FEASIBILITY STUDY REPORT ON UTILIZATION OF. SMALL-SCALE NATURAL GAS IN JAMBI PROVINCE THE REPUBLIC OF INDONESIA JIGS Liarary” eg peas NOVEMBER, 1988 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY2 1775PREFACE In response to a request from the Government of the Republic of Indonesia, the Government of Japan has decided to conduct a study on the utilization of small-scale natural gas in the Jambi Province of the Republic of Indonesi and has entrusted the study to the Japan International Cooperation Agency (ICA). JICA sent to Indonesia a study team headed by Mr. Nobuo Ishii, ‘Techno Consultants, Inc. from January 3i to February 28, 1988, ‘The team had discussions on the study with the officials concerned of the Government of Indonesia and conducted field surveys in the study-related areas. After the team returned to Japan, further studies were made and the present report was prepared. I hope that this report will contribute to the social and economie development of the Jambi Province and to the promotion of friendly relations between our two countries. I wish to express my appreciation to the officials concerned of the Government of the Republic of Indonesia for their close cooperation extended to the team. November 1988 Ken fF] Kensuke Yanagiya President Japan International Cooperation AgencyCONTENTS CHAPTER Page 1, INTRODUCTION- 1-1 Background of Study 1-2 Purpose of the Study +++» 1-3 1-8 Scope of Study ++ 1-4 1-4 Field Survey - peeeeee rennin ES 2. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION .-:+++++ wee aA 3, THE CURRENT CONDITION OF JAMBI PROVINCE. aH 3-1 Summary of Jambi Province .- a a 3-2 The Beonomy of Jambi Province .s.+.+++ + 2 3-3 The Bnergy Situation of Jambi Province ". 36 4, MARKET sTuby . ert eeicaida a ot 4-1 Market Study on Electricity at 4-2 LPG Market Study. 4-46 5. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION .... Tedeses oo 5-1 bese So 5-2 Prospect of Natural Gas Production ........, S19 5-3 Consideration for Project Implementation ..., 5-86 6. PROJECT SCHEME . det eetleedde dd eee eh ot 6-1 Process for Determining Project Scheme ...., 6-1 6-2 Determination of Power Generation System ..,, 6-3 6-3 Discussion of Power Plant Site .............0. oil 6-4 Determination of Natural Gas Transmission System and Pretreatment System ............ 6-5 Determination of LPG Recovery System 6-6 Overall System Evaluation . Leet salsa th p6=33- 6-39 6-46 6-7 Optimum Project Scheme10 a CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF NATURAL GAS PRETREATMENT FACILITY seeeeeees 1 Design Condition « 72 Natural Gas Pretreatment Facility «+++ CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF LPG RECOVERY PLANT +++++++ 81 Prerequisites ++--- 8 8-3 Auxiliary Facilities -- LPG Recovery Plant +++++++ CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF NATURAL GAS PIPELINE «++ ++ 8-1 Preconditions +++ + 9-2 Specification of Line Pipe «+ 9-3. System Description +++ +++-+++essseeees 9-4 Corrosion Control + ++++sseesevseeeeeeee 9-5 Installation «+.» 9-6 Strength and Tightness Test -- CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF POWER PLANT . 10-1 Design Conditions .. 10-2 Fuel Oil and Lubricating Oil 10-3 Power Generating Facility ... 10-4 Power Plant ....... 10-5 Environmental Protection .........26+ CONCEPTUAL DESIGN OF TRANSMISSION AND DISTIBUTION SYSTEMS |, Basak 11-1 Input Variables... os 11-2 ‘Transmission and Distribution Modes 11-8 System Analyses 11-4 Hardwares of the Proposed Transmission and Distribution Systems ,,, et e1 a4 8-26 ot om 9 o-12 9-14 16 9-18 10-1 = 40-1 10-2 10-6 10-32 10-4012, 13. 14 15. 16, CONSTRUCTION WORKS 12-1 General ++ +++ 12°2 Natural Gas Pretreatment Facility and LPG Recovery Plant (at Sengeti) ..-... 12-9 Natural Gas Pipeline - 12-4 Power Plant ssreeereseeeereeee 12-5 Electric Lines « 12-6 Schedule ... 12-7. Scheduling of Construction Machines . 32-8 Supervisors . CONSTRUCTION COST ........5 13-1 Scope of Construction Cost 13-2 Cost Calculation ....... 13-3. Summary OPERATION PLAN .. 14-1 Operation Plan ee 14-2 Organization and Personnel . 14-3. Operati n Supervision and ‘Trai TOTAL INVESTMENT COST ,, 15-1 General 15-2 Summary of Total Investment 15-3 Plant Construction Cost ,, 15-4 Pre-Operation Cost... 18-5 Initial Working Capital | 15-6 Interest during Construction FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ooo ee 16-1. Method of Financial Analysis. 16 16-3 Total Capital Requirement 16-4 Operation Expenses, Major Premises for Financial Analysis 12-1 12-1 12-2 12-5 ia-4 12-22 12-23 42-25 12-26 13-1 134 133 13-15 Vet tact tia 16-7 15-1 15-1 15-2 15-3 15-4 15-5 15-6 tert 16-1 16-2 16-6 16-716-5 Result of Financial Analysis +++++++++++ +05 16-10 16-6 Comparison with Diesel, Power Plant++++++ 16-15 16-7 Sensitivity Analysis ¢+++++eeeeeeeceeeeteeeeeces 16-17 16-8 Summary of Hinancial Analysis +++ss++seeeeeeeessseeeeesees 16°22 17. BCONOMIC ANALYSIS so.eeceseseessseceeeeteteenceeesersnnnes Tt ATA General vveeeeeeeeeee Pediat eet tase aE 17-2 Eeonomic Benefit and Cost --....01eeeseeee00s 1 17-3 Economic Internal Rate of Return s+++++ee0005 17-3 11-4 Sensitivity Analysis -- eerie 17-4 17-5 Caloulation of Foreign Curreney Balance .....+ 17-8 17-6 Overall Bvaluation « tees w44 APPENDIX, APPENDIX-1: STUDY TEAM AND FIELD SURVEY ITINERARY APPENDIX-2: RESULTS OF FIELD SURVEY APPENDIX-3: PRESENT SITUATION AND FUTURE PLAN OF TRANSMIS- SION AND DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM IN JAMBI PROVINCE APPENDIX-4: LPG RECOVERY FROM HIGH PRESSURE SEPARATOR GAS APPENDIX-5: MODIFICATION OF EXISTING DIESEL ENGINE POWER STATION TO DUAL-FUEL ENGINE POWER STATIONConversion a) (2) (3) (a) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) Length itt Lin Volume ret? 1 gal (usa) 1 Barrel Weight 1b 1 grain Velocity 1 knot Degree oF Pressure 1 psig Flow Rate L MwSCED Energy 1 keal 1 Bru Power 1 keal/h IN 1 HP 1 PS Table 0.3048 m 0.0254 m 0.02832 m? 0.003785 m? 0.15897 mn? 0.4536 kg 0.064799 ¢ 1.852 km/h 32+ 2c 0.07031 kg/em?g 1,116 Nn’/h 0.001163 kWh 9.000293 kh 0.001163 kW 0.10197 ket 0.74569 KW 0.73549 KW1 1. INTRODUCTION Background of Study The government of the Republic of Indonesia has been executing its national polley by issuing five-year national development. programs, which are guidelines for each province on solving its problems and directions arid ‘measures to be taken, in order to develop and. enhance the Overall economy on national level as well as provincial level. ‘The current five-year plan-has placed stress on, among other (1) Balanced economic development, focusing on development of rural regions for increasing food products for coping with increase of population. (2) Fair distribution of wealth by creating employment opportunities. (8) National stability through promotion of eeonomie growth, es- pecially in regions where development is below the average of the the Republic, by means of transmigration from highly populated areas. Jambi Province, located in the central part of the Island of atta, is ofie of the regions where social and industrial infrastructures are still to be ‘developed, in comparison with other parts of the Republic. A considerable amount of its economy is dependent on agriculture including foréstry and fisheries. However, Jambi Province is gifted with unused natural resources such as oil, natural gas and coal and its population is growing by a rapid rate, partially atte puted to transmigration from. the Island of Java. ‘Taking those promising factors into consideration and by effective utilization of natural and human- resourc in the future. Jambi Province is expected to develop greatlyUnder these cireumstanees,” the government of the Republic of Indonesia requested the government of Jepan to conduet a feasi- bility study on the subject of promoting regional development by utilization of unused small-seale natural gas in Jambi Province, In response to this official request from the government, Japan International Cooperation Ageney dispatched Preliminary Survey Team consisted of JICA officials and experts’ of each field to the Republic of Indonesia in September, 1987, ‘The Team had. a serles of discus~ sions about details for the implementation, of the Feasibility Study with the Counterpart of the Indonesian Government. ‘The team agreed upon and signed with the Indonesian Counterpart the Scope of Work which defined the contents and conditions of implementation of the Feasibility Study: ‘This Feasibility Study has been conducted. in. accordance with the Scope of Work. The original request from the Indonesian Counterpart on this study was Feasibility Study of the utilization of small-scale natural gas for executing four projects, namely, = Power generation ~ LPG production - Fertilizer production = Adhesive production It was made clear by JICA Preliminary Survey Mission through discus- sions with the Authorities of the government of Indonesia that; (1) Regarding the adhesives, the present supply suffices the demand of Jambi Province. Furthermore, sinee production of adhesives and fertilizer using small-scale natural gus is not economical, the necessity to construct new plants has decreased. (2) Regarding electricity generation, Jambi Province depends on Isolated electric distribution systems consisted of small dlesel engine generators and approximately one half of the household in Jambi City and its surrounding area are not electrified yet.12 In the. light of the current situation described above, it ts acknowledged that the feasibility study of a project to construct a power plant is required, using inexpensive unused gas as its fuel to promote electri ation in the region. (3) Regarding LPG, it is understood that a feasibility study is re quired regarding a project to construct LPG production plant, in view of the rate of increase on consumption of LPG in Jambi Province, Because of the present situation as mentioned above, it was agreed between the JICA Preliminary Survey ‘Team and the Indonesian Counter- part that the feasibility study for power generation and LPG produc- tion would be carried out within the framework of this program, This project is in line with "balanced economic growth", one of the policies launched by the government of Indonesia, and a development model for utitization of gas produced from smail-scale natural gas fields, applicable to other regions where similar small- scale gas fields are confirmed in various parts of the Indonesian Avehipelagoes, Purpose of the Study ‘The: purpose of the. study is to investigate technical, financial and economic feasibility of the project for power generation and LPG recovery by utilizing small-scale natural gas to be produced in Sengeti gas field, the vicinity of Jambi City and to consolidate all results of findings and assessment into the Feasibility Study Report as follows: @) To formulate a construction plan for a power plant which uses natural gas as its main fuel as well as to prepare a plan for electric transmission and distribution tines related to the power plant. (2) To formulate a construetion plan fora gas pipeline to supply fuel gas to the proposed power plant.