calculate ductility factors using the formula shown below.
(Baylon et al., 2018)
δ max( Dynamic)
Displacement Ductility μd =
δ γ (Static )
Where,
δmax(Dynamic) = maximum displacement at the hysteresis model (dynamic)
δ max(Static)
Ultimate Ductility μu =
δ γ (Static )
Where,
δmax(Static) = maximum displacement at the hysteresis model (static)
Eh
Hysteretic Energy Ductility μh=
Ee
Where,
Eh = hysteretic energy (area under the hysteresis model)
Ee = yield energy (area under the pushover curve (static) but until
yield point)
From pushover analysis, the parameters such as damage index and damage ranks
are used to generate the sets of fragility curves. Damage index is calculated using the
computed values of ductility factors. Then the result of damage index is used to obtain
the number of occurrences of each damage rank. Whereas, Damage rank were used as
frequencies in solving the occurring probability for different PGA values and is shown in
Table 3.1. (Baylon et al., 2021).
μd+ β μh
Damage Index DI =
μu
Where,
μd = Displacement Ductility
μu = Ultimate Ductility
No . of occurrence
Damage Ratio DR=
Total number of records
STATISTICAL TREATMENT
Mean λ=
∑x
N
Where,
x = Individual ground motion data obtained
N = The sample size of ground motion data obtained
Standard Deviation ξ=
√ ∑ ( x−λ )2
N−1
Where,
λ = Mean
ξ = Standard deviation