(3) To formulate @ construction plan for an LPG recovery plant as well as to prepare ‘a plan for a pretreating facility to treat the natural gas to suit to pipeline transmission. (To evaluate the viability of the project from the technical, finaneial and economical viewpoints, based on a project scheme determining whether the capacity of each plant: meets the seale of demand defined by market study and to complete F/S Report by incorporating all of the above. 1-3 Scope of Study ‘The Feasibility Study is to study and analyze the following items: (1) Background Study of Project (A) Study on the social and economic states of Jambi Province (B) Study on the regional development plan of Jambi Province (C) Understending of the purpose and present conditions of development (2) Technical Study (A) Survey of the gas field and candidate sites for plants (B) Confirmation of volume of reservoirs and compositions of gas used for the Project (C) Technical study of power generation -project and LPG recovery project (3) Market Study (A) Study of supply and demand of energy in Jambi Province (B) Study of supply and demand of electricity and LPG in Jambi Provinee (C) Forecast on balance of supply and demand of electricity and LPG in Jambi Province14 (0) Study on price of electricity and LPG (past trends and present values) (8) Study on sales and distribution system of electricity and LPG (4) Conceptuat Design of Project {A) Study on comparison of plant sites (8) Determination of method and route of gas transmission pipeline (C) Determination of the optimum seale and system of plants (D) Environmental consideration and discussion about pollution control facilities as deemed necessary (8) Determination of required conditions of gas and utilities (F) Conceptual design of plants and related facilities (5) Implementation Plan (A) Preparation of implementation program on project construc- tion and operation (8) Preparation of plan for procurement and transportation of equipment and materials for construction of the Project (6) Estimation of Construetion Cost (A) Cost estimation of plant construction (B) Gost estimation of construction of related facilities and utilities (Financial and economic analysis Field Survey Japan International Cooperation Agency dispatched the team for field survey to the Republic of Indonesia from January 31 to February 28, 1988. The list of members of the field survey team and their survey schedule are attached in Appendix2. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION ‘Phere are a number of large and small gas fields in Indonesia and to date, the utilization of large seale gas fields is promoted for the purpose of exporting LNG and LPG. Conversely, small-scale gas fields, scattered in various parts of Indonesian Archipclagoes and some of associated gas have not been developed op utilized. However, a system to promote regional developments by the of- fective utilization of natural resources indigenous to the country will be dis~ cussed as a new, endeavor for the balanced economic development in Indonesia ich would ease population concentration in the Java Island. ‘The purpose of this project is to supply electricity and LPG needed in Jambi district by utilizing the natural gas in Sengeti, which is left unused at present. And once this project is implemented, the project will have far~ reaching influence on the economic development of the region. If the utiliza- tion of the small-scale gas fields proves effective to the regional develop- ment, the concept of this project can be used as the model for the areas similar to Jambi where small-scale gas fields are yet untapped. ‘The results of the study are summarized as follows: 1, Market = The amount of electricity consumed in Jambi Province in 1986 was 87.0 GWh ‘and 85% of it was consumed in Jambi City and surrounding areas. . The rate of electrification, is only 9% for the entire Jambi Province and 49% for Jambi City and surrounding areas, and is attributed to the lack of an electric trensmission and distribution network - A number of factories located in unelectrified areas and in areas with unstable electric supply have equipped themselves with independent power generating facilities. Most of these factories will change from their self-generating units to the PLN electric supply system as the electrifi- cation program by PLN proceeds.. The electricity demand for industrial use and household use are forecasted to increase. In order to cope with this increase of the electricity demand, PLN plans to construct a 10 MW diesel generating power plant in 1992, According to the market study, even if this 10 MW generating facility is added, ‘the construction of a power plant’ of 20 MW output range will be necessary by the end of the fiscal 1994. . ‘The supply of LPG to Jambi City was commenced in 1984 and became full seale in 1986. ‘The average consumption of LPG in Jambi Province in 1987 was 57.7 tons/month and 80% was consuined in Jambi City. OF the total con sumption of LPG in Jambi Province, 85% was for household use and 15% was for industrial use, The LPG demand in 1995 and 2000 is forecasted as follows: In 1995 : 1,540 tons/year (128 tons/month) In 2000 : 2,640 tons/year (220 tons/month) 2. Natural gas production Yen layers of gas reserves. exist in Sengeti. According to the data of PERTAMINA, the recoverable remaining gas is approximately 1.33.x 109 m? (47.0 BSCF). Based-on the engineering assumption derived from PERTAMINA data, it is judged that the life of the gas reserves will last more than 20 years if the gas production rate is in the range of 2 to 4 MMSCFD.3. 4, Power generation system . ly view of the results of the market study and the suppliability of the gas, the rated capacity of 20 MW (17 MW of the normal generating ca pacity) was determined. Regarding power generating systems, three methods of the. gas turbine generation, the steam turbine generation and the dual-fuel engine gener- ation were compared from the technical and the financial viewpoints and the dual-fuel engine generating system was selected. . Regarding the site for the proposed power plant, three locations of Sengeti, 9 location between Setiti and Jambi City, and Payo Selinesh h inelude the con- elbution were compared in terms of the overail economics wl struction costs for the pipeline and the transmission and lines as well as the energy loss due to the electricity transmission. Payo Selineah was selected as the candidate fvom the above comparison. te for the power plant Natural gas pretreating facility In order to transport the naturai gas from the gas souree to the pro- posed power plant by pipeline, a natural gas pretreating facility is necessary to remove the heavy hydrocarbons and water contained in the gas. . ‘The process to utilize the self cooling effect by adiabatic expansion of the gas itself is adopted . The installation site will be at the inlet of the pipeline, namely, at Sengeti.5. LPG recovery system For the LPG recovery system, there are two possible processes: one is the process to recover LPG from the gas separated at the GOSP, and the other is the process to recover LPG from the condensate separated at the GOSP. Both the processes were compared in this study and the system to recover LPG from the condensate was adopted. It is possible to recover 10 tons per day of LPG from the condensate and the amount will suffice to cover the LPG demand in Jambi distriet For some time. The site for LPG Recovery Plant will be Sengeti. 6. Pipeline . ‘The construction of the pipeline will be necessary to transport the wuously from Sengeti to Payo Sel posed power plant is to be erected. natural gas cont neah where the pro- . The route of the pipeline will be in the northern area of the Batang Hari river where the population density is low. ‘The length of the pipe- line is 20 km 7, ‘Transmission and distribution lines «In order to interchange electricity and facilitate the parallel’ running with the exi ing power station, the 0.3 km distance between the pro~ posed power plant and the existing power station and the 9 km distance from the proposed power plant to the switching station in the central part of the city are interconnected by the cables. Both tie lines are underground cables of 20 kV voltage.. To supply the electricity to the industrial zone In the cast pert of the city, one distribution Line from the proposed power plant and two lines from the existing Payo Selincah power station. will be installed. ‘Two lines also will be installed from the switehing station to the residential and the cultural aveas in the south-western part of the city. All of these distribution lines are of the overhead suspension type of 20 kV voltage 8 Total investment cost - Total investment cost based on a soft loan of 3.5% p.a. interest is as follows: Unit: Million Yen = Plant construction cost 4,673.8 ~ Pre-operation cost 47.7 ~ Initial working capital 19.2 - Interest during construction 139.8 ‘Total: 4,880.6 4. Financial and Economie Analysis . In the financial analysis of LPG Recovery Plant, the LPG production is set at 2,792 tons per year. It is assumed that the LPG corresponding to the demand of Jambi Province will be sold at 240 US Dollars per ton and the balance will be sold to Palembang area at 45 US Dollars per ton. ROI before tax in this case is 3.6%, If the soft. loan is applied, the financial conditions are good and the debt can be repaid without any financial difficulty.Regarding the power plant project, ‘the financial analysis was conducted with. three gas prices since the gas price has not been established yet. ‘A comparison was also made with the’ case of using a diesel engine generator, ROI before tax for each case and the unit electricity costs for the Interest of 3.5% p.a. are shown below. Gas Price ROI (36) Electricity Cost (os8/MMBTU) (Rp/kwh) 2.53 0.0 91 2.10 2.9 85 1.50 6.2 cc Diesel generation 0.3 90 . The national benefits that can be expected by the implementation of 1s the gas instead and the kerosene to be replaced by the recovered LPG. ‘The diesel oil and the kerosene saved are projected as 28,432 kl/year and 2,588 tons/year, respectively. The foreign currency saved by the implementation of this project. will be 44 milion US Dollars in total, of which 38 million. US Dollats is contributed by the power generation project. In the final analysis, the project is assessed as reasonable and viable from viewpoints of market and the ‘availability of raw ‘material feed gas. Most of the facilities intended for use by this project have actually been’ used in Indonesia and the generating facility of the this project are mainly the savings of diesel oil to be replaced by us Gual-fuel engine generator has proven itself technically viable ‘Therefore, in implementing this project in Jambi district, it can be stated that there will be no technical obstacles other than the normal and foreseeable works which can be overcome by the ‘cooperation and dedicated efforts of a group of competant engineers. From viewpoints of finance and economy, if the gas price is set below 2.1 US§/ MMBTU and the soft loan as described in the financial analysis is applied, the proposed power plant can be operated independently in terms of finance, as a separate entity. The LPG recovery project is small in scale and @ program dependable to the power plant project; however it has significance from the viewpoint of conservation and effective utilization of precious natural resources.In the light of the results of the study coupled with the social and regional significance of the project, the study team members for this Feesibility Study are convinced themselves that this project should be promoted and implemented as quickly as possible. Because the detailed data concerning the gas reservoir are of confidential nature for PERTAMINA, the owner of the gas fields, and sufficient data are not made available to the study team, the technical evaluation and discussion on the gas reserves are based fundamentally on engineering asstimption and judgment. Furthermore, this project uses Sengeti gas reservoir as the only gas resource, thus the recoverable reserve of the gas, the gas production plan and gas compositions have crucial influence on the entive project. Therefore, in proceeding with the actual implementation of the project, a detailed survey on gas re- servoirs will be needed as the first step of the work. It is also necessary to establish an appropriate organization for pro- ject execution after in-depth discussions are conducted among BPPT, the Provincial Government of Jambi, PERTAMINA and PLN.3. THE CURRENT CONDITION OF JAMBI PROVINCE Summary of Jambi Province Jambi Province, located nearly in the middie of the Island of Sumatra, has an area of approximately .400 sq.km, and consists of Jambi City and five regeneies: Batang Hari, Bungo Tebo, Sarolangun Bankgo, Kerinei, and Tanjung Jabung. ‘The total population: is approximately 1.8 million as of 1986, and. population density is approximately 34 per sq.km. ‘The average population growth rate from 1980 to 1986 was approximately 3.7% per year, indicating quite a high rate compared to the Indonesian average of 2.3% per year: ‘The rate is high because Jambi Province is designated as a prefer- ential province for transmigration, and is progressively - absorbing migrants from overpopulated areas such as Java, Madura, Bali Island and so on: The climate-is generally tropical and humid, and with the exception of the mountaneous zone (Kerinei regeney), the highest temperature for the area is 32°C and the lowest. temperature is 23°C. ‘The annual rainfall is 2,000 to 2,800 mm, In general, the dry season is from May through October and the rainy season is November through April ‘The Batang Hari River (total length: 1,740 kim) runs through Jambi Province, and many people live along this viver. Jambi City is a developed city with a population of 280,000, 140 km upstream from this river's mouth. Government offices, markets, and the major residential areas are on the south side of the river. ‘The city roads are well-maintained. By contrast, the north bank area of the river is prone to floods, and thus only has houses with raised floors in seat- tered places, and the roads are hardly maintained. Since there are no bridges in the area, barges and boats are the only means of trans- porting vehieles or anything to the other bank. Separation by the river is one cause of the delayed development of the north bank area. ‘A bridge is under construction on the west end of Jambi City but it probably will still take many years before its completion.a2 B21 The Beonomy of Jambi Province ‘The Economie Overview of Jambi Province As shown in Table 3-1 (Configuration of Jambi Province's GRDP by Sector), the economy of Jambi Province Is heavily dependent on agriculture (including forestry and fisheries), accounting for a high percentage (30.0%) of the GRDP. From Table 3-2, it is also clear that Jambi Province's agricultural percentage is high compared with the contribution of agriculture to-Indonesia's GRDP. Edible crop pro~ duction, mainly shared by rice, developing toward virtual self-suffi- ciency, has the largest share in agriculture. ‘The cash crop produc- tion sueh as gum, palm oil, cinnamon, coffee, ete. is also quite high even when compared with’ the percentage for the whole of Indonesia, Partielly due to Indonesia's forest preservation policies, the con- tribution ratio of forestry is not high, increasing at a rate of only 0.64% in 1983 through 1986. However, plywood board, square timber, and such wood products have high production increases of 14.19 and 16.3% respectively, and contribute to acquisition of foreign currency On the other hand, manufacturing in this province is restricted to things such os gum processing, lumbering, and plywood board which are made from agricultural products, and thus the contribution ratio of manufecturing to GRDP, 10.7% is lower than the national average (12.6%). However, its increase rate is us high as 15.1% p.a. for the period from 1983 to 1986.‘Table 3-1 Configuration of Jambi Province's GRDP by Sector (1983 fixed prices) Thdustrial Seotor i983] T98a 1985, ise, 1. Agriculture 32.14% | 31.85% | 30.51% | 29.96% 2. Mining & Quarrying 13.48 | 13.41 | 13.70 | 13.50 3, Manufacturing 9.38 | 10.18 | 10.73 | 11.98 4. Blectricity & Water Supply 0.50 0.50 0.54 0.87 5. Construction 2.46 2.38 2.25 2.18 6. Trade, Restaurant & Hote! 16.41 | 16.80 | 16.44 | 16.17 7. Transport & Canminicat ion 8.27 1.78 1.44 7.67 8. Banking & Financial Service | 6.38 6.35 6.39 5.86 9. Others 10.98 | 10.70 | 12.00 | 42.11 cE Total io -00 | 10000 —| 00-00 [00-00 (Source: Statistical Office Javbi Province) Table 3-2 Comparison of GRDP Configurations of Indonesia and Jambi Provinee (1985) (1983 fixed prices) a eee _industrial Sector —_|__indonesia | darbi Province | 1, Agriculture 24.22% 30.51% 1-1 Farm food Crop 18.21 19.24 1.2 Farm'non Food/Estaté Crop 3.79 6.33 1.3 Livestock 2.42 1.83 1.4 Forestry 1.10 3.63 1.5 Fishery 1.64 3.47 2, Mining & Quarrying 17,52 13.70 3, Manufacturing 12.61 10.73 4. Blectricity & Water Supply 0.75 0.54 5. Construct ion 5.70 2.25 6, Trade, Restaurant & Hotel 15.42 16.44 7. Transport & Camunicat ion 8.77 7.44 8. Banking & Financial Service 3.05 6.39 9. Others 14.96 12.00 Total T6000 100,00 Source: Statistical Year Book of Indonesia 1986 Statistical Year Book Jambi Province 1986) 3-332-2 Regional Development Plan for Jambi Province Indonesia has been conducting five-year national development plans sinee 1969, and is currently in their fourth five-year. plan for the 1984/85 - 1988/89 period. ‘The current plan, a guideline of each provinces’ problems, and the directions and measures to be taken, is foundéd on the following three principles: (1) Balanced economic development (2) Fair distribut (3) National stability through high economic growth mn of wealth Based on the above national plan, Jambi Province's development plan is being Implemented with BAPPEDA-1, the province's regional develop- ment planning commission, in the forefront. Jambi Province's developmental goals are: (1) The improvement ‘of the standard of living of residents, (2) ‘The transition from a traditional economic structure to a modernized economic structure. ‘Therefore, the development and diversification of agriculture is prioritized even more, since 70% of the employment of residents and approximately 30% of the GRDP is from agriculture. ‘The fourth five- year plan now in progress emphasizes the following programs: the continued, incréased production of foodstuffs; promotion of planta~ tions, mainly through the NES (Nucleus Estate and Simaltholder) program for the increased production of palm oil; promotion of. live stock production; promotion of fisheries; and promotion of industries which use farm products and lumber resources, In order to ald these industry-promotion programs, societal resources such es roads, harbors, and bridges as well as communications, and electricity, and education, are being improved,‘Table 3-3 shows Jambi Province's fourth five-year plan annual growth target by sector and the actual growth rate for three years. ‘Table 3-3 Jambi Province's Fourth Five-Year Plan Annual Growth Target and Actual Growth Rate Planned ‘Retual Industrial Sector 1. Agricul ture 4.0% 2. Mining & Quarrying 2.0 64 3. Manufacturing 7.0 15.1 4. Blectricity & Water Supply 17.0 10.9 5. Construction 15.0 1.8 6. Trade, Restaurant & Hotel 9.0 5.5 7, Transport & Communication 6.0 3.4 8. Banking & Financial Service 20.0 3a 8. Others 10.0 9.6 Total 6.0 Ba (Source: Statistical Office Jambi)33 B31 ‘The Energy Situation of Jambi Provinee Past Primary Energy Consumption and Future Prospects With the exception of wood-related energy such as charcoal and fire- wood, Jambi Provinee has up to now expanded mostly petroleum related energy as its primary energy.’ Since at present electricity is secondary energy generated from diesel fuel, {t also depends on petroleum-related energy. Table 3-4 and Figure 3-1 display the past primary energy consume- tion in Jambi Province. From them, the following can be inferred: ) Gasoline consumption has been increasing annually by an average of approximately 7%, but its share of the total primary energy sources has been at a constant level of 7%. (2) Kerosene consumption has been inereasing at a small annual rate, averaging approximately 2%, and its share of the total primary energy sources may even decrease (from 12.4% in 1982 to 10.3% in 1986). (3) Diesel fuel consumption is the largest among petroleum-related energy sources, and is increasing annually by an average of 9%, and consumption for electricity generation has been increasing by a high rate of 16%, in particular. However, the share of diesel fuel among-the sources of primary energy has been con- stant at approximately 27%,‘Table 3-4 Past Primary Energy Consumption in Jambi Province Fiscal Tear Gasoline (a) 21,515 21.458 SLMS 32,4 38,168 (bilLlon seal) 281.1 286.1 281.8 78.8 016 (Stare in Total) (3) Ta 66 ta 10 tl erosene (a) 46,598 46,566 45,316 ana 48,980 (bilLion eal) a7 ad 403.3 398.2 48 (Share in Total) (3) itd 1s 07 10.0 10.3, Diesel Of (KL) 113,199 114,901 188,300 (bition eal) 996.1 LOL Aino (Share in Total) (%) md for Power Generations (KL) for Others. (a) Fuel 1 (a) 19,866 28,761 28,600 35,408 48,200 (billion feat) 198.7 288.2 283.1 350.5 4219 (Share in Total) () urs Ww 0.0 0.0 9.0 0 318.7 (bildton feat) 0.0 oo 00 00 38 . 0.0 0.0 On (Share in Total) (%) Sub Total (bidLion Beal) 6BL2 881.9 8782085 2,88 (share in Total) (X) areoalins—(t) (billion fal) 258.2 283.9 mg 288.4 301.7 (Share in Total) (8) Firewoodsess (cubic seter) 914,000 $44,000 992,000 (billion feal) 182.7 (Share in Total) (s) 4 Sub Total (DiI ow eal) 1,668.8. 1,17. 1,805.6 LBP 1,960.9 (Share in Total) (%) 43.7 4 a8 anh 45.4 Total (billion feal) 9,044.9 9,508.6 9,781.0 3,.979.6 ATA (Share in Total) (4) 100.0 100.0 100.9 100.0 100.0 Hote: + These figites are estinated from the unit consusption rate of the power generation in Janbi Clty. s+ ‘hese Figures are of the Industrial sector,snd the Elgere In 1986 1s estinated by extrapolation. ser These flgures are estinated based on a 2.0 Se/aoath/capita charcoal unit consuaption cate. vove These figures are estinated based on a 0.6 cubic neter/year/eapita firevood unit consuaption rate, Energy conversion factors used are the following: 1 iter of Gasoline = 8,600 cal 1 Alter of Kerosene = 8,900 Seal 1 After of Diesel Of1 = 8,800 feat 1 liter of Fuel O11 = 9,900 Scal 1 Ag of LPG = 11,900 Beal. 1 Wg of Charcoal = 7,000 Kal 1 eable reter of Firewood = 1,540 thousand HealBESSY Fuel O11 jon in Jambi Province Figure 3-1 Past Primary Energy Consumpti(a) (5) (8) om ) Data on the consumption of fuel oil is only available for that of the industrial sector, and the 1986 records were not available, but the average annual growth rate from 1982 through 1985 was very high (approximately 21%). Its percentage among the total primary energy sources is also increasing: from 5.9% in 1982 to 9.9% in 1986. Sinee LPG has been started marketing only since about 1984, its percentage among the total primary energy sources is small, but it is increasing rapidly (the actual performance of 318.7 t in 1986 grew to 692.5 t in 1987 (not. shown on ‘Table 3-4). The average annual growth rate of petroleum-related energy sources, including LPG, is approximately 9%, and its percentage among the total primary energy sources is it from 50.3% in 1982 to 54.6% in 1986). weveasing (sharé grew Data on the consumption of wood-related energy sources was not available, but according to estimates based on very broad hypotheses, wood-related sources account for approximately half of the total primary energy sources. The share Is decreasing though, as seen in the decline from 49.7% in 1982 to 45.4% in 1986. Firewood is the most used form of wood-related energy source in Jambi Province, accounting for approximately 40% of the total primary energy sources. ‘This percentage is decreasing yearly, however, reflecting the change in the province's structure of energy consumption. From the above, the following conclusions ean be drawn concerning the economic condition and structure of energy consumption of Jambi Province (a) The consumption of petroleum-related energy sources will in- crease while the consumption of wood-related energy sources will decrease,33-2 (b) Reflecting the changing household energy consumption structure, the growth rate of kerosene consumption will be slow down, and consumption may even start to decline, (c) As long as diesel-generated power. plants increase in Jambi Province, diesel fuel consumption will increase mainly in propor tion to the increase of electricity consumption. (a) Fuel oii cons growth rate of the industrial sector, the main user of fuel oi, but the ‘annual growth rate would still be at least around 8%, mption may stow: down in direct proportion to the (e) Since consumption of LPG has just begin, a high growth rate compared to other cnergy sources is expected for some time. Energy Resources of Jambi Province (1) Petroleum and Natural Gas Jambi Province has a group of oll fields called the "Jambi oil fields". They were developed by NIAM {Nerderlandisehe indische Aardolie Maatschappij (Dutch-Indonesian Petroleum Co.)}, and oil Was first struck at Betung ofl field, about 50 km west-southwest of Jambi City, in 1923. This was followed by the discoveries of ‘Tempino and Bajubang oil fields in 1931, ‘Table 3-5 shows oper ators that were or are currently doing petroleum exploration in Jambi Provinee and their contract areas. Table 3-5 Operators and Contraet in Jambi Province is for Petroleum Exploration Operators Contract: Areas Asemera Oi1 Indonesia ‘Tarp ino Chevron Joni South Jambi B huffeo Hangunjaya-Kapahi an Jambi O11 Development danbi A Jambi Shell BV North East Jembi PERTAMINA donb 3-10A considerable amount of natural gas has also been’ discovered either with petroleum (i.e, associated gas) or by itself (i.e. dry gas) at the areas mentioned above, ‘The main gas fields among these areas include Kuang, Bajubang, ‘Tempino, Kenali Asam, Sengeti (the gas field for this project), and Setiti. Data on the oil and gas reserves in Jambi Province was not available, but the oil and gas reserves for the entire South Sumatra area ineluding Jambi Province are reported in ‘Tables 3-6 and 3-7, respectively. ‘Table 3-6 Estimated Oil Reserves in South Sumatra (As of January 1985) (Unit: Million barrels) Original Got irmed | Recovery Basin Oil Cumitative | Confirmed | Ultimate | Efficiency ______| in Place _| Production | Reserves [Recovery | _(%) South Sumatra 1,075 1,499 208 1,704 24.1 ‘Source: US Department of Energy, information Administration ‘able 3-7 Recoverable Gas Reserves in South Sumatra (Unit: Billion cubic feet) r Cont inned Remaining | Probablet | Futuret* Total Reserves’ | Reserves | Discoveries | (D) = (A)+(C) (a) (B). on oh PERTAMINA 11 3,833 1,208 1,090 4,923 Bx-Stanvac 393 an 280 673 Asemera 36 50 28 64 ‘Total 4,262 1,366 1,398 5,660 Source: ~“MIGAS indonesia Gas Utilization Study Final Report — Note: * Estimated by MIGAS-PERTAMINA ” Estimated by BEICIP s-uh(2) Other Energy Resources Jambi Province is considered one of the provinces of Indonesia that has not been fully developed, and the discovery of abundant resources is expected. ‘This includes the development of energy resources such as hydro-power and geo-thermal energy being con- sidered In’Kerinel and Satolangun’ Bangko regencies respectively. Rio Tint of Great Britain also explored and discovered approx- imately 70 million tons of recoverable coal around the Bangko area in 1973, Table 3-8 shows coal reserves as reported in the fourth five-year plan (Repelita 1V) original draft. Since over 10 billion tons of coal exist in the promising coal fields of Sumatra Island, such as Umbilin, Bukit Assam and others, the existence of abundant coal in Jambi Province is considered highly probeble. Table 3-8 Confirmed Coal Reserves in Indonesia Coal Field Confirmed Reserves (thousand tons) Unilin 100,000 Bukit Assan 200, 000 South Sumatra 10,000,000 South and East of Kalimantan Under Explora Source: Repeiita Iv Draft As mentioned above, the exploration in Jambi Province for energy resources other than petroleum and natutal gas, such as coal, has just seratched the surface, and the general outline will become clear as the exploration proceeds. Even if the existence of abundant energy resources is confirmed, it would be necessary to set up an infrastructure which can make practical use of therm. 3-12343 3 ‘The Energy Policy of. Jambi Province According to the fourth five-year plan (Repelita IV), the measures for ineveasing the energy demand in Jambi Province are being considered as part of an overall national energy policy. Petroleum has been the most important energy source of Jambi Province. Since it is a source of foreign currency, the national energy policy stipulates the con- servation of petroleum, Jambi Province is endowed with a lot of potential energy such as hydro-power and geothermal energy. Research into. their possible utilization is planned under the fourth five-year plan, in an effort to meet the increasing energy demand in Jambi Province with alternative forms of energy. In terms of hydro-power, Kerinei regency with the Raya mountain area, and Sarolangun Bangko regency with the Maru River area have the potential to generate 232 MW and 85 MW, respectively. Plans ere also being made for the practical use of an approximately 1.33 billion eubie meters of re~ maining recoverable natural gas reserves in the Sengeti area of the Batang Hari river district. (Plan for the practical use of this natural gas are being considered in this project.) ‘The Indonesian government established the following guidelines for diversifying energy within ten years, in connection with this national energy policy: 1) ‘The internal supply of petroleum will be regulated, and with the exception of meeting petrochemicel needs and supplying areas which cannot use non-petroleum sources of onergy, petroleum will be exported as much as possible. 2) Natural gas shall be allotted partially for domestie needs through city gas, power generation, and petrochemical needs, and partially for export 3) Coal will be used as fuel for power generation and heavy industry, or converted into gas for household and cily gas use. It will also be exported. 3-134) Solar energy and wind energy shall be developed in accordance with domestic needs and technological conditions. 3-14ad 41-1 4, MARKET STUDY Market Study on Electricity Electricity Supply and Demand Situation ‘This Chapter summarizes the situation of ‘the electricity supply and demand of the entire Jambi Province and then of Jambi City and sur- rounding areas. a Electricity Supply and Demand Situation of Jambi Province (a) Hleetricity Consumption Structure of Jambi Province Jambi Province has a population of 1,800,000 and 380,000 households in 1986 (fiseal year), and only approximately 9% (35,000) of these households was electrified. Electrified houscholds in Jambi City and surrounding areas numbered 26,700 the same year, ‘This means that nearly eighty per~ cent of the total number of electrified households. in. dambi Province are located in Jambi City and its surrounding areas. Tach sector accounted for the following proportions of the approximately 57.0 GWh of electricity consumed in 1986 (fiscal year): residential sector, 51.3%; commercial sector, 13.4%; public and other sector, 12. 1%; and industrial sector, 23.3%. There are notable increases in consumption in the industrial sector (38.4% p.a.) in recent electricity consumption trends of each sector shown in Table 4-1. Summaries of electricity consumption by sector of Jambi Province follow @ Residential Sector ‘The number of consumer-households has been inereas- ing annvally by an average of approximately 23.9%, but the yearly electricity consumption per household has been diminishing. ‘This has been explained as the‘Table 4-1 Past Population, Electric Energy Demand & Real GRDP Indices Record by Sector of Jambi Province Fiscal Year 1982—-—«21989=«19BL_——1985———*98G-—AragoeArragors Residential Sector Population 1,824,104 1,572, f01 1,659,688 1,718,496 1,795,180 - Growth Rate (8) 2.2 ‘319 ‘5.153.794.8548 8.80 oof Household 318,206 826,579 345,626 952,815 $81,204 - - Household Size 41 482 4 488 ATL = 8.9 Wo, of Consuscrs 14,700 18,936 22,857 28,849 14,523 - Growth Rate. (2) RA 18.82 20.11 25.22 20,028.88 18.94 Electr. fatlon(s) 4.62 5.80 6.6L BIB 08 Unit Consump. (Kh) 1,185.2 1,107.0 919.7 900.6 ASL = - Enerey Consunp.(GFh) 16.98 21.18 22.99 05.98 19.28 = Growth Rate (8) HA 486 5.87 1602 162A Comercial Sector fo, of Consueers 24483 2,782 3,071 349040 = - Grosth Rate (3) MA 189 10.89 13.64 15.59 1.78 12.80 nergy Consuep.(GHh) S$.) 6.48 6.887.088 - Groetk Rate. (3) NA 6.855.976.6549 10.58 10.98 Constituent Ratio WA, 1.09 0.9L O.4L 0,990.73 74 Sector GRDP(1883=100) 94,31 100.00 108,84 112.91 117.58 - Grosth Rate (2), 566.068.9942 5.88 5.67 Elastisity HA 44502 Le? Lat 18788 Public & Other Sector 4o. of Consaners Growth Rate. (8) nergy Consunp. (Gih) Grorth Rate (3) su to 88,085 1,0 K 46 Ha, Constituent Ratlo 35.09 6.80 Ra BAL WT 2.8918. 8.TE 469 S07 64468 - 5.98.99 19.95 6A 0.2 24k 09 OTT 0.18. 100.00, 109.48 123.31 81.70 = - 407 3.48 18.17 8.80 8.8.08 Sector GROP(1983=100) Growth Rate (8) Elastisity 182 412 040.901. Industrial Sector 4o, of Consumers eM Ak - - Groth Rate (8) NA 8.93 ILS 9.82 LSD 3.89 4.09) Anerey Consanp. (GM) 3.62 4.08.2 - Growth Rate (2) HA 1281 50.84 62.98 6.38.00 Sector GROP(1S83=100) 91.41 100.00 11513 128.87 192.95 : Groath Rate (8) 13.03 9.40 15.13 11.93 18.22.62 13.54 Elastisity KA 187 3.08 5.08148 282.92. 179 22,621 26,921 93,862 40,051 ~ HA 76.16 18,08 28.64 19.39 22.25 Bar 35.99 AOS. g.09 rowth Rato (%) NA 2128 12.0 22.91 19.68 10.26 ‘GRO? (1988100) 94.82 190.00 106.12 12.72 9.82, ‘Growth Rate (3) BIT $a 6.12. 6,228.86 8.9 Elastisity : Yote : + Exponential average Source : PLA Hilayah 1¥ Cabang Janbh aritheetical average Kantor Statistik Propins! Jaabtremarkable increase of small~demand consumers. Electricity consumption has been growing annually by fan average of 14.6%, Gi) Commercial Sector ‘The number of consumers have been stendily increas- Ing annually by an average of about 12.8% but the growth of electricity consumption has slowed down since 1984 (fiscal year): the average ennual growth vate from 1984 (ditto) through 1986 (ditto) was 5.6%. This also has been explained as the Increase of small consumers. (iii) Publie and Other Sector ‘The average annual growth of the number of con- sumers was very high (19.6%) and electricity con- sumption has also been growing at a relatively high rate, averaging 11.3%. Gv) Industrial Sector In spite of a low average annual growth in the number of consumers (3.9% to 4.4%), electricity consumption has been growing at a very high rate, averaging 38.4%. ‘This has been explained by this sector's large~ demand consumers, in contrast with other sectors, The growth rate of this sector's GRDP averaged a high 13.6%; because of the extremely high growth in electricity consumption mentioned above, the energy elasticity was also. an exceptionally high average of 2.8. (b) Power Generating Facilities in Jambi Province with. the exception of self-generating facilities at indus~ trial plants, Jambi Provinee's power is supplied by the Jambi branch (Cabang Jambi) of Region 1V (Wilayah 1V) of 4-3) the State Electricity Corporation (PLN). ‘The power trans- mission and distribution systems of each area are not con- nected each other by transmission lines; they are all independent systems that generate power by diesel. As shown in Table 4-2 which summarizes the power generating facilities of Jambi Province, there small-size power plants in Jambi Province. ‘The total in stalled capacity of these plants as of July 1987 is ap- proximately 47.6. MW, and the total available capacity (capacity of actually possible power generation whieh takes into account capacity decrease ((PLN's annual declining percentage estimate: 2.5%)) due to age deterioration) is 42.9 MW. About 86% of this capacity Is of power plants installed in Jambi City and other power plants only pro- duce approximately 14%. (Note: The facilities of the Pasar power plant of Jambi City (installed capacity 1,920. kW: 800 KW; Worthington and 1,120 kW; Skoda) are virtually unusable and thus are excluded), are fifteen medium and Power Supply and Demand Record in Jambi Province Table 4-3, which shows the past record of electric power supply and demand in Jambi Province, is a compilation of data from. the separate. transmission and distribution systems scattered about in the province, According to the table, Jambi Provinee's installed power generation capacity increased from 26,090 kW in 1985 (fiscal year) to 47,760 kW in 1986 (ditto). ‘This is “due to the establishment of the Payo Selincah: power plant (installed capacity: 5,218 kW x 5 units) in Jambi City. The regions of Jambi Province other than Jambi City and its surrounding areas began full- scale operation of ‘power plahts‘in about 1981, Consequently, the data for matters concerning power supply and demand in 1981 (fiscal year) is not a complete survey for the entire Jambi Province. ‘The electricity -consumption for the province has been at approximately 80% of the electricityTable 4-2 Outline of Power Generating Facilities in Jambi Province Note: These figures are the figures as of July, 1987. 4-5 Name “Wo. | Tstailed |Availabie | Operation Bherey of of |Capacity | Capacity | Commencement | Product lon Power, Station | Unit | (sw) (x) (Year) _|{kwh/Vonth) PLID Kasang 1 | 1,340 1,000 1995 108,510 2] 1,340 1,000 1975, 102, 180 3 | 2.205 1,750 1977 331,846 4 | 2)500 2,000 1976 0 5 | 2,500 2,100 1983 0 6 | 2;500 2,100 1983, 203,600 7 | 2,500 2,100 1984 51,600 Sub-total 14,975 | 121050 - 797,736 PLT Payo Selineah| 1 | 5,218 5,000 1987 183,790 2 | 5,218 5,000 1987 2,221,560 3 | 5,218 5,000 1987 0 4 | 5.28 5,000 1987 1,756,900 5 | 9,428 5,000 1987 1,361,480 Sub-total 26,090 | 25,000 - 5,493,730 Total 12_| 41,085 | 37,050 - 6,201, 466 PLD Muara Bungo a] 1,950 1,640 1979-1982 | 286,200 PLID Kuala Tungkal| 6 | 1,960 1,845 1982 326,800 PLID Bangko 2 540 500 1982 144,770 PLID Saro Langun 2 440 400 NA. 72,920 PLID Muara Bulian | 2 600 600 1983 130, 880 PLID Muara Sabek 2 200 180 1982 25,880 PLID Muara ‘Tebo 2 200 98 NA, 23,900 PLID Sei Bangkal 1 40 40 NA. 5,608 PLID Nipah Panjang] 1 220 200 NA 36,308 PLAID Meresam 1 100 100 NA. 3,055 PLID Rt. Panjang 1 100 100 NA 10,245 PLID Rt. Pandan 1 100 100 NAL 1,950 PLD Jerbatani Mas | 1 40 40 NAL 924 Total 26 | 6,490 5,848 - 1,069,440 Grand Total 38 | 47,555 | 42,893 - 7,360,906 Souree: PLN Wilayah IV Cabang Jambiany 200q AT wAET}A ST + sams ‘eo'vey oF OER ESS"TH OgorbNR‘se oUZ'GES' 12 O89"TSE‘OZ OOD LZr‘et oO'TEL‘HT aGO‘séE"eT Teo'or ast asta an'2a = TegtLT = Ts0eT «gator iss ‘szamnsuop 0 “oy re se ee ses sor roe og rus ‘ s0y984 DRT ea'e ue’ Taetg guages uste = otr’g ust wD poy sey sor'st —seu'custoT ste dus*@ = wT'y = gs's ta (aa) pe0T HPag eet rH ove eo oa sat sz ver (3). oore(¥)/((a)+(0)) 609'Te0"TT ee‘0s2"s FrO‘ees'e e0'R8E'Z Uze‘eTR"9 SosteLaty SS6"FG0'S Lea‘9Te'S $9860 ue re ve Le oe re ve ve ‘ oor 6L'SHC'Z BHR*GGOZ OFL“ERG'T CLL OEN'T SOTTHT'E Seaea0'T esP'eee —Uae“9TE ——(A)AHAR)_woyREENSIO FH te ce 08 Ve v6. ree re oh ft core Shu'7e0' IS eS" OLT'0S SoF'eTO‘TH F20'N6'se see‘OuT‘oe she‘seT‘g2 TEO‘ETE'TZ See'pTa'st — (a)(gAR) soTadansuoy sBzeUg SST'Tee"Cs TEP'BTS"O9. seT‘TSC'TS 6BR'eea's} Lee*BEI“eD Gez'geS"TS gUTGHC' IZ OUBSHE ES (H)(NAR) uoFTORDOIE ss0Ay cou'ty —ua'T@—sagtTz ase ste's] sess cw aoutaog iquiee ur puswed pue ATddng seMog o1NeTE Jo piovoy ised -H AIGELproduction for the past five years. ‘The average self- consumption rate of power plants for the past eight years was approximately 3.5%, The average sum of the above figure and the loss rate due to power transmission, distri- bution, and transformation for the same period came to about 20.2%. ‘These sum figures fluctuate but are gradually diminishing. The annual growth rate for the peak load from 1979 (fiscal year) through 1986 (ditto) increased at an average of about 18.0%, The average load factor for the same seven-year period was approximately 53.3%, Changes in installed ca: pacity, peak load, and mean load in Jambi Province are shown in Figure 4-1, (2) Electricity Supply and Demand Situation of Jambi City and Sur- rounding Areas (a) Jambi City is spread over the banks of the Batang Hari river, the second largest river in the Island of Sumatra. ‘The river embraces the Pasar Jambi ward, the commercial area located nearly in the center of the city. On the north side of the iver, there is an agricultural area, on the west and south side, a residential area, and on the east side and along both benks of the river, a sprawling justefal area, As shown in Table 4-4 (Past Population and Electricity Consumption by Sector of Jambi City and Surrounding Areas), the population and number of households in Jambi City and surrounding areas in 1986 (fiscal year) were 284,000 and 55,000, respectively. Of these 55,000 households, approx imately 49% (27,000) were electrified. Jambi City and surrounding areas are highly electrified compared with the electrification percentage for the whole Jambi Province.sourrosg Iqulep UI PEOT UEaW DUE PLOT Heed ‘AyOedeD parresuy I-7 emBiy iqurep BueqzD AT WeSC Ng 200g (ae2q 180814) 9961 sa6t 861 east zast 19st cast = 6L8T Can) ooeTable 4-4 Past Population & Electricity Consumption Record by Sector of Jambi City and Surrounding Areas Fiseal Tear’ 1982 1988-198 1985188G—Averagor Averagere Resident at Sector Population 790,986 HL,435 249,189 749,480 284,098 : Grovth Rate (%) 163 482 2E O10 188559 Yio, of Household RAL Wl RAL 48,721 64,615 = - Household Size WA OMA WAL 8125.20 - 56 No. of Consumers 13,121 16,30 19,688 24,881 25,6890 = - Growth Rate (3) HA 4.94 20,09 -25,98 7.27 19.42 19,67 Flectr. Ratio (8) WA Nea, SLO? 48,87 = 43.97 Unit Consunp. (8h) 1,242.2 1,170.6 1024-7 936.6 808.6 : Energy Consump.(G#R) 16.30 19.32 20.17 3.30 4.25, + Growth Rate (4) BAS 18.55 0 4AL 15.52 4.05 10.44 10.63 Comercial sector No, of Gonsneers 1,890 2.081 2,289 2,647 2,808 = - Growth Rato. (8) WA, 182 8.95 MB 83 BTS 7.08 Energy Consinp.(Gih) 4.86 5.74 8.91 B.A BIS - Growth Rete 18) HAL 18.2 8025.52 1B 6.07 6.82 Constituent Hatlo = KA. 0,880.68 0.868-0.97 0.58.58 Public & Other Sector No. of Gonsnacrs a - Gromth Rate. (8) HAL T.0512.20 EIS 8.8 nergy Consump. (Wh) 4.0 4485.05 6.04 5.73= : Growth Rate. (3) HA S05 18S 19.28 AIS MB 1.84 Constituent Rate HA 016 2.98 12-102 O04 Industrial Sector No. of Consnaers a a re - Grorth Rate (8) HA 5.83 BIL 673 -BML 8.08“ Enerey Consonp. (Hh) 8.593.675.7798 - Growth Rate (3) HA, 240 57.19 70.50 28.83 96.59 939.29 Total Yo. of Consumers 15,679 9,217, 22,741 28,517 30,112 : Growth Rate (8) RA TST 18.3 25.40 5.59 TTR IT.ST nergy Consugp.(GRh) © 29.08 $8.21 36.92 45.4348. = Growth Rate (3) HA M9 118 28.00 TT 18.88 Hote : © Bxponential average Source PLN Rilayeh IV Cabang Jaabi + Aritimetical average Kantor Statistik Propinst JaabiEach sector accounts for the following proportions of the approximately 48.7 GWh of electricity. consumed In 1986 (fiscal year); residential sector, 49.8%; commercial sector, 12.6%; public and other sector, 11.9%; and industrial, sector, 25.6%, Because of their many industrial plants, Jambi City and surrounding. aeas have an industrial sector percentage 2.3 points higher than the corresponding ratio for the entire Jambi Province. The electricity demand. of the industrial sector displays remarkablé growth Summaries of electricity consumption by sector of Jambi City and surrounding areas follow. () Residential Sector ‘The number of consumer-households have been in- creasing steadily at an annual rate averaging 19.4%, but the annual electricity consumption per household has been diminishing, resembling the entire Jambi Province (see Table 4-1). ‘This has been explained as the jerease of smali-demand consumers. This diminishing trend is slowing down considerably, so an eventual change to an increasing trend similar to other countries ean be expected, The electricity consumption has been growing at an average annual rate of 10.4%. (i) Commereial Sector ‘The number of consumers has been growing at an average annual rate of 6.8%, about 6 points lower than the rate for the whole of Jambi Province. Electricity consumption has also shown sluggish growth: with the exception of high growth rate in 1982, the average annual growth rate from 1984 (fiscal year) through 1986 (ditto) wes 2.4%. 4-10(b) (it) Public and Other Sector ‘The consumers have been increasing rapidly at an average annual rate of 12.8%, and electricity con- sumption has been also increasing correspondingly at an average annual rate of 7.5%. (iv) Industrial Sector ‘The growth vate of consumers in the industrial sector has been declining in spite of the steady increase seen in other sectors; the average annual growth rate.is negative four percent (-4%). In con- trast, electricity consumption is increasing steadily, at an average annual rate of 36.6%. ‘This has been explained as the decrease of small-demand consumers coupled with the increase of consumption by the large- demand consumers. Power Generation Facilities in Jambi City and Surrounding Areas Exeluding - self-generati mn facilities, Jambi City and the surrounding areas have three power plants, Pasar, Kasang, and Payo Selineah, controlled by the Jembi branch (Cabang Jambi) of PLN Wilayah IV. Since Pasar, the oldest of these plants, is currently not operating (Pasar's units No.1, No.2, and No.3 began operation in 1953, 1964, and 1965 respectively), the two Kusang and Payo Selincah plants are supplying the power to Jambi City and surrounding areas, as shown in Table 4-2. As stated in the above table, the installed capacity and available capacity of Jambi City and surrounding areas as of 1987.are 41,065 kW and 37,050 kW, respectively.() Electricity Supply and Demand Record of Jambi City and Surrounding Arees Table 4-5 shows past record of electricity supply and demand in Jambi City and surrounding areas. According to the table, the installed power generation capacity of Jambi City and surrounding areas increased from 15,775 kW in 1985 (fiscal year) to 41,065 kW in 1986 (ditto). ‘This is the sum inereese of the installed capacity of the newly con- structed Payo Selineah power plant (26,090 kW) with the virtually unusable installed capacity of Pasar plant (800 kW) subtracted, With the exeeption of the high growth rate in 1985 (fiscal yeat) (annual growth rate 23.0%), the electricity eonsump- tion of Jambi City and surrounding areas has been at approx- imately the same level (81%) in relation to production for the past five years. ‘The self-consumption rate of plants hos been gradually decreasing from 1983 (fiscal year). It went below the 3% level for the first time In 1986 (fiscal year) due to improvements, reflecting the recent establish- ment of Payo Selineah power plant. ‘The average self-con- sumption rate for the last eight years is about 3.3%. The average sum of the self-consumption rate and loss rate during operation (electricity transmission, distribution, and transformation) for the same period is about 19.1%. ‘These sum values fluctuate but are declining in general. The average annual growth rate of the peak toad from 1979 (fiscal year) through 1986 (ditto) is about 14.5%. ‘The power plant installed capacity, peak load, and mean load of Jambi City and surrounding areas are shown in Figure 4-2. 4-12your Sueqep ay WRserTA NTE + aean0g owe'zss'ae o1Z'Fes'9s oto‘o80'TE aioe ums'@ tute ates aust ets ree sss re sm'9 gees IT'S wer'y oostzr = agt'oT ues osu ser ear vn oat eu Zie*6st'6 osp'eg0'e gea'Tes's coe't96's saT'sHs'@ v7 re se se ve 69e'259'T 109'209"T st9*zuS'T gTa"ste'T shu ‘F90'T oe ve re one ven Sst‘B99"er er'ccr‘sh oue'776‘90 ceN‘eoe‘ee HER"UHN"ST HEO'SOL'GS, h1'280°2 -GLL‘TZR*yy Tue'BRS'OY TSz"sTI‘9E esoo'ty SuL'eT.—suutst—gte"et_ geez 9861 S961 i861 8951 2961 e0e'se gu" g0etT2 “yesng (U7 J0 Avvoedeo porreastr ayy uo'Tsu'#T ono*ses*et TW eestor BUL'S ors oe re vse ome. aust os'g ass One si ata we LigtT90"> 96'hen's seetgTe's re ve caatero'T ~esh'e69 12e'gt6 ee oe eH soe'uss'sz Te0°ete'12 9ee'vle‘et 3606890 S9P'he‘Le Oca SHe Te see's soe's set 196 cnet suet sapeyoxe azn8ry STuL + + at0y }) Aryedey s0eryHeg SIBELSUD) J ‘0K C3) oqaeg PROT (on prey wea (a) peor ¥Raq (8) cOTevI/Liadet (aca) sesso] corey {o)Ctus) vorsemsteg gras ) OTx(¥) (8) (04H) wopsamnstoy 22220 (W)(WAR) —-MOpIONPOIg ss0ID (ax) Aryoedep parrersu 22a] TSE seasy Surpunosing » AYO Iquiee ul puewied y A[ddng JeMog OINOSIY Jo ploosy ised G-h FIGBL -13seeay Sunpunosing 3 A719 rqurer UT PLOT UeoW PAL peo yvOg ‘KyoEdeD peTTmsU] g-p Oma tourer ZuvteD AL UekEIIM Nid :3om0g (see, Leos! s) 998i ee! 5g8i eg6l 2861 196! 986i 6L61 oroate Electricity Demand Forecast This Section forecasts the electricity demand of Jambi City and sur- rounding areas directly related to this project, and then of the entire Jambi Provi (1) Electricity Demand Forecast for this Project ‘As mentioned above, there ate no large transmission networks in Jambi Province; the electricity demand is concentrated in Jambi City and surrounding areas, ‘Therefore, subsequent forecasting is premised on the electricity supply target area restricted to Jambi City and surrounding areas. (a) Preconditions: (i) The electricity supply target area of this Project: ‘The electricity supply target area is rest ed to Jambi City and surrounding areas, as mentioned above. (ii) Forecast period: Untit year 2000. Forecast method: ‘Two electricity demand forecasts (by summation of sectors) compiled by the head office (Pusat) and by Region IV (Wilayah IV) of the State Electricity Corporation (PLN) respectively are reviewed from an even more practical standpoint. (iv) Content under reconsideration: Various factors of determination underlying the above two electricity demand forecasts compiled by PLN-Pusat and PLN-Wilayah IV (see Tables 4-6 and 4-7) are reconsidered, and six cases are chosen among the possible combinations (three resembling to 4-15‘9671240220 9 9°86 ve ‘rio'ss sr3e 5 rer Ts $65 st gets 6°0L 8 se 9667 re et oor OT OT oT ru Soy $785 FTG 0°06 a a) s10'S SUB'rH 66°T Te Sls 8°98 § $ 8 sist Love Deze 68st west 886t § ere test rst : poor 99g Ce ee (3) aozoeg peoy VO GsOT ITS ee] ses FO soupesg zt ost SST OT STOUT RIT SET sq a0eT4ss9950] Ost gE tT OUT at steT 00 (x) yey yae0a9 ve 8S TUS PUSS ee ty (tuo) uso) Grong TO ay rk ee a eC Oe C@ oO SET Oe Se OOO Buoy eayadey ‘£23s0p07 $6 8B BLL DSBS (Akg) ams Hog Bag oT OT OT OT OT OT OT ‘pany gUangTystog Sx0uN0 FOTOS reg SL 89 FS BS” (Maa) rdamsteg Bran ot oot OT OT oat OT Oryey q7aRgT]8H0) ‘pporeHo) se ste bos T'S OO tee rdanstag 332g Tugs 1°98 SFM BURSTS OS TUBE densi) aun oes vse Tee TTS ehh SSE ya Gee's cesses sega uus'ea O9F's2 os‘re ons'2e SUC) JO°O a a sD (2.or}progesnog 5 8 8 8 8 $ s provesnog/zassag soe 1 8 8 T66t yema nia Sq svezy Suipunosms pue Aug quer Jo ise9s0g PULA ANDINA gp stVeL 4-16AD HYAVITB TE Tay a nS a a a a a Sr a ht (ax) pe07 ¥804 se wig 8s (x) doxoeg peor 8 0 crocs soe O'siz 9H FMT TSH ge gut BOT Tut Fe See 2 Tes (aug) *y0poag seus oot et ost O'eT oer OT OT OeT eT OT OST Ost UT. Sat (8) 80. BRTURSaBSOT sé 6 9 OM OT rh bt Oat ST eM BH oT ete od (3) 2984 apao9 Tug tm ete SHE QSL TT EUS Tse Sent eM Tee ogres BES Se (uaa) dens Brew rr a a is a a Ys eS ee sueunsugg 40 “Oy Tee est SRT LT 9'sOr $zS SOR EES RS SEH TH Gree grat TST BIT (wag) aston rong ess ees 60S STU LETS LST OTT T'S. O'0. (Mag) ae aaTaCe9 ie se eT eT T TTT SuaHRSHg 40 “OW 1p st osm sot sat rit se ore oreo 89 9 gS CaaghraanstNg zou ro. 0 00d nS so 8b 08 ongey agra suey wore sau'z Hist see'z | ge Wer pT beet suT't e618 sueEEsueg 30 “Of suayay 4 9FT0Nd be vet FT eT Or FE 8 LST Caag) eanstog ABsoug ot OT Ot ot OT QT OT OT. OT OT OT OT 00 oryey auacgyasz09 SHe'eT SLIT Gus‘OT OHS H90°9 ms's tiny Lett gau'a Then ste'a uss" ogn'z svanrsueg Jo “0x ‘eToiaHK ek en a Se A Q°OOK'T 6°Sa0'T “OvhUD'T Z'TSO'E. gvoho'L Tr9eo'T secur STTO'T ops 9185 BSI «498 c'eae TG rots (uas)-éanstop sp OSL FOL 8S 98 TTT: EB SHRI! SEE LS] Tek ue Fee Hse (ear) stoensuap 20 “oy 8% oe TR Oe FH OW TH Sh 5m oes Ges OTS oes TUS Tse (aorsey “2208 a a es ee a a (6. or)prowesnog SH eee ee ete Sie tees eee eee etree ESSE ae gb Pe eee says provesneg es se gs Sse EES SEBS EBS 3) ane HaAnIS i Od (c.oneoraetedog Ter wepTsay AL URAeIIM NTE Sqseazy Burpunosng pur AUD iqWeP Jo yseooIog pueUIEG AYOINOBE L-b S1GBL 4-37the Pusat report: I-L, 1-M, and 1-H, and three to the Wilayah IV report: 2-b, 2M, and 2-H). Thes cases are compiled in Table 4-8 (Major Assumptions for Blectriclty Demand Forecast of Jambi City and Surrounding Areas). ‘The following are supplementary explanations of the major factors of determination shown in Table 4-8. -a- Population forecast: Statistics from 1979 through 1986 are analyzed using regression analysis. ‘The population forecast results of the exponential regression curve having the highest correlative coefficient (R=0.955) are employed. -b- Household size: Assumed household size is 5.2 per household, based upon statistics shown in Table 4-4 Annual residential electricity consumption per household: According to statistics shown in ‘able 4-4, the lential electricity consumption. per household in Jambi City and surrounding areas annual re: has been diminishing over the years, but is expected to increase like other developing countries. Based upon comparisons with Indo , PLN Pusat and PLN Wilayah I set the fiscal year 2000 annual resident nesia's other oi electricity consumption per household target for Jambi City and surrounding areas at 1,000 kWh and 1,100 kWh respectively; these are employed in this forecast. 4-13(3) an querg 1 s28801 oo oe oot 08 v9 oe we os (72°64) Jano a4pateg suTpaToKe soyoag TeysgsmpuT oT agmy Yomoup QzoKy ese ow ess os os on on on 007 rs so rs rs rs et er 58 29st (s8a6/yy9) 20yoog jwrsgsopuy go SBz0ug aar3éey eo or vo v0 20 ot 80 re 10799. of eRe 40 oTeE aEOEITISION or 0 oT 0 0 or 0 v0 s0qoag Teyoveenoy Jo o732y 24607735199 wort o'r ort ort oor't coo" 00't oot (provastouavasyeuay) 0002 4 qyoresseng Jo 2104 oyadmsuog 7y0 YwHIEL see ot san ot o9 oe ot 08 se 8 2 oe vm 06 03 oe (reed a) suomnsueg TerquopTsey Jo 996g Y2m029 et st ry so xt #8 se 0008-1687 ee 8% xt ve st st st 9861-1651 et ee v8 ae st ae st (0881-9887 er ee tr wr or or eT 1881 story Bulpunosng pue Aig awee Jo IseosI0g PuRWEg Aro}NOeTE zo} suOHduMSsy sole 8p IGEL 4-19-d> Constituent ratio: ‘The constituent ratio is the ratio of the ‘growth rate of the residential electricity demand to the growth rate of the commercial sector and the public and other sector, and is considered as art indication of energy elasticity. According to the statistics for five fiscal years (1982 - 1986), the commercial sector constituent ratio was about 0.6 and the public and other sector ratio was about 0.7, Both these averages are lower than the PLN-Pusat version (commercial: 1.0; public and other: 1.0) and the PLN-Wilayah IV version (commercial: 1.0; public and other: 0.8). Therefore, it is assumed that these averages constitute the minimum figures and the PLN- Pusat figures the maximum figures for this fore~ cast -e- Captive energy: A considerable number of self-generation facili~ ies exist in Jambi City and surrounding areas. Sinee they are expected to eventually become recipients of PLN service, they could be con- sidered latent supply-targets of PLN electricity. PLN calis such electricity, "captive energy." This forecast refers to the separate PLN-Pusat and the PLN-Wilayah IV forecasts on captive energy. £- Industrial sector electricity demand growth rate: This represents the growth rate of industrial sector. electricity consumption excluding captive energy discussed above, and is estimated a 6.0 to 10.0% annual rate. PLN generally compares the electricity demand increase represented in the above-mentioned growth rate and the increaseda electricity supply to those consumers who were waiting to be supplied (called "waiting con- sumers") and makes the larger of the two that year's electricity demand increase excluding captive energy. Since the former has been always larger in Jambi City and surrounding areas, this forecast assumes that the former will be larger every year, Energy loss and self-consumption rate of power plants: According to. statistics shown in Table 4-5, these figures for the Jambi City and surrounding areas are decreasing yearly due to the construe tion of new power transmission and distribution networks and plants. ‘The rate of decrease is higher according to the PLN-Wilayah IV version than the PLN-Pusat version because the former assumes early improvement of power transmission and distribution networks. Figures of either version ave used in this forecast as seen appro: priate chy Load factor: The PLN-Wilayah IV version predicts a seven- point load factor inerease, from 58.0% in 1987 (fiseal year) to 65.0% im year 2000 (ditto), while the PLN-Pusat version predicts only a two-point increase, from 55.0% in 1987 (Fiscal year) to 57.0% in year 2000 (ditto). Sinee the mean change of statistics (a 64.1% to 58.4% range) for the past five years (Table 4-5) is 56.1%, and the economic environment of Jambi City and surround- ing areas is not expected to change greatly, the PLN-Pusat figure (two-point inerease from 55.0% in 1987 (Fiscal year) to 57.0% in year 2000 (fiscal year)} is used in this forecast 4-2() ‘The Results of Electricity Demand Forecast for this Pro- jeot: Figure 4-3 compiles the peak loads in the electricity demand forecast results from six cases (cases I-L, I-M, 1-H, 2-L, 2-M, and 2-H) based on preconditions in (a). This demand forecast chose Cases 1-M and 2-L 2s the most probable among the six. ‘The main reasons are the following: 1) The industrial-sector electricity demand, which has the greatest impact on the electricity demand of Jambi City and surrounding areas, is determined in this fore- cast from the forecasts of captive energy and of the growth rate of above electricity demand excluding captive energy. Since large growth is not expected in the industrial sector of Jambi City and surrounding areas according to current estimates, a 6.0% - 7.0% annual geowth rate for electricity consumption exclud- ing captive energy seems appropriate. 2) Among the six cases, Case I-L was established based on the most conservative standpoints on all factors of determination, so a more realistic estimate is probably larger, 3) A constituent ratio 0.8 or less appears appropriate, considering the averages of past statisties shown in ‘Table 4-4 4) Although the number of electricity consumers in the residential sector showed an annual growth rate over 20% from 1983 (fiscal year) to 1985 (ditto), the growth rate fell to the seven-percent level in 1986 (ditto). Even with changes in the future, it is expected to stabilize to a mark of 8% at most, due to an economic slowdown for the whole of Indonesia caused by factors such as crude oil prices, 4=22(4z94 oo0z seeay Suipimoumg pue A119 iqulep JO ISe0aL0E (PeOT A¥ag) pUBUIEG JMO oINOaIE E-p aMBa ieosta) 6881 2661 LEST 9661 GESI DEST 6ST ESI [661 0861 Ba6I east 2g61 F T ] gesnd Nd + 2 asej — 070 070% 0°06 0-08 CHW) 0-08ables 4-9 and 4-10 show the electricity demand forecast results of Jambi City and surrounding areas based on Case 1-M and Case 24, respectively. (2) Electricity Demand Forecast of Jambi Province As mentioned in (1) “Electricity Demand Forecast for this Project", no large-scale power transmission and distribution network yet exists in Jambi Province, and all areas within the province depend for their power supply on a power system con sisting of independent diesel generators. ‘Therefore, in terms of the electricity demand forecast of Jambi Province, the view that the electricity demand in the province will increase in accord- ance with the expansion of each individual power transmission and distribution system in the province (i.e., increase of elec- trification) seems appropriate. Consequently, it must be recog- nized that the electricity demand of Jambi Province is simply a summation of the electricity demands of each individual power transmission and distribution system. ‘The foreeast shown in ‘Table 4-11 which PLN-Pusat made for the province's electricity demand based on the above factors is re- considered in this study from a more practical viewpoint and electricity demand forecast is earcied out. Major premises are as shown in Table 4-12, and methodology of analysis is same as that applied to Jambi City and surrounding areas as mentioned previously.sages gesges 28 age SET PEE SRET HT SeuNSTy au » 220 68 TRS (ap) “TOMposg Bsa ST SZT x) 8p teeTaesesso7 rh oe (3) 90my uxp0z9 18 FSP (Uap) “dans 0D. aaTE eI] vr zee sr (x) 2984 etaog S088 UL ged Hse BOS 8 BLT SUT SRT Bua) “dams0y Szoxe 0 i rs 8S. 00 (4s9) Bsang aazadeg soq3@g TeysASMpIT (wo ‘Brom aay wena 2s409 01098 4 “er (x) 2904 Yas039 8 1 re (3) 93my waa0ay (ao ea opsey uanyTas09 antag (x) 290y anos (aap) “@ensuop 23033 (aug) “amsuo 37mq S Besges $ 20039 oprerdog o}2EG TeTIUAPTSE 1861 s866T 986 a eh 9s vi ¥8i 0°08 3°31 ve so bu ir o 1 és 4 7 4 7 gag gos! 68 e sh SHE uss -968T 9682 6BT BET (W-T 9589) svoay Surpunoamg pus quer jo ys¥oaIoZ pueueg Aono ¢-P PGE 4-259 5 oor 8 89 8 gas Le oss ad oer vn sat oe, orgs om oe oa 9°96 ou ath sw (3-@ aseQ) svary Bu;punoums pue AND iquiep Jo ysODJO UBM KONA t-p ABL 4-26 {uag)*densuog 100g (¢.01)saaunsu0g Jo “oy‘Table 4-11 Blectricity Demand Forecast of Jambi Province by PLN Pusat Fiscal Yeer 19eSe—198GH «1987198888180 ASD) 1992 1983 19k 9S 88S 9ST 18899820 Ueber Population (10°3) DLS — 51.0" 266.8 27.0 28T.G 298.6 310.0828 OLA HB.9 950. 918,.9 988.2 HOBO B.A Household size 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 $ 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 ovsehold (10°3) 5 A SBA SASS 6.0 HA HB DB BBB HD Ho, of Consuners (10°9) 1s WO HS Bl MB MBS ST SHS BULLS 1.3 8D Blestrific Ratio (8) BS HS BT UST ST SSH TA BBD BTS Ualt Consumption HE) 1016.3 1,004 1040.4 1010-4 1,040.4 1,050.8 1,081.9 1079 1,082.6 1,099.5 LAD ALISA 126.6 1187.9 1449.2 1,160.7 Brerey Consueption (GH) ma us "mb "98 Tm A 8 AS ATS E867 80 nT 8.9 a BS fra Popalation (10°3) 1,452.6 1,SA 1,561.8 1614.1 1,688.00 1,720.7 1,761.2 1,840.7 1,889.4 1,999.9 1,990.5 2,080.1 2,097.0 2,152.2 2,208.9 2,267.0 ouselold Size 5 8 5 5 8 8 5 5 5 s 5 5 5 5 5 5 Household (10°3) 225 M3 SA BH MALT M562 UBL TT.S BHT. SHB OBE AHA Yo, of Consneers (10°2) TS 89 15 22ST: SE ATMOS aD Electrific Ratio (8) 2 298 Ok 8B AP 4S AS SOB GR GB TD 81 RT 88 alt Consumption {KM sm 500 50D St] 50000 5000] 0050050 500 50D 500 fergy Consnaption (6h) AT 4452 BL 68 7.8 BB 8B BMS NS 192 A Restdentlal Popalation (10°3) 1,01 1,168.4 1,828.7 1,891.1 1,855.6 2,022.2 2,091.2 2,262.5 2,208.5 2,286.2 2,980.7 2,417.0 2,486.1 2,885.2 2,627.3 2,701.3 Grorth Rate (3) aad Toe a4 a 84 sa ne ee kk 2k ke Blectrific Reto (6) e433 LNT SNE SGD Ho. of Consieers (10°3) BS 28 0 445.7 SHH SG TB BEG 82.0 100.0 108.7 18.2 Unit Consuaption (xn) 900.) 894.4 BRT.) BLA 816.) BTL ABS BEF U.S BELT 888.2 MOK. 908.0989. 95.0 ‘neray Consveption (Gib) 6.0 BA BHA MZ BE SS SBA T_T BT 1K.S BG NA 100.018 Connercia} Ho, of Consuners $490 9,826 4,221 4,655 S17 5,666 6,25) 8,885,607 9,568 20,790 12,08 196496 15,464 17,718 Blastisity wea an ee ae ea LLM Grovth fate of Sector GHP (3) 4.87 3.573.823.8283. 8.82 AZ SBS Energy Consuuption (68) 117-82 BT 8.38 SBT BST BGO Public & Other Yo of Consuaers 1,085 1,255 1,891,882 1,711,891 240702261 6S 2,685 2,925 9,182 SAL 8,6) Aa HAT Constituent Fatio 08 08 0.808) '88 0.888080 OB Energy Conseaption (68h) 64M 7B 8S 8199 HUTS Industrial ho. of Consueers ee | a, a Elastisity Hel EHP efit EEE eee Eee al eee eIGeeeet Hla EEE Erte CEERI eee A Leet] PEP ene eer eLSdee EP Lee LEE AGL Grovth Rete of Sector GMP (3) B28 SSS 8S 88ST HTT SHE S88 Captive Enerey (Gi) 00 003.08... 0.8 Energy Conseaption (6th) OS 8 2 SBS STO BSS HSB NOLAN ‘otal fo. of Consuners (10°3) BS Bl TT BOGS. GBT. 08.708 Enerey Consnaption (G¥h) 0.2 5.0 Gl 88S HDS. 118 ATL. 18H. 2B TELS Grosth Fate (3) m3 7 Ml BS BL 28 es 22881010 LossesePlant Users (3) M1 BS BS OS OS 1S DSSS SBS nergy Probict ons (Gi) 0.5 0.319.822 ZG TY SLRS MTT TL 8.8150 MLE Lo3é Factores (3) 43 21 BHT BD SRT BSH. HST SSBB Feak Loades (18) wt 6 83 TST MET TF 8B # Aotual ‘tober 1987 A Target, sv Assumed for Uns study by JICA study tean,‘Table 4-12 Major Assumptions for Electricity Demand Forecast of Jambi Province case Lor Middle igh PUA Fusat Growh Rate of Population (& p.a.) 1985 3. 37 at wa. 1986 46 46 46 ate 1987 34 34 MM 34 1988-1992 40 40 40 a4 1s91-2000 40 40 40 28 Growth Rate of Residential Consusers (% p.a.) 1985 28.2 28.2 26.2 1986 20.0 20.9 20.0 1987 0 Ws 18.0 1988 8.0 9.0 10.0 1989-1993 8.0 3.0 10.0 1994-1995 20 8.0 9.0 1998-2000 10 8.0 30 Target Unit Consuaption Rate of Electricity in 2000 (8h/Tear/lousehold) 925 5 925, 925, ConstLtuent Ratio of Corsercial Sector 08 07 08 a. Constituent Ratio'of Pablic Sector ar 0.8 09 0.8 Captive Energy of Industrial Sector (G¥h/Tear) 1987 3.0 3.0 10 3.0 000 0.8 18 0.8 08 Energy Growth Rate In Industrial Sector excluding Captive Power (% p.2.) 40 6.0 3.0 AA, Losses & Plant Use (8) 1987 18.5 18.5 BS 13.54 1988-1997 18.0-19.5 18.0-19.518.0-19.5, 18.0-18.58 1998-2000, 13.5 13.8 BS 13.54 oad Factor (%) 1987-1998, 88.3 53.9 38.9 53.34 1994-1998 33.3 53.3 53.5 53.34 1999-2000 58.9 53.9 53.3 53.98 Note : + Actual +» This flgare should be corrected. These Clgures were assumed for thls study by JICA study teas. 4-28‘A compilation of the peak loads in the electricity demand forecast results of three cases (Low case, Middle case, and High case) based on the preconditions mentioned in (a) is shown in Figure 4-4, ‘This demand forecast selected Middie Case as the most probable among the three cases. The main reasons are the following: » 2) 3) As in the case of the electricity demand of Jambi City and surrounding areas, the — industrial-sector electricity demand has the greatest impact on. the electricity demand of Jambi Province, ‘This value is determined in this forecast by estimates of captive energy and the growth rate of the electricity demand excluding captive energy, also. Since the industrial sector of Jambi City and surrounding areas accounts for over 90% of Jambi Province's industrial sector, a 6.0% annual growth rate of electricity demand exelud- ing coptive energy, resembling that of Jambi City and sur fireas, seems an appropriate long term view. Among the three cases, Low Case was established based on the most conservative standpoints on all factors of determination, so a more realistic estimate is probably lerger. A constituent ratio 0.7 for the commercial sector, and 0.8 for the public and other sector appears appropriate, considering the averages of past statistics shown in Table 4-1SouIADId IqUIEP Jo ySed9I0] (PROT YEE) PURUAG IOMEG ONDE ¥-p OMAT (eeaq 1¥9814) 0002 6661 86ST LOSI 9661 GE6I bSGI E861 2661 1681 085i 6861 836! 2861 yesng Wid B5eD WOT 252) S1PPLN © 0°0b 0°09 CaM) 0°08 00 4-30413 4) Although the number of residential sector electricity consumers increased by an average annual growth rate of 29.9% as shown in ‘Table 4-1, this value for the whole province Is expected to be a little under the PLN Pusat estimate, influenced by the decline of the growth rate in the urban area. Table 4-13 shows the electricity demand forecast re~ sults of Jambi Province based on Middle Case. Blectricity Supply and Demand Balance Forecast In this section, a forecast of the electricity supply and demand balance of Jambi City and surrounding areas which relates directly to this project is first made, followed by a forecast of the demand hypothesis for the power plant in this project. Then, the electricity supply and demand balance forecast of Jambi Province ts made based ‘on the above considerations. (1) Electricity Supply and Demand Balance Forecast for this Project As mentioned in "4-1-2 Electricity Demand Forecast; (1) Electricity Demand Forecast for this Project", cases 1-M and 2-L have the highest probability in terms of the expected demand for this project. ‘They consequently were used as the bases for a forecast of the demand hypothesis for the power plant made in the course of determining the electricity supply and demand balance forecast. ‘The demand hypothesis for the power plant was made this way because the transmission and distribution systems of Jambi City and surrounding areas form a loop by achievement of a parailel-running operation of the power plants, and thé balance of electricity supply and demand within this loop could therefore be determined en masse.